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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Northern Hemisphere Snow Drought in Earth System Model Simulations and ERA5‐Land Data in 1980–2014

Abstract Low snow levels over the past few decades and predictions of a low‐to‐no snow future have spurred research into snow droughts, which pose a threat to water security and management. Systematic data‐model comparisons of snow drought have been lacking, hindering our understanding of the drivers of snow drought in the past. To address this gap, we analyzed snow drought events using standardized snow water equivalent index derived from monthly results of four numerical experiments using the E3SM Land Model (ELM) and ERA5‐Land data during the period of 1980–2014. Additionally, we compared snow drought duration calculated from models with those from the ERA5‐Land data during selected El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. The numerical experiments were conducted with ELM driven by two prescribed atmospheric forcings, and with the coupled land‐atmosphere configuration of E3SM with and without plant hydraulics scheme feedback. Analysis reveals that 20%–30% of snow droughts occur due to factors other than above‐normal temperature and low snowfall, such as low soil moisture, warm soil temperature, and low relative humidity, etc., especially in high latitudes (50° North). Furthermore, our study highlights the exacerbating effect of ENSO events on snow drought conditions in various regions, despite some discrepancies between model and ERA5‐Land results. We also identified limitations of the coupled land‐atmosphere models in our current configuration in capturing the spatial patterns of snow droughts. This study underscores the challenge of predicting and mitigating snow drought and the need for a comprehensive understanding of the factors contributing to snow drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Space‐Time Causal Discovery in Earth System Science: A Local Stencil Learning Approach

Causal discovery tools enable scientists to infer meaningful relationships from observational data, spurring advances in fields as diverse as biology, economics, and climate science. Despite these successes, the application of causal discovery to space-time systems remains immensely challenging due to the high-dimensional nature of the data. For example, in climate sciences, modern observational temperature records over the past few decades regularly measure thousands of locations around the globe. To address these challenges, we introduce Causal Space-Time Stencil Learning (CaStLe), a novel meta-algorithm for discovering causal structures in complex space-time systems. CaStLe leverages regularities in local space-time dependencies to learn governing global dynamics. This local perspective eliminates spurious confounding and drastically reduces sample complexity, making space-time causal discovery practical and effective. For causal discovery, CaStLe flexibly accepts any appropriately adapted time series causal discovery algorithm to recover local causal structures. These advances enable causal discovery of geophysical phenomena that were previously unapproachable, including non-periodic, transient phenomena such as volcanic eruption plumes. Regularities in local space-time dependencies are transformed into informative spatial replicates, which actually improve CaStLe's performance when applied to ever-larger spatial grids. We successfully apply CaStLe to discover the atmospheric dynamics governing the climate response to the 1991 Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption. We provide validation experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of CaStLe over existing causal-discovery frameworks on a range of geophysics-inspired benchmarks while identifying the method's limitations and domains where its assumptions may not hold.

Nichol, J. Jake [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque,↗
DOE OSTI2022

The black carbon cycle and its role in the Earth system

Black carbon (BC) is produced by incomplete combustion of biomass by wildfires and burning of fossil fuels. BC is environmentally persistent over centuries to millennia, sequestering carbon in marine and terrestrial environments. However, its production, storage and dynamics, and therefore its role in the broader carbon cycling during global change, are poorly understood. Here, in this Review, we discuss BC cycling across the land-to-ocean continuum. Wildfires are the main source of BC, producing 128 ± 84 teragrams per year. Negative climate–BC feedbacks could arise as wildfire increases with anthropogenic warming, producing more BC, which in turn will sequester carbon, but the magnitude of these effects are unknown. Most BC is stored in terrestrial systems with some transported to the ocean via rivers and the atmosphere. However, the oceanic BC budget is not balanced, with known BC removal fluxes exceeding BC inputs. We demonstrate these observed inconsistencies using a simple ocean box model, which highlights key areas of future research. Measurements of BC mineralization and export rates along the land-to-ocean continuum and quantification of previously unexplored sources of oceanic BC are needed to close the global BC budget.

aquatic↗
DOE OSTI2022

Energy Exascale Earth System Model v2.0.1

First patch release of v2.0.0 Changes since v2.0.0 [Important change] Fix ocean threading bug seen in debug cases on Chrysalis with Intel 20.0.4. Was introduced around time of v2.0.0 tag. Does not change v2.0.0 answers on Chrysalis because those didn't use threading or debugging. [EAM] Add semi-lagrangian tracer transport for theta-l (F90 and C++), add new algorithm for finding tropopause, add DSCREAM to allow v2 and SCREAM settings in same code such as adjust_ps [EAM-MMF] 60L default, allow C++ back end of RRTMGP (EAM too). [EAMxx] add nu-top functionality, fix forcing functor, add ttype9 and dcmip2012 tests 2.1, 2.2, and 3 HOMME: remove obsolete remap algs, option to specify dynamics alg indep of tracer, new sponge layer, add imex tests [ELM] Add topography-based subgrid (topounits), add FATES-ELM Nitro., Phos. and CH4 coupling, add land-use ts for NARRM, add lulc for SSP3 RCP7, Fix nutrient fertilization exp test and carbon isotope flux, Fix xactive lnd dry deposition, add lake water storage option, fix plant hydraulics 2d params, fix carbon budget calc, fix soil nutrient conc. bug, fix mosart dam bug, add test for new ELM, MOSART features, fix bug in O3 dry dep stomatal resistances, fix plant hydraulics restart BFB error, update mkmapdata. [MOSART] fix bug for reading the latitude from an unstructured input file, fix oversat in bubble test. [MPAS-ocean] Add CFC11, CFC12 tracers, add 2D spherical transport tests, fix del4 tracer mixing, add MARBL ocean tracer mixing, modify harmonic analysis options, add GPU port of vmix routines, fix calc of ML-averaged BV freq. [MPAS-seaice] Change extents of initial polar disks for oRRS18to6v3 grid, fix ice BGC with MARBL, update spherical test cases, fix DON coupling, Remove Cf from sea ice constants. [MPAS-landice] add CRYO1850-4xCO2 compset [CIME] add GCP, ANL GCE, Spock, Perlmutter, deprecate config_compilers.xml, fix and clean-up cmake macros, fix slurm bindings, refactor CIME internal testing, cleanup SCORPIO perf data, allow position independent compset naming, [also] update v2 benchmarking suite, extend e3sm_prod with throughput and memory checks

E3SM Project, DOE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Energy Exascale Earth System Model v2.0.2

Second patch release of v2.0.0 Changes since v2.0.1 [Important change] Add and update SSP370 and SSP585 cases, add tests, fix use-case files, Change ocean and sea-ice IC for ARRM60to10. [EAM] allow thetaxx as a CAM_TARGET, enable northamericax4v1pg2_WC14to60E2r3 for AMIP, fix ndrop initialization, allow up to 15 history files. [EAMxx] allow use of readnl [EAM-MMF] allow transient SST case for C++ MMF, remove specific task/thread count for ESMT test, modify the variance transport diagnostic, reorg tests, [HOMME] Allow optional sponge layer. [ELM] add 2 land-atm compsets, update FATES to API 17.0.0, allow FATES sp mode, allow ELM harvest to drive FATES harvest, fix memleaks, reduce test build times, modified parameters for miscanthus and switchgrass based on calibration [MPAS-Ocean] turn on ocean BGC in BGC cases, fix interface locations for 60L PHC grid, add mode spec to conservation check streams, allow oRRS18to6v3 grid to run with JRA, update ocean and sea ice ICs for ARRM60to10 (needed for v2), GPU port of thickness tendency, add CMPASO-JRA1p4, [MPAS framework] Add new reproducible global sum module for MPAS components, Add mostRecentAccessTime attribute to streams [MPAS-landice] Update MALI version and Greenland mesh [MPAS-seaice] add single-cell test case, fix BGC restart, Adds omp critical directives for ice warnings seen on cori. [CIME] Fix component namelist creation bugs when NINST>1, add OpenACC, OpenMP and CXX GPU tests, fix nonBFB tests, stop using config_compilers, reduce ELM test build times with shared executable, update OpenMPI on Chrysalis. fix baseline handling, provenance handling with update to cime6.0.33, also use component-specific config_pes files and add the ones from master [Machine updates] cori modules after maint, Chrysalis to OpenMPI-4.1.3 [run_e3sm] replace default case name and group. [Externals] update SCORPIO to 1.3.2

ECP↗
DOE OSTI2021

Collaborative Research: Improved Efficiency and Coupling of the Radiation Code in the ACME Earth System Model (Final Report)

The complexity of radiative transfer, its importance to the exchange of energy in the climate system, and its high computational cost establishes importance of an accurate and efficient radiative transfer parameterization for climate simulation. Previous work by the proposing team at AER led to the development of the radiation code, RRTMG, which has been widely accepted by the global modeling community as a fast and accurate advancement over the previous generation of radiation codes. It has been in use in the NCAR CESM for many years, and it has been implemented in the initial version the DOE E3SM model. However, its computational cost remains high relative to other components in part due to its complexity and to its inefficient use of modern optimization strategies, and this project helped address this limitation for the code’s application in E3SM. Under other funding, the Investigators of this project led an effort to develop a high-performance broadband radiation code, called RTE+RRTMGP, which is a completely restructured code that will take advantage of modern computational capabilities to enhance its performance while retaining the strengths and accuracy of the original code. Designed to perform over a range of computer architectures, RTE+RRTMGP makes extensive use of Fortran 2003 features to improve both its efficiency and its use of memory. RTE+RRTMGP is expected to be adopted in the next generation of RTE+RRTMGP. This project allowed for advancements to the code’s computational capabilities and adding new and enhanced features. This included revising RTE+RRTMGP to run on GPU processors, analysis of and improvements to the code’s timing, modifying the gas optics in RRTMGP to increase the code’s accuracy, extensive validation of computed fluxes, heating rates and forcings, generating a cloud optical property and vertical sampling capabilities for RTE+RRTMGP, implementing a fast and accurate longwave scattering capability, and groundwork for the inclusion of a capability to specify solar variability. Many of the accomplishment in this project necessitated significant collaboration with the E3SM development team. The result of this project was optimization of a key physical component (radiative transfer calculations) of E3SM, directly supporting E3SM’s overarching global modeling objectives. More broadly, this project provided overall advancements in the use of radiative transfer calculations in atmospheric modeling and simulation, particularly for climate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

In Situ Inference for Earth System Predictability

An understanding of future evolution in precipitation extremes is critical to numerous DOE mission questions. Extreme events are by nature short time-scale events that are difficult to diagnose in available model data. Accurate modeling of extreme events necessarily requires high spatial resolution at the storm scale locally. However, the environment in which storms grow is dependent on global, remote, processes. These complex spatiotemporal relationships are impossible to diagnose at resolutions required to accurately model storms responsible for extreme precipitation. At exascale, climate simulations will produce results at fine enough resolution to investigate these relationships. However, the resulting data from these simulations will be far too large to save for post-simulation analysis. We advocate for fitting statistical models inside the simulations as they run, a context known as in situ, which will facilitate scientific investigations using the full fine-scale data stream. Figure 1 shows an example of the type of model we could consider, a Bayesian hierarchical spatial regression model. Precipitation extremes at each grid cell are modeled using extreme value distributions. Since extremes are rare, fitting models to individual grid cells can result in high variance and poor estimates. Instead, the model can be made more robust by smoothing the parameters of the extreme value model across space. Additionally, the parameters themselves can be functionally linked to other variables elsewhere in the simulation. Thus, we can use the fine-scale data to build more robust models for extremes that link extreme behavior to other climate patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Grand Challenge "Uncertainty Project" to Accelerate Advances in Earth System Predictability: AI-Enabled Concepts and Applications

This proposal is emerging from GISS ModelE3 ESM development in the area of cloud physics, so we begin with an example of research needs/gaps from that work. Here, some of our greatest development concerns arise where we lack fundamental process-level understanding, as in ice formation. Namely, it is currently unclear what is the main process that is forming the majority of ice crystals in commonly occurring convection, apparently via secondary ice production at warm temperatures. We are keenly awaiting laboratory data for candidate mechanisms, which is not yet in hand to crucially establish their efficiency. Our progress is also hampered by a lack of uncertainty characterization in currently available measurements of ice crystal number size distributions. Furthermore, the same multiplication process may be responsible for a majority of ice crystals in many extratropical mixed-phase clouds, whose variable representation in CMIP6 ESMs may be a leading cause of differences in cloud phase feedback and ECS. Yet we have been required to deliver an ESM with the cloud physics knowledge at hand. The proposed grand challenge project is AI-enabled via application of machine learning (ML) to climate model and observational data streams (focal area 3), and applications include AI-guided observing system design and model/component/parameterization selection (areas 1 and 2). The project is structurally agnostic as to whether model or observing system components use AI approaches or not, but uncertainties must be estimated and propagatable in both.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗