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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

EFCOG Human Performance Improvement Task Group: Task 20-2, Asking Better Error Precursor Questions for Effective Job Planning, Pre-Job Briefs, and Event Investigations

The second principle of human performance states: “error-likely situations are predictable, manageable, and preventable.” An error-likely situation comes into play when task-related factors exceed the capabilities of the individual, creating a mismatch at the point when the individual is “touching” either the physical or the paper plant. The simple presence of adverse conditions cannot be error-likely unless a specific action is to occur within that set of adverse conditions.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Implementation Guide for Minimum Required Error Codes in Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure

With the growing adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs), there is an increasing need for a reliable EV charging infrastructure. To help meet this need, the report “Recommendations for Minimum Required Error Codes for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure,” recommends a set of minimum required error codes (MRECs) and their functional and responsibility classification. Charger manufacturers, charging station operators, EV manufacturers, and other stakeholders in the North American market are encouraged to uniformly adopt the MRECs to enhance EV charging error reporting, interpretation, and diagnostics. This document serves as a guide to enable uniform implementation of the MRECs using the Open Charge Point Protocol (OCPP).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Characterizing the Impact of Heliostat Size, Focus Method, and Optical Error on Concentrating Solar Tower Systems

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) tower systems use heliostat fields to direct solar energy to a central receiver. The efficiency of the heliostat field is crucial for achieving thermal generation targets and is also the largest cost component, making up 30-40% of total project costs. Developers face a tradeoff: reducing heliostat costs may decrease optical performance and increase land use, while improving performance could raise manufacturing costs (through higher precision). The optimal design depends on land, labor, and manufacturing costs. Additionally, inherent performance limitations exist - optical errors result in larger solar images as heliostats move farther from the receiver, increasing spillage and attenuation losses. Ultimately, there exists a point where receiver design power can no longer be achieved at design conditions for a given solar field area. This point depends on key heliostat field design parameters including field layout, heliostats size, focus method, and heliostat optical error. In this work, we explore and characterize the performance trade-offs between heliostat size, focus method, and optical error using Monte Carlo ray-tracing simulations using NREL's high performance computing resources. The goal of this fundamental investigation is to understand practical heliostat design performance impacts that can be used to produce more cost-effective heliostat fields while still achieving plant thermal generation targets.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of the Four-Dimensional Ensemble-Variational Hybrid Data Assimilation with Self-Consistent Regional Background Error Covariance for Improved Hurricane Intensity Forecasts

The feasibility of a hurricane initialization framework based on the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)-based four-dimensional ensemble-variational (GSI-4DEnVar) hybrid data assimilation system for the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF) model is evaluated in this study. The system considers the temporal evolution of error covariances via the use of four-dimensional ensemble perturbations that are provided by high-resolution, self-consistent HWRF ensemble forecasts. It is different from the configuration of the GSI-based three-dimensional ensemble-variational (GSI-3DEnVar) hybrid data assimilation system, similar to that used in the operational HWRF, which employs background error covariances provided by coarser-resolution global ensembles from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) ensemble Kalman filtering data assimilation system. In addition, our proposed initialization framework discards the empirical intensity correction in the vortex initialization package that is employed by the GSI-3DEnVar initialization framework in operational HWRF. Data assimilation and numerical simulation experiments for Hurricanes Joaquin (2015), Patricia (2015), and Matthew (2016) are conducted during their intensity changes. The impacts of two initialization frameworks on the HWRF analyses and forecasts are compared. It is found that GSI-4DEnVar leads to a reduction in track, minimum sea level pressure (MSLP), and maximum surface wind (MSW) forecast errors in all of the HWRF simulations, compared with the GSI-3DEnVar initialization framework. With assimilating high-resolution observations within the hurricane inner-core region, GSI-4DEnVar can produce the initial hurricane intensity reasonably well without the empirical vortex intensity correction. Further diagnoses with Hurricane Joaquin indicate that GSI-4DEnVar can significantly alleviate the imbalances in the initial conditions and enhance the performance of the data assimilation and subsequent hurricane intensity and precipitation forecasts

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

JWST Noise Floor. II. Systematic Error Sources in JWST NIRCam Time Series

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) holds great promise for characterizing atmospheres of transiting exoplanets, potentially providing insights into Earth-sized planets within the habitable zones of M-dwarf host stars if photon-limited performance can be achieved. Here, we discuss the systematic error sources that are expected to be present in grism time-series observations with the NIRCam instrument. We find that pointing jitter and high-gain antenna moves in addition to the detectors’ subpixel crosshatch patterns will produce relatively small variations (less than 6 parts per million, ppm). The time-dependent aperture losses due to thermal instabilities in the optics can also be kept to below 2 ppm. To achieve these low noise values, it is important to employ a sufficiently large (more than 11) extraction aperture. Persistence due to charge-trapping will have a minor (less than 3 ppm) effect on the time series 20 minutes into an exposure and is expected to play a much smaller role than it does for the Hubble Space Telescope WFC3 detectors. We expect detector temperature fluctuations to contribute less than 3 ppm. In total, our estimated noise floor from known systematic error sources is only 9 ppm per visit. We urge caution, however, because unknown systematic error sources could be present in flight and will only be measurable on astrophysical sources such as quiescent stars. We find that reciprocity failure may introduce a perennial instrument offset at the 40 ppm level, so corrections may be needed when a multi-instrument multi-observatory spectrum is stitched together over wide wavelength ranges.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analyzing count data with measurement error

In this article, we analyze observed count data such as the number of defects in a steel product where the observed counts are the true counts measured with errors. We account for the measurement error by using a measurement error model based on a latent lognormal (LLN) distribution. We consider making inference about a single population (e.g., from samples of a production lot) and a regression model (e.g., from runs of a designed experiment), where the measurement system properties are known, that is, the parameters of the LLN distribution are known. Then, we consider simultaneous inference for the single population and regression model as well as the measurement system. We demonstrate the proposed methodology with both simulated and real observed counts.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Superselection rules, quantum error correction, and quantum chromodynamics

We investigate the relationship between superselection rules and quantum error correcting codes. We demonstrate that the existence of a superselection rule implies the Knill-Laflamme condition in quantum error correction. As an example, we examine the code built from quantum chromodynamics, where the proton and neutron states in the model are explored as different superselection sectors that protect logical information. Finally we comment on topological quantum error correcting codes and supersymmetric quantum field theory within this framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Global error analysis of the Chebyshev rational approximation method

The Chebyshev rational approximation method (CRAM) has become a widely adopted method for solving nuclear depletion problems. Therefore, understanding CRAM’s accuracy is important for the safe operation of nuclear power plants. This article performs a global error analysis of CRAM and finds that, as the length of the time step approaches zero, the relative error measured between the exact and CRAM solutions at a fixed end time approaches one and infinity for even and odd orders, respectively; for intermediate time step sizes, a minimum in relative error is observed. Finally, we show that the reason for CRAM’s behavior is that the method is inconsistent. Two best practices for using CRAM, derived from these results, are: (1) use CRAM order 16 or higher, (2) if necessary, increase the CRAM order when multiphysics coupling requires smaller time steps.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ice storage model-predictive control in an office building with PV: scenario, error and sensitivity analysis

Thermal energy storage (TES) can enable more building-sited renewable electricity generation and lower utility bill costs for buildings owners and occupants, especially when there are high demand and variable time-of-use (TOU) charges. A model predictive control (MPC) strategy can offer additional savings over a schedule-based control with added complexity and reliance on forecasts. Here, this study examines savings for medium office buildings with chiller plants in three locations with building-installed solar photovoltaics (PV) to understand the impact of MPC. Control setpoints are fixed by a schedule-based control or optimized by nonlinear MPC. These control setpoints are actuated within EnergyPlus building models to simulate the utility cost of the chiller plant. NLP solutions can be unstable or unrealistic, but our results show that by regularizing the NLP, the solutions can be reasonably followed by the building model. MPC models make simplifications that lead to errors once the controller is participating in and changing the operation of the building. These errors average 9 % across the cases, showing that the most important parts of the system are represented. The no-thermal load costs are computed to show that the optimization can in some cases achieve both the minimum TOU and minimum monthly demand costs by demand management while reducing TOU energy costs by energy arbitrage. The MPC saves 35–66 % in the annual chiller plant operating costs, which is an additional savings above the schedule by 1–33 %. PV and TES are complementary and mostly independent, but a load with PV often results in better performance for the schedule. Our case study and sensitivity analysis show the importance of modeling and optimization for complex rates, but also the circumstances wherein a simpler strategy achieves the same performance with less potential for error.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Representativity error scaling of models of the high temperature test facility

Error scaling is a critical step toward the validation of modeling capabilities for high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs). Extensive effort is being made to bring HTGRs into the validation basis of numerous thermal-hydraulics codes. Here, this paper demonstrates how systems-level codes can be leveraged to perform error scaling analyses between an experimental facility and a plant-to-be facility. Specifically, we focus on two conduction cooldown experiments from the High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) and the General Atomics 350 MW th modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (MHTGR-350). The error scaling methodology employed in this study is representativity, which in the context of this work was used to quantify how well experiments captured the physics of the plant facility by comparing sensitivity vectors between the two facilities. In addition, two different RELAP5–3D models of the HTTF were included in the comparison to determine if modeling methodologies notably impact the representativity results. The key figures of merit are the maximum block temperature and the coolant outlet temperature. The time-dependent maximum block temperature had a low representativity of below 0.1 for both models across both transients. The coolant outlet temperature had a higher representativity of around 0.6 for both models during the pressurized conduction cooldown, but it was below 0.2 for the depressurized conduction cooldown. Overall, the HTTF experiments were not representative of the transients in the MHTGR-350. However, these results can play a significant role in informing future potential experiments for HTGR systems that iterate on what the HTTF accomplished.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Towards sharp error analysis of extended Lagrangian molecular dynamics

The extended Lagrangian molecular dynamics (XLMD) method provides a useful framework for reducing the computational cost of a class of molecular dynamics simulations with constrained latent variables. The XLMD method relaxes the constraints by introducing a fictitious mass ε for the latent variables and solving a set of singularly perturbed ordinary differential equations. While favorable numerical performance of XLMD has been demonstrated in several different contexts in the past decade, mathematical analysis of the method remains scarce. Here, we propose the first error analysis of the XLMD method in the context of a classical polarizable force field model. While the dynamics with respect to the atomic degrees of freedom are general and nonlinear, the key mathematical simplification of the polarizable force field model is that the constraints on the latent variables are given by a linear system of equations. We prove that when the initial value of the latent variables is compatible in a sense that we define, XLMD converges as the fictitious mass ε is made small with $\mathscr{O}$(ε) error for the atomic degrees of freedom and with $\mathscr{O}$($\sqrt{ε}$) error for the latent variables, when the dimension of the latent variable d' is 1. Furthermore, when the initial value of the latent variables is improved to be optimally compatible in a certain sense, we prove that the convergence rate can be improved to $\mathscr{O}$(ε) for the latent variables as well. Numerical results verify that both estimates are sharp not only for d'=1, but also for arbitrary d'. In the setting of general d', we do obtain convergence, but with the non-sharp rate of $\mathscr{O}$($\sqrt{ε}$) for both the atomic and latent variables.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Goal-oriented a-posteriori estimation of model error as an aid to parameter estimation

In this work, a Bayesian model calibration framework is presented that utilizes goal-oriented a-posterior error estimates in quantities of interest (QoIs) for classes of high-fidelity models characterized by PDEs. It is shown that for a large class of computational models, it is possible to develop a computationally inexpensive procedure for calibrating parameters of high-fidelity models of physical events when the parameters of low-fidelity (surrogate) models are known with acceptable accuracy. The main ingredients in the proposed model calibration scheme are goal-oriented a-posteriori estimates of error in QoIs computed using a so-called lower fidelity model compared to those of an uncalibrated higher fidelity model. The estimates of error in QoIs are used to define likelihood functions in Bayesian inversion analysis. A standard Bayesian approach is employed to compute the posterior distribution of model parameters of high-fidelity models. As applications, parameters in a quasi-linear second-order elliptic boundary-value problem (BVP) are calibrated using a second-order linear elliptic BVP. In a second application, parameters of a tumor growth model involving nonlinear time-dependent PDEs are calibrated using a lower fidelity linear tumor growth model with known parameter values.

A-posterior estimates↗
DOE OSTI2023

Energy management systems for forecasted demand error compensation using hybrid energy storage system in nanogrid

This paper proposes an energy management system (EMS) for nanogrids to balance the power supply and forecasted demand in consideration of forecasting errors arising from high instantaneous demand. The proposed EMS employs a power-balancing optimization process for forecasted demand and a reference power modulation strategy for forecasting errors. This power-balancing optimization utilizes nanogrid sources, such as photovoltaics, fuel cells, and batteries, to meet forecasted demand and a supercapacitor charging process to overcome issues with a low energy density. The proposed reference power modulation strategy is utilized to allocate power from a hybrid energy storage system consisting of a battery and supercapacitor in order to compensate for forecasting errors. In addition, this proposed strategy considers battery and supercapacitor constraints such as the power changing rate and total power limitations. Further, the power-balancing optimization process also operates at faster sampling rate than the reference power modulation process in order to improve the computational efficiency. The performance of the proposed EMS is evaluated using real data obtained from the Korea Electric Power Exchange.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimized Auxiliary Functions for Robust Mitigation of Finite-Size Errors in Periodic Hybrid Density Functional Theory

When calculating properties of periodic systems at the thermodynamic limit (TDL), the dominant source of finite size error (FSE) arises from the long-range Coulomb interaction, and can manifest as a slowly converging quadrature error when approximating an integral in the reciprocal space by a finite sum. The singularity subtraction (SS) method offers a systematic approach for reducing this quadrature error and thus the FSE. Here, in this work, we first investigate the performance of the SS method in the simplest setting, aiming at reducing the FSE in exact exchange calculations by subtracting the Coulomb contribution with a single, adjustable Gaussian auxiliary function. We demonstrate that a simple fitting method can robustly estimate the optimal Gaussian width and leads to rapid convergence toward the TDL. Furthermore, we suggest new forms of the auxiliary function, whose optimal parameters could also be determined through least-squares fitting. For a range of semiconductors and insulators, the proposed auxiliary functions achieve robust, millihartree-level accuracy in hybrid density functional theory calculations, including cases with sparse k-meshes and large basis sets.

Quiton, Stephen Jon [University of California, Ber↗
DOE OSTI2026

How to Minimize Faradaic Efficiency Error in Electrochemical CO 2 Reduction for Gas Products

Faradaic efficiency (FE) is an important metric for evaluating electrochemical processes, such as carbon dioxide reduction, that is often used for performance comparisons. Although the equation to calculate FE is well-known, details needed to yield accurate values are often overlooked, potentially leading to errors exceeding 100%. Avoiding any errors is crucial for drawing correct conclusions, especially during a catalysis optimization process. Factors with high potential for FE errors include incorrect mass flow rates and temperature values, imprecise gas chromatography calibrations, and uncorrected gas viscosities, while factors with less potential are also identified. In conclusion, this manuscript presents FE calculation guidelines intended for both newcomers and experts in the field of electrochemical fuel production.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dephasing and error dynamics affecting a singlet-triplet qubit during coherent spin shuttling

Quantum information transport over micron to millimeter scale distances is critical for the operation of practical quantum processors based on spin qubits. One method of achieving a long-range interaction is by coherent electron spin shuttling through an array of silicon quantum dots. In order to execute many shuttling operations with high fidelity, it is essential to understand the dynamics of qubit dephasing and relaxation during the shuttling process in order to mitigate them. However, errors arising after many repeated shuttles are not yet well documented. Here, we probe decay dynamics contributing to dephasing and relaxation of a singlet-triplet qubit during coherent spin shuttling over many N repeated shuttle operations, in a small external magnetic field B 0 ≈ 0−10 mT, and in the absence of a micromagnet. We find that losses are dominated by magnetic dephasing, most visible for small N < 10 3 . However, incoherent spin-flip type shuttle errors become evident for large N > 10 3 . Additionally, we estimate shuttle error rates below 10 −4 out to at least N = 10 3 , representing an encouraging figure for future implementations of spin shuttling to entangle distant qubits.

quantum dots↗
DOE OSTI2023

BEYONDPLANCK X. Planck Low Frequency Instrument frequency maps with sample-based error propagation

We present Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) frequency sky maps derived within the BEYONDPLANCK framework. This framework draws samples from a global posterior distribution that includes instrumental, astrophysical, and cosmological parameters, and the main product is an entire ensemble of frequency sky map samples, each of which corresponds to one possible realization of the various modeled instrumental systematic corrections, including correlated noise, time-variable gain, as well as far sidelobe and bandpass corrections. This ensemble allows for computationally convenient end-to-end propagation of low-level instrumental uncertainties into higher-level science products, including astrophysical component maps, angular power spectra, and cosmological parameters. We show that the two dominant sources of LFI instrumental systematic uncertainties are correlated noise and gain fluctuations, and the products presented here support – for the first time – full Bayesian error propagation for these effects at full angular resolution. We compared our posterior mean maps with traditional frequency maps delivered by the Planck Collaboration, and find generally good agreement. The most important quality improvement is due to significantly lower calibration uncertainties in the new processing, as we find a fractional absolute calibration uncertainty at 70 GHz of Δg 0 /g 0 = 5 x 10 -5 , which is nominally 40 times smaller than that reported by Planck 2018. However, we also note that the original Planck 2018 estimate has a nontrivial statistical interpretation, and this further illustrates the advantage of the new framework in terms of producing self-consistent and well-defined error estimates of all involved quantities without the need of ad hoc uncertainty contributions. We describe how low-resolution data products, including dense pixel-pixel covariance matrices, may be produced from the posterior samples directly, without the need for computationally expensive analytic calculations or simulations. We conclude that posterior-based frequency map sampling provides unique capabilities in terms of low-level systematics modeling and error propagation, and may play an important role for future Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) B-mode experiments aiming at nanokelvin precision.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Error Analysis Toolkit for Binned Counting Experiments

We introduce the MINERvA Analysis Toolkit (MAT), a utility for centralizing the handling of systematic uncertainties in HEP analyses. The fundamental utilities of the toolkit are the MnvHnD, a powerful histogram container class, and the systematic Universe classes, which provide a modular implementation of the many universe error analysis approach. These products can be used stand-alone or as part of a complete error analysis prescription. They support the propagation of systematic uncertainty through all stages of analysis, and provide flexibility for an arbitrary level of user customization. This extensible solution to error analysis enables the standardization of systematic uncertainty definitions across an experiment and a transparent user interface to lower the barrier to entry for new analyzers.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗