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At least 253 records · Page 14

Emergency Generation Asset Positioning for Resilient Transmission Grid Operation: Preprint

In this paper we study a problem of hurricane emergency preparedness via placement of emergency generation assets prior to its strike. We present a two-stage stochastic model for choosing locations and quantities of emergency storage to help support the power grid through a hurricane event. The expectation of losses in our two-stage model is estimated using the sample average approximation. We construct damage scenarios for sample average approximation using WIND Toolkit meteorological data and fragility curves of various electric grid components. We demonstrate the efficacy of our two-stage planning model by simulating operations during Hurricane Dolly on the 2000-bus transmission test system. Our model, coupled with our scenario selection strategy, is effective at mitigating loss of load when compared to a model without emergency generation assets placed prior to an extreme event.

emergency preparedness↗

Scaling Decarbonization Development Innovation with Emerging Community-Based Developers: Preprint

The building real estate development industry is being asked to lead in delivering building decarbonization solutions across the United States. However, creating decarbonized best practices and development innovation while increasing developer diversity and community ownership is often not a primary focus of this sector. To address these issues, we have created an incubator and support ecosystem specifically for the innovation scaling we have found in a leading group of emerging, small-scale developers. These leaders are not just working at the forefront of decarbonized development but addressing diversity and bolstering community generational wealth. We have found that small development firms are the ones who often take risks to innovate and demonstrate despite lacking a specific set of resources or support ecosystems focused on emerging decarbonization developers. Those with the fewest resources are being asked to lead our decarbonization innovation efforts. This paper documents the necessity of a cohort and incubator program to provide a decarbonization-specific ecosystem to support small developers and scale innovation. The incubator creates connections, fosters innovative strategies to access incentives and alternative funding, and assembles resources for small and emerging minority developers with the goal of sustainability and affordability. For instance, collaborative efforts with leading developers and utilities can enable the seamless integration of distributed energy resources through optimal metering and interconnection and significantly reduce the utility cost of electrification, benefiting the utility, the developer, and the tenant economically. The process described in this paper will result in case studies and how-to resources to provide tangible examples of innovation within the emerging development field.

carbon↗

Search for dark QCD with emerging jets in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV

A search for “emerging jets” produced in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV is performed using data collected by the CMS experiment corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb$^{−1}$. This search examines a hypothetical dark quantum chromodynamics (QCD) sector that couples to the standard model (SM) through a scalar mediator. The scalar mediator decays into an SM quark and a dark sector quark. As the dark sector quark showers and hadronizes, it produces long-lived dark mesons that subsequently decay into SM particles, resulting in a jet, known as an emerging jet, with multiple displaced vertices. This search looks for pair production of the scalar mediator at the LHC, which yields events with two SM jets and two emerging jets at leading order. The results are interpreted using two dark sector models with different flavor structures, and exclude mediator masses up to 1950 (1950) GeV for an unflavored (flavor-aligned) dark QCD model. The unflavored results surpass a previous search for emerging jets by setting the most stringent mediator mass exclusion limits to date, while the flavor-aligned results provide the first direct mediator mass exclusion limits to date.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Equivalence of emergent de Sitter spaces from conformal field theory

Recently, two groups have made distinct proposals for a de Sitter space that is emergent from conformal field theory (CFT). The first proposal is that, for two-dimensional holographic CFTs, the kinematic space of geodesics on a space-like slice of the asymptotically anti-de Sitter bulk is two-dimensional de Sitter space (dS 2 ), with a metric that can be derived from the entanglement entropy of intervals in the CFT. In the second proposal, de Sitter dynamics emerges naturally from the first law of entanglement entropy for perturbations around the vacuum state of CFTs. We provide support for the equivalence of these two emergent spacetimes in the vacuum case and beyond. In particular, we study the kinematic spaces of nontrivial solutions of 3d gravity, including the BTZ black string, BTZ black hole, and conical singularities. We argue that the resulting spaces are generically globally hyperbolic spacetimes that support dynamics given boundary conditions at future infinity. For the BTZ black string, corresponding to a thermal state of the CFT, we show that both prescriptions lead to an emergent hyperbolic patch of dS 2 . As a result, we offer a general method for relating kinematic space and the auxiliary de Sitter space that is valid in the vacuum and thermal cases.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Air pollution and emergency department visits for respiratory diseases: A multi-city case crossover study

Highlights: • Extensive research exists on the effects of ambient air pollution on respiratory diseases. • Emergency department visits for respiratory diseases increase after days with higher concentrations of air pollution. • Ambient pollution, even at low concentrations, appear to adversely affect the respiratory system. Increasing evidence suggests that ambient air pollution is a major risk factor for both acute and chronic respiratory disease exacerbations and emergencies. The objective of this study was to determine the association between ambient air pollutants and emergency department (ED) visits for respiratory conditions in nine districts across the province of Ontario in Canada. Health, air pollutant (PM{sub 2.5}, NO{sub 2}, O{sub 3}, and SO{sub 2}), and meteorological data were retrieved from April 2004 to December 2011. Respiratory diseases were categorized as: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD, including bronchiectasis) and acute upper respiratory diseases. A case-crossover design was used to test the associations between ED visits and ambient air pollutants, stratified by sex and season. For COPD among males, positive results were observed for NO{sub 2} with lags of 3–6 days, for PM{sub 2.5} with lags 1–8, and for SO{sub 2} with lags of 4–8 days. For COPD among females, positive results were observed for O{sub 3} with lags 2–4 days, and for SO{sub 2} among lags of 3–6 days. For upper respiratory disease emergencies among males, positive results were observed for NO{sub 2} (lags 5–8 days), for O{sub 3}, (lags 0–6 days), PM{sub 2.5} (all lags), and SO{sub 2} (lag 8), and among females, positive results were observed for NO{sub 2} for lag 8 days, for O{sub 3}, PM{sub 2.5} among all lags. Our study provides evidence of the associations between short-term exposure to air pollution and increased risk of ED visits for upper and lower respiratory diseases in an environment where air pollutant concentrations are relatively low.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Emergent Chemical Behavior in Mixed Food and Lignocellulosic Green Waste Hydrothermal Liquefaction

Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) is a promising strategy for the conversion of energy-dense waste streams to fuels. Mixed-feed HTL aggregates multiple feed streams to achieve greater scales that capitalize on local resources, hence lowering costs. The potential for new pathways and products upon feedstock blending becomes a compounding level of complexity when unlocking emergent chemistries. Here, food and green waste streams were evaluated under HTL conditions (300 °C, 1 h) to understand the effect of feed molecular composition on product distributions and mechanisms. Thousands of emergent chemical compounds were detected via Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry, ultimately leading to the emergence of two dominant outcomes. First, the presence of small amounts of food waste into green waste results in substantial decarboxylation and subsequent polymerization to biocrude than chars. Second, in the other limit, small amounts of green waste promote the capping of oxygenates into the biodiesel range, such as with the emergence of fatty acid methyl esters.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Time of Emergence and Large Ensemble Intercomparison for Ocean Biogeochemical Trends

Anthropogenically forced changes in ocean biogeochemistry are underway and critical for the ocean carbon sink and marine habitat. Detecting such changes in ocean biogeochemistry will require quantification of the magnitude of the change (anthropogenic signal) and the natural variability inherent to the climate system (noise). Here we use Large Ensemble (LE) experiments from four Earth system models (ESMs) with multiple emissions scenarios to estimate Time of Emergence (ToE) and partition projection uncertainty for anthropogenic signals in five biogeochemically important upper-ocean variables. We find ToEs are robust across ESMs for sea surface temperature and the invasion of anthropogenic carbon; emergence time scales are 20–30 yr. For the biological carbon pump, and sea surface chlorophyll and salinity, emergence time scales are longer (50+ yr), less robust across the ESMs, and more sensitive to the forcing scenario considered. We find internal variability uncertainty, and model differences in the internal variability uncertainty, can be consequential sources of uncertainty for projecting regional changes in ocean biogeochemistry over the coming decades. In combining structural, scenario, and internal variability uncertainty, this study represents the most comprehensive characterization of biogeochemical emergence time scales and uncertainty to date. Our findings delineate critical spatial and duration requirements for marine observing systems to robustly detect anthropogenic change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Rate of Canopy Development Modulates the Link Between the Timing of Spring Leaf Emergence and Summer Moisture

Shifts in phenological timing have important implications for ecosystem processes, with spring leaf emergence as a dominant control of carbon, water, and energy cycling. Phenological events are predominantly determined by weather and climate, therefore dynamic in time and sensitive to climate feedbacks. Improving our understanding of how ecosystems respond to changes in phenological timing will enhance our ability to assess summer soil water availability, since the timing of spring leaf emergence may lead to soil moisture deficits later in the growing season. We leveraged data from five AmeriFlux towers in central and eastern United States to investigate the extent spring leaf emergence (i.e., start of spring, SoS ) influences rates at which forest canopies develop and how this impacts summer soil moisture ( θ JJA ) variability. Our results indicate that ecosystem processes, specifically gross primary production ( GPP ) and evapotranspiration ( ET ), exhibit compensatory responses to varying leaf emergence; with delayed spring-onset, the canopy developed more quickly, resulting in rapid GPP and ET increases, consistent across sites. Nonetheless, early SoS is a relatively good indicator for potential summer soil water deficits, particularly when it occurs together with meteorological conditions (i.e., lower-than-average precipitation, hot summer temperatures) that contribute to soil water deficits. When these meteorological conditions coincide with early SoS , θ JJA deficits are exacerbated. To the extent that these extreme conditions occur more frequently under future climate scenarios, the dynamics of spring phenology and hydroclimate may play an increasingly important role in portending the likelihood of summer water deficits, which are projected to become more severe.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Emergent order in the kagome Ising magnet Dy 3 Mg 2 Sb 3 O 14

The Ising model—in which degrees of freedom (spins) are binary valued (up/down)—is a cornerstone of statistical physics that shows rich behaviour when spins occupy a highly frustrated lattice such as kagome. Here we show that the layered Ising magnet Dy 3 Mg 2 Sb 3 O 14 hosts an emergent order predicted theoretically for individual kagome layers of in-plane Ising spins. Neutron-scattering and bulk thermomagnetic measurements reveal a phase transition at ~ 0.3 K from a disordered spin-ice-like regime to an emergent charge ordered state, in which emergent magnetic charge degrees of freedom exhibit three-dimensional order while spins remain partially disordered. Monte Carlo simulations show that an interplay of inter-layer interactions, spin canting and chemical disorder stabilizes this state. Our results establish Dy 3 Mg 2 Sb 3 O 14 as a tuneable system to study interacting emergent charges arising from kagome Ising frustration.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease

Probabilistic forecasts play an indispensable role in answering questions about the spread of newly emerged pathogens. However, uncertainties about the epidemiology of emerging pathogens can make it difficult to choose among alternative model structures and assumptions. To assess the potential for uncertainties about emerging pathogens to affect forecasts of their spread, we evaluated the performance 16 forecasting models in the context of the 2015-2016 Zika epidemic in Colombia. Each model featured a different combination of assumptions about human mobility, spatiotemporal variation in transmission potential, and the number of virus introductions. We found that which model assumptions had the most ensemble weight changed through time. We additionally identified a trade-off whereby some individual models outperformed ensemble models early in the epidemic, but on average the ensembles outperformed all individual models. Our results suggest that multiple models spanning uncertainty across alternative assumptions are necessary to obtain robust forecasts for emerging infectious diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Human-induced changes to the global ocean water masses and their time of emergence

The World Ocean is rapidly changing, with global and regional modification of temperature and salinity, resulting in widespread and irreversible impacts. While the most pronounced observed temperature and salinity changes are located in the upper ocean, changes in water masses at depth have been identified and will probably strengthen in the future. In this study, using 11 climate models, we define when anthropogenic temperature and salinity changes are expected to emerge from natural variability in the ocean interior along density surfaces. The models predict that in 2020, 20–55% of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian basins have an emergent anthropogenic signal; reaching 40–65% in 2050 and 55–80% in 2080. The well-ventilated Southern Ocean water masses emerge very rapidly, as early as the 1980–1990s, while the Northern Hemisphere water masses emerge in the 2010–2030s. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining and augmenting an ocean observing system capable of detecting and monitoring persistent anthropogenic changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Emergence and dynamics of unconfined self-organised vortices in active magnetic roller liquids

Actively driven colloids demonstrate complex out-of-equilibrium dynamics often rivaling self-organized patterns and collective behavior observed in living systems. Recent studies revealed the emergence of steady macroscopic states with multiple interacting vortices in an unconfined environment that emerge from the coupling between microscale particle rotation and translation. Yet, insights into the microscopic behavior during the vortex emergence, growth, and formation of a multi-vortical state remain lacking. Here, we investigate in experiments and simulations how the microscale magnetic roller behavior leads to the emergence of seed vortices, their aggregation or annihilation, and the formation of stable large-scale vortical structures. We reveal that the coupling of roller-induced hydrodynamic flows guides the local self-densifications and self-organization of the micro-rollers into seed vortices. Here, the resulting multi-vortical state is sensitive to the external magnetic field amplitude and allows tuning the rollers' number density in a vortex and its characteristic size.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

THE FRONTIER BETWEEN SMALL-SCALE BIPOLES AND EPHEMERAL REGIONS IN THE SOLAR PHOTOSPHERE: EMERGENCE AND DECAY OF AN INTERMEDIATE-SCALE BIPOLE OBSERVED WITH SUNRISE/IMaX

We report on the photospheric evolution of an intermediate-scale ( Almost-Equal-To 4 Mm footpoint separation) magnetic bipole, from emergence to decay, observed in the quiet Sun at high spatial (0.''3) and temporal (33 s) resolution. The observations were acquired by the Imaging Magnetograph Experiment imaging magnetograph during the first science flight of the SUNRISE balloon-borne solar observatory. The bipole flux content is 6 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 17} Mx, representing a structure bridging the gap between granular scale bipoles and the smaller ephemeral regions. Footpoints separate at a speed of 3.5 km s{sup -1} and reach a maximum distance of 4.5 Mm before the field dissolves. The evolution of the bipole is revealed to be very dynamic: we found a proper motion of the bipole axis and detected a change of the azimuth angle of 90 Degree-Sign in 300 s, which may indicate the presence of some writhe in the emerging structure. The overall morphology and behavior are in agreement with previous analyses of bipolar structures emerging at the granular scale, but we also found several similarities with emerging flux structures at larger scales. The flux growth rate is 2.6 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 15} Mx s{sup -1}, while the mean decay rate is one order of magnitude smaller. We describe in some detail the decay phase of the bipole footpoints that includes break up into smaller structures, and interaction with preexisting fields leading to cancellation, but it appears to be dominated by an as-yet unidentified diffusive process that removes most of the flux with an exponential flux decay curve. The diffusion constant (8 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 2} km{sup 2} s{sup -1}) associated with this decay is similar to the values used to describe the large-scale diffusion in flux transport models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DETECTION OF FLUX EMERGENCE, SPLITTING, MERGING, AND CANCELLATION OF NETWORK FIELD. I. SPLITTING AND MERGING

Frequencies of magnetic patch processes on the supergranule boundary, namely, flux emergence, splitting, merging, and cancellation, are investigated through automatic detection. We use a set of line-of-sight magnetograms taken by the Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) on board the Hinode satellite. We found 1636 positive patches and 1637 negative patches in the data set, whose time duration is 3.5 hr and field of view is 112'' Multiplication-Sign 112''. The total numbers of magnetic processes are as follows: 493 positive and 482 negative splittings, 536 positive and 535 negative mergings, 86 cancellations, and 3 emergences. The total numbers of emergence and cancellation are significantly smaller than those of splitting and merging. Further, the frequency dependence of the merging and splitting processes on the flux content are investigated. Merging has a weak dependence on the flux content with a power-law index of only 0.28. The timescale for splitting is found to be independent of the parent flux content before splitting, which corresponds to {approx}33 minutes. It is also found that patches split into any flux contents with the same probability. This splitting has a power-law distribution of the flux content with an index of -2 as a time-independent solution. These results support that the frequency distribution of the flux content in the analyzed flux range is rapidly maintained by merging and splitting, namely, surface processes. We suggest a model for frequency distributions of cancellation and emergence based on this idea.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Simulations of emerging magnetic flux. I. The formation of stable coronal flux ropes

We present results from three-dimensional visco-resistive magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the emergence of a convection zone magnetic flux tube into a solar atmosphere containing a pre-existing dipole coronal field, which is orientated to minimize reconnection with the emerging field. We observe that the emergence process is capable of producing a coronal flux rope by the transfer of twist from the convection zone, as found in previous simulations. We find that this flux rope is stable, with no evidence of a fast rise, and that its ultimate height in the corona is determined by the strength of the pre-existing dipole field. We also find that although the electric currents in the initial convection zone flux tube are almost perfectly neutralized, the resultant coronal flux rope carries a significant net current. These results suggest that flux tube emergence is capable of creating non-current-neutralized stable flux ropes in the corona, tethered by overlying potential fields, a magnetic configuration that is believed to be the source of coronal mass ejections.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

EMERGENCE OF GRANULAR-SIZED MAGNETIC BUBBLES THROUGH THE SOLAR ATMOSPHERE. II. NON-LTE CHROMOSPHERIC DIAGNOSTICS AND INVERSIONS

Magnetic flux emergence into the outer layers of the Sun is a fundamental mechanism for releasing energy into the chromosphere and the corona. In this paper, we study the emergence of granular-sized flux concentrations and the structuring of the corresponding physical parameters and atmospheric diagnostics in the upper photosphere and in the chromosphere. We make use of a realistic 3D MHD simulation of the outer layers of the Sun to study the formation of the Ca ii 8542 line. We also derive semi-empirical 3D models from non-LTE inversions of our observations. These models contain information on the line-of-sight stratifications of temperature, velocity, and the magnetic field. Our analysis explains the peculiar Ca ii 8542 Å profiles observed in the flux emerging region. Additionally, we derive detailed temperature and velocity maps describing the ascent of a magnetic bubble from the photosphere to the chromosphere. The inversions suggest that, in active regions, granular-sized bubbles emerge up to the lower chromosphere where the existing large-scale field hinders their ascent. We report hints of heating when the field reaches the chromosphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

ON THE POLARIMETRIC SIGNATURE OF EMERGING MAGNETIC LOOPS IN THE QUIET SUN

The abundance of Stokes V profiles dominated by one lobe at the locations of emergence of {Omega}-shaped magnetic loops is evaluated. The emergence events were found in Hinode Solar Optical Telescope/spectro-polarimeter time sequences of quiet-Sun regions. Such a study has the aim of confirming a prediction based on the basic geometrical and physical properties of emerging magnetic loops: Stokes V profiles dominated by one lobe are possibly the main polarimetric signature of these structures. In agreement with this prediction, 47% of the Stokes V profiles analyzed have an amplitude asymmetry |{delta}a| > 0.3, while in the quiet Sun the abundance is of about 30%. This excess with respect to the quiet Sun is found consistently for any value of the threshold on the amplitude asymmetry. Such a result proves the goodness of the physical scenarios so far proposed for the interpretation of loop emergence events and may prompt the use of Stokes V profiles dominated by one lobe as a new proxy for their identification in observations with a good spectral sampling.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

PENUMBRAL-LIKE FILAMENTS IN THE SOLAR PHOTOSPHERE AS A MANIFESTATION OF FLUX EMERGENCE

Rare observations of the solar photosphere show the appearance of orphan penumbrae, filamentary structures very similar to a bundle of sunspot penumbral filaments not connected to any umbra. Lim et al. found an orphan penumbra in active region NOAA 11391 near a mature sunspot. We analyze a different data set to study the same structure using the Solar Optical Telescope on board the Hinode satellite. Spectropolarimetric measurements along the Fe I 630.2 nm pair, complemented by G-band and Ca II H filtergrams, show the evolution of this penumbral-like structure and reveal that an emerging flux region is its ancestor. We find new evidence for the interaction between the emerging flux and the pre-existing field that leads to a brightening observed near the base of the chromosphere. Our analysis suggests that as a result of the combination of photospheric flux emergence and magneto-convection in inclined fields the horizontal component of the emerging field can be trapped in the photosphere by the overlying fields and form a structure resembling penumbral filaments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗