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A Framework for Evaluating R&D Impacts and Supply Chain Dynamics Early in a Product Life Cycle. Looking inside the black box of innovation

This report provides a framework for evaluation of R&D investments aimed at speeding up the pace of innovation and strengthening domestic manufacturing and supply chains, which make up a portion of the investments of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOEs) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE). These investments focus on early phases of the product life cycle, characterized as extending from pre-product, late stage R&D, to initial product introduction and through to early market growth. The investments aim to provide support for additional technology, supply-chain, manufacturing, and early market development to enhance or create markets for clean energy technologies and strengthen the U.S. industry base.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Heart of the Hearth: Making the Popular Clean, Not the Clean Popular - Technology Research, Development, and Tools for Clean Biomass Cookstoves

This technical report summarizes the work completed by BioLite in fulfilment of the US DOE EERE award. The work plan focused on three key objectives: developing an optimized combustion system that demonstrates high combustion efficiency and low PM 2.5 and CO emissions, integrate the system into popular stove phenotypes – side-fed rocket stove architecture like the BioLite HomeStove, and the Patsari chimney stove in Mexico such that they maintain their important phenotypical characteristics, independently evaluate quantitative fuel and emissions performance of the integrated ‘Turbo-Patsari’ in Mexican households. The project activities were organized into six major tasks: A. Develop, fabricate, and test proof-of-concept prototypes B. Develop field prototypes, assess user feedback and field performance C. Define revised stove design for pre-production model, Identify manufacturing requirements and estimated cost to build, Conduct reliability, emissions, and performance testing of pre-production Turbo-Patsari D. Build pre-production Turbo-Patsari stove combustion cores E. Conduct pre-production field trials F. Summarize field trial results and evaluate Turbo-Patsari for potential volume production. A two-pronged approach was adopted for the above tasks. The first involved building a modular test platform that allowed parametric variation of multiple stove design parameters that directly affect its performance – heat output, thermal efficiency, and emissions. The second part of the approach comprised of building a surrogate Patsari based on GIRA’s specifications that could then be modified or retrofitted for optimum performance based on the learnings from the modular test platform. The following sections of the report will describe the findings of tests on these platform, the subsequent development, design, and installation of the Turbo-Patsari, and finally the in-home field trial.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

2016 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory is conducting a study sponsored by the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) that aims to document and implement an annual process designed to identify a realistic and timely set of input assumptions (e.g., technology cost and performance, fuel costs), and a diverse set of potential futures (standard scenarios), initially for electric sector analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Energy Innovation Acceleration Program

The Energy Innovation Acceleration Program (IAP) – also called U-Launch – has had a significant impact on early stage clean energy companies in the Northeast and on the clean energy economy in the Northeast, not only during program execution (2010-2014), but continuing into the future. Key results include: Leverage ratio of 105:1; $105M in follow-on funding (upon $1M investment by EERE); At least 19 commercial products launched; At least 17 new industry partnerships formed; At least $6.5M in revenue generated; >140 jobs created; 60% of assisted companies received follow-on funding within 1 year of program completion; In addition to the direct measurable program results summarized above, two primary lessons emerged from our work executing Energy IAP:; Validation and demonstration awards have an outsized, ‘tipping-point’ effect for startups looking to secure investments and strategic partnerships. An ecosystem approach is valuable, but an approach that evaluates the needs of individual companies and then draws from diverse ecosystem resources to fill them, is most valuable of all.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Benchmarks of Global Clean Energy Manufacturing

The Clean Energy Manufacturing Analysis Center (CEMAC), sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), provides objective analysis and up-to-date data on global supply chains and manufacturing of clean energy technologies. Benchmarks of Global Clean Energy Manufacturing sheds light on several fundamental questions about the global clean technology manufacturing enterprise: How does clean energy technology manufacturing impact national economies? What are the economic opportunities across the manufacturing supply chain? What are the global dynamics of clean energy technology manufacturing?

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

15 MW HArdware-in-the-loop Grid Simulation Project

The 15MW Hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) Grid Simulator project was to (1) design, (2) construct and (3) commission a state-of-the-art grid integration testing facility for testing of multi-megawatt devices through a ‘shared facility’ model open to all innovators to promote the rapid introduction of new technology in the energy market to lower the cost of energy delivered. The 15 MW HIL Grid Simulator project now serves as the cornerstone of the Duke Energy Electric Grid Research, Innovation and Development (eGRID) Center. This project leveraged the 24 kV utility interconnection and electrical infrastructure of the US DOE EERE funded WTDTF project at the Clemson University Restoration Institute in North Charleston, SC. Additionally, the project has spurred interest from other technology sectors, including large PV inverter and energy storage testing and several leading edge research proposals dealing with smart grid technologies, grid modernization and grid cyber security. The key components of the project are the power amplifier units capable of providing up to 20MW of defined power to the research grid. The project has also developed a one of a kind solution to performing fault ride-through testing by combining a reactive divider network and a large power converter into a hybrid method. This unique hybrid method of performing fault ride-through analysis will allow for the research team at the eGRID Center to investigate the complex differences between the alternative methods of performing fault ride-through evaluations and will ultimately further the science behind this testing. With the final goal of being able to perform HIL experiments and demonstration projects, the eGRID team undertook a significant challenge with respect to developing a control system that is capable of communicating with several different pieces of equipment with different communication protocols in real-time. The eGRID team developed a custom fiber optical network that is based upon FPGA hardware that allows for communication between the key real-time interfaces and reduces the latency between these interfaces to acceptable levels for HIL experiments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Kalaeloa Energy System Redevelopment Options Including Advanced Microgrids.

In June 2016, the Department of Energy's (DOE's) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) in collaboration with the Renewable Energy Branch for the Hawaii State Energy Office (HSEO), the Hawaii Community Development Authority (HCDA), the United States Navy (Navy), and Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) established a project to 1) assess the current functionality of the energy infrastructure at the Kalaeloa Community Development District, and 2) evaluate options to use both existing and new distributed and renewable energy generation and storage resources within advanced microgrid frameworks to cost-effectively enhance energy security and reliability for critical stakeholder needs during both short-term and extended electric power outages. This report discusses the results of a stakeholder workshop and associated site visits conducted by Sandia in October 2016 to identify major Kalaeloa stakeholder and tenant energy issues, concerns, and priorities. The report also documents information on the performance and cost benefits of a range of possible energy system improvement options including traditional electric grid upgrade approaches, advanced microgrid upgrades, and combined grid/microgrid improvements. The costs and benefits of the different improvement options are presented, comparing options to see how well they address the energy system reliability, sustainability, and resiliency priorities identified by the Kalaeloa stakeholders.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Final Technical Report, Wind Generator Project (Ann Arbor)

A Final Technical Report (57 pages) describing educational exhibits and devices focused on wind energy, and related outreach activities and programs. Project partnership includes the City of Ann Arbor, MI and the Ann Arbor Hands-on Museum, along with additional sub-recipients, and U.S. Department of Energy/Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE). Report relays key milestones and sub-tasks as well as numerous graphics and images of five (5) transportable wind energy demonstration devices and five (5) wind energy exhibits designed and constructed between 2014 and 2016 for transport and use by the Ann Arbor Hands-on Museum.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Novel Hybrid Reformer-Electrolyzer-Purifier (REP) for Distributed Production of Low-Cost, Low Greenhouse Gas Hydrogen

FuelCell Energy with support from the Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has investigated the production of low-cost, low CO2 hydrogen using a molten carbonate fuel cell operating as an electrolyzer. We confirmed the feasibility of the technology by testing a large-scale short stack. Economic analysis was done with the assistance of the National Fuel Cell Center at the University of California, Irvine and we found the technology to be attractive, especially for distributed hydrogen. We explored the performance under various operating parameters and developed an accurate model for further analysis and development calculations. We achieved the expected results, meeting all program goals. We identified additional uses of the technology such as for CO2 capture, power storage, and power load leveling.

08 HYDROGEN↗

North American Board of Certified Energy Practitioners Final Report

The U.S. DOE’s Office of EERE National Solar Energy Technology Program (SETP) calls for a “National Accreditation and Certification Program for Installation and Acceptance of Photovoltaic Systems.” A near-term goal listed in the U.S. Photovoltaic Industry’s Roadmap, 2000 - 2020 is to work to establish standards, codes, and certifications which are essential for consumer protection and acceptance as part of the goal of building toward a viable future PV industry. This program paves the way for a voluntary national certification program for PV system practitioners and installers, initiation of the first steps toward certification of hardware, and reinforcement of all five of the technical objectives in the Systems category of SETPs Multi-Year technical Plan. Through this project, NABCEP will direct the continued initiation of and sustained implementation and administration of the NABCEP Solar PV Installer Certification Program (hereafter the “Program”). The NABCEP Program is a national, voluntary program designed to provide certification for those PV installers who demonstrate the requisite skills, abilities and knowledge typically required to install and maintain PV systems. The core document upon which the Program was developed and upon which the national exam is based, is referred to as the (Program) Task Analysis. It is a thorough descriptive document containing specific psychomotor and cognitive tasks for the purposes of identifying the types of training/assessment methods that apply. Psychomotor skills require measuring, assembling, fastening and related activities. Cognitive skills require knowledge processing, decision-making and computations. NABCEP effectively evaluates an applicant’s psychomotor skills through review of a candidate’s PV installations and hands-on training received. NABCEP evaluates the candidate’s cognitive skills through administration of its national Program exam. By first qualifying for and then obtaining the required passing score, NABCEP certificants receive an accreditation that upholds NABCEP’s standards of quality, compliance to applicable codes and safety in PV installation. The objectives of DOE’s National Solar Energy Technology Program (SETP) are intrinsic to NABCEP. As detailed in the PV Roadmap, the lifespan of a PV system is a function of reliability and value. PV system reliability is directly dependent upon the quality of components and, design, installation and maintenance of a system. The latter three are all core components of the NABCEP Task Analysis - accordingly NABCEP certified installers will be instrumental in improving reliability of systems through safe, code and manufacturer-compliant installation and necessary post-installation maintenance of PV systems. This will have the effect of ensuring and increasing the performance of installed systems and, as consumers realize the benefits of well-installed and maintained systems, increased demand will follow and manufacturers will respond - supporting further growth in the PV industry. Furthermore, as more NABCEP certified installers perform these installations and maintenance competently, additional installations (whole system re-installations) and unnecessary repairs can be avoided. This will drive down system costs. This combined with creation/enhancement of the DE-FG36-04GO14348/005 NABCEP Central Data Base of Installers – providing consumers with installation/maintenance service options will further reduce system costs and help meet the overall goal of reducing life cycle costs. As consumers receive more value from PV systems which are providing longer, trouble free, renewable energy, they will join the ranks of professionals and enthusiasts calling for reduced technological barriers to installation (particularly for grid-tied systems). States and utilities will react to pressure and begin easing onerous net-metering and other technological restrictions. The benefits of NABCEP’s Program will be evident to consumers, manufacturers, distributors, state energy officials and solar academic institutions. Consumers benefit through increased system performance and reduced costs. Manufacturers of PV and balance of system components as well as distributors support and benefit from NABCEP because of assurances that systems are installed in accordance to code (i.e., NEC) and their specifications, resulting in longer life. Collaborators including state energy officials (i.e., New York State Energy Research and Development Authority) benefit by knowing that rebate funds are spent on systems whose benefits will far exceed system costs. Program Objectives The improvements and advantages offered by a national voluntary certification program can only expand the horizons for photovoltaic applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Advanced Direct-Drive Generator for Improved Availability of Oscillating Wave Surge Converter Power Generation Systems Final Technical Report

This report summarizes the activities conducted under the DOE-EERE funded project DE-EE0006400, where ABB Inc. (ABB), in collaboration with Texas A&M’s Advanced Electric Machines & Power Electronics (EMPE) Lab and Resolute Marine Energy (RME) designed, derisked, developed, and demonstrated a novel magnetically geared electrical generator for direct-drive, low-speed, high torque MHK applications The project objective was to investigate a novel and compact direct-drive electric generator and its system aspects that would enable elimination of hydraulic components in the Power Take-Off (PTO) of a Marine and Hydrokinetic (MHK) system with an oscillating wave surge converter (OWSC), thereby improving the availability of the MHK system. The scope of this project was limited to the development and dry lab demonstration of a low speed generator to enable future direct drive MHK systems.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Biomass Energy Generation Project

The Municipal Electric Utility of the City of Cedar Falls (dba Cedar Fals Utilities or CFU) received a congressionally directed grant funded through DOE-EERE to run three short (4 hour) duration test burns and one long (10 days) duration test burn to test the viability of renewable fuels in Streeter Station Boiler #6, a stoker coal fired electric generation unit. The long test burn was intended to test supply chain assumptions, optimize boiler combustion and assess the effects of a longer duration burn of biomass on the boiler.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A Comprehensive System of Energy Intensity Indicators for the US: Methods, Data and Key Trends

This report provides an update to a previously published (Rev 1) report that describes a comprehensive system of energy intensity indicators for the United States that has been developed for the Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) over the past decade. This system of indicators is hierarchical in nature, beginning with detailed indexes of energy intensity for various sectors of the economy, which are ultimately aggregated to an overall energy intensity index for the economy as a whole. The aggregation of energy intensity indexes to higher levels in the hierarchy is performed with a version of the Log Mean Divisia index (LMDI) method. Based upon the data and methods in the system of indicators, the economy-wide energy intensity index shows a decline of about 14% in 2011 relative to a 1985 base year. Discussion of energy intensity indicators for each of the broad end-use sectors of the economy—residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation—is presented in the report. An analysis of recent changes in the efficiency of electricity generation in the U.S. is also included. A detailed appendix describes the data sources and methodology behind the energy intensity indicators for each sector.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

SPI Conformance Gel Applications in Geothermal Zonal Isolation

Zonal isolation in geothermal injection and producing wells is important while drilling the wells when highly fractured geothermal zones are encountered and there is a need to keep the fluids from interfering with the drilling operation. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) objectives are to advance technologies to make it more cost effective to develop, produce, and monitor geothermal reservoirs and produce geothermal energy. Thus, zonal isolation is critical to well cost, reservoir evaluation and operations. Traditional cementing off of the lost circulation or thief zones during drilling is often done to stem the drilling mud losses. This is an expensive and generally unsuccessful technique losing the potential of the remaining fracture system. Selective placement of strong SPI gels into only the offending fractures can maintain and even improve operational efficiency and resource life. The SPI gel system is a unique silicate based gel system that offers a promising solution to thief zones and conformance problems with water and CO2 floods and potentially geothermal operations. This gel system remains a low viscosity fluid until an initiator (either internal such as an additive or external such as CO2) triggers gelation. This is a clear improvement over current mechanical methods of using packers, plugs, liners and cementing technologies that often severely damage the highly fractured area that is isolated. In the SPI gels, the initiator sets up the fluid into a water-like (not a precipitate) gel and when the isolated zone needs to be reopened, the SPI gel may be removed with an alkaline solution without formation damage occurring. In addition, the SPI gel in commercial quantities is expected to be less expensive than competing mechanical systems and has unique deep placement possibilities. This project seeks to improve upon the SPI gel integrity by modifying the various components to impart temperature stability for use in geothermal.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Final Report for ALCC Allocation: Predictive Simulation of Complex Flow in Wind Farms

This report documents work performed using ALCC computing resources granted under a proposal submitted in February 2016, with the resource allocation period spanning the period July 2016 through June 2017. The award allocation was 10.7 million processor-hours at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center. The simulations performed were in support of two projects: the Atmosphere to Electrons (A2e) project, supported by the DOE EERE office; and the Exascale Computing Project (ECP), supported by the DOE Office of Science. The project team for both efforts consists of staff scientists and postdocs from Sandia National Laboratories and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. At the heart of these projects is the open-source computational-fluid-dynamics (CFD) code, Nalu. Nalu solves the low-Mach-number Navier-Stokes equations using an unstructured- grid discretization. Nalu leverages the open-source Trilinos solver library and the Sierra Toolkit (STK) for parallelization and I/O. This report documents baseline computational performance of the Nalu code on problems of direct relevance to the wind plant physics application - namely, Large Eddy Simulation (LES) of an atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) flow and wall-modeled LES of a flow past a static wind turbine rotor blade. Parallel performance of Nalu and its constituent solver routines residing in the Trilinos library has been assessed previously under various campaigns. However, both Nalu and Trilinos have been, and remain, in active development and resources have not been available previously to rigorously track code performance over time. With the initiation of the ECP, it is important to establish and document baseline code performance on the problems of interest. This will allow the project team to identify and target any deficiencies in performance, as well as highlight any performance bottlenecks as we exercise the code on a greater variety of platforms and at larger scales. The current study is rather modest in scale, examining performance on problem sizes of O(100 million) elements and core counts up to 8k cores. This will be expanded as more computational resources become available to the projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

U.S. Department of Energy Reference Model Program RM1: Experimental Results.

The Reference Model Project (RMP), sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Wind and Water Power Technologies Program within the Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy (EERE), aims at expediting industry growth and efficiency by providing nonproprietary Reference Models (RM) of MHK technology designs as study objects for opensource research and development (Neary et al. 2014a,b). As part of this program, MHK turbine models were tested in a large open channel facility at the University of Minnesota’s St. Anthony Falls Laboratory (UMN-SAFL). Reference Model 1 (RM1) is a 1:40 geometric scale dual-rotor axial flow horizontal axis device with counter-rotating rotors, each with a rotor diameter dT = 0.5m. Precise blade angular position and torque measurements were synchronized with three acoustic Doppler velocimeters (ADVs) aligned with each rotor and the midpoint for RM1. Flow conditions for each case were controlled such that depth, h = 1m, and volumetric flow rate, Qw = 2.425m3s-1, resulting in a hub height velocity of approximately Uhub = 1.05ms-1 and blade chord length Reynolds numbers of Rec ≈ 3.0x105. Vertical velocity profiles collected in the wake of each device from 1 to 10 rotor diameters are used to estimate the velocity recovery and turbulent characteristics in the wake, as well as the interaction of the counter-rotating rotor wakes. The development of this high resolution laboratory investigation provides a robust dataset that enables assessing turbulence performance models and their ability to accurately predict device performance metrics, including computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models that can be used to predict turbulent inflow environments, reproduce wake velocity deficit, recovery and higher order turbulent statistics, as well as device performance metrics.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Field evaluation of remote wind sensing technologies: Shore-based and buoy mounted LIDAR systems

In developing a national energy strategy, the United States has a number of objectives, including increasing economic growth, improving environmental quality, and enhancing national energy security. Wind power contributes to these objectives through the deployment of clean, affordable and reliable domestic energy. To achieve U.S. wind generation objectives, the Wind and Water Power Program within the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) instituted the U.S. Offshore Wind: Removing Market Barriers Program in FY 2011. Accurate and comprehensive information on offshore wind resource characteristics across a range of spatial and temporal scales is one market barrier that needs to be addressed through advanced research in remote sensing technologies. There is a pressing need for reliable offshore wind-speed measurements to assess the availability of the potential wind energy resource in terms of power production and to identify any frequently occurring spatial variability in the offshore wind resource that may impact the operational reliability and lifetime of wind turbines and their components and to provide a verification program to validate the “bankability” of the output of these alternative technologies for use by finance institutions for the financing of offshore wind farm construction. The application of emerging remote sensing technologies is viewed as a means to cost-effectively meet the data needs of the offshore wind industry. In particular, scanning and buoy mounted LIDAR have been proposed as a means to obtain accurate offshore wind data at multiple locations without the high cost and regulatory hurdles associated with the construction of offshore meteorological towers. However; before these remote sensing technologies can be accepted the validity of the measured data must be evaluated to ensure their accuracy. The proposed research will establish a unique coastal ocean test-bed in the Mid-Atlantic for the evaluation of LIDAR-based wind measurement systems to validate the accuracy of remotely measured wind data in marine applications. Specifically, the test-bed will be utilized to systematically evaluate the capability of emerging scanning LIDAR and buoy mounted vertically profiling LIDAR by: (1) Evaluating a fixed scanning LIDAR against land-based 50 and 60 meter high meteorological masts fitted with research quality cup-vane and/or sonic anemometers; (2) Evaluating a buoy mounted vertically profiling LIDAR fixed on land and floating in a sheltered bay against a co-located 60 meter high meteorological mast fitted with a research quality cup-vane and/or sonic anemometers and the fixed scanning LIDAR; and (3) Offshore field evaluation of both LIDAR platforms through a comparison of the fixed scanning LIDAR data and data obtained by the buoy mounted LIDAR located 10 miles offshore. The proposed research will systematically validate Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) based wind measurement systems and assess the temporal and spatial variability of the offshore wind resource in the Mid-Atlantic east of New Jersey. The goal of the proposed project is to address the technical and commercial challenges of the offshore wind energy industry by validating and assessing cost-effective, over ocean wind resource characterization technologies. The objective is to systematically evaluate the capability of both scanning and vertically profiling LIDARs to accurately measure 3D wind fields through comparison with fixed met masts and intercomparison among LIDAR platforms. Once validated, data collected by both buoy mounted vertically profiling LIDARs and shore-based, pulsed horizontally scanning LIDARs can be used to accurately assess offshore wind resources and to quantify the spatial and temporal variability in the offshore wind fields. One of the fundamental research questions to be addressed in phase 1 is the assessment of various measurement and data processing schemes to retrieve accurate wind vectors in the marine environment over large sampling ranges (10 to 12 km) and varying atmospheric aerosol levels. Atmospheric conditions and aerosol content within the coastal ocean region of the Mid-Atlantic seaboard of the US can vary significantly over short time periods in response to frontal passages and extratropical and tropical low pressure system passage offshore of the coast. Since aerosols provide the scattering medium for the determination of LIDAR Doppler shifts in the atmosphere the accuracy and range of LIDAR derived velocity measurements as a function of variation in aerosol content in the marine environment is a key research question to be addressed. In phase 1, it is desired to capture as much variation in atmospheric conditions and aerosol content as possible. To this end, collocated measurements of LIDAR and standard anemometer wind fields will be captured by the project PIs over all four seasons and during specific events (e.g., coastal low pressure system passage) in year 1. Additionally, since the meteorological masts are permanent structures, additional events can be captured over the three year duration of the field research project. All research instruments are owned by Fishermen’s Energy and made available to the PIs though a lease agreement as part of the DOE grant. Energy Fishermen’s Energy will be responsible for the operation and maintenance of the scanning LIDAR and met mast anemometers. On a daily basis, environmental data and systems performance indicators will be transmitted from each measurement station to the Fishermen’s project team consisting of both in-house personnel and equipment manufacturer engineers. Data sets include compiled LIDAR files as well as data sets from ancillary sensors. Diagnostic parameters to be monitored include standard deviations of measured values, battery levels and charging systems output, and the operational status. Once data have been confirmed as complete and reliable, files will be transferred to the Garrad Hassan (a subcontractor to Fishermen’s Energy) for incorporation in to the validation database, which is accessible to other scientific team members. Data collection times and durations will be determined by the PI and Co-PIs in consultation with instrument engineers to ensure the capture of data representative of the expected range of mid-Atlantic atmospheric conditions (e.g., temperature, moisture, coastal low pressure systems, tropical systems, rain, snow, fog). The collection and processing of the data is a function of site specific measurement requirements (Kelley et.al. 2007; Hannon et.al. 2008). To determine the optimal profiles of wind speed and direction from the LIDAR radial velocities as a function of azimuth angle, rigorous estimates of the bias and random error of each radial velocity estimate are required. Lockheed Martin Coherent Technologies, Inc., under contract with Fishermen’s Energy, will provide analyses of raw and processed data using various scan patterns to determine optimal performance settings for the pulsed scanning LIDAR. Once optimized, appropriate processing and analyses techniques will be evaluated by Garrad Hassan for use in validating the accuracy of the LIDAR wind field measurements against the standard anemometer measurements from the meteorological masts. The most attractive capability of the scanning LIDAR is the ability to provide high spatial resolution observations in a three-dimensional volume which provides superior statistical accuracy due to the large number of samples obtained. Each radial scan provides measurements in 100 range gates over a distance of 10 to 12 km at an update rate of 5 to 10 Hz and rotation of 2.5° per second. Each rotation at a fixed azimuth requires 2.4 minutes. Depending on the number of azimuths desired a complete scan can take up to 10 minutes or longer to complete. Once collected the radial velocities are processed to produce vector wind velocity estimates based on a set of data distributed in angle and range around points of interest, typically a standard grid within the radial wind map. To calculate wind vectors over a limited spatial area of interest for the comparison of data with other measurement platforms a localized least-squares approach has been applied by Hannon et.al. (2008) and a Variation Assimilation (VAR) processing technique has been applied by Chan and al Assimilation (VAR) processing technique has been applied by Chan and Shao (2006). Additionally, Kelley et.al. (2007) applied a “stare” technique that fixed a scanning LIDAR in both azimuth and elevation angles to measure over collocated sampling volumes of the LIDAR and a 3D sonic anemometer mounted to a fixed mast. Although the stare technique is limited to wind directions aligned with the sampling radial of the LIDAR, it does provide a direct comparison of sampling volumes. Each of the processing techniques described above (and possibly others) will be evaluated to determine the validity of the LIDAR derived wind fields in the marine environment. Numerical methods such as linear regression and comparison of probability density functions of wind fields measured by each instrument platform will be used to assess the processing techniques. Linear regression has the advantage of directly evaluating corresponding pairs of wind data measured by each instrument and can lend insight into deviations and bias between instruments as a function of wind speed. Assessment of the coherency between the probability density function of the wind measured by each instrument provides insight into processes that may not be accurately resolved by each instrument at specific frequencies. Once processed and assessed the most appropriate technique will be utilized to provide valid wind measurements from the pulsed scanning LIDAR. A detailed analysis of the measurement data from the LIDAR and the three meteorological towers and comparison of the coastal wind characteristics from the different systems will be performed by the CO_PI at NREL. This analysis will evaluate how the WT LIDAR performance and measurement of the wind characteristics vary with distance from the LIDAR and by atmospheric conditions; using the tower measurements at different distances (4.8, 9.6, and 19 km) from the LIDAR as a reference. The comparative analysis will include, to the extent possible, evaluation of parameters such as wind speed and direction distributions, wind shear, turbulence intensity and their variations by atmospheric conditions, month or season, and time of day.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Comparison of Vehicle Choice Models

Five consumer vehicle choice models that give projections of future sales shares of light-duty vehicles were compared by running each model using the same inputs, where possible, for two scenarios. The five models compared — LVCFlex, MA3T, LAVE-Trans, ParaChoice, and ADOPT — have been used in support of the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Vehicle Technologies Office in analyses of future light-duty vehicle markets under different assumptions about future vehicle technologies and market conditions. The models give projections of sales shares by powertrain technology. Projections made using common, but not identical, inputs showed qualitative agreement, with the exception of ADOPT. ADOPT estimated somewhat lower advanced vehicle shares, mostly composed of hybrid electric vehicles. Other models projected large shares of multiple advanced vehicle powertrains. Projections of models differed in significant ways, including how different technologies penetrated cars and light trucks. Since the models are constructed differently and take different inputs, not all inputs were identical, but were the same or very similar where possible. Projections by all models were in close agreement only in the first few years. Although the projections from LVCFlex, MA3T, LAVE-Trans, and ParaChoice were in qualitative agreement, there were significant differences in sales shares given by the different models for individual powertrain types, particularly in later years (2030 and later). For example, projected sales shares of conventional spark-ignition vehicles in 2030 for a given scenario ranged from 35% to 74%. Reasons for such differences are discussed, recognizing that these models were not developed to give quantitatively accurate predictions of future sales shares, but to represent vehicles markets realistically and capture the connections between sales and important influences. Model features were also compared at a high level, and suggestions for further comparison of models are given to enable better understanding of how different features and algorithms used in these models may give different projections.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗