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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

Risk-Informed Safety Assurance and Probabilistic Assessment of Mission-Critical Software-Intensive Systems

This report validates and documents the detailed features and practical application of the framework for software intensive digital systems risk assessment and risk-informed safety assurance presented in the NASA PRA Procedures Guide for Managers and Practitioner. This framework, called herein the "Context-based Software Risk Model" (CSRM), enables the assessment of the contribution of software and software-intensive digital systems to overall system risk, in a manner which is entirely compatible and integrated with the format of a "standard" Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), as currently documented and applied for NASA missions and applications. The CSRM also provides a risk-informed path and criteria for conducting organized and systematic digital system and software testing so that, within this risk-informed paradigm, the achievement of a quantitatively defined level of safety and mission success assurance may be targeted and demonstrated. The framework is based on the concept of context-dependent software risk scenarios and on the modeling of such scenarios via the use of traditional PRA techniques - i.e., event trees and fault trees - in combination with more advanced modeling devices such as the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) or other dynamic logic-modeling representations. The scenarios can be synthesized and quantified in a conditional logic and probabilistic formulation. The application of the CSRM method documented in this report refers to the MiniAERCam system designed and developed by the NASA Johnson Space Center.

Guarro, Sergio B.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Volumetric Assessment of UPRITE Exercises From Marker-Based Motion Capture

BACKGROUND Lack of volumetric data on full-body movement of exercises presents a challenge to ensuring the fit of crew member’s full range of motion on the International Space Station (ISS). The Upright Proprioception Retention via In-flight Training and Evaluation (UPRITE) is a sensorimotor countermeasure device designed for maintaining crew members’ proprioception in a microgravity environment. A footplate—attached to a static base—rotates in two degrees of freedom (pitch and roll) up to a 20 deg angle. An initial volumetric assessment assuming an upright standing posture produced a cone-like shape with a narrow bottom and wide top. Such general volumetric assessments risk creating an overly conservative volume estimate, taking up more space than is necessary on the already limited interior space of the ISS, and neglecting necessary volume due to oversimplifying assumptions. Rather, higher-fidelity volumetric assessments offer more comprehensive insights in an environment where every area counts. The main objective of this work is to provide the spatial parameters of exercises on the UPRITE such that it is placed on the ISS according to its volumetric demands or that usage is adjusted to fit the available space. METHODS In 2023, a data collection was performed originally to inform loads and dynamics of system use and was recently leveraged for volumetric assessment. Three human subjects representing different body types (~63-76 inches in stature) performed a variety of board manipulations using UPRITE with body weight offload. The test collected the 3D positional data of a modified full-body Plug-in Gait marker set [1] via a 16-camera OptiTrack MoCap system. After processing – filling marker gaps and trimming data – in OptiTrack Motive, the recorded marker location data, which included device markers, was exported to a readable trajectory file. To accurately represent the full volume defining landmarks, additional markers were digitally added to an unscaled Modified Full Body Model [2]. The model was then scaled according to its subject parameters upon which an inverse kinematics analysis was performed. A custom plugin yielded model marker location data files. Volumetric analyses were performed on the recorded trajectory and model trajectory files using a custom Python-built tool that extracted the marker location data and plotted it in a 3D space. Concerned with only the maximum volume of the motion, a 3D convex hull analysis was applied to the plot, extracting the vertices or external points of the eventual 3D CAD output, dubbed aptly as a “volume shell”. This overall approach was based on guidance in a NASA-STD-3001 Technical Brief [3]. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Batch volumetric assessment on the exercises for each subject was performed, producing high-fidelity volume shells in minimal time. Preliminary results highlighted the value in higher-fidelity volumes based on collected data when possible. For example, revolving a single posture in the cone assessment would not have sufficiently captured a single leg stance; rather, it would need to involve swinging the leg both forward and back. Additional observations and the maximal dimensions of the volumes, including those based on scaled data for ISS anthropometric requirements, will be presented at the Human Research Program Investigator’s Workshop. CONCLUSIONS While this work’s primary objective was for the UPRITE-to-ISS integration, the tool built to conduct this analysis has wide applications for future exercise systems as an informational tool for optimal device placement. The tool and its findings also have implications for exercise device design and spacecraft interior considerations on Gateway, the Lunar Pressurized Rover, and beyond. REFERENCES [1] Bell, C. A., et al. (2023) Recent Improvements and Verification of a Full Body Model in OpenSim. NASA Human Research Program Investigator’s Workshop. https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20230001080 [2] Lostroscio, K., et al (2023) The Digital Astronaut Simulation. AHFE International Conference on Human Factors in Design, Engineering, and Computing for All. [3] Exercise Overview. (2023) NASA-STD-3001 Technical Brief. https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/ochmo-tb-031-exercise-overview.pdf?emrc=9d454c?emrc=9d454c

L D Quinto↗
NASA NTRS2001

Challenges Facing Design and Analysis Tools

The design and analysis of future aerospace systems will strongly rely on advanced engineering analysis tools used in combination with risk mitigation procedures. The implications of such a trend place increased demands on these tools to assess off-nominal conditions, residual strength, damage propagation, and extreme loading conditions in order to understand and quantify these effects as they affect mission success. Advances in computer hardware such as CPU processing speed, memory, secondary storage, and visualization provide significant resources for the engineer to exploit in engineering design. The challenges facing design and analysis tools fall into three primary areas. The first area involves mechanics needs such as constitutive modeling, contact and penetration simulation, crack growth prediction, damage initiation and progression prediction, transient dynamics and deployment simulations, and solution algorithms. The second area involves computational needs such as fast, robust solvers, adaptivity for model and solution strategies, control processes for concurrent, distributed computing for uncertainty assessments, and immersive technology. Traditional finite element codes still require fast direct solvers which when coupled to current CPU power enables new insight as a result of high-fidelity modeling. The third area involves decision making by the analyst. This area involves the integration and interrogation of vast amounts of information - some global in character while local details are critical and often drive the design. The proposed presentation will describe and illustrate these areas using composite structures, energy-absorbing structures, and inflatable space structures. While certain engineering approximations within the finite element model may be adequate for global response prediction, they generally are inadequate in a design setting or when local response prediction is critical. Pitfalls to be avoided and trends for emerging analysis tools will be described.

Knight, Norman F., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Effect of Dietary Countermeasures and Impact of Gravity on Renal Calculi Size Distributions Predicted by PBE-System and PBE-CFD Models

Renal stone disease is not only a concern on earth but can conceivably pose a serious risk to the astronauts health and safety in Space. In this work, two different deterministic models based on a Population Balance Equation (PBE) analysis of renal stone formation are developed to assess the risks of critical renal stone incidence for astronauts during space travel. In the first model, the nephron is treated as a continuous mixed suspension mixed product removal crystallizer and the PBE for the nucleating, growing and agglomerating renal calculi is coupled to speciation calculations performed by JESS. Predictions of stone size distributions in the kidney using this model indicate that the astronaut in microgravity is at noticeably greater but still subcritical risk and recommend administration of citrate and augmented hydration as effective means of minimizing and containing this risk. In the second model, the PBE analysis is coupled to a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model for flow of urine and transport of Calcium and Oxalate in the nephron to predict the impact of gravity on the stone size distributions. Results presented for realistic 3D tubule and collecting duct geometries, clearly indicate that agglomeration is the primary mode of size enhancement in both 1g and microgravity. 3D numerical simulations seem to further indicate that there will be an increased number of smaller stones developed in microgravity that will likely pass through the nephron in the absence of wall adhesion. However, upon reentry to a 1g (Earth) or 38g (Mars) partial gravitational fields, the renal calculi can lag behind the urinary flow in tubules that are adversely oriented with respect to the gravitational field and grow agglomerate to large sizes that are sedimented near the wall with increased propensity for wall adhesion, plaque formation, and risk to the astronauts.

Renal Stones↗
NASA NTRS2002

Launch Vehicle Sizing Benefits Utilizing Main Propulsion System Crossfeed and Project Status

To meet the goals for a next generation Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV), a unique propulsion feed system concept was identified using crossfeed between the booster and orbiter stages that could reduce the Two-Stage-to-Orbit (TSTO) vehicle weight and Design, Development, Test and Evaluation (DDT&E) costs by approximately 25%, while increasing safety and reliability. The Main Propulsion System (MPS) crossfeed water demonstration test program addresses all activities required to reduce the risks for the MPS crossfeed system from a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of 2 to 4 by the completion of testing and analysis by June 2003. During the initial period, that ended in March 2002, a subscale water flow test article was defined. Procurement of a subscale crossfeed check valve was initiated and the specifications for the various components were developed. The fluid transient and pressurization analytical models were developed separately and successfully integrated. The test matrix for the water flow test was developed to correlate the integrated model. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of the crossfeed check valve was developed to assess flow disturbances and internal flow dynamics. Based on the results, the passive crossfeed system concept was very feasible and offered a safe system to be used in an RLV architecture. A water flow test article was designed to accommodate a wide range of flows simulating a number of different types of propellant systems. During the follow-on period, the crossfeed system model will be further refined, the test article will be completed, the water flow test will be performed, and finally the crossfeed system model will be correlated with the test data. This validated computer model will be used to predict the full-scale vehicle crossfeed system performance.

Chandler, Frank↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Creating Portfolio Management Concepts for Highly Agile and Innovative Government Research Programs Using Design Thinking and Lean Startup Methodologies

Managing a research and development (R&D) portfolio presents numerous challenges, such as prioritizing research areas, remaining agile, strategic workforce planning, and measuring return on investment, impact, and innovation. One government R&D program is charged with producing a high degree of innovative, transformational breakthroughs in aviation technology. A practical, structured methodology for strategically prioritizing emerging aviation R&D in such an environment is lacking. The existing multi-criteria decision aid tools are primarily utilized at an enterprise level, take months to set up and collect data, require large teams of experts, are used on an infrequent basis, and are not conducive to a highly innovative, high-risk portfolio. Prior to audaciously creating a new portfolio prioritization process, the exact challenges with portfolio management for R&D projects were identified using the design thinking and lean start-up methods. A key part of this discovery process was interviewing stakeholders, as well as other managers of organizations charged with producing innovative portfolios. These interviews, as well as additional techniques, were used to develop a deeper understanding of the challenges and, subsequently, lay the foundation for development of an effective portfolio prioritization process. Four potential concepts that represent key findings emerged: carefully selected criteria for portfolio assessment and selection, targeted portfolio turnover rate, dynamic portfolio prioritization framework, and streamlined transition or commercialization of R&D. Acting on any one of the resulting portfolio management concepts will increase the transparency and confidence in portfolio decisions and, ideally, result in a greater degree of transformational breakthroughs in aviation technology.

project portfolio management↗
NASA NTRS2023

Risk Trade-Space Analysis for Safe Human Expeditions to Mars

We assessed the integrated safety, health, and performance risk to crews on long-duration missions, specifically to Mars. Using a systems approach rather than one focused on individual countermeasures, we examined the trade space around several such risks to identify high-potential risk mitigation strategies and characterize aspects of Mars mission architectures that could lower aggregated risk. Current Mars Design Reference missions would require durations well over two years and would increase crew exposure to radiation and microgravity well beyond ISS levels, likely resulting in significantly reduced performance beyond our current capability to mitigate that could jeopardize mission success. A “fast Mars transit” round-trip mission concept was studied using an innovative flight dynamics approach to quantify the minimum total mission energy required for a Mars transit with total mission duration less than 400 days. This approach holds promise for sending humans to Mars and returning them safely with acceptable, potentially mitigatable, exposure to microgravity and radiation using current or near-term technologies. The fast transit concept would also result in fewer time-driven vehicle failures and enable sustainable deployment of humans and infrastructure to Mars on a regular cadence, allowing steady exploration and colonization of Mars. Finally, we conclude that reliance on the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) mission operations paradigm – i.e., one of near-complete real-time dependence on experts at Mission Control to manage the combined state of the mission, vehicle, and crew – is high risk given the communication delays and limited resupply of any Mars mission, and this risk is not eliminated by the shorter missions durations of fast transit scenarios. Based on historical trends, it is highly likely that the crew will face a high-consequence problem of uncertain origin during Mars transit when ground support will be greatly reduced. While it may be possible to reduce anomaly rates through improved reliability analysis and testing, and to reduce anomaly impacts through added robustness, such mitigations address only known failure modes and known uncertainties. Therefore, a radical shift in the Human-Systems Integration Architecture (HSIA) that defines the operational paradigm, systems design, and human-systems interactions is required to improve the risk posture to an acceptable level regardless of mission duration.

Mars↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CFD Modeling of Cryogenic Chilldown in a Complex Channel under Normal and Low Gravity Conditions

Future NASA architectures have baselined cryogenic propulsion systems as well as cryogenic fluid management to support lunar missions and ultimately to support future missions to Mars. These missions will require chilling hardware down prior to engine restart as well as chilling lines and tanks prior to transferring and refueling these propulsion elements in orbit. In lieu of expensive tests conducted on-orbit, accurate predictive computational models of these chilldown processes can be used to reduce system and propellant mass as well as mission risk. To gain confidence in these computational models, appropriate anchoring and validation to experimental data in a relevant environment needs to be performed. Recent ground and sub-orbital flight experiments conducted by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) investigated chilldown of a complex channel resembling a turbopump bearing cavity at low flow rates. This work presents Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model development of the chilldown experiment employing two-phase flow boiling models available in commercial CFD software STAR-CCM+ using Volume of Fluid (VOF) and the traditional Euler-Euler multiphase flow solvers. Comparisons of the numerical and experimental results under normal and low-gravity conditions are presented. An assessment of solid wall temperatures and phase distribution yielded important insights into multiphase solver choice, dependence on gravity environment, and challenges associated with cryogenic flow boiling prediction and validation.

CFD↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating The Relationships Between Supine Propriorception Assessments with Upright Functional Mobility and Balance Tests

INTRODUCTION Upon return to Earth, spaceflight sensorimotor adaptations can result in impaired posture and locomotion [1], [2], and current exercise countermeasures in the International Space Station are not sufficient to maintain sensorimotor function. In-flight countermeasures and assessment tools for sensorimotor function are needed to mitigate risks associated with mission-critical task performance upon return to Earth or arrival to 0.38 G on Mars. One proposed countermeasure for proprioceptive deconditioning includes training on a tilt board device [3], which will be tested in an upcoming bed rest study. In preparation for the said study, the objective of this pilot study is to compare performance in supine proprioceptive assessments to performance in functional upright activities. The results are intended to guide the selection of supine assessment tools for the upcoming bedrest study and the development of future inflight proprioceptive training and assessment tools for exploration missions. METHODS Seventeen healthy participants (8 males and 9 females, 27.9 ± 8.5 years) provided informed consent as approved by the Institutional Review Board (IRB) at NASA. A horizontal air-bearing sled was used to provide a proprioceptive challenge in a supine body orientation, allowing for mediolateral motion with minimal friction during supine stance [4]. Participants were loaded axially (30 to 60% body weight) with their feet on a vertically oriented tilt board and instructed to perform supine assessment activities using custom software that displays a cursor controlled by tilting the tilt board. In a single-leg static activity on the tilt board (TB-St), performance was measured as the percent time spent on a center target during a 30-second trial. During a two-feet dynamic activity on the tilt board (TB-Dy), performance was measured as the number of targets captured in 30 seconds. These supine tasks were compared to performance during two upright activities used to represent upright performance: completion time for a functional mobility task (FMT) [2],[5] and a performance score from force plate sway data during 30-second single-leg upright standing (USL). RESULTS AND DISCUSSION A Spearman's rank-order correlation was run to assess the relationship between upright and supine assessments. There were statistically significant, strong correlations between scores for the FMT and each TB activity, including TB-St, rs(17) = 0.50, p<0.05, TB-Dy3, rs(17) = 0.73, p<0.001, and TB-Dy9, rs(15) = 0.53, p<0.05. There were no statistically significant correlations between USL and each TB activity. Despite a lack of correlation with upright single-leg balance, the ability of the TB to indicate upright performance in the FMT is promising, as this task is a standard post-flight measure designed to characterize locomotor dysfunction [2], [5]. CONCLUSION These efforts will inform the selection of an appropriate sensorimotor assessment method for the upcoming bed rest study and similar future studies. While current work uses a bed rest analog to develop these technologies, future work aims to prepare capabilities for future in-flight sensorimotor training and assessment to mitigate the risks of proprioception impairment after spaceflight. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work was supported by the University Space Research Association Internship Program. REFERENCES [1] Mulavara A.P. et al (2018) Med Sci Sports Exerc, 50(9), 1961-1980. [2] Mulavara A.P. et al (2010) Exp Brain Res, 202(3), 649-659. [3] Macaulay T.R. et al (2021) Front. Syst. Neurosci., 15, 658-985. [4] Goel R. et al (2017) Front. Syst. Neurosci, 11. [5] Koppelmans V. et al (2013) BMC Neurology, 12.

R Bellisle↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of Anthropogenic Activity, Climate Change, and Urbanization on Wetland Habitat in the Platte River Basin​

The Platte River Basin (PRB) is a dynamic ecosystem where wetlands play a pivotal role as essential habitats for various flora and fauna, including local and migratory birds. It provides many crucial ecosystem services that benefit humans directly and indirectly. However, anthropogenic activity, climate change, and urbanization have resulted in decline in wildlife habitat, elevated flood risk, and wetland loss. To address this issue, NASA DEVELOP partnered with Audubon Great Plains (AGP) to address the vital habitats within urban areas to protect bird species, reduce flood hazards, and analyze the potential impact of future development on wetlands. We utilized remotely sensed data from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI), and Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) to assess land use and land cover (LULC) change. Nighttime lights data from Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) as well as NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) population data were also used as inputs to simulate urban growth potential up to 2050 using the open-source FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES) model. A broad scale analysis across 13 focal cities showed varied changes in land use patterns across the PRB, with the most notable being a decrease in agricultural land coverage and an increase in vegetation and grassland coverage. We overlaid a flood extent map with the LULC classifications in Grand Island to identify possible restoration sites under AGP’s Urban Woods and Prairies Initiative. The results for two proposed scenarios showed that at least 51 counties out of 81 in the PRB would experience growth by year 2050. The first scenario (all wetlands are protected) showed that there will be no loss of wetlands by 2050. However, the second scenario (no wetlands are protected) showed a decrease in wetland area and loss of habitat for bird conservation. The results will help AGP to lead awareness workshops for communities about wetland protection and to form impactful conservation strategies in the future.​

Nancee Uniyal↗
NASA NTRS2004

Computational studies of Ras and PI3K

Until recently, experimental techniques in molecular cell biology have been the primary means to investigate biological risk upon space radiation. However, computational modeling provides an alternative theoretical approach, which utilizes various computational tools to simulate proteins, nucleotides, and their interactions. In this study, we are focused on using molecular mechanics (MM) and molecular dynamics (MD) to study the mechanism of protein-protein binding and to estimate the binding free energy between proteins. Ras is a key element in a variety of cell processes, and its activation of phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K) is important for survival of transformed cells. Different computational approaches for this particular study are presented to calculate the solvation energies and binding free energies of H-Ras and PI3K. The goal of this study is to establish computational methods to investigate the roles of different proteins played in the cellular responses to space radiation, including modification of protein function through gene mutation, and to support the studies in molecular cell biology and theoretical kinetics models for our risk assessment project.

Ren, Lei↗
NASA NTRS1993

Human Transportation System (HTS) study, volume 2

This report summarizes work completed under the Human Transportation System Study. This study was conducted by the New Initiatives Office at JSC with the technical support of Boeing, General Dynamics, Lockheed, McDonnell-Douglas, Martin Marietta, and Rockwell. The study was designed to generate information on determining the appropriate path to follow for new system development to meet the Nation's space transportation needs. The study evaluates 18 transportation architecture options using a parametric set of mission requirements. These options include use of current systems (e.g., Shuttle, Titan, etc. ) as well as proposed systems (e.g., PLS, Single-Stage-to-Orbit, etc.) to assess the impact of various considerations, such as the cost of alternate access, or the benefit of separating people and cargo. The architecture options are compared to each other with six measurable evaluation criteria or attributes. They are: funding profile, human safety, probability of mission success, architecture cost risk, launch schedule confidence, and environmental impact. Values for these attributes are presented for the architecture options, with pertinent conclusions and recommendations.

Unmanned spacecraft↗
NASA NTRS1993

Human Transportation System (HTS) study: Executive summary

This report summarizes work completed under the Human Transportation System Study. This study was conducted by the New Initiatives Office at JSC with the technical support of Boeing, General Dynamics, Lockheed, McDonnell-Douglas, Martin Marietta, and Rockwell. The study was designed to generate information on determining the appropriate path to follow for new system development to meet the Nation's space transportation needs. The study evaluates 18 transportation architecture options using a parametric set of mission requirements. These options include use of current systems (e.g., Shuttle, Titan, etc.) as well as proposed systems (e.g., PLS, Single-Stage-to-Orbit, etc.) to assess the impact of various considerations, such as the cost of alternate access, or the benefit of separating people and cargo. The architecture options are compared to each other with six measurable evaluation criteria or attributes. They are: funding profile, human safety, probability of mission success, architecture cost risk, launch schedule confidence, and environmental impact. Values for these attributes are presented for the architecture options, with pertinent conclusions and recommendations.

Unmanned spacecraft↗
NASA NTRS1993

Human Transportation System (HTS) study, volume 1

This report summarizes work completed under the Human Transportation System Study. This study was conducted by the New Initiatives Office at JSC with the technical support of Boeing, General Dynamics, Lockheed, McDonnell-Douglas, Martin Marietta, and Rockwell. The study was designed to generate information on determining the appropriate path to follow for new system development to meet the Nation's space transportation needs. The study evaluates 18 transportation architecture options using a parametric set of mission requirements. These options include use of current systems (e.g., Shuttle, Titan, etc.) as well as proposed systems (e.g., PLS, Single-Stage-to-Orbit, etc.) to assess the impact of various considerations, such as the cost of alternate access, or the benefit of separating people and cargo. The architecture options are compared to each other with six measurable evaluation criteria or attributes. They are: funding profile, human safety, probability of mission success, architecture cost risk, launch schedule confidence, and environmental impact. Values for these attributes are presented for the architecture options, with pertinent conclusions and recommendations.

Unmanned spacecraft↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design and Technology Maturation of the Stratospheric Projectile Experiment of Entry Dynamics

The supersonic and transonic dynamic stability of blunt-body reentry vehicles currently poses large risks in all of NASA’s ongoing entry missions (MSR SRL, MSR EES, and Dragonfly). These projects have allocated millions of dollars to testing and modeling efforts to buy down risk by using the current state-of-the-art (SoA) facilities at NASA’s disposal. While these facilities have heritage in supplying dynamics data to reentry missions, their availability is severely limited – particularly with the high number of concur-rent projects requesting simultaneous testing– and are costly when considering the science density per dollar. None of the current SoA facility methodologies allow the test model to have the dynamics fully develop through a flight relevant free-stream profile and as such require extrapolations with resultant high uncertainties in order to relate the test dynamics to flight expectations. SPEED is a NASA Ames Center Innovation Fund (CIF) project that is developing a highly tailorable and cost-effective test methodology to better assess the dynamic stability of blunt-body reentry vehicles via a stratospheric balloon flight. This is accomplished by dropping a suite of instrumented capsules from a stratospheric balloon to gain a statistically relevant dataset of scaled reentry vehicles in mission relevant free-flight conditions. This presentation will walk through how the test methodology is being implemented specifically for the Mars Sample Return (MSR) Earth Entry System (EES) geometry in an awarded Flight Opportunities Program (FOP) test flight in early CY24. SPEED Application to MSR: SPEED consists of three main mechanical systems: the Drop Platform, the Projectile, and the test Capsule. SPEED is being developed as a set of guidelines and recommendations for how to test with the proposed Concept of Operations (Conops) since the specific design parameters will vary depending on the specific project’s reference trajectory and entry vehicle design. As such, this presentation will walk through the development time-line as shown in Fig. 2. This is meant to serve as a blueprint for further missions as desired. Mechanical and Avionics Design. The SPEED test platform designed for the MSR-EES capsule geometry with nominal entry parameters has the ability to carry 10 Capsules to altitude instrumented with: 1. 3-Axis Accelerometer 2. IMU 3. Gyroscope 4. Magnetometer 5. Pressure Transducer cruciform 6. Uplook and Horizon Cameras To package the avionics/instrumentation suite, the capsule is approximately 1’ in diameter with the Outer Mold Line (OML) centroid-scaled from the full EES design. The internal volume is gutted and custom-shaped to fit the desired instrumentation suite, as well as to allow for the positioning of ballast mass such that the Center of Gravity is analogous to the flight vehicle. All structural components in the Capsule and Projectile are 3D printed, which significantly reduces the cost of each flight unit to around $1500 including all instrumentation, avionics, and structural components. Flight Conops. The test Capsule is accelerated to the desired altitude and Mach number while stowed in the Projectile, a missile-like vehicle consisting of steel ballast in the nose, a low-drag OML, and an Ejection Mechanism to reliably release the Capsule into the free-flow supersonic conditions. For the MSR-EES design, the capsule employs ~3kg of ballast mass at the nose to accelerate the 1.25kg test Capsule to ~Mach 1.7 at 23km altitude. This requires an initial release altitude of 40km, the quoted limit of a 80kg payload by the FOP-contracted balloon provider. Once the Ejection Mechanism avionics detect the proper conditions, the spring-loaded Ejection Mechanism will release and – guided by the sabot – expose the test Capsule to the desired test conditions for ~5 seconds of free-flight in the supersonic/transonic regimes. Dynamics in the subsonic regime will also be captured with the instrumentation suite with post-flight recovery operations aimed at recovering the high-G-load capable SD cards after the planned hard impact landings. Testing and Development: In the few months the SPEED project has worked the development of MSR-EES flight test, the team has performed lab and drone based testing which this presentation will overview. After the first design phase, the team fabricated Engineering Demonstration Units (EDUs) of all subsystems to perform validation testing shown in Fig. 5. After validation was completed on the subsystem level, a drone-drop test was performed at the recreational flight ceiling of 400ft altitude to assess the SPEED systems in a flight environment. Parameters such as in-flight stability, hard impact landing performance, and avionics performance were quantified and qualified. The FY23 CIF will culminate in a helicopter drop test aboard an Air National Guard Blackhawk. This will prepare the team for the CY24 FOP stratospheric balloon flight that should provide the final verification to begin offering the test platform for mission support. Focus of Presentation: This presentation will outline the technology maturation path of the SPEED implementation to the MSR-EES capsule baseline as well as the details regarding the mechanical system, avionics and instrumentation, and flight operations. Note that a complementary presentation is being submitted for a methodology overview of the SPEED test platform, introducing the testing technique and benefits as well as the full application space of the technology.

pitch damping coefficient↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Early Information Parameter-Set Analysis for Satellite Close Approaches using Machine Learning

Understanding orbital mechanics is essential in space flight and navigation applications, and leveraging modern force models for flight path projection remains an important aspect in space mission design and operation. However, force models do not capture all the dynamics or perturbations in the space environment and thus are subject to errors in predicting the state vectors. The further out the predicted miss distance between spacecraft is from the time of closest approach (TCA), the larger the propagated errors in the predicted miss distance at TCA is. The dependency on these force models for spacecraft flight state prediction calls for a more reliable method that can quantify, or even reduce, these propagated errors. With recent advances in the field artificial intelligence, specifically in machine and deep learning algorithms, a model that implements these approaches can improve on the modern force model approach. The goal for this work is to provide an early-information decision-making threshold, in order to prioritize risk assessment implementation, given the ongoing increase of space objects. In analyzing the relationship of several parameters from conjunction data messages(CDMs) and solar information, early information becomes viable in miss distance prediction with unsupervised learning techniques, which learn the parameters that are linked together with miss distance and probability of collision (Pc) variables. Another approach implemented for identifying relationships within CDMs is supervised learning, in which a shallow neural network binary classifier learns to distinguish events with Pc values¡108. These parameters detected in the unsupervised process are then applied to a regression neural network, which predicts the miss distance at TCA for a specific event within a given uncertainty bound. For the regression neural network, a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural network is implemented, which yields memory about each time step in an event. Using an LSTM network, the model learns to predict miss distance within 0.2km of the value measured at TCA. Although there is a limited amount of "close miss" data to train a network, the network learns to associate parameters, like large energy dissipation rates with the secondary object, with an elevated Pc

Brianna I. Robertson↗
NASA NTRS2011

Development of Head Injury Assessment Reference Values Based on NASA Injury Modeling

NASA is developing a new capsule-based, crewed vehicle that will land in the ocean, and the space agency desires to reduce the risk of injury from impact during these landings. Because landing impact occurs for each flight and the crew might need to perform egress tasks, current injury assessment reference values (IARV) were deemed insufficient. Because NASCAR occupant restraint systems are more effective than the systems used to determine the current IARVs and are similar to NASA s proposed restraint system, an analysis of NASCAR impacts was performed to develop new IARVs that may be more relevant to NASA s context of vehicle landing operations. Head IARVs associated with race car impacts were investigated by completing a detailed analysis of all of the 2002-2008 NASCAR impact data. Specific inclusion and exclusion criteria were used to select 4071 impacts from the 4015 recorder files provided (each file could contain multiple impact events). Of the 4071 accepted impacts, 274 were selected for numerical simulation using a custom NASCAR restraint system and Humanetics Hybrid-III 50th percentile numerical dummy model in LS-DYNA. Injury had occurred in 32 of the 274 selected impacts, and 27 of those injuries involved the head. A majority of the head injuries were mild concussions with or without brief loss of consciousness. The 242 non-injury impacts were randomly selected and representative of the range of crash dynamics present in the total set of 4071 impacts. Head dynamics data (head translational acceleration, translational change in velocity, rotational acceleration, rotational velocity, HIC-15, HIC-36, and the Head 3ms clip) were filtered according to SAE J211 specifications and then transformed to a log scale. The probability of head injury was estimated using a separate logistic regression analysis for each log-transformed predictor candidate. Using the log transformation constrains the estimated probability of injury to become negligible as IARVs approach zero. For the parameters head translational acceleration, head translational velocity change, head rotational acceleration, HIC-15, and HIC-36, conservative values (in the lower 95% confidence interval) that gave rise to a 5% risk of any injury occurring were estimated as 40.0 G, 7.9 m/s, 2200 rad/s2, 98.4, and 77.4 respectively. Because NASA is interested in the consequence of any particular injury on the ability of the crew to perform egress tasks, the head injuries that occurred in the NASCAR dataset were classified according to a NASA-developed scale (Classes I - III) for operationally relevant injuries, which classifies injuries on the basis of their operational significance. Additional analysis of the data was performed to determine the probability of each injury class occurring, and this was estimated using an ordered probit model. For head translational acceleration, head translational velocity change, head rotational acceleration, head rotational velocity, HIC-36, and head 3ms clip, conservative values of IARVs that produced a 5% risk of Class II injury were estimated as 50.7 G, 9.5 m/s, 2863 rad/s2, 11.0 rad/s, 30.3, and 46.4 G respectively. The results indicate that head IARVs developed from the NASCAR dataset may be useful to protect crews during landing impact.

Somers, Jeffrey T.↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Dynamic Model for the Evaluation of Aircraft Engine Icing Detection and Control-Based Mitigation Strategies

Aircraft flying in regions of high ice crystal concentrations are susceptible to the buildup of ice within the compression system of their gas turbine engines. This ice buildup can restrict engine airflow and cause an uncommanded loss of thrust, also known as engine rollback, which poses a potential safety hazard. The aviation community is conducting research to understand this phenomena, and to identify avoidance and mitigation strategies to address the concern. To support this research, a dynamic turbofan engine model has been created to enable the development and evaluation of engine icing detection and control-based mitigation strategies. This model captures the dynamic engine response due to high ice water ingestion and the buildup of ice blockage in the engines low pressure compressor. It includes a fuel control system allowing engine closed-loop control effects during engine icing events to be emulated. The model also includes bleed air valve and horsepower extraction actuators that, when modulated, change overall engine operating performance. This system-level model has been developed and compared against test data acquired from an aircraft turbofan engine undergoing engine icing studies in an altitude test facility and also against outputs from the manufacturers customer deck. This paper will describe the model and show results of its dynamic response under open-loop and closed-loop control operating scenarios in the presence of ice blockage buildup compared against engine test cell data. Planned follow-on use of the model for the development and evaluation of icing detection and control-based mitigation strategies will also be discussed. The intent is to combine the model and control mitigation logic with an engine icing risk calculation tool capable of predicting the risk of engine icing based on current operating conditions. Upon detection of an operating region of risk for engine icing events, the control mitigation logic will seek to change the engines operating point to a region of lower risk through the modulation of available control actuators while maintaining the desired engine thrust output. Follow-on work will assess the feasibility and effectiveness of such control-based mitigation strategies.

engine control↗