Using Branch Current Measurements for Parameter Identification in Extended Kalman Filter based Distribution System State Estimation
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Engineering - Power transmission and distribution↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Distribution parameters”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Distributed Fiber Sensor Interrogators for Multi-Parameter Monitoring
University of Pittsburgh Infrastructure Sensing Collaboration Workshop, Pittsburgh, PA, August 25, 2022
Lalam, Nageswara↗
The Fourth Catalog of Active Galactic Nuclei Detected by the Fermi Large Area Telescope: Data Release 3
Abstract An incremental version of the fourth catalog of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) detected by the Fermi Large Area Telescope is presented. This version (4LAC-DR3) derives from the third data release of the 4FGL catalog based on 12 yr of E > 50 MeV gamma-ray data, where the spectral parameters, spectral energy distributions (SEDs), yearly light curves, and associations have been updated for all sources. The new reported AGNs include 587 blazar candidates and four radio galaxies. We describe the properties of the new sample and outline changes affecting the previously published one. We also introduce two new parameters in this release, namely the peak energy of the SED high-energy component and the corresponding flux. These parameters allow an assessment of the Compton dominance, the ratio of the inverse-Compton to the synchrotron-peak luminosities, without relying on X-ray data.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Automatic and rapid calibration of urban building energy models by learning from energy performance database
Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) is attracting increasing attention in the energy modeling filed. Unlike modeling a single building using detailed building systems information, UBEM generally uses limited high-level building stock data to infer default assumptions about building characteristics and operations. Additionally, this practice inherently brings uncertainty to UBEM. This study introduced a novel method of automatic and rapid calibration of UBEM based on the annual electricity and natural gas energy use data by learning the correlations between crucial model input parameters and the building energy use from the reference building models. A case study was presented to calibrate 72 large office buildings built before 1978 in San Francisco. Seventeen model parameters were selected and Monte Carlo sampling was used to create 1000 samples that reasonably represent the parameter space. Then 1000 simulations were performed for the reference building model to create an energy performance database. The results showed that by learning from the energy performance database, it took less than four simulation runs on average to calibrate a building model. After the calibration, the distributions of each parameter were obtained to replace their single predefined default values. For example, the default lighting power density of 21.39 W/m 2 was calibrated to be 7.50 W/m 2 on average. The case study successfully demonstrated the effectiveness of the novel calibration method for UBEM in the mild climate. The method will be further tested in future for other climate zones and other building types.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Deciphering the Scattering of Mechanically Driven Polymers Using Deep Learning
Here, we present a deep learning approach for analyzing two-dimensional scattering data of semiflexible polymers under external forces. In our framework, scattering functions are compressed into a three-dimensional latent space using a Variational Autoencoder (VAE), and two converter networks establish a bidirectional mapping between the polymer parameters (bending modulus, stretching force, and steady shear) and the scattering functions. The training data are generated using off-lattice Monte Carlo simulations to avoid the orientational bias inherent in lattice models, ensuring robust sampling of polymer conformations. The feasibility of this bidirectional mapping is demonstrated by the organized distribution of polymer parameters in the latent space. By integrating the converter networks with the VAE, we obtain a generator that produces scattering functions from given polymer parameters and an inferrer that directly extracts polymer parameters from scattering data. While the generator can be utilized in a traditional least-squares fitting procedure, the inferrer produces comparable results in a single pass and operates 3 orders of magnitude faster. This approach offers a scalable automated tool for polymer scattering analysis and provides a promising foundation for extending the method to other scattering models, experimental validation, and the study of time-dependent scattering data.
Ding, Lijie [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),↗
Plasma Wave and Particle Dynamics During Interchange Events in the Jovian Magnetosphere Using Juno Observations
Abstract Interchange instability is known to drive fast radial transport of particles in Jupiter's inner magnetosphere. Magnetic flux tubes associated with the interchange instability often coincide with changes in particle distributions and plasma waves, but further investigations are required to understand their detailed characteristics. We analyze representative interchange events observed by Juno, which exhibit intriguing features of particle distributions and plasma waves, including Z‐mode and whistler‐mode waves. These events occurred at an equatorial radial distance of ∼9 Jovian radii on the nightside, with Z‐mode waves observed at mid‐latitude and whistler‐mode waves near the equator. We calculate the linear growth rate of whistler‐mode and Z‐mode waves based on the observed plasma parameters and electron distributions and find that both waves can be locally generated within the interchanged flux tube. Our findings are important for understanding particle transport and generation of plasma waves in the magnetospheres of Jupiter and other planetary systems.
Geology↗
Markov Chain Monte Carlo Parameter Estimation of Deflagration Losses in a Rotating Detonation Engine
One of the practical challenges of the studies of rotating detonation engines (RDEs) is the direct estimation of losses from experimental measurements. This study attempts at resolving this limitation by combining a reduced order model (ROM) of the detonation wave characteristics with a Markov chain Monte Carlo parameter estimation framework. The model considers simple deflagration losses and the overall impact of deflagration on RDE performance. To evaluate this model, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling technique was applied to estimate the loss parameters within the model for a set of conditions operated in hydrogen-air over a range of mass flow rates and equivalence ratios. The MCMC parameter estimation framework allowed for the determination of a posterior distribution of the loss parameters for each test condition, an examination of the correlation between the loss parameters and measured performance metrics of the RDE, and an uncertainty propagation of these parameters. The predicted model loss parameters were then compared to indirect experimental measurements of the deflagration combustion fractions to evaluating the validity of the approach, and shed light on the benefits and drawbacks of the model, measurement techniques, and the estimation framework.
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
Inverse Modeling of Hydrologic Parameters in CLM4 via Generalized Polynomial Chaos in the Bayesian Framework
In this work, generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion for land surface model parameter estimation is evaluated. We perform inverse modeling and compute the posterior distribution of the critical hydrological parameters that are subject to great uncertainty in the Community Land Model (CLM) for a given value of the output LH. The unknown parameters include those that have been identified as the most influential factors on the simulations of surface and subsurface runoff, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and soil moisture in CLM4.0. We set up the inversion problem in the Bayesian framework in two steps: (i) building a surrogate model expressing the input–output mapping, and (ii) performing inverse modeling and computing the posterior distributions of the input parameters using observation data for a given value of the output LH. The development of the surrogate model is carried out with a Bayesian procedure based on the variable selection methods that use gPC expansions. Our approach accounts for bases selection uncertainty and quantifies the importance of the gPC terms, and, hence, all of the input parameters, via the associated posterior probabilities.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Microstructure Generation via Generative Adversarial Network for Heterogeneous, Topologically Complex 3D Materials
Using a large-scale, experimentally captured 3D microstructure dataset, we implement the generative adversarial network (GAN) framework to learn and generate 3D microstructures of solid oxide fuel cell electrodes. The generated microstructures are visually, statistically, and topologically realistic, with distributions of microstructural parameters, including volume fraction, particle size, surface area, tortuosity, and triple phase boundary density, being highly similar to those of the original microstructure. These results are compared and contrasted with those from an established, grain-based generation algorithm (DREAM.3D). Importantly, simulations of electrochemical performance, using a locally resolved finite element model, demonstrate that the GAN generated microstructures closely match the performance distribution of the original, while DREAM.3D leads to significant differences. Finally, the ability of the generative machine learning model to recreate microstructures with high fidelity suggests that the essence of complex microstructures may be captured and represented in a compact and manipulatable form.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
A Prefire Approach for Probabilistic Assessments of Postfire Debris‐Flow Inundation
Increases in wildfire activity and rainfall intensification are driving more postfire debris flows (PFDF) in many regions around the world. PFDFs are most common in the first postfire year and may even occur before a fire is fully controlled. This underscores the importance of assessing postfire hazards before a fire starts. Evaluation of PFDF hazards prior to fire can help strategize interventions lessening the negative effects of future fires. However, debris-flow runout and inundation analyses are not routine in PFDF hazard assessments, partially due to time constraints and substantial uncertainties in boundary conditions. Here, we propose a prefire PFDF inundation assessment framework using a debris-flow runout model based on the Herschel-Bulkley (HB) rheology (HEC-RAS v6.1). We constrain model inputs and parameters using Bayesian posterior analysis, rainfall-runoff simulations, and a debris-flow volume model. We use observations from recent PFDF incidents in northern Arizona, USA, to calibrate model components and then apply our prefire inundation assessment framework in a nearby unburned area. Specifically, we (a) identify yield stress as the most influential factor on inundation extent and arrival time in a HB model, (b) establish posterior distributions for model parameters suitable for forward modeling by leveraging uncertainties in field observations, and (c) implement a predictive forward analysis in an area that has not burned recently to evaluate PFDF inundation under several future fire scenarios. This study improves our ability to assess postfire debris-flow hazards before a fire begins and provides guidance for future applications of single-phase rheological models when assessing PFDF hazards.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A Prefire Approach for Probabilistic Assessments of Postfire Debris-Flow Inundation
Increases in wildfire activity and rainfall intensification are driving more postfire debris flows (PFDF) in many regions around the world. PFDFs are most common in the first postfire year and may even occur before a fire is fully controlled. This underscores the importance of assessing postfire hazards before a fire starts. Evaluation of PFDF hazards prior to fire can help strategize interventions lessening the negative effects of future fires. However, debris-flow runout and inundation analyses are not routine in PFDF hazard assessments, partially due to time constraints and substantial uncertainties in boundary conditions. Here, we propose a prefire PFDF inundation assessment framework using a debris-flow runout model based on the Herschel-Bulkley (HB) rheology (HEC-RAS v6.1). We constrain model inputs and parameters using Bayesian posterior analysis, rainfall-runoff simulations, and a debris-flow volume model. We use observations from recent PFDF incidents in northern Arizona, USA, to calibrate model components and then apply our prefire inundation assessment framework in a nearby unburned area. Specifically, we (a) identify yield stress as the most influential factor on inundation extent and arrival time in a HB model, (b) establish posterior distributions for model parameters suitable for forward modeling by leveraging uncertainties in field observations, and (c) implement a predictive forward analysis in an area that has not burned recently to evaluate PFDF inundation under several future fire scenarios. This study improves our ability to assess postfire debris-flow hazards before a fire begins and provides guidance for future applications of single-phase rheological models when assessing PFDF hazards.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Uncertainty propagation in pore water chemical composition calculation using surrogate models
Performance assessment in deep geological nuclear waste repository systems necessitates an extended knowledge of the pore water chemical conditions prevailing in host-rock formations. In the last two decades, important progress has been made in the experimental characterization and thermodynamic modeling of pore water speciation, but the influence of experimental artifacts and uncertainties of thermodynamic input parameters are seldom evaluated. In this respect, we conducted an uncertainty propagation study in a reference geochemical model describing the pore water chemistry of the Callovian-Oxfordian clay formation. Nineteen model input parameters were perturbed, including those associated to experimental characterization (leached anions, exchanged cations, cation exchange selectivity coefficients) and those associated to generic thermodynamic databases (solubilities). A set of 13 quantities of interest were studied by the use of polynomial chaos expansions built non-intrusively with a least-squares forward stepwise regression approach. Training and validation sets of simulations were carried out using the geochemical speciation code PHREEQC. The statistical results explored the marginal distribution of each quantity of interest, their bivariate correlations as well as their global sensitivity indices. The influence of the assumed distributions for input parameters uncertainties was evaluated by considering two parametric domain sizes.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Goal-oriented a-posteriori estimation of model error as an aid to parameter estimation
In this work, a Bayesian model calibration framework is presented that utilizes goal-oriented a-posterior error estimates in quantities of interest (QoIs) for classes of high-fidelity models characterized by PDEs. It is shown that for a large class of computational models, it is possible to develop a computationally inexpensive procedure for calibrating parameters of high-fidelity models of physical events when the parameters of low-fidelity (surrogate) models are known with acceptable accuracy. The main ingredients in the proposed model calibration scheme are goal-oriented a-posteriori estimates of error in QoIs computed using a so-called lower fidelity model compared to those of an uncalibrated higher fidelity model. The estimates of error in QoIs are used to define likelihood functions in Bayesian inversion analysis. A standard Bayesian approach is employed to compute the posterior distribution of model parameters of high-fidelity models. As applications, parameters in a quasi-linear second-order elliptic boundary-value problem (BVP) are calibrated using a second-order linear elliptic BVP. In a second application, parameters of a tumor growth model involving nonlinear time-dependent PDEs are calibrated using a lower fidelity linear tumor growth model with known parameter values.
A-posterior estimates↗
MILK : a Python scripting interface to MAUD for automation of Rietveld analysis
Modern diffraction experiments ( e.g. in situ parametric studies) present scientists with many diffraction patterns to analyze. Interactive analyses via graphical user interfaces tend to slow down obtaining quantitative results such as lattice parameters and phase fractions. Furthermore, Rietveld refinement strategies ( i.e. the parameter turn-on-off sequences) tend to be instrument specific or even specific to a given dataset, such that selection of strategies can become a bottleneck for efficient data analysis. Managing multi-histogram datasets such as from multi-bank neutron diffractometers or caked 2D synchrotron data presents additional challenges due to the large number of histogram-specific parameters. To overcome these challenges in the Rietveld software Material Analysis Using Diffraction ( MAUD ), the MAUD Interface Language Kit ( MILK ) is developed along with an updated text batch interface for MAUD . The open-source software MILK is computer-platform independent and is packaged as a Python library that interfaces with MAUD . Using MILK , model selection ( e.g. various texture or peak-broadening models), Rietveld parameter manipulation and distributed parallel batch computing can be performed through a high-level Python interface. A high-level interface enables analysis workflows to be easily programmed, shared and applied to large datasets, and external tools to be integrated with MAUD . Through modification to the MAUD batch interface, plot and data exports have been improved. The resulting hierarchical folders from Rietveld refinements with MILK are compatible with Cinema: Debye–Scherrer , a tool for visualizing and inspecting the results of multi-parameter analyses of large quantities of diffraction data. In this manuscript, the combined Python scripting and visualization capability of MILK is demonstrated with a quantitative texture and phase analysis of data collected at the HIPPO neutron diffractometer.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Advancements in Multiphysics Microdepletion Analysis of an eVinci TM -like Microreactor Leveraging OpenMC-CRAB Workflow
Nuclear microreactors (MRs) are a class of nuclear reactor technology, characterized by reduced dimensions, modular design, and reduced power output in contrast to conventional Light Water Reactors (LWRs). MRs are proposed for supplying electricity and eventual process heat to remote locations, such as military installations and disaster-affected areas. Current research work sponsored by the US Department of Energy Microreactor Program (MRP) is devoted to the development of novel modeling and simulation tools to better support MR vendors and regulatory bodies. Notably, the NRC is projected to utilize the CRAB multiphysics software driver for executing both design and beyond-design-basis accident analyses. Furthermore, the NRC has been utilizing the MELCOR code to calculate mechanistic source terms during accidents. Since MELCOR relies on isotopic inventory and reactor temperature/power profiles under accident conditions, which theoretically can be derived from CRAB, the goal is to establish a comprehensive CRAB-MELCOR computational framework. Past work was focused on testing and demonstrating CRAB's capability to generate results that can be used to inform mechanistic source term calculations in MELCOR. In particular, a computational workflow leveraging OpenMC-generated microscopic cross sections and CRAB was first applied to perform multiphysics microscopic depletion calculation followed by an accident scenario for a stylized microreactor problem. In fiscal year 2024, the research work has been focused on applying the OpenMC-CRAB workflow, which was first tested in fiscal year 2023, to a realistic 3D heat-pipe cooled MR problem representative of the eVinci TM design. The latter computational problem was developed with inputs from WEC to conserve selected neutronic and thermal characteristics of the eVinci TM design without releasing proprietary data. The results of this simulation, encompassing isotopic inventory, power density distribution, and kinetic parameters, will inform both MELCOR and the WEC-developed FATE code for mechanistic source terms calculations. The results from the two codes will then be compared for code verification purposes. This report contains the design characteristics of the realist heat pipe cooled microreactor developed as a use-case for the verification exercise, and the current results for the multiphysics microscopic depletion performed with the OpenMC-CRAB workflow. The results include eigenvalue as a function of time, power distribution at EOL, in addition to nuclides inventory's time evolution and spatial distribution. Finally, we report improvements to the workflow efficiency achieved through a collaboration with the NEAMS programs. Through this collaborative effort, we were able to strongly decrease the computational time for the multiphysics microdepletion calculation (i.e., from 17.4 hours to 5.7 hours on 280 processors) in addition to simplifying the interface to generate isotopics spatial distribution utilizable by FATE and MELCOR. Future work, including the improvement of the current microscopic cross-sections' library and the simulation of an accident scenario at EOL, is also discussed.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Microstructural investigation of PBX 9501: Comparing wet slurry and resonant acoustic mixing techniques
The microstructure of a high explosive (HE) material directly influences the reactive behavior under a variety of insults. Furthermore, the preparation method of polymer-bonded explosives (PBX), as well as the constituent material particle size distribution and consolidation parameters, will dominate the microstructural features that are observed. Here, we compare batches of PBX 9501 prepared by the typical wet slurry process and those prepared by resonant acoustic mixing. The “prills” produced by the wet slurry process leads to an inherently different microstructure than the coated powder produced by resonant acoustic mixing. Additionally, we observed that the conditions required to consolidate (press) the material to the nominal PBX 9501 density varied depending on the preparation technique, which also dictates the observed binder distribution. Furthermore, X-ray microcomputed tomography and ultra-small-angle X-ray scattering analyses revealed distinct differences in the void structure and distribution.
75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
Determining reference standard strength for neutron-irradiated reduced activation ferritic/martensitic steel F82H by Bayesian method
The deterministic approach widely adopted in the design of structural components relies on systematically defined design limits using empirically determined safety factors. However, this approach is not always appropriate because structures are subjected to a variety of loads in the practical environment, which may result in excessively conservative design limits. In recent years, a more rigorous probabilistic approach that incorporates material strength distributions has become an important solution. In the probabilistic approach, the probability density functions of material strength properties underpin the design criteria. Here, the objective of this study is to identify the density distribution functions that best describe tensile properties of irradiated F82H to define a reference strength for DEMO design. Due to the limited number of existing data, this study specifically employs a Bayesian prediction method based on Monte Carlo simulations to determine a material reference value with statistical reliability and to investigate its effectiveness. For example, the dependence of tensile properties of 300 °C irradiated materials on irradiation damage and the range predicted by 95% Bayesian estimation was evaluated. As a statistical model for the dose dependence of statistical parameters, the normal distribution exhibited a better fit for 0.2% proof strength and tensile strength, whereas the distribution of total elongation data gave comparable reference values for both the normal and Weibull distribution models. Both models gave comparable criteria for the distribution of total elongation data. The Weibull model also gave better results for uniform elongation. The function best describing the model was a logarithmic law for both 0.2% proof strength and tensile strength, while a power law for both total and uniform elongation, which allowed for more comprehensive data prediction of irradiation data with statistical accuracy for DEMO reactor design.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Planck 2018 results. V. CMB power spectra and likelihoods
We describe the legacy Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) likelihoods derived from the 2018 data release. The overall approach is similar in spirit to the one retained for the 2013 and 2015 data release, with a hybrid method using different approximations at low ( ℓ < 30) and high ( ℓ ≥ 30) multipoles, implementing several methodological and data-analysis refinements compared to previous releases. With more realistic simulations, and better correction and modelling of systematic effects, we can now make full use of the CMB polarization observed in the High Frequency Instrument (HFI) channels. The low-multipole EE cross-spectra from the 100 GHz and 143 GHz data give a constraint on the ΛCDM reionization optical-depth parameter τ to better than 15% (in combination with the TT low- ℓ data and the high- ℓ temperature and polarization data), tightening constraints on all parameters with posterior distributions correlated with τ . We also update the weaker constraint on τ from the joint TEB likelihood using the Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) channels, which was used in 2015 as part of our baseline analysis. At higher multipoles, the CMB temperature spectrum and likelihood are very similar to previous releases. A better model of the temperature-to-polarization leakage and corrections for the effective calibrations of the polarization channels (i.e., the polarization efficiencies) allow us to make full use of polarization spectra, improving the ΛCDM constraints on the parameters θ MC , ω c , ω b , and H 0 by more than 30%, and n s by more than 20% compared to TT-only constraints. Extensive tests on the robustness of the modelling of the polarization data demonstrate good consistency, with some residual modelling uncertainties. At high multipoles, we are now limited mainly by the accuracy of the polarization efficiency modelling. Using our various tests, simulations, and comparison between different high-multipole likelihood implementations, we estimate the consistency of the results to be better than the 0.5 σ level on the ΛCDM parameters, as well as classical single-parameter extensions for the joint likelihood (to be compared to the 0.3 σ levels we achieved in 2015 for the temperature data alone on ΛCDM only). Minor curiosities already present in the previous releases remain, such as the differences between the best-fit ΛCDM parameters for the ℓ < 800 and ℓ > 800 ranges of the power spectrum, or the preference for more smoothing of the power-spectrum peaks than predicted in ΛCDM fits. These are shown to be driven by the temperature power spectrum and are not significantly modified by the inclusion of the polarization data. Overall, the legacy Planck CMB likelihoods provide a robust tool for constraining the cosmological model and represent a reference for future CMB observations.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗