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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

High-throughput multimodal exploration of a nanocrystalline Cu-Ag library

Sputter-deposited, nanocrystalline Cu-Ag thin films produced across a broad compositional and deposition-parameter space were evaluated to unravel the process-structure-property relationships important for creating hard, conductive electrical contacts and coatings. Combinatorial deposition involving pulsed direct current magnetron sputtering of elemental targets enabled swift examination of nearly the full range of alloy compositions and a relevant portion of deposition atomistics. Several high-throughput characterization modalities were employed to evaluate the chemistry, structure, and properties of the films. The resultant hardness, modulus, film density, crystal texture, and resistivity were analyzed in terms of key deposition characteristics (incident atom kinetic energy and incidence angle) predicted by binary-collision, kinematic Monte Carlo simulations. The study revealed improved hardness, parabolic resistivity dependence on composition, and compositional and process dependencies of film tarnishing. The results are discussed in the context of variations in microstructure and film density. Transmission electron microscopy and X-ray diffraction demonstrate several forms of compositional variation including solute segregation to grain boundaries as well as periodic, intragranular compositional modulations. Annealing of a Cu-rich alloy film exhibiting grain boundary segregation showed that this as-deposited, compositional variation is not stable above 100 °C. Finally, the Cu-Ag system is shown to have potential for hard, conductive, tarnish-resistant and room temperature-stable nanocrystalline thin films across the composition space.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Benchmarking boron carbide equation of state using computation and experiment

Boron carbide ( B 4 C ) is of both fundamental scientific and practical interest due to its structural complexity and how it changes upon compression, as well as its many industrial uses and potential for use in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) and high-energy density physics experiments. Here, we report the results of a comprehensive computational study of the equation of state (EOS) of B 4 C in the liquid, warm dense matter, and plasma phases. Our calculations are cross-validated by comparisons with Hugoniot measurements up to 61 megabar from planar shock experiments performed at the National Ignition Facility (NIF). Our computational methods include path integral Monte Carlo, activity expansion, as well as all-electron Green's function Korringa-Kohn-Rostoker and molecular dynamics that are both based on density functional theory. We calculate the pressure-internal energy EOS of B 4 C over a broad range of temperatures ( ~ 6 × 10 3 – 5 × 10 8 K) and densities (0.025–50 g / cm 3 ). We assess that the largest discrepancies between theoretical predictions are ≲ 5 % near the compression maximum at 1– 2 × 10 6 K. This is the warm-dense state in which the K shell significantly ionizes and has posed grand challenges to theory and experiment. By comparing with different EOS models, we find a Purgatorio model (LEOS 2122) that agrees with our calculations. The maximum discrepancies in pressure between our first-principles predictions and LEOS 2122 are ~ 18 % and occur at temperatures between 6 × 10 3 – 2 × 10 5 K, which we believe originate from differences in the ion thermal term and the cold curve that are modeled in LEOS 2122 in comparison with our first-principles calculations. To account for potential differences in the ion thermal term, we have developed three new equation-of-state models that are consistent with theoretical calculations and experiment. We apply these new models to 1D hydrodynamic simulations of a polar direct-drive NIF implosion, demonstrating that these new models are now available for future ICF design studies.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic life-cycle carbon analysis for fast pyrolysis biofuel produced from pine residues: implications of carbon temporal effects

Abstract Background Woody biomass has been considered as a promising feedstock for biofuel production via thermochemical conversion technologies such as fast pyrolysis. Extensive Life Cycle Assessment studies have been completed to evaluate the carbon intensity of woody biomass-derived biofuels via fast pyrolysis. However, most studies assumed that woody biomass such as forest residues is a carbon–neutral feedstock like annual crops, despite a distinctive timeframe it takes to grow woody biomass. Besides, few studies have investigated the impacts of forest dynamics and the temporal effects of carbon on the overall carbon intensity of woody-derived biofuels. This study addressed such gaps by developing a life-cycle carbon analysis framework integrating dynamic modeling for forest and biorefinery systems with a time-based discounted Global Warming Potential (GWP) method developed in this work. The framework analyzed dynamic carbon and energy flows of a supply chain for biofuel production from pine residues via fast pyrolysis. Results The mean carbon intensity of biofuel given by Monte Carlo simulation across three pine growth cases ranges from 40.8–41.2 g CO 2 e MJ −1 (static method) to 51.0–65.2 g CO 2 e MJ −1 (using the time-based discounted GWP method) when combusting biochar for energy recovery. If biochar is utilized as soil amendment, the carbon intensity reduces to 19.0–19.7 g CO 2 e MJ −1 (static method) and 29.6–43.4 g CO 2 e MJ −1 in the time-based method. Forest growth and yields (controlled by forest management strategies) show more significant impacts on biofuel carbon intensity when the temporal effect of carbon is taken into consideration. Variation in forest operations and management (e.g., energy consumption of thinning and harvesting), on the other hand, has little impact on the biofuel carbon intensity. Conclusions The carbon temporal effect, particularly the time lag of carbon sequestration during pine growth, has direct impacts on the carbon intensity of biofuels produced from pine residues from a stand-level pine growth and management point of view. The carbon implications are also significantly impacted by the assumptions of biochar end-of-life cases and forest management strategies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Capabilities of multivariate Bayesian inference toward seismic hazard assessment

Multivariate Bayesian analysis can bring significant benefits to seismic hazard analysis: Its multivariate feature enables computing scalar and vector hazard without making any approximations; Correlations between intensity measures are implicitly modeled, permitting direct simulation of ground motion selection tools such as the conditional mean spectrum and the generalized conditioning intensity measure; and Its updating feature enables a seamless integration of new ground motion data into the hazard results. Here, we first develop a multivariate Bayesian ground motion model through the NGA-West2 database. The model functional form considers fault-type, magnitude, and distance dependencies, and also the linear and the rock intensity dependent site response. We use a hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling to perform Bayesian inference consisting of Gibbs step and a multilevel Metropolis-Hastings step. We then perform several checks on the model and note that its performance is satisfactory. Finally, we illustrate the merits of this multivariate Bayesian analysis, which include: ground motion model updating with ground motion data recorded in the last four years not part of the NGA-West2 database; computation of scalar and vector seismic hazard using the un-updated and updated ground motion models for Los Angeles, CA; and simulation of the conditional mean spectrum under scalar and vector IM conditioning while accounting for different sources of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamics of Polymer Nanocapsule Buckling and Collapse Revealed by In Situ Liquid-Phase TEM

Nanocapsules are hollow nanoscale shells that have applications in drug delivery, batteries, self-healing materials, and as model systems for naturally occurring shell geometries. In many applications, nanocapsules are designed to release their cargo as they buckle and collapse, but the details of this transient buckling process have not been directly observed. In this work, we use in situ liquid-phase transmission electron microscopy to record the electron-irradiation-induced buckling in spherical 60-187 nm polymer capsules with ~3.5 nm walls. We observe in real time the release of aqueous cargo from these nanocapsules and their buckling into morphologies with single or multiple indentations. The in situ buckling of nanoscale capsules is compared to ex situ measurements of collapsed and micrometer-sized capsules and to Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. The shape and dynamics of the collapsing nanocapsules are consistent with MC simulations, which reveal that the excessive wrinkling of nanocapsules with ultrathin walls results from their large Föppl-von Kármán numbers around 10 5 . Our experiments suggest design rules for nanocapsules with the desired buckling response based on parameters such as capsule radius, wall thickness, and collapse rate.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Model validation for inferred hot-spot conditions in National Ignition Facility experiments

Progress toward ignition requires accurately diagnosing current conditions and assessing proximity metrics for implosion experiments on the National Ignition Facility. Hot-spot conditions are not directly measured, but rather inferred, often using simple 0- and 1D models [P. Patel et al., Phys. Plasmas 27, 050901 (2020)]. In this work, we present a detailed accuracy validation exercise using a set of ~20,000 2D simulations encompassing a variety of performance and degradation levels. We find good agreement between the model-inferred pressure and the simulated burn-weighted pressure at peak neutron production and also present results on the precision of inferred quantities using a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo algorithm.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantum many-body simulations of the two-dimensional Fermi-Hubbard model in ultracold optical lattices

Understanding quantum many-body states of correlated electrons is one main theme in modern condensed-matter physics. Given that the Fermi-Hubbard model, the prototype of correlated electrons, was recently realized in ultracold optical lattices, it is highly desirable to have controlled numerical methodology to provide precise finite-temperature results upon doping to directly compare with experiments. Here, we demonstrate the exponential tensor renormalization group (XTRG) algorithm [Chen et al., Phys. Rev. X 8, 031082 (2018)], complemented by independent determinant quantum Monte Carlo, offers a powerful combination of tools for this purpose. XTRG provides full and accurate access to the density matrix and thus various spin and charge correlations, down to an unprecedented low temperature of a few percent of the tunneling energy. Finally, we observe excellent agreement with ultracold fermion measurements at both half filling and finite doping, including the sign-reversal behavior in spin correlations due to formation of magnetic polarons, and the attractive hole-doublon and repulsive hole-hole pairs that are responsible for the peculiar bunching and antibunching behaviors of the antimoments.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sputter-deposited low-stress boron carbide films

Significant challenges have been faced in the manufacturing of low-stress B 4 C films. Here, we demonstrate a set of process parameters for direct-current magnetron sputter deposition of smooth, high-purity, amorphous B 4 C films with near-zero total residual stress and with thicknesses up to 10 μm. Films are characterized by a combination of high-energy ion scattering, x-ray diffraction, electron microscopy, and stress measurements based on substrate curvature. In order to facilitate the process transfer to other sputtering geometries, the favorable deposition conditions are correlated with distributions of landing energies and incident angles of depositing species estimated by Monte Carlo simulations of ballistic collisions and gas phase atomic transport. Based on such simulations, a decrease in compressive stress with increasing Ar working gas pressure is attributed to the corresponding broadening of the angular distribution of depositing species and associated atomic shadowing effects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sputter deposition of high electrical resistivity Au-Ta alloy coatings on rotating substrates

Sputter deposition of gold-tantalum alloy coatings is a key process for manufacturing hohlraums for magnetically-assisted inertial confinement fusion implosions. In this report we describe direct current magnetron sputter deposition of ~ 10 - μ~ 10 - μm-thick films of Au-80 at.% Ta onto rotating sphero-cylindrical hohlraum and planar Si witness substrates. Emphasis is given to how film microstructure and properties are affected by main deposition parameters, including argon working gas pressure, substrate bias, and the source composition (a single alloyed target compared to co-sputtering from two elemental targets). Experimental findings are correlated with distributions of landing energies and incident angles of depositing species calculated by Monte Carlo simulations of ballistic collisions and gas phase atomic transport. Deposition conditions characterized by low energetics of depositing species favor the formation of a β-Ta-like phase. Implications of these results to hohlraum fabrication are discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

A new efficient grain growth model using a random Gaussian-sampled mode filter

This paper presents the use of a Gaussian neighborhood mode filter for predicting grain growth in a manner similar to the solutions obtained by a Monte Carlo Potts model. This flexible grain growth model can quickly utilize modern, computationally optimized data science strategies on graphics processing units to simulate grain growth up to 100 times faster than the state-of-the-art, publicly available Monte Carlo Potts model. We show that, given the correct neighborhood, the mode filter can replicate normal grain growth in two or three dimensions. In addition, the paper briefly demonstrates the ability to model limited anisotropic in grain boundary energy and mobility. Anisotropic grain boundary energy is modeled by defining a weighted mode filter operation. Anisotropic grain boundary mobility is modeled by scaling and orienting the Gaussian neighborhood in a particular direction.

Anisotropy↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computationally Accelerated Discovery of High Entropy Pyrochlore Oxides

High entropy ceramics provide enhanced flexibility for tailoring a wide range of physical properties, emerging from the diverse chemical and configurational degrees of freedom. Expanding upon the endeavors of recently synthesized high entropy ceramics in rock salt, fluorite, spinel, and perovskite structures, we explore the relative feasibility of formation of high entropy pyrochlore oxides, A 2 B 2 O 7 , with multication occupancy of the B-site, estimated from first-principles-based thermodynamic descriptors. Subsequently, we used Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the phase composition, oxygen vacancy concentration, and local ionic segregation as a function of temperature and oxygen partial pressure. In synergy with the theoretical calculations, we have investigated the synthesis of several multicomponent oxides with a pyrochlore composition, related to our computational investigations, resulting in four phase pure and one 97.4% pure high entropy pyrochlore oxides. Ultimately, our approach allows us to evaluate potential impurity phases, ionic disorder, and oxygen vacancy concentration in response to the experimental variables, thereby making realistic predictions that can direct and accelerate experimental synthesis of novel multicomponent ceramics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Initial Uncertainty Analysis of Carbon Tetrachloride Contamination and Remediation in the Ringold A and Lower Mud Units at the Central Plateau

The long-term effectiveness of groundwater cleanup at the Hanford Site Central Plateau depends on predictive models that can capture key uncertainties in contaminant fate and transport. Carbon tetrachloride (CCl 4 ), a persistent and toxic compound, presents particular challenges due to variability in degradation rates, uncertainty in initial plume distribution, and subsurface heterogeneity. These uncertainties directly influence plume persistence, migration pathways, and remedy performance, and thus must be systematically evaluated to support long-term remediation planning. To address these gaps, a large-scale Monte Carlo analysis was conducted using the Plateau to River (P2R) model framework. The modeling approach parameterized three primary uncertainty factors: (1) degradation rate, (2) initial plume distribution, and (3) hydraulic conductivity. Degradation was represented as a first-order process, with half-lives ranging from 70 to 700 years. Initial plume distributions were created using a geostatistical simulation method (sgsim), which generates many equally plausible versions of how contaminants might be distributed underground. From this, 100 different scenarios were mapped onto the P2R grid. Variability in hydraulic conductivity was represented in a similar way, with 100 scenarios each for the Ringold Lower Mud and Ringold A units (layers 6 and 7), based on fitted exponential variograms and conditioned to well data. In total, more than 1000 realizations were simulated to assess plume behavior under uncertainty. Results demonstrate that degradation kinetics exert the strongest control over plume persistence: Shorter half-lives produced rapid mass reduction, while longer half-lives yielded persistent plumes with limited attenuation. A nonlinear response was observed, with steep mass reductions at half-lives greater than 200 years and near-linear declines beyond this threshold, reflecting interactions between degradation and pumping. The initial plume distribution strongly influenced early transport patterns, with broader sources generating larger plume footprints, although pump-and-treat operations constrained plume migration to managed areas. By comparison, hydraulic conductivity variability in the Ringold units had only a secondary influence, modifying spreading behavior without altering the dominant migration pathways governed by source configuration and hydraulic controls. Overall, the analysis highlights that uncertainty in degradation rate and initial plume configuration are the primary drivers of variability in plume predictions, while conductivity heterogeneity plays a limited role. These findings underscore the need for improved site-specific data on degradation processes and source characterization to enhance the reliability of long-term performance assessments and to better inform remedial decision-making at the Central Plateau.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Highly Selective Methane to Methanol Conversion on Inverse SnO 2 /Cu 2 O/Cu(111) Catalysts: Unique Properties of SnO 2 Nanostructures and the Inhibition of the Direct Oxidative Combustion of Methane

Direct methane to methanol (CH 4 → CH 3 OH) conversion in heterogeneous catalysis has been a long-standing challenge due to the difficulties in equalizing the activation of methane and protection of the methanol product at the same reaction conditions. Here, we report an inverse catalyst, consisting of small structures of SnO 2 (0.5-1 nm in size) dispersed on Cu 2 O/Cu(111), for highly selective CH 3 OH production from CH 4 . This system was investigated by combining theoretical [density functional theory calculations (DFT), kinetic Monte Carlo simulations (KMC)] and experimental methods [scanning tunneling microscopy (STM), ambient-pressure X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (AP-XPS)]. The DFT and AP-XPS studies showed that on SnO 2 /Cu 2 O/Cu(111) the conversion of CH 4 by oxygen (O 2 ) preferred complete combustion to carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). The addition of water (H 2 O) enhanced the production of CH 3 OH to nearly 100% selectivity in KMC simulations. This trend was consistent with results of AP-XPS. The presence of water in the reaction environment rendered an extremely high amount of methoxy species (*CH 3 O), a precursor for CH 3 OH production. Further, the high CH 3 OH selectivity of SnO 2 /Cu 2 O/Cu(111) reflected the unique atomic and electronic structure of the supported SnO 2 nanoparticles. As a result, the O 2 adsorption and dissociation, and thus the full combustion of CH 4 to CO 2 , was completely suppressed; while the H 2 O dissociative adsorption was still feasible, providing active hydroxyl species for a truly selective CH 4 to CH 3 OH conversion.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A parameter sensitivity study for simulating DNA damage after proton irradiation using TOPAS-nBio

Monte Carlo (MC) track structure simulation tools are commonly used for predicting radiation induced DNA damage by modeling the physical and chemical reactions at the nanometer scale. However, the outcome of these MC simulations is particularly sensitive to the adopted parameters which vary significantly across studies. In this study, a previously developed full model of nuclear DNA was used to describe the DNA geometry. The TOPAS-nBio MC toolkit was used to investigate the impact of physics and chemistry models as well as three key parameters (the energy threshold for direct damage, the chemical stage time length, and the probability of damage between hydroxyl radical reactions with DNA) on the induction of DNA damage. Our results show that the difference in physics and chemistry models alone can cause differences up to 34% and 16% in the DNA double strand break (DSB) yield, respectively. Additionally, changing the direct damage threshold, chemical stage length, and hydroxyl damage probability can cause differences of up to 28%, 51%, and 71% in predicted DSB yields, respectively, for the configurations in this study.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Determination of the mean energy of fast electron losses and anisotropies through thick-target emission on WEST

Abstract A new method to obtain the mean energy of fast electron losses in fusion plasmas using a versatile multi-energy hard x-ray (HXR) detector is presented. The method is based on measuring the thick-target emission of tungsten in the divertor region produced by fast electron losses interacting with the target and modeling the tungsten spectra by a Monte Carlo code which simulates the interaction between a beam of electrons and a solid target. The mean energy of the fast electron losses is determined through the comparison between the experimental and synthetic emission. The results show that fast electron losses during lower hybrid current drive discharges at WEST have a mean energy of 90–140 keV and represent only 2% of the total heat flux at the target. Additionally, anisotropic HXR emission has been detected for the first time at the WEST core and edge plasma, with opposite directions. It is due to the forward-peak emission of two distinctive populations of fast electrons: co-current fast electrons in the core and counter-current fast electron losses at the inner strike point. In view of future experiments like ITER where electron cyclotron current drive will generate a fast electron population, this technique could serve as a real-time monitor of fast electron losses and eventually feed an actuator on the current drive generation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Verification of Flux Sensitivity Estimates Using the MCNP Tally Perturbation Tool

Nuclear data is commonly used in applications such as nuclear nonproliferation, safeguards, and criticality safety. More specifically, nuclear data is used in predictive simulation codes like the Monte-Carlo N-Particle (MCNP ® ) transport code, Serpent, and similar radiation transport codes. The improvement of nuclear data enables more precise and accurate simulations, which result in higher fidelity designs and reduced operational/procedural costs. Therefore, the improvement of nuclear data is of paramount importance across the nuclear community. Nuclear data is improved and validated through integral benchmark experiments. The design of benchmark experiments is an extensive process; therefore, these experiments are often optimized on multiple characteristics, including sensitivity to the nuclear data, during the design process. Sensitivity is a measure of how much a quantity changes due to changes in independent variables such as experimental configuration. An experimental design that has a larger sensitivity to the nuclear data of interest will have a larger impact on the accuracy and precision of the validated data. Past integral benchmark experiments have primarily used the effective multiplication factor ($k_{eff}$) as the predominant measured quantity; however, experiments designed with other quantities in mind would be able to optimize on validating different areas of the nuclear data. A primary goal of the EUCLID project is to design, constrain, and reduce compensating errors in experiments focused on quantities other than $k_{eff}$ to better validate nuclear data across the board. Currently, there is a capability in MCNP to easily calculate the sensitivity of $k_{eff}$ to specific nuclear data of numerous reactions types and isotopes (KSEN card); however, the sensitivity of other quantities must be estimated in more strenuous manners. For example, the perturbation feature (PERT card) of MCNP can be used to estimate first-order sensitivities of some response in fixed source simulations. A recent announcement revealed that the first- and second-order perturbation features in previous releases of MCNP contained a bug. It was identified that particles were being scored into the wrong energy bin. The bug is in the most recent public release (MCNP6.2); however, a patch has been added to the most up to date version (MCNP6.2.2) that has not been released publicly. A direct comparison of the PERT card results for an F4 (neutron flux averaged over a cell) tally before and after the patch are shown in figure 1. All simulations used in the sensitivity estimates in this report were performed with MCNP6.2.2. This work verifies the patched MCNP perturbation tool by comparing first order sensitivities made using the PERT card to estimates made using manual perturbation of the compact ENDF (ACE) files.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

2011.5 Revision of the Evaluated Nuclear Data Library: ENDL2011.5 (legacy and GNDS), and ENDL2011.5-direct

LLNL’s Nuclear Data and Theory Group has created the 2011.5 revised release of the Evaluated Nuclear Data Library (ENDL2011.5). ENDL2011.5 is designed to support LLNL’s current and future nuclear data needs and will be employed in nuclear reactor, nuclear security and stockpile stewardship simulations with ASC codes. This database is currently the most complete nuclear database for Monte Carlo and deterministic transport of neutrons and charged particles. This library was assembled with strong support from the ASC PEM and Attribution programs, leveraged with support from Campaign 4 and the DOE/Office of Science’s US Nuclear Data Program. This document lists the revisions made in ENDL2011.5 compared with the data existing in the original ENDL2011.2 and ENDL2011.3 releases. These changes are made in parallel with some similar revisions for ENDL2009.5. We also describe ENDL2011.5-direct that directly uses ENDF sources wherever possible.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decoding Golden Eagle Movement Behavior from High-Resolution, Variable-Rate Telemetry Data Through Bayesian Filtering

The recent advances in animal tracking technology have enabled the collection of a vast amount of in situ data regarding the movement of wildlife at high spatiotemporal resolution. These data are usually available at variable time resolutions and contains noise (error) originating from GPS fixes. Decoding movement characteristics, particularly of flying animals, from telemetry data while handling these factors is a challenging yet important task for conservation purposes. Typically, this task is broken into two subtasks: resampling, and model calibration. The resampling subtask converts the variable rate positional data into a constant time interval data, while the model calibration subtask uses the resampled data to tune time-invariant parameters of the proposed models. For telemetry data at high temporal resolutions (order of 1 second), it is very challenging to decouple noise from actual movements using interpolation-based resampling techniques. Any errors introduced during resampling can significantly alter the the calibration and prediction attributes of the movement model. We address this problem through a unified Bayesian state-space framework that can handle both the resampling and calibration tasks in a single step. In addition, we use the speed and heading of the bird from telemetry data to regularize the position information of the bird. We use a Kalman filtering approach to include these nonlinearly related motion parameters within the state space framework. We cross-validated to quantify how this inclusion affects the model performance in estimating true bird movements. The relationship between the true state of the bird and environmental and topographical covariates is then represented parametrically. These parameters are then tuned using stochastic sampling strategies like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We use the telemetry data collected from golden eagles in the western USA to demonstrate the applicability of this approach to build a predictive, probabilistic movement model. Our preliminary results show that this approach provides improved predictive performance in terms of capturing higher-order motion parameters such as angular and horizontal accelerations, which may have simpler and more direct relationships with environmental covariates than corresponding speeds. In this talk, we will demonstrate how this state-space approach benefits the prediction capabilities of a movement model in simulating golden eagle paths through a wind power plant in Wyoming given certain atmospheric conditions. The model outcomes are aimed at informing mitigation strategies that can minimize the potential for collisions of golden eagles with wind turbines.

Bayesian methods↗