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Uncertainty Quantification using Deep Ensembles for Decision Making in Cyber-Physical-Human Systems

In this paper and its companion, Differential Equation Approximation Using Gradient-Boosted Quantile Regression, Robison et al., we examine an approach to quantifying model uncertainty with the aim of increasing the trustworthiness of computational models in human-machine interactions. In Differential Equation Approximation Using Gradient-Boosted Quantile Regression, we focus on gradient-boosted decision trees, while in this one, we give more details about deep ensembles. Uncertainty quantification is crucial for building trustworthy autonomous decision-making agents in human-machine teams. There are two types of uncertainties: aleatoric and epistemic. The former is related to the inherent stochasticity (noise) of the process, whereas the latter is associated with the lack of knowledge or representation capability of models, such as neural networks. By lack of knowledge, we mean the model’s inability to accurately predict outputs for all possible inputs. The aleatory uncertainty can be estimated fairly easily with, for example, filters, whereas epistemic uncertainty is challenging to compute. This paper uses deep ensembles to quantify both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. It can act as an uncertainty-aware surrogate transition model for decision-making frameworks. "Uncertainty-aware" means that the surrogate transition model should make predictions along with confidence in those predictions. In the context of decision-making, the transition models are ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Since ODEs can be simulated to make one-step or multi-step predictions, a good surrogate model for them should perform reasonably well in both modes. In a multi-step approach, the trajectory sampling method TS∞ was used to propagate uncertainty over multiple steps. The cartpole dynamical system was selected to demonstrate the ability of deep ensembles as good surrogate transition models for decision-making frameworks. The deep ensembles modeled the dynamics of cartpole ODEs and made uncertainty-aware predictions in single-step and multi-step transition modes.

CPH systems↗

DOE OSTI2020

A physics-informed operator regression framework for extracting data-driven continuum models

The application of deep learning toward discovery of data-driven models requires careful application of inductive biases to obtain a description of physics which is both accurate and robust. We present here a framework for discovering continuum models from high fidelity molecular simulation data. Our approach applies a neural network parameterization of governing physics in modal space, allowing a characterization of differential operators while providing structure which may be used to impose biases related to symmetry, isotropy, and conservation form. Here, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework for a variety of physics, including local and nonlocal diffusion processes and single and multiphase flows. For the flow physics we demonstrate this approach leads to a learned operator that generalizes to system characteristics not included in the training sets, such as variable particle sizes, densities, and concentration.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Method and apparatus for shape-based energy analysis of solids

A computer-readable medium stores instructions including storing a model of a physical structure and defining a mesh for the model. The mesh includes finite elements, each defined by a respective set of edges. The instructions include, for each finite element, identifying a governing differential equation and a set of complementary functions that exactly satisfy the governing differential equation. The instructions include determining an applied physical stimulus for the physical structure. The instructions include generating an energy optimization model that minimizes a difference between internal energy and external energy of the finite elements in response to the applied physical stimulus. The model includes a matrix of respective scalar multipliers for the complementary functions for each finite element. The instructions include transforming the matrix and calculating a physical parameter of interest. The instructions include, in response to the physical parameter not satisfying a design parameter, updating the model of the physical structure.

Spears, Robert E.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Structure–Capacitance Relationships of Graphene/Ionic Liquid Electrolyte Double Layers

The differential capacitance profile of electrochemical interfaces reflects the physical properties of the double layer. For carbon electrodes and ionic liquid based electrolytes, these capacitance profiles are not fully understood. In this work, we utilize constant voltage molecular dynamics simulations to compute differential capacitance profiles of ionic liquids [BMIm + ][BF 4 - ] and [BMIm + ][TFSI - ] mixed with acetonitrile and 1,2-dichloroethane, at model graphene electrodes. We find that both pure and 10% mole fraction ionic liquid electrolytes exhibit camel shaped capacitance profiles with two peaks on either side of a minimum centered at the potential of zero charge. This profile shape results from electric field induced rearrangement of ion structure within the inner layer closest to the electrode interface. At low potential, the ionic liquid inner layer is concentrated with non-polar tri-fluoromethyl and butyl functional groups of the anions and cations, corresponding to the minimum of the capacitance profiles. With increasing voltage, electrostatic interactions of polar/charged functional groups with the electrode surface compete with these non-polar interactions, leading to ion rearrangement that increases the inner layer charge density and results in higher capacitance. After the ion restructuring is complete, the response saturates and capacitance diminishes. The presence of organic solvent significantly changes the composition of the inner layer. For example, strong non-polar interactions between dichloroethane molecules and the graphene surface substantially block ion/electrode contact at moderate potentials. Overall, our simulations highlight the dynamic nature of the inner region of organic electrolyte double layers, and the sensitive dependence on electrolyte composition and applied voltage.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Brill-Noether-general limit root bundles: absence of vector-like exotics in F-theory Standard Models

Root bundles appear prominently in studies of vector-like spectra of 4d F-theory compactifications. Of particular importance to phenomenology are the Quadrillion F-theory Standard Models (F-theory QSMs). In this work, we analyze a superset of the physical root bundles whose cohomologies encode the vector-like spectra for the matter representations ($3$, $2$) 1/6 , ($\overline{3}$, $1$) -2/3 and ($1$, $1$) 1 . For the family B 3 (Δ$^{°}_{4}$) consisting of $\mathcal{O}$(10 11 ) F-theory QSM geometries, we argue that more than 99.995% of the roots in this superset have no vector-like exotics. This indicates that absence of vector-like exotics in those representations is a very likely scenario in the O(10 11 ) QSM geometries B 3 (Δ$^{°}_{4}$). The QSM geometries come in families of toric 3-folds B 3 (Δ°) obtained from triangulations of certain 3-dimensional polytopes Δ°. The matter curves in X Σ $\large{ϵ}$ B 3 (Δ°) can be deformed to nodal curves which are the same for all spaces in B 3 (Δ°). Therefore, one can probe the vector-like spectra on the entire family B 3 (Δ°) from studies of a few nodal curves. We compute the cohomologies of all limit roots on these nodal curves. In our applications, for the majority of limit roots the cohomologies are determined by line bundle cohomology on rational tree-like curves. For this, we present a computer algorithm. The remaining limit roots, corresponding to circuit-like graphs, are handled by hand. The cohomologies are independent of the relative position of the nodes, except for a few circuits. On these jumping circuits, line bundle cohomologies can jump if nodes are specially aligned. This mirrors classical Brill-Noether jumps. B 3 (Δ°) admits a jumping circuit, but the root bundle constraints pick the canonical bundle and no jump happens.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1976

Boolean integration

This paper presents the necessary and sufficient conditions for a given differential expression to be compatibly integrable and it presents the necessary and sufficient conditions for a given expression to be exactly integrable. Methods are given for integrating a differential expression when it is exactly integrable and when it is compatibly integrable. The physical interpretation is given of the integral of order k, of a differential expression, and it is shown that any differential expression of the proper form is integrable by parts.

Tucker, J. H.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Jacobian-free Newton–Krylov method for the simulation of non-thermal plasma discharges with high-order time integration and physics-based preconditioning

A preconditioning framework for the numerical simulation of non-thermal streamer discharges is developed using the Jacobian-free Newton-Krylov (JFNK) method. A reduced plasma fluid model is considered, consisting of electrons, one positive ion, one negative ion, and the electrostatic potential. Here, the plasma kinetics model includes ionization, electron-ion recombination, electron attachment, electron detachment, and ion-ion recombination. The governing equations are made dimensionless, discretized in space with finite differences, and integrated in time with a fully implicit method based on high-order backward differentiation formulas. The preconditioning framework is based on a linearized form of the governing equations and physics-based operator splitting. The efficiency of the preconditioning strategy is assessed through two test cases: streamer propagation between parallel plates and an axisymmetric pin-to-pin discharge. The fully implicit approach overcomes traditional restrictions in the time step size due to processes such as electron drift, electron diffusion, and dielectric relaxation. Excellent performance is observed through relevant statistics of the JFNK solver, although the number of linear iterations increases for the pin-to-pin discharge when nonlinear numerical boundary conditions are imposed at the electrodes. Performance studies show scalability with O(100-1000) processors for O(10M) unknowns with ample room for optimization.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

On the Convergence of Physics Informed Neural Networks for Linear Second-Order Elliptic and Parabolic Type PDEs

Physics informed neural networks (PINNs) are deep learning based techniques for solving partial differential equations (PDEs) encountered in computational science and engineering. Guided by data and physical laws, PINNs find a neural network that approximates the solution to a system of PDEs. Such a neural network is obtained by minimizing a loss function in which any prior knowledge of PDEs and data are encoded. Despite its remarkable empirical success in one, two or three dimensional problems, there is little theoretical justification for PINNs. As the number of data grows, PINNs generate a sequence of minimizers which correspond to a sequence of neural networks. We want to answer the question: Does the sequence of minimizers converge to the solution to the PDE? We consider two classes of PDEs: linear second-order elliptic and parabolic. By adapting the Schauder approach and the maximum principle, we show that the sequence of minimizers strongly converges to the PDE solution in C 0 . Furthermore, we show that if each minimizer satisfies the initial/boundary conditions, the convergence mode becomes H 1 . Computational examples are provided to illustrate our theoretical findings. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first theoretical work that shows the consistency of PINNs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Open Call LDRD: Physically Informed Autoencoders for Galactic Redshift Regression

Physical constraints have been suggested to make neural network models more generalizable, act scientifically plausible, and be more data-efficient over unconstrained baselines. In this report, we present preliminary work on evaluating the effects of adding soft physical constraints to computer vision neural networks trained to estimate the conditional density of redshift on input galaxy images for the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We introduce physically motivated soft constraint terms that are not implemented with differential or integral operators. We frame this work as a simple ablation study where the effect of including soft physical constraints is compared to an unconstrained baseline. We compare networks using standard point estimate metrics for photometric redshift estimation, as well as metrics to evaluate how faithful our conditional density estimate represents the probability over the ensemble of our test dataset. We find no evidence that the implemented soft physical constraints are more effective regularizers than augmentation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Slow manifold reduction as a systematic tool for revealing the geometry of phase space

Many non-dissipative reduced plasma models can be derived from more fundamental non-dissipative models by restricting to an approximate invariant manifold. I present a general systematic procedure for finding the Hamiltonian formulation of a plasma model that can be derived in this manner. Several illustrative examples are considered in detail.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

On the effectiveness of neural operators at zero-shot weather downscaling

Machine-learning (ML) methods have shown great potential for weather downscaling. These data-driven approaches provide a more efficient alternative for producing high-resolution weather datasets and forecasts compared to physics-based numerical simulations. Neural operators, which learn solution operators for a family of partial differential equations, have shown great success in scientific ML applications involving physics-driven datasets. Neural operators are grid-resolution-invariant and are often evaluated on higher grid resolutions than they are trained on, i.e., zero-shot super-resolution. Given their promising zero-shot super-resolution performance on dynamical systems emulation, we present a critical investigation of their zero-shot weather downscaling capabilities, which is when models are tasked with producing high-resolution outputs using higher upsampling factors than are seen during training. To this end, we create two realistic downscaling experiments with challenging upsampling factors (e.g., 8x and 15x) across data from different simulations: the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) and the Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit. While neural operator-based downscaling models perform better than interpolation and a simple convolutional baseline, we show the surprising performance of an approach that combines a powerful transformer-based model with parameter-free interpolation at zero-shot weather downscaling. We find that this Swin-Transformer-based approach mostly outperforms models with neural operator layers in terms of average error metrics, whereas an Enhanced Super-Resolution Generative Adversarial Network-based approach is better than most models in terms of capturing the physics of the ground truth data. We suggest their use in future work as strong baselines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Unified differentiable digital twin for the IOTA/FAST facility

As the design complexity of modern accelerators grows, there is more interest in using advanced simulations that have fast execution time or produce insights about accelerator state. One notable example of additional information are gradients of physical observables with respect to design parameters produced by differentiable simulations. The IOTA/FAST facility has recently begun a program to implement and experimentally validate a unified start-to-end differentiable digital twin to serve as a virtual accelerator test stand, allowing for rapid prototyping of new software and experiments with minimal beam time costs. In this contribution we will discuss our plans and progress. Specifically, we will cover the selection and benchmarking of both physics and ML codes, the development of generic interfaces between device models and surrogate or physics-based sections, and the export of the parameters through either a deterministic event loop or a fully asynchronous EPICS soft input/output controller. We will also discuss challenges in model calibration and uncertainty quantification, as well as future plans to support larger proton accelerators like PIPII and Booster.

Kuklev, Nikita [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2022

Scalable algorithms for physics-informed neural and graph networks

Physics-informed machine learning (PIML) has emerged as a promising new approach for simulating complex physical and biological systems that are governed by complex multiscale processes for which some data are also available. In some instances, the objective is to discover part of the hidden physics from the available data, and PIML has been shown to be particularly effective for such problems for which conventional methods may fail. Unlike commercial machine learning where training of deep neural networks requires big data, in PIML big data are not available. Instead, we can train such networks from additional information obtained by employing the physical laws and evaluating them at random points in the space–time domain. Such PIML integrates multimodality and multifidelity data with mathematical models, and implements them using neural networks or graph networks. Here, we review some of the prevailing trends in embedding physics into machine learning, using physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) based primarily on feed-forward neural networks and automatic differentiation. For more complex systems or systems of systems and unstructured data, graph neural networks (GNNs) present some distinct advantages, and here we review how physics-informed learning can be accomplished with GNNs based on graph exterior calculus to construct differential operators; we refer to these architectures as physics-informed graph networks (PIGNs). We present representative examples for both forward and inverse problems and discuss what advances are needed to scale up PINNs, PIGNs and more broadly GNNs for large-scale engineering problems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Methodology of the Extraction of Multi-Differential Cross Sections of Charged-Current $\nu_\mu$-Argon Interactions in MicroBooNE Using Wire-Cell $\nu_\mu$CC Selection

Neutrino physics experiments rely on accurate nuclear-interaction models that are in part guided by experimental observations. Multi-differential cross section measurements are particularly valuable for exploring the underlying physics described in these models, making them a significant step forward in the field. This note presents methodology in preparation to unfold neutrino flux-averaged double and triple-differential cross sections of the inclusive muon neutrino charged-current interaction on Argon. This work builds upon the existing framework and methodology presented in recent energy dependent cross section measurements at MicroBooNE using the Wire-Cell tomographic event reconstruction. The signal definition, choice of binning, and handling of estimated detector uncertainties are discussed, and the MicroBooNE simulation model is validated over the multi-dimensional phase space of muon momentum, muon polar angle, and visible hadronic energy.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1989

A direct procedure for interpolation on a structured curvilinear two-dimensional grid

A direct procedure is presented for locally bicubic interpolation on a structured, curvilinear, two-dimensional grid. The physical (Cartesian) space is transformed to a computational space in which the grid is uniform and rectangular by a generalized curvilinear coordinate transformation. Required partial derivative information is obtained by finite differences in the computational space. The partial derivatives in physical space are determined by repeated application of the chain rule for partial differentiation. A bilinear transformation is used to analytically transform the individual quadrilateral cells in physical space into unit squares. The interpolation is performed within each unit square using a piecewise bicubic spline.

Zingg, David W.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Basic Research Needs in Quantum Computing and Networking

Employing quantum mechanical resources in computing, information processing, and networking opens the door to potential exponential advantages over classical counterparts. However, quantifying and realizing such advantages poses extensive scientific and engineering challenges. Department of Energy (DOE) investments have driven steady progress in addressing such challenges. Recently developed quantum algorithms offer asymptotic exponential advantages in speed or accuracy for fundamental scientific problems. These problems include simulating physical systems, solving systems of linear equations, differential equations, and optimization problems. Empirical demonstrations on nascent quantum hardware suggest better performance on contrived computational tasks than classical analogs. However, the requirements for a quantum computer or network to demonstrate an end-to-end rigorously quantifiable performance improvement over classical analogs remains a grand challenge, especially for problems of practical value. In particular, what will be required for quantum technology to ultimately exhibit scalable, rigorous, and transformative performance advantages for practical applications? In July 2023, DOE’s Advanced Scientific Computing Research program in the Office of Science convened the Workshop on Basic Research Needs in Quantum Computing and Networking, where major opportunities and grand challenges were identified. The following five priority research directions (PRDs) were identified as a result of the workshop.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Context-Aware Learning for Inverse Design in Photovoltaics

This document describes progress in the ARPA-E DIFFERENTIATE project titled “Context-Aware Learning for Inverse Design in Photovoltaics” during the period of May 2019 to May 2022. This project is being performed at Iowa State University, New York University, Stanford University, and National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The project aims to develop a new machine learning (ML) framework to significantly accelerate the design of organic microstructures for improved organic photovoltaic performance. In this project, we had developed an inverse design framework using Deep Learning called InvNets for generating microstructures with desired physics-driven properties. As a preliminary product, in Milestone 3, we demonstrated how InvNets show 20% improvement in the performance of the microstructures and over 100X speedup in the performance compared to traditional processes for physics-driven inverse design. Later, in Milestone 6, we demonstrated that InvNets work for more complex physics properties, specifically, generating microstructures for organic photovoltaic cells with desired current-voltage characteristics. Further, in Milestone 4, we explored the idea of using physics-aware surrogates for obtaining solutions of partial differential equations(PDE) called as DiffNets(now called as NeuFENets to avoid ambiguity of names). The connection between both frameworks is that DiffNet surrogates form the physics-aware surrogate in the InvNet framework. Finally in Milestone 8, we extend our framework for other physics domains. Specifically, we explore building geometry-aware NeuFENets by developing physics surrogates that exploit ideas from traditional immersed boundary finite element methods. With these updates, we are able to achieve all the Milestones.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hydropower Cyber-Physical Configurations

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Water Power Technologies Office funded Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Argonne National Laboratory, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to develop a typology to characterize the variety and pervasiveness of cyber-physical configurations across the nation’s hydropower fleet. Outreach to owners and operators returned configurations for 275 hydropower plants or approximately 12% of the fleet. Components (OT and IT), systems, and connections among systems differed among plants according to function, age, position in the river cascade, and many other factors. Seven cyber-physical configuration types labeled A through I, included from 2 to dozens of plants. They were differentiated by how pervasive data and control connections were among cyber-physical components and how frequently control signals paired with data signals in a feedback loop. The flow of data and control within each type implies what cybersecurity vulnerabilities may exist, and what mitigation actions may be most effective. A self-assessment approach allows plant operators to identify the configuration type similar to their plant and link to the lessons learned and best practices information. The cyber-physical typology reinforces the idea that hydropower facilities vary widely, but it also identifies groups that highlight similarities in how their cyber-physical components interact. This helps address fleetwide cybersecurity needs by identifying a reasonable number of configuration types that share risks, vulnerabilities, and potential mitigations.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗