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At least 253 records · Page 14

Sister Rod Destructive Examinations (FY22) Appendix E: Mechanical Testing - Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition

As a part of the DOE NE High Burnup Spent Fuel Data Project, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is performing destructive examinations (DEs) of high burnup (HBU) (>45 GWd/MTU) spent nuclear fuel (SNF) rods from the North Anna Nuclear Power Station operated by Dominion Energy. The SNF rods, called sister rods or sibling rods, are all HBU and include four different kinds of fuel rod cladding: standard Zircaloy-4 (Zirc-4), low-tin Zirc-4, ZIRLO, and M5. The DEs are being conducted to obtain a baseline of the HBU rod’s condition before dry storage and are focused on understanding overall SNF rod strength and durability. Composite fuel and defueled cladding will be tested to derive material properties. Although the data generated can be used for multiple purposes, one primary goal for obtaining the post-irradiation examination data and the associated measured mechanical properties is to support SNF dry storage licensing and relicensing activities by (1) addressing identified knowledge gaps and (2) enhancing the technical basis for post-storage transportation, handling, and subsequent disposition. This report documents the status of the ORNL Phase 1 DE activities related to the mechanical testing of selected sister rods in Phase 1 of the sister rod test program.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Sister Rod Destructive Examinations (FY22) Appendix F: Cyclic Integrated Reversible-Bending Fatigue Tests

This report documents work performed under the Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition’s Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology program for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE). This work was performed to fulfill Level 3 Milestone M3SF-22OR010201046, “Draft FY2022 ORNL Report on High Burnup Sibling Pin Testing Results,” within work package SF-22OR01020104 and is an update to the work reported in M2SF-22OR010201047, M2SF-21OR010201032, M2SF-19ORO010201026 and M2SF-19OR010201028. As a part of DOE NE High Burnup Spent Fuel Data Project, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is performing destructive examinations (DEs) of high burnup (HBU) (>45 GWd/MTU) spent nuclear fuel (SNF) rods from the North Anna Nuclear Power Station operated by Dominion Energy. The SNF rods, called sister rods or sibling rods, are all HBU and include four different kinds of fuel rod cladding: standard Zircaloy-4 (Zirc-4), low-tin (LT) Zirc-4, ZIRLO, and M5. The DEs are being conducted to obtain a baseline of the HBU rods’ condition before dry storage and are focused on understanding overall SNF rod strength and durability. Composite fuel and defueled cladding will be tested to derive material properties. Although the data generated can be used for multiple purposes, one primary goal for obtaining the post-irradiation examination data and the associated measured mechanical properties is to support SNF dry storage licensing and relicensing activities by (1) addressing identified knowledge gaps and (2) enhancing the technical basis for post-storage transportation, handling, and subsequent disposition. This appendix documents the status of the ORNL Phase 1 DE activities related to tests of the sister rods using the Cyclic Integrated Reversible-Bending Fatigue Tester (CIRFT) in Phase 1 of the sister rod test program.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Sister Rod Destructive Examinations (FY23) Appendix A: Full-Length Rod Heat Treatments

As a part of DOE NE High Burnup Spent Fuel Data Project, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is performing destructive examinations (DEs) of high burnup (HBU) (>45 GWd/MTU) spent nuclear fuel (SNF) rods from the North Anna Nuclear Power Station operated by Dominion Energy. The SNF rods, called sister rods or sibling rods, are all HBU and include four different kinds of fuel rod cladding: standard Zircaloy-4 (Zirc-4), low-tin Zirc-4, ZIRLO, and M5. The DEs are being conducted to obtain a baseline of the HBU rod’s condition before dry storage and are focused on understanding overall SNF rod strength and durability. Composite fuel and defueled cladding will be tested to derive material properties. Although the data generated can be used for multiple purposes, one primary goal for obtaining the post-irradiation examination data and the associated measured mechanical properties is to support SNF dry storage licensing and relicensing activities by (1) addressing identified knowledge gaps and (2) enhancing the technical basis for post-storage transportation, handling, and subsequent disposition. This report documents the status of the ORNL Phase 1 DE activities related to full-length rod heat treatments (FHT) applied to selected sister rods in Phase 1 of the sister rod test program.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Sister Rod Destructive Examinations (FY22) Appendix E: Mechanical Testing

As a part of the DOE NE High Burnup Spent Fuel Data Project, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is performing destructive examinations (DEs) of high burnup (HBU) (>45 GWd/MTU) spent nuclear fuel (SNF) rods from the North Anna Nuclear Power Station operated by Dominion Energy. The SNF rods, called sister rods or sibling rods, are all HBU and include four different kinds of fuel rod cladding: standard Zircaloy-4 (Zirc-4), low-tin Zirc-4, ZIRLO, and M5. The DEs are being conducted to obtain a baseline of the HBU rod’s condition before dry storage and are focused on understanding overall SNF rod strength and durability. Composite fuel and defueled cladding will be tested to derive material properties. Although the data generated can be used for multiple purposes, one primary goal for obtaining the post-irradiation examination data and the associated measured mechanical properties is to support SNF dry storage licensing and relicensing activities by (1) addressing identified knowledge gaps and (2) enhancing the technical basis for post-storage transportation, handling, and subsequent disposition.This appendix documents the status of the ORNL Phase 1 DE activities related to the mechanical testing of selected sister rods in Phase 1 of the sister rod test program.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Sister Rod Destructive Examinations (FY23) Appendix D: Fission Gas, Fuel Burnup, and Fuel Isotopic Measurements

As a part of DOE NE High Burnup Spent Fuel Data Project, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is performing destructive examinations (DEs) of high burnup (HBU) (>45 GWd/MTU) spent nuclear fuel (SNF) rods from the North Anna Nuclear Power Station operated by Dominion Energy. The SNF rods, called sister rods or sibling rods, are all HBU and include four different kinds of fuel rod cladding: standard Zircaloy-4 (Zirc-4), low-tin (LT) Zirc-4, ZIRLO, and M5. The DEs are being conducted to obtain a baseline of the HBU rod’s condition before dry storage and are focused on understanding overall SNF rod strength and durability. Composite fuel and defueled cladding will be tested to derive material properties. Although the data generated can be used for multiple purposes, one primary goal for obtaining the post-irradiation examination data and the associated measured mechanical properties is to support SNF dry storage licensing and relicensing activities by (1) addressing identified knowledge gaps and (2) enhancing the technical basis for post-storage transportation, handling, and subsequent disposition. This appendix documents the status of the ORNL Phase 1 DE activities related to fission gas sample analysis, fuel burnup analysis, and fuel isotopic analysis of selected sister specimens in Phase 1 of the sister rod test program.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Sister Rod Destructive Examinations (FY23)

As a part of DOE NE High Burnup Spent Fuel Data Project, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is performing destructive examinations (DEs) of high burnup (HBU) (>45 GWd/MTU) spent nuclear fuel (SNF) rods from the North Anna Nuclear Power Station operated by Dominion Energy. The SNF rods, called sister rods or sibling rods, are all HBU and include four different kinds of fuel rod cladding: standard Zircaloy-4 (Zirc-4), low-tin (LT) Zirc-4, ZIRLO, and M5. The DEs are being conducted to obtain a baseline of the HBU rod’s condition before dry storage and are focused on understanding overall SNF rod strength and durability. Composite fuel and defueled cladding will be tested to derive material properties. Although the data generated can be used for multiple purposes, one primary goal for obtaining the post-irradiation examination data and the associated measured mechanical properties is to support SNF dry storage licensing and relicensing activities by (1) addressing identified knowledge gaps and (2) enhancing the technical basis for post-storage transportation, handling, and subsequent disposition. This report provides a cumulative status report of the testing progress, data accumulated, and conclusions reached as a part of the program.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Sister Rod Destructive Examinations (FY23) Appendix B: Segmentation, Defueling, Metallographic Data and Total Cladding Hydrogen

As a part of the DOE-NE High Burnup Spent Fuel Data Project, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is performing destructive examinations (DEs) of high burnup (HBU) (>45 GWd/MTU) spent nuclear fuel (SNF) rods from the North Anna Nuclear Power Station operated by Dominion Energy. The SNF rods, called sister rods or sibling rods are all HBU and include four different kinds of fuel rod cladding: standard Zircaloy-4 (Zirc-4), low-tin (LT) Zirc-4, ZIRLO ® , and M5 ® . The DEs are being conducted to obtain a baseline of the HBU rod’s condition before dry storage and are focused on understanding overall SNF rod strength and durability. Both composite fuel and defueled cladding will be tested to derive material properties. Although the data generated can be used for multiple purposes, one primary goal for obtaining the post-irradiation examination data and associated measured mechanical properties is to support SNF dry storage licensing and relicensing activities by (1) addressing identified knowledge gaps and (2) enhancing the technical basis for post-storage transportation, handling, and subsequent disposition of the SNF. This report documents the status of the ORNL Phase 1 DE activities related to: Rough segmentation (RS), Defueling (DEF), DE.02 optical microscopy (MET), and DE.03, cladding total hydrogen measurements. It is a cumulative update to the FY22 status report.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Sister Rod Destructive Examinations (FY23) Appendix C: Rod Internal Pressure, Void Volume, and Gas Transmission Tests

As a part of the DOE NE High Burnup Spent Fuel Data Project, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is performing destructive examinations (DEs) of high burnup (HBU) (>45 GWD/MTU) spent nuclear fuel (SNF) rods from the North Anna Nuclear Power Station operated by Dominion Energy. The SNF rods, called the sister rods or sibling rods, are all HBU and include four different kinds of fuel rod cladding: standard Zircaloy-4 (Zirc-4), low-tin (LT) Zirc-4, ZIRLO, and M5. The DEs are being conducted to obtain a baseline of the HBU rod’s condition before dry storage and are focused on understanding overall SNF rod strength and durability. Both fuel rods and empty cladding will be tested to derive material properties. Although the data generated can be used for multiple purposes, one primary goal for obtaining the postirradiation examination data and the associated measured mechanical properties is to support SNF dry storage licensing and relicensing activities by (1) addressing identified knowledge gaps and (2) enhancing the technical basis for post-storage transportation, handling, and consolidation activities. This appendix documents the status of the ORNL Phase 1 DE activities related to rod internal pressure and void volume measurement techniques, fission gas stack flow measurements applied to selected sister rods, and fission gas release calculations in Phase 1 of the sister rod test program.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Sister Rod Destructive Examinations (FY22) Appendix C: Rod Internal Pressure, Void Volume, and Gas Transmission Tests

As a part of the DOE NE High Burnup Spent Fuel Data Project, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is performing destructive examinations (DEs) of high burnup (HBU) (>45 GWD/MTU) spent nuclear fuel (SNF) rods from the North Anna Nuclear Power Station operated by Dominion Energy [C-1]. The SNF rods, called the sister rods or sibling rods, are all HBU and include four different kinds of fuel rod cladding: standard Zircaloy-4 (Zirc-4), low-tin (LT) Zirc-4, ZIRLO, and M5. The DEs are being conducted to obtain a baseline of the HBU rod’s condition before dry storage and are focused on understanding overall SNF rod strength and durability. Both fuel rods and empty cladding will be tested to derive material properties. Although the data generated can be used for multiple purposes, one primary goal for obtaining the postirradiation examination data and the associated measured mechanical properties is to support SNF dry storage licensing and relicensing activities by (1) addressing identified knowledge gaps and (2) enhancing the technical basis for post-storage transportation, handling, and consolidation activities. This appendix documents the status of the ORNL Phase 1 DE activities [C-2, C-3] related to rod internal pressure and void volume measurement techniques, fission gas stack flow measurements applied to selected sister rods, and fission gas release calculations in Phase 1 of the sister rod test program.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Sister Rod Destructive Examinations (FY23) Appendix E2: Four-Point Bend Fractured Specimen Images

This report documents work performed under the Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition’s Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology program for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE). This work was performed to fulfill Level 2 Milestone M2SF-24OR010201024, “FY23 ORNL Testing on Sibling Pins,” within work package SF-24OR01020102 and is an update to the work reported in M2SF-23OR010201024, M2SF-22OR010201047, M2SF-21OR010201032, M2SF-19ORO010201026, and M2SF-19OR010201028. As a part of the DOE NE High Burnup Spent Fuel Data Project, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is performing destructive examinations (DEs) of high burnup (HBU) (>45 GWd/MTU) spent nuclear fuel (SNF) rods from the North Anna Nuclear Power Station operated by Dominion Energy. The SNF rods, called sister rods or sibling rods, are all HBU and include four different kinds of fuel rod cladding: standard Zircaloy-4 (Zirc-4), low-tin Zirc-4, ZIRLO, and M5. The DEs are being conducted to obtain a baseline of the HBU rods’ condition before they are sent to dry storage and are focused on gaining an understanding of overall SNF rod strength and durability. Composite fuel and defueled cladding will be tested to derive material properties. Although the data generated can be used for multiple purposes, one primary goal for obtaining the post-irradiation examination data and the associated measured mechanical properties is to support SNF dry storage licensing and relicensing activities by (1) addressing identified knowledge gaps and (2) enhancing the technical basis for post-storage transportation, handling, and subsequent disposition. This report documents the status of the ORNL Phase 1 DE activities related to the mechanical testing of selected sister rods in Phase 1 of the sister rod test program. This appendix provides images of the segments broken in four-point bending (4PB).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Causal Factors and Adverse Events of Aviation Accidents and Incidents Related to Integrated Vehicle Health Management

Causal factors in aviation accidents and incidents related to system/component failure/malfunction (SCFM) were examined for Federal Aviation Regulation Parts 121 and 135 operations to establish future requirements for the NASA Aviation Safety Program s Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) Project. Data analyzed includes National Transportation Safety Board (NSTB) accident data (1988 to 2003), Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) incident data (1988 to 2003), and Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) incident data (1993 to 2008). Failure modes and effects analyses were examined to identify possible modes of SCFM. A table of potential adverse conditions was developed to help evaluate IVHM research technologies. Tables present details of specific SCFM for the incidents and accidents. Of the 370 NTSB accidents affected by SCFM, 48 percent involved the engine or fuel system, and 31 percent involved landing gear or hydraulic failure and malfunctions. A total of 35 percent of all SCFM accidents were caused by improper maintenance. Of the 7732 FAA database incidents affected by SCFM, 33 percent involved landing gear or hydraulics, and 33 percent involved the engine and fuel system. The most frequent SCFM found in ASRS were turbine engine, pressurization system, hydraulic main system, flight management system/flight management computer, and engine. Because the IVHM Project does not address maintenance issues, and landing gear and hydraulic systems accidents are usually not fatal, the focus of research should be those SCFMs that occur in the engine/fuel and flight control/structures systems as well as power systems.

Reveley, Mary S.↗

Fatigue Test Result for High Burnup Pressurized Water Reactor Rods

The High Burnup Spent Fuel Data Project, sponsored by DOE-NE, is focused on understanding the effects of long-term storage and transportation on high burnup (HBU) (>45 gigawatt days per metric ton uranium) light water reactor fuel. The experiment includes 32 HBU spent nuclear fuel (SNF) assemblies that will be stored in a typical Independent Spent Fuel Storage Installation (ISFSI) and 25 sister rods - nine SNF rods that were removed from the fuel assemblies prior to insertion to the ISFSI and 16 SNF rods removed from similar HBU assemblies. The sister rods provide a baseline of the condition of the HBU rods prior to loading, drying, and long-term dry storage. Destructive examinations of the sister rods are focused on understanding overall SNF rod strength and durability. Both composite fuel and empty cladding will be tested to derive material properties. While the data generated can be used for multiple purposes, a primary goal of the sister rod PIE data and associated measured mechanical properties is to support existing fuel storage licensing and relicensing activities by addressing identified knowledge gaps, and enhance the technical basis for post-storage transportation, handling, and consolidation activities. Fatigue tests of HBU M5-clad, ZIRLO-clad, Zircaloy-4, and low tin Zircaloy-4 segments have been completed using ORNL’s Cyclic Integral Reversible Fatigue Tester (CIRFT). This is the first time ZIRLO-clad rods have been tested. Some of the segments were heat-treated to understand the effects of thermal transients such as those encountered during dry storage vacuum drying on the fatigue lifetime. This paper presents results of the fatigue tests obtained to date and discusses planned future tests.

Montgomery, Rose↗

Controlled Vocabularies Boost International Participation and Normalization of Searches

The Global Change Master Directory's (GCMD) science staff set out to document Earth science data and provide a mechanism for it's discovery in fulfillment of a commitment to NASA's Earth Science progam and to the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites' (CEOS) International Directory Network (IDN.) At the time, whether to offer a controlled vocabulary search or a free-text search was resolved with a decision to support both. The feedback from the user community indicated that being asked to independently determine the appropriate 'English" words through a free-text search would be very difficult. The preference was to be 'prompted' for relevant keywords through the use of a hierarchy of well-designed science keywords. The controlled keywords serve to 'normalize' the search through knowledgeable input by metadata providers. Earth science keyword taxonomies were developed, rules for additions, deletions, and modifications were created. Secondary sets of controlled vocabularies for related descriptors such as projects, data centers, instruments, platforms, related data set link types, and locations, along with free-text searches assist users in further refining their search results. Through this robust 'search and refine' capability in the GCMD users are directed to the data and services they seek. The next step in guiding users more directly to the resources they desire is to build a 'reasoning' capability for search through the use of ontologies. Incorporating twelve sets of Earth science keyword taxonomies has boosted the GCMD S ability to help users define and more directly retrieve data of choice.

Olsen, Lola M.↗

Multiscale Characterization of Additive Manufacturing Components with Computed Tomography, 3D X-ray Microscopy, and Deep Learning

Additive manufacturing (AM) facilitates the creation of complex-geometry parts, driving advancements in lightweight aerospace components, high-efficiency engine cooling channels, and customized medical implants. However, ensuring the quality and reliability of AM parts remains challenging due to internal defects, surface irregularities, porosity, and residual trapped powder, which are often inaccessible to traditional inspection methods. Recent developments in X-ray computed tomography (XCT) and 3D X-ray microscopy (XRM), particularly systems equipped with resolution-at-a-distance (RaaD™) capabilities, enable high-resolution, non-destructive evaluation of AM components across multiple scales, from sub-micrometer to macroscopic levels. This paper explores modern XCT and XRM techniques for multiscale characterization of AM parts, focusing on their ability to detect and analyze defects such as porosity, cracks, inclusions, and surface roughness, while offering insights into defect formation mechanisms, material properties, and process-induced variations. The integration of deep learning (DL) frameworks, including Simurgh, DeepRecon, and DeepScout, enhances XCT/XRM workflows by reducing scan times, improving resolution recovery, and enabling accurate defect detection even with limited projection data. These DL-based methods overcome limitations of traditional reconstruction techniques, enabling faster, more reliable characterization of dense materials like Inconel 718 and novel alloys such as AlCe. Applications include process parameter optimization, high-throughput quality control, and multistage AM process evaluation, with DL-enhanced workflows accelerating analysis times from weeks to days. Correlative imaging approaches further validate XCT and XRM data against scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images of physically sectioned samples, confirming the accuracy of DL-based reconstructions and enabling comprehensive defect analysis. While challenges remain in generalizing DL models to diverse materials and imaging conditions, improvements in resolution, noise reduction, and defect detection highlight the transformative potential of these methods. This multiscale and correlative approach enables precise identification and correlation of microstructural features with the overall performance of AM components. By integrating advanced XCT, XRM, and DL techniques, this paper demonstrates a significant leap forward in AM characterization, offering valuable insights into the relationships between processing parameters, microstructure, and part performance, and driving innovations that enhance the quality and reliability of AM products for demanding industrial applications.

Additive manufacturing↗

An adaptive adversarial domain adaptation approach for corn yield prediction

Recently, statistical machine learning and deep learning methods have been widely explored for corn yield prediction. Though successful, machine learning models generated within a specific spatial domain often lose their validity when directly applied to new regions. To address this issue, we designed an unsupervised adaptive domain adversarial neural network (ADANN). Specifically, through domain adversarial training, the ADANN model reduced the impact of domain shift by projecting data from different domains into the same subspace. Also, the ADANN model was designed to be trained in an adaptive way, which guaranteed the model can learn the domain-invariant features and perform accurate yield prediction simultaneously. Informative variables including time-series vegetation indices and sequential weather observations were first collected from multiple data sources and aggregated to the county level. Then, we trained the ADANN model with the extracted features and corresponding reported county-level corn yield from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Finally, the trained model was evaluated in four testing years 2016–2019. The U.S. corn belt was used as the study area and counties under study were grouped into two diverse ecological regions. Overall, the experimental results showed that the developed ADANN model had better performance than three other state-of-the-art machine learning models in both local experiments (train and test in the same region) and transfer experiments (train and test in different regions). As the first study using adversarial learning for crop yield prediction, this research demonstrates a novel solution for improving model transferability on crop yield prediction.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Metallographic examinations and hydrogen measurements of high-burnup spent nuclear fuel cladding

In the US, commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) is transferred to interim dry storage casks where it will be stored for decades awaiting transport to a consolidated interim storage facility or a geologic repository. Because the fuel rod cladding is the first barrier against any radioactive material release, understanding the behavior of SNF cladding, particularly at high burnup (HBU), in dry storage conditions is crucial to safely store and transport the spent fuel. In this study, a series of metallographic examinations and cladding hydrogen measurements were conducted on HBU SNF cladding at Oak Ridge National Laboratory as a part of the High Burnup Spent Fuel Data Project, which is sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE). Here, t o investigate the effect of simulated drying conditions on the cladding, three as-received fuel rods with different cladding materials—M5, ZIRLO, and Zircaloy-4—were heated to 400°C and then slow-cooled to room temperature. The pellet and cladding were then qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed and compared in terms of pellet crack morphology, HBU rim, waterside oxide, cladding H, and cladding hydride morphologies. This paper presents and discusses the results of these analyses in detail.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Hyperactive nanobacteria with host-dependent traits pervade Omnitrophota

Abstract Candidate bacterial phylum Omnitrophota has not been isolated and is poorly understood. We analysed 72 newly sequenced and 349 existing Omnitrophota genomes representing 6 classes and 276 species, along with Earth Microbiome Project data to evaluate habitat, metabolic traits and lifestyles. We applied fluorescence-activated cell sorting and differential size filtration, and showed that most Omnitrophota are ultra-small (~0.2 μm) cells that are found in water, sediments and soils. Omnitrophota genomes in 6 classes are reduced, but maintain major biosynthetic and energy conservation pathways, including acetogenesis (with or without the Wood-Ljungdahl pathway) and diverse respirations. At least 64% of Omnitrophota genomes encode gene clusters typical of bacterial symbionts, suggesting host-associated lifestyles. We repurposed quantitative stable-isotope probing data from soils dominated by andesite, basalt or granite weathering and identified 3 families with high isotope uptake consistent with obligate bacterial predators. We propose that most Omnitrophota inhabit various ecosystems as predators or parasites.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying airborne fraction trends and the destination of anthropogenic CO 2 by tracking carbon flows in a simple climate model

Abstract Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations have increased as a direct result of human activity and are at their highest level over the last 2 million years, with profound impacts on the Earth system. However, the magnitude and future dynamics of land and ocean carbon sinks are not well understood; therefore, the amount of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions that remain in the atmosphere (the airborne fraction) is poorly constrained. This work aims to quantify the sources and controls of atmospheric CO 2 , the fate of anthropogenic CO 2 over time, and the likelihood of a trend in the airborne fraction. We use Hector v3.0, a coupled simple climate and carbon cycle model with the novel ability to explicitly track carbon as it flows through the Earth system. We use key model parameters in a Monte Carlo analysis of 15 000 model runs from 1750 to 2300. Results are filtered for physical realism against historical observations and CMIP6 projection data, and we calculate the relative importance of parameters controlling how much anthropogenic carbon ends up in the atmosphere. Modeled airborne fraction was roughly 52%, consistent with observational studies. The overwhelming majority of model runs exhibited a negative trend in the airborne fraction from 1960–2020, implying that current-day land and ocean sinks are proportionally taking up more carbon than the atmosphere. However, the percentage of atmospheric CO 2 derived from anthropogenic origins can be much higher because of Earth system feedbacks. We find it peaks at over 90% between 2010–2050. Moreover, when looking at the destination of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions, only a quarter ends up in the atmosphere while more than half of emissions are taken up by the land sink on centennial timescales. This study evaluates the likelihood of airborne fraction trends and provides insights into the dynamics of anthropogenic CO 2 in the Earth system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗