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At least 253 records · Page 14

An error analysis of tropical cyclone divergence and vorticity fields derived from satellite cloud winds on the Atmospheric and Oceanographic Information Processing System (AOIPS)

An advanced Man-Interactive image and data processing system (AOIPS) was developed to extract basic meteorological parameters from satellite data and to perform further analyses. The errors in the satellite derived cloud wind fields for tropical cyclones are investigated. The propagation of these errors through the AOIPS system and their effects on the analysis of horizontal divergence and relative vorticity are evaluated.

Hasler, A. F.↗

Estimating tropical cyclone outer surface winds from satellite microwave data

Warm temperature anomalies over tropical cyclones are sensed by the 55.45 GHz channel of the Nimbus 6 Scanning Microwave Spectrometer. Radial brightness temperature gradients are related to radial surface pressure gradients through the hydrostatic and radiative transfer equations. Surface wind speeds outside of the radius of maximum wind are calculated from the pressure gradients and compared with observations.

Kidder, S. Q.↗

Determination of tropical cyclone surface pressure and winds from satellite microwave data

An approach to the problem of deducing wind speed and pressure around tropical cyclones is presented. The technique, called the Surface Wind Inference from Microwave data (SWIM technique, uses satellites microwave sounder data to measure upper tropospheric temperature anomalies which may then be related to surface pressure anomalies through the hydrostatic and radiative transfer equations. Surface pressure gradients outside of the radius of maximum wind are estimated for the first time. Future instruments may be able to estimate central pressure with + or - 0/1 kPa accuracy.

Kidder, S. Q.↗

Estimating tropical cyclone central pressure and outer winds from satellite microwave data

A new technique is presented for estimating central pressure and surface winds outside of the radius of maximum winds from brightness temperatures measured by the SCAMS on Nimbus 6. The problem of estimating maximum surface winds is not treated because the spatial resolution of the radiometer is not high enough for this purpose. The technique is developed on the basis of measurements over eight typhoons and five hurricanes during 1975. It is shown that the warm 55.45-GHz brightness temperature anomaly previously observed over Typhoon June can be found over other tropical cyclones. Maximum brightness temperature anomaly correlates with central pressure with a correlation coefficient of -0.859. Outer surface wind speeds are calculated by assuming gradient balance and using the regression between brightness temperature anomaly and central pressure to estimate pressure gradients.

Kidder, S. Q.↗

Martian extratropical cyclones

Physical properties of summer-season baroclinic waves on Mars are discussed on the basis of vidicon images and infrared thermal mapping generated by Viking Orbiter 1. The two northern-hemisphere storm systems examined here appear to be similar to terrestrial mid-latitude cyclonic storms. The Martian storm clouds are probably composed of water ice, rather than dust or CO2 ice particles.

Hunt, G. E.↗

Tropical cyclone intensities from satellite microwave data

Radial profiles of mean 1000 mb to 250 mb temperature from the Nimbus 6 scanning microwave spectrometer (SCAMS) were constructed around eight intensifying tropical storms in the western Pacific. Seven storms showed distinct inward temperature gradients required for intensification; the eighth displayed no inward gradient and was decaying 24 hours later. The possibility that satellite data might be used to forecast tropical cyclone turning motion was investigated using estimates obtained from Nimbus 6 SCAMS data tapes of the mean 1000 mb to 250 mb temperature field around eleven tropical storms in 1975. Analysis of these data show that for turning storms, in all but one case, the turn was signaled 24 hours in advance by a significant temperature gradient perpendicular to the storm's path, at a distance of 9 deg to 13 deg in front of the storm. A thresholding technique was applied to the North Central U.S. during the summer to estimate precipitation frequency. except

Vonderhaar, T. H.↗

An objective method for forecasting tropical cyclone intensity using Nimbus-5 electrically scanning microwave radiometer measurements

An empirical analysis program, based on finding an optimal representation of the data, is applied to 120 observations of 29 1973 and 1974 North Pacific tropical cyclones. It is found that the algorithms developed from the Nimbus-5 Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer (ESMR-5) base alone outperformed the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) operational forecast for the 48 and 72 hour maximum wind speed. It is also found that the ESMR-5 data base, when combined with the non-satellite base, produced algorithms that improved the 24 and 48 hour maximum wind-speed forecast by as much as 10% and the 72 hour maximum wind forecast by approximately 16% as compared to the forecast obtained from the algorithms developed from the non-satellite data base alone.

Hunter, H. E.↗

An analysis of the LFM-11 simulations of the Presidents' Day Cyclone, February 18-19, 1979

The performance of the LFM-11 model is considered for the Presidents' Day Cyclone of 1979, noting particularly the model's forecast of upper and lower level jets. Model data are presented for three periods prior to cyclogenesis: (1) 0000 GMT 18 Feb. 1979; (2) 1200 GMT 18 Feb. 1979; and (3) 0000 GMT 19 Feb. 1979. The results show tha the model did not accurately simulate an indirect circulation for the noticeably supergeostrophic STJ on 18 February in response to the confluent PFJ located in the northeast. Future work will examine to what extent the model's poor performance is a function of poor boundary layer representation or poor jet streak simulation with respect to the STJ and LLJ.

Uccellini, L. W.↗

Monitoring tropical-cyclone intensity using environmental wind fields derived from short-interval satellite images

The feasibility of predicting changes in tropical storm intensity based on satellite observations of the dynamical relationships between the large-scale upper and lower tropospheric circulations surrounding the cyclone and the characteristics of the storm's inner core is studied. Rapid-scan visible images from the SMS-1 and GOES-1 satellites were used to examine the local change in relative angular momentum (RAM), the lower and upper tropospheric environmental areal mean relative vorticity and transverse circulation on three consecutive days for tropical storms Caroline (August, 1975), Anita (August and September, 1977) and Ella (September, 1978). The three case studies suggest that storm intensification may be predicted from the storm's local change of net RAM, with this quantity best correlated with storm intensification after a time lag of 6 hours. Intensification is also found to be related to the environmental lower and upper tropospheric areal-mean relative vorticity, and to the upper tropospheric environmental circulation, which acts either to hinder or to enhance the storm's anticyclonic outflow channels.

Rodgers, E.↗

Forecasting tropical cyclone recurvature with upper tropospheric winds

Data from 17 tropical cyclones during the 1974 through 1979 hurricane seasons are used to investigate whether the high level winds far to the northwest, north and northeast of the hurricane center can be used to predict hurricane track recurvature. When the man 200-mb winds 1500 to 2000 km northwest and north of the storm center equal or exceed 20 m/s, 80 per cent of the storms recurved before traveling as much as 12 degrees of longitude farther west. The high winds were also used to predict change in direction of forward motion during the next 72 hours. The regression equations developed explain up to 41 per cent of the variance in future direction. In addition to the geostrophic winds used, winds were also obtained by tracking clouds with successive satellite imagery. The u-components of the satellite winds are highly correlated with the geostrophic winds at 200-mb and could probably be used instead of them when available. The v-components are less highly correlated.

Gentry, R. C.↗

A satellite stereoscopic technique to estimate tropical cyclone intensity

The techniques used to obtain the mean equivalent temperature of the eye wall for Hurricanes Frederic (1979) and Allen (1980) using GOES satellite IR and stereoscopic observations are described. The eye wall is the area of greatest convection near the center of the storm, and is bounded by the inner radius around the eye and the outer radius bounding the area of inner core convection. The stereoscopic capability afforded by the GOES West and East spacecraft permits simultaneous, two-view imagery of a tropical cyclone, yielding height measurement accuracies of 0.5 km and horizontal accuracies as small as 1 km. An airborne lidar unit was used to verify the height measurements made of Hurricane Frederic. At the same time, the GOES East Visible IR Spin Scan Radiometer (VISSR) provided the mean wall temperatures from the release of latent heat. The trials aided in identifying the assumptions and consequent inaccuracies introduced into the temperature sounding data during analysis. The satellite data is concluded useful for monitoring changes in storm intensity.

Rodgers, E. B.↗

Numerical Prediction of the President's Day Cyclone

Numerical-diagnostic studies of major anomalous weather events are being conducted in order to investigate the relevant physical processes associated with the events and the role of satellite observing systems in the analysis and prediction of these phenomena. One component of this study is concerned with the numerical prediction of intense coastal and oceanic cyclogenesis. The specific objectives of this research are: (1) to assess the accuracy of Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences model predictions of cyclogenesis, (2) to determine the importance of large scale dynamical processes and diabatic heating to the prediction, and (3) to evaluate the sensitivity of the model predictions to the initial conditions. It was shown that diabatic heating resulting from oceanic fluxes significantly contributed to the generation of low level cyclonic vorticity and the intensification and slow rate movement of an upper level ridge over the western Atlantic. As an upper level short-wave trough approached this ridge, diabatic heating associated with the release of latent heat intensified, and the gradient of vorticity, vorticity advection, upper level divergence, and upward vertical motion in advance of the trough were greatly increased, providing strong large-scale forcing for the surface cyclogenesis.

Atlas, R.↗

Applications of VAS and TOVS to tropical cyclones

The results of the attempts to use VAS (visible IR spin scan radiometer atmospheric sounder) data for predicting tropical cyclones are reported. VAS, mounted on a GEO platform, has 14 detectors for upwelling radiance. The McIDAS software was, by the 1983 hurricane season, upgraded to providing imagery and mass, motion and moisture patterns using the satellite data, which also permitted determinations of accurate temperature and moisture profiles. Comparisons made between VAS and radiosonde data revealed fairly close agreement of satellite and in-situ conditions during the 1983 season. When combined with data from the Tiros operational vertical sounder (TOVS) to define wind streamlines and predict the path of a hurricane from data fed into numerical models, sufficiently good agreement was obtained to initiate plans to forecast a hurricane trajectory during the 1984 season.

Velden, C. S.↗

The Presidents' Day cyclone of 18-19 February 1979 - Influence of upstream trough amplification and associated tropopause folding on rapid cyclogenesis

The Presidents' Day cyclone of 18-19 February, 1979 is analyzed based on conventional radiosonde data, infrared and visible satellite imagery, water vapor images and ozone measurement. The well-known synoptic-scale characteristics of the PJ-trough system are described, and evidence for the development of the tropopause fold are presented. Processes contributing to the formation of the fold are discussed in terms of an evaluation of the Sawyer-Eliassen circulation equation and a diagnostic evaluation of the ageostrophic winds and vertical motion near the polar jet streak. The documentation of stratospheric extrusions and their possible role in cyclogenesis is reviewed, and Eulerian and Lagrangian diagnostics are used to establish a connection between the tropopause fold associated with the polar jet streak and rapid cyclogenesis along the East Coast. Conservation of potential vorticity expressed in isentropic coordinates is used as a constraint from which to view cyclogenesis.

Uccellini, L. W.↗

Mesoscale generation of available potential energy in the warm sector of an extratropical cyclone

The generation of available potential energy (APE) was evaluated in the warm sector of an extratropical cyclone containing intense convective activity. Mesoscale rawinsonde data from AVE-SESAME '79 was employed. Parametrization techniques were used for latent and sensible heating components, and variations for the Kuo scheme provided convective latent heat release. Radiative transfer models were used to obtain estimates of infrared and solar processes. The results indicated that solar heating was greater than IR cooling near midday. An extensive low-level cloud deck was the most radiatively active area. Negative generation of APE occurred during most of the period for the SESAME domain as a whole. The leading contributor was convective latent heating located primarily in regions of negative efficiency. Infrared cooling was the only component to consistently produce positive generation. Sensible heating provided an important sink of APE in the low levels during the afternoon.

Fuelberg, H. E.↗

Utilization of satellite-derived cloud cover to improve the estimation of latent heat release in a winter extratropical cyclone

A simple scheme for utilizing satellite cloud pattern information to improve the estimation of parameterized stable and convective latent heat release is proposed and tested for an extratropical cyclone occurring over the United States during January 9-11, 1975. Calculations are done over the standard North American rawinsonde data region and over a sparse data region simulated by ignoring one-third of the original rawinsonde stations. Results indicate 15 percent and 30 percent improvements in latent heating estimates derived from the total and sparse data sets, respectively. A larger improvement was found using the sparse data set because the parameterized latent heat release estimates obtained using these data were poorer than those obtained using the total data set.

Lin, S.-J.↗

Monitoring and predicting tropical cyclone movement using geosynchronous satellite remote sensing techniques

Data collected on special hurricane days by the VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) instrument flown on a satellite in 1981 and 1982 were studied for their usefulness in forecasting motion of hurricanes. The retrieved constant pressure heights for the 500-mb surface provided the basis for reasonable forecasts of 24 hour hurricane motion. The conclusions are illustrated with examples from Hurricane Harvey (1981) and Hurricane Irene (1981). Recommendations are made for future use of the VAS type instruments for tropical cyclone forecasting.

Dubach, L.↗