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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA CARA Tools

The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team has created and posted to GitHub a set of MATLAB software tools for collision assessment (CA) analysis. The software is provided to the public under a NASA Open-Source Software Agreement and is maintained/updated by the CARA Analysis team. Capabilities provided within the toolset include algorithms in assessing probability of collision (Pc), collision consequence, covariance realism, Orbit Determination (OD) quality assessment, and single covariance max Pc. Additionally, a set of utilities are provided for astrodynamics topics closely related to CA, such as: Conjunction Data Message (CDM) parsing, covariance transformations, coordinate system transformations, etc. The repository is regularly updated on a monthly basis and new functionality will be added as algorithms are approved for public release. This presentation will provide a brief introduction to the toolset, highlight some of the key components which can be used in operations, and will present information on algorithms that are in the release pipeline and can be expected soon. This software will enable operators to independently perform CA calculations using the same core algorithms that CARA uses in operations.

L. Baars↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA CARA Tools

Luis Baars↗

DOE OSTI2020

Soil Water Content (m3 m-3) from Australia, November 2007 - May 2009

Hourly data processed to monthly. Data collected from Eddy Covariance Flux Tower at near-surface (0-10 cm). Site located at latitude -13.08 deg N, longitude 131.12 deg E. Data was downloaded from the FluxNet soil moisture data network and is publicly available. Data from this site located at, referenced as Australia (3) in Table 1 and Figure 4 of Solander et al., 2020, The pan-tropical soil moisture response to El Nino, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., in press.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Soil Water Content (m3 m-3) from Australia, August 2001 - December 2014

Hourly data processed to monthly. Data collected from Eddy Covariance Flux Tower at near-surface (0-10 cm). Site located at latitude -12.49 deg N, longitude 131.15 deg E. Data was downloaded from the FluxNet soil moisture data network and is publicly available. Data from this site is referenced as Australia (4) in Table 1 and Figure 4 of Solander et al., 2020, The pan-tropical soil moisture response to El Nino, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., in press.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A data science approach for analysis and reconstruction of spinodal-like composition fields in irradiated FeCrAl alloys

A statistical method for the analysis of continuously distributed data representative of composition fluctuations in irradiated FeCrAl alloys acquired using Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy (EDS) method is presented. Using probability distribution functions, direct and cross-covariances between the elemental compositions, the effects of alloy composition and irradiation dose were investigated on the spatial distribution and length scale of composition fluctuations at the nanoscale. We have observed that, for neutron-irradiated FeCrAl alloys, the distribution of Fe and Cr followed a left-skewed and right-skewed distribution, respectively for all (average) alloy compositions and irradiation doses. The analysis also revealed enhanced spatial gradients in the elemental compositions at higher irradiation dose. Direct and cross-covariance estimates of the experimental data were also utilized for reconstruction of composition data through fitting it to a parametric form of the covariance functions. Linear Model of Coregionalization was used to determine the parameters of the covariance functions. Subsequently, a spectral method was utilized for simulating a realization of the alloy compositions. Close correspondence was observed between the experimental and the reconstructed data which was analyzed using probability distribution functions and covariance functions. Composition space of the experimental and reconstructed data and dislocation velocities as a function of applied stress and line directions over the entire composition maps were also examined.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Soil Water Content (m3 m-3) located in Santarem, Brazil K67, July 2000 - February 2004

Hourly data processed to monthly. Data collected from Eddy Covariance Flux Tower at the near-surface (0-10 cm). Site located at a latitude -3.02 deg N, longitude -54.97 deg E. Data was downloaded from the FluxNet soil moisture data network and is publicly available. Data from this site is referenced as Brazil (3) in Table 1 and Figure 4 of Solander et al., 2020, The pan-tropical soil moisture response to El Nino, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., in press.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Nuclear data uncertainty quantification for the nuclide inventory of a Calvert Cliffs spent fuel sample

The impact of nuclear data cross section uncertainties and covariance matrices on the nuclide vector of spent nuclear fuel was investigated; This exercise was carried out for the Calvert Cliffs fuel assembly D047 benchmark available in the SFCOMPO database. Sample P irradiated in rod MKP109 for 4 cycles up to a burnup of approximately 44 GWd/MTU was selected for the analysis. Nuclear data uncertainties were taken from the most recent libraries released by evaluation projects JEFF, ENDF/B and JENDL, and were propagated using the SANDY code via a stochastic sampling approach. This paper provides a quantification of the uncertainty on the concentration of several actinides and fission products relevant for spent fuel management. Uncertainties generally below 5 % were predicted for the concentrations of most of the uranium, neptunium and plutonium isotopes relevant for SNF applications. Curium isotopes carry larger uncertainties that might exceed 10 %. The contribution of cross section uncertainties on the concentrations of fission products was found to be marginal with the exception of a few nuclides. These results can be significantly affected by the lack of evaluated covariance matrices for the capture cross section of several fission products. Burnup tracers such as {sup 148}Nd and {sup 137}Cs have negligible uncertainties because of the power normalisation imposed in every stochastic calculation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS1984

Matrix partitioning and EOF/principal component analysis of Antarctic Sea ice brightness temperatures

A field of measured anomalies of some physical variable relative to their time averages, is partitioned in either the space domain or the time domain. Eigenvectors and corresponding principal components of the smaller dimensioned covariance matrices associated with the partitioned data sets are calculated independently, then joined to approximate the eigenstructure of the larger covariance matrix associated with the unpartitioned data set. The accuracy of the approximation (fraction of the total variance in the field) and the magnitudes of the largest eigenvalues from the partitioned covariance matrices together determine the number of local EOF's and principal components to be joined by any particular level. The space-time distribution of Nimbus-5 ESMR sea ice measurement is analyzed.

Murray, C. W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Relative error covariance analysis techniques and application

A technique for computing the error covariance of the difference between two estimators derived from different (possibly overlapping) data arcs is presented. The relative error covariance is useful for predicting the achievable consistency between Kalman-Bucy filtered estimates generated from two (not necessarily disjoint) data sets. The relative error covariance analysis technique is then applied to a Venus Orbiter simulation.

Wolff, Peter, J.↗

NASA NTRS1972

SYMAT, COVAR: Test Procedures for Matrix Calculations

The FORTRAN subroutine SYMAT and related subroutines are described. In essence SYMAT is an iterative algorithm in which the problem of finding eigenvalues and eigenvectors of a real symmetric matrix is transformed into an equivalent problem of finding eigenvalues and eigenvectors of an infinite sequence of matrices of order two. A DEMO PROGRAM contains a subroutine COVAR which is used to compute the covariance matrix (denoted by A) of a data matrix (denoted by X). Since a covariance matrix is symmetric it can be analyzed by using subroutine SYMAT.

Morris, W. L.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Precise Orbit Determination for GEOSAT Follow-On Using Satellite Laser Ranging Data and Intermission Altimeter Crossovers

The US Navy's GEOSAT Follow-On Spacecraft was launched on February 10, 1998 with the primary objective of the mission to map the oceans using a radar altimeter. Following an extensive set of calibration campaigns in 1999 and 2000, the US Navy formally accepted delivery of the satellite on November 29, 2000. Satellite laser ranging (SLR) and Doppler (Tranet-style) beacons track the spacecraft. Although limited amounts of GPS data were obtained, the primary mode of tracking remains satellite laser ranging. The GFO altimeter measurements are highly precise, with orbit error the largest component in the error budget. We have tuned the non-conservative force model for GFO and the gravity model using SLR, Doppler and altimeter crossover data sampled over one year. Gravity covariance projections to 70x70 show the radial orbit error on GEOSAT was reduced from 2.6 cm in EGM96 to 1.3 cm with the addition of SLR, GFO/GFO and TOPEX/GFO crossover data. Evaluation of the gravity fields using SLR and crossover data support the covariance projections and also show a dramatic reduction in geographically-correlated error for the tuned fields. In this paper, we report on progress in orbit determination for GFO using GFO/GFO and TOPEX/GFO altimeter crossovers. We will discuss improvements in satellite force modeling and orbit determination strategy, which allows reduction in GFO radial orbit error from 10-15 cm to better than 5 cm.

Lemoine, Frank G.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Is There A Relationship Between Cornered-Hat Methods and A Residual Approach to Estimate System Uncertainty?

Recently a relationship has been established between a now traditional residual diagnostic used to estimate observation, background and analysis error covariances of interest to data assimilation and the three-cornered hat (3CH) method. An existing extension of the traditional residual diagnostic uses residuals from a fixed lag-1 Kalman smoother to retrieve system (model) error covariance. It is thus natural to ask if an additional relationship can be established between this extended residual method and some form of cornered--hat method. The answer might seem straightforward. Unlike in the standard residual estimation case, attempting to estimate model error amounts to estimating the statistics of a residual quantity itself. As shown in this presentation, in such cases the 3CH method becomes trivial: the sought out uncertainty can be derived directly from the covariance of the residual quantity at hand. In the particular case of estimating model error, one of the corners would have to be composed of vectors providing estimates of model error; these are not typically available in practice. Therefore, at first glance the present work finds no relationship between the lag-1 smoother residual diagnostic for system error estimation and cornered--hat methods. However, the work suggests that a two-tiered 3CH might be all that is necessary for system uncertainty to be obtained with 3CH.

Ricardo Todling↗

NASA NTRS2005

Construction of Covariance Functions with Variable Length Fields

This article focuses on construction, directly in physical space, of three-dimensional covariance functions parametrized by a tunable length field, and on an application of this theory to reproduce the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 4 (GEOS-4) data assimilation system. These Covariance models are referred to as multi-level or nonseparable, to associate them with the application where a multi-level covariance with a large troposphere to stratosphere length field gradient is used to reproduce the QBO from sparse radiosonde observations in the tropical lower stratosphere. The multi-level covariance functions extend well-known single level covariance functions depending only on a length scale. Generalizations of the first- and third-order autoregressive covariances in three dimensions are given, providing multi-level covariances with zero and three derivatives at zero separation, respectively. Multi-level piecewise rational covariances with two continuous derivatives at zero separation are also provided. Multi-level powerlaw covariances are constructed with continuous derivatives of all orders. Additional multi-level covariance functions are constructed using the Schur product of single and multi-level covariance functions. A multi-level powerlaw covariance used to reproduce the QBO in GEOS-4 is described along with details of the assimilation experiments. The new covariance model is shown to represent the vertical wind shear associated with the QBO much more effectively than in the baseline GEOS-4 system.

Gaspari, Gregory↗

NASA NTRS1978

Development of automatic and manual flight director landing systems for the XV-15 tilt rotor aircraft in helicopter mode

The objective of this effort is to determine IFR approach path and touchdown dispersions for manual and automatic XV-15 tilt rotor landings, and to develop missed approach criteria. Only helicopter mode XV-15 operation is considered. The analysis and design sections develop the automatic and flight director guidance equations for decelerating curved and straight-in approaches into a typical VTOL landing site equipped with an MLS navigation aid. These system designs satisfy all known pilot-centered, guidance and control requirements for this flying task. Performance data, obtained from nonstationary covariance propagation dispersion analysis for the system, are used to develop the approach monitoring criteria. The autoland and flight director guidance equations are programmed for the VSTOLAND 1819B digital computer. The system design dispersion data developed through analysis and the 1819B digital computer program are verified and refined using the fixed-base, man-in-the-loop XV-15 VSTOLAND simulation.

Hofmann, L. G.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Formatting and V&V of Consistent 238,240−24 2Pu $\overline{v}_p$ Evaluated Mean Values and Covariances

This report is in answer to the Nuclear Criticality Safety Program FY24 quarter 4 milestone that requires: “Format and V&V nu-bar means and covariances” for 238,240-242 Pu average prompt fission neutron multiplicities, $\overline{ν}$ p , that were obtained by a consistent evaluation leveraging the fission-event generator CGMF and a detailed uncertainty quantification of experimental data. It is described how nuclear data mean values and covariances were formatted using ENDFtk. Implementing the new 238,240-242 Pu $\overline{ν}$ p into the ENDF/B-VIII.1β 4 library leads to only small overall changes in criticality values of the Jezebel, Dirty Jezebel, Jupiter-001, Jupiter-002, EUCLID 3x2 and EUCLID 8x1 critical assemblies. Simulated k eff uncertainties due to $\overline{ν}$ p covariances change only little if cross-isotope covariances are considered or not for those assemblies with low percentage content of minor Pu isotopes. However, for the Dirty Jezebel critical assembly, that has a sizeable 240 Pu and non-negligible 241 Pu content, the simulated k eff uncertainties due to considering or neglecting cross-isotope $\overline{ν}$ p covariances is 443 versus 374 pcm.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tables of Neutron Thermal Cross Sections, Westcott Factors, Resonance Integrals, Maxwellian Averaged Cross Sections, Astrophysical Reaction Rates, and r-process Abundances Calculated from the ENDF/B-VIII.1, JEFF-3.3, JENDL-5.0, BROND-3.1, and CENDL-3.2 Evaluated Data Libraries

We present calculations of neutron thermal cross sections, Westcott factors, resonance integrals, Maxwellian-averaged cross sections, astrophysical reaction rates, and solar system r-process abundances using the latest data from the major evaluated nuclear libraries for 849 ENDF target materials. The recent release of ENDF/B-VIII.1 library, progress in 252 Cf(SF) evaluation, extensive analysis of newly-evaluated neutron reaction cross sections, neutron covariances, and improvements in data processing techniques motivated us to calculate the nuclear industry and neutron physics parameters, produce s-process Maxwellian-averaged cross sections and astrophysical reaction rates, extract r-process abundances, systematically calculate uncertainties, and provide additional insights on currently available neutron-induced reaction data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1992

Orbit-determination performance of Doppler data for interplanetary cruise trajectories. Part 2: 8.4-GHz performance and data-weighting strategies

A consider error covariance analysis was performed in order to investigate the orbit-determination performance attainable using two-way (coherent) 8.4-GHz (X-band) Doppler data for two segments of the planned Mars Observer trajectory. The analysis includes the effects of the current level of calibration errors in tropospheric delay, ionospheric delay, and station locations, with particular emphasis placed on assessing the performance of several candidate elevation-dependent data-weighting functions. One weighting function was found that yields good performance for a variety of tracking geometries. This weighting function is simple and robust; it reduces the danger of error that might exist if an analyst had to select one of several different weighting functions that are highly sensitive to the exact choice of parameters and to the tracking geometry. Orbit-determination accuracy improvements that may be obtained through the use of calibration data derived from Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites also were investigated, and can be as much as a factor of three in some components of the spacecraft state vector. Assuming that both station-location errors and troposphere calibration errors are reduced simultaneously, the recommended data-weighting function need not be changed when GPS calibrations are incorporated in the orbit-determination process.

Ulvestad, J. S.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Nuclear Criticality Safety Integral Experiment Covariance Determination

Integral benchmarks for criticality safety and nuclear data validation require expensive uncertainty quantification studies. Commonly, the uncertainty quantification ignores correlations between experiments that share components. Experiments such as the TEX (Thermal/Epithermal eXperiments) campaigns consist of many shared parts between experiments, such as fuel, which creates a strong correlation in their errors. While these correlations are known to exist, they are often not estimated due to the complexity of such calculations. This paper describes a software package that uses an intuitive method of determining the covariance for each of the experimental components, providing a correlation matrix for each family of parts across the multiple cases examined within a benchmark. The code uses the TEX-HEU campaign as a proof of concept, and we show that the correlations can be calculated with information commonly found in ICSBEP (International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project) benchmarks. The estimated covariances are used in χ 2 trending studies to evaluate their impact on nuclear data validation. The covariance determination code can be easily integrated into current benchmark evaluations as well as reevaluating legacy benchmark uncertainties. Uncertainty correlation calculations should become the baseline for criticality safety integral experiment benchmarks and can now be easily calculated with the described software package.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗