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At least 253 records · Page 14

A long-lived mesoscale convective complex. I - The mountain-generated component

The South Park Area Cumulus Experiment (SPACE) was conducted during the summer of 1977, and takes into account meteorological developments in a broad, elevated basin called South Park, which is located northeast of Colorado Springs, Colorado. The experiment was designed to investigate the organization of the mesoscale and storm-scale systems in detail over South Park. Many of the convective storms which were observed in the developing stages over South Park participated in the genesis of mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) on the meso-alpha-scale. The present investigation is concerned with the evolution of the second MCC of this episode, which matured on the evening of August 4, 1977. Attention is given to the events from the preconvective stage early on August 4 to the incipient MCC stage in the early evening.

Cotton, W. R.↗

AMU NEXRAD Exploitation Task

This report documents the results of the Applied Meteorology Unit's NEXRAD Exploitation Task. The objectives of this task are to determine what radar signatures are present prior to and at the time of convection initiation, and to determine radar signatures which will help distinguish whether the ensuing convection will become severe. Radar data from the WSR-88D radar located at NWS Melbourne (WSR-88D/KMLB) were collected between June and September 1995, and 16 convective case studies were analyzed for which the radar was operating during the entire period of interest. All WSR-88D/KMLB products were scrutinized for their utility in detecting convection initiation and severe storm signatures. Through process of elimination, it was found that the 0.5 deg reflectivity product with the lowest reflectivity values displayed is the best product to monitor for convection initiation signatures. Seven meteorological features associated with the initiation of deep convection were identified: the Merritt Island and Indian River convergence zones, interlake convergence, horizontal convective rolls, the sea breeze, storm outflow boundaries, and fires. Their reflectivity values ranged from -5 to 20 dBZ. Of the three severe weather phenomena (winds greater than or equal to 50 kts, tornado, 3/4 inch hail), high wind events due to microbursts were most common in the data set. It was found that the values and trends of composite reflectivity, vertically integrated liquid, and core aspect ratio were key indicators of the potential of a cell to produce a microburst. The data were not analyzed for the other two severe weather phenomena because they rarely occurred during the data collection period. This report also includes suggestions for new WSR-88D products, summaries of ongoing research aimed at creating new products, and explicit recommended procedures for detecting convection initiation and severe storm signatures in the radar data using the currently available technology.

Lambert, Winifred C.↗

Explosive supercell growth - A possible indicator for tropical storm intensification?

Several tropical storm observations are discussed which support the hypothesis that bursts of cloud-to-ground lightning near the center of a developing tropical storm (also called convective exhaust clouds and supercells), indicative of organized deep convection, could provide a valuable diagnostic for intensification over the next 12-36 hours. It is emphasized that further research is required in order to establish the exact role of supercells in tropical storm intensification.

Venne, Monique G.↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-31539-DND

TROPICS (Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation Structure and Storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats) Science Objectives - Relate precipitation structure evolution, including diurnal cycle, to the evolution of the upper-level warm core and associated intensity changes - Relate the occurrence of intense precipitation cores (convective bursts) to storm intensity evolution - Relate retrieved environmental moisture measurements to coincident measures of storm structure (including size) and intensity - Assimilate microwave observations in mesoscale and global numerical weather prediction models to assess impacts on storm track and intensity

William Blackwell↗

The Tropical Convective Spectrum: Archetypal Vertical Structures - Part 1

A taxonomy of tropical convective and stratiform vertical structures is constructed through cluster analysis of 3 yr of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) "warm-season" (surface temperature greater than 10 C) precipitation radar (PR) vertical profiles, their surface rainfall, and associated radar-based classifiers (convective/ stratiform and brightband existence). Twenty-five archetypal profile types are identified, including nine convective types, eight stratiform types, two mixed types, and six anvil/fragment types (nonprecipitating anvils and sheared deep convective profiles). These profile types are then hierarchically clustered into 10 similar families, which can be further combined, providing an objective and physical reduction of the highly multivariate PR data space that retains vertical structure information. The taxonomy allows for description of any storm or local convective spectrum by the profile types or families. The analysis provides a quasi-independent corroboration of the TRMM 2A23 convective/ stratiform classification. The global frequency of occurrence and contribution to rainfall for the profile types are presented, demonstrating primary rainfall contribution by midlevel glaciated convection (27%) and similar depth decaying/stratiform stages (28%-31%). Profiles of these types exhibit similar 37- and 85-GHz passive microwave brightness temperatures but differ greatly in their frequency of occurrence and mean rain rates, underscoring the importance to passive microwave rain retrieval of convective/stratiform discrimination by other means, such as polarization or texture techniques, or incorporation of lightning observations. Close correspondence is found between deep convective profile frequency and annualized lightning production, and pixel-level lightning occurrence likelihood directly tracks the estimated mean ice water path within profile types.

Precipitation radar↗

Case study of the March 24, 1976 Elton, Louisiana tornado using satellite infrared imagery, Doppler sounder, rawinsonde, and radar observations

The Elton, Louisiana tornado on March 24, 1976 has been studied using GOES digital infrared data for the growth and collapse of the cloud top, the temperature-height relationship and air mass instability from rawinsonde data, gravity waves from Doppler sounder records, and radar summaries from storm activity during the three-hour time period immediately preceding the touchdown of the tornado. In this case, the overshooting turret collapsed 30 minutes before the tornado touchdown as the eastward moving cloud reached Elton, Louisiana. Results show that the gravity waves were excited by the enhanced convection of the storm penetrating through the tropopause in the 2.5 hour time period before the tornado touched down.

Hung, R. J.↗

Effects of convection electric field on the distribution of ring current type protons

The topology of the boundaries of penetration (or, inversely, the boundaries of the forbidden regions) of 90-deg pitch-angle equatorial protons with energies less than 100 keV are explored for an equatorial convection E-field which is directed in general from dawn to dusk. Due to the dependence of drift path on energy (or magnetic moment), complex structural features are expected in the proton energy spectra detected by satellites since the penetration distance of a proton is not a monotonically increasing or decreasing function of energy. During a storm when the convection E is enhanced, model calculations predict elongations of the forbidden regions analogous to tail extensions of the plasmasphere. Following a reduction in the convection field, spiral-structured forbidden regions can occur. Structural features inherent to large-scale convection field changes may be seen in the nose-like proton spectrograms observed near dusk by instrumentation on Explorer 45. These nose events are modelled by using an electric field model developed originally by Volland (1973). The strength of the field is related to the Kp index through night-time equatorial plasmapause measurements.

Grebowsky, J. M.↗

Extreme Lightning Flash Rates as an Early Indicator of Severe Storms

Extreme lightning flash rates are proving to be an early indicator of intensifying storms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds and hail. Most of this lightning is in the cloud, where the naked eye can not see it. Recent global observations of thunderstorms from space indicate that giant electrical storms (supercells and convective complexes) with flash rates on the order of 1 flash per second are most common over the land masses of the America sub-tropics and equatorial Congo Basin. Within the United States, the average tornado warning lead time on a national basis is about 11 min. The real-time observation of extreme flash rates and the rapid increase in the in-cloud flash rate, signalling the intensification of the storm updraft, may provide as much as a 50% increase in severe storm warning lead time.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

Influence of the Convection Electric Field Models on Predicted Plasmapause Positions During Magnetic Storms

In the present work, we determine how three well documented models of the magnetospheric electric field, and two different mechanisms proposed for the formation of the plasmapause influence the radial distance, the shape and the evolution of the plasmapause during the geomagnetic storms of 28 October 2001 and of 17 April 2002. The convection electric field models considered are: Mcllwain's E51) electric field model, Volland-Stern's model and Weimer's statistical model compiled from low-Earth orbit satellite data. The mechanisms for the formation of the plasmapause to be tested are: (i) the MHD theory where the plasmapause should correspond to the last-closed- equipotential (LCE) or last-closed-streamline (LCS), if the E-field distribution is stationary or time-dependent respectively; (ii) the interchange mechanism where the plasmapause corresponds to streamlines tangent to a Zero-Parallel-Force surface where the field-aligned plasma distribution becomes convectively unstable during enhancements of the E-field intensity in the nightside local time sector. The results of the different time dependent simulations are compared with concomitant EUV observations when available. The plasmatails or plumes observed after both selected geomagnetic storms are predicted in all simulations and for all E-field models. However, their shapes are quite different depending on the E-field models and the mechanisms that are used. Despite the partial success of the simulations to reproduce plumes during magnetic storms and substorms, there remains a long way to go before the detailed structures observed in the EUV observations during periods of geomagnetic activity can be accounted for very precisely by the existing E-field models. Furthermore, it cannot be excluded that the mechanisms currently identified to explain the formation of "Carpenter's knee" during substorm events, will', have to be revised or complemented in the cases of geomagnetic storms.

Pierrard, V.↗

Delineating mid- and low-level water vapor patterns in pre-convective environments using VAS moisture channels

Infrared and visible imagery from VAS are used to delineate mid- and lower-tropospheric moisture fields for a variety of severe storm cases in the southern and central United States. The ability of sequences of images to isolate areas of large negative vertical moisture gradients and apparent convective instability prior to the onset of convective storms is assessed. A variety of image combination procedures are used to deduce the stability fields which are then compared with the available radiosonde data. The results for several severe storm cases indicate that VAS can detect mid- and low-level mesoscale water vapor fields as distinct radiometric signals. The VAS imagery shows a strong tendency for thunderstorms to develop along the edges of bands of midlevel dryness as they overtake either preexisting or developing low-level moisture maxima. Image sequences depict the speed with which deep moist and dry layers can develop and move.

Petersen, R. A.↗

Sunward convection in both polar caps

The storm of July 29, 1977 was chosen as an object of study for the Coordinated Data Analysis Workshop (CDAW), a part of the International Magnetospheric Study (IMS). The purpose of CDAW was to synthesize many diverse data sets in order to understand as fully as possible the magnetosphere's response to a variety of inputs, including a strong interplanetary shock, a time of strongly southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), and a time of strongly northward IMF. The July 29 event was particularly interesting because it contained effects of storm time compressions and of strongly southward and strongly northward IMF'S. The convection data appear to indicate reversed (sunward) convection in the polar cap in both the northern and southern hemispheres, although conjugacy cannot be established because the northern and southern passes were at different locations and different times

Reiff, P. H.↗

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder Version 6 Cloud Products

The version 6 cloud products of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) instrument suite are described. The cloud top temperature, pressure, and height and effective cloud fraction are now reported at the AIRS field-of-view (FOV) resolution. Significant improvements in cloud height assignment over version 5 are shown with FOV-scale comparisons to cloud vertical structure observed by the CloudSat 94 GHz radar and the Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). Cloud thermodynamic phase (ice, liquid, and unknown phase), ice cloud effective diameter D(sub e), and ice cloud optical thickness (τ) are derived using an optimal estimation methodology for AIRS FOVs, and global distributions for 2007 are presented. The largest values of tau are found in the storm tracks and near convection in the tropics, while D(sub e) is largest on the equatorial side of the midlatitude storm tracks in both hemispheres, and lowest in tropical thin cirrus and the winter polar atmosphere. Over the Maritime Continent the diurnal variability of tau is significantly larger than for the total cloud fraction, ice cloud frequency, and D(sub e), and is anchored to the island archipelago morphology. Important differences are described between northern and southern hemispheric midlatitude cyclones using storm center composites. The infrared-based cloud retrievals of AIRS provide unique, decadal-scale and global observations of clouds over portions of the diurnal and annual cycles, and capture variability within the mesoscale and synoptic scales at all latitudes.

infrared instruments↗

Interannual Variations in Aerosol Sources and Their Impact on Orographic Precipitation Over California's Central Sierra Nevada

Aerosols that serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN) have the potential to profoundly influence precipitation processes. Furthermore, changes in orographic precipitation have broad implications for reservoir storage and flood risks. As part of the CalWater I field campaign (2009-2011), the impacts of aerosol sources on precipitation were investigated in the California Sierra Nevada. In 2009, the precipitation collected on the ground was influenced by both local biomass burning (up to 79% of the insoluble residues found in precipitation) and long-range transported dust and biological particles (up to 80% combined), while in 2010, by mostly local sources of biomass burning and pollution (30-79% combined), and in 2011 by mostly long-range transport from distant sources (up to 100% dust and biological). Although vast differences in the source of residues was observed from year-to-year, dust and biological residues were omnipresent (on average, 55% of the total residues combined) and were associated with storms consisting of deep convective cloud systems and larger quantities of precipitation initiated in the ice phase. Further, biological residues were dominant during storms with relatively warm cloud temperatures (up to -15 C), suggesting these particles were more efficient IN compared to mineral dust. On the other hand, lower percentages of residues from local biomass burning and pollution were observed (on average 31% and 9%, respectively), yet these residues potentially served as CCN at the base of shallow cloud systems when precipitation quantities were low. The direct connection of the source of aerosols within clouds and precipitation type and quantity can be used in models to better assess how local emissions versus long-range transported dust and biological aerosols play a role in impacting regional weather and climate, ultimately with the goal of more accurate predictive weather forecast models and water resource management.

Creamean, J. M.↗

[Relationship Between Core Convective Structure and Intensity Change in Tropical Cyclones]

Tropical Storm Chantal during August 2001 was a storm that failed to intensify over the few days prior to making landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. An observational study of Tropical Storm Chantal is presented using a diverse data set including remote and in situ measurements from the NASA ER-2 and DC-8 and the NOAA WP-3D N42RF aircraft and satellite data. The authors discuss the storm structure from the larger scale environment down to the convective scale. Large vertical shear (850-200 hPa shear magnitude range 8-15 m/s) plays a very important role in preventing Chantal from intensifying. The storm had a poorly defined vortex that only extended up to 5-6 km altitude, and an adjacent intense convective region that comprised an Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). The entire low-level circulation center was in the rain-free western side of the storm, about 80 km to the west-southwest of the MCS. The MCS appears to have been primarily the result of intense convergence between large scale, low-level easterly flow with embedded downdrafts, and the cyclonic vortex flow. The individual cells in the MCS such as Cell 2 during the period of the observations, were extremely intense with reflectivity core diameters of 10 km and peak updrafts exceeding 20 m/s. Associated with this MCS were two broad subsidence (warm) regions both of which had portions over the vortex. The first layer near 700 hPa was directly above the vortex and covered most of it. The second layer near 500 hPa was along the forward and right flanks of Cell 2 and undercut the anvil divergence region above. There was not much resemblance of these subsidence layers to typical upper level warm cores in hurricanes that are necessary to support strong surface winds and a low central pressure. The observations are compared to previous studies of weakly sheared storms and modeling studies of shear effects and intensification. The configuration of the convective updrafts, low-level circulation, and lack of vertical coherence between the upper and low level warming regions, likely inhibited intensification of Chantal. This configuration is consistent with modeling of vortices in sheared environments, which suggest strongest convection and rain in the downshear left quadrant of the storm, and subsidence in the upshear right quadrant. The vertical shear profile is however different from what was assumed in previous modeling in that the winds are strongest in the lowest levels and the deep tropospheric vertical shear is on the order of 10-12 m/s.

Source record↗

Optical characteristics of lightning

A study of the optical characteristics of cloud-to-ground dischargers and how they compare with intracloud flashes was completed. Time resolved optical (7774A) and electric field-change waveforms were measured above clouds from a U2 airplane coincident with ground-based measurements of lightning. The optical pulse trains are studied for within and between flash variability. Specifically, for each flash researchers examine the 10, 50 (full width half maximum), and 90 percent pulse widths; the 10-10, 10-50, 10-90, and 10-peak percent amplitude rise times; the radiances (optical power densities); radiant energy densities; and pulse intervals. The optical pulse characteristics of first strokes, subsequent strokes, the intracloud components of cloud-to-ground flashes and intracloud flashes as viewed from above cloud are shown to exhibit very similar waveshapes, radiances and radiant energy densities. Descriptive statistics on these pulse categories were tabulated for 25 visually confirmed cloud-to-ground flashes (229 optical pulses) and 232 intracloud flashes (3126 optical pulses). A companion study of lightning observations above and below cloud in storms, storm complexes, and mesoscale convective systems has also been completed. Researchers compared the mapping of total lightning activity from above clouds with ground-based measurements and storm evolution. Although the total (IC + CG) lightning activity is the more representative indication of thunderstorm growth and decay, the ground strike data can be used to locate, diagnose, and track storm evolution in a number of instances.

Goodman, S. J.↗

An Integrated 0-1 Hour First-Flash Lightning Nowcasting, Lightning Amount and Lightning Jump Warning Capability

Using satellite-based methods that provide accurate 0-1 hour convective initiation (CI) nowcasts, and rely on proven success coupling satellite and radar fields in the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS; operated and developed at MIT-Lincoln Laboratory), to subsequently monitor for first-flash lightning initiation (LI) and later period lightning trends as storms evolve. Enhance IR-based methods within the GOES-R CI Algorithm (that must meet specific thresholds for a given cumulus cloud before the cloud is considered to have an increased likelihood of producing lightning next 90 min) that forecast LI. Integrate GOES-R CI and LI fields with radar thresholds (e.g., first greater than or equal to 40 dBZ echo at the -10 C altitude) and NWP model data within the WDSS-II system for LI-events from new convective storms. Track ongoing lightning using Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and pseudo-Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data to assess per-storm lightning trends (e.g., as tied to lightning jumps) and outline threat regions. Evaluate the ability to produce LI nowcasts through a "lightning threat" product, and obtain feedback from National Weather Service forecasters on its value as a decision support tool.

remote sensing↗

The Impact of Dry Midlevel Air on Hurricane Intensity in Idealized Simulations with No Mean Flow

This study examines the potential negative influences of dry midlevel air on the development of tropical cyclones (specifically, its role in enhancing cold downdraft activity and suppressing storm development). The Weather Research and Forecasting model is used to construct two sets of idealized simulations of hurricane development in environments with different configurations of dry air. The first set of simulations begins with dry air located north of the vortex center by distances ranging from 0 to 270 km, whereas the second set of simulations begins with dry air completely surrounding the vortex, but with moist envelopes in the vortex core ranging in size from 0 to 150 km in radius. No impact of the dry air is seen for dry layers located more than 270 km north of the initial vortex center (approximately 3 times the initial radius of maximum wind). When the dry air is initially closer to the vortex center, it suppresses convective development where it entrains into the storm circulation, leading to increasingly asymmetric convection and slower storm development. The presence of dry air throughout the domain, including the vortex center, substantially slows storm development. However, the presence of a moist envelope around the vortex center eliminates the deleterious impact on storm intensity. Instead, storm size is significantly reduced. The simulations suggest that dry air slows intensification only when it is located very close to the vortex core at early times. When it does slow storm development, it does so primarily by inducing outward- moving convective asymmetries that temporarily shift latent heating radially outward away from the high-vorticity inner core.

Weather Research and Forecasting model↗