Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Capacity Expansion Modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 253 records · Page 14

Theoretical design and performance of three-dimensional, pillared FeS 2 cathodes

Three-dimensional (3D) electrode design can provide improved capacities and rate capabilities over conventional two-dimensional electrodes by enhancing electrical and ionic transport. Here, expanding upon our previous modeling efforts for conversion chemistry lithium-ion batteries, we develop a pseudo-four-dimensional (P4D) approach that is subsequently used to investigate the design of a pillared FeS 2 electrode. The model considers transport in three dimensions with an additional “fourth” dimension corresponding to the solid-state lithium transport within the active material particles. Additionally, we allow for expansion of the active material during the conversion reaction to understand how internal stresses impact the electrochemical performance of the cell. By optimizing the model with respect to areal capacity, we are able to predict areal capacities up to 16.8 mAh/cm 2 for an areal current density of 1.78 mA/cm 2 and a 103% improvement for the three-dimensional electrodes over planar electrodes of equal volume. Despite the promising results, our simulations suggest that 3D design may be difficult for conversion cathode materials due to the large internal stresses that arise during conversion. Nevertheless, the model is robust and adaptable to other materials that may be more suitable for 3D electrodes due to a lesser change in volume during discharge.

Conversion cathode materials↗

Ab initio anharmonic thermodynamic properties of cubic Ca Si O 3 perovskite

We present an ab initio study of the thermodynamic properties of cubic CaSiO 3 perovskite (CaPv) over the pressure and temperature range of the Earth's lower mantle. We compute the anharmonic phonon dispersions throughout the Brillouin zone by utilizing the phonon quasiparticle approach, which characterizes the intrinsic temperature dependence of phonon frequencies and, in principle, captures full anharmonicity. Such temperature-dependent phonon dispersions are used to calculate ab initio free energy in the thermodynamic limit (N → ∞) within the framework of the phonon gas model. Accurate free energy calculations enable us to investigate cubic CaPv's thermodynamic properties, e.g., thermal expansivity, Grüneisen parameter, bulk modulus, heat capacity and thermal equation of state, where anharmonic effects are demonstrated. Furthermore, the present methodology provides an important theoretical approach for exploring phase boundaries, thermodynamic, and thermoelastic properties of strongly anharmonic materials at high pressures and temperatures.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Investigating the effects of cooperative transmission expansion planning on grid performance during heat waves with varying spatial scales

There is growing recognition of the advantages of interregional transmission capacity to decarbonize electricity grids. A less explored benefit is potential performance improvements during extreme weather events. This study examines the impacts of cooperative transmission expansion planning using an advanced modeling chain to simulate power grid operations of the United States Western Interconnection in 2019 and 2059 under different levels of collaboration between transmission planning regions. Two historical heat waves in 2019 with varying geographical coverage are replayed under future climate change in 2059 to assess the transmission cooperation benefits during grid stress. The results show that cooperative transmission planning yields the best outcomes in terms of reducing wholesale electricity prices and minimizing energy outages both for the whole interconnection and individual transmission planning regions. Compared to individual planning, cooperative planning reduces wholesale electricity prices by 64.3 % and interconnection-wide total costs (transmission investments + grid operations) by 34.6 % in 2059. It also helps decrease greenhouse gas emissions by increasing renewable energy utilization. However, the benefits of cooperation diminish during the widespread heat wave when all regions face extreme electricity demand due to higher space cooling needs. Despite this, cooperative transmission planning remains advantageous, particularly for California Independent System Operator with significant diurnal solar generation capacity. This study suggests that cooperation in transmission planning is crucial for reducing costs and increasing reliability both during normal periods and extreme weather events. It highlights the importance of optimizing the strategic investments to mitigate challenges posed by wider-scale extreme weather events of the future.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The Value of Increased HVDC Capacity Between Eastern and Western U.S. Grids: The Interconnections Seam Study

The Interconnections Seam Study examines the potential economic value of increasing electricity transfer between the Eastern and Western Interconnections using high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) transmission and cost-optimizing both generation and transmission resources across the United States. The study conducted a multi-model analysis that used co-optimized generation and transmission expansion planning and production cost modeling. Four transmission designs under eight scenarios were developed and studied to estimate costs and potential benefits. The results show benefit-to-cost ratios that reach as high as 2.9, indicating significant value to increasing the transmission capacity between the interconnections under the cases considered, realized through sharing generation resources and flexibility across regions.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Resilient co-expansion planning between gas and electric distribution networks against natural disasters

Resiliently designed and constructed integrated gas-electric distribution networks (GEDNs) against natural disasters are crucial to social welfare. In this study, a two-stage robust optimisation-based co-expansion planning model is proposed to attain an integrated GEDN with a given resilience level, by optimising the investment strategies of hardening and selective expansion of power distribution feeders and natural gas pipelines, as well as the location and capacity of natural-gas-fired distributed generation. In the first stage, the overall annual investment and operation cost is minimised under normal operation conditions while in the second stage, the feasibility of the investment decisions under the identified worst-case natural disaster scenario is checked with an adjustable load shedding cost criterion. The proposed model is formulated as a mixed integer second-order cone programming problem with the column and constraint generation algorithm employed to seek the optimal solution. Case studies on two integrated GEDNs demonstrate the performance of the proposed methodology.

Zou, Bo↗

NREL Price Series Developed for the ARPA-E FLECCS Program

The price data for four regions (CAISO, ERCOT, MISO-W, and PJM-W) are developed using the ReEDS to PLEXOS conversion as described in (Gagnon et al. 2020). The reference ReEDS case chosen is based on the 2020 Standard Scenario Mid-case, which uses the 2020 ReEDS model version (Cole et al. 2020; Ho et al. 2021). All ReEDS model inputs use 2020 Standard Scenarios Mid-case assumptions except for CO2 prices, which are implemented as linearly increasing CO2 price trajectories beginning at $0/tCO2 in 2020 and ending at either $100/tCO2 or $150/tCO2 in 2035 to dive capacity expansion towards a low-carbon system that could support CCS deployment. However, these scenarios also prohibit CCS deployment in this time frame so that resulting price data are not influenced by the deployment and operation of CCS itself. Implementing the ReEDS to PLEXOS conversion tool, PLEXOS is then simulated using the 2035 ReEDS infrastructure for both CO2 price scenarios, with the following model version and setup: PLEXOS Version: 8.2 Solver: Xpress-MP 35.01.01 Mixed integer optimization relative gap 1% System configuration: • Total number of nodes: 134 (consistent with ReEDS balancing areas) • Line losses enforced using piecewise linear approximation • Energy dump was enabled Price data is aggregated to the ISO/RTO level using load-weighted averages. References: Cole, Wesley, Sean Corcoran, Nathaniel Gates, Daniel Mai, Trieu, and Paritosh Das. 2020. “2020 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook.” NREL/TP-6A20-77442. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/77442.pdf. Gagnon, Pieter, Will Frazier, Elaine Hale, and Wesley Cole. 2020. “Cambium Documentation: Version 2020.” NREL/TP-6A20-78239. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States). https://doi.org/10.2172/1734551. Ho, Jonathan, Jonathon Becker, Maxwell Brown, Patrick Brown, Ilya (ORCID:0000000284917814) Chernyakhovskiy, Stuart Cohen, Wesley (ORCID:000000029194065X) Cole, et al. 2021. “Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) Model Documentation: Version 2020.” NREL/TP-6A20-78195. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. https://doi.org/10.2172/1788425.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

PR100 One-Year Progress Update: Preliminary Modeling Results and High-Resolution Solar and Wind Data Sets

The Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100) is a 2-year study by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Grid Deployment Office and six national laboratories to comprehensively analyze stakeholder-driven pathways to Puerto Rico's clean energy future. In Year 1 of the study, the PR100 team rigorously modeled and analyzed scenarios that meet Puerto Rico's renewable energy targets and achieve short-term recovery goals and long-term energy resilience. This presentation will be showcased in the form of a public webinar, which summarizes PR100 progress in Year 1, provides considerations that can inform potential funding and implementation decisions by key federal and local agencies and stakeholders. The presentation follows the publication in July 2022 of a PR100 Six-Month Progress Update (in English and Spanish), as well as public webinars in February 2022 to kick off the study and in July 2022 to present the 6-month update. A final written report and web-based visuals will be published in late 2023. All publications and public events associated with the study will be available in Spanish and English. This report is also available in Spanish: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy23osti/85201.pdf.

100%↗

A theoretical model for sheath dynamics in the two-plasma mode of a cylindrical filament discharge

We present a refined understanding of cylindrical plasma-facing emitter cathodes by examining the limitations of the conventional space charge limited model, which overlooks ion trapping dynamics within the virtual cathode. While conventional theory distinguishes between temperature-limited and space charge limited regimes based on electron current constraints, our findings reveal that trapped ions can form a quasi-neutral “second plasma,” expanding upstream and interacting with the primary plasma. In cylindrical and other non-planar geometries, an expanding trapped-ions layer produces current enhancement by converting more of the emitted electron flux to passing flux. The current enhancement leads to a complex coupling between the trapped-ions plasma and upstream plasma through ionizing collisions in the upstream region and charge exchange collisions in the virtual cathode. The coupling results in mutual density enhancement and at the same time, antagonistic expansion dynamics between the two plasma layers. The process is understood using a new “aid-compete” model. Numerical solutions, validated against simulations, reveal the model's capacity to predict system evolution and complex discharge behaviors, albeit with qualitative approximations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Rethinking the magnetic properties of lepidocrocite: A density functional theory and cluster expansion study

The iron oxyhydroxide lepidocrocite (g-FeOOH) is an abundant mineral critical to a number of chemical and technological applications. Of particular interest is the ground state and nite temperature magnetic order, and the subsequent impact this has upon crystal properties. The magnetic properties, investigated in this work are governed primarily through superexchange interactions, and have been calculated using density functional theory and cluster expansion methods. Quantication of these exchange terms has facilitated the determination of the ground state magneto-crystalline structure and subsequent calculation of its lattice constants, elastic moduli, cohesive enthalpy, and electronic density of states. Further, using a collinear magnetic conguration model, the magnetic heat capacity versus temperature has been studied and the Neel temperature obtained.

Pope, Daniel J.↗

The Value of Increased HVDC Capacity Between Eastern and Western U.S. Grids: The Interconnections Seam Study

The Interconnections Seam Study examines the potential economic value of increasing electricity transfer between the Eastern and Western Interconnections using high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) transmission and cost-optimizing both generation and transmission resources across the United States, proposing, assessing, justifying, and illustrating a major infrastructure change involving two of the worlds largest power grids. The study conducted a multi-model analysis that used co-optimized generation and transmission expansion planning and production cost modeling. Four transmission designs under eight scenarios were developed and studied to estimate costs and potential benefits. The results show benefit-to-cost ratios that reach as high as 2.5, indicating significant value to increasing the transmission capacity between the interconnections under the cases considered, realized through sharing generation resources and flexibility across regions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Property Measurements of LiF-NaF-KF Molten Salts Doped with Corrosion Products and Oxygen

Measurements of thermophysical properties of molten salts are needed for modeling and simulation activities that support the development of molten salt reactor (MSR) technologies. Properties of interest including transition temperatures, phase behavior, heat capacity, density, volumetric thermal expansion, surface tension, viscosity, thermal diffusivity, thermal conductivity, and vapor pressure are being performed at Argonne. Results of these property measurements are suitable for use in evaluating reactor performance during startup and the early operating life of the reactor. Ingressions of oxygen and moisture into the fuel salt are expected to occur at different times during the operating life of the reactor due to system leaks, maintenance, and refueling activities. The presence of these environmental contaminants induces corrosion of structural materials. The introduction of corrosion-derived species, oxygen and moisture is expected to affect the physical and chemical properties of the salt and operation of the reactor. Previous work performed at Argonne evaluated the effects of fission product dopants on the thermal properties of eutectic LiF-NaF-KF (FLiNaK). Properties of FLiNaK are commonly used to represent those of fluoride-bearing fuel salts. Metallic corrosion products such as chromium and nickel ions together with dissolved oxygen are expected to affect system redox differently than the accumulation of fission products. Work summarized in this report was performed to measure the effects of corrosion products and dissolved oxygen on the phase transitions, and specific heat capacity of FLiNaK. Thermophysical property measurements were made using four salts that were prepared by doping aliquots of a eutectic mixture of FLiNaK with surrogate corrosion products. Controlled additions of CrF 3 and NiF 2 were used as surrogates for corrosion product contamination anticipated during extended reactor operations in which fuel salt is in contact with steel reactor components. Controlled additions of UF 4 from two sources containing known amounts of UO 2 at different concentrations were used to represent oxygen contamination. The phase transitions and specific heat capacities of the four salts were measured by using differential scanning calorimetry. Measurements were made at temperatures spanning the range of 500−900 °C, which is the expected operating range of MSRs. Measured property values were compared to values measured previously with eutectic FLiNaK without dopants. Differences between property values measured for the doped and non-doped salts were compared with the uncertainties of the measurements to determine the significance of the effect of corrosion products and oxygen on salt properties.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

VIC-Global Parameter Dataset Sensitivity with the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model: Evaluating the importance of dynamic land surface parameters when using the VIC-Global parameter dataset

Accurate prediction of runoff is essential to water resources management, flood risk assessment, and ecosystem protection. However, many hydrological models still have relatively substantial limitations when representing the influence of land use and land cover (LULC) on runoff generation and routing. Changes in LULC, such as deforestation, urban expansion, agricultural intensification, and wetland loss, have been shown to alter the water balance at the land surface through fundamental hydrologic processes (e.g., interception, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and soil storage). However, it remains an open question what the exact magnitude and timing of these impacts are for the spatial and temporal scales commonly used in engineering applications. In this analysis we focus on one aspect of recent LULC change for assessing human impacts, which is urbanization. Specifically we seek to determine the impacts of urbanization on the magnitude and timing of surface runoff and baseflow in HUC-12 basins in Clark County, Nevada which has experienced rapid urbanization. We use the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model with a widely used off-the-shelf dataset of land surface parameters, VIC-Global, both of which have been commonly used in the past for water and energy balance modeling for large scale hydrologic studies. We examine two scenarios where the first scenario removes all urbanized land cover and parameterizes those areas of the basins as barren or open shrubland. The second scenario tests the opposite case where all areas of the basins are classified as urban regardless of their present classification. The results from the VIC model show there is a low sensitivity for daily surface runoff between scenarios. The daily baseflow values indicate similar low sensitivity to the classification change during specific periods, but then have substantial differences during other period when large precipitation events are occurring. This is likely due to the assumed parameter values for the urban land cover classification made by the VIC-Global dataset. Using a static land cover parameterization is reasonable for large domain hydrology models that are being used for near-term planning horizons (<30 years). However, longer planning horizons where feedbacks between the atmosphere and land surface are important, especially in transient climate situations, considerations for how to update land surface parameters should be incorporated.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Identifying Robust Decarbonization Pathways for the Western U.S. Electric Power System Under Deep Climate Uncertainty

Climate change threatens the resource adequacy of future power systems. Existing research and practice lack frameworks for identifying decarbonization pathways that are robust to climate-related uncertainty. We create such an analytical framework, then use it to assess the robustness of alternative pathways to achieving 60% emissions reductions from 2022 levels by 2040 for the Western U.S. power system. Our framework integrates power system planning and resource adequacy models with 100 climate realizations from a large climate ensemble. Climate realizations drive electricity demand; thermal plant availability; and wind, solar, and hydropower generation. Among five initial decarbonization pathways, all exhibit modest to significant resource adequacy failures under climate realizations in 2040, but certain pathways experience significantly less resource adequacy failures at little additional cost relative to other pathways. By identifying and planning for an extreme climate realization that drives the largest resource adequacy failures across our pathways, we produce a new decarbonization pathway that has no resource adequacy failures under any climate realizations. This new pathway is roughly 5% more expensive than other pathways due to greater capacity investment, and shifts investment from wind to solar and natural gas generators. Our analysis suggests modest increases in investment costs can add significant robustness against climate change in decarbonizing power systems. Our framework can help power system planners adapt to climate change by stress testing future plans to potential climate realizations, and offers a unique bridge between energy system and climate modeling.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Assessment of uranium nitride interatomic potentials

Uranium mononitride (UN) is a promising nuclear fuel due to its high fissile density, high thermal conductivity, and suitability for reprocessing. In this study, two uranium nitride interatomic potentials are assessed: Tseplyaev and Starikov's angular-dependent potential and Kocevski et al.'s embedded atom model potential. Predictions of the thermophysical and elastic properties of UN, UN 2 , and α- and β-U 2 N 3 computed using both potentials are assessed and compared to available experimental data. Notably, the Tseplyaev potential performs better with the energetic aspects of UN, e.g., specific heat capacity and point defect formation energies, whereas the Kocevski potential performs better with the structural aspects of UN, e.g., thermal expansion as well as with the elastic properties. The reasons why the Kocevski potential underestimates the UN specific heat are explained by examining the UN phonon properties modeled using both potentials. The Kocevski potential shows better identification of the mechanical stability ranges of UN, UN 2 , and α- and β-U 2 N 3 , reasonably predicting the melting point of UN and predicting stable structures for UN 2 and α- and β-U 2 N 3 . On the other hand, the Tseplyaev potential predicts a premature phase change of both UN and UN 2 and cannot stabilize α- nor β-U 2 N 3 . However, the Kocevski potential cannot predict a stable α-U phase and is thus not suitable for the calculation of formation energies for non-stoichiometric point defects.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A Computational Study of the Shear Behavior of Reinforced Concrete Beams Affected from Alkali–Silica Reactivity Damage

In this study, an investigation of the shear behavior of full-scale reinforced concrete (RC) beams affected from alkali–silica reactivity damage is presented. A detailed finite element model (FEM) was developed and validated with data obtained from the experiments using several metrics, including a force–deformation curve, rebar strains, and crack maps and width. The validated FEM was used in a parametric study to investigate the potential impact of alkali–silica reactivity (ASR) degradation on the shear capacity of the beam. Degradations of concrete mechanical properties were correlated with ASR expansion using material test data and implemented in the FEM for different expansions. The finite element (FE) analysis provided a better understanding of the failure mechanism of ASR-affected RC beam and degradation in the capacity as a function of the ASR expansion. The parametric study using the FEM showed 6%, 19%, and 25% reduction in the shear capacity of the beam, respectively, affected from 0.2%, 0.4%, and 0.6% of ASR-induced expansion.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Technology Impact and Resource Assessment of Existing and Planned U.S. Biofuel Production: Life Cycle Water Consumption, Water Stress, Land Use, and Criteria Air Pollutants

Biofuels have the potential to strengthen the U.S. energy supply, enhance energy security, and promote economic development. As the United States continues to expand biofuel production, quantifying resource requirements and location-specific constraints is crucial for planning, siting, and technology development to support long-term viability. Accordingly, this work assesses the life cycle resource consumption (water consumption, and land use), water stress and criteria air pollutants associated with expanded U.S. biofuel production over the 2020–2035 period, based on producers’ plans. We perform a bottom-up technology impact assessment and resource assessment by integrating facility-level production statistics with Argonne’s Research and Development (R&D) GREET model and county-level water-stress characterization factors from Available Water Remaining for the United States (AWARE-US) model. Results suggest that by 2035, biofuels could meaningfully contribute to U.S. energy demand, driven primarily by first-generation and waste-based feedstocks with plans for substantial capacity expansion, although cellulosic and e-fuel technologies remain limited. However, growth must be managed to minimize impacts on water resources and land use. These impacts vary by fuel type and facility location, specifically, projected expansion increases water consumption and can elevate water-stress impacts in certain regions like Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Idaho, California and North Texas. Direct land use also increases overall, particularly for first-generation feedstocks such as corn and soybeans. These findings underscore the need for continued technological improvements and innovative strategies to manage resource demands as the industry scales and to support complementary deployment within the evolving U.S. energy system.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Learning from Arctic Microgrids: Cost and Resiliency Projections for Renewable Energy Expansion with Hydrogen and Battery Storage

Electricity in rural Alaska is provided by more than 200 standalone microgrid systems powered predominantly by diesel generators. Incorporating renewable energy generation and storage to these systems can reduce their reliance on costly imported fuel and improve sustainability; however, uncertainty remains about optimal grid architectures to minimize cost, including how and when to incorporate long-duration energy storage. This study implements a novel, multi-pronged approach to assess the techno-economic feasibility of future energy pathways in the community of Kotzebue, which has already successfully deployed solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, and battery storage systems. Using real community load, resource, and generation data, we develop a series of comparison models using the HOMER Pro software tool to evaluate microgrid architectures to meet over 90% of the annual community electricity demand with renewable generation, considering both battery and hydrogen energy storage. We find that near-term planned capacity expansions in the community could enable over 50% renewable generation and reduce the total cost of energy. Additional build-outs to reach 75% renewable generation are shown to be competitive with current costs, but further capacity expansion is not currently economical. We additionally include a cost sensitivity analysis and a storage capacity sizing assessment that suggest hydrogen storage may be economically viable if battery costs increase, but large-scale seasonal storage via hydrogen is currently unlikely to be cost-effective nor practical for the region considered. While these findings are based on data and community priorities in Kotzebue, we expect this approach to be relevant to many communities in the Arctic and Sub-Arctic regions working to improve energy reliability, sustainability, and security.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Opportunities for Renewable Energy, Storage, Vehicle Electrification, and Demand Response in Rajasthan's Power Sector

To support the government of Rajasthan and inform state policy makers, regulators, planners, and system operators on power system trends, NREL undertook a long-term capacity expansion planning study. We used NREL's flagship capacity expansion planning tool for the power sector called the Regional Energy Deployment System India (ReEDS-India) to understand the generation and transmission needs of Rajasthan through 2050. NREL's modeling framework includes co-optimized decisions about generation, energy storage, transmission, and reserves investments needed to meet future demand while maintaining reliable electricity supply. Scenario analysis was conducted to assess a range of potential future scenarios, providing insight for planning agencies, utilities, and local stakeholders about key trends and sources of uncertainty.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗