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Exceedance Probabilities and Recurrence Intervals for Extended Power Outages in the United States

This report provides estimates of recurrence intervals and conditional exceedance probabilities for major power outages by U.S. region between 2015 and 2021. Additionally, we provide estimates for grid management, particularly outages caused by California’s public safety power shutoffs (PSPS), and for natural outages caused by major hurricanes. Outage recurrence intervals are the average number of years between outage events, and conditional exceedance probabilities are the likelihoods that a customer who experiences a major power outage will experience an outage exceeding a given duration. Major outage events are those that affect 10,000 or more customers, as defined by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Electric Emergency Incident and Disturbance Report, called OE-417 (DOE 2020). These results can be applied to determine the likelihood of experiencing long-duration outages, which can be integrated into cost-benefit analyses of resilience solutions and broader energy resilience studies.

Ericson, Sean [National Renewable Energy Laborator

Kalman Filtering and RTS Smoothing for Arc-Jet Sample Edge Tracking

Accurate and temporally consistent measurements of test-article recession are required to characterize material response during arc-jet ablation experiments. However, image-based boundary measurements are often affected by segmentation noise, brightness variations, and frame-to-frame variability. This work extends arcjetCV [1] with filtering methods for tracking the evolving boundaries of hemispherical and ISO-Q test articles. Two boundary-tracking approaches based on Kalman filtering [2] were implemented. The first applies a point-wise Kalman filter followed by a Rauch–Tung–Striebel smoother [3] to individual boundary-point locations. The second applies the same filtering and smoothing framework to a reduced set of geometry-dependent shape parameters. The point-wise method reduces local frame-to-frame fluctuations while preserving spatial details along the detected boundary. The shape-parameter method provides a compact and geometrically constrained estimate of the sample contour. Figure 1 illustrates the two approaches for a hemispherical test article. Both methods improve temporal consistency and support more robust estimation of surface recession from arc-jet imagery. The two filtering approaches provide complementary representations of boundary evolution and improve the reliability of image-based recession measurements during arc-jet experiments.

recession measurement

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 36, No. 1, January-June 1995]

Nuclear Safety is a journal that covers significant issues in the field of nuclear safety. Its primary scope is safety in the design, construction, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power reactors worldwide and the research and analysis activities that promote this goal, but it also encompasses the safety aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing and handling, and nuclear waste disposal, the handling of fissionable materials and radioisotopes, and the environmental effects of all these activities. Table of Contents for this issue follows. THE CHORNOBYL ACCIDENT: 1 The Chornobyl Accident Revisited, Part II: The State of the Nuclear Fuel Located Within the Chornobyl Sarcophagus, A A. Borovoi and A. R. Sich; GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 33 Nuclear Power Safety in Central and Eastern Europe, R. Wilson; 46 Safety of Nuclear Power Reactors in the Former Eastern European Countries, S. Chakraborty; 53 Technical Note: On the Definition of Common-Cause Failures, H. Paula; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 58 Modeling and Analysis of Core-Debris Recriticality During Hypothetical Severe Accidents in the Advanced Neutron Source Reactor, S.-H. Kim, V. Georgevich, D. B. Simpson, C. O. Slater, and R. P. Taleyarkhan; 68 Ignitability of Hydrogen/Oxygen/Diluent Mixtures in the Presence of Hot Surfaces, R. K. Kumar and G. W. Koroll; 94 Coupled RELAP5 and CONTAIN Accident Analysis Using PVM, K. A. Smith, A. J. Baratta, and G. E. Robinson; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 109 Application of Fuzzy Logic in Nuclear Reactor Control Part I: An Assessment of State-of-the-Art, A. S. Heger, N. K. Alang-Rashid, and M. Jamshidi; DESIGN FEATURES: 122 Twenty-Third DOE/NRC Nuclear Air-Cleaning and Treatment Conference, R. R. Bellamy, J. J. Hayes, and M. W. First; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 135 Atmospheric Dispersion and the Radiological Consequences of Normal Airborne Effluents from a Nuclear Power Plant, D. Fang, C. Z. Sun, and L. Yang; 142 Calculation of Distribution Coefficients for Radionuclides in Soils and Sediments, I. Puigdomenech and U. Bergstrom: OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 155 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher; U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION INFORMATION AND ANALYSES: 158 Operating Experience Feedback Report—Reliability of Safety-Related Steam Turbine-Driven Standby Pumps Used in U.S. Commercial Nuclear Power Plants, J. R. Boardman; 166 Turbine Building Hazards, H. L Ornstein; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 169 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 175 Proposed Rule Changes as of Dec. 31,1994; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 32 Harvard School of Public Health In-Place Filter Testing Workshop; 134 International Conference on Advances in the Operational Safety of Nuclear Power Plants; 193 30th Tennessee Industries Week; 193 DOE Technical Standards Program 1995 Workshop; 194 Multiphase Flow Experiments and Instrumentation; 180 The Authors; 185 Indexes to Nuclear Safety, Volumes 34 and 35.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Material Properties and Modeling of Room Temperature Vulcanizing Silicone

Room Temperature Vulcanizing silicone (RTV) is a high-temperature adhesive that has successfully been used as a gap-filler between Thermal Protection System (TPS) tiles for heatshields on numerous missions. It is also used to bond instrumentation plugs such as temperature and pressure sensors into the heatshields. While RTV has been traditionally assumed to be a non-porous and non-ablating material, numerous experiments have shown that RTV pyrolyzes and becomes highly porous as it is heated. Heating RTV has also shown swelling, or intumescence, which can pose unique problems that lead to roughness induced boundary-layer transition, surface oxide formation and contamination of heat shield sensors. Therefore, it is crucial to understand and model the intumescence phenomenon of RTV. As data for RTV material properties is limited, the first step in modeling RTV is to collect material properties such as pyrolysis mass-loss, microstructure change, virgin and char porosity, etc. which was performed in our initial study. Additionally, thermomechanical properties such as Young’s modulus and Poisson ratio are required for modeling the intumescence of RTV, which were taken from literature and the coefficient of thermal expansion was collected using in-situ heating and Micro Computed Tomography (µ-CT) in previous studies. Finally, numerous other properties such as pyrolysis gas properties, virgin and char thermal conductivity and specific heat were compiled from previous experiments and literature into a material database that can be used for simulations. In Porous Material Analysis Toolbox based on OpenFOAM (PATO) [4], structural mechanics coupled with material response was used for simulating the intumescence of RTV as it is heated. However, since the permeability of the material is very low, the pyrolysis gas creates an internal pressure build-up as the material is being heated, significantly contributing to the deformation of the material. To correctly characterize this phenomenon, additional physics models were implemented into PATO's stress analysis solver, and results were compared with RTV dilatometry test data as a preliminary verification case. Future work will include experiments of RTV at the Plasmatron X facility and the in-situ heating cell with µ-CT, and improvement of simulation tools to more accurately model RTV intumescence.

PATO

Polycarbonate‐Based Solid‐Polymer Electrolytes for Solid‐State Sodium Batteries

Solid-polymer electrolytes comprised of polypropylene carbonate (PPC) and varied sodium bis(fluorosulfonyl)imide (NaFSI) salt concentrations are investigated for implementation as a conductive solid polymer electrolyte into solid-state cathode composites utilizing a sodium-layered oxide active material. The ionic conductivity generally increases with NaFSI salt content, reaching ≈1 mS cm −1 at 80 °C at the highest salt concentration (PPC:NaFSI = 0.5:1). Through an all-in-one slurry casting method, Na 2/3 Ni 1/3 Mn 2/3 O 2 cathode composites are fabricated in which the dispersed PPC electrolyte acts as the primary binder. Enabled by a bilayer polymer electrolyte system, cycling performance with the PPC cathode electrolyte is optimized with respect to salt concentration and anode material. The best cyclability is achieved with a moderate salt concentration electrolyte (PPC:NaFSI = 5:1), showcasing an initial capacity of 83 mA h g −1 with a remarkable 80% capacity retention after 150 cycles at C/5 rate and 60 °C. The superior performance of the lower salt concentration electrolyte is attributed to better electrochemical stability, as confirmed by linear sweep voltammetry and online electrochemical mass spectrometry measurements. In conclusion, these results underscore the potential of carbonate-based polymer electrolytes and the importance of balancing electrolyte conductivity and stability in cell design.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

Well-Defined Iron Sites in Crystalline Carbon Nitride

Carbon nitride materials can be hosts for transition metal sites, but Mössbauer studies on iron complexes in carbon nitrides have always shown a mixture of environments and oxidation states. Here we describe the synthesis and characterization of a crystalline carbon nitride with stoichiometric iron sites that all have the same environment. The material (formula C 6 N 9 H 2 Fe 0.4 Li 1.2 Cl, abbreviated PTI/FeCl 2 ) is derived from reacting poly(triazine imide)·LiCl (PTI/LiCl) with a low-melting FeCl 2 /KCl flux, followed by anaerobic rinsing with methanol. X-ray diffraction, X-ray absorption and Mössbauer spectroscopies, and SQUID magnetometry indicate that there are tetrahedral high-spin iron(II) sites throughout the material, all having the same geometry. As a result, the material is active for electrocatalytic nitrate reduction to ammonia, with a production rate of ca. 0.1 mmol cm –2 h –1 and Faradaic efficiency of ca. 80% at −0.80 V vs RHE.

Anions

Use of Assistive Technology to Augment API Capabilities

Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) allow for access to data and capabilities of computer applications by developers or users with experience in computer programming. Recent development with both Thermal Desktop and ESATAN-TMS have provided APIs to allow users to develop their own capabilities that interface with the Graphical User Interfaces (GUI) or manipulate the thermal model data. However, these APIs are only as good as the breadth of features in the native code accessible through the API; if a particular code’s feature is not accessible through the API, then users have very limited options besides waiting for updates to the API that expose the necessary functionality, particularly if model data access or user action, such as a button click, is required. However, Assistive Technology features that allow for differently-abled users to more fully experience a software’s capabilities may be creatively utilized to gain further access to data and capabilities not yet exposed by the API. This paper describes the process to augment the features of the OpenTD API via assistive technology and describes how to identify the application instance, navigate GUI elements, updates values on forms, and execute actions such as selecting a listbox item or clicking a button. It concludes with identifying some of the pitfalls to avoid and describes methods to best implement this approach.

Application Programming Interface

Use of Assistive Technology to Augment API Capabilities

Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) allow for access to data and capabilities of computer applications by developers or users with experience in computer programming. Recent development with both Thermal Desktop and ESATAN-TMS have provided APIs to allow users to develop their own capabilities that interface with the Graphical User Interfaces (GUI) or manipulate the thermal model data. However, these APIs are only as good as the breadth of features in the native code accessible through the API. If a particular code’s feature is not accessible through the API, then users have very limited options besides waiting for updates to the API that expose the necessary functionality, particularly if model data access or user action, such as a button click, is required. However, Assistive Technology features that allow for users with a disability to more fully experience a software’s capabilities may be creatively utilized to gain further access to data and capabilities not yet exposed by the API. This paper describes the process to augment the features of the OpenTD API via assistive technology and describes how to identify the application instance, navigate GUI elements, updates values on forms, and execute actions such as selecting a listbox item or clicking a button. It concludes with identifying some of the pitfalls to avoid and describes methods to best implement this approach.

Application Programming Interface

Fabrication of freeform potassium dihydrogen phosphate crystals by belt-on-wheel polishing for spatially tailored polarization control in high-power lasers

Large-aperture (>30 cm) optical components that provide spatially tailored control of the properties of a laser beam, such as phase, polarization, and amplitude, have been the focus of much research and development in recent years. Such optics can improve energy throughput and target implosion efficiency in high-power laser systems conducting inertial confinement fusion research. Here, a method is demonstrated for fabricating freeform surface topographies into the birefringent crystalline material, potassium dihydrogen phosphate (KDP). Belt-on-wheel polishing with an oil-based fluid, developed to mitigate the deliquescent properties of KDP, is used to deterministically polish a freeform topography into KDP, enabling the fabrication of a wave plate with spatially arbitrary retardance. Testing of the laser-induced damage threshold of belt-on-wheel polished KDP was conducted at a wavelength of 351 nm and a pulse duration of 1 ns. The results revealed that the polished surfaces are highly resistant to laser-induced damage, making them suitable for large-aperture, high-power laser applications.

Urban, Nathaniel D. [Univ. of Rochester, NY (Unite

The 1996 NASA Aerospace Battery Workshop

The 1996 Workshop was held on three consecutive days and was divided into five sessions. The first day consisted of a General Primary Battery Session and a Nickel-Hydrogen Battery On-Orbit Reconditioning Experience Focused Session. The second day consisted of a Nickel-Hydrogen Session and a Nickel-Cadmium Session. The third and final day was devoted to an Other Secondary Technologies Session which covered sodium-sulfur, nickel-zinc, nickel-metal hydride, and lithium ion technologies.

Brewer, Jeffrey C.

Suppression of Marangoni Convection in Float Zones

The basic purpose of this program is to demonstrate by means of an Earth-based 1-g experiment that the undesirable Marangoni (surface tension) convection can be suppressed or significantly reduced by means of gas jets directed tangentially to the free surface of the liquid in a float zone. These jets will establish the tangential shear stress field over the surface which must be adjusted to equal the counter-stress resultant of the Marangoni shear stress which causes the convection. For proposed materials processing in space (o-g), particularly of important, highly reactive semiconductor materials, e.g., silicon, microgravity will virtually eliminate the unwanted thermal-buoyancy convection in the liquid silicon, but will have no effect in reducing the Marangoni convection. Unless this can be sufficiently suppressed by other means, there may be no significant advantages to the proposed space processing of reactive semiconductors. Although some inert gas such as argon must be used for the corrosive liquid silicon, the Earth-based experiment uses air jets and various transparent oils, since the basic principle involved is the same. The first float zone is enclosed in a very small rectangular box with a quasi-planar free surface. Stable Marangoni convection has been achieved and velocities measured photographically. The air jet system with variable velocity and temperature is under construction. Three independent parameters must be optimized to attain maximum suppression: the gas velocity, angle of attack, and gas temperature.

Robert F Dressler

Low Temperature Environment Operations of Turboengines (Design and User's Problems)

The author summarizes and links together a number of papers that were presented at the Propulsion and Energetics (PEP) symposium on low temperature environment operation of turbojet engines that was held October 8 to 12, 1990. Topics covered include operational experience of ice ingestion in the turboprop engine in the 2,000 hp class, icing on helicopter turbo engines, icing test facilities, ice relevant cloud physical parameters, and low temperature and fuel problems.

R Jacques

Introduction to Radiation Issues for International Space Station Extravehicular Activities: Chapter 1

The International Space Station (ISS) provides significant challenges for radiation protection of the crew due to a combination of circumstances including: the extended duration of missions for many crewmembers, the exceptionally dynamic nature of the radiation environment in ISS orbit, and the necessity for numerous planned extravehicular activities (EVA) for station construction and maintenance. Radiation protection requires accurate radiation dose measurements and precise risk modeling of the transmission of high fluxes of energetic electrons and protons through the relatively thin shielding provided by the space suits worn during EVA. Experiments and analyses have been performed due to the necessity to assure complete radiation safety for the EVA crew and thereby ensure mission success. The detailed characterization described of the material and topological properties of the ISS space suits can be used as a basis for design of space suits used in future exploration missions. In radiation protection practices, risk from exposure to ionizing radiation is determined analytically by the level of exposure, the detrimental quality of the radiation field, the inherent radiosensitivity of the tissues or organs irradiated, and the age and gender of the person at the time of exposure. During low Earth orbit (LEO) EVA, the relatively high fluxes of low-energy electrons and protons lead to large variations in exposure of the skin, lens of the eye, and tissues in other shallow anatomical locations. The technical papers in this publication describe a number of ground-based experiments that precisely measure the thickness of the NASA extravehicular mobility unit (EMU) and Russian Zvezda Orlan-M suits using medical computerized tomography (CT) X-ray analysis, and particle accelerator experiments that measure the minimum kinetic energy required by electrons and photons to penetrate major components of the suits. These studies provide information necessary for improving the understanding of the current ISS space suits and provide insights into improved approaches for the design of future suits. This chapter begins with a summary of the dynamic ionizing radiation environment in LEO space and introduces the concepts and quantities used to quantify exposure to space radiation in LEO. The space suits used for EVA and the experimental partial human phantom are described. Subsequent chapters report results from measured charged particle fields before and after incident protons and secondary particles are transported through the space suits and into organs and tissues.

M R Shavers

Anomalous lattice expansion of bcc Ta in helium-loaded diamond anvil cells

Anomalous lattice expansion of bcc Ta is observed in helium-loaded diamond anvil cell (DAC) experiments near 6 GPa and above 400 K, while co-loaded W, Mo, and Au exhibit normal thermal expansion. The Ta volume expansion increases with temperature, reaching ~14% near 650 K before plateauing, and is largely retained after recovery to ambient conditions. Time-resolved measurements at 500 K reveal progressive expansion over several hours, consistent with gradual, thermally activated He incorporation. The largely retained expansion during subsequent cooling and holding at 400 K indicates that the incorporated He is predominantly kinetically trapped. The data reveal two distinct regimes: below ~550 K, modest and spatially uniform expansion consistent with interstitial He trapping at isolated, randomly distributed vacancies; above ~550 K, He-vacancy cluster growth producing dramatically larger expansion, peak broadening, and a core–shell microstructure revealed by micron-resolution X-ray diffraction mapping. These results demonstrate that He is not always a passive pressure medium in DAC experiments and reveal a previously unrecognized regime of He-mediated lattice modification in Ta, complementing conventional ion-implantation studies relevant to nuclear and fusion structural materials.

Diamond anvil cell

A Panchromatic View of the Restless SN 2009ip Reveals the Explosive Ejection of a Massive Star Envelope

The double explosion of SN 2009ip in 2012 raises questions about our understanding of the late stages of massive star evolution. Here we present a comprehensive study of SN 2009ip during its remarkable rebrightenings. High-cadence photometric and spectroscopic observations from the GeV to the radio band obtained from a variety of ground-based and space facilities (including the Very Large Array, Swift, Fermi, Hubble Space Telescope, and XMM) constrain SN 2009ip to be a low energy (E (is) approximately 10(exp 50) erg for an ejecta mass approximately 0.5 solar mass) and asymmetric explosion in a complex medium shaped by multiple eruptions of the restless progenitor star. Most of the energy is radiated as a result of the shock breaking out through a dense shell of material located at approximately 5 × 10( exp 14) cm with M approximately 0.1 solar mass, ejected by the precursor outburst approximately 40 days before the major explosion. We interpret the NIR excess of emission as signature of material located further out, the origin of which has to be connected with documented mass-loss episodes in the previous years. Our modeling predicts bright neutrino emission associated with the shock break-out if the cosmic-ray energy is comparable to the radiated energy. We connect this phenomenology with the explosive ejection of the outer layers of the massive progenitor star, which later interacted with material deposited in the surroundings by previous eruptions. Future observations will reveal if the massive luminous progenitor star survived. Irrespective of whether the explosion was terminal, SN 2009ip brought to light the existence of new channels for sustained episodic mass loss, the physical origin of which has yet to be identified.

view

The Alpha-Proton-X-Ray Spectrometer Deployment Mechanism: an Anthropomorphic Approach to Sensor Placement on Martian Rocks and Soil

On July 4,1997, the Mars Pathfinder spacecraft lands on Mars and starts conducting technological and scientific experiments. One experiment, the Alpha-Proton-X-ray Spectrometer, uses a sensor head placed against rocks and soil to determine their composition. To guarantee proper placement, a deployment mechanism mounted on the Mars Rover aligns the sensor head to within 20 deg of the rock and soil surfaces. In carrying out its task, the mechanism mimics the action of a human hand and arm. Consisting of a flexible wrist, a parallel link arm, a brush dc motor actuator, and a revolutionary non-pyrotechnic fail-safe release device, the mechanism correctly positions the sensor head on rocks as high as 0.29 m and on targets whose surfaces are tilted as much as 45 deg from the nominal orientation of the sensor head face. The mechanism weighs less than 0.5 kg, can withstand 100 g's, and requires less than 2.8 N x m of actuation torque. The fail-safe coupler utilizes Cerrobend, a metal alloy that melts at 60 C, to fuse the actuator and the rest of the mechanism together. A film heater wrapped around the coupler melts the metal, and Negator springs drive the mechanism into its stowed position. The fail-safe actuates using 6.75 Watts for 5 minutes in the event of an actuator failure.

Richard S Blomquist

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES