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Verification Challenges of Dynamic Testing of Space Flight Hardware

The Six Degree-of-Freedom Dynamic Test System (SDTS) is a test facility at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas for performing dynamic verification of space structures and hardware. Some examples of past and current tests include the verification of on-orbit robotic inspection systems, space vehicle assembly procedures and docking/berthing systems. The facility is able to integrate a dynamic simulation of on-orbit spacecraft mating or demating using flight-like mechanical interface hardware. A force moment sensor is utilized for input to the simulation during the contact phase, thus simulating the contact dynamics. While the verification of flight hardware presents many unique challenges, one particular area of interest is with respect to the use of external measurement systems to ensure accurate feedback of dynamic contact. There are many commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) measurement systems available on the market, and the test facility measurement systems have evolved over time to include two separate COTS systems. The first system incorporates infra-red sensing cameras, while the second system employs a laser interferometer to determine position and orientation data. The specific technical challenges with the measurement systems in a large dynamic environment include changing thermal and humidity levels, operational area and measurement volume, dynamic tracking, and data synchronization. The facility is located in an expansive high-bay area that is occasionally exposed to outside temperature when large retractable doors at each end of the building are opened. The laser interferometer system, in particular, is vulnerable to the environmental changes in the building. The operational area of the test facility itself is sizeable, ranging from seven meters wide and five meters deep to as much as seven meters high. Both facility measurement systems have desirable measurement volumes and the accuracies vary within the respective volumes. In addition, because this is a dynamic facility with a moving test bed, direct line-of-sight may not be available at all times between the measurement sensors and the tracking targets. Finally, the feedback data from the active test bed along with the two external measurement systems must be synchronized to allow for data correlation. To ensure the desired accuracy and resolution of these systems, calibration of the systems must be performed regularly. New innovations in sensor technology itself are periodically incorporated into the facility s overall measurement scheme. In addressing the challenges of the measurement systems, the facility is able to provide essential position and orientation data to verify the dynamic performance of space flight hardware.

Winnitoy, Susan↗

Structural Dynamic Assessment of the GN2 Piping System for NASA's New and Powerful Reverberant Acoustic Test Facility

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Glenn Research Center (GRC) has led the design and build of the new world-class vibroacoustic test capabilities at the NASA GRC's Plum Brook Station in Sandusky, Ohio, USA from 2007 to 2011. SAIC-Benham has completed construction of a new reverberant acoustic test facility to support the future testing needs of NASA's space exploration program and commercial customers. The large Reverberant Acoustic Test Facility (RATF) is approximately 101,000 cubic feet in volume and was designed to operate at a maximum empty chamber acoustic overall sound pressure level (OASPL) of 163 dB. This combination of size and acoustic power is unprecedented amongst the world s known active reverberant acoustic test facilities. Initial checkout acoustic testing was performed on March 2011 by SAIC-Benham at test levels up to 161 dB OASPL. During testing, several branches of the gaseous nitrogen (GN2) piping system, which supply the fluid to the noise generating acoustic modulators, failed at their T-junctions connecting the 12 in. supply line to their respective 4 in. branch lines. The problem was initially detected when the oxygen sensors in the horn room indicated a lower than expected oxygen level from which was inferred GN2 leaks in the piping system. In subsequent follow up inspections, cracks were identified in the failed T-junction connections through non-destructive evaluation testing. Through structural dynamic modeling of the piping system, the root cause of the T-junction connection failures was determined. The structural dynamic assessment identified several possible corrective design improvements to the horn room piping system. The effectiveness of the chosen design repairs were subsequently evaluated in September 2011 during acoustic verification testing to 161 dB OASPL.

McNelis, Mark E.↗

Identifying Emerging Safety Threats Through Topic Modeling in the Aviation Safety Reporting System: A Covid-19 Study

The NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) is a voluntary, confidential aviation safety reporting system. The ASRS receives reports from pilots, air traffic controllers, flight attendants, and others involved in aviation operations. The reports are de-identified and coded by ASRS expert safety analysts, and a short descriptive synopsis is written to describe the safety issue. The de-identified reports are then disseminated to the aviation community in many ways, including via an online database, Safety Alert Bulletins, For Your Information Notices, and the CALLBACK newsletter. In this work, we consider whether we can improve the grouping, linking, and understanding of safety concerns through topic modeling. Specifically, we use topic modeling as a building block to identify emerging safety threats over time. This unsupervised approach, we argue, offers the flexibility to identify new emerging themes in this large dataset by constructing different timelines based on the content similarity of ASRS report narratives. This method's unsupervised nature improves upon related research, which is limited to pre-defined labels and therefore can not fully capture emerging safety threats. We apply our method to all ASRS reports in 2020 to assess if the generated timelines can highlight COVID-19 as it is emerging as a safety threat in incoming ASRS reports. We perform both a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the automatically constructed timelines. The qualitative evaluation is performed by describing the evolution of top terms in the timelines, generated by our method, which we found explicitly convey the themes of COVID-19. Separately, we use a set of 1,213 COVID-19 reports from 2020 that were manually identified by ASRS analysts to quantitatively evaluate the COVID-19 reports distribution across the timelines. Our results have shown that COVID-19 emergence can be identified using the top terms that were generated by topic modeling. The top terms in topic modeling therefore can serve as a summary alternative to manually inspecting reports. Moreover, leveraging the manually identified COVID-19 reports, we found the manually identified timelines accounted for over 70% of the COVID-19 reports curated by the ASRS analysts, which demonstrates the potential of this approach for facilitating the understanding of safety concerns as they emerge and evolve. This method shows great potential to understand aerospace safety threats and other narrative- driven incident report databases.

ASRS↗

Identifying Emerging Safety Threats Through Topic Modeling in the Aviation Safety Reporting System: A COVID-19 Study

The NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) is a voluntary, confidential aviation safety reporting system. The ASRS receives reports from pilots, air traffic controllers, flight attendants, and others involved in aviation operations. The reports are de-identified and coded by ASRS expert safety analysts, and a short descriptive synopsis is written to describe the safety issue. The de-identified reports are then disseminated to the aviation community in many ways, including via an online database, Safety Alert Bulletins, For Your Information Notices, and the CALLBACK newsletter. In this work, we consider whether we can improve the grouping, linking, and understanding of safety concerns through topic modeling. Specifically, we use topic modeling as a building block to identify emerging safety threats over time. This unsupervised approach, we argue, offers the flexibility to identify new emerging themes in this large dataset by constructing different timelines based on the content similarity of ASRS report narratives. This method's unsupervised nature improves upon related research, which is limited to pre-defined labels and therefore can not fully capture emerging safety threats. We apply our method to all ASRS reports in 2020 to assess if the generated timelines can highlight COVID-19 as it is emerging as a safety threat in incoming ASRS reports. We perform both a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the automatically constructed timelines. The qualitative evaluation is performed by describing the evolution of top terms in the timelines, generated by our method, which we found explicitly convey the themes of COVID-19. Separately, we use a set of 1,213 COVID-19 reports from 2020 that were manually identified by ASRS analysts to quantitatively evaluate the COVID-19 reports distribution across the timelines. Our results have shown that COVID-19 emergence can be identified using the top terms that were generated by topic modeling. The top terms in topic modeling therefore can serve as a summary alternative to manually inspecting reports. Moreover, leveraging the manually identified COVID-19 reports, we found the manually identified timelines accounted for over 70% of the COVID-19 reports curated by the ASRS analysts, which demonstrates the potential of this approach for facilitating the understanding of safety concerns as they emerge and evolve. This method shows great potential to understand aerospace safety threats and other narrative- driven incident report databases.

ASRS↗

Access from Space: A New Perspective on NASA's Space Transportation Technology Requirements and Opportunities

The need for robust and reliable access from space is clearly demonstrated by the recent loss of the Space Shuttle Columbia; as well as the NASA s goals to get the Shuttle re-flying and extend its life, build new vehicles for space access, produce successful robotic landers and s a q k ret~rr? ~llisrions, and maximize the science content of ambitious outer planets missions that contain nuclear reactors which must be safe for re-entry after possible launch aborts. The technology lynch pin of access from space is hypersonic entry systems such the thermal protection system, along with navigation, guidance and control (NG&C). But it also extends to descent and landing systems such as parachutes, airbags and their control systems. Current space access technology maturation programs such as NASA s Next Generation Launch Technology (NGLT) program or the In-Space Propulsion (ISP) program focus on maturing laboratory demonstrated technologies for potential adoption by specific mission applications. A key requirement for these programs success is a suitable queue of innovative technologies and advanced concepts to mature, including mission concepts enabled by innovative, cross cutting technology advancements. When considering space access, propulsion often dominates the capability requirements, as well as the attention and resources. From the perspective of access from space some new cross cutting technology drivers come into view, along with some new capability opportunities. These include new miniature vehicles (micro, nano, and picosats), advanced automated systems (providing autonomous on-orbit inspection or landing site selection), and transformable aeroshells (to maximize capabilities and minimize weight). This paper provides an assessment of the technology drivers needed to meet future access from space mission requirements, along with the mission capabilities that can be envisioned from innovative, cross cutting access from space technology developments.

Rasky, Daniel J.↗

Storm Water Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPPP) for the Limited Area, Multi-Purpose (LAMP) High Bay Laboratory

Kier + Wright, as Qualified SWPPP Developer (QSD), puts forth this Storm Water Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPPP) for the Limited Area, Multi-Purpose (LAMP) High Bay Laboratory facility (Project) located at Sandia National Laboratories, 7011 East Avenue, CA. The property is owned by the U.S. Department of Energy, and managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC. The project proposes converting an asphalt parking lot into a new high bay machine shop building and a low bay office building. Per the California State Water Resources Control Board’s (California State Water Board) Construction General Permit (CGP), a SWPPP is required when 1 acre or more of land is disturbed. The project site area of 1.6 acres exceeds the minimum acreage threshold of 1 acre and therefore requires SWPPP implementation. QSD has determined the sediment risk for this project, based on soil type at the site and starting and ending dates of construction, to be low (Section 3.4.1 and Appendix B). Receiving water for this project is the Arroyo Seco. QSD has determined the Arroyo Seco to be a high-risk receiving water because it has the three beneficial uses of “spawn”, “cold”, and “migratory” (Sections 3.3 and 3.4.2 and Appendix B). QSD has determined the overall risk level for the site to be Risk Level 2, based on a combination of low sediment risk and high receiving water risk (Appendix B). As such, QSD has delineated a variety of Best Management Practices (BMPs) to be employed during project construction to reduce or eliminate pollutants in stormwater runoff or any other discharges from the Project site. In addition to site-specific BMPs, this SWPPP report provides instruction for on site monitoring. Electronic copies of required documentation such as inspection reports, REAPs, annual report documentation, etc. shall be submitted to NTESS Sandia Delegated Representative via Newforma.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SIGMA: A Knowledge-Based Simulation Tool Applied to Ecosystem Modeling

The need for better technology to facilitate building, sharing and reusing models is generally recognized within the ecosystem modeling community. The Scientists' Intelligent Graphical Modelling Assistant (SIGMA) creates an environment for model building, sharing and reuse which provides an alternative to more conventional approaches which too often yield poorly documented, awkwardly structured model code. The SIGMA interface presents the user a list of model quantities which can be selected for computation. Equations to calculate the model quantities may be chosen from an existing library of ecosystem modeling equations, or built using a specialized equation editor. Inputs for dim equations may be supplied by data or by calculation from other equations. Each variable and equation is expressed using ecological terminology and scientific units, and is documented with explanatory descriptions and optional literature citations. Automatic scientific unit conversion is supported and only physically-consistent equations are accepted by the system. The system uses knowledge-based semantic conditions to decide which equations in its library make sense to apply in a given situation, and supplies these to the user for selection. "Me equations and variables are graphically represented as a flow diagram which provides a complete summary of the model. Forest-BGC, a stand-level model that simulates photosynthesis and evapo-transpiration for conifer canopies, was originally implemented in Fortran and subsequenty re-implemented using SIGMA. The SIGMA version reproduces daily results and also provides a knowledge base which greatly facilitates inspection, modification and extension of Forest-BGC.

Dungan, Jennifer L.↗

Draft Prototype Microreactor Transportation Safety Program

Microreactors are compact reactors capable of producing less than 50 megawatts of electrical energy. Typically, these reactors are factory-fabricated and designed to be easily transportable by truck, rail, vessel, or air. Microreactor designs often assume that the unit can be transported containing either unirradiated or irradiated fuel. The interest in microreactors is driven by several factors, including the need to generate power on at remote locations, at military installations, at facilities such as data centers, and in areas recovering from natural disasters. The U.S. Department of Defense is actively pursuing the microreactor concept to meet the increasing energy demands of military operations that require portable and dense power sources. Commercial vendors are also exploring microreactor concepts. The report Microreactor Transportation Emergency Planning Challenges (Maheras et al. 2024) outlined the emergency planning challenges associated with the transportation of microreactors by road, rail, and by barge/ship. The successful commercial deployment and redeployment of microreactors will also require the development of microreactor transportation safety programs. The elements in these safety programs are not specific to microreactors; however, the transport of microreactors may pose unique challenges in these areas. This report builds on the report Microreactor Transportation Emergency Planning Challenges (Maheras et al. 2024) and develops the elements of a prototype microreactor transportation safety program that describes the elements that should be contained vendor-developed microreactor transportation safety programs, identifying the unique elements associated with microreactor transport. This will provide vendors and their transportation contractors a basis for their transportation planning and will accelerate the commercial deployment and redeployment of microreactors by identifying those issues unique to microreactor transport. The emphasis of this report is on highway transport of microreactors. This is based on a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission transportation package approval strategy of crawl-walk-run, where transport by highway is evaluated first (Coles et al. 2021, 2024, Maheras et al. 2021), then other surface modes (rail and barge/ship), and finally air transport. Evaluation of maritime transport of microreactors was recently initiated (Rigato et al. 2024, Maheras et al. 2025). The report first discusses microreactors in general and microreactor transportation safety program planning assumptions. The report then provides a description of the transportation safety planning process and provides an extensive discussion of the elements of transportation safety programs. Specific elements examined included transportation roles and responsibilities, transportation planning, transportation mode and route selection, carrier selection, transportation packaging, advance notification of shipments, public information and communications, emergency response plans and procedures, inspections, security, safe parking, shipment tracking, weather and road conditions, medical preparedness, training and exercises, and program evaluation. The report then identifies the unique elements of a transportation safety program associated with microreactor transport. These unique elements were in the areas of: the unusual nature of microreactor designs, compensatory measures, increased radiation dose rates in the vicinity of microreactors, transportation package approval versus 10 CFR 50.59, and the use of a risk-informed transportation package approval process.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Thermal Protection Systems Technology Transfer from Apollo and Space Shuttle to the Orion Program

This paper describes how the Orion program is utilizing the Thermal Protection System (TPS) experience from the Apollo and Space Shuttle programs to reduce program risk and improve affordability to meet NASA's future manned exploration missions. The Orion program successfully completed the Exploration Flight Test (EFT-1) mission in 2014 and is currently assembling, integrating, and testing the next spacecraft for the Exploration Mission (EM-1) to meet the flight test objectives of an unmanned orbital mission to the moon and return to earth in 2019. The Orion spacecraft production operations are located in the Neil Armstrong Operations and Checkout (O&C) facility at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) providing an affordable and seamless delivery approach of vehicles directly to the launch site eliminating spacecraft transportation and additional checkout testing. Innovative vehicle design, manufacturing and test operations approaches are maturing and evolving with each Orion vehicle build to support the challenging NASA exploration mission requirements beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) while reducing program cost and schedule impacts. An example of Orion's evolution is the incorporation of an improved heat shield design, assembly and testing approach to meet the higher re-entry velocities for a lunar return for the EM-1 mission. The EFT- 1 heat shield was based on the Apollo heat shield manufacturing processes and was assembled at a supplier location and then transported to KSC for final integration. The EM-1 heat shield is now manufactured, assembled, tested, and installed into the spacecraft at the O&C facility reducing program cost and production schedules. The transition of the Space Shuttle TPS capabilities has enabled Orion to provide a human rated capsule design using proven materials and processes established over years of orbiter re-entry missions. The Orion Crew Module (CM) TPS configuration is derived from the Apollo CM approach utilizing improved materials and processes developed from the Space Shuttle program. The Orion EFT-1 heat shield utilized the Avcoat ablative material from Apollo which was injected into a honeycomb substrate and has been updated for EM-1 incorporating a block configuration bonded to a composite shell structure. This approach utilizes the proven Avcoat material for the heat shield ablator and is utilizing derived bonding and inspection methods and techniques from the Space Shuttle tile experience. The Orion back shell TPS configuration is based on Space Shuttle tile designs using proven tile materials and coatings. The Orion forward bay cover utilizes the high temperature tiles similar to the back shell tiles and low temperature blankets derived from the Space Shuttle program reducing weight impacts. Space Shuttle Multi-Layer Insulation (MLI) is installed in the Orion capsule to control the interior temperature environment providing a light weight design. These TPS design approaches have performed successfully on the Orion first flight test on EFT-1 and are incorporated in the configuration for the next flight test for EM-1. Completion of these two flight tests will certify the TPS for the Orion program for human rated exploration missions and has reduced the development cost to the Orion program. In addition to transitioning the Space Shuttle TPS design configurations to Orion, the supporting manufacturing infrastructure, manufacturing processes, and inspection methods are also incorporated into the Orion assembly operations at KSC. This has avoided significant startup schedule and costs impacts of new capabilities and development of support operations necessary to fabricate, install, inspect, and validate the TPS installations for the Orion spacecraft. The Thermal Protection System Facility (TPSF) which supported the Space Shuttle program provides the heat shield Avcoat blocks and the back shell AETB-8 tiles for Orion program. Extending the existing Space Shuttle TPS operations at KSC provides onsite support to the Orion spacecraft assembly operations. A significant benefit to the Orion program is the transition of the Space Shuttle technician work force at KSC. This highly skilled workforce was able to transition to the Orion program and immediately support the TPS installation operations. They brought with them the human rated manufacturing and assembly operations culture that was critical to the Space Shuttle success avoiding the retraining cost and schedule impacts of a new workforce to Orion. The technician skills certification program from the Space Shuttle was found to be compatible with the Lockheed Martin technician certification programs enabling a seamless training process utilizing process similarity avoiding the cost of retraining the work force to Orion standards. The existing workforce is certificated for multiple processes enabling reassignment of technicians to other tasks in the Orion AI&P operations reducing the overall touch labor manpower requirements. Additional benefits of using the Space Shuttle workforce is the incorporation of the lessons learned from Space Shuttle processes to improve the Orion TPS processes. This has resulted in a continuous evolution of TPS processes to improve the producibility and reduce the program cost for the TPS for the Orion program. Transitioning the Apollo and Space Shuttle TPS designs, processes, and technician workforce has been instrumental in enabling Orion to successfully meet the program challenges for NASA's exploration missions of the future.

Stewart, Michael↗

In situ detection and characterization of alkali-silica reaction damage in concrete using contactless ultrasonic wavefield imaging

Here we present work to characterize cracking damage in concrete caused by alkali-silica reactivity distress. We apply contactless ultrasonic scan inspection, exploiting Rayleigh wave scattering from concrete inhomogeneities. The scanning system utilizes a multi-channel MEMS sensor array to collect ultrasonic wavefield data from concrete subjected to ASR-promoting environments. The location and extent of ASR damage are established by internal expansion measurements from embedded strain gauges, scanning electron microscope images of cored samples, and expansion measurements from companion samples. A wavefield data processing method extracts oscillatory fields from the ultrasonic wavefield data to detect distinct zones of ASR damage. A damage index is proposed to further characterize the extent of ASR damage. The results confirm the feasibility and accuracy of the approach to characterize ASR damage in concrete. The fully contactless ultrasonic scanning measurement system does not require separate material samples and enables in situ characterization of ASR damage within concrete structures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Object manipulation in immersive virtual environments: Hand Motion tracking technology and snap-to-fit function

There have been recent efforts to use virtual reality and manipulation to train construction workers and inspection. However, there is a lack of research efforts comparing and evaluating virtual manipulation hardware for construction tasks. Moreover, the current practice of virtual manipulation has limited functionality to guide users with the placement of objects in virtual environments. To address these issues, this paper presents 1) a detailed case study that compares three types of manipulation hardware (image-based, infrared-based, and magnetic-based) for construction applications and 2) a snap-to-fit method that improves the VM through solving limitations of the advanced virtual reality interaction metaphors. The latter enhances the placement process for manipulation by comparing two models (e.g., scan and BIM models) for proper placement in assembly scenarios. Finally, the case study results show that magnetic-based systems outperform others in construction scenarios. Lastly, the snap-to-fit function was validated in terms of accuracy and time performance.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Hail Size Distribution Mapping

A 3-D weather radar visualization software program was developed and implemented as part of an experimental Launch Pad 39 Hail Monitor System. 3DRadPlot, a radar plotting program, is one of several software modules that form building blocks of the hail data processing and analysis system (the complete software processing system under development). The spatial and temporal mapping algorithms were originally developed through research at the University of Central Florida, funded by NASA s Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM), where the goal was to merge National Weather Service (NWS) Next-Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) volume reflectivity data with drop size distribution data acquired from a cluster of raindrop disdrometers. In this current work, we adapted these algorithms to process data from a cluster of hail disdrometers positioned around Launch Pads 39A or 39B, along with the corresponding NWS radar data. Radar data from all NWS NEXRAD sites is archived at the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). That data can be readily accessed at . 3DRadPlot plots Level III reflectivity data at four scan elevations (this software is available at Open Channel Software, ). By using spatial and temporal interpolation/extrapolation based on hydrometeor fall dynamics, we can merge the hail disdrometer array data coupled with local Weather Surveillance Radar-1988, Doppler (WSR-88D) radial velocity and reflectivity data into a 4-D (3-D space and time) picture of hail size distributions. Hail flux maps can then be generated and used for damage prediction and assessment over specific surfaces corresponding to structures within the disdrometer array volume. Immediately following a hail storm, specific damage areas and degree of damage can be identified for inspection crews.

Source record↗

Predicting Biological Cleanliness: An Empirical Bayes Approach for Spacecraft Bioburden Accounting

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Bayesian Framework for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Hail Disrometer Array for Launch Systems Support

Prior to launch, the space shuttle might be described as a very large thermos bottle containing substantial quantities of cryogenic fuels. Because thermal insulation is a critical design requirement, the external wall of the launch vehicle fuel tank is covered with an insulating foam layer. This foam is fragile and can be damaged by very minor impacts, such as that from small- to medium-size hail, which may go unnoticed. In May 1999, hail damage to the top of the External Tank (ET) of STS-96 required a rollback from the launch pad to the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) for repair of the insulating foam. Because of the potential for hail damage to the ET while exposed to the weather, a vigilant hail sentry system using impact transducers was developed as a hail damage warning system and to record and quantify hail events. The Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Hail Monitor System, a joint effort of the NASA and University Affiliated Spaceport Technology Development Contract (USTDC) Physics Labs, was first deployed for operational testing in the fall of 2006. Volunteers from the Community Collaborative Rain. Hail, and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) in conjunction with Colorado State University were and continue to be active in testing duplicate hail monitor systems at sites in the hail prone high plains of Colorado. The KSC Hail Monitor System (HMS), consisting of three stations positioned approximately 500 ft from the launch pad and forming an approximate equilateral triangle (see Figure 1), was deployed to Pad 39B for support of STS-115. Two months later, the HMS was deployed to Pad 39A for support of STS-116. During support of STS-117 in late February 2007, an unusual hail event occurred in the immediate vicinity of the exposed space shuttle and launch pad. Hail data of this event was collected by the HMS and analyzed. Support of STS-118 revealed another important application of the hail monitor system. Ground Instrumentation personnel check the hail monitors daily when a vehicle is on the launch pad, with special attention after any storm suspected of containing hail. If no hail is recorded by the HMS, the vehicle and pad inspection team has no need to conduct a thorough inspection of the vehicle immediately following a storm. On the afternoon of July 13, 2007, hail on the ground was reported by observers at the VAB, about three miles west of Pad 39A, as well as at several other locations around Kennedy Space Center. The HMS showed no impact detections, indicating that the shuttle had not been damaged by any of the numerous hail events which occurred that day.

Lane, John E.↗

Near-term Persistent Platform Orbital Testbed: Three Candidate Architecture Options

On-orbit Servicing, Assembly, and Manufacturing (OSAM) will revolutionize the space industry by transforming the concept of operations of space systems and enabling new, radically different system implementations. These new implementations will benefit from a novel persistent asset design paradigm which focuses on evolvable designs that are tailored to the operational environment, not the launch environment. In addition, the ability to launch sub-systems independently enable future persistent assets to economically expand in capability and size, achieving cost effective and productive operations lasting for decades like terrestrial observatories. With few exceptions (International Space Station, Hubble Space Telescope, Mission Extension Vehicle customers), current space systems are not visited once they are operational. Leveraging emerging low cost commercial launch provides the ability to repeatedly and routinely revisit space systems. Thus, revolutionary new approaches for space system design are possible, creating completely new opportunities for small businesses and accelerating the growth of already established space industries. To usher in the revolutionary new operational paradigm, two things are needed. First, to build confidence in the technology and new paradigm, there must be a leading example, a bellwether persistent asset, that demonstrates the reliability and maturity of the new persistent asset paradigm (where repeated visits are common). Second, in order to rapidly advance and validate OSAM capabilities, an efficient means is required to conduct tests in the space environment. A persistent platform testbed satisfies both these needs. The space environment exhibits a plethora of characteristics that are difficult and costly to accurately simulate for a full system in a terrestrial laboratory, such as near zero gravity, a wide range of ionizing radiation types, atomic oxygen, and micro-meteoroids and space debris traveling at high velocity. In addition, since persistent assets range in mass from a few grams to several metric tons, it is difficult to accurately simulate interactions between these systems and visiting vehicles (that also exhibit a wide range of varying masses and capabilities). These interactions include the transmission of forces and/or exchanging mass (in the form of instruments, fuel, robotic assets, etc.). Thus, a rapid, versatile and cost efficient in-space testing capability that includes a persistent test platform and a surrounding in-space test zone is needed to mature technologies through experimentation. The testbed can provide common services, such as: power, thermal control, vibration isolation, data transmission between experiments and terrestrial experimenters, station-keeping, pointing, and robotic agents that can be leveraged by customer experiments. The onboard robotic agents can be used to provide payload handling services, such as: assembly, change out or upgrade, relocation, connecting/disconnecting utilities, inspection, repair or servicing, etc. Since the persistent platform cost will be amortized over many hosted payloads, its services can eventually be offered at a price much lower than if one were to design a unique and dedicated spacecraft and mission for those few experiments. The key to achieving an effective testbed is providing efficient cost effective access and infrastructure to a variety of commercial, academic and government customers coupled with extensibility, in the capability of an individual persistent platform test bed or replication of the test bed in a different operational regime. Three potential options for implementing a test bed were developed and evaluated in this study.

Persistent Platform↗

Near-term Persistent Platform Orbital Testbed: Three Candidate Architecture Options

On-orbit Servicing, Assembly, and Manufacturing (OSAM) will revolutionize the space industry by transforming the concept of operations of space systems and enabling new, radically different system implementations. These new implementations will benefit from a novel persistent asset design paradigm which focuses on evolvable designs that are tailored to the operational environment, not the launch environment. In addition, the ability to launch sub-systems independently enable future persistent assets to economically expand in capability and size, achieving cost effective and productive operations lasting for decades like terrestrial observatories. With few exceptions (International Space Station, Hubble Space Telescope, Mission Extension Vehicle customers), current space systems are not visited once they are operational. Leveraging emerging low cost commercial launch provides the ability to repeatedly and routinely revisit space systems. Thus, revolutionary new approaches for space system design are possible, creating completely new opportunities for small businesses and accelerating the growth of already established space industries. To usher in the revolutionary new operational paradigm, two things are needed. First, to build confidence in the technology and new paradigm, there must be a leading example, a bellwether persistent asset, that demonstrates the reliability and maturity of the new persistent asset paradigm (where repeated visits are common). Second, in order to rapidly advance and validate OSAM capabilities, an efficient means is required to conduct tests in the space environment. A persistent platform testbed satisfies both these needs. The space environment exhibits a plethora of characteristics that are difficult and costly to accurately simulate for a full system in a terrestrial laboratory, such as near zero gravity, a wide range of ionizing radiation types, atomic oxygen, and micro-meteoroids and space debris traveling at high velocity. In addition, since persistent assets range in mass from a few grams to several metric tons, it is difficult to accurately simulate interactions between these systems and visiting vehicles (that also exhibit a wide range of varying masses and capabilities). These interactions include the transmission of forces and/or exchanging mass (in the form of instruments, fuel, robotic assets, etc.). Thus, a rapid, versatile and cost efficient in-space testing capability that includes a persistent test platform and a surrounding in-space test zone is needed to mature technologies through experimentation. The testbed can provide common services, such as: power, thermal control, vibration isolation, data transmission between experiments and terrestrial experimenters, station-keeping, pointing, and robotic agents that can be leveraged by customer experiments. The onboard robotic agents can be used to provide payload handling services, such as: assembly, change out or upgrade, relocation, connecting/disconnecting utilities, inspection, repair or servicing, etc. Since the persistent platform cost will be amortized over many hosted payloads, its services can eventually be offered at a price much lower than if one were to design a unique and dedicated spacecraft and mission for those few experiments. The key to achieving an effective testbed is providing efficient cost effective access and infrastructure to a variety of commercial, academic and government customers coupled with extensibility, in the capability of an individual persistent platform test bed or replication of the test bed in a different operational regime. Three potential options for implementing a test bed were developed and evaluated in this study.

Persistent Platform↗

Materials for Advanced Ultra-Supercritical (A-USC) Steam Turbines --- A-USC Component Demonstration

The U.S. Advanced Ultra-Supercritical (A-USC) Consortium was formed in 2001 as a government/industry program, sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Ohio Coal Development Office (OCDO) and cost shared by industrial and not-for-profit partners. The purpose of the consortium was to advance the state of the art for power generation by evaluating and developing materials that allow the use of advanced steam cycles in coal-based power plants. These advanced cycles, with steam temperatures up to 1400°F (760°C), can increase the efficiency of coal-fired boilers from an average of 35% (current U.S. fleet) to more than 45% higher heating value (HHV) (>49% lower heating value [LHV]). The increase in a plant’s efficiency is limited unless new materials able to withstand these higher operating temperatures and pressures are identified and approved for use. The A-USC Consortium identified these needed materials during earlier phases of the program. It developed the welding and joining techniques along with manufacturing processes for casting and wrought products made from these new high-nickel alloys. It subjected these materials to extensive laboratory and steam loop testing. It then obtained ASME code approval for their use in U.S. boiler systems. The program’s successes leave this last remaining activity (ComTest Phase 2) that the U.S. utility industry has recommended to be accomplished prior to commercialization. The focus of the activity is the evaluation and demonstration of commercial readiness for “full scale” components to be made from these nickel-based alloy materials and provided by a U.S. domestic supply chain that is new to working with these alloys. According to studies completed by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the cost of an A-USC plant is approximately 20% higher than a non-A-USC plant because of its use of nickel-based alloys needed for the high temperature operating conditions. However, CO 2 reductions of approximately 30% from the current fleet average provide a strong incentive for its consideration. The actual costs and perceived value for CO 2 abatement will determine whether new or retrofitted plants are undertaken, although decisions to build A-USC plants in India would indicate its economic feasibility while also being part of a global carbon emissions strategy. The work by the A-USC Consortium, prior to the start of the ComTest project, has included lab scale and pilot scale materials testing, both in air and oxy-combustion. This testing has included air-cooled and steam-cooled “loops” that were installed into existing operating utility boilers to gain exposure of these materials to realistic conditions of high temperature and corrosion caused by the constituents in the coal ash. The A-USC Consortium also gained ASME Code approval of the Inconel 740 material, has cast and extruded the largest high nickel precipitation hardened alloys, and developed unique welding techniques to avoid problems identified by the competing European program. However, as valuable as these material test loops and accomplishments have been for obtaining information, their scale is below that required to minimize the risk associated for a U.S. utility to build a multibillion-dollar A-USC power plant. To reduce the final identified risk barrier to full-scale commercialization of these advanced materials and systems, the A-USC Consortium (guided by a utility industry advisory committee) has identified the key areas of the technology they desire to see as being capable of full-scale manufacturing and/or fabrication from an identified, capable U.S. domestic supplier base. A significant amount of work was accomplished during Phase 1 to identity the components, as well as the component size, that would be manufactured from advanced alloys such as Inconel 740H or Haynes 282 alloys. Pathways to supply these components for ComTest have been identified, as well as any further development that would be required. The Phase 2 effort used Phase 1 findings for designing these key full-scale components for A-USC boilers and turbines to include large castings; extrusions, forgings, fabrication of water walls and steam loops with headers from advanced materials, raw material (such as pipe extrusion billets) are at the commercial readiness level to permit advancement to a demonstration project. The Phase 2 work scope was addressed by a diverse team, including government, industry, and not-for-profit partners. The work scope under Phase 2 addressed fabrication of components identified as being outside of the proven capabilities of the existing supply chain, including the following: Steam turbine rotor forging and Haynes 282 nozzle carrier casting Superheater and reheater header and tube assemblies Large-diameter pipe extrusions and forgings Test valve articles to support ASME Code approval. In addition, key fabrication steps were completed, including boiler weld overlays and simulated field repairs. Throughout, extensive inspection and quality assurance testing of the components were performed. The team worked to advance ASME Code approval for key components and processes. Although much of the focus of ComTest Phase 2 was the high-temperature nickel-based alloy materials, a broader range of materials were incorporated, which would be representative of the materials used in full-scale A-USC power plant applications and have cross-cutting applicability on other high-temperature power generation options, such as advanced nuclear, supercritical CO 2 cycles, and central solar receivers. This report that has been submitted is organized in the following manner: Section 1 contains an Executive Summary. Section 2 discusses the ComTest project background and organization. Section 3 discusses project management and reporting. Section 4 discusses the procurement of nickel-based alloy and other A-USC materials and components. Section 5 discusses the fabrication of procurement of nickel-based alloy and other A-USC materials and components. Section 6 discusses the fabrication of cast nickel-based A-USC steam turbine components. Section 7 discusses the fabrication of forged nickel-based A-USC steam turbine piping and steam pipe components. Section 8 discusses the qualification of pressure relieve valves (PRVs) for A-USC power plants. Section 9 discusses proposed plans for future evaluation of A-USC components. Section 10 contains the summary and conclusion.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗