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NASA NTRS2015

International Space Station (ISS) Anomalies Trending Study

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) set out to utilize data mining and trending techniques to review the anomaly history of the International Space Station (ISS) and provide tools for discipline experts not involved with the ISS Program to search anomaly data to aid in identification of areas that may warrant further investigation. Additionally, the assessment team aimed to develop an approach and skillset for integrating data sets, with the intent of providing an enriched data set for discipline experts to investigate that is easier to navigate, particularly in light of ISS aging and the plan to extend its life into the late 2020s. This report contains the outcome of the NESC Assessment.

Beil, Robert J.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Measurement of Impulsive Thrust from a Closed Radio Frequency Cavity in Vacuum

A vacuum test campaign evaluating the impulsive thrust performance of a tapered RF test article excited in the TM212 mode at 1,937 megahertz (MHz) has been completed. The test campaign consisted of a forward thrust phase and reverse thrust phase at less than 8 x 10(exp -6) Torr vacuum with power scans at 40 watts, 60 watts, and 80 watts. The test campaign included a null thrust test effort to identify any mundane sources of impulsive thrust, however none were identified. Thrust data from forward, reverse, and null suggests that the system is consistently performing with a thrust to power ratio of 1.2 +/- 0.1 mN/kW.

White, Harold↗
NASA NTRS2017

Extravehicular Activity Operations Concepts Under Communication Latency and Bandwidth Constraints

The Biologic Analog Science Associated with Lava Terrains (BASALT) project is a multi-year program dedicated to iteratively develop, implement, and evaluate concepts of operations (ConOps) and supporting capabilities intended to enable and enhance human scientific exploration of Mars. This pa-per describes the planning, execution, and initial results from the first field deployment, referred to as BASALT-1, which consisted of a series of 10 simulated extravehicular activities (EVAs) on volcanic flows in Idaho's Craters of the Moon (COTM) National Monument. The ConOps and capabilities deployed and tested during BASALT-1 were based on previous NASA trade studies and analog testing. Our primary research question was whether those ConOps and capabilities work acceptably when performing real (non-simulated) biological and geological scientific exploration under 4 different Mars-to-Earth communication conditions: 5 and 15 min one-way light time (OWLT) communication latencies and low (0.512 Mb/s uplink, 1.54 Mb/s downlink) and high (5.0 Mb/s uplink, 10.0 Mb/s downlink) bandwidth conditions representing the lower and higher limits of technical communication capabilities currently proposed for future human exploration missions. The synthesized results of BASALT-1 with respect to the ConOps and capabilities assessment were derived from a variety of sources, including EVA task timing data, network analytic data, and subjective ratings and comments regarding the scientific and operational acceptability of the ConOp and the extent to which specific capabilities were enabling and enhancing, and are presented here. BASALT-1 established preliminary findings that baseline ConOp, software systems, and communication protocols were scientifically and operationally acceptable with minor improvements desired by the "Mars" extravehicular (EV) and intravehicular (IV) crewmembers, but unacceptable with improvements required by the "Earth" Mission Support Center. These data will provide a basis for guiding and prioritizing capability development for future BASALT deployments and, ultimately, future human exploration missions.

Beaton, Kara H.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Certification Strategies using Run-Time Safety Assurance for Part 23 Autopilot Systems

Part 23 aircraft operation, and in particular general aviation, is relatively unsafe when compared to other common forms of vehicle travel. Currently, there exists technologies that could increase safety statistics for these aircraft; however, the high burden and cost of performing the requisite safety critical certification processes for these systems limits their proliferation. For this reason, many entities, including the Federal Aviation Administration, NASA, and the US Air Force, are considering new options for certification for technologies that will improve aircraft safety. Of particular interest, are low cost autopilot systems for general aviation aircraft, as these systems have the potential to positively and significantly affect safety statistics. This paper proposes new systems and techniques, leveraging run-time verification, for the assurance of general aviation autopilot systems, which would be used to supplement the current certification process and provide a viable path for near-term low-cost implementation. In addition, discussions on preliminary experimentation and building the assurance case for a system, based on these principles, is provided.

automatic collision avoidance↗
NASA NTRS2017

Reduced ENSO Variability at the LGM Revealed by an Isotope-Enabled Earth System Model

Studying the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the past can help us better understand its dynamics and improve its future projections. However, both paleoclimate reconstructions and model simulations of ENSO strength at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka B.P.) have led to contradicting results. Here we perform model simulations using the recently developed water isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM). For the first time, model-simulated oxygen isotopes are directly compared with those from ENSO reconstructions using the individual foraminifera analysis (IFA). We find that the LGM ENSO is most likely weaker comparing with the preindustrial. The iCESM suggests that total variance of the IFA records may only reflect changes in the annual cycle instead of ENSO variability as previously assumed. Furthermore, the interpretation of subsurface IFA records can be substantially complicated by the habitat depth of thermocline-dwelling foraminifera and their vertical migration with a temporally varying thermocline.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation;isotope-enabled si↗
NASA NTRS2017

The PMIP4 Contribution to CMIP6-Part 4: Scientific Objectives and Experimental Design of the PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum Experiments and PMIP4 Sensitivity Experiments

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) is one of the suite of paleoclimate simulations included in the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It is an interval when insolation was similar to the present, but global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level was at or close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. The LGM has been a focus for the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) since its inception, and thus many of the problems that might be associated with simulating such a radically different climate are well documented. The LGM state provides an ideal case study for evaluating climate model performance because the changes in forcing and temperature between the LGM and pre-industrial are of the same order of magnitude as those projected for the end of the 21st century. Thus, the CMIP6 LGM experiment could provide additional information that can be used to constrain estimates of climate sensitivity. The design of the Tier 1 LGM experiment (lgm) includes an assessment of uncertainties in boundary conditions, in particular through the use of different reconstructions of the ice sheets and of the change in dust forcing. Additional (Tier 2) sensitivity experiments have been designed to quantify feedbacks associated with land-surface changes and aerosol loadings, and to isolate the role of individual forcings. Model analysis and evaluation will capitalize on the relative abundance of paleoenvironmental observations and quantitative climate reconstructions already available for the LGM.

Kageyama, Masa↗
NASA NTRS2018

Interpreting Precession-Driven δ O-18 Variability in the South Asian Monsoon Region

Speleothem records from the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) region display variability in the ratio of O-18 and O-16 (δ O-18) in calcium carbonate at orbital frequencies. The dominant mode of variability in many of these records reflects cycles of precession. There are several potential explanations for why SASM speleothem records show a strong precession signal, including changes in temperature, precipitation, and circulation. Here we use an Earth system model with water isotope tracers and water-tagging capability to deconstruct the precession signal found in SASM speleothem records. Our results show that cycles of precession-eccentricity produce changes in SASM intensity that correlate with local temperature, precipitation, and δ O-18. However, neither the amount effect nor temperature differences are responsible for the majority of the SASM δ O-18 variability. Instead, changes in the relative moisture contributions from different source regions drive much of the SASM δ O-18 signal, with more nearby moisture sources during Northern Hemisphere summer at aphelion and more distant moisture sources during Northern Hemisphere summer at perihelion. Further, we find that evaporation amplifies the δ O-18 signal of soil water relative to that of precipitation, providing a better match with the SASM speleothem records. This work helps explain a significant portion of the long-term variability found in SASM speleothem records.

paleoclimate↗
NASA NTRS2014

First All-Sky Search for Continuous Gravitational Waves from Unknown Sources in Binary Systems

We present the first results of an all-sky search for continuous gravitational waves from unknown spinning neutron stars in binary systems using LIGO and Virgo data. Using a specially developed analysis program, the TwoSpect algorithm, the search was carried out on data from the sixth LIGO science run and the second and third Virgo science runs. The search covers a range of frequencies from 20 Hz to 520 Hz, a range of orbital periods from 2 to ∼2,254 h and a frequency- and period-dependent range of frequency modulation depths from 0.277 to 100 mHz. This corresponds to a range of projected semimajor axes of the orbit from ∼0.6 × 10(exp −3) ls to ∼6,500 ls assuming the orbit of the binary is circular. While no plausible candidate gravitational wave events survive the pipeline, upper limits are set on the analyzed data. The most sensitive 95% confidence upper limit obtained on gravitational wave strain is 2.3 × 10(exp −24) at 217 Hz, assuming the source waves are circularly polarized. Although this search has been optimized for circular binary orbits, the upper limits obtained remain valid for orbital eccentricities as large as 0.9. In addition, upper limits are placed on continuous gravitational wave emission from the low-mass x-ray binary Scorpius X-1 between 20 Hz and 57.25 Hz.

systems↗
NASA NTRS2013

Parameter Estimation for Compact Binary Coalescence Signals with the First Generation Gravitational-Wave Detector Network

Compact binary systems with neutron stars or black holes are one of the most promising sources for ground-based gravitational-wave detectors. Gravitational radiation encodes rich information about source physics; thus parameter estimation and model selection are crucial analysis steps for any detection candidate events. Detailed models of the anticipated waveforms enable inference on several parameters, such as component masses, spins, sky location and distance, that are essential for new astrophysical studies of these sources. However, accurate measurements of these parameters and discrimination of models describing the underlying physics are complicated by artifacts in the data, uncertainties in the waveform models and in the calibration of the detectors. Here we report such measurements on a selection of simulated signals added either in hardware or software to the data collected by the two LIGO instruments and the Virgo detector during their most recent joint science run, including a blind injection where the signal was not initially revealed to the collaboration. We exemplify the ability to extract information about the source physics on signals that cover the neutron-star and black-hole binary parameter space over the component mass range 1M25M and the full range of spin parameters. The cases reported in this study provide a snapshot of the status of parameter estimation in preparation for the operation of advanced detectors.

Aasi, J.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Updated Benefits for Humanity from the International Space Station

Final document is attached. In 2018, the International Space Station (ISS) [Figure 1] partnership completed a revision for the third edition of the International Space Station Benefits for Humanity, a compilation of case studies of benefits being realized from ISS activities in the areas of human health, Earth observations and disaster response, innovative technology, global education, and economic development of space. The revision included new assessments of economic value and scientific value with more detail than the second edition. The third edition contains updated statistics on the impacts of the benefits as well as new benefits that have developed since the previous publication. This presentation will summarize the updates on behalf of the ISS Program Science Forum, which consists of senior science representatives across the ISS international partnership. An independent consultant determined the economic valuation (EV) of ISS research benefits case studies and the third edition contains the results. The process involved a preliminary assessment of economic, social, and innovation factors. A more detailed assessment followed, which included factors such as addressable market, market penetration, revenue generation, ability to leverage across other applications or customer groups, quality of life improvements, health benefits, environmental benefits, cultural and community cohesion, inspiration, new knowledge, novel approaches, creation of a unique market niche, and research leadership. Because of the unique microgravity environment of the ISS laboratory, the multidisciplinary and international nature of the research, and the significance of the investment in its development, analyzing ISS scientific impacts is an exceptional challenge. As a result, the ISS partnership determined the scientific valuation (SV) of ISS research using a combination of citation analyses, bibliometrics, and narratives of important ISS utilization results. Approximately 2,100 ISS results publications comprised of scientific journal articles, conference proceedings, and gray literature, representing over 5,000 authors and co-authors on Earth were used in this evaluation to enable the communication of impacts of ISS research on various science and technology fields across many countries. The publication also updates and expands the previously described benefits of research results in the areas of space commerce, technology development, human health, environmental change and disaster response, and education activities. Distinct benefits return to Earth from the only orbiting multidisciplinary laboratory of its kind. The ISS is a stepping-stone for future space exploration while also providing findings that develop low Earth orbit as a place for sustained human activity and improve life on our planet.

research↗
NASA NTRS2019

BioBot: Innovative Offloading of Astronauts for More Effective Exploration

The BioBot concept consists of a robotic rover which is capable of traversing the same terrain as a spacesuited human. It carries the primary life support system for the astronaut, including consumables, atmosphere revitalization systems (e.g., CO2 scrubbing, humidity and temperature management, ventilation fan), power system (e.g., battery, power management and distribution),and thermal control system (e.g., water sublimator, cooling water pump), along with umbilical lines to connect to the supported astronaut. Although not technically part of life support, it would be logical for the BioBot to also provide long-range communications, video monitoring, tool and sample transport, and other functions to enable and enhance EVA productivity in planetary surface exploration.The design reference scenario for this concept is that astronauts involved in future lunar or Mars exploration will be on the surface for weeks or months rather than days, and will be involved in regular EVA operations. It is not unreasonable to think of geologists spending several days inEVA exploration each week over a prolonged mission duration, with far more ambitious operational objectives than were typical of Apollo. In this scenario, each astronaut will be accompanied by a "BioBot", which will transport their life support system and consumables, an extended umbilical and umbilical reel, and robotic systems capable of controlling the position and motion of the umbilical. The astronaut will be connected to the robot via the umbilical, carrying only a small emergency open-loop life support system similar to those contained in every PLSS. The robotic mobility base will be designed to be capable of traveling anywhere the astronaut can walk, and will also be useful as a transport for the EVA tools, science instrumentation, and collected samples. In addition, the BioBot can potentially carry the astronaut on traverses as well. Such a system will also be a significant enhancement to public engagement in these future exploration missions, as the robotic vehicles can also support high-resolution cameras and high bandwidth communications gear to providehigh-definition video coverage of each crew throughout each EVA sortie.

Akin, David L.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Tactical Scientific Decision-Making during Crewed Astrobiology Mars Missions

The limitations placed upon human explorers on the surface of Mars will necessitate a methodology for scientific exploration that is different from standard approaches to terrestrial fieldwork and prior crewed exploration of the Moon. In particular, the data transmission limitations and communication latency between Earth and Mars create a unique situation for surface crew in contact with a terrestrial science team. The BASALT research program simulated a series of extravehicular activities (EVAs) in Mars analog terrains under various Mars-relevant bandwidth and latency conditions to investigate how best to approach this problem. Here we discuss tactical decision-making under these conditions, that is, how the crew on Mars interacts with a team of scientists and support personnel on Earth to collect samples of maximum scientific interest. We describe the strategies, protocols, and tools tested in BASALT EVAs and give recommendations on how best to conduct human exploration of Mars with support from Earth-based scientists. We find that even with scientists supporting them, the crew performing the exploration must be trained in the appropriate scientific disciplines in order to provide the terrestrial scientists with enough information to make decisions, but that with appropriate planning and structure, and tools such as a ‘‘dynamic leaderboard,’’ terrestrial scientists can add scientific value to an EVA, even under Mars communication latency

Decision-making↗
NASA NTRS2018

Updated Benefits for Humanity, Third Edition (B4H3), from the International Space Station (ISS)

In 2018, the International Space Station (ISS) [Figure 1] partnership completed a revision for the third edition of the International Space Station Benefits for Humanity, a compilation of case studies of benefits being realized from ISS activities in the areas of human health, Earth observations and disaster response, innovative technology, global education, and economic development of space. The revision included new assessments of economic value and scientific value with more detail than the second edition. The third edition contains updated statistics on the impacts of the benefits as well as new benefits that have developed since the previous publication. This presentation will summarize the updates on behalf of the ISS Program Science Forum, which consists of senior science representatives across the ISS international partnership. An independent consultant determined the economic valuation (EV) of ISS research benefits case studies and the third edition contains the results. The process involved a preliminary assessment of economic, social, and innovation factors. A more detailed assessment followed, which included factors such as addressable market, market penetration, revenue generation, ability to leverage across other applications or customer groups, quality of life improvements, health benefits, environmental benefits, cultural and community cohesion, inspiration, new knowledge, novel approaches, creation of a unique market niche, and research leadership. Because of the unique microgravity environment of the ISS laboratory, the multidisciplinary and international nature of the research, and the significance of the investment in its development, analyzing ISS scientific impacts is an exceptional challenge. As a result, the ISS partnership determined the scientific valuation (SV) of ISS research using a combination of citation analyses, bibliometrics, and narratives of important ISS utilization results. Approximately 2,100 ISS results publications comprised of scientific journal articles, conference proceedings, and gray literature, representing over 5,000 authors and co-authors on Earth were used in this evaluation to enable the communication of impacts of ISS research on various science and technology fields across many countries. The publication also updates and expands the previously described benefits of research results in the areas of space commerce, technology development, human health, environmental change and disaster response, and education activities. Distinct benefits return to Earth from the only orbiting multidisciplinary laboratory of its kind. The ISS is a stepping-stone for future space exploration while also providing findings that develop low Earth orbit as a place for sustained human activity and improve life on our planet.

ISS↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Connected Isotopic Water Cycle in the Community Earth System Model Version 1

Because of the pervasive role of water in the Earth system, the relative abundances of stable isotopologues of water are valuable for understanding atmospheric, oceanic, and biospheric processes, and for interpreting paleoclimate proxy reconstructions. Isotopologues are transported by both largescale and turbulent flows, and the ratio of heavy to light isotopologues changes due to fractionation that can accompany condensation and evaporation processes. Correctly predicting the isotopic distributions requires resolving the relationships between largescale ocean and atmospheric circulation and smallerscale hydrological processes, which can be accomplished within a coupled climate modeling framework. Here we present the water isotopeenabled version of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (iCESM1), which simulates global variations in water isotopic ratios in the atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea ice. In a transient Last Millennium simulation covering the 850-2005 period, iCESM1 correctly captures the latetwentiethcentury structure of δ(exp 18)O and δD over the global oceans, with more limited accuracy over land. The relationship between salinity and seawater δ(exp 18)O is also well represented over the observational period, including interbasin variations. We illustrate the utility of coupled, isotopeenabled simulations using both Last Millennium simulations and freshwater hosing experiments with iCESM1. Closing the isotopic mass balance between all components of the coupled model provides new confidence in the underlying depiction of the water cycle in CESM, while also highlighting areas where the underlying hydrologic balance can be improved. The iCESM1 is poised to be a vital community resource for ongoing model development with both modern and paleoclimate applications.

Brady, E.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Volcanic Eruption Signatures in the Isotope Enabled Last Millennium Ensemble

Explosive volcanic eruptions are one of the largest natural climate perturbations, but few observational constraints exist on either the climate responses to eruptions or the properties (size, hemispheric aerosol distribution, etc.) of the eruptions themselves. Paleoclimate records are thus important sources of information on past eruptions, often through the measurement of oxygen isotopic ratios (𝛿18O) in natural archives. However, since many processes affect 𝛿18O, the dynamical interpretation of these records can be quite complex. Here we present results from new, isotope-enabled members of the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble, documenting eruption-induced 𝛿18O variations throughout the climate system. Eruptions create significant perturbations in the 𝛿18O of precipitation and soil moisture in central/eastern North America, via excitation of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Monsoon Asia and Australia also exhibit strong precipitation and soil 𝛿18O anomalies; in these cases, 𝛿18O may reflect changes to El Niño-Southern Oscillation phase following eruptions. Salinity and seawater 𝛿18O patterns demonstrate the importance of both local hydrologic shifts and the phasing of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation response, both along the equator and in the subtropics. In all cases, the responses are highly sensitive to eruption latitude, which points to the utility of isotopic records in constraining aerosol distribution patterns associated with past eruptions. This is most effective using precipitation 𝛿18O; all Southern eruptions and the majority (66%) of Northern eruptions can be correctly identified. This work thus serves as a starting point for new, quantitative uses of isotopic records for understanding volcanic impacts on climate.

Stevenson, S.↗
NASA NTRS2020

University of Maryland Minimum Crew Cabin Studies ENAE484 X-Hab Final Report

With renewed interest in human spaceflight, and the astronomically high cost to send things into space, NASA is looking into methods for minimizing all aspects of crewed flight. While maintaining a crew of at least two to four people, there are considerations into duration, habitat size, habitat orientation, and many other factors to try and get the most science, safely, for the least amount of money. From these constraints, the class' project was organized. The topic of "Minimum Crew Cabin Sizing" was chosen, with a plan to do experimentation to verify or update some of the volumetric models for various activities. The actual crew cabin itself is something that can easily alter the mass, cost, and development time. In trying to quantify how small is too small { or what can be made smaller { programs can save money, time, and mass with an appropriately sized minimum volume habitat.

David Lee Akin↗
NASA NTRS2020

Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest mode of interannual climate variability in the current climate, influencing ecosystems, agriculture, and weather systems across the globe, but future projections of ENSO frequency and amplitude remain highly uncertain. A comparison of changes in ENSO in a range of past and future climate simulations can provide insights into the sensitivity of ENSO to changes in the mean state, including changes in the seasonality of incoming solar radiation, global average temperatures, and spatial patterns of sea surface temperatures. As a comprehensive set of coupled model simulations is now available for both palaeoclimate time slices (the Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene, and last interglacial) and idealised future warming scenarios (1 % per year CO2 increase, abrupt four-time CO2 increase), this allows a detailed evaluation of ENSO changes in this wide range of climates. Such a comparison can assist in constraining uncertainty in future projections, providing insights into model agreement and the sensitivity of ENSO to a range of factors. The majority of models simulate a consistent weakening of ENSO activity in the last interglacial and mid-Holocene experiments, and there is an ensemble mean reduction of variability in the western equatorial Pacific in the Last Glacial Maximum experiments. Changes in global temperature produce a weaker precipitation response to ENSO in the cold Last Glacial Maximum experiments and an enhanced precipitation response to ENSO in the warm increased CO2 experiments. No consistent relationship between changes in ENSO amplitude and annual cycle was identified across experiments.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)↗