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At least 253 records · Page 14

Water sources and land capacitor effects stimulate observed summer Arctic moistening and warming

The primary sources of recent summer Arctic moistening trends in reanalysis are uncertain, hindering attribution of observed Arctic warming due to radiative effects from water vapor changes. Here, we use a combined online numerical water tracer and circulation nudging approach in the Community Earth System Model to track the sources of water vapor beyond its initial sources. Trends in boreal summer large-scale circulation have driven moistening of the Arctic over recent decades, having a large impact on the Arctic radiative budget, accounting for 94% of the strengthening water vapor radiative feedback. We identify two key regions supplying the Arctic water vapor feedback: Northeast North America and western/central Eurasia. In both regions, anticyclonic circulations over the southwest Atlantic and eastern Europe move moisture from the tropical oceans poleward to high latitude land through precipitation in winter and spring. During summer, evapotranspiration over land releases this water vapor, and it is transported by winds into the Arctic. We refer to this sequence of terrestrial moisture storage and release as the land capacitor effect. Thus, the impacts of circulation changes on poleward moisture transport and land-atmosphere interactions over high latitudes represent the underlying mechanisms of the recent moistening and warming in the Arctic.

Arctic amplification↗

The predictive power of phylogeny on growth rates in soil bacterial communities

Abstract Predicting ecosystem function is critical to assess and mitigate the impacts of climate change. Quantitative predictions of microbially mediated ecosystem processes are typically uninformed by microbial biodiversity. Yet new tools allow the measurement of taxon-specific traits within natural microbial communities. There is mounting evidence of a phylogenetic signal in these traits, which may support prediction and microbiome management frameworks. We investigated phylogeny-based trait prediction using bacterial growth rates from soil communities in Arctic, boreal, temperate, and tropical ecosystems. Here we show that phylogeny predicts growth rates of soil bacteria, explaining an average of 31%, and up to 58%, of the variation within ecosystems. Despite limited overlap in community composition across these ecosystems, shared nodes in the phylogeny enabled ancestral trait reconstruction and cross-ecosystem predictions. Phylogenetic relationships could explain up to 38% (averaging 14%) of the variation in growth rates across the highly disparate ecosystems studied. Our results suggest that shared evolutionary history contributes to similarity in the relative growth rates of related bacteria in the wild, allowing phylogeny-based predictions to explain a substantial amount of the variation in taxon-specific functional traits, within and across ecosystems.

Walkup, Jeth (ORCID:0000000279082963)↗

Overlooked branch turnover creates a widespread bias in forest carbon accounting

Most measurements and models of forest carbon cycling neglect the carbon flux associated with the turnover of branch biomass, a physiological process quantified for other organs (fine roots, leaves, and stems). Synthesizing data from boreal, temperate, and tropical forests (184,815 trees), we found that including branch turnover increased empirical estimates of aboveground wood production by 16% (equivalent to 1.9 Pg Cy −1 globally), of similar magnitude to the observed global forest carbon sinks. In addition, reallocating carbon to branch turnover in model simulations reduced stem wood biomass, a long-lasting carbon storage, by 7 to 17%. This prevailing neglect of branch turnover suggests widespread biases in carbon flux estimates across global datasets and model simulations. Branch litterfall, sometimes used as a proxy for branch turnover, ignores carbon lost from attached dead branches, underestimating branch C turnover by 38% in a pine forest. Modifications to field measurement protocols and existing models are needed to allow a more realistic partitioning of wood production and forest carbon storage.

Lim, Hyungwoo↗

Increased frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past half-century

We demonstrate a tripling in the frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past halfcentury, coinciding with the rise in persistent boreal summer weather extremes. This increase aligns with changes in the underlying climate conditions favoring these events, including amplified Arctic warming and land-sea thermal contrast. We also observe increased prevalence of resonant amplification events following the mature phase of strong El Niño events, suggesting that such events may precondition the mean state conditions in ways that favor large-scale quasi-stationary wave patterns and quasi-resonant wave amplification. Since the impact of anthropogenic warming on quasi-resonant amplification is not well captured by current-generation climate models, it is likely that models are underpredicting the potential increase, indicating even greater risk of persistent extreme summer weather events with ongoing warming.

Arctic amplification↗

Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems

Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, above 60 °N including pan-Arctic tundra and boreal forests) under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b protocol. We analyzed the simulated changes of net primary productivity, vegetation biomass, and soil carbon stocks of eight ecosystem models that were forced by the projections of four global climate models and two atmospheric greenhouse gas pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Our results showed that considerable impacts on ecosystem carbon budgets, particularly primary productivity and vegetation biomass, are very likely to occur in the NHL areas. The models agreed on increases in primary productivity and biomass accumulation, despite considerable inter-model and inter-scenario differences in the magnitudes of the responses. The inter-model variability highlighted the inadequacies of the present models, which fail to consider important components such as permafrost and wildfire. The simulated impacts were attributable primarily to the rapid temperature increases in the NHL and the greater sensitivity of northern vegetation to warming, which contrasted with the less pronounced responses of soil carbon stocks. The simulated increases of vegetation biomass by 30–60 Pg C in this century have implications for climate policy such as the Paris Agreement. Comparison between the results at two warming levels showed the effectiveness of emission reductions in ameliorating the impacts and revealed unavoidable impacts for which adaptation options are urgently needed in the NHL ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Active layer thickness as a function of soil water content

Active layer thickness (ALT) is a critical metric for monitoring permafrost. How soil moisture influences ALT depends on two competing hypotheses: (a) increased soil moisture increases the latent heat of fusion for thaw, resulting in shallower active layers, and (b) increased soil moisture increases soil thermal conductivity, resulting in deeper active layers. To investigate their relative influence on thaw depth, we analyzed the Field Measurements of Soil Moisture and Active Layer Thickness (SMALT) in Alaska and Canada dataset, consisting of thousands of measurements of thaw depth and soil moisture collected at dozens of sites across Alaska and Canada as part of NASA’s Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE). As bulk volumetric water content (VWC) integrated over the entire active layer increases, ALT decreases, supporting the latent heat hypothesis. However, as VWC in the top 12 cm of soil increases, ALT increases, supporting the thermal conductivity hypothesis. Regional temperature variations determine the baseline thaw depth while precipitation may influence the sensitivity of ALT to changes in VWC. Soil latent heat dominates over thermal conductivity in determining ALT, and the effect of bulk VWC on ALT appears consistent across sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: a global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models

Abstract This work presents an analysis of the effect of climate change on surface ozone discussing the related penalties and benefits around the globe from the global modelling perspective based on simulations with five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models. As part of AerChemMIP (Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project) all models conducted simulation experiments considering future climate (ssp370SST) and present-day climate (ssp370pdSST) under the same future emissions trajectory (SSP3-7.0). A multi-model global average climate change benefit on surface ozone of −0.96 ± 0.07 ppbv °C −1 is calculated which is mainly linked to the dominating role of enhanced ozone destruction with higher water vapour abundances under a warmer climate. Over regions remote from pollution sources, there is a robust decline in mean surface ozone concentration on an annual basis as well as for boreal winter and summer varying spatially from −0.2 to −2 ppbv °C −1 , with strongest decline over tropical oceanic regions. The implication is that over regions remote from pollution sources (except over the Arctic) there is a consistent climate change benefit for baseline ozone due to global warming. However, ozone increases over regions close to anthropogenic pollution sources or close to enhanced natural biogenic volatile organic compounds emission sources with a rate ranging regionally from 0.2 to 2 ppbv C −1 , implying a regional surface ozone penalty due to global warming. Overall, the future climate change enhances the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions and thus the magnitude of this effect depends on the regional emission changes considered in this study within the SSP3_7.0 scenario. The comparison of the climate change impact effect on surface ozone versus the combined effect of climate and emission changes indicates the dominant role of precursor emission changes in projecting surface ozone concentrations under future climate change scenarios.

Zanis, Prodromos↗

Wildfire exacerbates high-latitude soil carbon losses from climate warming

Abstract Arctic and boreal permafrost soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition has been slower than carbon inputs from plant growth since the last glaciation. Anthropogenic climate warming has threatened this historical trend by accelerating SOC decomposition and altering wildfire regimes. We accurately modeled observed plant biomass and carbon emissions from wildfires in Alaskan ecosystems under current climate conditions. In projections to 2300 under the RCP8.5 climate scenario, we found that warming and increased atmospheric CO 2 will result in plant biomass gains and higher litterfall. However, increased carbon losses from (a) wildfire combustion and (b) rapid SOC decomposition driven by increased deciduous litter production, root exudation, and active layer depth will lead to about 4.4 PgC of soil carbon losses from Alaska by 2300 and most (88%) of these loses will be from the top 1 m of soil. These SOC losses offset plant carbon gains, causing the ecosystem to transition to a net carbon source after 2200. Simulations excluding wildfire increases yielded about a factor of four lower SOC losses by 2300. Our results show that projected wildfire and its direct and indirect effects on plant and soil carbon may accelerate high-latitude soil carbon losses, resulting in a positive feedback to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Canopy responses of Swedish primary and secondary forests to the 2018 drought

Boreal forest ecosystems are predicted to experience more frequent summer droughts due to climate change, posing a threat to future forest health and carbon sequestration. Forestry is a regionally dominant land use where the managed secondary forests are typically even-aged forests with low structural and tree species diversity. It is not well known if managed secondary forests and unmanaged primary forests respond to drought differently in part because the location of primary, unmanaged, forests has remained largely unknown. Here we employed a unique map detailing over 300 primary forests in Sweden. We studied impacts of the 2018 nationwide drought by extracting and analyzing a high-resolution remote sensing vegetation index over the primary forests and over buffer zones around the primary forests representing secondary forests. We controlled for topographical variations linked to soil moisture, which was a strong determinant of drought responses, and analyzed Landsat-derived EVI2 anomalies during the drought year from a multiyear non-drought baseline. We found that primary forests were less affected by the drought compared to secondary forests. Our results indicate that forestry may exacerbate the impact of drought in a future climate with more frequent and extreme hydroclimatic events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigating permafrost carbon dynamics in Alaska with artificial intelligence

Abstract Positive feedbacks between permafrost degradation and the release of soil carbon into the atmosphere impact land–atmosphere interactions, disrupt the global carbon cycle, and accelerate climate change. The widespread distribution of thawing permafrost is causing a cascade of geophysical and biochemical disturbances with global impacts. Currently, few earth system models account for permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) mechanisms. This research study integrates artificial intelligence (AI) tools and information derived from field-scale surveys across the tundra and boreal landscapes in Alaska. We identify and interpret the permafrost carbon cycling links and feedback sensitivities with GeoCryoAI, a hybridized multimodal deep learning (DL) architecture of stacked convolutionally layered, memory-encoded recurrent neural networks (NN). This framework integratesin-situmeasurements and flux tower observations for teacher forcing and model training. Preliminary experiments to quantify, validate, and forecast permafrost degradation and carbon efflux across Alaska demonstrate the fidelity of this data-driven architecture. More specifically, GeoCryoAI logs the ecological memory and effectively learns covariate dynamics while demonstrating an aptitude to simulate and forecast PCF dynamics—active layer thickness (ALT), carbon dioxide flux (CO 2 ), and methane flux (CH 4 )—with high precision and minimal loss (i.e. ALT RMSE : 1.327 cm [1969–2022]; CO 2 RMSE : 0.697µmolCO 2 m −2 s −1 [2003–2021]; CH 4 RMSE : 0.715 nmolCH 4 m −2 s −1 [2011–2022]). ALT variability is a sensitive harbinger of change, a unique signal characterizing the PCF, and our model is the first characterization of these dynamics across space and time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Critical needs to close monitoring gaps in pan-tropical wetland CH 4 emissions

Global wetlands are the largest and most uncertain natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ). The FLUXNET-CH 4 synthesis initiative has established a global network of flux tower infrastructure, offering valuable data products and fostering a dedicated community for the measurement and analysis of methane flux data. Existing studies using the FLUXNET-CH 4 Community Product v1.0 have provided invaluable insights into the drivers of ecosystem-to-regional spatial patterns and daily-to-decadal temporal dynamics in temperate, boreal, and Arctic climate regions. However, as the wetland CH 4 monitoring network grows, there is a critical knowledge gap about where new monitoring infrastructure ought to be located to improve understanding of the global wetland CH 4 budget. Here we address this gap with a spatial representativeness analysis at existing and hypothetical observation sites, using 16 process-based wetland biogeochemistry models and machine learning. We find that, in addition to eddy covariance monitoring sites, existing chamber sites are important complements, especially over high latitudes and the tropics. Furthermore, expanding the current monitoring network for wetland CH 4 emissions should prioritize, first, tropical and second, sub-tropical semi-arid wetland regions. Considering those new hypothetical wetland sites from tropical and semi-arid climate zones could significantly improve global estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions and reduce bias by 79% (from 76 to 16 TgCH 4 y -1 ), compared with using solely existing monitoring networks. Our study thus demonstrates an approach for long-term strategic expansion of flux observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydrology controls thermokarst and alters carbon cycling and methane emissions in peatlands near the southern limit of permafrost

Permafrost peatlands store vast amounts of frozen carbon across northern landscapes. When ground ice melts, surface subsidence produces thermokarst landforms that expand wetlands at the edges of permafrost plateaus. Thermokarst represents an accelerating climate feedback, but uncertainties remain about how ground ice, hydrology, and vegetation interact to shape landscape change and carbon fluxes. We extended the process-based model ecosys to simulate thermokarst dynamics in laterally coupled 2D transects at a well-characterized boreal peatland site in Canada’s Northwest Territories. After benchmarking against site observations, we varied ground ice content and hydrologic boundary conditions across ranges typical near the southern permafrost limit. Simulations revealed distinct degradation regimes governed by the elevation difference between the frost table and the external water table. Rates of lateral retreat, the thaw-driven encroachment of wetlands into adjacent plateaus, ranged from 0 to >2 m yr −1 under identical weather forcing, consistent with observations and highlighting the strong role of WT and ground ice. Simulated vegetation dynamics indicate that black spruce mortality cannot be explained by anoxia alone, pointing to additional stressors such as root damage, pathogens, or physical destabilization. Despite large hydrologic shifts, net ecosystem CO 2 exchange remained a slight sink after collapse, while methane (CH 4 ) emissions rose by one to two orders of magnitude. As a result, lateral retreat substantially increases the greenhouse warming potential of permafrost peatlands (1.7 million km 2 in area), with simulated emissions of 0.1–10 Mt CO 2 -eq decade −1 depending on hydrology and retreat rates. These results underscore the need to account for both ground ice and hydrologic dynamics when assessing thermokarst-driven climate feedbacks.

carbon cycling↗

Metagenomic investigation of African dust events in the Caribbean

ABSTRACT African dust from the Sahara and Sahel regions of Northern Africa is blown intercontinental distances and is the highest portion of atmospheric dust generated each year. During the Northern Hemisphere summer months (boreal summer), these dust events travel into the Caribbean and southern United States. While viability assays, microscopy and bacterial amplicon analyses have shown that dust-associated microbes may be diverse, the specific microbial taxa that are transported intercontinental distances with these dust events remain poorly characterized. To provide new insights into these issues, five metagenomes of Saharan dust events occurring in the Caribbean, collected in the summer months of 2002 and 2008, were analyzed. The data revealed that similar microbial composition existed between three out of the five of the distinct dust events and that fungi were a prominent feature of the metagenomes compared to other environmental samples. These results have implications for better understanding of microbial transport through the atmosphere and may implicate that the dust-associated microbial load transiting the Atlantic with Saharan dust is similar from year to year.

Waters, Samantha Marie↗

Chromosome-scale Genome Assembly of the Most Abundant Ectomycorrhizal Fungus Cenococcum Geophilum Reveals Massive TE Expansion and RIP Defense Mechanism

Transposable elements (TEs) play crucial roles in genome evolution and ecological adaptation in fungi, yet their dynamics in ectomycorrhizal species remain poorly understood. Cenococcum geophilum, the most widespread ectomycorrhizal fungus in boreal and temperate forests with its large, repeat-rich genome, represents an ideal system to investigate TE-mediated adaptation to the physical environment and symbiotic lifestyle. However, previous studies have been limited by fragmented genome assemblies that prevented the resolution of repeat-rich regions. We assembled a telomere-to-telomere reference genome of C. geophilum strain 1.58 using PacBio HiFi and Hi-C datasets, resulting in a 178.54 Mbp genome with seven contiguous chromosomes. We identified 14,145 genes and over 78% of the genome consists of transposable elements (TEs). Of these, 94% are affected by repeat-induced point mutations (RIP), a genome defense mechanism that acts during the sexual reproduction phase, indicating cryptic or ancient sexual reproduction in this putatively asexual fungus. Long terminal repeat retrotransposons, LINEs, and DNA transposons dominate, with three TE families (Ty3, Ty1, and Tad1) contributing over 60% of the genome size, indicating recent transposition bursts. Screening of 15 additional C. geophilum strains revealed recent and lineage-specific TE expansions, implying that several TEs escaped the RIP machinery and retained potential activity. Supporting TE activity in the context of symbiosis, we found 56 TEs differentially transcribed between ectomycorrhizal and free-living mycelium tissues. An even higher number (n = 66) of TEs were differentially expressed between stress resistance morphology (i.e. sclerotia) and free-living mycelium. This supports that TEs are differentially regulated as a response to symbiotic and stress-related conditions. Our results demonstrate that the C. geophilum genome expansion was driven by a few lineage-specific TE families in recent history, with high RIP activity attesting to sexual reproduction. We also provide insights how TEs could respond to lifestyle transitions and traits associated with desiccation resistance.

Cenococcum geophilum↗

Tropical Indian Ocean drives Hadley circulation change in a warming climate

ABSTRACT The weakening and poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation (HC) are considered robust responses of atmospheric meridional circulation to anthropogenic warming. Climate impacts arising from these changes enhance drought conditions and reduce food production in the affected regions. Therefore, understanding the mechanisms of HC changes is critical to anticipating the resultant climate risks. First, we demonstrate that robust future HC changes in boreal winter, and the uncertainty in their future projections, are both largely related to sea surface temperature (SST) warming. Next, we investigate the impact of anthropogenic regional ocean warming on the future HC. Accordingly, we conduct a large ensemble of individual ocean basin perturbation experiments at 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C warming thresholds (as in the Paris Agreement). These experiments highlight (i) the leading role of tropical Indian Ocean warming in HC changes and (ii) inter-model differences in tropical Pacific warming as a source of uncertainty in HC projections.

Sun, Yong (ORCID:0000000210876060)↗

CO2 refixation is higher in leaves of woody species with high mesophyll and stomatal resistances to CO2 diffusion

Abstract The percentage of respiratory and photorespiratory CO2 refixed in leaves (Pr) represents part of the CO2 used in photosynthesis. The importance of Pr as well as differences between species and functional types are still not well investigated. In this study, we examine how Pr differs between six temperate and boreal woody species: Betula pendula, Quercus robur, Larix decidua, Pinus sylvestris, Picea abies and Vaccinium vitis-idaea. The study covers early and late successional species, deciduous broadleaves, deciduous conifers, evergreen conifers and evergreen broadleaves. We investigated whether some species or functional types had higher refixation percentages than others, whether leaf traits could predict higher Pr and whether these traits and their impact on Pr changed during growing seasons. Photosynthesis CO2 response (A/Ci)-curves, measured early, mid and late season, were used to estimate and compare Pr, mesophyll resistance (rm) and stomatal resistance (rs) to CO2 diffusion. Additionally, light images and transmission electron microscope images were used to approximate the fraction of intercellular airspace and cell wall thickness. We found that evergreens, especially late successional species, refixed a significantly higher amount of CO2 than the other species throughout the entire growing season. In addition, rm, rs and leaf mass per area, traits that typically are higher in evergreen species, were also significantly, positively correlated with Pr. We suggest that this is due to higher rm decreasing diffusion of (photo) respiratory CO2 out of the leaf. Cell wall thickness had a positive effect on Pr and rm, while the fraction of intercellular airspace had no effect. Both were significantly different between evergreen conifers and other types. Our findings suggest that species with a higher rm use a greater fraction of mitochondria-derived CO2, especially when stomatal conductance is low. This should be taken into account when modeling the overall CO2 fertilization effect for terrestrial ecosystems dominated by high rm species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Global distribution, formation and fate of mineral‐associated soil organic matter under a changing climate: A trait‐based perspective

Abstract Soil organic matter (SOM) is the largest actively cycling reservoir of terrestrial carbon (C), and the majority of SOM in Earth's mineral soils (~65%) is mineral‐associated organic matter (MAOM). Thus, the formation and fate of MAOM can exert substantial influence on the global C cycle. To predict future changes to Earth's climate, it is critical to mechanistically understand the processes by which MAOM is formed and decomposed, and to accurately represent this process‐based understanding in biogeochemical and Earth system models. In this review, we use a trait‐based framework to synthesize the interacting roles of plants, soil micro‐organisms, and the mineral matrix in regulating MAOM formation and decomposition. Our proposed framework differentiates between plant and microbial traits that influence total OM inputs to the soil (‘feedstock traits’) versus traits that influence the proportion of OM inputs that are ultimately incorporated into MAOM (‘MAOM formation traits’). We discuss how these feedstock and MAOM formation traits may be altered by warming, altered precipitation and elevated carbon dioxide. At a planetary scale, these feedstock and MAOM formation traits help shape the distribution of MAOM across Earth's biomes, and modulate biome‐specific responses of MAOM to climate change. We leverage a global synthesis of MAOM measurements to provide estimates of the total amount of MAOM‐C globally (~840–1540 Pg C; 34%–51% of total terrestrial organic C), and its distribution across Earth's biomes. We show that MAOM‐C concentration is highest in temperate forests and grasslands, and lowest in shrublands and savannas. Grasslands and croplands have the highest proportion of soil organic carbon (SOC) in the MAOM fraction (i.e. the MAOM‐C:SOC ratio), while boreal forests and tundra have the lowest MAOM‐C:SOC ratio. Drawing on our trait framework, we then review experimental data and posit the effects of climate change on MAOM pools in different biomes. We conclude by discussing how MAOM is integrated into soil C models, and how feedstock and MAOM formation traits may be included in these models. We also summarize the projected fate of MAOM under climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5) and discuss key model uncertainties. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Intra‐species genetic variability drives carbon metabolism and symbiotic host interactions in the ectomycorrhizal fungus Pisolithus microcarpus

Summary Ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi are integral to boreal and temperate forest ecosystem functioning and nutrient cycling. ECM fungi, however, originate from diverse saprotrophic lineages and the impacts of genetic variation across species, and especially within a given ECM species, on function and interactions with the environment is not well understood. Here, we explore the extent of intra‐species variation between four isolates of the ECM fungus Pisolithus microcarpus , in terms of gene regulation, carbon metabolism and growth, and interactions with a host, Eucalyptus grandis . We demonstrate that, while a core response to the host is maintained by all of the isolates tested, they have distinct patterns of gene expression and carbon metabolism, resulting in the differential expression of isolate‐specific response pathways in the host plant. Together, these results highlight the importance of using a wider range of individuals within a species to understand the broader ecological roles of ECM fungi and their host interactions.

Plett, Krista L.↗