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At least 253 records · Page 14

Multimodel Ensemble Methods for Prediction of Wake-Vortex Transport and Decay Originating NASA

Several multimodel ensemble methods are selected and further developed to improve the deterministic and probabilistic prediction skills of individual wake-vortex transport and decay models. The different multimodel ensemble methods are introduced, and their suitability for wake applications is demonstrated. The selected methods include direct ensemble averaging, Bayesian model averaging, and Monte Carlo simulation. The different methodologies are evaluated employing data from wake-vortex field measurement campaigns conducted in the United States and Germany.

Korner, Stephan↗

Forecasts of time averages with a numerical weather prediction model

Forecasts of time averages of 1-10 days in duration by an operational numerical weather prediction model are documented for the global 500 mb height field in spectral space. Error growth in very idealized models is described in order to anticipate various features of these forecasts and in order to anticipate what the results might be if forecasts longer than 10 days were carried out by present day numerical weather prediction models. The data set for this study is described, and the equilibrium spectra and error spectra are documented; then, the total error is documented. It is shown how forecasts can immediately be improved by removing the systematic error, by using statistical filters, and by ignoring forecasts beyond about a week. Temporal variations in the error field are also documented.

Roads, J. O.↗

Excited states in warm and hot dense matter

Accurate modeling of warm and hot dense matter is challenging in part due to the multitude of excited states that must be considered. Here, we present a variational framework that models these excited states. In this framework an excited state is defined by a set of effective one-electron occupation factors, and the corresponding energy is defined by the effective one-body energy with an exchange and correlation term. Here, the variational framework is applied to an atom-in-plasma model (a generalization of the so-called average atom model). Comparisons with a density functional theory based average atom model generally reveal good agreement in the calculated pressure, but our model also gives access to the excitation energies and charge state distributions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Spatial and time domain spectral energetics in the GLAS circulation model

Zonally averaged eddy kinetic energies and time domain energetics spectra were calculated for the GLAS general circulation model. The spatial results show significant improvements in the magnitude and distribution of the eddy kinetic energy. The spectral results provide a technique for tracing when and where the model predictions diverge from observations.

Tenenbaum, J.↗

Simulation and Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes modeling of a three-component Rayleigh-Taylor mixing problem with thermonuclear burn

Rayleigh-Taylor mixing in the presence of a third component with intermediate density is investigated through three-dimensional large-eddy simulation (LES) with a high-order compact finite-difference code. Two configurations are considered: (1) a symmetric configuration in which the Atwood number between the heavy and intermediate components matches the Atwood number between the intermediate and light components and (2) an asymmetric configuration in which the Atwood number between the heavy and intermediate components is an order of magnitude greater than the Atwood number between the intermediate and light components. Mass fraction covariances are extracted, and proposed Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) closures for density-specific-volume and density-mass-fraction covariances are evaluated in an a priori fashion. Additionally, a multicomponent extension of the k - Φ - L - a - V RANS model [Morgan, Phys. Rev. E 104, 015107 (2021)] is presented which includes model equations for the upper-triangular elements of the mass fraction covariance matrix. This model, referred to as the k - Φ - L - a - C model, is compared against results from LES and against other RANS models. Profiles of average mass fraction, mass-fraction covariance, and density-specific-volume covariance obtained with the k - Φ - L - a - C model are found to agree well with LES data. Finally, the impact of three-component turbulent mixing on average reaction rate is investigated in both premixed and nonpremixed cases by heating the mixing layer and allowing it to undergo thermonuclear (TN) burn. A closure model for average reaction rate is proposed for use with the k - Φ - L - a - C model, and when this model is applied, improved agreement is obtained between LES and RANS in total TN neutron production.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Assimilation of satellite color observations in a coupled ocean GCM-ecosystem model

Monthly average coastal zone color scanner (CZCS) estimates of chlorophyll concentration were assimilated into an ocean global circulation model(GCM) containing a simple model of the pelagic ecosystem. The assimilation was performed in the simplest possible manner, to allow the assessment of whether there were major problems with the ecosystem model or with the assimilation procedure. The current ecosystem model performed well in some regions, but failed in others to assimilate chlorophyll estimates without disrupting important ecosystem properties. This experiment gave insight into those properties of the ecosystem model that must be changed to allow data assimilation to be generally successful, while raising other important issues about the assimilation procedure.

Sarmiento, Jorge L.↗

Self-similar Reynolds-averaged mechanical–scalar turbulence models for Rayleigh–Taylor mixing induced by power-law accelerations in the small Atwood number limit

Analytical self-similar solutions to two-, three-, and four-equation Reynolds-averaged mechanical–scalar turbulence models describing turbulent Rayleigh–Taylor mixing driven by a temporal power-law acceleration are derived in the small Atwood number (Boussinesq) limit. The solutions generalize those previously derived for constant acceleration Rayleigh–Taylor mixing for models based on the turbulent kinetic energy K and its dissipation rate ε, together with the scalar variance S and its dissipation rate χ [O. Schilling, “Self-similar Reynolds-averaged mechanical–scalar turbulence models for Rayleigh–Taylor, Richtmyer–Meshkov, and Kelvin–Helmholtz instability-induced mixing in the small Atwood number limit,” Phys. Fluids 33, 085129 (2021)]. The turbulent fields are expressed in terms of the model coefficients and power-law exponent, with their temporal power-law scalings obtained by requiring that the self-similar equations are explicitly time-independent. Mixing layer growth parameters and other physical observables are obtained explicitly as functions of the model coefficients and parameterized by the exponent of the power-law acceleration. Values for physical observables in the constant acceleration case are used to calibrate the two-, three-, and four-equation models, such that the self-similar solutions are consistent with experimental and numerical simulation data corresponding to a canonical (i.e., constant acceleration) Rayleigh–Taylor turbulent flow. The calibrated four-equation model is then used to numerically reconstruct the mean and turbulent fields, and turbulent equation budgets across the mixing layer for several values of the power-law exponent. Finally, the reference solutions derived here can be used to understand the model predictions for strongly accelerated or decelerated Rayleigh–Taylor mixing in the large Reynolds number limit.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Anderson critical metal phase in trivial states protected by average magnetic crystalline symmetry

Transitions between distinct obstructed atomic insulators (OAIs) protected by crystalline symmetries, where electrons form molecular orbitals centering away from the atom positions, must go through an intermediate metallic phase. In this work, we find that the intermediate metals will become a scale-invariant critical metal phase (CMP) under certain types of quenched disorder that respect the magnetic crystalline symmetries on average. We explicitly construct models respecting average C 2z T, m, and C 4z T and show their scale-invariance under chemical potential disorder by the finite-size scaling method. Conventional theories, such as weak anti-localization and topological phase transition, cannot explain the underlying mechanism. A quantitative mapping between lattice and network models shows that the CMP can be understood through a semi-classical percolation problem. Ultimately, we systematically classify all the OAI transitions protected by (magnetic) groups Pm, P2', P4', and P6' with and without spin-orbit coupling, most of which can support CMP.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Integration and validation of some modules for modelling of high-speed chemically reactive flows in two-phase gas-droplet mixtures

Three modules are integrated into the built-in OpenFOAM rhoCentralFoam solver towards accurate and efficient modelling of high-speed chemically reactive flows in two-phase gas-droplet mixtures within the OpenFOAM 10.0 framework. The first module is the mixture-averaged diffusion model. The second module is the built-in OpenFOAM Lagrangian solver coupled with optimised droplet drag coefficient and convective heat transfer coefficient sub-models. The last module is a sparse stiff chemistry solver based on dynamic adaptive hybrid integration (AHI-S). The optimised droplet sub-models are first verified in correct implementation for subsequent simulations in this work. Further, they show good accuracy against experimental and analytical data in the modelling of ammonia droplet acceleration and cooling in the flowing and/or low-temperature air. The accuracy and efficiency gains related to the mixture-averaged diffusion model and the AHI-S chemistry solver are examined by simulating 1-D detonation propagation in ammonia droplet-free/laden ammoniaoxygen mixtures. Numerical results of detonation propagation speed, gaseous temperature, density, and species distributions around the induction zone show good agreement with experimental data and analytical solutions. Compared to the built-in OpenFOAM diffusion model, the mixture-averaged diffusion model provides different numerical predictions of pulsating instabilities in detonation propagation. It shows better accuracy in depicting the detonation structure within the droplet-free section attributed to improved multi-component diffusion modelling. Compared to the built-in OpenFOAM solver EulerImplicit (backward Euler), the AHI-S chemistry solver reduces the computational cost by around 50%. It achieves satisfactory accuracy in calculating detonation propagation speed within the droplet-free section with the optimal efficiency when the safety factor, β, equals 0.5.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The “good,” the “bad,” and the “hidden” in neutron scattering and molecular dynamics of ionic aqueous solutions

We characterize a concentrated 7.3 m CaCl 2 solution, combining neutron diffraction with chloride isotopic substitution (Cl-NDIS) in null water and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. We elucidate the solution structure, thermodynamic properties, and extent of ion pairing previously suggested as concentration-dependent and often not observed at lower concentrations. Our Cl-NDIS measurements designate the solvent-shared ion pairing as dominant and the contact ion pairing (CIP) as insignificant even under conditions close to the solubility limit. The MD models parameterized against neutron diffraction with calcium isotopic substitution (Ca-NDIS) overestimate CIP despite successfully reproducing most of the Cl-NDIS signal. This drawback originates from the fact that Ca 2+ –Cl - interactions were primarily “hidden” in the Ca-NDIS signal due to overlapping with Ca 2+ –O w and Ca 2+ –H w contributions to the total scattering. Contrary, MD models with moderate CIP and possessing generally good performance at high concentrations fail to reproduce the NDIS measurements accurately. Therefore, the electronic polarization, introduced in most of the recent MD models via scaling ionic charges, resolves some but not all parameterization drawbacks. We conclude that despite improving the quality of MD models “on average,” the question “which model is the best” has not been answered but replaced by the question “which model is better for a given research.” An overall “good” model can still be inappropriate or, in some instances, “bad” and, unfortunately, produce erroneous results. Additionally, the accurate interpretation of several NDIS datasets, complemented by MD simulations, can prevent such mistakes and help identify the strengths, weaknesses, and convenient applications for corresponding computational models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Influence of Mesh Density on the Impact Response of a Shuttle Leading-Edge Panel Finite Element Simulation

A study was performed to examine the influence of varying mesh density on an LS-DYNA simulation of a rectangular-shaped foam projectile impacting the space shuttle leading edge Panel 6. The shuttle leading-edge panels are fabricated of reinforced carbon-carbon (RCC) material. During the study, nine cases were executed with all possible combinations of coarse, baseline, and fine meshes of the foam and panel. For each simulation, the same material properties and impact conditions were specified and only the mesh density was varied. In the baseline model, the shell elements representing the RCC panel are approximately 0.2-in. on edge, whereas the foam elements are about 0.5-in. on edge. The element nominal edge-length for the baseline panel was halved to create a fine panel (0.1-in. edge length) mesh and doubled to create a coarse panel (0.4-in. edge length) mesh. In addition, the element nominal edge-length of the baseline foam projectile was halved (0.25-in. edge length) to create a fine foam mesh and doubled (1.0- in. edge length) to create a coarse foam mesh. The initial impact velocity of the foam was 775 ft/s. The simulations were executed in LS-DYNA version 960 for 6 ms of simulation time. Contour plots of resultant panel displacement and effective stress in the foam were compared at five discrete time intervals. Also, time-history responses of internal and kinetic energy of the panel, kinetic and hourglass energy of the foam, and resultant contact force were plotted to determine the influence of mesh density. As a final comparison, the model with a fine panel and fine foam mesh was executed with slightly different material properties for the RCC. For this model, the average degraded properties of the RCC were replaced with the maximum degraded properties. Similar comparisons of panel and foam responses were made for the average and maximum degraded models.

Jackson, Karen E.↗

Instantaneous and time-averaged dispersion and measurement models for estimation theory applications with elevated point source plumes

Estimation theory, which originated in guidance and control research, is applied to the analysis of air quality measurements and atmospheric dispersion models to provide reliable area-wide air quality estimates. A method for low dimensional modeling (in terms of the estimation state vector) of the instantaneous and time-average pollutant distributions is discussed. In particular, the fluctuating plume model of Gifford (1959) is extended to provide an expression for the instantaneous concentration due to an elevated point source. Individual models are also developed for all parameters in the instantaneous and the time-average plume equations, including the stochastic properties of the instantaneous fluctuating plume.

Diamante, J. M.↗

Latitudinal variation of tropospheric ozone in a photochemical model

A zonally, vertically, and annually averaged numerical model of trace gases in the troposphere is used to examine the variation of ozone as a function of latitude. Processes included in the ozone budget are a source due to downward transport of ozone from the stratosphere, deposition at earth's surface, north-south diffusive transport, and photochemical reactions. Sensitivity of calculated ozone concentrations to the latitude variation and magnitude of the stratospheric source is presented. The model indicates a net photochemical source of ozone in the Northern Hemisphere and a net chemical sink in the tropical latitudes. Calculated variation of ozone concentration with latitude is in qualitative agreement with observations.

Hameed, S.↗

A new approach to turbulence modeling

A new approach to Reynolds averaged turbulence modeling is proposed which has a computational cost comparable to two equation models but a predictive capability approaching that of Reynolds stress transport models. This approach isolates the crucial information contained within the Reynolds stress tensor, and solves transport equations only for a set of 'reduced' variables. In this work, Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) data is used to analyze the nature of these newly proposed turbulence quantities and the source terms which appear in their respective transport equations. The physical relevance of these quantities is discussed and some initial modeling results for turbulent channel flow are presented.

Perot, B.↗

Self-similar Reynolds-averaged mechanical–scalar turbulence models for Rayleigh–Taylor, Richtmyer–Meshkov, and Kelvin–Helmholtz instability-induced mixing in the small Atwood number limit

Analytical self-similar solutions to two-, three-, and four-equation Reynolds-averaged mechanical–scalar turbulence models describing incompressible turbulent Rayleigh–Taylor, Richtmyer–Meshkov, and Kelvin–Helmholtz instability-induced mixing in planar geometry are derived in the small Atwood number (Boussinesq) limit. The models are based on the turbulent kinetic energy K and its dissipation rate ε, together with the scalar (heavy-fluid mass fraction) variance S and its dissipation rate Χ modeled either differentially or algebraically. The models allow for a simultaneous description of mechanical and scalar mixing, i.e., mixing layer growth and molecular mixing, respectively. Mixing layer growth parameters and other physical observables relevant to each instability are obtained explicitly as functions of the model coefficients. The turbulent fields are also expressed in terms of the model coefficients, with their temporal power-law scalings obtained by requiring that the self-similar equations are explicitly time-independent. The model calibration methodology is described and discussed. Expressions for a subset of the various physical observables are used to calibrate each of the two-, three-, and four-equation models, such that the self-similar solutions are consistent with experimental and numerical simulation data corresponding to these values of the observables and to specific canonical Rayleigh–Taylor, Richtmyer–Meshkov, and Kelvin–Helmholtz turbulent flows. A calibrated four-equation model is then used to reconstruct the mean and turbulent fields, and late-time turbulent equation budgets for each instability-induced flow across the mixing layer. The reference solutions derived here can provide systematic calibrations and better understanding of mechanical–scalar turbulence models and their predictions for instability-induced turbulent mixing in the very large Reynolds number limit.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Development of a two-dimensional zonally averaged statistical-dynamical model. II - The role of eddy momentum fluxes in the general circulation and their parameterization

The role of eddy momentum fluxes in the general circulation was investigated using a two-dimensional zonally averaged statistical-dynamical model described by Yao and Stone (1987), which is almost two orders of magnitude faster than the three-dimensional climate model of Hansen et al. (1983). Results show that the vertical structure of the meridional eddy flux has relatively little impact on the general circulation, presumably because the vertical structure is strongly constrained by the thermal wind relation and surface friction. On the other hand, it was found that, in order to simulate accurately the general circulation and its response to climate changes, parameterization of the vertically integrated meridional eddy flux of angular momentum is necessary. A new parameterization of this eddy momentum transport was carried out, which is intended to represent the transport due to large-scale transient eddies arising from baroclinic instability.

Stone, Peter H.↗

Numerical experiments with a stochastic zonal climate model

A zonally averaged energy balance climate model is developed to generate zonal temperature variability through fluctuating meridional energy transports. Stochastic transport fluctuations are included in the model by multiplying the eddy diffusion coefficients by Gaussian random deviates. For a variability of eddy coefficients of 50 percent, the model is found to generate an interannual temperature variability of 0.03 K for the global temperature, and 0.04 and 0.05 K for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively. It is shown that the temperature variability level generated is linearly related to the transport variability level introduced. An increase in the level of model-generated temperature variability and a change in the shape of variance spectra of temperature anomaly time series are obtained by switching from the multiplicative noise model to an additive noise model. The results of these model studies are compared with a time series of central England temperatures as well as GCM generated climate variability.

Schneider, S. H.↗

Development of a two-dimensional zonally averaged statistical-dynamical model. I - The parameterization of moist convection and its role in the general circulation

The moist convection parameterization used in the GISS 3-D GCM is adapted for use in a two-dimensional (2-D) zonally averaged statistical-dynamical model. Experiments with different versions of the parameterization show that its impact on the general circulation in the 2-D model does not parallel its impact in the 3-D model unless the effect of zonal variations is parameterized in the moist convection calculations. A parameterization of the variations in moist static energy is introduced in which the temperature variations are calculated from baroclinic stability theory, and the relative humidity is assumed to be constant. Inclusion of the zonal variations of moist static energy in the 2-D moist convection parameterization allows just a fraction of a latitude circle to be unstable and enhances the amount of deep convection. This leads to a 2-D simulation of the general circulation very similar to that in the 3-D model. The experiments show that the general circulation is sensitive to the parameterized amount of deep convection in the subsident branch of the Hadley cell. The more there is, the weaker are the Hadley cell circulations and the westerly jets. The experiments also confirm the effects of momentum mixing associated with moist convection found by earlier investigators and, in addition, show that the momentum mixing weakens the Ferrel cell. An experiment in which the moist convection was removed while the hydrological cycle was retained and the eddy forcing was held fixed shows that moist convection by itself stabilizes the tropics, reduces the Hadley circulation, and reduces the maximum speeds in the westerly jets.

Yao, Mao-Sung↗