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At least 253 records · Page 14

Gaussian Process Regression for Aggregate Baseline Load Forecasting

Demand response (DR) is one of the most effective ways to maintain the reliability and improve the flexibility of power systems. Accurate forecasts of baseline loads are essential for DR programs. In the era of big data, machine learning-based approaches present a unique opportunity for baseline load forecasting. Thus, this paper presents a machine learning-based approach using a relatively less explored algorithm, Gaussian process regression (GPR), to forecast aggregate baseline loads. As such, a dataset was generated using a set of EnergyPlus simulations. Using the generated dataset, a GPR-based forecasting model was developed. In addition, support vector regression (SVR)-, artificial neural network (ANN)-, and averaging-based models were developed as baseline models for comparison. These models were compared in terms of accuracy, simplicity, and integrity. The prediction performance of the models showed that the GPR-based model is more accurate and reliable than the others. Such high performance shows the potential of the GPR in baseline load forecasting. GPR, therefore, can be used for DR applications.

Amasyali, Kadir↗

Wildfire Smoke Adjustment Factors for Low-Cost and Professional PM 2.5 Monitors with Optical Sensors

Air quality monitors using low-cost optical PM 2.5 sensors can track the dispersion of wildfire smoke; but quantitative hazard assessment requires a smoke-specific adjustment factor (AF). This study determined AFs for three professional-grade devices and four monitors with low-cost sensors based on measurements inside a well-ventilated lab impacted by the 2018 Camp Fire in California (USA). Using the Thermo TEOM-FDMS as reference, AFs of professional monitors were 0.85 for Grimm mini wide-range aerosol spectrometer, 0.25 for TSI DustTrak, and 0.53 for Thermo pDR1500; AFs for low-cost monitors were 0.59 for AirVisual Pro, 0.48 for PurpleAir Indoor, 0.46 for Air Quality Egg, and 0.60 for eLichens Indoor Air Quality Pro Station. We also compared public data from 53 PurpleAir PA-II monitors to 12 nearby regulatory monitoring stations impacted by Camp Fire smoke and devices near stations impacted by the Carr and Mendocino Complex Fires in California and the Pole Creek Fire in Utah. Camp Fire AFs varied by day and location, with median (interquartile) of 0.48 (0.44–0.53). Adjusted PA-II 4-h average data were generally within ±20% of PM 2.5 reported by the monitoring stations. Adjustment improved the accuracy of Air Quality Index (AQI) hazard level reporting, e.g., from 14% to 84% correct in Sacramento during the Camp Fire.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Comparison of Sub-Ppm Instrument Response Suggests Higher Detection Limits Could Be Used to Quantify Methane Emissions from Oil and Gas Infrastructure

Quantifying and controlling fugitive methane emissions from oil and gas facilities remains essential for addressing climate goals, but the costs associated with monitoring millions of production sites remain prohibitively expensive. Current thinking, supported by measurement and simple dispersion modelling, assumes single-digit parts-per-million instrumentation is required. To investigate instrument response, the inlets of three trace-methane (sub-ppm) analyzers were collocated on a facility designed to release gas of known composition at known flow rates between 0.4 and 5.2 kg CH 4 h –1 from simulated oil and gas infrastructure. Methane mixing ratios were measured by each instrument at 1 Hertz resolution over nine hours. While mixing ratios reported by a cavity ring-down spectrometer (CRDS)-based instrument were on average 10.0 ppm (range 1.8 to 83 ppm), a mid-infrared laser absorption spectroscopy (MIRA)-based instrument reported short-lived mixing ratios far larger than expected (range 1.8 to 779 ppm) with a similar nine-hour average to the CRDS (10.1 ppm). We suggest the peaks detected by the MIRA are likely caused by a micrometeorological phenomenon, where vortex shedding has resulted in heterogeneous methane plumes which only the MIRA can observe. Further analysis suggests an instrument like the MIRA (an optical-cavity-based instrument with cavity size ≤10 cm3 measuring at ≥2 Hz with air flow rates in the order of ≤0.3 slpm at distances of ≤20 m from the source) but with a higher detection limit (25 ppm) could detect enough of the high-concentration events to generate representative 20 min-average methane mixing ratios. Even though development of a lower-cost, high-precision, high-accuracy instrument with a 25 ppm detection threshold remains a significant problem, this has implications for the use of instrumentation with higher detection thresholds, resulting in the reduction in cost to measure methane emissions and providing a mechanism for the widespread deployment of effective leak detection and repair programs for all oil and gas infrastructure.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Large eddy simulation of atmospheric boundary layer flow over complex terrain in comparison with RANS simulation and on-site measurements under neutral stability condition

Large eddy simulation (LES) of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) flow over complex terrain is presented with a validation using meteorological tower (met-tower) data through an improved neutral stability sampling approach. The proposed stability sampling procedure includes a condition based on the most-likely occurrence time-periods of the neutral ABL and reduces the variabilities of the conditional wind statistics calculated at the met-towers in comparison to our previous work. The ABL flow simulations are carried out over a potential wind site with a prominent hill based using the OpenFOAM-based simulator for on/off-shore wind farm applications by applying the Lagrangian-averaged scale-invariant dynamic sub-grid scale turbulence model. A low-dissipative scale-selective discretization scheme for the non-linear convection term in the LES governing equation is adopted implicitly to ensure both the second-order accuracy and bounded solution. The LES inflow is generated through a precursor method with a “tiling” approach based on the flow driving parameters obtained from a corresponding Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) simulation. Overall, the averaged wind velocity profiles predicted by the LES approach at all met-tower locations show a similar tendency as the RANS results, which are also in reasonable agreement with the met-tower data. An obvious difference in wind speed standard deviation profiles is seen between LES and RANS, especially at regions downstream of the hill edge, where the LES shows under-predicted results at the highest measurement levels in comparison to the tower data. The computational costs of the LES are found to be about 20 times higher than the RANS simulations.

Energy & Fuels↗

Measuring the electron temperature and identifying plasma detachment using machine learning and spectroscopy

A machine learning approach has been implemented to measure the electron temperature directly from the emission spectra of a tokamak plasma. This approach utilized a neural network (NN) trained on a dataset of 1865 time slices from operation of the DIII-D tokamak using extreme ultraviolet/vacuum ultraviolet emission spectroscopy matched with high-accuracy divertor Thomson scattering measurements of the electron temperature, T e . This NN is shown to be particularly good at predicting T e at low temperatures (T e < 10 eV) where the NN demonstrated a mean average error of less than 1 eV. Trained to detect plasma detachment in the tokamak divertor, a NN classifier was able to correctly identify detached states (T e < 5 eV) with a 99% accuracy (an F 1 score of 0.96) at an acquisition rate 10× faster than the Thomson scattering measurement. The performance of the model is understood by examining a set of 4800 theoretical spectra generated using collisional radiative modeling that was also used to predict the performance of a low-cost spectrometer viewing nitrogen emission in the visible wavelengths. Furthermore, these results provide a proof-of-principle that low-cost spectrometers leveraged with machine learning can be used to boost the performance of more expensive diagnostics on fusion devices and be used independently as a fast and accurate T e measurement and detachment classifier.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Data-driven modeling to enhance municipal water demand estimates in response to dynamic climate conditions

Altered precipitation and temperature patterns from a changing climate will affect supply, demand, and overall municipal water system operations throughout the arid western U.S. While supply forecasts leverage hydrological models to connect climate influences with surface water availability, demand forecasts typically estimate water use independent of climate and other externalities. Stemming from an increased focus on seasonal water demand management, we use the Salt Lake City, Utah municipal water system as a test bed to assess model accuracy versus complexity trade-offs between simple climate-independent econometric-based models and complex climate-sensitive data-driven models to average to extreme wet and dry climate conditions—representative of a new climate normal. Here, the climate-independent model displayed low performance during extreme dry conditions with predictions exceeding 90% and 40% of the observed monthly and seasonal volumetric demands, respectively, which we attribute to insufficient model complexity. The climate-sensitive models displayed greater accuracy in all conditions, with an ordinary least squares model demonstrating a measurable reduction in prediction bias (3.4% vs. -27.3%) and RMSE (74.0 lpcd vs. 294 lpcd) compared to the climate-independent model. The climate-sensitive workflow increased model accuracy and characterized climate-demand interactions, demonstrating a novel tool to enhance water system management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Benchmark Solutions for Radiation Transport in Stochastic Media with Inhomogeneous Material Statistics

Accurately solving implicit Monte Carlo (IMC) thermal photon transport problems with mixed material cells is important in realistic applications. The production IMC package at LLNL treats mixed material cells arising from ALE remap and hydrodynamics using the same approximate model. The new Imp IMC thermal photon transport package currently under development has both a material interface reconstruction (MIR) algorithm and a Levermore-Pomraning (LP) stochastic medium algorithm for treating mixed material cells. Existing stochastic medium algorithms for treating mixed material cells in IMC lack a complete theoretical basis. The IMC LP algorithm implementation has been demonstrated to reproduce published deterministic LP solutions for the particular case of spatially homogeneous material statistics. Realistic simulations will include spatially inhomogeneous material statistics (material mean chord lengths). In a previous investigation, the LP-model for transport in binary stochastic media in rod geometry was generalized to accommodate spatially varying material chord lengths, i.e., the mixing statistics were allowed to be nonhomogeneous. Analytical solutions were obtained and used to produce a verifi cation suite for the Imp IMC Levermore-Pomraning implementation for different spatial variations of the chord lengths. However, the accuracy of the LP model when the mixing statistics are nonhomogeneous has not been assessed and leaves open the question of whether local accuracy is improved or further degraded when chord lengths are not uniform. This shortcoming is rectifi ed here by developing benchmark analytic solutions for transport in binary Markovian stochastic mixtures in rod geometry with nonhomogeneous mixing statistics, using spatially varying chord lengths considered in the previous investigation based on the LP model. Methods for sampling a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) are first described and used to construct individual realizations of the binary mixtures in rod geometry. Analytic solutions are then obtained for the forward and backward directed fluxes on a given realization, now viewed as a deterministic medium with alternating layers of the two materials with known interface locations. Finally, material averaged scalar fluxes are obtained using these sampling schemes with spatially linear and quadratic chord lengths and used to assess the accuracy of the previously obtained LP-model results.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

3D-ReG: A 3D ReRAM-based Heterogeneous Architecture for Training Deep Neural Networks

Deep neural network (DNN) models are being expanded to a broader range of applications. The computational capability of traditional hardware platforms cannot accommodate the growth of model complexity. Among recent technologies to accelerate DNN, resistive memory (ReRAM)-based processing-in-memory (PIM) emerged as a promising solution for DNN inference due to its high efficiency for matrix-based computation. We face two major technical challenges in extending the use of ReRAM-based accelerators for training: (1) full-precision data is essential in back-propagation; (2) the need to support both feed-forward and back-propagation aggravates the data-movement burden. We propose a heterogeneous architecture named as 3D-ReG, which leverages full-precision GPU to ensure training accuracy and low-overhead 3D integration to provide low-cost data movements. Moreover, we introduce conservative and aggressive task-mapping schemes, which partition the computation phases in different ways to balance execution efficiency and training accuracy. We evaluate 3D-ReG implemented with two 3D integration technologies, through-silicon vias (TSVs) and monolithic inter-tier vias (MIVs), and compare them with GPU-only and PIM-only counterparts. Various GPU-only platforms using two main-memory technologies (DRAM, ReRAM) and three interconnect technologies (2D, TSV, MIV) are evaluated as well. Experimental results show that 3D-ReG can achieve on average 5.64× training speedup and 3.56× higher energy efficiency compared with the GPU with DRAM as main memory, at the cost of 0.05%–3.39% accuracy drop. We define a new metric, gain-loss ratio (GLR), which quantitatively evaluates the capability of a DNN training hardware in terms of the model accuracy and hardware efficiency. The results of our comparison show that the aggressive task-mapping scheme on MIV-based 3D-ReG outperforms the other methods.

Computer Science↗

Improved natural convection heat transfer correlations for reactor cavity cooling systems of high-temperature gas-cooled reactors: From computational fluid dynamics to Pronghorn

The Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) is a common reactor safety system in High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors (HTGR) that removes heat from the Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) by radiation ($\sim 80\%$) and natural convection ($\sim 20\%$). For simulation of accident scenarios of HTGRs, intermediate fidelity and system codes models must be employed for limiting the models' execution time. While accurate quantification of the radiative heat transfer is available in these models, quantification of natural convection must rely on correlations of questionable accuracy for the Nusselt number. Commonly used correlations are based in experiments performed at low Rayleigh numbers and/or using isothermal walls in simplified geometries. Here, this work improves on the accuracy of natural convection heat transfer correlations in support for HTGR designs. These correlations include both local and average Nusselt numbers as a function of the global Rayleigh number, the local Rayleigh number, and the temperature profile at the hot wall of the RCCS. In the absence of dedicated experiments and the difficulty of performing high-fidelity simulations at realistic Rayleigh numbers, the data to fit the correlations are generated with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) using Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models. First, a careful selection of the RANS turbulence model is performed by comparing the results obtained with different RANS turbulence models against high fidelity simulations of natural convection at $Ra \ 1 \times 10^{11}$ in a rectangular cavity. Next, the selected model is used to perform simulations of an HTGR cavity at different high Rayleigh numbers $\in [6.1 \times 10^{11},2.9 \times 10^{13}]$ to encompass several HTGR designs, assuming an isothermal RPV wall. The results obtained are used to fit a correlation for the average and space-varying Nusselt number as a function of the global and local Rayleigh numbers via a sparsity-promoting least-squares method. The selected RANS model is then used to perform simulations of a PBMR 400 HTGR cavity with the temperature profiles at the RPV wall obtained during a PLOFC transient. We use the results obtained to fit a temperature-dependent correction to the space-varying Nusselt number with the sparsity-promoting least-squares method. The results obtained in this work, enable system-level codes, such as Pronghorn, to perform higher-fidelity simulations of the heat exchange process in the RCCS while still maintaining a low computational cost.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Uncertainty quantification for Joule heating processes in fibrous pore-resolved media

Joule heating (JH) is an energy-efficient and sustainable technique for heating materials. Its application for industrial heating, particularly, has been gaining attention due to its potential for increasing the yield of various chemical products. The process involves the use of heating elements (materials that are highly conductive electrically and thermally) to heat up other materials or substances. These conductors, however, can exhbit varying degrees of uncertainty due to non-linearities in their temperature-dependent properties, which could result in variable material behavior. In this work, we carry out uncertainty quantification (UQ) at the pore scale to describe the uncertainty of such materials. In so doing, we applied the non-intrusive polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) technique to quantify the uncertainty within the system. The steady state Joule heating equation was solved numerically at the pore scale mimicking conditions within a heating chamber for propane dehydrogenation, and various electro-thermal profiles were obtained. We also examined the effect of the number of sampling points (20 – 100) and order of the PCE coefficients (2 – 5) on the accuracy of the temperature evaluations. The results were then benchmarked with the standard Monte Carlo (MC) method. The average temperature of the 4th-order global PCE showed good agreement with the MC results (which were positively skewed). Orders greater than 4 gave an underestimation of the temperatures while predictions for the peak temperature improved as the number of sampling points increased.

Fagbemi, Samuel [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000236995025)↗

Electron inelastic mean free path in water

Liquid phase transmission electron microscopy (LPTEM) is rapidly developing as a powerful tool for probing processes in liquid environments with close to atomic resolution. Knowledge of the water thickness is needed for reliable interpretation and modelling of analytical studies in LPTEM, and is particularly essential when using thin liquid layers, required for achieving the highest spatial resolutions. Furthermore, the log-ratio method in electron energy-loss spectroscopy (EELS) is often applied in TEM to quantify the sample thickness, which is measured relative to the inelastic mean free path ( λ IMFP ). However, λ IMFP itself is dependent on sample material, the electron energy, and the convergence and divergence angles of the microscope electronoptics. Here, we present a detailed quantitative analysis of the λ IMFP of water as functions of the EELS collection angle ( β ) at 120 keV and 300 keV in a novel nanochannel liquid cell. We observe good agreement with earlier studies conducted on ice, but find that the most widely used theoretical models significantly underestimate λ IMFP of water. We determine an adjusted average energy-loss term E m, water , and characteristic scattering angle θ E, water that improve the accuracy. The results provide a comprehensive knowledge of the λ IMFP of water (or ice) for reliable interpretation and quantification of observations in LPTEM and cryo-TEM studies.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

New, improved analysis of correlation ECE data to accurately determine turbulent electron temperature spectra and magnitudes (invited)

Turbulent electron temperature fluctuation measurement using a correlation electron cyclotron emission (CECE) radiometer has become an important diagnostic for studying energy transport in fusion plasmas, and its use is widespread in tokamaks (DIII-D, ASDEX Upgrade, Alcator C-Mod, Tore Supra, EAST, TCV, HL-2A, etc.). The CECE diagnostic typically performs correlation analysis between two closely spaced (within the turbulent correlation length) ECE channels that are dominated by uncorrelated thermal noise emission. This allows electron temperature fluctuations embedded in the thermal noise to be revealed and fluctuation level and spectra determined. We have demonstrated a new, improved CECE coherency-based analysis for calculating the temperature fluctuation frequency spectrum and level, which has been verified both numerically through the simulation of synthetic ECE radiometer data and through analysis of experimental data from the CECE system on DIII-D. The new formulation places coherency-based analysis on a firm foundational footing and corrects some currently published methodologies. This new method accurately accounts for bias error in the coherence function and correctly calculates noise levels for a fixed data record length. It provides excellent accuracy in determining temperature fluctuation level (e.g., <10% error) even for a small realization number in the ensemble average. The method also has a smaller uncertainty (i.e., error bar) in the power spectrum when compared to the more standard cross-power method when evaluated at low coherency. Direct calculation of system noise level using correlation between randomized intermediate frequency signals is recommended.

Wang, G. (ORCID:0000000225739827)↗

Optimizing Hydronic Heating for Comfort and Performance in Multifamily Housing

Inefficient control settings in multifamily boilers often lead to substantial energy and cost penalties. To address this, a Fault Detection and Diagnostic (FDD) tool was developed to automate data analysis and identify operational faults such as suboptimal outdoor temperature sensor placement, misconfigured outdoor air reset (OAR) curves, excess boiler cycling, and domestic hot water (DHW) setpoint errors. By comparing pre- and post-implementation periods and applying engineering models, the tool quantifies energy savings and reduces manual analysis time by over 90%. Testing on over 100 monitored sites and a targeted subset of 12 buildings showed an average 11% energy savings from remote optimization; further validation across 19 OAR curve changes confirmed the tool’s accuracy, predicting actual savings within ±5% for most cases. Simple payback can be under three years for many multifamily buildings, though rising hardware, labor, and fuel costs create uncertainties, and decarbonization goals increasingly shift focus to electrification. The FDD tool remains invaluable for optimizing existing boilers, enhancing future electrification measures, and adapting to new technologies by refining building load estimates. In doing so, it supports both near-term efficiency and long-term transitions to low-carbon alternatives, ensuring buildings achieve substantial cost and energy benefits throughout their system lifecycles.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Local Weather Station Design and Development for Cost-Effective Environmental Monitoring and Real-Time Data Sharing

Current weather monitoring systems often remain out of reach for small-scale users and local communities due to their high costs and complexity. This paper addresses this significant issue by introducing a cost-effective, easy-to-use local weather station. Utilizing low-cost sensors, this weather station is a pivotal tool in making environmental monitoring more accessible and user-friendly, particularly for those with limited resources. It offers efficient in-site measurements of various environmental parameters, such as temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, carbon dioxide concentration, and particulate matter, including PM 1, PM 2.5, and PM 10. The findings demonstrate the station’s capability to monitor these variables remotely and provide forecasts with a high degree of accuracy, displaying an error margin of just 0.67%. Furthermore, the station’s use of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model enables short-term, reliable forecasts crucial for applications in agriculture, transportation, and air quality monitoring. Furthermore, the weather station’s open-source nature significantly enhances environmental monitoring accessibility for smaller users and encourages broader public data sharing. With this approach, crucial in addressing climate change challenges, the station empowers communities to make informed decisions based on real-time data. In designing and developing this low-cost, efficient monitoring system, this work provides a valuable blueprint for future advancements in environmental technologies, emphasizing sustainability. The proposed automatic weather station not only offers an economical solution for environmental monitoring but also features a user-friendly interface for seamless data communication between the sensor platform and end users. This system ensures the transmission of data through various web-based platforms, catering to users with diverse technical backgrounds. Furthermore, by leveraging historical data through the ARIMA model, the station enhances its utility in providing short-term forecasts and supporting critical decision-making processes across different sectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamic Phasor Modeling of Three Phase Voltage Source Inverters

With the increase in the development and implementation of distributed energy resources, application of parallel connected inverters is increasing and as a result having accurate modeling and simulation tools that can help in the design, analysis and stability assessment of the grid is of great importance. Development of fundamental methods that can achieve accurate, reliable, and computationally efficient results can be very beneficial. Application of Dynamic phasor (DP) modeling method has been limited to study of limited harmonics and small combination of interconnected converters due to the complexity associated with developing models that describe larger systems. In this paper, application of DP modeling method is expanded to model any number of parallel connected three phase voltage source inverter (VSI) with inclusion of a wider harmonic content including fundamental, subharmonics, inter-harmonics, switching frequency and their sidebands. Results achieved from this modeling method is compared with conventional average model as well as detailed switching model and the effect of inclusion of wider harmonic content on accuracy of DP modeling method is demonstrated.

Xue, Yaosuo↗

C3MechLite: An integrated component library of compact kinetic mechanisms for low-carbon, carbon neutral and zero-carbon fuels

Based on our latest detailed chemical reaction mechanism, C3MechV4.0, we have developed two reduced reaction mechanisms—C3MechLite and C3MechCore—targeting C 0 –C 3 chemical species including NH 3 . C3MechLite (61 species), contains a number of species comparable to GRI-Mech (53 species), that can accurately predict the combustion characteristics of hydrogen, carbon monoxide, ammonia, methane, natural gas, nitrogen oxides, and their mixtures for a wide range of conditions. C3MechCore (118 species) targets a more comprehensive range of C 0 –C 3 fuels, including ammonia, methanol, ethanol, and dimethyl ether. Both mechanisms demonstrate predictive accuracy comparable to C3MechV4.0 for the combustion characteristics of the target fuels. C3MechLite is designed with a component library structure, enabling further reduction in mechanism size depending on the fuel(s) of interest for 2D/3D numerical simulations. Various combinations of component libraries were validated, and the average prediction error remains within 1 % compared to C3MechLite. Furthermore, the mechanism was applied to 3D LES simulations of H 2 lifted flames and was confirmed to reproduce flame characteristics with high accuracy. C3MechLite and its component library structure enable high-fidelity and computationally efficient chemical kinetic mechanisms, paving the way for application in more complex combustion simulations.

Ammonia↗

ARETE: Accurate Error Assessment via Machine Learning-Guided Dynamic-Timing Analysis

Nanometer circuits are increasingly prone to timing errors, escalating the need for fault injection frameworks to accurately evaluate their impact on applications. Here in this paper, we propose ARETE, a novel cross-layer, fault-injection framework that combines dynamic-binary instrumentation with machine learning-guided dynamic-timing analysis. ARETE enables accurate fault-injection into any application by estimating the location of the injecting errors via dynamic-timing analysis. To accelerate fault-injection, we develop a novel, data-aware, machine learning-based mechanism that dynamically pre-selects the error-prone instructions and limits the application of the costly dynamic-timing analysis only to them. To evaluate ARETE's accuracy, our fully automated toolflow is configured to support fault-injection based on detailed post-layout gate-level simulations as well as via existing workload-agnostic error models. Our results for various workloads, including an autonomous-driving library, show that the location and time of injected errors performed by ARETE, is 89.9% consistent with fault-injection based on full gate-level simulation. On average, ARETE executes 84.6x faster than gate-level simulation and at a cost of 3.4% loss in the program output quality estimation. When compared to the existing statistical fault-injection tools that are based on workload-agnostic error models, ARETE improves the accuracy of fault-injection rate and output quality estimation by 143.9% and 40.4% on average, respectively.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Thermodynamics of Metal Carbonates and Bicarbonates and Their Hydrates for Mg, Ca, Fe, and Cd Relevant to Mineral Energetics

The heats of formation of carbonate, bicarbonate and bicarbonate/hydroxide metal complexes and hydrated versions these complexes of Mg 2+ , Ca 2+ , Fe 2+ , and Cd 2+ are predicted from atomization energies using correlated molecular orbital theory at the CCSD(T) level extrapolated to the complete basis set limit following the Feller-Peterson-Dixon (FPD) approach. Using the calculated gas phase values and the available experimental solid state values, the cohesive energies of selected minerals were calculated. The gas phase decomposition energies into MO, CO 2 and H 2 O follow the order Mg ~ Ca > Cd ~ Fe, and correlate with the hardness of the metal +2 ions. Gas phase hydration energies show that the order is Mg > Fe > Ca ~ Cd. There are a number of bulk hydrated Mg and Ca complexes that occur as minerals but there are few if any for Fe and Cd, suggesting that a number of factors are important in determining the stability of the bulk mineral hydrates. The FPD heats of formation were used to benchmark a range of density functional theory exchange-correlation functionals, including those commonly used in solid state mineral calculations. None of the functionals provided chemical accuracy agreement (± 1 kcal/mol) with the FPD results The best functionals are ωB97X and ωB97X-D with mean average unsigned errors of 10 kcal/mol.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗