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At least 253 records · Page 14

STS-77 Flight Day 10

On this tenth day of the STS-77 mission, the flight crew, Cmdr. John H. Casper, Pilot Curtis L. Brown, Jr., and Mission Specialists Andrew S.W. Thomas, Ph.D., Daniel W. Bursch, Mario Runco, Jr., and Marc Garneau, Ph.D., perform a routine check of the shuttle's flight control surfaces and reaction control system jets, wrap up work with a number of scientific investigations, and begin securing the cabin for the trip back to Earth. Most experiments aboard the shuttle have been completed and stowed away, although a few will operate throughout the night and be deactivated once the crew wakes. Crew members Andy Thomas, a native of Australia, and Marc Garneau, a Canadian, each receive special greetings today as STS-77 nears its end. South Australia Premier Dean Brown called Thomas with congratulations early this morning as the shuttle passed above Brown's office in Adelaide, Australia, Thomas' hometown. Later, Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien called Garneau to congratulate him on the mission and the joint Canadian Space Agency and NASA experiments that were conducted.

Source record↗

Groundwater and Terrestrial Water Storage

Most people think of groundwater as a resource, but it is also a useful indicator of climate variability and human impacts on the environment. Groundwater storage varies slowly relative to other non-frozen components of the water cycle, encapsulating long period variations and trends in surface meteorology. On seasonal to interannual timescales, groundwater is as dynamic as soil moisture, and it has been shown that groundwater storage changes have contributed to sea level variations. Groundwater monitoring well measurements are too sporadic and poorly assembled outside of the United States and a few other nations to permit direct global assessment of groundwater variability. However, observational estimates of terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations from the GRACE satellites largely represent groundwater storage variations on an interannual basis, save for high latitude/altitude (dominated by snow and ice) and wet tropical (surface water) regions. A figure maps changes in mean annual TWS from 2009 to 2010, based on GRACE, reflecting hydroclimatic conditions in 2010. Severe droughts impacted Russia and the Amazon, and drier than normal weather also affected the Indochinese peninsula, parts of central and southern Africa, and western Australia. Groundwater depletion continued in northern India, while heavy rains in California helped to replenish aquifers that have been depleted by drought and withdrawals for irrigation, though they are still below normal levels. Droughts in northern Argentina and western China similarly abated. Wet weather raised aquifer levels broadly across western Europe. Rains in eastern Australia caused flooding to the north and helped to mitigate a decade long drought in the south. Significant reductions in TWS seen in the coast of Alaska and the Patagonian Andes represent ongoing glacier melt, not groundwater depletion. Figures plot time series of zonal mean and global GRACE derived non-seasonal TWS anomalies (deviation from the mean of each month of the year) excluding Greenland and Antarctica. The two figures show that 2010 was the driest year since 2003. The drought in the Amazon was largely responsible, but an excess of water in 2009 seems to have buffered that drought to some extent. The drying trend in the 25-55 deg S zone is a combination of Patagonian glacier melt and drought in parts of Australia.

Rodell, Matthew↗

Use of GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Retrievals to Evaluate Model Estimates by the Australian Water Resources Assessment System

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) estimates retrievals from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission were compared to TWS modeled by the Australian Water Resources Assessment (AWRA) system. The aim was to test whether differences could be attributed and used to identify model deficiencies. Data for 2003 2010 were decomposed into the seasonal cycle, linear trends and the remaining de-trended anomalies before comparing. AWRA tended to have smaller seasonal amplitude than GRACE. GRACE showed a strong (greater than 15 millimeter per year) drying trend in northwest Australia that was associated with a preceding period of unusually wet conditions, whereas weaker drying trends in the southern Murray Basin and southwest Western Australia were associated with relatively dry conditions. AWRA estimated trends were less negative for these regions, while a more positive trend was estimated for areas affected by cyclone Charlotte in 2009. For 2003-2009, a decrease of 7-8 millimeter per year (50-60 cubic kilometers per year) was estimated from GRACE, enough to explain 6-7% of the contemporary rate of global sea level rise. This trend was not reproduced by the model. Agreement between model and data suggested that the GRACE retrieval error estimates are biased high. A scaling coefficient applied to GRACE TWS to reduce the effect of signal leakage appeared to degrade quantitative agreement for some regions. Model aspects identified for improvement included a need for better estimation of rainfall in northwest Australia, and more sophisticated treatment of diffuse groundwater discharge processes and surface-groundwater connectivity for some regions.

van Dijk, A. I. J. M.↗

Global-Scale Comparison of Passive (SMOS) and Active (ASCAT) Satellite Based Microwave Soil Moisture Retrievals with Soil Moisture Simulations (MERRA-Land)

Global surface soil moisture (SSM) datasets are being produced based on active and passive microwave satellite observations and simulations from land surface models (LSM). This study investigates the consistency of two global satellite-based SSM datasets based on microwave remote sensing observations from the passive Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS;SMOSL3 version 2.5) and the active Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT; version TUWien- WARP 5.5) with respect to LSM SSM from the MERRA-Land data product. The relationship between the global-scale SSM products was studied during the 2010-2012 period using (1) a time series statistics (considering both original SSM data and anomalies), (2) a space-time analysis using Hovmoller diagrams, and (3) a triple collocation error model. The SMOSL3 and ASCAT retrievals are consistent with the temporal dynamics of modeled SSM (correlation R (is) greater than 0.70 for original SSM) in the transition zones between wet and dry climates, including the Sahel, the Indian subcontinent, the Great Plains of North America, eastern Australia, and southeastern Brazil. Over relatively dense vegetation covers, a better consistency with MERRA-Land was obtained with ASCAT than with SMOSL3. However, it was found that ASCAT retrievals exhibit negative correlation versus MERRA-Land in some arid regions (e.g., the Sahara and the Arabian Peninsula). In terms of anomalies, SMOSL3 better captures the short term SSM variability of the reference dataset (MERRA-Land) than ASCAT over regions with limited radio frequency interference (RFI) effects (e.g., North America, South America, and Australia). The seasonal and latitudinal variations of SSM are relatively similar for the three products, although the MERRALand SSM values are generally higher and their seasonal amplitude is much lower than for SMOSL3 and ASCAT. Both SMOSL3 and ASCAT have relatively comparable triple collocation errors with similar spatial error patterns: (i) lowest errors in arid regions (e.g., Sahara and Arabian Peninsula), due to the very low natural variability of soil moisture in these areas, and Central America, and (ii) highest errors over most of the vegetated regions (e.g., northern Australia, India, central Asia, and South America). However, the ASCAT SSM product is prone to larger random errors in some regions (e.g., north-western Africa, Iran, and southern South Africa). Vegetation density was found to be a key factor to interpret the consistency with MERRA-Land between the two remotely sensed products (SMOSL3 and ASCAT) which provides complementary information on SSM. This study shows that both SMOS and ASCAT have thus a potential for data fusion into long-term data records.

ASCAT↗

Fireballs in the Sky: An Augmented Reality Citizen Science Program

Fireballs in the Sky is an innovative Australian citizen science program that connects the public with the research of the Desert Fireball Network (DFN). This research aims to understand the early workings of the solar system, and Fireballs in the Sky invites people around the world to learn about this science, contributing fireball sightings via a user-friendly augmented reality mobile app. Tens of thousands of people have downloaded the app world-wide and participated in the science of meteoritics. The Fireballs in the Sky app allows users to get involved with the Desert Fireball Network research, supplementing DFN observations and providing enhanced coverage by reporting their own meteor sightings to DFN scientists. Fireballs in the Sky reports are used to track the trajectories of meteors - from their orbit in space to where they might have landed on Earth. Led by Phil Bland at Curtin University in Australia, the Desert Fireball Network (DFN) uses automated observatories across Australia to triangulate trajectories of meteorites entering the atmosphere, determine pre-entry orbits, and pinpoint their fall positions. Each observatory is an autonomous intelligent imaging system, taking 1000 by 36 megapixel all-sky images throughout the night, using neural network algorithms to recognize events. They are capable of operating for 12 months in a harsh environment, and store all imagery collected. We developed a completely automated software pipeline for data reduction, and built a supercomputer database for storage, allowing us to process our entire archive. The DFN currently stands at 50 stations distributed across the Australian continent, covering an area of 2.5 million square kilometers. Working with DFN's partners at NASA's Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute, the team is expanding the network beyond Australia to locations around the world. Fireballs in the Sky allows a growing public base to learn about and participate in this exciting research.

Day, Brian↗

Assessing the Impact of Large Volcanic Eruptions of the Last Millennium (850-1850 CE) on Australian Rainfall Regimes

Explosive volcanism is an important natural climate forcing, impacting global surface temperatures and regional precipitation. Although previous studies have investigated aspects of the impact of tropical volcanism on various ocean–atmosphere systems and regional climate regimes, volcanic eruptions remain a poorly understood climate forcing and climatic responses are not well constrained. In this study, volcanic eruptions are explored in particular reference to Australian precipitation, and both the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using nine realizations of the last millennium (LM) (850–1850CE) with different time-evolving forcing combinations, from the NASA GISS ModelE2-R, the impact of the six largest tropical volcanic eruptions of this period are investigated. Overall, we find that volcanic aerosol forcing increased the likelihood of El Niño and positive IOD conditions for up to four years following an eruption, and resulted in positive precipitation anomalies over north-west (NW) and south-east (SE) Australia. Larger atmospheric sulfate loading during larger volcanic eruptions coincided with more persistent positive IOD and El Niño conditions, enhanced positive precipitation anomalies over NW Australia, and dampened precipitation anomalies over SE Australia.

Blake, Stephanie A. P.↗

Appraisal of SMAP Operational Soil Moisture Product from a Global Perspective

Space-borne soil moisture (SM) satellite products such as those available from Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) offer unique opportunities for global and frequent monitoring of SM and also to understand its spatiotemporal variability. The present study investigates the performance of the SMAP L4 SM product at selected experimental sites across four continents, namely North America, Europe, Asia and Australia. This product provides global scale SM estimates at 9 km × 9 km spatial resolution at daily intervals. For the product evaluation, co-orbital in situ SM measurements were used, acquired at 14 test sites in North America, Europe, and Australia belonging to the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) and local networks in India. The satellite SM estimates of up to 0–5 cm soil layer were compared against collocated ground measurements using a series of statistical scores. Overall, the best performance of the SMAP product was found in North America (RMSE = 0.05 m(exp 3)/m(exp 3)) followed by Australia (RMSE = 0.08 m(exp 3)/m(exp 3)), Asia (RMSE = 0.09 m(exp 3)/m(exp 3)) and Europe (RMSE = 0.14 m(exp 3)/m(exp 3)). Our findings provide important insights into the spatiotemporal variability of the specific operational SM product in different ecosystems and environments. This study also furnishes an independent verification of this global product, which is of international interest given its suitability for a wide range of practical and research applications.

Soil moisture↗

Rapid Conjugate Appearance of the Giant Ionospheric Lamb Wave Signatures in the Northern Hemisphere After Hunga-Tonga Volcano Eruptions

The explosive eruption of the Hunga-Tonga volcano in the southwest Pacific at 0415UT on 15 January 2022 triggered gigantic atmospheric disturbances with surface air pressure waves propagating around the globe in Lamb mode. In space, concentric traveling ionosphere disturbances (CTIDs) are also observed as a manifestation of air pressure waves in New Zealand ∼0500UT and Australia ∼0630UT. As soon as the air pressure waves reached central Australia ∼0800UT, conjugate CTIDs appeared almost simultaneously in the northern hemispheres through interhemispheric coupling, much earlier than the arrival of the surface air pressure waves to Japan after 1100UT. Combining observations over Australia and Japan between 0800 and 1000UT, both direct and conjugate CTIDs show similar horizontal phase velocities of 320–390 m/s, matching with the dispersion relation of Lamb mode. The arrival of atmospheric Lamb wave to Japan later created in situ CTIDs showing the same Lamb mode characteristics as the earlier conjugate CTIDs.

Concentric traveling ionospheric disturbances↗

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Dusty Star-Forming Galaxies and Active Galactic Nuclei in the Southern Survey

We present a catalogue of 191 extragalactic sources detected by the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) at 148 and/or 218 GHz in the 2008 Southern survey. Flux densities span 14 -1700 mJy, and we use source spectral indices derived using ACT-only data to divide our sources into two subpopulations: 167 radio galaxies powered by central active galactic nuclei (AGN) and 24 dusty star-forming galaxies (DSFGs). We cross-identify 97 per cent of our sources (166 of the AGN and 19 of the DSFGs) with those in currently available catalogues. When combined with flux densities from the Australia Telescope 20 GHz survey and follow-up observations with the Australia Telescope Compact Array, the synchrotron-dominated population is seen to exhibit a steepening of the slope of the spectral energy distribution from 20 to 148 GHz, with the trend continuing to 218 GHz. The ACT dust-dominated source population has a median spectral index, A(sub 148-218), of 3.7 (+0.62 or −0.86), and includes both local galaxies and sources with redshift around 6. Dusty sources with no counterpart in existing catalogues likely belong to a recently discovered subpopulation of DSFGs lensed by foreground galaxies or galaxy groups.

dusty star-forming galaxies (DSFGs)↗

What's on the menu? Examining native apex‐ and invasive meso‐predator diets to understand impacts on ecosystems

Abstract Understanding how carnivores impact ecological communities is essential for guiding effective management actions and conserving biodiversity. Quantifying predators' diets, including prey selectivity, allows for the assessment of the relative effects native and invasive predators may have on prey populations. In Australia, populations of a native, terrestrial apex predator, the dingo Canis dingo/C. familiaris , and introduced and invasive subordinate mesopredators, the European red fox Vulpes vulpes and feral cat Felis catus , co‐occur, but there is limited understanding of their relative impacts on native and invasive prey in different ecosystems. To assess the possible effects of dingoes, foxes and cats on prey, we examined their diet and prey selectivity across a ~10,000 km 2 semi‐arid mallee ecosystem. Using macroscopic scat analysis, we identified strong dietary niche separation. Larger‐bodied dingoes primarily consumed large marsupial herbivores, whereas foxes and cats primarily consumed smaller prey, including introduced and native rodents and birds. Foxes had the broadest diet, and the greatest dietary overlap with cats ( = 0.81), compared with dingoes ( = 0.50) or between dingoes and cats ( = 0.36). Livestock were identified in 2% of dingo and 7% of fox scats. Cats and foxes consumed more than 15 times the volume of small native mammals compared with dingoes, including threatened species such as fat‐tailed dunnarts Sminthopsis crassicaudata . Cats and foxes also selectively consumed small mammals relative to their estimated availability and consumed fewer large mammals. In contrast, dingoes consumed fewer birds and more echidnas relative to their availability. Our results suggest limited intraguild competition within this semi‐arid ecosystem, as dingoes are primarily exerting top‐down pressure on large herbivores, whereas invasive mesopredators are disproportionately impacting smaller prey, including threatened native mammals. Practical implication . Our findings suggest that ongoing conservation management of dingoes, red foxes and feral cats must consider the variation in diets, impacts on prey and ecological roles of these different predator species, and avoid indiscriminate lethal control methods. Quantifying actual, rather than assumed, impacts of predators on threatened native species, large herbivores and livestock is essential to achieve effective and integrated ecosystem management.

Mason, Rachel T. [School of Life and Environmental↗

Degradation Reduces Microbial Richness and Alters Microbial Functions in an Australian Peatland

Abstract Peatland ecosystems cover only 3% of the world’s land area; however, they store one-third of the global soil carbon (C). Microbial communities are the main drivers of C decomposition in peatlands, yet we have limited knowledge of their structure and function. While the microbial communities in the Northern Hemisphere peatlands are well documented, we have limited understanding of microbial community composition and function in the Southern Hemisphere peatlands, especially in Australia. We investigated the vertical stratification of prokaryote and fungal communities from Wellington Plains peatland in the Australian Alps. Within the peatland complex, bog peat was sampled from the intact peatland and dried peat from the degraded peatland along a vertical soil depth gradient (i.e., acrotelm, mesotelm, and catotelm). We analyzed the prokaryote and fungal community structure, predicted functional profiles of prokaryotes using PICRUSt, and assigned soil fungal guilds using FUNGuild. We found that the structure and function of prokaryotes were vertically stratified in the intact bog. Soil carbon, manganese, nitrogen, lead, and sodium content best explained the prokaryote composition. Prokaryote richness was significantly higher in the intact bog acrotelm compared to degraded bog acrotelm. Fungal composition remained similar across the soil depth gradient; however, there was a considerable increase in saprotroph abundance and decrease in endophyte abundance along the vertical soil depth gradient. The abundance of saprotrophs and plant pathogens was two-fold higher in the degraded bog acrotelm. Soil manganese and nitrogen content, electrical conductivity, and water table level (cm) best explained the fungal composition. Our results demonstrate that both fungal and prokaryote communities are shaped by soil abiotic factors and that peatland degradation reduces microbial richness and alters microbial functions. Thus, current and future changes to the environmental conditions in these peatlands may lead to altered microbial community structures and associated functions which may have implications for broader ecosystem function changes in peatlands.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Regional and Temporal Variability of Atmospheric River Seasonality: Influences of Detection Algorithms and Moisture Transport Dynamics

Abstract Understanding the regional and temporal variability of atmospheric river (AR) seasonality is crucial for preparedness and mitigation of extreme events. While ARs were thought to peak in winter, recent research shows they exhibit region‐specific seasonality and are heavily influenced by the chosen detection algorithm. This study examines the link between the year‐to‐year consistency of peak‐AR activity to the presence of a dominant seasonal pattern, considering both location and algorithm choice. Regions are categorized by their temporal characteristics: consistent patterns (e.g., East Asia), patterns with occasional outliers (e.g., British Columbia coast), and regions lacking a clear dominant peak season (e.g., South Atlantic, parts of Australia). Hence, not all regions display a consistent seasonal cycle of AR activity. This study quantifies the extent to which a region experiences a dominant peak season of AR activity (or lacks one) and offers insights to enhance decision‐making in water management, natural hazard preparedness, and forecasting. Furthermore, given our finding that detection algorithms influence the peak season of AR activity, we also examine two diagnostic variables representative of moisture transport to corroborate our results. Integrated vapor transport, which captures meridional and zonal moisture transport, and Moist Wave Activity, representing moisture intrusions from lower to higher latitudes, are examined. Our analysis indicates that inconsistencies in the seasonal cycle of AR activity are not solely due to discrepancies in detection algorithms but also arise from changes in moisture transport. Plain Language Summary Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are critical weather phenomena that can cause extreme events like heavy rainfall and flooding. Understanding when and where ARs are most likely to occur throughout the year is essential for preparing and responding to these events. Traditionally, ARs were thought to peak in winter, but recent studies show this varies by region. Our study helps address the challenge decision‐makers face in anticipating and preparing for AR events by providing insights into the consistency of peak seasonal patterns across different areas. Some regions, like East Asia, and the British Columbia coast, show a consistent peak season, while others, like the South Atlantic and parts of Australia, have significant year‐to‐year variations, making it hard to identify a dominant season. To better understand these changes over time, the study also examines how moisture moves in the atmosphere, using Integrated Vapor Transport (which looks at moisture movement in various directions) and Moist Wave Activity (which tracks moisture shifts from lower to higher latitudes). The findings suggest that inconsistencies in AR patterns are due not only to detection methods but also due to changes in moisture transport. Key Points The peak season of atmospheric river activity can change depending on the year in some areas Interannual variations in the peak season can make identifying a dominant season challenging for some regions Frequent shifts in peak season across years reflect inconsistencies tied to detection algorithms and to underlying dynamics

Kamnani, Diya↗

Linking soil phosphorus with forest litterfall resistance and resilience to cyclone disturbance: A pantropical meta-analysis

While tropical cyclone regimes are shifting with climate change, the mechanisms underpinning the resistance (ability to withstand disturbance-induced change) and resilience (capacity to return to pre-disturbance reference) of tropical forest litterfall to cyclones remain largely unexplored pantropically. Single-site studies in Australia and Hawaii suggest that litterfall on low-phosphorus (P) soils is more resistant and less resilient to cyclones. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the pantropical importance of total soil P in mediating forest litterfall resistance and resilience to 22 tropical cyclones. We evaluated cyclone-induced and post-cyclone litterfall mass (g/m 2 /day), and P and nitrogen (N) fluxes (mg/m 2 /day) and concentrations (mg/g), all indicators of ecosystem function and essential for nutrient cycling. Across 73 case studies in Australia, Guadeloupe, Hawaii, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Taiwan, total litterfall mass flux increased from ~2.5 ± 0.3 to 22.5 ± 3 g/m 2 /day due to cyclones, with large variation among studies. Litterfall P and N fluxes post-cyclone represented ~5% and 10% of the average annual fluxes, respectively. Post-cyclone leaf litterfall N and P concentrations were 21.6 ± 1.2% and 58.6 ± 2.3% higher than pre-cyclone means. Mixed-effects models determined that soil P negatively moderated the pantropical litterfall resistance to cyclones, with a 100 mg P/kg increase in soil P corresponding to a 32% to 38% decrease in resistance. Based on 33% of the resistance case studies, total litterfall mass flux reached pre-disturbance levels within one-year post-disturbance. A GAMM indicated that soil P, gale wind duration and time post-cyclone jointly moderate the short-term resilience of total litterfall, with the nature of the relationship between resilience and soil P contingent on time and wind duration. Across pantropical forests observed to date, our results indicate that litterfall resistance and resilience in the face of intensifying cyclones will be partially determined by total soil P.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Pine‐fungal co‐invasion alters whole‐ecosystem properties of a native eucalypt forest

Summary Pine‐fungal co‐invasions into native ecosystems are increasingly prevalent across the southern hemisphere. In Australia, invasive pines slowly spread into native eucalypt forests, creating novel mixed forests. We sought to understand how pine‐fungal co‐invasions impact interconnected above‐ and belowground ecosystem characteristics. We sampled beneath maturePinus radiataandEucalyptus racemosain a pine‐invaded eucalypt forest in New South Wales, Australia. We measured microbial community composition via amplicon sequencing of 16S, ITS2, and 18S rDNA regions, microbial metabolic activity via Biolog plate substrate utilization, and soil, leaf litter, and understory plant characteristics. Pines were associated with decreased topsoil moisture, increased pine litter, and decreased eucalypt litter total phosphorus content. Soils and roots beneath pines had distinct microbial community composition and activity relative to eucalypts, including decreased bacterial diversity, decreased microbial utilization of several C‐ and N‐rich substrates, and enrichment of pine‐associated ectomycorrhizae. Introduced suilloid fungi were abundant across both pine and eucalypt soils and roots. Many ecosystem impacts increased with pine size. Invasive pines and their ectomycorrhizae have significant impacts on eucalypt forest properties as they grow. Interconnected impacts at the scale of individual trees should be considered when managing invaded forests and predicting effects of pine invasions.

Plant Sciences↗

Functional trait data for 11 canopy tree species in the control and drought treatments at AU-DRO (2018-2019)

This data package contains foliar abscisic acid levels, xylem anatomy, foliar d13C, leaf mass per area, leaf water potentials, non-structural carbohydrates, and pressure volume curve traits for 11 canopy tree species in the control and drought treatments at the Daintree Rainforest Observatory in Queensland, Australia (AU-DRO). Data were collected at the end of the dry season (Nov 2018) and end of the wet season (May 2019). The species included in the dataset are: Castanospermum australe, Cleistanthus myrianthus, Cryptocarya mackinnoniana, Dysoxylum papuanum, Elaeocarpus angustifolius (Elaeocarpus grandis), Endiandra microneura, Mallotus paniculatus, Myristica globosa, Rockinghamia angustifolia, Synima cordierorum, Syzygium spp. These data correspond to the previously archived dataset “Leaf gas exchange data, Nov 2018 and May 2019, Daintree Rainforest, Australia. NGEE-Tropics Data Archive” (DOI: 10.15486/ngt/1773854).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Precision Gas System Isotope Analyzer (PGSISO) Instrument Handbook

The PGSISO is a combination of several systems in series; (1) gas processing components that pressurize and prevent liquid water entering the sample stream, and (2) the Spectronus FTIR spectrometer, which measures continuous CO 2 , 12 CO 2 , 13 CO 2 , CH 4 , CO, N 2 O, and H 2 O. The Spectronus analyzer has been developed by the Centre for Atmospheric Chemistry at the University of Wollongong, Australia, and manufactured by Ecotech Pty Ltd, headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change

Abstract. Disastrous bushfires during the last months of 2019 and January 2020 affected Australia, raising the question to what extent the risk of these fires was exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. To answer the question for southeastern Australia, where fires were particularly severe, affecting people and ecosystems, we use a physically based index of fire weather, the Fire Weather Index; long-term observations of heat and drought; and 11 large ensembles of state-of-the-art climate models. We find large trends in the Fire Weather Index in the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Atmospheric Reanalysis (ERA5) since 1979 and a smaller but significant increase by at least 30 % in the models. Therefore, we find that climate change has induced a higher weather-induced risk of such an extreme fire season. This trend is mainly driven by the increase of temperature extremes. In agreement with previous analyses we find that heat extremes have become more likely by at least a factor of 2 due to the long-term warming trend. However, current climate models overestimate variability and tend to underestimate the long-term trend in these extremes, so the true change in the likelihood of extreme heat could be larger, suggesting that the attribution of the increased fire weather risk is a conservative estimate. We do not find an attributable trend in either extreme annual drought or the driest month of the fire season, September–February. The observations, however, show a weak drying trend in the annual mean. For the 2019/20 season more than half of the July–December drought was driven by record excursions of the Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode, factors which are included in the analysis here. The study reveals the complexity of the 2019/20 bushfire event, with some but not all drivers showing an imprint of anthropogenic climate change. Finally, the study concludes with a qualitative review of various vulnerability and exposure factors that each play a role, along with the hazard in increasing or decreasing the overall impact of the bushfires.

van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan (ORCID:0000000268989535)↗

Global detailed gravimetric geoid

A global detailed gravimetric geoid has been computed by combining the Goddard Space Flight Center GEM-4 gravity model derived from satellite and surface gravity data and surface 1 deg-by-1 deg mean free air gravity anomaly data. The accuracy of the geoid is + or - 2 meters on continents, 5 to 7 meters in areas where surface gravity data are sparse, and 10 to 15 meters in areas where no surface gravity data are available. Comparisons have been made with the astrogeodetic data provided by Rice (United States), Bomford (Europe), and Mather (Australia). Comparisons have also been carried out with geoid heights derived from satellite solutions for geocentric station coordinates in North America, the Caribbean, Europe, and Australia.

Vincent, S.↗