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DOE OSTI2021

The Impact of U.S. Re-engagement in Climate on the Paris Targets

The Paris Agreement is meant to bind together international efforts to reduce temperature increase to well-below 2ºC. While so far, ambitions in many signatories of the Paris Agreement have been insufficient to achieve this goal, optimism prevailed in the second half of 2020, with several major emitters enhancing their mitigation targets and a change of leadership in the United States (U.S.). Expectations are high for an active re-engagement in climate action by the Biden Administration, which immediately re-entered the Paris Agreement and announced a net-zero goal for 2050. Apart from the impact that U.S. federal re-engagement could have on national greenhouse gas emissions levels, there are several channels through which U.S. re-engagement in climate action could positively impact ambitions in other countries. This Policy Forum explores the impact of renewed U.S. engagement on national emissions, global emissions and end-of-century temperatures by comparing five combinations of climate ambitions in the U.S. and the rest of the world through an integrated assessment model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

Partnering with NASA: An Overview

Partnerships is an important part of doing business at NASA. NASA partners with external organizations to access capabilities under collaborative agreements; enters into agreements for partner access to NASA capabilities; expand overall landscape of space activity; and spurring innovation. NASA partnerships consist of Reimbursable and Non-Reimbursable Space Act Agreements. Partnerships at Ames aligns with Ames' core competencies, and Partners often office in the NASA Research Park, which is an established regional innovation cluster that facilitates commercialization and services as a technology accelerator via onsite collaborations between NASA and its partners.

Ames↗

DOE OSTI2022

Inclusive and differential cross section measurements of single top quark production in association with a Z boson in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV

Inclusive and differential cross sections of single top quark production in association with a Z boson are measured in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV with a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb - 1 recorded by the CMS experiment. Events are selected based on the presence of three leptons, electrons or muons, associated with leptonic Z boson and top quark decays. The measurement yields an inclusive cross section of $ {87.9}_{-7.3}^{+7.5}{\left(\mathrm{stat}\right)}_{-6.0}^{+7.3}\left(\mathrm{syst}\right) $ fb for a dilepton invariant mass greater than 30 GeV, in agreement with standard model (SM) calculations and represents the most precise determination to date. The ratio between the cross sections for the top quark and the top antiquark production in association with a Z boson is measured as $ {2.37}_{-0.42}^{+0.56}{\left(\mathrm{stat}\right)}_{-0.13}^{+0.27}\left(\mathrm{syst}\right) $ . Differential measurements at parton and particle levels are performed for the first time. Several kinematic observables are considered to study the modeling of the process. Results are compared to theoretical predictions with different assumptions on the source of the initial-state b quark and found to be in agreement, within the uncertainties. Additionally, the spin asymmetry, which is sensitive to the top quark polarization, is determined from the differential distribution of the polarization angle at parton level to be 0 . 54 ± 0 . 16 (stat) ± 0 . 06 (syst), in agreement with SM predictions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The environmental impact of hydropower: a systematic review of the ecological effects of sub-daily flow variability on riverine fish

Hydropower can help facilitate power grid decarbonization because it can respond to short-term changes in power demand and is comparatively more reliable than intermittent wind and solar. However, flexible hydropower operations can create rapid and abnormal fluctuations in downstream flow conditions, which can negatively impact aquatic ecosystems. Accordingly, we conducted a systematic review on the ecological effects of hydropower-driven sub-daily flow variability (SDFV) on riverine fishes. We reviewed and synthesized 109 articles relevant to fish-SDFV relationships from seven sources, most of which focused on Salmonids in North America and northern and western Europe and were published in the last 15 years. We found strong agreement in the literature that SDFV increases fish stranding risk, destabilizes habitat, and decreases production and diversity. We found moderate agreement that SDFV interrupts fish reproduction, increases or has no impact on condition, and prompts or discourages movement depending on local channel conditions. We found little to no agreement for relationships between SDFV and mortality, physiology, and behavior. The effects of SDFV on riverine fish ecology are intertwined in the complex suite of biotic and abiotic characteristics that structure aquatic ecosystems and are highly site-, species-, and life stage-specific. Assessments of the impact of SDFV on fish ecology should first characterize local habitat and channel quality and fish community composition to identify specific, measurable ecological outcomes to sustain or enhance, and then design mitigation strategies tailored to those ecological objectives.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

A tale of two towers: comparing NEON and AmeriFlux data streams at Bartlett Experimental Forest

Long-term ecological data are essential for detecting impacts of climate change and other global change factors, and for making informed predictions about future change. However, long-term measurements are rarely replicated at the site level, which raises questions about their representativeness. We used a multiscale approach to evaluate the agreement of parallel observations from AmeriFlux and NEON (National Ecological Observatory Network) towers at Bartlett Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA. The two towers are separated by a horizontal distance of 93 m. Here, we focused our analysis on standard meteorological variables; fluxes of CO 2 , sensible heat, and latent heat measured by eddy covariance; and phenology derived from PhenoCam imagery. Results suggest excellent agreement between AmeriFlux and NEON in meteorology and phenology, and good agreement in fluxes at the half-hourly scale. However, large disagreements in CO 2 and latent heat fluxes occurred at the annual scale, with implications especially for the forest carbon balance. The AmeriFlux tower measurements indicate a site that is close to carbon-neutral (-8 ± 65 g C m -2 y -1 , mean ± 1 SD), whereas the NEON tower measurements indicate a forest that is a carbon sink (-137 ± 10 g C m -2 y -1 ). Causes of this disagreement may include measurement height (26 m vs. 35 m), which resulted in different flux footprints being measured by the two towers, and differences in the flux measurement systems. Our results suggest the need for caution when attempting to merge long-term flux data from two different measurement platforms, and when using measurements from any one measurement platform to inform decision-making on issues related to carbon accounting or natural climate solutions.

Carbon cycle↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of a Griffin model of the advanced test reactor

In the pursuit of a higher fidelity deterministic simulation capability of the Advanced Test Reactor, it is important to have a fast yet accurate deterministic neutronics model. Here, to achieve this, we employed an advanced two-step method. The first step involves generating homogenized cross sections using OpenMC, a cutting-edge Monte Carlo neutron transport code. OpenMC offers excellent modular capabilities, allowing for easy component integration and flexibility in incorporating new designs into the model. The second step involves deterministic transport calculations, which are performed using Griffin, a reactor physics application based on the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). To ensure the accurate spatial resolution and assignment of material cross sections, a Cubit-generated mesh for the Advanced Test Reactor is utilized as an intermediate step between the OpenMC and Griffin models; Griffin utilizes the mesh for its finite element solution, while OpenMC material identifications are written to the mesh file to be used in Griffin material assignments. Additionally, a Python-based script converts the cross sections generated by OpenMC into the ISOXML format required by Griffin. Initial comparisons using the Griffin diffusion solver indicated good agreement between the neutron multiplication factors obtained from the standalone OpenMC model and the Griffin model, with differences of less than 10 pcm in the 2D geometry configuration; it was later determined that this agreement was likely due to compensating effect and was more likely on the order of –700 pcm relative to the OpenMC solution. However, in three-dimensional calculations, an unacceptably large error (almost 8,000 pcm) was found in the Griffin solution with the diffusion solver. Subsequent calculations using Griffin’s discrete ordinates solver demonstrated substantially improved agreement, within 116 pcm of the OpenMC solution used to generate the cross sections for Griffin. Building on this capability, future work will seek to perform more detailed validation calculations. The ultimate goal is to evaluate both transient and multiphysics simulations of the reactor.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-throughput validation of phase formability and simulation accuracy of Cantor alloys

High-throughput methods enable accelerated discovery of novel materials in complex systems such as high-entropy alloys, which exhibit intricate phase stability across vast compositional spaces. Computational approaches, including Density Functional Theory (DFT) and calculation of phase diagrams (CALPHAD), facilitate screening of phase formability as a function of composition and temperature. However, the integration of computational predictions with experimental validation remains challenging in high-throughput studies. In this work, we introduce a quantitative confidence metric to assess the agreement between predictions and experimental observations, providing a quantitative measure of the confidence of machine learning models trained on either DFT or CALPHAD input in accounting for experimental evidence. The experimental dataset was generated via high-throughput in-situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction on compositionally varied FeNiMnCr alloy libraries, heated from room temperature to ~1000 °C. Agreement between the observed and predicted phases was evaluated using either temperature-independent phase classification or a model that incorporates a temperature-dependent probability of phase formation. This integrated approach demonstrates where strong overall agreement between computation and experiment exists, while also identifying key discrepancies, particularly in FCC/BCC predictions at Mn-rich regions to inform future model refinement.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Verification and validation of the open-source plasma fluid code: Zapdos

Zapdos is an open-source finite element plasma fluid solver based on the MOOSE multiphysics framework. This paper outlines Zapdos verification, benchmarking, and validation efforts for 1D and 2D RF capacitively coupled plasma discharge models for mid-range pressures (0.1 - 1 Torr). The verification process involved using the method of manufactured solutions to assess Zapdos spatial and temporal error convergence. L2 errors ranged from 10 -2 to 10 -4 , while the convergence’s slope were in agreement with the predicted slopes for the tested variable and time integration orders. The benchmarking process involved comparisons to previously results from the validated finite element code, LSODI. These works included 1D and 2D simulations for a range of plasma parameters (densities, temperatures, voltage, etc.). For the 1D cases, Zapdos and LSODI results were in very good agreement. In the 2D cases, variable behaviors matched, with slight discrepancies in peak values. The validation process involved comparisons to experimental works including electron density measurements by microwave interferometry and metastable density measurements by planar laser-induced fluorescence imaging. Results shown reasonable agreement at higher pressure, with results starting to diverge at low pressures. Furthermore, probable causes for this diverges are the limitation of the fluid assumption for plasmas at low pressure, or the need for more robust boundary conditions. Overall, Zapdos shown reasonable results for the verification, benchmarking, and validation efforts, and Zapdos can be downloaded at https://github.com/shannon-lab/zapdos.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale, mechanistic modeling of irradiation-enhanced silver diffusion in TRISO particles

Tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particles are under consideration for use in several proposed advanced nuclear reactor concepts. The silicon carbide (SiC) layer in TRISO acts as a barrier to prevent the release of the fission products. However, despite remarkable retention, silver (Ag) release has been observed from intact particles, which requires investigation since the Ag isotope ( 110m Ag) has a long half-life. Previous work focused on developing a multiscale, mechanistic model for Ag diffusion accounting for temperature and microstructure effect and has been successfully validated. In this work, we expand the previous model to account for irradiation-enhanced Ag diffusivity in SiC and improve its accuracy over a wider grain size and temperature ranges relevant for advanced reactor conditions. A temperature, grain size, and flux dependent diffusivity is therefore derived using the mesoscale code MARMOT and implemented in the fuel performance code BISON. The irradiation-enhanced Ag diffusivity in SiC is compared against experimental data and validated using BISON against Ag release measurements from the Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification Program (AGR-1 and AGR-2). Herein, we quantify the impact of SiC grain size, irradiation, and temperature on Ag release. In agreement with previous studies, we find accounting for SiC grain size improves agreement between BISON predictions and experimental observations for most cases. In conclusion, we also find that accounting for irradiation improves agreement for cases where Ag release was underestimated, but the impact was less significant than accounting for microstructure.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Confirming the absence of nuclear warheads via passive gamma-ray measurements

Arms-control agreements between the United States and Russia negotiated after the end of the Cold War have imposed limits on the number of deployed strategic nuclear weapons. Verification of these agreements has relied on onsite inspections, sometimes supported by radiation detection techniques to confirm the absence of a nuclear warhead when ambiguities arise. So far, these measurements have sought to detect neutron emissions associated with the presence of plutonium, but they would be inadequate for uranium devices. In an effort to offer instruments that could be used to confirm the absence of both plutonium and uranium weapons, here we propose an inspection system that uses only passive gamma radiation detection techniques. Such a system would be particularly valuable for next-generation arms-control agreements that limit total numbers of weapons and would involve containerized items in storage. We conducted extensive Monte Carlo simulations to support the development of a verification protocol and detection algorithm. Here, we demonstrate the viability of the technique using standard laboratory check sources and MCNP simulations for simplified configurations of special nuclear material.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2026

Validation of electron backscattering in the MCNP6.3 code

A new electron backscattering validation suite has been developed for the MCNP® code. The calculations in this suite cover both condensed history and single-event transport methods, seven different elemental materials ranging from beryllium to uranium, and incident electron energies from 200 eV to 14.1 MeV. In general, the accuracy of the MCNP code for electron backscattering calculations is energy-dependent. For incident electron energies below 2 keV, the condensed history method is not applied while the single-event method shows poor agreement with experimental measurements due to poor accuracy of the underlying atomic data. For incident energies between 2 keV and 256 keV, the single-event method typically shows better agreement with experiments, while for incident energies above 256 keV the condensed history method gives better accuracy. Additionally, agreement with experimental data is generally worse for low- Z materials such as beryllium and carbon, which may reflect deficiencies in the data or physics underlying electron transport through light elements in the MCNP code. The new electron backscattering validation suite, along with the previously introduced electron stopping power and Lockwood energy deposition validation suites, provide MCNP users with a quantified understanding of the uncertainties in electron transport calculations. Future improvements to electron transport in the MCNP code are necessary for low energies (≤ 2 keV) and for low- Z materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Harmonizing solar induced fluorescence across spatial scales, instruments, and extraction methods using proximal and airborne remote sensing: A multi-scale study in a soybean field

Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has been widely used to track vegetation photosynthesis at different scales ranging from in-situ measurements to satellite products. Airborne platforms sample SIF data at a spatial scale intermediate between in-situ and satellite, matching that of ground measurement (e.g. flux tower footprints and other field sampling), enabling us to explore causes of SIF variation and validate satellite-based SIF products. However, harmonizing SIF across sensors and platforms (correcting for systematic errors to yield a consistent, comparable SIF product) is challenging because SIF can be retrieved in different absorption windows, with different instruments and methods complicating the comparison between different observational levels (i.e., ground, airborne, satellites) and between sites equipped with different instruments with varying optical properties (spectral resolution and sampling intervals, spatial resolution). Additionally, the spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric properties can influence the retrieval of the weak SIF signal. Because of these complications, direct comparisons of airborne and ground SIF across scales are rarely attempted. Here, in this study, we combined airborne SIF data with simultaneous ‘ground truth’ data collected by stationary and mobile platforms in a soybean field in Nebraska, USA. In this effort, we tested several SIF extraction methods, including Fraunhofer Line Discrimination (FLD), improved Fraunhofer Line Discrimination (iFLD), Spectral Fitting Method (SFM), SpecFit, and a Singular Vector Decomposition (SVD) method. The SpecFit method was sensitive to the 715–740 nm water bands and removing the water bands in the fitting process yielded better agreement between the airborne and ground SIF spectra. Accurate estimation of the ground level downwelling irradiance obtained by ground measurements over a calibration target improved agreement between airborne and ground SIF retrievals at the O 2 A band, and allowed us to derive a SIF dataset with improved agreement across platforms and sampling scales. This experimental approach provided a method for generating comparable SIF signals across instruments, methods and platforms, which is critical to understanding the SIF-GPP relationship at different scales and to cross-validate the diversity of platforms used for satellite products calibration and validation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hydrated Anions: From Clusters to Bulk Solution with Quasi-Chemical Theory

The interactions of hydrated ions with molecular and macromolecular solution and interface partners are strong on a chemical energy scale. Here we recount the foremost ab initio theory for the evaluation of the hydration free energies of ions, namely, quasi-chemical theory (QCT). We focus on anions, particularly halides but also the hydroxide anion, because they have been outstanding challenges for all theories. For example, this work supports understanding the high selectivity for F – over Cl – in fluoride-selective ion channels despite the identical charge and the size similarity of these ions. QCT is built by the identification of inner-shell clusters, separate treatment of those clusters, and then the integration of those results into the broader-scale solution environment. Recent work has focused on a close comparison with mass-spectrometric measurements of ion-hydration equilibria. We delineate how ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) calculations on ion-hydration clusters, elementary statistical thermodynamics, and electronic structure calculations on cluster structures sampled from the AIMD calculations obtain just the free energies extracted from the cluster experiments. That theory–experiment comparison has not been attempted before the work discussed here, but the agreement is excellent with moderate computational effort. This agreement reinforces both theory and experiment and provides a numerically accurate inner-shell contribution to QCT. The inner-shell complexes involving heavier halides display strikingly asymmetric hydration clusters. Asymmetric hydration structures can be problematic for the evaluation of the QCT outer-shell contribution with the polarizable continuum model (PCM). Nevertheless, QCT provides a favorable setting for the exploitation of PCM when the inner-shell material shields the ion from the outer solution environment. For the more asymmetrically hydrated, and thus less effectively shielded, heavier halide ions clustered with waters, the PCM is less satisfactory. We therefore investigate an inverse procedure in which the inner-shell structures are sampled from readily available AIMD calculations on the bulk solutions. This inverse procedure is a remarkable improvement; our final results are in close agreement with a standard tabulation of hydration free energies, and the final composite results are independent of the coordination number on the chemical energy scale of relevance, as they should be. Finally, a comparison of anion hydration structure in clusters and bulk solutions from AIMD simulations emphasize some differences: the asymmetries of bulk solution inner-shell structures are moderated compared with clusters but are still present, and inner hydration shells fill to slightly higher average coordination numbers in bulk solution than in clusters.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Prediction of Redox Potentials for Different Oxidation States of U, Np, Pu, and Am in Alkaline Aqueous Solution

The redox potentials for U, Np, Pu, and Am for oxidation states +III up to +VIII in alkaline aqueous solutions were predicted using density functional theory (DFT) and small-core pseudopotentials and their basis sets, with a hybrid explicit/implicit solvent model using SHE = 4.28 V. For each oxidation state, various oxo/hydroxo complexes were evaluated resulting in a variety of one-electron redox pathways. For An(VIII/VII) couples, the predicted redox potentials for the [An(VIII)O 5 (OH)] -3 /[An(VII)O 4 (OH) 2 ] -3 , or [An(VIII)O 4 (OH) 2 ] -2 /[An(VII)O 4 (OH) 2 ] -3 couples are in good agreement with existing estimates. For An(VII/VI) redox couples, all couples, particularly [An(VII)O 4 (OH) 2 ] -3 /[An(VI)O 2 (OH) 4 ] -2 , were in agreement with experimental values for U, Np, and Pu, but the results for Am showed larger differences from the estimated potentials. The An(VI/V) couples were consistent with experiment for dioxo/tetrahydroxo couples, and the An(V/IV) couples showed acceptable agreement based on actinide-specific couples, with neutral hydroxides often favored in the +IV state. The An(IV/III) couples were consistent with literature values when modeled as soluble neutral hydroxides. The use of our approach yielded calculated redox potentials that were within ±0.2 V from experimental or estimated values consistent with our prior calculations on redox potentials of actinides from Ac to Am in acidic aqueous solutions. Finally, as a result, this supports the robustness of our DFT-based methodology for predicting actinide redox potentials, offering valuable insights for actinide chemistry in aqueous solutions.

Actinides↗

DOE OSTI2020

Molecular Structure of Sphingomyelin in Fluid Phase Bilayers Determined by the Joint Analysis of Small-Angle Neutron and X-ray Scattering Data

In this work, we have determined the fluid bilayer structure of palmitoyl sphingomyelin (PSM) and stearoyl sphingomyelin (SSM) by simultaneously analyzing small-angle neutron and X-ray scattering data. Using a newly developed scattering density profile (SDP) model for sphingomyelin lipids, we report structural parameters including the area per lipid, total bilayer thickness, and hydrocarbon thickness, in addition to lipid volumes determined by densitometry. Unconstrained all-atom simulations of PSM bilayers at 55 °C using the C36 CHARMM force field produced a lipid area of 56 Å 2 , a value that is 10% lower than the one determined experimentally by SDP analysis (61.9 Å2). Furthermore, scattering form factors calculated from the unconstrained simulations were in poor agreement with experimental form factors, even though segmental order parameter (S CD ) profiles calculated from the simulations were in relatively good agreement with S CD profiles obtained from NMR experiments. Conversely, constrained area simulations at 61.9 Å 2 resulted in good agreement between the simulation and experimental scattering form factors, but not with S CD profiles from NMR. We discuss possible reasons for the discrepancies between these two types of data that are frequently used as validation metrics for molecular dynamics force fields.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Permafrost, Peatland, and Cropland Regions Are Key to Reconciling North American Carbon Sink Estimates

Persistent discrepancies between bottom-up, terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), and top-down, atmospheric inversions, have made it difficult to quantify the magnitude of the North American terrestrial carbon sink. Previous studies have compared aggregated continent-scale estimates of carbon fluxes from TBMs and inversions for all of North America, but this provides limited insights into finer-scale mismatches that contribute to the overall discrepancies. Here we evaluate agreement between TBM and inversion carbon flux estimates at 1° × 1° resolution to provide more direct insights into where models disagree and what underlying factors drive discrepancies. We find that the additional carbon uptake estimated by inversions, in just 16% of the area of North America, is large enough to account for the discrepancy between TBMs and inversions across the whole continent. The majority of these differences occur in permafrost, peatland, and cropland regions. In these regions, we find a higher likelihood of potential biases in the weaker sink estimates from TBMs, suggesting that the stronger sink implied by inversions is more likely to be realistic. However, the current observational coverage is insufficient for fully assessing the causes of discrepancies or the magnitude of biases in either approach. Encouragingly, improved representation of agricultural processes in a TBM led to better agreement with inversions in croplands. Efforts to accurately model cropland dynamics will help improve agreement between TBMs and inversions. Overall, this work presents a clear path for reconciling the discrepancies between inversion and TBM estimates of the North American carbon sink that have persisted for two decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Critical adjustment of land mitigation pathways for assessing countries' climate progress

Collective progress towards the Paris Agreement’s temperature targets will be assessed by the Agreement’s Global Stocktake process. Global emission pathways by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are a likely benchmark against which aggregated countries’ greenhouse gas mitigation pledges will be assessed. However, this approach requires comparability, which is currently hampered by a 5 GtCO2yr-1 mismatch between the estimated global land anthropogenic flux of IAMs and countries’ GHG inventories (GHGIs) for 2005-2015. We show that this gap is mostly the result of differences in how the anthropogenic forest sink is defined. Countries define managed forest more broadly than IAMs, and on this larger area typically consider anthropogenic also fluxes due to human-induced environmental change, which IAMs do not include their pathways. Using five IAMs and a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), we present and apply a novel method that adjusts IAM results to the countries’ definition, closing the gap with GHGIs at global and regional scale. When expressed in a way compatible with GHGIs, adjusted 1.5°C and well-below 2°C pathways have a cumulative CO2 balance until carbon neutrality that is 110–176 GtCO2 lower than the original IAMs pathways. The use of these country-compatible emission pathways under the Global Stocktake would therefore be essential for an accurate assessment of the collective progress towards the Paris Agreement’s climate goals.

Grassi, Giacomo↗

DOE OSTI2020

Planck 2018 results. VI. Cosmological parameters

In this paper, we present cosmological parameter results from the final full-mission Planck measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies, combining information from the temperature and polarization maps and the lensing reconstruction. Compared to the 2015 results, improved measurements of large-scale polarization allow the reionization optical depth to be measured with higher precision, leading to significant gains in the precision of other correlated parameters. Improved modelling of the small-scale polarization leads to more robust constraints on many parameters, with residual modelling uncertainties estimated to affect them only at the 0.5 σ level. We find good consistency with the standard spatially-flat 6-parameter ΛCDM cosmology having a power-law spectrum of adiabatic scalar perturbations (denoted “base ΛCDM” in this paper), from polarization, temperature, and lensing, separately and in combination. A combined analysis gives dark matter density Ω c h 2 = 0.120 ± 0.001, baryon density Ω b h 2 = 0.0224 ± 0.0001, scalar spectral index n s = 0.965 ± 0.004, and optical depth τ = 0.054 ± 0.007 (in this abstract we quote 68% confidence regions on measured parameters and 95% on upper limits). The angular acoustic scale is measured to 0.03% precision, with 100 θ * = 1.0411 ± 0.0003. These results are only weakly dependent on the cosmological model and remain stable, with somewhat increased errors, in many commonly considered extensions. Assuming the base-ΛCDM cosmology, the inferred (model-dependent) late-Universe parameters are: Hubble constant H 0 = (67.4 ± 0.5) km s –1 Mpc –1 ; matter density parameter Ω m = 0.315 ± 0.007; and matter fluctuation amplitude σ 8 = 0.811 ± 0.006. We find no compelling evidence for extensions to the base-ΛCDM model. Combining with baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements (and considering single-parameter extensions) we constrain the effective extra relativistic degrees of freedom to be N eff = 2.99 ± 0.17, in agreement with the Standard Model prediction N eff = 3.046, and find that the neutrino mass is tightly constrained to Σ m ν < 0.12 eV. The CMB spectra continue to prefer higher lensing amplitudes than predicted in base ΛCDM at over 2 σ , which pulls some parameters that affect the lensing amplitude away from the ΛCDM model; however, this is not supported by the lensing reconstruction or (in models that also change the background geometry) BAO data. The joint constraint with BAO measurements on spatial curvature is consistent with a flat universe, Ω K = 0.001 ± 0.002. Also combining with Type Ia supernovae (SNe), the dark-energy equation of state parameter is measured to be w 0 = –1.03 ± 0.03, consistent with a cosmological constant. We find no evidence for deviations from a purely power-law primordial spectrum, and combining with data from BAO, BICEP2, and Keck Array data, we place a limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r 0.002 < 0.06. Standard big-bang nucleosynthesis predictions for the helium and deuterium abundances for the base-ΛCDM cosmology are in excellent agreement with observations. The Planck base-ΛCDM results are in good agreement with BAO, SNe, and some galaxy lensing observations, but in slight tension with the Dark Energy Survey’s combined-probe results including galaxy clustering (which prefers lower fluctuation amplitudes or matter density parameters), and in significant, 3.6 σ , tension with local measurements of the Hubble constant (which prefer a higher value). Simple model extensions that can partially resolve these tensions are not favoured by the Planck data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗