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At least 253 records · Page 14

Survey of Cyber Risk Analysis Techniques for Use in the Nuclear Industry

Using traditional probabilistic risk analysis methods for severe accident safety risk management on non-digital systems, structures, and components at nuclear power plants is well-established. In contrast, cyber risk analysis of digital assets is still an immature field with unproven techniques due, in part, to the continuously changing threat environment and the challenge of digital assets failing in unexpected ways. As the nuclear fleet continues to adopt digital instrumentation and control systems, it is increasingly important to have effective and efficient cyber risk analysis techniques to support risk management decisions, such as risk elimination by system redesign or risk mitigation by implementation of prioritized security controls. To understand the state of the art in cyber risk analysis for future research, we surveyed 36 publications across ten application domains. We describe our survey methodology and rate each technique based upon scope, adoptability, and repeatability. In this work, we examine the unique constraints of the nuclear industry and outline the strengths and weaknesses of using the cyber risk analysis techniques in the industry, highlighting gaps with current techniques. We also discuss challenges and potential research directions for advancing the science for both existing and new advanced reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Pressing the Approach: A NASA Study of 19 Recent Accidents Yields a New Perspective on Pilot Error

This article begins with a review of two sample airplane accidents that were caused by pilot error. The analysis of these and 17 other accidents suggested that almost all experienced pilot operating in the same environment in which the accident crews were operating and knowing only what the accident crews knew at each moment of the flight, would be vulnerable to making a similar decision and similar errors. Whether a particular crew in a given situation makes errors depends on somewhat random interaction of factors. Two themes that seem to be prevalent in these cases are: Plan Continuation Bias, and Snowballing Workload.

Berman, Benjamin A.↗

Prioritizing Uncertainties in Hydrogen Contribution to Risk in Post-Crash Outcomes for Rail

This report presents analysis from Sandia National Laboratories predicting contributions to risk associated with the use of hydrogen technology for rail. Event sequence diagrams are used to describe possible accident scenarios and progressions. Initiating event frequencies and branch event probabilities for each scenario are quantified with uncertainty using distributions fit to Federal Railroad Administration and U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration data on applicable accidents from 2000 to 2020. Uncertainty is propagated through the event sequence diagram to estimate the frequency and conditional probability of accident end states. The analysis identifies four scenarios with significant contributions to risk from hydrogen that are predicted to occur relatively frequently, which may inform priorities for reducing uncertainty. These scenarios are 1) overpressure events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and delayed ignition, 2) jet fire events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and immediate ignition, 3) jet fires resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and correct operation of the thermally-activated pressure relief device (TPRD) subsequent to the thermal insult, and 4) pressure burst resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and failure of the TPRD. Delayed and immediate hydrogen ignition probabilities are identified as being highly uncertain and potential candidates for reducing conservatism in the predicted frequencies for these two scenarios.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Human Factors in Accidents Involving Remotely Piloted Aircraft

This presentation examines human factors that contribute to RPA mishaps and provides analysis of lessons learned. RPA accident data from U.S. military and government agencies were reviewed and analyzed to identify human factors issues. Common contributors to RPA mishaps fell into several major categories: cognitive factors (pilot workload), physiological factors (fatigue and stress), environmental factors (situational awareness), staffing factors (training and crew coordination), and design factors (human machine interface).

Merlin, Peter William↗

Evaluation of micron size carbon fibers released from burning graphite composites

Quantitative estimates were developed of micron carbon fibers released during the burning of graphite composites. Evidence was found of fibrillated particles which were the predominant source of the micron fiber data obtained from large pool fire tests. The fibrillation phenomena were attributed to fiber oxidation effects caused by the fire environment. Analysis of propane burn test records indicated that wind sources can cause considerable carbon fiber oxidation. Criteria estimates were determined for the number of micron carbon fibers released during an aircraft accident. An extreme case analysis indicated that the upper limit of the micron carbon fiber concentration level was only about half the permissible asbestos ceiling concentration level.

Sussholz, B.↗

Aircraft Loss-of-Control: Analysis and Requirements for Future Safety-Critical Systems and Their Validation

Loss of control remains one of the largest contributors to fatal aircraft accidents worldwide. Aircraft loss-of-control accidents are complex, resulting from numerous causal and contributing factors acting alone or more often in combination. Hence, there is no single intervention strategy to prevent these accidents. This paper summarizes recent analysis results in identifying worst-case combinations of loss-of-control accident precursors and their time sequences, a holistic approach to preventing loss-of-control accidents in the future, and key requirements for validating the associated technologies.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗

SCALE 6.3.1 Radiation Source Terms and Shielding Analysis for a Postulated Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor Accident Scenario

In support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission non–light-water reactor fuel cycle demonstration project, SCALE 6.3.1 capabilities for radiation source term and shielding calculations are demonstrated for scenarios in the sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) fuel cycle. A postulated accident scenario, which consists of a seismic event causing the refueling machine to fall and release a spent fuel assembly inside the containment building (CB), is analyzed in this paper. Radiation source terms were generated for a U/TRU-10Zr metal fuel assembly with a 16.5% initial transuranic waste content and a discharge burnup of approximately 95 GWd/tHM; source terms were also generated for a high-assay low-enriched uranium metal fuel assembly (U-10Zr) with a 16.5% initial enrichment and a discharge burnup of 149.74 GWd/tHM. These radiation source terms were then used to determine the dose rate inside the CB and near the outer surface of the CB for a range of spent fuel assembly cooling times. The dose rate produced by the analyzed SFR assemblies is similar to that produced by a typical pressurized water reactor assembly with a discharge burnup of 50 GWd/MTU. Ultimately, the validation of the source terms predicted for SFRs with SCALE will need to be demonstrated via the use of assay measurements.

Radulescu, Georgeta↗

Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the Ulysses Mission (Tier 2)

This Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) addresses the environmental impacts which may be caused by the preparation and operation of the Ulysses spacecraft, including its planned launch on the Space Transportation System (STS) Shuttle and the alternative of canceling further work on the mission. The launch configuration will use the STS/Inertial Upper Stage (IUS)/Payload Assist Module-Special(PAM-S) combination. The Tier 1 EIS included a delay alternative which considered the Titan 4 launch vehicle as an alternative booster stage for launch in 1991 or later. However, the U.S. Air Force, which procures the Titan 4 for NASA, could not provide a Titan 4 vehicle for the 1991 launch opportunity because of high priority Department of Defense requirements. The only expected environmental effects of the proposed action are associated with normal Shuttle launch operations. These impacts are limited largely to the near-field at the launch pad, except for temporary stratospheric ozone effects during launch and occasional sonic boom effects near the landing site. These effects have been judged insufficient to preclude Shuttle launches. In the event of (1) an accident during launch, or (2) reentry of the spacecraft from earth orbit, there are potential adverse health and environmental effects associated with the possible release of plutonium dioxide from the spacecraft's radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTG). The potential effects considered in this EIS include risks of air and water quality impacts, local land area contamination, adverse health and safety impacts, the disturbance of biotic resources, impacts on wetland areas or areas containing historical sites, and socioeconomic impacts. Intensive analysis of the possible accidents associated with the proposed action are underway and preliminary results indicate small health or environmental risks. The results of a Final Safety Analysis Report will be available for inclusion into the final EIS.

Source record↗

Launch Accident Sequence Evaluation Program

SAND2024-09978O The Launch Accident Sequence Evaluation Program is used to calculate the source term for the consequence analysis involving a launch vehicle accident with a space nuclear system. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Kalinich, Donald↗

Contribution of IAEA coordinated research projects to light water reactors advanced technology fuel testing and simulation

The Fukushima-Daiichi accident in 2011 highlighted the pressing need for enhanced design and safety analysis of nuclear fuels, especially under accident conditions in nuclear power plants (NPPs). To address this need, the international nuclear fuel community has developed several concepts of Accident Tolerant and Advanced Technology Fuels (ATFs) for light water reactors. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), at the request of its Member States, has initiated a series of three Coordinated Research Projects (CRPs) to aid in the development and testing of these ATFs. Further, these projects, known as FUMAC, ACTOF, and ATF-TS, focus on the experimentation and simulation of ATFs under various accident conditions, including design basis accidents and design extension conditions. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the main activities, as well as the achieved or anticipated results of these three CRPs. The insights and advancements gained from these projects will enable IAEA Member States to further refine nuclear fission technology, thereby contributing to efforts aimed at mitigating climate change.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Characterization of Deposits on Glass Substrate as a Tool in Failure Analysis: The Orbiter Vehicle Columbia Case Study

In connection with the accident investigation of the space shuttle Columbia, an analysis methodology utilizing well established microscopic and spectroscopic techniques was implemented for evaluating the environment to which the exterior fused silica glass was exposed. Through the implementation of optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy, energy dispersive spectroscopy, transmission electron microscopy, and electron diffraction, details emerged regarding the manner in which a charred metallic deposited layer formed on top of the exposed glass. Due to nature of the substrate and the materials deposited, the methodology proved to allow for a more detailed analysis of the vehicle breakup. By contrast, similar analytical methodologies on metallic substrates have proven to be challenging due to strong potential for error resulting from substrate contamination. This information proved to be valuable to not only those involved in investigating the break up of Columbia, but also provides a potential guide for investigating future high altitude and high energy accidents.

Olivas, J. D.↗

Water vapor oxidation behaviors of nuclear graphite IG-110 for a postulated accident scenario in high temperature gas-cooled reactors

Water leakage in accidental conditions of high temperature gas-cooled reactors is one of the most critical problems that can compromise the integrity of different nuclear components. In this study, oxidation behaviors of nuclear graphite IG-110 in water ingress accidental conditions were investigated. Mass loss and oxidation rates were evaluated after oxidation tests at temperatures up to 1400 °C in an Ar-20 vol% H 2 O mixed atmosphere. The activation energy decreased from 318.6 to 148.9 kJ/mol with temperature, indicating two different oxidation regimes. The cross-sections of the oxidized samples were systematically characterized. The corresponding logarithmic porosity profiles showed a temperature dependency. Pore formation moved toward near-surface regions with increasing temperature and preferential binder oxidation, with filler particle degradation. Furthermore, oxidant concentration profiles and oxidation depths were estimated using a theoretical model and compared with the experimental results. This work provides important benchmark data and safety analysis guidance for the accident scenario in high temperature gas-cooled reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Conduct and results of the Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Panel's evaluation of the Ulysses space mission

After over a year of detailed independent review, a Safety Evaluation Report (SER) was prepared for the nuclear-powered Ulysses spacecraft mission. An overview is presently given of the Ulysses mission as well as the conduct and results of the evaluation process; in the final analysis, the SER was supportive of a positive launch decision. Eleven key accident scenarios were carried through to complete analysis, out of a total of 19 possible accidents involving a potential for fuel release to the spacecraft environment.

Sholtis, Joseph A., Jr.↗

Coupled Decay Heat and Thermal Hydraulic Capability for Loss-of-Coolant Accident Simulations

As the nuclear energy industry considers ways to achieve improved economics in the current fleet of light-water reactors (LWRs), one possible approach is to operate each cycle for longer durations. This causes a greater portion of the fuel to be burned and reduces the frequency of outages, which ultimately reduces the cost to operate the reactor. However, this also leads to higher burnup fuels than has traditionally been allowed in these reactors. Thus, there are concerns about integrity of high-burnup (HBu) fuel, especially during accident conditions such as loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs), as shown by Capps et al.. To investigate these concerns, advanced modeling and simulation capabilities are being leveraged to determine the susceptibility of HBu fuel to fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersion (FFRD). Improvements have previously been made to fuel performance capabilities to more accurately model these phenomena; multiphysics simulations have also been conducted to determine the power and burnup histories of the HBu fuel, which are needed as inputs for the fuel performance calculations. Most recently, new statistical approaches have been developed to identify a subset of fuel rods that have greater FFRD susceptibility, reducing the total number of fuel performance simulations required. Prior LOCA simulations have relied on the TRACE systems code, which can model the core and primary loop during accident conditions. TRACE includes many models for various aspects of the primary loop, but two sets of models are important for this report. First, TRACE uses a lumped-fuel approach for modeling the core. This approximates the ~50,000 fuel rods in the core with a much smaller number of rods. The rods can be lumped in various ways as determined by the user. For example, one lumped rod may be used to represent all rods in an assembly, sometimes with an additional rod representing the hottest fuel rod. However, due to runtime constraints and complexity of modeling, a more common approach is to group several assemblies or larger regions of the core into single lumped rods. These lumping schemes apply not only to fuel rods but to flow channels as well. Second, TRACE has several different models for treating decay heat, ranging from pregenerated decay heat curves based on an ANSI/ANS-5.1 standard (hereinafter abbreviated simply as ANSI) to explicit time-dependent heat inputs from the user. None of these models account for differences in isotopics between different rods, which is an approximation the work in this report seeks to eliminate. This report focuses on the implementation of coupled decay heat capabilities in the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA) code suite to address a gap identified in previous LOCA simulations. This constitutes an improvement for both the lumped-fuel and decay heat models in TRACE. VERA has been developed to perform high-fidelity, whole-core multiphysics simulations for LWRs. Previously, during the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of LWRs (CASL) program, the emphasis was on providing accurate steady-state analysis—with a secondary focus on reactivity insertion accident (RIA) analysis—to address operational challenges in the nuclear energy industry. Under the Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, these capabilities are being extended to a broader range of transient analyses with the goal of quantifying the risk of fuel failures such as FFRD. To properly model such conditions with VERA, decay heat calculations have been integrated with the multiphysics to enable rod-by-rod thermal hydraulic (TH) conditions to be driven by the decay heat in long-running accidents such as LOCAs.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

AFRRI TRIGA Reactor Neutron and Gamma Dose Characterization Preliminary Results

Integral Experiment Request (IER) 484 is part of a series of dose characterization and nuclear accident dosimeter (NAD) exercises performed under the Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP). The Armed Forces Radiobilogy Research Institute (AFRRI) 1.1 MW Training, Research, Isotopes, General Atomics (TRIGA) Mark-F reactor is the third facility to undergo a dose study to establish reference dose values. A preliminary measurement was performed earlier this year, where a variety of foils were irradiated and activation gamma rays were measured using a high-purity germanium (HPGe) detector. The data was taken and analyzed to calculate the neutron spectrum in the irradiation facility. This paper will present preliminary results of the neutron dose measured. The characterization of the AFRRI dose field is planned in August.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Analysis of inconel 600 oxidized under loss-of-coolant accident conditions: A multi-modal approach

Understanding the performance of cladding materials during a loss-of-coolant accident scenario is crucial for developing next-generation accident tolerant nuclear fuel rod claddings. We describe a multi-modal approach combining synchrotron-based diffraction, and Raman spectroscopy with nano-scale electron microscopy techniques for investigating oxidation of Inconel 600 (A600) in steam and air environments at 1200 °C for 2 h. We report that A600 exposed to steam develops a Cr 2 O 3 -enriched surface layer while a mixed phase oxide layer containing NiFe 2 O 4 , Cr 2 O 3 , Fe 3 O 4 and Fe (3–x) CrxO 4 is formed in air. Mechanism of oxidation for A600 in air and steam environments is discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗