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At least 235 records · Page 13

Bio-fuel effects and seasonal fuel property variations related to abnormal combustion occurrences observed in the field

Since 2015, the automotive industry has regularly observed sharp increases in customer complaints of poor driveability and increased warranty claims during the months of September and October. These persistent seasonal complaint increases have been tracked to occur from increased abnormal combustion events that coincide with the seasonal transition from summer to winter fuel volatility, beginning on September 15th annually. The Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) of gasoline during this seasonal transition has been found to be the primary property attributed to this annual issue. It’s hypothesized that an increase in volatile butanes and pentanes from advanced petroleum recovery techniques and hydrofracking production has hastened the transition from summer to winter fuel volatility in the marketplace, rather than the gradual increase of the RVP over time as historically intended. At worst, mid-winter fuel, with an RVP ranging from 12 to 16 psi, depending on location in the U.S., enters the market while ambient temperatures can still be above average for the winter season. This combination of high volatility fuel with unseasonably warm weather will increase fuel system flash boiling, injector spray cavitation, and spray collapse inside the engine’s combustion chamber, ultimately linking fuel property variations to abnormal engine combustion processes. This CRADA program will investigate these known knowledge gaps by coupling with two national laboratories, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to employ both unique tools and expertise throughout the industry to provide the insight, knowledge, and data critical to understand the observed interactions. Overall findings of this work are that fuel wall retention increased SPI proportionally, and fuels with an increased distillation (i.e. energy fraction) above the wall temperature increased fuel retention. Likewise fuels with increased enthalpy of vaporization (HoV) increased fuel retention proportional to the temperature reduction from the HoV (~13K reduction in this work). Thus, fuel with increased HoV and increased fuel distillation above the linear temperature also exhibited increased SPI rates. Fuel with high RVP did exhibit increased fuel spray collapse form spray imaging measurements, but in SPI testing the high volatility of these fuels at the tested conditions did not necessarily increase SPI rates despite exhibiting increased spray collapse in injector imaging and increased spray-wall impingement measured in fired engine testing. It was also found that spray imaging showed collapse was possible at throttled conditions, but this was not relevant to high boost pressures relevant to SPI conditions, however, under transient load and or speed encountered in real-world operation fuel spray collapse could affect fuel retention and real-world SPI that were not probed in the automated high load test sequence of this work.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Contributions to Polar Amplification in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models

As a step towards understanding the fundamental drivers of polar climate change, we evaluate contributions to polar warming and its seasonal and hemispheric asymmetries in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) as compared with CMIP5. CMIP6 models broadly capture the observed pattern of surface- and winter-dominated Arctic warming that has outpaced both tropical and Antarctic warming in recent decades. For both CMIP5 and CMIP6, CO 2 quadrupling experiments reveal that the lapse-rate and surface albedo feedbacks contribute most to stronger warming in the Arctic than the tropics or Antarctic. The relative strength of the polar surface albedo feedback in comparison to the lapse-rate feedback is sensitive to the choice of radiative kernel, and the albedo feedback contributes most to intermodel spread in polar warming at both poles. By separately calculating moist and dry atmospheric heat transport, we show that increased poleward moisture transport is another important driver of Arctic amplification and the largest contributor to projected Antarctic warming. Seasonal ocean heat storage and winter-amplified temperature feedbacks contribute most to the winter peak in warming in the Arctic and a weaker winter peak in the Antarctic. In comparison with CMIP5, stronger polar warming in CMIP6 results from a larger surface albedo feedback at both poles, combined with less-negative cloud feedbacks in the Arctic and increased poleward moisture transport in the Antarctic. However, normalizing by the global-mean surface warming yields a similar degree of Arctic amplification and only slightly increased Antarctic amplification in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Leveraging Machine Learning and Geo-Tagged Citizen Science Data to Disentangle the Factors of Avian Mortality Events at the Species Level

Abrupt environmental changes can affect the population structures of living species and cause habitat loss and fragmentations in the ecosystem. During August–October 2020, remarkably high mortality events of avian species were reported across the western and central United States, likely resulting from winter storms and wildfires. However, the differences of mortality events among various species responding to the abrupt environmental changes remain poorly understood. In this study, we focused on three species, Wilson’s Warbler, Barn Owl, and Common Murre, with the highest mortality events that had been recorded by citizen scientists. We leveraged the citizen science data and multiple remotely sensed earth observations and employed the ensemble random forest models to disentangle the species responses to winter storm and wildfire. We found that the mortality events of Wilson’s Warbler were primarily impacted by early winter storms, with more deaths identified in areas with a higher average daily snow cover. The Barn Owl’s mortalities were more identified in places with severe wildfire-induced air pollution. Both winter storms and wildfire had relatively mild effects on the mortality of Common Murre, which might be more related to anomalously warm water. Our findings highlight the species-specific responses to environmental changes, which can provide significant insights into the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change and avian conservations. Additionally, the study emphasized the efficiency and effectiveness of monitoring large-scale abrupt environmental changes and conservation using remotely sensed and citizen science data.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Source attribution of near-surface ozone trends in the United States during 1995–2019

Emissions of ozone (O 3 ) precursors in the United States have decreased in recent decades, and near-surface O 3 concentrations showed a significant decrease in summer but an increase in winter. In this study, an O 3 source tagging technique is utilized in a chemistry–climate model to investigate the source contributions to O 3 mixing ratios in the US from various emitting sectors and regions of nitrogen oxides (NO x ) and reactive carbon species during 1995–2019. We show that domestic emission reductions from energy and surface transportation are primarily responsible for the decrease in summertime O 3 during 1995–2019. However, in winter, the emission control also weakens the NO x titration process, resulting in considerable increases in O 3 levels from natural sources. Additionally, increases in aviation and shipping emissions and transpacific transport of O 3 from Asia largely contribute to the winter O 3 increase. We also found that changes in large-scale circulation favoring O 3 transport from the upper atmosphere and foreign transport from Asia also explain 15 % of the increase in the US near-surface O 3 levels in winter.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Rye-soybean double-crop: planting method and N fertilization effects in the North Central US

Double-cropping winter rye cover crops (CC) with soybean in the North Central US could help with the global effort to sustainably intensify agriculture. Studies addressing the management of these systems are limited. Therefore, a field study was conducted from 2017 to 2019 in Central Iowa, US to evaluate winter rye CC biomass production, aboveground N accumulation, estimated economics, estimated within-field energy balance and estimated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under three N application rates (0, 60, 120 kg N ha –1 ) and three planting methods (pre- and post-harvest broadcast and post-harvest drilling). Averaged over N rates, all planting methods resulted in >5.0 Mg ha –1 year –1 rye aboveground biomass dry matter. Averaged over the 2-year study and compared with unfertilized treatments, applying 60 kg N ha –1 produced 1.1 Mg ha –1 more aboveground biomass (6.1 vs 5.0 Mg ha –1 ), accumulated 30 kg ha –1 more N in aboveground biomass (88 vs 58 kg N ha –1 ), and led to 20 GJ ha –1 more net energy. Biomass production was not significantly higher with 120 kg N ha –1 compared with the 60 kg N ha –1 rate. Even when accounting for an estimated 0.75 Mg ha –1 of above ground rye biomass left in the field after harvesting, more N was removed than applied at the 60 kg N ha –1 rate. The minimum rye prices over the 2-year study needed for double-cropping winter rye CC to be profitable (breakeven prices) averaged $117 and $104 Mg –1 for the 0 and 60 kg N ha –1 rates, which factors in estimated soybean yield reductions in 2019 compared with local averages but not off-site transportation. GHG emissions were estimated to increase approximately threefold between the unfertilized and 60 kg N ha –1 rates without considering bioenergy offsets. While environmental tradeoffs need further study, results suggest harvesting fertilized rye CC biomass before planting soybean is a promising practice for the North Central US to maximize total crop and net energy production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Photosynthesis and rhizome carbohydrate concentrations of switchgrass grown from reserve-depleted rhizomes

A long-standing question in perennial grass breeding and physiology is whether yield improvement strategies could compromise winter survival. Perennial grasses rely on the pool of carbohydrates accumulated in storage organs from the previous growing season for winter maintenance and spring regrowth. Yield improvement strategies could reduce winter survival if they increase biomass and grain yields at the expense of carbon allocation to storage. Therefore, it is crucial to better understand the dependence of regrowth on storage reserves. We experimentally depleted switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.) rhizome reserves by storing rhizomes for two weeks at 5 °C (control treatment) and 25 °C (reserve-depleted treatment).

bioenergy↗

Variability in observed stable water isotopes in snowpack across a mountainous watershed in Colorado

In this study, isotopic information from 81 snowpits was collected over a 5-year period in a large, Colorado watershed. Data spans gradients in elevation, aspect, vegetation, and seasonal climate. They are combined with overlapping campaigns for water isotopes in precipitation and snowmelt, and a land-surface model for detailed estimates of snowfall and climate at sample locations. Snowfall isotopic inputs, describe the majority of δ18O snowpack variability. Aspect is a secondary control, with slightly more enriched conditions on east and north facing slopes. This is attributed to preservation of seasonally enriched snowfall and vapour loss in the early winter. Sublimation, expressed by decreases in snowpack d-excess in comparison to snowfall contributions, increases at low elevation and when seasonal temperature and solar radiation are high. At peak snow accumulation, post-depositional fractionation appears to occur in the top 25 ± 14% of the snowpack due to melt-freeze redistribution of lighter isotopes deeper into the snowpack and vapour loss to the atmosphere during intermittent periods of low relative humidity and high windspeed. Relative depth of fractionation increases when winter daytime temperatures are high and winter precipitation is low. Once isothermal, snowpack isotopic homogenization and enrichment was observed with initial snowmelt isotopically depleted in comparison to snowpack and enriching over time. The rate of δ18O increase (d-excess decrease) in snowmelt was 0.02‰ per day per 100-m elevation loss. Isotopic data suggests elevation dictates snowpack and snowmelt evolution by controlling early snow persistence (or absence), isotopic lapse rates in precipitation and the ratio of energy to snow availability. Hydrologic tracer studies using stable water isotopes in basins of large topographic relief will require adjustment for these elevational controls to properly constrain stream water sourcing from snowmelt.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Energy‐Water Asynchrony Principally Determines Water Available for Runoff From Snowmelt in Continental Montane Forests

ABSTRACT Changes in the volume, rate, and timing of the snowmelt water pulse have profound implications for seasonal soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), groundwater recharge, and downstream water availability, especially in the context of climate change. Here, we present an empirical analysis of water available for runoff using five eddy covariance towers located in continental montane forests across a regional gradient of snow depth, precipitation seasonality, and aridity. We specifically investigated how energy‐water asynchrony (i.e., snowmelt timing relative to atmospheric demand), surface water input intensity (rain and snowmelt), and observed winter ET (winter AET) impact multiple water balance metrics that determine water available for runoff (WAfR). Overall, we found that WAfR had the strongest relationship with energy‐water asynchrony (adjusted r 2 = 0.52) and that winter AET was correlated to total water year evapotranspiration but not to other water balance metrics. Stepwise regression analysis demonstrated that none of the tested mechanisms were strongly related to the Budyko‐type runoff anomaly (highest adjusted r 2 = 0.21). We, therefore, conclude that WAfR from continental montane forests is most sensitive to the degree of energy‐water asynchrony that occurs. The results of this empirical study identify the physical mechanisms driving variability of WAfR in continental montane forests and are thus broadly relevant to the hydrologic management and modelling communities.

Webb, Ryan William↗

Phosphorus and cover crop management practices affect phosphorus speciation in soils and eroded sediments

Abstract Agricultural runoff often contains P in dissolved and sediment‐bound forms, decreasing surface water quality. No‐till and cover cropping conservation practices have been recommended for reducing erosion and nutrient loss from cropping systems. The overall aims of this study were to characterize and evaluate the effects of fertilizer (placement and source) and cover crop management on P speciation in surface runoff sediments and source soil. In 2014, a field‐scale experiment was established in a no‐till, corn (Zea maysL.)–soybean (Glycine maxL.) cropping system with two cover crop treatments (with and without a winter crop; winter wheat [Triticum aestivumL.], rapeseed [Brassica napusL.], hairy vetch [Vicia villosaRoth], winter triticale [×Triticosecale Wittm.], and cereal rye [Secale cerealeL.]) and three P fertilizer management treatments (no P, fall broadcast diammonium phosphate, and spring subsurface injected ammonium polyphosphate). Phosphorus fractionation in the source soil collected in the fall of 2019 and sediment samples collected throughout 2020 were analyzed using a modified sequential P extraction method to evaluate the cumulative effects of imposing the treatment factors over 5 years. The direct P speciation was done using X‐ray absorption near edge structure spectroscopy. The indirect P speciation (fractionation) results showed that the management practices affected the exchangeable, organic matter‐associated, and Fe‐bound P fractions in sediments and the exchangeable and residual fractions in source soil. Direct P speciation results showed a depletion of Fe‐associated P in soil and sediment from cover crop treatment, suggesting that Fe‐associated P species were affected by cover crops. Changes in soil and runoff sediment P speciation would change the proportions and forms of soluble and particulate P in runoff sediments and may influence P bioavailability in aquatic ecosystems. Developing P fertilizer and cropping system management options with an understanding of soil P transformations helps maintain environmental sustainability.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Seasonal drivers of dissolved oxygen across a tidal creek–marsh interface revealed by machine learning

Abstract Dissolved oxygen (DO) is a key biogeochemical control in coastal systems, and its concentration and drivers vary markedly through time and space. This makes it difficult to accurately represent coastal DO and associated biogeochemical processes in models, limiting our ability to predict how these systems will respond to global change. We obtained high‐frequency (5‐min) in situ measurements of DO collected at three locations across the interface of a tidal creek and coastal marsh in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Random Forest machine learning models quantified the importance of three categories of environmental drivers (Aquatic, Climatic, and Terrestrial) of DO variability across the creek–marsh interface. We selected two 4‐month datasets representing Summer and Winter seasonal periods to test two hypotheses on the dominant drivers of DO at the coastal interface. We found that the Terrestrial driver—characterized by long periods of anaerobic conditions and episodic pulses in DO after floods—was most important during the Winter, whereas the Aquatic driver—characterized by variability over tidal, diel, and lunar cycles—was most important during the Summer. We explored how future climate change scenarios could alter the drivers of DO variability using a cumulative sums driver–response framework. Our results suggest that under climate change, Aquatic and Climatic drivers may increase in importance during the Summer, potentially linked to changing metabolic regimes and sea level, with Terrestrial driver importance potentially increasing during the Winter. Our approach highlights useful methods for understanding the spatiotemporal complexity of oxygen across coastal interfaces and quantifying the relative importance of distinct environmental drivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dredged sediments contain potentially beneficial microorganisms for agriculture and little harmful cyanobacteria

Soils worldwide are degrading, raising concerns about our ability to feed the growing global population. Soil amendments that can alleviate degradation are gaining attention. The application of sediments dredged from waterways to agricultural fields has increasing promise as a means for improving degraded soils. However, herbaceous plant species may have difficulty establishing on dredged material because of low nutrient availability, inhibitory levels of toxins, unsuitable moisture conditions and lack of microorganisms capable of ameliorating these characteristics. To counteract these issues, we sought to understand if the use of a cover crop would increase the abundance, diversity and function of beneficial soil microorganisms compared to harmful microorganisms in dredged sediments. We collected soil samples from two 100% dredged sediment plots, one where winter cereal rye (Secale cereal) was grown as a winter cover crop and one left fallow over the winter, followed by traditional corn (Zea mays) planting. We sampled both plots three times during the growing season: before cover crop application, following cover crop application but before corn planting and following final corn harvest. We then used high-throughput sequencing to identify the bacterial and fungal communities present in the samples. Our data show that cover crop application did not alter the microbial community in these plots. However, sampling time decreased species diversity and altered the composition of both fungal and bacterial communities recovered from these plots. Across both plots, microorganisms associated with carbon cycling were more abundant than those associated with harmful effects, including microcystin-producing cyanobacteria, which were an extremely small portion of the overall community. Our work suggests that dredged sediments have the potential to improve soil function through the addition of microorganisms associated with nutrient cycling, but a cover crop is not necessary to incur these benefits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seasonal variation of the surface cross-shelf exchange in the northern South China Sea: a Lagrangian perspective

Previous studies on cross-shelf exchange, predominantly adopted an Eulerian perspective, struggled to identify water sources and pathways. Using a high-resolution regional ocean modeling system (ROMS) and Lagrangian particle tracking, this study systematically investigates the seasonal variation and dynamics of surface cross-shelf exchange in the northern South China Sea (NSCS) from a Lagrangian perspective. Based on daily released 30-day drifter trajectories we identify the key pathways, source regions for surface cross-shelf exchange, revealing pronounced seasonal variability. Results show the surface cross-shelf exchange generally following monsoon-driven Ekman transport. However, local dynamics, especially topographic modulation, can outweigh the expected Ekman-driven transport, producing surface exchange patterns opposite to that predicted from the prevailing winds. Topographic effects vary across different scales. In the coastal waters of western Guangdong during winter, despite downwelling-favorable winds, the modulation of alongshore currents by island topography induces an eastward pressure gradient. This gradient, through geostrophic balance, drives offshore flows opposite to wind-driven Ekman onshore transport. Furthermore, the eastern widened shelf exhibits a distinct seasonal variation of cross-shelf exchange, with strong offshore transport (opposite to the direction of Ekman transport) in winter and exceedingly weak exchange in summer. Analysis of the underlying mechanisms reveals that this winter offshore transport is primarily attributed to geostrophic flows driven by surface pressure gradient that is jointly modulated by the Kuroshio intrusion and local widened shelf topography, and enhanced by cumulative submesoscale processes. In summer, a persistent and strong along-isobath jet acts as a dynamic barrier, effectively suppressing the exchange. These findings highlight the important role of topography in regulating surface material transport, and have important implications for predicting the advection and dispersion of plankton or oil spills over the continental shelf influenced by monsoon.

Hao, Dongliang↗

Use of abandoned structures by Przewalski’s wild horses and other wildlife in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone

Przewalski’s wild horses (Equus ferus przewalski) are an endangered species and current conservation efforts aim to maintain genetic diversity and reintroduce wild populations. From 1998-2004, 36 Przewalski’s horses were introduced in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone (CEZ) with no subsequent direct management, and current population size and genetic diversity are unknown. We used remote cameras positioned at the entrance of abandoned structures within the CEZ to elucidate visitation of these structures by Przewalski’s horses and other large mammals to assess the use of this method for monitoring the horse population within the CEZ. We estimated frequency of structure use in winter (Nov 2016 – Feb 2017) and summer (Mar 2018 – Oct 2018) periods and estimated basic group characteristics such as group type (all male vs. mixed sex), group size, and number of foals. Przewalski’s horses were detected 35 times at 9 of 10 monitored structures in winter and 149 times at all 8 monitored structures in summer. Eight other mammalian species were documented using abandoned structures. Mixed sex groups of horses contained 5.30 ± 0.25 adults and 1.00 ± 0.12 foals (Mean± S.E.). Furthermore, all-male groups contained 1.59 ± 0.15 individuals. Our data suggest Przewalski’s horses routinely use abandoned structures in the CEZ with visitation patterns tending to be nocturnal in winter and crepuscular in summer. Congregation of horses in these structures could have implications for future monitoring of the population by providing detailed information on demographics, population size, and genetic diversity which would benefit management plans for this population and provide a baseline for future work.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

County-level assessment of behind-the-meter solar and storage to mitigate long duration power interruptions for residential customers

Customer concerns over electric system resilience could drive early adoption of behind-the-meter solar-plus-storage (BTM PVESS), especially as wildfire, hurricane, and other climate-driven risks to electric grids become more pronounced. However, the resilience benefits of BTM PVESS are poorly understood, especially for residential customers, owing to lack of data and methodological challenges, making it difficult to forecast adoption trends. In this paper, we develop a methodology to model the performance of BTM PVESS in providing backup power across a wide range of customer types, geography / climate conditions, and long duration power interruption scenarios, considering both whole-building backup and backup of specific critical loads. We combine novel, disaggregated end-use load profiles across the continental United States with temporally and geospatially aligned solar generation estimates. We then implement a PVESS dispatch algorithm to calculate the amount of load served during interruptions. We find that PVESS with 10 kWh of storage can meet a limited set of critical loads in most United States counties during any month of the year, though this capability drops to meeting only 86% of critical load, averaged across all counties and months, when heating and cooling are considered critical. Backup performance is lowest in winter months where electric heat is common (southeast and northwest U.S.) and in summer months in places with large cooling loads (southwest and southeast U.S.). Winter backup performance varies by roughly 20% depending on infiltration rates, while summer performance varies by close to 15% depending on the efficiency of the central air-conditioning system. Differences in temperature set-points in Harris County correspond to a 40% range in winter backup performance and a 20% range in summer performance. Economic calculations show that a customer’s resilience value of PVESS must be high to motivate adoption of these systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Repeated freeze-thaw cycles increase extractable, but not total, carbon and nitrogen in a Maine coniferous soil

Northeastern North America has been experiencing warmer winters with reduced snow accumulation, with more frequent winter freeze-thaw cycles. We conducted a laboratory experiment to investigate how increased frequency of freeze-thaw cycles (FTC) would alter soil C and N availability. Organic (O) and mineral (B) horizon soils were collected from a coniferous forest in Maine, processed to exclude roots, and then frozen in the laboratory (-10 °C) with one (FTC-1), two (FTC-2), or six (FTC-6) thaw periods. Soils were analyzed for extractable inorganic ammonium (NH4-N), water extractable organic carbon (WEOC), carbon dioxide flux (respiration), and total C and N. Extractable NH4-N increased following FTC, for both horizons. WEOC in O horizons had a lower SUVA254, indicating a stronger microbial influence (i.e., microbial cell lysis) in these soils after FTC. Respiration in O horizon soils decreased post-incubation and did not differ between FTC and Control soils. In the B horizon, however, FTC soils showed greater respiration than Control soils, suggesting that the newly available nutrients may have stimulated microbial activity. In contrast to these results, total C and N remained unaltered by FTC, presumably because the FTC disturbances represented mostly a translocation of C and N from one pool into another, and losses due to respiration were too small to significantly influence the large TC and TN pools. The effect of FTC on NH4-N did not change with FTC frequency, suggesting that a single FTC is sufficient to alter both C and N availability and quality, and that additional FTC may not have a significant further effect. This study provides fresh insights on how organic and mineral soils might respond to increased freeze-thaw frequency in winter.

Patel, Kaizad F.↗

Using Large Ensembles to Identify Regions of Systematic Biases in Moderate-to-Heavy Daily Precipitation

Because of internal variability in both the real-world and global climate models, it is unclear whether disagreement between models and observations reflects true systematic differences, or different phasing of internal variability in the short observational period. Here, we address this issue through an examination of moderate-to-heavy precipitation in large ensembles of global climate models. We find that model inconsistency with a global observational product is lowest for extratropical precipitation in northern hemisphere winter. The inconsistency is systematically greater for the southern hemisphere winter, but the difference between hemispheres could be due to observational quality. Moderate-to-heavy extratropical winter precipitation is less inconsistent than moderate-to-heavy tropical precipitation in most models. Within the tropics, moderate-to-heavy precipitation is particularly inconsistent with the reference in regions including the Caribbean (especially during JJA), the northern and southern flanks of the Pacific and Atlantic ITCZ, and the Indian Ocean.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Global Teleconnection Signature of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Its Modulation by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

Recent research has suggested that the tropical and extratropical character of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) depends on the state of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). With this in mind, we use both reanalysis and a global climate model (CESM2-WACCM) to analyze the global character of upper tropospheric-lower stratospheric geopotential height anomalies connected with the MJO and quantify dependencies of these teleconnections on the state of the QBO. We find that the global teleconnection signature of the MJO depends upon the state of the QBO. Globally, within reanalysis the fraction of 20- to 90-day 250-hPa geopotential height variance linked to the MJO is largest during boreal winter and summer for easterly QBO phases and smallest during westerly QBO phases of boreal winter. The difference between QBO phases is mostly driven by changes in the tropical signature of the MJO, although during boreal winter the Northern Hemispheric teleconnections are particularly more prominent during easterly QBO phases. Otherwise, the QBO modulation of extratropical MJO teleconnections is mainly realized through changes in the locations of the teleconnections. A QBO-MJO relationship is also apparent within CESM2-WACCM but is weaker than that observed. This extratropical modulation implies that the regions that benefit from increased subseasonal predictability due to the MJO may also change as a function of the QBO. In a broader sense, these findings emphasize that knowledge of the tropical stratospheric state, particularly as it relates to the QBO, is important for understanding the connections between the MJO and the extratropics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗