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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1998

Emission Lines and the High Energy Continuum

Quasars show many striking relationships between line and continuum radiation whose origins remain a mystery. FeII, [OIII], Hbeta, and HeII emission line properties correlate with high energy continuum properties such as the relative strength of X-ray emission, and X-ray continuum slope. At the same time, the shape of the high energy continuum may vary with luminosity. An important tool for studying global properties of Quasi Stellar Objects (QSOs) is the co-addition of data for samples of QSOS. We use this to show that X-ray bright (XB) QSOs show stronger emission lines in general, but particularly from the narrow line region. The difference in the [OIII]/Hbeta ratio is particularly striking, and even more so when blended FeII emission is properly subtracted. Weaker narrow forbidden lines ([OII] and NeV) are enhanced by factors of 2 to 3 in both UV and optical XB composite spectra. The physical origin of these diverse and interrelated correlations has yet to be determined. Unfortunately, many physically informative trends intrinsic to QSOs may be masked by dispersion in the data due to either low signal-to-noise or variability. An important tool for studying global properties of QSOs is the co-addition of data for samples of QSOS. We use this to show that X-ray bright (XB) QSOs show stronger emission lines in general, but particularly from the narrow line region. The difference in the [OIII]/Hbeta ratio is particularly striking, and even more so when blended Fell emission is properly subtracted. Weaker narrow forbidden lines ([OII] and NeV) are enhanced by factors of 2 to 3 in both UV and optical XB composite spectra. We describe a large-scale effort now underway to probe these effects in large samples, using both data and analysis as homogeneous as possible. Using an HST FOS Atlas of QSO spectra, with primary comparison to ROSAT PSPC spectral constraints, we will model the Big Blue Bump, its relationship to luminosity and QSO type, and we will analyze and contrast line emission and UV/X-ray continuum properties. Absorption of the continuum near the broad emission line region may play a profound role, which we will be able to constrain by direct analysis of observed UV/X-ray spectral absorption.

Green, Paul↗
NASA NTRS1994

Phytochrome-mediated responses: Implications for controlled environment research facilities

Light is undoubtedly the most important environmental variable for plant growth and development; plants not only use radiant energy in photosynthesis, they also respond to the quantity, quality, direction and timing of incident radiation through photomorphogenic response that can have huge effects on the rate of growth and the pattern of development. It is surprising, therefore, that the manufacturers and suppliers of controlled environment facilities have been singularly uninventive in the design of the lighting assemblies they provide. The consumer has one choice only - a lighting assembly that provides irradiance levels usually only a fraction of sunlight, and a control system that is limited to regulating the timing of the on-off switch. The reasons for these limitations are partly technological, but in the main they result from ignorance on the part of both the consumer and the manufacturer. A specific and powerful example of this ignorance relates to the importance of the so-called far-red wavelengths (FR = 700-800 nm). Because the human eye can hardly detect wavelengths above 700 nm, and photosynthesis also cuts off at about 700 nm, the majority of plant and crop physiologists are still almost completely unaware that FR radiation can have massive effects on growth rate and development. In consequence, most growth cabinets have light sources based on fluorescent tubes, and provide very little FR apart from that emitted by a token number of small incandescent bulbs. Larger growth facilities often use broader spectrum light sources, but growth facilities that provide the capability to vary the FR incident upon the plants are about as abundant as seals in the Sahara. This article sets the background of the significance of FR radiation in the natural environment and its importance for plant growth and development in the hope that it might inform intelligently those concerned with improving the design of plant growth facilities.

Smith, Harry↗
NASA NTRS2022

Northeast US Ecological Forecasting: Modeling Invasive Plant Habitat Suitability to Support Management Efforts in the American Northeast

Invasive plant species threaten environmental and economic interests when they spread into new areas, outcompete native species, and disrupt ecosystem services. If the spread is not controlled early, species can become well-established and increasingly difficult to manage. The National Park Service (NPS) Invasive Plant Management Teams (IPMTs) strive for an “early detection, rapid response” approach to reducing invasive species spread. Management teams can better prioritize their work with the help of species distribution models (SDMs), which map habitat suitability by combining species occurrences with environmental predictor variables. Scarce invaded range data for newly arrived invasive species presents a particular challenge for producing accurate models. To improve future modeling efforts, this project compared SDM methods using different spatial scales to model two plant species invasive to the Northeast US: the well-established Japanese stiltgrass (Microstegium vimineum) and newer invasive species wavyleaf basketgrass (Oplismenus undulatifolius). The team used NASA Earth observations and climate datasets to model occurrence data and predictor layers at a US-specific extent (90m2 spatial resolution) and global extent (1 km2 spatial resolution). Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) provided data for US Normalized Difference Moisture Indices (NDMI), while global NDMI and topographic predictor layers were derived from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The resulting models indicated important predictor variables for each species and explored the benefits and tradeoffs of using global data to model habitat suitability for new-arrival invasive species.

Rebecca Ohman↗
NASA NTRS2017

Synthetic Scenarios from CMIP5 Model Simulations for Climate Change Impact Assessments in Managed Ecosystems and Water Resources: Case Study in South Asian Countries

Increasing population, urbanization, and associated demand for food production compounded by climate change and variability have important implications for the managed ecosystems and water resources of a region. This is particularly true for south Asia, which supports one quarter of the global population, half of whom live below the poverty line. This region is largely dependent on monsoon precipitation for water. Given the limited resources of the developing countries in this region, the objective of our study was to empirically explore climate change in south Asia up to the year 2099 using monthly simulations from 35 global climate models (GCMs) participating in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) for two future emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and provide a wide range of potential climate change outcomes. This was carried out using a three-step procedure: calculating the mean annual, monsoon, and non-monsoon precipitation and temperatures; estimating the percent change from historical conditions; and developing scenario funnels and synthetic scenarios. This methodology was applied for the entire south Asia region; however, the percent change information generated at 1.5deg grid scale can be used to generate scenarios at finer spatial scales. Our results showed a high variability in the future change in precipitation (-23% to 52%, maximum in the non-monsoon season) and temperature (0.8% to 2.1%) in the region. Temperatures in the region consistently increased, especially in the Himalayan region, which could have impacts including a faster retreat of glaciers and increased floods. It could also change rivers from perennial to seasonal, leading to significant challenges in water management. Increasing temperatures could further stress groundwater reservoirs, leading to withdrawal rates that become even more unsustainable. The high precipitation variability (with higher propensity for localized intense rainfall events) observed in the region can be a key factor for managed ecosystems and water management and could also lead to more incidence of severe urban flooding. The results could be used to assess both mitigation and adaptation alternatives to reduce vulnerabilities in managed ecosystems (agricultural and urban) and water resources.

agriculture↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying the impact of climate change on erosion - 20397

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is the owner of the Western New York Nuclear Service Center (WNYNSC), a 1,351-ha (3,338-ac) site located approximately 48 km (30 mi) south of Buffalo, New York. In 1962, Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc. (NFS) entered into Agreements with the Atomic Energy Commission and New York State to construct the first commercial reprocessing plant of nuclear fuel in the United States. NFS, a private company, built and operated the spent fuel reprocessing plant and waste disposal facilities, processing 640 Mg (metric tons, or 705 short tons) of spent nuclear fuel from 1966 to 1972 under an Atomic Energy Commission license. Nuclear fuel reprocessing operations ended in 1972 and never reopened, leaving behind radioactive and chemical wastes. Erosion can play an important role in the fate and transport of waste at sites where disposal of long-lived waste is anticipated. The statistical characterization of key processes related to erosion is essential to the understanding of site stability through time. One of the key processes governing erosion is extreme precipitation and it is critical that trends in the distribution of extreme precipitation events through time be represented. The evidence of climate change is increasingly well documented and projected impacts on extreme precipitation events should be incorporated in performance assessment studies when relevant. Not evaluating future climate states in a performance assessment is contradictory to good modeling practice. Specifically, excluding climate change limits development of modeling information that could aid in effective decision making. The current climate literature provides both observational evidence and climate model projections of climate trends and/or climate change in the late 20. and early 21. centuries for North America and the northeast United States. In this work, this information was used to assess the impacts of potential changes in climate on erosion processes. The goal was to understand how projections of future climate relate to the performance of the WNYNSC through time. In the first stage of this work multi-temporal historical aerial images were analyzed in conjunction with orthophotography and Lidar data to develop probability distributions for variables representing important erosion processes. The information from these analyses was then used in conjunction with simulated data from the West Valley Erosion Working Group (EWG). Analysis of EWG simulations provides estimates for the change in erosion rates through time that is driven by changes in climate. The time-varying rates of erosion change were applied to the historical aerial imagery data in order to inform time-varying rates of erosion that are driven by changes in climate. Ultimately, this process resulted in the identification of locations for features like gully heads using both the Lidar dataset and projection of the estimated location from the historical aerial photo under consideration back to the Lidar dataset. The distance between the estimate of the location from the historical image and that of the Lidar dataset was the estimated distance the feature has moved. This distance was then divided by the number of years between the Lidar dataset and the year of the historical aerial image of interest to get a rate of movement through time. This was done for several dozen points on each historical aerial image. The analyses from the EWG were used to characterize the relative impact of climate change on the erosion rates. This relative impact was quantified by comparing the LEM based estimates of erosion that were derived using historical climate data with LEM based estimates of erosion that were derived using projections of future climate. The relative increase in the erosion rates was then applied to the historical estimates of erosion derived from the analysis of the historical aerial imagery. This approach was used since the LEM-based estimated of the historical erosion rates from the past century have a bias towards underestimating erosion. This underestimation is hypothesized to be a consequence of an inability of the LEMs to account for the impacts of land-use change (i.e. deforestation) which had been shown to significantly increase erosion in similar Northern hardwood forest ecosystems. In summary, gully head retreat rate and gully widening rate were characterized using statistical probability distributions from the historical aerial image analysis. Simulated data from the EWG was used to estimate the climatically-driven changes in erosion rates through time. The changes through time from the EWG were applied to the gully head retreat rate and gully widening rate characterized using the historical aerial image analysis. This information can be used to inform PPA models to project future risks from a given site. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

An efficient hybrid downscaling framework to estimate high-resolution river hydrodynamics

Flow depth and velocity are the most important hydrodynamic variables that govern various river functions, including water resources, navigation, sediment transport, and biogeochemical cycling. Existing high-resolution flow depth simulations rely on either computationally expensive river hydrodynamic models (RHMs) or data-driven models with formidable training costs, whereas data-driven modeling of flow velocity has rarely been explored. Here, using the hybrid Low-fidelity, Spatial analysis, and Gaussian process learning (LSG) model, we developed a downscaling approach to construct high-resolution flow depth and velocity from a two-dimensional (2-D) RHM simulation at coarse resolution. The LSG models were trained and tested in an urban watershed in Houston using two different hurricane-driven flood events. The high-resolution (as fine as 30 m resolution) and low-resolution (mostly 1000 m resolution) meshes include 664 724 and 14 536 grid cells, respectively. The results showed that through downscaling, the simulation errors were reduced to less than one-fourth and one-third of the errors of the low-resolution 2-D RHM for flow depth and velocity, respectively. Our analysis further revealed that the dominant uncertainty sources of the downscaled hydrodynamics are different, with flow velocity dominated by the dimensionality reduction error, which we reduced by using a regionalized training procedure. The downscaling approach achieves an 84-fold acceleration in computational time compared to the high-resolution 2-D RHM, making high-fidelity ensemble flood modeling feasible. More importantly, the developed method provides an opportunity to couple large-scale hydrodynamical processes with local physical, chemical, and biological processes in river models.

Tan, Zeli [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of energetics and economics of sub-ambient hybrid post-combustion carbon dioxide capture

Adsorption of CO 2 from post-combustion flue gas is one of the leading candidates for globally impactful carbon capture systems. In this report, work focused on understanding the opportunities and limitations of sub-ambient CO 2 capture processes utilizing a multistage separation process. A hybrid process design using a combination of pressure-driven separation of CO 2 from flue gas (e.g., adsorption- or membrane-based separation) followed by CO 2 -rich product liquefaction to produce high-purity (>99%) CO 2 at pipeline conditions is considered. The operating pressure of the separation unit is a key cost parameter and also an important process variable that regulates the available heat removal necessary to reach the sub-ambient operating conditions. The economic viability of applying pressure swing adsorption (PSA) processes using fiber sorbent contactors with internal heat management was found to be most influenced by the productivity of the adsorption system, with productivities as high as 0.015 mol CO2 /kg sorb -1 sec -1 being required to reduce costs of capture below $60/ton CO 2 captured. This analysis was carried out using a simplified two-bed process, and thus there is opportunity for further cost reduction with exploration of more complex cycle designs. Three exemplar fiber sorbents (MIL-101(Cr), UiO-66, and zeolite 13X) were considered for application in the sub-ambient process of PSA unit. Among the considered sorbents, zeolite 13X fiber composites were found to perform better at ambient temperatures as compared to sub-ambient. MIL-101(Cr) and UiO-66 fiber composites had improved purity, recovery, and productivity at colder temperatures reducing costs of capture as low as $61/ton CO 2 . Future economic improvement could be achieved by reducing the required operating pressure of the PSA unit and pushing the Pareto frontier closer to the final pipeline requirement via a combination of PSA cycle design and material selection.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling of deposit formation in mesoporous substrates via atomic layer deposition: Insights from pore‐scale simulation

Atomic layer deposition (ALD) has been a promising technique in fabricating membranes and tuning their properties with a precision at the atomic level. Fabrication of zeolitic imidazolate framework (ZIF) membranes using the ligand-induced permselectivation (LIPS) method starts with the formation of an oxide in a mesoporous substrate by ALD and is followed by the transformation of this oxide to ZIF using imidazolate vapor treatment. The objective of the ALD step is to block the mesopores with a thin deposit, that is, one with small penetration depth and small thickness on the top surface of the substrate. Unlike typical ALD on nonporous substrates, where all available sites react per ALD cycle, thin deposit formation in a mesoporous substrate requires that only a small fraction of the available deposition sites (i.e., close to the substrate surface) is subjected to ALD. Consequently, reactant dosing and duration of pulses are important process variables which, together with diffusion and reaction kinetics determine the deposit structure. Quantitative understanding of the interplay of these variables and phenomena can enable the rational design of ALD within mesoporous substrates. Here, we extend our earlier modeling effort considering the coexistence of ALD both inside the pores and on the external surface of the substrate. Finite-volume based models were developed and validated to simulate the two distinct modes of deposition cycle by cycle. The total mass uptake of the substrate with ALD cycles can be predicted using the combined surface deposition and pore reaction–diffusion models as affirmed by in situ quartz crystal microbalance experimental data. The ALD reactor model combined with the deposition model can accurately capture the number of ALD cycles needed to block the pores of the substrate. Based on the model, we designed a modified ALD process and examined the performance of the corresponding LIPS membranes. Furthermore, the present modeling work provides a new understanding of the deposit formation via ALD within mesoporous substrates for a variety of membrane applications.

atomic layer deposition↗
DOE OSTI2022

Riverscape heterogeneity in estimated Chinook Salmon emergence phenology and implications for size and growth

Abstract Many salmonid‐bearing rivers exhibit thermal and hydrologic heterogeneity at multiple spatial and temporal scales, but how this translates into spatiotemporal patterns of fry emergence is poorly understood. Understanding this variability is important because emergence timing determines the biophysical conditions fish first experience (e.g., temperature, flow, and food supply), thereby influencing growth opportunities and survival during this critical life stage. We predicted spring Chinook Salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) emergence phenology across four northeastern Oregon subbasins over 5–9 years using empirical spawning and temperature data. We then related interannual emergence timing estimates to juvenile salmon size and growth rates at consistent sampling locations. There were clear longitudinal patterns of predicted emergence timing in each subbasin: The shape of these patterns was consistent among years, but not among subbasins. In two subbasins, emergence occurred progressively later with distance upstream, whereas in the other two subbasins emergence was earliest at upstream sites. Within each year, median emergence dates among sites within each subbasin ranged between 44 and 58 days. This spatial variation was comparable to interannual variation, with median emergence dates for a given location in each subbasin ranging between 47 and 74 days among years. Contrary to our expectations, juvenile salmon were not larger in years with earlier emergence, owing to slower estimated spring and summer growth rates compared to years with later emergence. Despite large interannual variation in estimated emergence dates, these results suggest that other factors (e.g., stream flow, temperature, and density‐dependence) were more important than growth duration in determining juvenile salmon growth rates and size among years. We demonstrated considerable spatial and interannual variation in emergence phenology within these subbasins. Understanding how this variation translates to spatiotemporal patterns of juvenile salmon habitat use, growth, and survival has important implications for guiding restoration efforts and understanding how climate change may impact these populations.

Kaylor, Matthew J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Factors Influencing Propensity for Stress Relaxation Cracking in Inconel® Alloy 740H® and Practical Guidance for Applications

Inconel® alloy 740H® (UNS N07740) was the first age-hardenable nickel-based alloy approved by the ASME Boiler & Pressure Vessel Code for use in pressure-boundary applications. In recent years, advanced energy systems such as supercritical CO2 power cycles have utilized alloy 740H in large demonstration projects driven by the requirement for higher fluid temperatures and pressures. Stress relaxation cracking (SRxC) following post-weld heat-treatment (PWHT), also known as strain age cracking (SAC), has been identified in a limited number of weldments during these industrial builds resulting in focused research to further clarify factors influencing this cracking tendency. This paper will summarize some of the findings from shop and field fabrication leading to successful welds and characteristics of observed SRxC. Laboratory experiments supported by microstructural characterization will be presented to highlight the importance of variables such as strain, material starting condition, and PWHT temperatures. Finally, the results will be summarized within the context of practical guidance for industry to successfully weld the material in boiler, heat exchanger, and piping applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Drivers of coupled climate model biases in representing Labrador Sea convection

Abstract This study investigates the representation of ocean convection in the Labrador Sea in seven Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 datasets. The relative role of the oceanic and atmospheric biases in the subpolar North Atlantic gyre are explored using regional ocean simulations where the atmospheric forcing or the ocean initial and boundary conditions are replaced by reanalysis data in the absence of interactive air-sea coupling. Commonalities and differences among model behaviors are discussed with the objective of finding a pathway forward to improve the representation of the ocean mean state and variability in a region of fundamental importance for climate variability and change. Results highlight that an improved representation of ocean stratification in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre is urgently needed to constrain future climate change projections. While improving the ocean model resolution in the North Atlantic alone may contribute a better representation of both boundary currents and propagation of heat and freshwater anomalies into the Labrador Sea, it may not be sufficient. Addressing the atmospheric heat flux bias with better resolution in the atmosphere and land topography may allow for deep convection to occur in the Labrador Sea in some of the models that miss it entirely, but the greatest priority remains improving the representation of ocean stratification.

Liu, Guangpeng↗
DOE OSTI2020

Constructing a spatiotemporally coherent long-term PM2.5 concentration dataset over China during 1980–2019 using a machine learning approach

The lack of long-term observations and satellite retrievals of health-damaging fine particulate matter in China has demanded the estimates of historical PM 2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter) concentrations. This study constructs a gridded near-surface PM 2.5 concentration dataset across China covering 1980–2019 using the space-time random forest model with atmospheric visibility observations and other auxiliary data. The modeled daily PM2.5 concentrations are in excellent agreement with ground measurements during 2015–2019, with a coefficient of determination of 0.95 and mean relative error of 12%. Besides the atmospheric visibility which explains 30% of total importance of variables in the model, both emissions and meteorological conditions are also essential factors affecting PM2.5 predictions. From 1980 to 2014, the model-predicted PM2.5 concentrations increased constantly with the maximum growth rate of 5–10 µg/m3/decade over eastern China. Due to the clean air actions, PM 2.5 concentrations have decreased effectively at a rate over 50 µg/m 3 /decade in the North China Plain and 20–50 µg/m 3 /decade over eastern China during 2014–2019. The newly generated dataset of 1-degree gridded PM 2.5 concentrations for the past 40 years across China provides a useful means for investigating interannual and decadal environmental and climate impacts related to aerosols.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Supersaturation, Nucleation, and Phase Separation of Mesoscopic Systems

Supersaturation, nucleation, and phase separation are ubiquitous phenomena of great interest in both science and industry. However, a unified, quantitative understanding of these phenomena has yet to be achieved for mesoscopic systems. Here, we present a set of general equations that determine the monomer saturation degree, the size distribution, and the free energy of mesoscopic systems, as well as their phase-transition conditions. These equations reveal that, under supersaturation, the largest cluster size (LCS) is an important state variable; the supersaturation degree decreases with the LCS, approaching unity in the macroscopic limit. We identify the critical supersaturation, at which the nuclei undergo the phase transition to form large crystals. Below this critical supersaturation, the nucleus size distribution is either a unimodal function or a monotonically decreasing function of size, depending on the system and temperature. We also predict the most probable nucleus size and the direction of spontaneous changes of the LCS. Our theory provides a unified, quantitative explanation of the nucleus-size-distribution across six different systems, including nanoparticles and biological condensates. This work serves as a general theoretical framework useful for understanding and designing nucleation and phase transitions of mesoscopic systems.

Kang, Jingyu↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using genetic algorithms to systematically improve the synthesis conditions of Al-PMOF

The synthesis of metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) is often complex and the desired structure is not always obtained. In this work, we report a methodology that uses a joint machine learning and experimental approach to optimize the synthesis conditions of Al-PMOF (Al 2 (OH) 2 TCPP) [H 2 TCPP = meso-tetra(4-carboxyphenyl)porphine], a promising material for carbon capture applications. Al-PMOF was previously synthesized using a hydrothermal reaction, which gave a low throughput yield due to its relatively long reaction time (16 hours). Here, we use a genetic algorithm to carry out a systematic search for the optimal synthesis conditions and a microwave-based high-throughput robotic platform for the syntheses. We show that, in just two generations, we could obtain excellent crystallinity and yield close to 80% in a much shorter reaction time (50 minutes). Moreover, by analyzing the failed and partially successful experiments, we could identify the most important experimental variables that determine the crystallinity and yield.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the potential for bird‐habitat models to support biodiversity‐friendly urban planning

Abstract Urban expansion poses a major threat to wildlife populations. Biodiversity‐friendly urban landscapes could deliver benefits for both wildlife and people, by incorporating conservation and ecosystem services objectives. Well‐designed urban developments could also soften the ecological impacts of urbanization. However, delivering urban landscapes that integrate biodiversity requirements effectively remains challenging. Ecological models, designed to predict wildlife population responses to alternative urban designs, could prove effective in supporting the creation of biodiversity‐friendly urban landscapes. Here, we combine national‐scale bird abundance data with high resolution, spatially explicit habitat data to characterize relationships between bird densities and urban landscape form in Britain. From these analyses and cross validation, we evaluate the potential for well‐parameterized, species‐specific models to be used to predict bird densities in novel or modified urban areas. Our analyses indicate that responses of bird abundance to urban habitat are species‐specific and complex, with few variables consistently affecting a large proportion of species. However, contiguous areas of greenspace within urban sites are preferential for accommodating breeding birds, compared to a more fragmented arrangement of multiple, small greenspace patches. In combination, the bird‐habitat relationships identified could successfully predict observed variation in abundance for most bird species considered. Further evaluation of habitat descriptor variables, spatial scales of species' habitat use and analytical modelling approaches may be needed to improve the predictive ability of bird‐habitat models for certain species, particularly waterbirds and those observed less frequently in urban areas. Synthesis and applications . We modelled breeding bird abundance in built‐up areas with respect to the characteristics and contexts of urban environments. While most variables were important for multiple species, responses overall were species‐specific, so simple assemblage metrics, like diversity, will not describe the variation in bird communities well. However, the results illustrate the potential of an evidence‐based, spatially explicit evaluation of urban development impacts on biodiversity, by predicting the consequences for bird numbers. Subject to verification of predictive ability, practitioners can apply the models to compare, for example, land‐sparing and sharing within developments, or to quantify the biodiversity requirements for effective offsetting. This would be facilitated by incorporation into an online tool allowing user‐determined input scenarios.

Plummer, Kate E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Human activities shape global patterns of decomposition rates in rivers

Rivers and streams contribute to global carbon cycling by decomposing immense quantities of terrestrial plant matter. However, decomposition rates are highly variable and large-scale patterns and drivers of this process remain poorly understood. Using a cellulose-based assay to reflect the primary constituent of plant detritus, we generated a predictive model (81% variance explained) for cellulose decomposition rates across 514 globally distributed streams. A large number of variables were important for predicting decomposition, highlighting the complexity of this process at the global scale. Predicted cellulose decomposition rates, when combined with genus-level litter quality attributes, explain published leaf litter decomposition rates with high accuracy (70% variance explained). Finally, our global map provides estimates of rates across vast understudied areas of Earth and reveals rapid decomposition across continental-scale areas dominated by human activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nonlocal, Pattern-Aware Response and Feedback Framework for Regional Climate Response

We devise a pattern-aware feedback framework for representing the forced climate response using a suite of Green’s function experiments with solar radiation perturbations. By considering the column energy balance, a comprehensive linear response function (CLRF) for important climate variables and feedback quantities such as moist static energy, sea surface temperature, albedo, cloud optical depth, and lapse rate is learned from Green’s function data. The learned CLRF delineates the effects of the energy diffusion in both the ocean and atmosphere and the pattern-aware feedbacks from the aforementioned radiatively active processes. The CLRF can then be decomposed into forcing–response mode pairs, which are in turn used to construct a reduced-order model describing the dominant dynamics of climate responses. These mode pairs capture nonlocal effects and teleconnections in the climate and thus make the reduced-order model apt for capturing regional features of climate response. A key observation is that the CLRF captures the polar-amplified response as the most excitable mode of the climate system, and this mode is explainable in the data-learned pattern-aware feedback framework. The reduced-order model can be used for predicting the response for a given forcing and for reconstructing the forcing from a given response; we demonstrate these capabilities for multiple independent forcing scenarios.

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