psuade-lite
Lighter version of the Problem Solving environment for Uncertainty Analysis and Design Exploration (PSUADE)
Tong, CharlesH.↗
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psuade-lite
Lighter version of the Problem Solving environment for Uncertainty Analysis and Design Exploration (PSUADE)
Tong, Charles↗
Platform Of Optimal Experiment Management
The platform of optimal experiment management, POEM, powered with automated machine learning to accelerate the discovery of optimal solutions, and automatically guide the design of experiments to be evaluated. POEM currently supports 1) random model explorations for experiment design, 2) sparse grid model explorations with Gaussian Polynomial Chaos surrogate model to accelerate experiment design ,3) time-dependent model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to identify the importance features for experiment design, 4) model calibrations via Bayesian inference to integrate experiments to improve model performance, and 5) Bayesian optimization for optimal experimental design. In addition, POEM aims to simplify the process of experimental design for users, enabling them to analyze the data with minimal human intervention, and improving the technological output from research activities.
Wang, Congjian [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), I↗
A Review of TSUNAMI Applications
The TSUNAMI-1D and TSUNAMI-3D sequences for generating k eff sensitivity coefficients were first released in SCALE 5 in 2004. Several other tools were introduced in the same release, including primarily the TSUNAMI-IP code for uncertainty analysis and similarity assessments. The TSUNAMI sequences added capabilities for identifying important reactions and data for systems using sensitivity coefficients and also introduced new quantitative tools for rigorously assessing the similarity of systems. Over time, the capabilities of these tools have grown, and their use has expanded into other areas such as nuclear data assessment and nuclear covariance data testing. This paper discusses applications of the TSUNAMI tools for sensitivity calculations, sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U)-based validation, and nuclear data testing. This paper is one of a series of papers at this conference on the development and use of TSUNAMI tools. The other papers address the development of the TSUNAMI methods and the use of TSUNAMI for critical experiment design and optimization.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Essential Statistical Concepts
Statistical methods are an essential element to making quality measurements, allowing the organization and interrogation of data in a structured way. This introductory chapter describes key concepts of measurement statistics that are used in many nondestructive assay (NDA) methods and is intended as a primer to the reading list provided in the reference section. (Croft and Burr 2016; Smith 1991; Smith 2013; Taylor 1997; Triola 2017). The textbooks by Triola on elementary statistics (Figure 1), Taylor, and Smith (2013) introduce uncertainty analysis in the physical sciences. Smith (1991) provides a rigorous introduction with examples to correlated variables. These texts collectively offer an excellent foundation for understanding essential statistical concepts.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Gemma V&V/UQ/Credibility Activities: FY2020 Progress
This report describes the credibility activities undertaken in support of Gemma code development in FY20, which include Verification & Validation (V&V), Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), and Credibility process application. The main goal of these activities is to establish capabilities and process frameworks that can be more broadly applied to new and more advanced problems as the Gemma code development effort matures. This will provide Gemma developers and analysts with the tools needed to generate credibility evidence in support of Gemma predictions for future use cases. The FY20 Gemma V&V/UQ/Credibility activities described in this report include experimental uncertainty analysis, the development and use of methods for optimal design of computer experiments, and the development of a framework for validation. These initial activities supported the development of broader credibility planning for Gemma that continued into FY21.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Update of CEA DES Criticality-Safety Activities and Perspectives [Slides]
Neutronics staff at CEA DES are in charge of a whole set of modeling and simulation tools for neutronics: nuclear data evaluation and processing, transport codes development, calculation sequences edition, verification, validation and uncertainty analysis. Advanced user groups are in charge of specific nuclear analysis in reactor physics, fuel cycle, criticality-safety, radiation shielding and nuclear instrumentation for CEA and its partners, at all stages of nuclear facilities life cycle. CEA is willing to participate/collaborate on the following issues: detector design, experiments, analysis and evaluation, DH validation by combining TAGS measurements with Fission Yield variance-covariance matrices.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Validation of Nuclear Data Sensitivity Calculations by the MCNP PERT Card [Poster]
This work validates a method of estimating sensitivities that utilized the MCNP PERT card and tallies. The agreement of the PERT card and Brute Force results proves the validity of calculating nuclear data sensitivities by use of the MCNP PERT card, especially at higher energies. The overall agreement will be easier to understand once an uncertainty analysis is completed.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Approach to Analyzing VTR Core Performance Sensitivities to Fuel Manufacturing Uncertainties and Application to Fuel Slug Diameter
This report documents the initial effort to characterize sensitivity of VTR core performance to fuel manufacturing uncertainties. The effects of variation in the as-fabricated fuel slug diameter on VTR neutronics performance are evaluated, using both high-fidelity Monte Carlo (OpenMC) and the main core design solver (DIF3D) for all cases. This work and follow-on work will inform the VTR Project’s fuel manufacturing processes and associated acceptable criteria, as well as detailed uncertainty analysis in later stages of VTR development and deployment. In addition, this work demonstrates the approach to performing such evaluations and provides a basis for reducing the scope of calculations in future sensitivity analysis.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Joint LLNL, LANL, SNL, and IRSN High Multiplication Subcritical (Multiplicity) Benchmark Experiments Execution Plan (IER-518 CED-3a)
As part of the experiment design and planning, the critical experiment design team (CEDT), as well as additional stakeholders, convened a series of meetings to discuss the goals and requirements of execution for this experiment. The slides from these meetings are attached in Appendix A. The following sections summarize the outcome of those discussions and present the planned experimental configurations and measurements. The stated goals of this experiment are as follows: 1) Measure time-tagged list-mode data for configurations exceeding neutron multiplication of 100; 2) Provide intercomparison between LLNL, LANL, and IRSN detector systems and methodologies; 3) Generate experiment execution report(s) useful to a fundamental physics benchmark for the ICSBEP; 4) Leverage existing critical experiment and detector system benchmarks to limit required modeling and uncertainty analysis.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Conversion of METL Diagnostic Flowmeters to Permanent Magnet Based Electromagnetic Flowmeters
The Mechanisms Engineering Test Loop (METL) uses three flowmeters to monitor sodium circulation through the main loop, the Cold Trap leg, and the Plugging Meter leg. When constructed, the Cold Trap flowmeter (CTFM) and Plugging Meter flowmeter (PMFM) were equipped with permanent magnets and Hall Sensors. By October of 2019, during normal operations, both the CTFM and PMFM failed, producing either erroneous or zero signals. Repairs to the flowmeters were attempted in January of 2020 but failed to resolve the issues. Therefore, starting in March of 2021, a plan was developed to convert the installed flowmeters to more robust permanent magnet based electromagnetic flowmeters (EMFMs). The Cold Trap EMFM (CT EMFM) and Plugging Meter EMFM (PM EMFM) were fully installed by August of 2021. Initial testing and commissioning were completed in November of 2021. Finally, the first calibration runs were finished in March of 2022. This report discusses the design, conversion, and calibration of the as-built CTFM and PMFM to robust permanent magnet based EMFMs. During the design phase, theoretical models were used to estimate the signal output and required magnet sizes. Then, the CTFM and PMFM were disassembled and converted to EMFMs. After commissioning, the CT EMFM and PM EMFM were calibrated using a ‘Time Transfer Procedure’ carried out with METL Expansion Vessels and Test Vessel Two. The accuracy of the calibration was estimated through an uncertainty analysis. Finally, the report describes some lessons learned for future flowmeter conversions and follow-up work. In total, both METL EMFM’s met the desired performance targets. Testing data showed that the METL EMFMs provide a output signal of roughly 2 mV at 1 GPM and 250 °C. During calibration, flowrates between 0.7 GPM and 2.4 GPM were achieved. In this flow range, calibration coefficients of 0.485 and 0.935 were measured as with errors ranging from 15-5% and 16-5% for the CT EMFM and PM EMFM, respectively. Above 1.5 GPM, the error was assumed to be about 5% for both METL EMFMs. Several points will be considered for future follow-up work on the METL EMFM’s. First, the signal noise issues in the PM EMFM will be addressed. It is likely the source of the noise is due to some stray EMF from a heater. Secondly, the NdFeB magnets will be replaced with a grade that has a Curie temperature above 80 °C. For example, a few grades of NeFeB magnets have Curie temperatures which exceed 150 °C and some SmCo magnets have Curie temperatures as high as 500 °C. Third, more calibration runs will be completed in the range of 0.5-2.5 GPM. This will further improve the accuracy of the calibration coefficient. Fourth, calibration runs will be completed up to 5 GPM. This requires a larger pressure relief valve to be installed on the Expansion Vessel and Test Vessel 2, as well as a revised calibration procedure. Lastly, calibration runs will be completed to account for cold spots in the system, which reduced the inlet temperature of the METL EMFMs. Overall, these points will improve the calibration coefficients derived in this work and also improve the performance of the METL EMFMs.
42 ENGINEERING↗
LLNL IPD Tasks: ICSBEP and Pulsed Spheres Benchmark [Slides]
This lecture presented benchmark of the blank and polyethylene spheres at SINBAD in April 2023. In responding to comments about the building, we uncovered a large amount of additional detailed information about the building and experimental set up. We incorporated this new information into an even higher fidelity model and are working on uncertainty analysis at a low level. Scheduled to present at SINBAD meeting in April 2024.
96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
Samoa Updater: An Application of the Levenberg-Marquardt Method to Update DELFIC Predictions Using Field Measurements
The US Department of Energy (DOE) Forensics Operations (DFO) is a member of the Ground Collections Task Force (GCTF), which is responsible for sample collection of radiological debris for attribution should a nuclear detonation ever occur in the United States. The DFO runs the Defense Land Fallout Interpretive Code (DELFIC) Fallout Planning Tool to predict the deposition of fallout from a nuclear detonation. This prediction is refined using the DELFIC Updater tool, which takes ground measurements and adjusts DELFIC inputs to minimize the difference between prediction and observation, yielding improved predictions of fallout in locations both measured and not yet measured. Samoa, a framework for uncertainty analysis and optimization, is used to improve DELFIC predictive fallout modeling. This new capability using Samoa, dubbed “Samoa Updater,” is compared with the current DELFIC Updater, a brute-force sampling approach. Samoa Updater uses the Levenberg– Marquardt (LM) method, a gradient-based nonlinear least squares approach that uses the functional shape of the input space to increase optimization speed. In simulated test cases Samoa Updater yields faster and more accurate solutions than the current Updater.
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
Towards reverse mode automatic differentiation of Kokkos-based codes
Derivative computation is a key component of optimization, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, and the solving of nonlinear problems. Automatic differentiation (AD) is a powerful technique for evaluating such derivatives, and in recent years, has been integrated into programming environments such as Jax, PyTorch, and TensorFlow to support derivative computations needed for training of machine learning models, facilitating wide-spread use of these technologies. The C++ language has become the de facto standard for scientific computing due to numerous factors, yet language complexity has made the wide-spread adoption of AD technologies for C++ difficult, hampering the incorporation of powerful differentiable programming approaches into C++ scientific simulations. This is exacerbated by the increasing emergence of architectures, such as GPUs, with limited memory capabilities and requiring massive thread-level concurrency. C++ AD tools must effectively use these environments to bring novel scientific simulations to next-generation DOE experimental and observational facilities. In this project, we investigated source transformation-based automatic differentiation using LLVM compiler infrastructure to automatically generate portable and efficient gradient computations of Kokkos-based code. We have demonstrated that our proposed strategy is feasible by investigating the usage of a prototype LLVM-based source transformation tool to generate gradients of simple functions made of sequences of simple Kokkos parallel regions. Speedups of up to 500x compared to Sacado were observed on NVIDIA V100 GPU.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Nuclear Material Accounting and Control (NMAC) for a Commercial Fuel Debundling Facility in the United States
The concept of fuel debundling proposes that all non-fuel components of a fuel assembly be removed prior to beginning the recycling process. It was introduced to reduce the quantity of and cost of disposing high level radioactive waste during recycling in the United States. However, nuclear material accountancy and control programs could also benefit from fuel debundling due to a reduction in self-shielding material for individual fuel rods compared to a fuel assembly. Current NRC regulations and guidance point to an independent fuel debundling facility with a material-possession-only license as the best option for implementing this concept into a used fuel recycling scheme in the United States. This allows the facility to comply only with simple NMAC requirements under Subpart B of 10 CFR Part 74 without the need to submit an NMAC plan to the NRC, exempting it from more tedious and complex NMAC requirements. However, a recycling facility may desire a Pu mass estimate from measurements of each individual fuel rod to improve accountancy into the dissolver. Many technologies and methodologies were considered for performing NMAC in an independent fuel debundling facility in the United States. Few were able to meet anticipated throughput demands of up to 3,300 rods/day and achieve measurement uncertainties suitable for input accountancy for a recycling facility. The best option was a combination of passive gamma-ray spectroscopy and neutron coincidence counting to meet all requirements for the proposed Fuel Debundling Detector (FUDD). Follow-on work will include a full uncertainty analysis to inform what assumptions can be made to meet input accountancy objectives before beginning experimental activities.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DRE: Designing for Resilience through Emulation
Threats to cyber- and cyber-physical systems have continued to increase over the past decade. Now more than ever, it is vital that cyber-physical system stakeholders have the tools to deeply understand their systems and the threats they face. High-fidelity modeling capabilities are powerful tools to support system understanding and decision-making, but they currently lack scientifically rigorous experimentation practices and infrastructures. The purpose of the project Designing for Resilience through Emulation (DRE) was to bring together past research and existing tools into a new pipeline to improve our ability to quantitatively evaluate future cyber scenarios. DRE offers new integrated capabilities for large dataset collection, noise studies, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, and surrogate modeling using a cyber-physical system emulation environment. These new capabilities significantly improve our ability to establish the credibility of the answers derived from emulation environments, ultimately leading to better critical decision support.
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
Education for PV Modeling Professionals: Observations from the 2025 PVPMC Workshop
We surveyed professionals in the photovoltaic industry to understand interests in education and training for performance modeling of solar power systems. We found that most professionals are self-taught and rely on a variety of public sources of technical materials. Available formal education, such as courses or certification programs, either lacks detail or is focused on software user training. Responses indicate several opportunities to create public resources that would benefit professional learning for solar power system modeling: • Create a glossary of terms and common variable names. • Develop guidance on uncertainty analysis in the context of solar power systems modeling. • Assemble a catalog of available educational materials and data sources.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Willow Biomass Crops Are a Carbon Negative or Low-Carbon Feedstock Depending on Prior Land Use and Transportation Distances to End Users
Few life cycle assessments (LCAs) on willow biomass production have investigated the effects of key geographically specific parameters. This study uses a spatial LCA model for willow biomass production to determine spatially explicit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy return on investment (EROI), including land use conversion from pasture and cropland or grassland. There were negative GHG emissions on 92% of the land identified as suitable for willow biomass production, indicating this system’s potential for climate change mitigation. For willow planted on cropland or pasture, life cycle GHG emissions ranged from −53.2 to −176.9 kg CO2eq Mg-1. When willow was grown on grassland the projected decrease in soil organic carbon resulted in a slightly positive GHG balance. Changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) associated with land use change, transportation distance, and willow yield had the greatest impacts on GHG emissions. Results from the uncertainty analysis exhibited large variations in GHG emissions between counties arising from differences in these parameters. The average EROI across the entire region was 19.2. Willow biomass can be a carbon negative or low-carbon energy source with a high EROI in regions with similar infrastructure, transportation distances, and growing conditions such as soil characteristics, land cover types, and climate.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗