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At least 235 records · Page 13

The interactive role of subsynoptic scale jet sreak and planetary boundary layer adjustments in organizing an apparently isolated convective complex

A mesoscale atmospheric simulation system is described that is being developed in order to improve the simulation of subsynoptic and mesoscale adjustments associated with cyclogenesis, severe storm development, and significant atmospheric transport processes. Present emphasis in model development is in the parameterization of physical processes, time-dependent boundary conditions, sophisticated initialization and analysis procedures, nested grid solutions, and applications software development. Basic characteristics of the system as of March 1982 are listed. In a case study, the Grand Island tornado outbreak of 3 June 1980 is considered in substantial detail. Results of simulations with a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system indicate that over the high plains subtle interactions between existing jet streaks and deep well mixed boundary layers can lead to well organized patterns of mesoscale divergence and pressure falls. The amplitude and positioning of these mesoscale features is a function of the subtle nonlinear interaction between the pre-existing jet-streak and deep well mixed boundary layers. Model results for the case study indicate that the model has the potential for forecasting the precursor mesoscale convective environment.

Kaplan, M. L.↗

A comparison of adiabatic and kinematic vertical motions using mesoscale data

Results are compared from the adiabatic and kinematic methods of determining vertical motion during a period of severe convective storms when special meso alpha-scale rawinsonde data were available. The two procedures were tested using data from the first regional-scale day of AVE-SESAME '79 which coincided with the Red River Valley tornado outbreak of April 10-11, 1979. At 700 mb, each technique showed good agreement with the weather patterns, but the kinematic procedure gave superior results at 500 mb. The overall goodness of the adiabatic method during this particular case was not solely due to the high-resolution SESAME data since synoptic-scale mechanisms played a major role in creating a storm-conducive environment. With the advent of computer aided analysis systems such as AFOS, forecasters will have quicker access to a greater variety of information. Present results suggest that the adiabatic method can yield useful information for severe storm forecasters, especially in the lower troposphere. An interesting follow-on study would use sounding data from geostationary VAS satellites to compute adiabatic vertical motions at finer time and space resolutions than is now possible using RAOB data alone. Geostrophic winds derived from satellite thermal data probably can be used.

Fuelberg, H. E.↗

The life cycle of a tornadic cloud as seen from a geosynchronous satellite

The life span of a severe storm is on the order of a few hours. Rapid-scan infrared and visible observations from geosynchronous satellites can be useful for studying the life cycle of a severe convective storm. By using artificial colors for pixels representing blackbody temperatures of the cloud top, convective storms can be observed throughout their life cycles. In this paper clouds associated with a tornadic storm, the Ringwood, OK tornado on May 29, 1977, are compared with those without a tornadic storm to illustrate how the infrared and visible observations from a geosynchronous satellite can be used to study the differences in their life cycles. The instability of the air mass and the meteorological background are discussed based on balloon observations.

Hung, R. J.↗

Numeric and fluid dynamic representation of tornadic double vortex thunderstorms

Current understanding of a double vortex thunderstorm involves a pair of contra-rotating vortices that exists in the dynamic updraft. The pair is believed to be a result of a blocking effect which occurs when a cylindrical thermal updraft of a thunderstorm protrudes into the upper level air and there is a large amount of vertical wind shear between the low level and upper level air layers. A numerical tornado prediction scheme based on the double vortex thunderstorm was developed. The Energy-Shear Index (ESI) is part of the scheme and is calculated from radiosonde measurements. The ESI incorporates parameters representative of thermal instability and blocking effect, and indicates appropriate environments for which the development of double vortex thunderstorms is likely.

Connell, J. R.↗

The Flight Test of an Automatic Spin Prevention System

The paper describes the flight testing of the Spin Prevention and Incidence Limiting System (SPILS) now fitted to the Tornado aircraft. The trial was carried out in parallel with the conventional stalling and spinning trial and the special aircraft equipment and test procedures were common to both trials for much of the time. The use of telemetry was of particular importance to the conduct of the trial and is considered in some detail. The paper then describes the SPILS flight testing, with and without stores, and describes the reasons for the control law modifications required to "fine tune" the performance of the system. In conclusion, consideration is given to the lessons learned from the flight trial.

P S Butcher↗

Statistical analysis and use of the VAS radiance data

Special radiosonde soundings at 75 km spacings and 3 hour intervals provided an opportunity to learn more about mesoscale data and storm-environment interactions. Relatively small areas of intense convection produce major changes in surrounding fields of thermodynamic, kinematic, and energy variables. The Red River Valley tornado outbreak was studied. Satellite imagery and surface data were used to specify cloud information needed in the radiative heating/cooling calculations. A feasibility study for computing boundary layer winds from satellite-derived thermal data was completed. Winds obtained from TIROS-N retrievals compared very favorably with corresponding values from concurrent rawisonde thermal data, and both sets of thermally-derived winds showed good agreements with observed values.

Fuelberg, H. E.↗

Investigation of arc cloud lines

The natural mechanisms that lead to the development of deep convective storms through the integration of radio scan satellite data with research aircraft observations is discussed. The aircraft measurements are designed to provide detailed air motion and thermodynamic data near and in the arc cloud line region at the same time GOES rapid scan data is taken. Inspection of the data indicates: (1) Arc cloud lines are important in both the production of convergence and vorticity, and in the interaction with intense thunderstorms which may act to trigger tornado activity. (2) The lateral extent of the vertical motion field compared to the cloud scale indicates that the main driving force for the initial cloud development along the arc-line is controlled by the thunderstorm outflow(s) interacting with the convectively unstable air of the environment. (3) Arc cloud lines and their associated DSL region can pose extreme hazards to aircraft operations. (4) An arc cloud line's major threat to space shuttle operations lie in its ability to generate new thunderstorm activity along the shuttle glide path.

Purdom, J. F. W.↗

Recent examples of mesoscale numerical forecasts of severe weather events along the east coast

Mesoscale numerical forecasts utilizing the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) are documented for two East Coast severe weather events. The two events are the thunderstorm and heavy snow bursts in the Washington, D.C. - Baltimore, MD region on 8 March 1984 and the devastating tornado outbreak across North and South Carolina on 28 March 1984. The forecasts are presented to demonstrate the ability of the model to simulate dynamical interactions and diabatic processes and to note some of the problems encountered when using mesoscale models for day-to-day forecasting.

Kocin, P. J.↗

Investigations of severe/tornadic thunderstorm development and evolution based on satellite and AVE/SESAME/VAS data

The use of rapid scan satellite imagery to investigate the local environment of severe thunderstorms is discussed. Mesoscale cloud tracking and vertical wind shear as it affects thunderstorm relative flow are mentioned. The role of pre-existing low level cloud cover in the outbreak of tornadoes was investigated. Applying visible atmospheric sounding imagery to mesoscale phenomena is also addressed.

Vonderhaar, T. H.↗

Computer studies of baroclinic flow

Programs necessary for computing the transition curve on the regime diagram for the atmospheric general circulation experiment (AGOE) were completed and used to determine the regime diagram for the rotating annulus and some axisymmetric flows for one possible AGOE configuration. The effect of geometrical constraints on the size of eddies developing from a basic state is being examined. In AGOE, the geometric constraint should be the width of the shear zone or the baroclinic zone. Linear and nonlinear models are to be used to examine both barotropic and baroclinic flows. The results should help explain the scale selection mechanism of baroclinic eddies in the atmosphere experimental models such as AGOE, and the multiple vortex phenomenon in tornadoes.

Gall, R.↗

Dust devils on Mars

Large columns of dust have been discovered rising above plains on Mars. The storms are probably analogous to terrestrial dust devils, but their size indicates that they are more similar to tornadoes in intensity. They occur at locations where the soil has been strongly warmed by the Sun, and there the surface is smooth and fine grained. These are the same conditions that favor dust devils on Earth. Warm gas from the lowest atmospheric layer converges and rises in a thin column, with intense swirl developing at the edge of the column. In one area a mosaic of Viking images shows 97 vortices in a three day period. This represents a density of vortices of about one in each 900 square kilometers. Thus, these dust devils may be important in moving dust or starting over dust storms.

Thomas, P. G.↗

An analysis of the AVE-SESAME I period using statistical structure and correlation functions

Structure and correlation functions are used to describe atmospheric variability during the 10-11 April day of AVE-SESAME 1979 that coincided with the Red River Valley tornado outbreak. The special mesoscale rawinsonde data are employed in calculations involving temperature, geopotential height, horizontal wind speed and mixing ratio. Functional analyses are performed in both the lower and upper troposphere for the composite 24 h experiment period and at individual 3 h observation times. Results show that mesoscale features are prominent during the composite period. Fields of mixing ratio and horizontal wind speed exhibit the greatest amounts of small-scale variance, whereas temperature and geopotential height contain the least. Results for the nine individual times show that small-scale variance is greatest during the convective outbreak. The functions also are used to estimate random errors in the rawinsonde data. Finally, sensitivity analyses are presented to quantify confidence limits of the structure functions.

Fuelberg, H. E.↗

The interactive role of subsynoptic scale jet streak and planetary boundary layer processes in organizing an isolated convective complex

Surface analyses and numerical simulation sensitivity studies are compared in order to determine the role played by deep, well-mixed, and well-heated boundary layers in perturbing a weak jet streak in proximity to the development of an isolated but intense convective complex associated with the Grand Island, Nebraska tornado outbreak of June 3-4, 1980. A brief description of the case is first presented, emphasizing three-hourly surface analyses, radar, and satellite data. The results of numerical experiments comparing differences in the runs with and without diurnal surface sensible heating are discussed and related to observations. The dynamical processes responsible for these simulation differences are discussed, and the significance of these differences are considered in terms of their effect on the preconvective environment.

Kaplan, M. L.↗

Relationship between convective clouds and precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau area from satellite remote sensing and ground-based observations

Results of this study show that heavy rainfall in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau area is usually preceded by a high growth rate of the convective clouds followed by a rapid collapse of the cloud top. The tops of the convective clouds associated with heavy rainfall over the plateau usually lie between the altitudes of the two tropopauses which exist over the plateau. Undoubtedly the double tropopause restricts the vertical growth of the clouds and this may be the reason why tornadoes rarely occur there.

Hung, R. J.↗

Case study of Pampa, Texas, multicell storms

Analysis of the Pampa, TX, multicell storms showed prestorm environmental conditions of a strong horizontal convergence of moisture, mixing ratio 12 g/kg at the 850 mb level in the Texas Panhandle areas and strong winds with shear veering with height. Rapid-scan satellite imagery showed that the clouds penetrated above the tropopause and cloud-top temperatures were at least 4 to 9 C colder than the temperature of the tropopause. This formation and collapsing of high-mass-density overshooting cloud tops above the tropopause is characteristic of tornadoes in the middle portion of the United States.

Hung, R. J.↗

Airborne Doppler-lidar and ground-based Doppler radar observations of a thunderstorm in Oklahoma

The results of airborne Doppler-lidar and ground-based Doppler radar observations of multicellular storms, marked by heavy rainfall, strong surface outflow, and a gust-front tornado, on June 30, 1981 are analyzed. The airborne lidar comprised a CO2-laser operating in the IR region, which was discharged once each second at 20 deg fore and aft, alternatively, of the normal to the aircraft's heading, and a quarter-wave plate for registering the returning frequency-shifted beams. Wind fields are plotted taking into account the advection effects. The lidar data set is noted for its self-consistency, though limited to a range of 5 km by the high moisture levels. Fair agreement was found between the lidar-derived and radar-derived average ground-based radial wind fields, with discrepancies on the order of 1.5 m/s.

Bluestein, H. B.↗

Detection of severe Midwest thunderstorms using geosynchronous satellite data

In the present exploration of the effectiveness of severe thunderstorm detection in the Midwestern region of the U.S. by means of approximately 5-min interval geosynchronous satellite data, thunderstorms are defined in IR data as points of relative minimum in brightness temperature T(B) having good time continuity and exhibiting a period of rapid growth. The four parameters of rate of T(B) decrease in the upper troposphere and stratosphere, isotherm expansion, and storm lifetime minimum T(B), are shown to be statistically related to the occurrence of severe weather on four case study days and are combined into a Thunderstorm Index which varies among values from 1 to 9. Storms rating higher than 6 have a much higher probability of severe weather reports, yielding a warning time lead of 15 min for hail and 30 min for the first tornado report.

Adler, R. F.↗

Numerical simulations of a transverse indirect circulation and low-level jet in the exit region of an upper-level jet

A numerical study was performed of a severe weather event (tornado) which occurred on May 10, 1973 in the Ohio region. The situation was modeled with a primitive equation mesoscale dynamic formulation. Account was taken of precipitation, the planetary boundary layer parameters as bulk quantities, the vertical pressure gradient, and lateral boundary conditions based on radiosonde data. Two 12-hr simulations, adiabatic and nondivergent, respectively, were analyzed for relationships between upper and lower level jets. In the adiabatic formulation, a transverse circulation with a low level jet formed at the exit region of the upper level jet. The nondivergent situation led to similar, but weaker, phenomena. Both forms suggest that indirect circulation in the exit zone of an upper level jet is strongly influenced by the initial structure of the jet.

Brill, K. F.↗