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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Atikokan Digital Twin: Machine learning in a biomass energy system

The Atikokan Generating Station, operated by Ontario Power Generation, has a 200 MW, biomass-fired tower boiler that operates on a dispatch schedule with a five-minute cycle. The boiler is generally operated in the range of 40–100 MW using two of five burner levels. In order to optimize boiler performance, we propose the implementation of a unique digital twin. Our digital twin abstraction couples Bayesian inference from science-based models and from observations (machine learning) with decision theory to predict operating-variable set points that optimize the physical asset (the boiler) in the presence of uncertainty (artificial intelligence). We focus this paper on the continuous Bayesian machine learning part of the Atikokan Digital Twin; we discuss decision theory in a companion paper. We identify and learn about 12 operational, model, and measured-output parameters and their uncertainties from high-fidelity, science-based simulations of the Atikokan boiler and from the observed measurements at the power plant. Since the goal of the Atikokan Digital Twin is to implement it online in real time, we require fast function evaluations for the quantities of interest extracted from the simulations in the Bayesian analysis. We use Gaussian process regression/interpolation to create accurate, robust surrogate models. We define the Bayesian priors and likelihood function and solve for the posterior distributions of the 12 parameters. Here we then propagate these distributions (i.e., parameters with uncertainty) into the predicted distributions of 790 quantities of interest to learn about the relative importance of various sources of error including experimental, model, and operating-parameter errors.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Novel application of neutrinos to evaluate U.S. nuclear weapons performance

There is a growing realization that neutrinos can be used as a diagnostic tool to better understand the inner workings of a nuclear weapon. Robust estimates demonstrate that an Inverse Beta Decay (IBD) neutrino scintillation detector built at the Nevada Test Site with a 1000-ton active target mass at a standoff distance of 500 m would detect thousands of antineutrino events per nuclear test. This would provide less than 4% statistical error on the measured antineutrino rate and 5% error on antineutrino energy. Extrapolating this to an error on the test device explosive yield requires knowledge from evaluated nuclear databases, non-equilibrium fission rates, and assumptions on internal neutron fluxes. Initial calculations demonstrate that the total number of neutrinos emitted per fission in the first 10 3 s after a short pulse of 239 Pu fission is about a factor of two less than that from Pu fissioning under steady state conditions. Furthermore, there are significant energy spectral differences as a function of time after the pulse that must be considered. These and other model dependencies will be discussed in the paper. In the absence of nuclear weapons testing, many of the technical and theoretical challenges of a full nuclear test could be mitigated with a low cost smaller scale 20 ton fiducial mass IBD demonstration detector placed near a pulsed reactor. Potential reactors include the Texas A&M University TRIGA 1 GW–10 ms pulsed facility or the Sandia Annular Core Research Reactor. The short duty cycle and repeatability of pulses would provide critical real environment testing and measurements, which would be valuable for planning a possible real test shot in the future. Furthermore, the antineutrino rate as a function of time data would provide unique constraints on fission databases and model assumptions. Finally, there are impactful science drivers such as sensitive searches for ∼1 eV 2 sterile neutrinos and ∼MeV scale axions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Water Mass Transformation Budgets in Finite‐Volume Generalized Vertical Coordinate Ocean Models

Water Mass Transformation (WMT) theory provides conceptual tools that in principle enable innovative analyses of numerical ocean models; in practice, however, these methods can be challenging to implement and interpret, and therefore remain under-utilized. Our aim is to demonstrate the feasibility of diagnosing all terms in the water mass budget and to exemplify their usefulness for scientific inquiry and model development by quantitatively relating water mass changes, overturning circulations, boundary fluxes, and interior mixing. We begin with a pedagogical derivation of key results of classical WMT theory. We then describe best practices for diagnosing each of the water mass budget terms from the output of Finite-Volume Generalized Vertical Coordinate (FV-GVC) ocean models, including the identification of a non-negligible remainder term as the spurious numerical mixing due to advection scheme discretization errors. We illustrate key aspects of the methodology through the analysis of a polygonal region of the Greater Baltic Sea in a regional demonstration simulation using the Modular Ocean Model v6 (MOM6). We verify the convergence of our WMT diagnostics by brute-force, comparing time-averaged (“offline”) diagnostics on various vertical grids to timestep-averaged (“online”) diagnostics on the native model grid. Finally, we briefly describe a stack of xarray-enabled Python packages for evaluating WMT budgets in FV-GVC models (culminating in the new xwmb package), which is intended to be model-agnostic and available for community use and development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Design, Detection, and Countermeasure of Frequency Spectrum Attack and Its Impact on Long Short-Term Memory Load Forecasting and Microgrid Energy Management

This paper introduces a frequency-domain false data injection attack called Frequency Spectrum Attack (FSA) and explores its effects on load forecasting and the energy management system (EMS) in a microgrid. The FSA analyzes time-series signals in the frequency domain to identify patterns in their frequency spectrum. It learns the distribution of dominant frequencies in a dataset of healthy signals. Subsequently, it manipulates the amplitudes of dominant frequencies within this healthy distribution, ensuring a stealthy attack against statistical analysis of the signal spectrum. We evaluated the performance of FSA on LSTM, a state-of-the-art network for load forecasting. The results show that FSA can triple the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of predictions compared to the normal case and increase it by 70% compared to noise injection attacks. Furthermore, FSA indirectly enhances battery utilization in the EMS by 45%. We then proposed a detection method that combines statistical analysis and machine-learning-based classification techniques with features. The model effectively distinguishes FSA from healthy and noisy signals, achieving an accuracy of 98.7% and an F1-score of 98.1% on a load dataset, covering healthy, FSA, and noisy load data. Finally, a countermeasure was introduced based on the statistical analysis of the frequency spectrum of healthy signals to mitigate the impact of FSA. This countermeasure successfully reduces the MAE of the attacked model from 0.135 to 0.053, validating its effectiveness in mitigating FSA.

Nazeri, Amirhossein↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-Speed and High-Quality Field Welding Repair Based on Advanced Non-Destructive Evaluation and Numerical Modeling

Creep strength-enhanced ferritic (CSEF) steels such as Grade 91 (9Cr-1Mo-V) and Grade 92 (Fe-9Cr-2W-0.5Mo) steels are widely used in the fossil-fuel-fired and nuclear power plants. The weld integrity of these steels is crucial for power plants' safe and reliable operations. Due to harsh service conditions, the steel weld can become susceptible to environmental degradation. Field welding repair is used to restore the degraded weld’s performance where a controlled temper-bead welding technique is commonly used to temper the freshly formed martensite during welding. However, knowledge of weld repairability is limited and experimental trial and error optimization to achieve desired microstructure and joint properties is expensive and time-consuming. Many existing computational models, e.g., finite element models, are limited to solving heat conduction equation and ignoring convective heat transfer due to molten metal flow. These models can result in over-prediction of peak temperatures of weld pool and heat-affected zone (HAZ), which in turn can affect the accuracy of tempering prediction. Moreover, these finite element models require an input of the deposit profiles in advance and thus limits the usability of these models. Here, a molten pool-based, multi-pass multi-layer model has been developed based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach with the Volume of Fluid (VOF) method. The model calculates the bead formation, thereby eliminating the need for pre-determined bead profiles required by finite element models. For computational efficiency, a coordinate system attached to the moving heat source is utilized. A subroutine is developed to convert the temperature profiles in the reference frame stationary to the heat source to that stationary to the workpiece. The converted thermal cycles are then imported into a microstructure model to compute the tempering kinetics and resultant hardness using a Johnson-Mehl-Avrami-Kolmogorov (JMAK), and modified Grange-Baughman parameter. The modeling approach is first developed and validated on single- and multi-pass deposition of stainless steel filler metal onto a SA-533 high strength steel substrate. The models are then applied to a multi-pass V-groove repair weld of Grade 91 steel plate as well as directed energy deposition of Grade 92 steel. Non-destructive characterization of microstructures was performed on Grade 91 and 92 steel welds. Two welding processes, cold metal transfer (CMT) and flux-cored arc welding (FCAW), were investigated for the Grade 91 steel weld samples. For the Grade 92 weld samples, three different heat inputs (low, medium, and high) of gas tungsten arc welding (GTAW) were utilized to replicate traditional field welding processes. The non-destructive evaluation (NDE) method used for this research was immersion ultrasonic testing (UT) using a micro-resolution ultrasonic imaging methodology specifically designed to operate in the through-transmission configuration operating at 20 MHz of frequency. The system used a focused ultrasonic beam spot size diameter between 250-300 μm, and a 6 μm laser vibrometer spot size for detection, to produce highly defined images with longitudinal and mode-converted shear waves. From the micro-resolution ultrasonic C-scan images, three microstructural regions, i.e., weld metal (WM), HAZ, and base metal (BM), were clearly identifiable. Various levels of ultrasonic amplitudes distributed over the three regions were correlated with electron beam backscattered diffraction (EBSD) images using grain size, grain boundaries, and dislocation densities. The results showed that areas with relatively higher ultrasonic amplitude levels were associated with smaller grains and higher dislocation densities, while areas with lower amplitude levels were associated with larger grains and lower dislocation densities. In addition, ultrasonic velocity data obtained across the three different weld microstructural regions of Grade 91 test samples were correlated with optical metallographic images and hardness measurements. The results showed distinctive decreases in ultrasonic velocity and hardness over the HAZ region, where weld failures often occur during service.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pan-tropical daily L-band microwave land surface emissivity retrieval from GNSS-R observations

The uncertainties in microwave land surface emissivity (MLSE) measurements have long limited the use of spaceborne microwave radiometer data. As an emerging observation method, Global Navigation Satellite System Reflectometry (GNSS-R) has demonstrated great potential in several land and ocean applications. In this study, a method for obtaining daily MLSE dataset in the pan-tropical region from Cyclone GNSS (CYGNSS) observations is presented and evaluated. The CYGNSS observations are first aggregated into the Equal-Area-Scalable-Earth (EASE) 2.0 36 km grid by a combined weight function of distance, time, and signal-to-noise ratio variance. Then, the method employs a pixel-by-pixel regression algorithm to conduct the daily MLSE retrieval using reference emissivity derived from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) brightness temperature. The CYGNSS MLSE shows good agreement with SMAP MLSE, delivering an overall root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.022 and 0.017 for horizontal and vertical polarization, respectively, during the training set spanning the whole year of 2018. Furthermore, on the test set from January 2019 to May 2019, the RMSE values amounted to 0.030 and 0.023 for horizontal and vertical polarization, respectively. Temperature records from the International Soil Moisture Network are employed to calculate the emissivity and for in-situ validation, which yield an RMSE of 0.034 and 0.026 for the two polarizations, respectively. The proposed algorithm provides an encouraging approach to obtain accurate daily MLSE dataset for microwave remote sensing. Compared to the SMAP MLSE, the CYGNSS MLSE has a remarkable improvement of 86% in temporal resolution, greatly complementing the existing microwave emissivity datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Efficient Training of Deep Neural Operator Networks via Randomized Sampling

Neural operators (NOs) employ deep neural networks to learn the mappings between infinitedimensional function spaces. Deep operator network (DeepONet), a popular NO architecture, has demonstrated success in the real-time prediction of complex dynamics across various scientific and engineering applications. In this work, we introduce a random sampling technique to be adopted during the training of DeepONet, aimed at improving the generalization ability of the model, while significantly reducing the computational time. The proposed approach targets the trunk network of the DeepONet model that outputs the basis functions corresponding to the spatiotemporal locations of the bounded domain on which the physical system is defined. While constructing the loss function, DeepONet training traditionally considers a uniform grid of spatiotemporal points at which all the output functions are evaluated for each iteration. This approach leads to a larger batch size, resulting in poor generalization and increased memory demands, due to the limitations of the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) optimizer. The proposed random sampling over the inputs of the trunk net mitigates these challenges, improving generalization and reducing the memory requirements during training, resulting in significant computational gains. We validate our hypothesis through three benchmark examples, demonstrating substantial reductions in training time while achieving comparable or lower overall test errors relative to the traditional training approach. Our results indicate that incorporating randomization in the trunk network inputs during training enhances the efficiency and robustness of DeepONet, offering a promising avenue for improving the framework’s performance in modeling complex physical systems.

Karumuri, Sharmila [Department of Civil & Systems ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mastering HPC Runtime Prediction: From Observing Patterns to a Methodological Approach

The continual expansion of high-performance computing (HPC) brings with it an increasing need for efficiency. Heavy investment in energy, hardware, and software infrastructure to support peta- and exascale computing requires the optimization of existing systems and, wherever possible, the discernment and adoption of best-practices towards these goals. Such is the case for runtime prediction. When a job is submitted to an HPC system, an estimate of its runtime is provided by the user in the form of "requested wallclock". Error in this user-provided estimate can lead to jobs being prematurely killed by the scheduler, increased wait time on the queue, and decreased system utilization. More than fifteen years of research has been directed at mitigating these effects by using data-driven runtime predictions. Codified here is a set of commonalities and insights emerging from this body of work, which we present as recommendations and best practices. These practices are combined into a methodological approach described and evaluated on an 11-million-job dataset from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's petascale HPC system, Eagle. This dataset and the accompanying codebase have been released to the public domain for the benefit of the wider HPC research community.

high performance computing↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mastering HPC Runtime Prediction: From Observing Patterns to a Methodological Approach: Preprint

The continual expansion of high-performance computing (HPC) brings with it an increasing need for efficiency. Heavy investment in energy, hardware, and software infrastructure to support peta- and exascale computing requires the optimization of existing systems and, wherever possible, the discernment and adoption of best-practices towards these goals. Such is the case for runtime prediction. When a job is submitted to an HPC system, an estimate of its runtime is provided by the user in the form of "requested wallclock''. Error in this user-provided estimate can lead to jobs being prematurely killed by the scheduler, increased wait time on the queue, and decreased system utilization. More than fifteen years of research has been directed at mitigating these effects by using data-driven runtime predictions. Codified here is a set of commonalities and insights emerging from this body of work, which we present as recommendations and best practices. These practices are combined into a methodological approach described and evaluated on an 11-million-job dataset from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's petascale HPC system, Eagle. This dataset and the accompanying codebase have been released to the public domain for the benefit of the wider HPC research community.

high performance computing↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neural Image Compression: Generalization, Robustness, and Spectral Biases

Recent advances in neural image compression (NIC) have resulted in models which are starting to outperform traditional codecs. While this has led to growing excitement about using these methods in real-world applications, the successful adoption of any machine learning system (including NIC) in the wild requires it to generalize (and be robust) to unseen distribution shifts at deployment time. Unfortunately, current research lacks comprehensive datasets and informative tools to evaluate and understand compression performance in real-world settings. To bridge this crucial gap, first, this paper presents a comprehensive benchmark suite to evaluate the out-of-distribution (OOD) performance of image compression methods. Specifically, we design CLIC-C and Kodak-C by introducing 15 common corruptions to popular CLIC and Kodak benchmarks. Next, we propose spectrally inspired introspection tools to gain a deeper understanding of errors introduced by image compression methods as well as their OOD performance. To this end, we carry out a detailed performance comparison of the classical codec with various variants of NIC (e.g., original, variable rate, pruned), revealing intriguing findings that challenge our current understanding of the strengths and limitations of NIC. Finally, we corroborate our empirical findings with theoretical analysis, providing an in-depth view of the OOD performance of NIC. Our benchmarks, spectral introspection tools, and findings provide a crucial bridge to the real-world adoption of NIC. We hope that our work will propel future efforts in designing more robust and generalizable NIC methods.

neural networks, Variational Autoencoder, robustne↗
DOE OSTI2020

JWST Noise Floor. I. Random Error Sources in JWST NIRCam Time Series

James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) transmission and emission spectra will provide invaluable glimpses of transiting exoplanet atmospheres, including possible biosignatures. This promising science from JWST, however, will require exquisite precision and understanding of systematic errors that can impact the time series of planets crossing in front of and behind their host stars. Here, we provide estimates of the random noise sources affecting JWST Near-Infrared Camera (NIRCam) time-series data on the integration-to-integration level. We find that 1/f noise can limit the precision of grism time series for two groups (230–1000 ppm depending on the extraction method and extraction parameters), but will average down like the square root of N frames/reads. The current NIRCam grism time-series mode is especially affected by 1/f noise because its GRISMR dispersion direction is parallel to the detector fast-read direction, but could be alleviated in the GRISMC direction. Care should be taken to include as many frames as possible per visit to reduce this 1/f noise source: thus, we recommend the smallest detector subarray sizes one can tolerate, four output channels, and readout modes that minimize the number of skipped frames (RAPID or BRIGHT2). We also describe a covariance-weighting scheme that can significantly lower the contributions from 1/f noise as compared to sum extraction. We evaluate the noise introduced by pre-amplifier offsets, random telegraph noise, and high dark current resistor capacitor (RC) pixels and find that these are correctable below 10 ppm once background subtraction and pixel masking are performed. We explore systematic error sources in a companion paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Numerical algorithms for water waves with background flow over obstacles and topography

Abstract We present two accurate and efficient algorithms for solving the incompressible, irrotational Euler equations with a free surface in two dimensions with background flow over a periodic, multiply connected fluid domain that includes stationary obstacles and variable bottom topography. One approach is formulated in terms of the surface velocity potential while the other evolves the vortex sheet strength. Both methods employ layer potentials in the form of periodized Cauchy integrals to compute the normal velocity of the free surface, are compatible with arbitrary parameterizations of the free surface and boundaries, and allow for circulation around each obstacle, which leads to multiple-valued velocity potentials but single-valued stream functions. We prove that the resulting second-kind Fredholm integral equations are invertible, possibly after a physically motivated finite-rank correction. In an angle-arclength setting, we show how to avoid curve reconstruction errors that are incompatible with spatial periodicity. We use the proposed methods to study gravity-capillary waves generated by flow around several elliptical obstacles above a flat or variable bottom boundary. In each case, the free surface eventually self-intersects in a splash singularity or collides with a boundary. We also show how to evaluate the velocity and pressure with spectral accuracy throughout the fluid, including near the free surface and solid boundaries. To assess the accuracy of the time evolution, we monitor energy conservation and the decay of Fourier modes and compare the numerical results of the two methods to each other. We implement several solvers for the discretized linear systems and compare their performance. The fastest approach employs a graphics processing unit (GPU) to construct the matrices and carry out iterations of the generalized minimal residual method (GMRES).

Ambrose, David M.↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Review and Outlook on Experimental Advances and Innovations in Geological CO 2 Storage: Insights from Depleted Gas Reservoirs and Saline Aquifers

Geological storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in depleted gas reservoirs and deep saline aquifers is a key part of global decarbonization efforts. As carbon capture and storage advances toward commercial-scale deployment, the credibility and scalability of laboratory experiments are increasingly vital for guiding safe and effective field implementation. This review offers a comprehensive, cross-scale evaluation of experimental methodologies, including core flooding, high-pressure, high-temperature systems, microfluidic visualization, and emerging systems such as multilayer commingled/compartmentalized core flooding, 3D-printed micromodels, and AI-powered digital twins. These innovations are demonstrated to enhance representativeness, reproducibility, and real-time insight, thereby addressing the limitations of conventional workflows. A critical analysis of methodological gaps, such as inconsistent pressure–temperature conditions, oversimplified brine chemistry, and a lack of standardization, reveals experimental sources of scale translation errors and performance uncertainty. By comparing the unique challenges of depleted gas reservoirs (such as low water saturation and legacy well leakage) to those of saline aquifers (including pressure buildup and caprock integrity), this review identifies formation-specific priorities for experimental design. Novel contributions include a synthesis of best practices, integration strategies for model calibration, and recommendations for standardizing core handling, saturation procedures, and reporting protocols. Furthermore, this work serves as a guide for developing robust, field-relevant experimental strategies that can increase the deployment and regulatory acceptance of CO 2 storage technologies at scale.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Fluid Flow Pressure and Saturation Prediction Accuracy and Reducing Uncertainty with Committee Machine – Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP) as a Case Study

Presentation at the 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies GHGT-17 held in Calgary, Canada, October 20-24, 2024. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a way to play a critical role in the global transition to a low-emission economy. Current progress is hampered by a number of factors, among which the lack of risk-informed design tools and decision support frameworks is seen as a major roadblock. Significant interest exists in using artificial intelligence to accelerate CCS site feasibility studies, as well as to facilitate the permit application process. Existing works commonly train a single deep learning model. This work investigates the feasibility of using a conventional ensemble learning (committee machine) technique to further improve prediction accuracy. Ensemble-based algorithms generally improve over individual base learners in terms of robustness and accuracy. Deep ensembles, however, are time-consuming to create and train. A pragmatic question is whether small-sized ensembles may lead to prediction improvement. Here we evaluated the efficacy of an ensemble learning technique using the latent spectral model (LSM), an efficient deep neural operator algorithm, as base learners. Preliminary results, obtained using the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project (IBDP) carbon sequestration data/model, show that small-sized ensembles can improve prediction over the base learners, achieving prediction accuracy of ~1.6 psi root mean square error (RMSE) on pressure (relative the average reservoir pressure of 3150 psi), and less than 1.3% for saturation.

Sun, Alexander↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Fluid Flow Pressure and Saturation Prediction Accuracy and Reducing Uncertainty with Committee Machine – Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP) as a Case Study

This is the conference paper accompanying an oral presentation at the 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies GHGT-17 held in Calgary, Canada, October 20-24, 2024. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a way to play a critical role in the global transition to a low-emission economy. Current progress is hampered by a number of factors, among which the lack of risk-informed design tools and decision support frameworks is seen as a major roadblock. Significant interest exists in using artificial intelligence to accelerate CCS site feasibility studies, as well as to facilitate the permit application process. Existing works commonly train a single deep learning model. This work investigates the feasibility of using a conventional ensemble learning (committee machine) technique to further improve prediction accuracy. Ensemble-based algorithms generally improve over individual base learners in terms of robustness and accuracy. Deep ensembles, however, are time-consuming to create and train. A pragmatic question is whether small-sized ensembles may lead to prediction improvement. Here we evaluated the efficacy of an ensemble learning technique using the latent spectral model (LSM), an efficient deep neural operator algorithm, as base learners. Preliminary results, obtained using the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project (IBDP) carbon sequestration data/model, show that small-sized ensembles can improve prediction over the base learners, achieving prediction accuracy of ~1.6 psi root mean square error (RMSE) on pressure (relative the average reservoir pressure of 3150 psi), and less than 1.3% for saturation.

Sun, Alexander↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Accelerated Approach for Computationally Efficient Evaluation of Deflagration Time During Abnormal Thermal Events

The challenges of modeling abnormal thermal events for explosives of interest to LLNL can be simplified by an accelerated approach to calculate Prout-Tompkins (P-T) parameters describing autocatalytic deflagration. Rather than depending on detailed modeling in multiphysics codes that include chemical reactivity (e.g. ALE3D), the accelerated approach can calculate P-T parameters based solely on experimental time of deflagration measurements for the explosive of interest. We compare deflagration time for five explosives with previously known P-T parameters at conditions typical of abnormal thermal events and demonstrate that the accelerated approach produces deflagration predictions with a maximum error of 3% and an average error of 1.7%. While the accelerated approach may not be applicable to all experimental conditions, it holds promise of rapid derivation of P-T parameters for accurate modeling of abnormal thermal events of interest to LLNL.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic data-driven multiscale modeling for predicting the degradation of a 316L stainless steel nuclear cladding material

Here, we have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Data-Driven Multiscale Modeling for Predicting Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of 316L Stainless Steel

We have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗