Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “threat analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2003

Diabatic Initialization of Mesoscale Models in the Southeastern United States: Can 0 to 12h Warm Season QPF be Improved?

It is well known that numerical warm season quantitative precipitation forecasts lack significant skill for numerous reasons. Some are related to the model--it may lack physical processes required to realistically simulate convection or the numerical algorithms and dynamics employed may not be adequate. Others are related to initialization-mesoscale features play an important role in convective initialization and atmospheric observation systems are incapable of properly depicting the three-dimensional stability structure at the mesoscale. The purpose of this study is to determine if a mesoscale model initialized with a diabatic initialization scheme can improve short-term (0 to 12h) warm season quantitative precipitation forecasts in the Southeastern United States. The Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) developed at the Forecast System Laboratory is used to diabatically initialize the Pennsylvania State University/National center for Atmospheric Research (PSUNCAR) Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5). The SPORT Center runs LAPS operationally on an hourly cycle to produce analyses on a 15 km covering the eastern 2/3 of the United States. The 20 km National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Rapid Update Cycle analyses are used for the background fields. Standard observational data are acquired from MADIS with GOES/CRAFT Nexrad data acquired from in-house feeds. The MM5 is configured on a 140 x 140 12 km grid centered on Huntsville Alabama. Preliminary results indicate that MM5 runs initialized with LAPS produce improved 6 and 12h QPF threat scores compared with those initialized with the NCEP RUC.

Lapenta, William M.↗
NASA NTRS1986

A high resolution spatial and temporal multiple Doppler analysis of a microburst and its application to aircraft flight simulation

Multiple Doppler radar data collected during the Joint Airport Weather Studies (JAWS) Project is used to synthesize the three-dimensional wind in the region of a microburst. The particular microburst used in this study is the strongest one to date for which three-dimensional winds have been recovered. As a diagnostic tool, a six-DOF numerical aircraft model having characteristics similar to 727 series aircraft is used to investigate jet transport aircraft response to observed microburst winds during simulated approaches and departures. Simple pilot control laws are used to adjust thrust, pitch, roll, and yaw so as to maintain given approach or departure parameters. Generally, when horizontal wind shear along the approach or departure path is 0.01/s or greater, the model is unable to maintain the desired approach path and suffers a significant reduction in climb performance during a go-around or departure. Although the mean wind shear along a path gives a good qualitative measure of the wind shear threat to a jet transport, different paths with similar mean shears can yield markedly different results, as do the same paths through the microburst at different times. These findings are a direct consequence of the fine temporal and spatial scale of microburst winds. During any given modeled aircraft traverse through the region of highest horizontal shear, time variations in the microburst wind field are shown to have an insignificant effect on the modeled flight path. This is because the traverse period is short (30 s) compared to the lifetime of a microburst (300-600 s).

Elmore, K. L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Achieving the Proper Balance Between Crew and Public Safety

A paramount objective of all human-rated launch and reentry vehicle developers is to ensure that the risks to both the crew onboard and the public are minimized within reasonable cost, schedule, and technical constraints. Past experience has shown that proper attention to range safety requirements necessary to ensure public safety must be given early in the design phase to avoid additional operational complexities or threats to the safety of people onboard, and the design engineers must give these requirements the same consideration as crew safety requirements. For human spaceflight, the primary purpose and operational concept for any flight safety system is to protect the public while maximizing the likelihood of crew survival. This paper will outline the policy considerations, technical issues, and operational impacts regarding launch and reentry vehicle failure scenarios where crew and public safety are intertwined and thus addressed optimally in an integrated manner. An overview of existing range and crew safety policy requirements will be presented. Application of these requirements and lessons learned from both the Space Shuttle and Constellation Programs will also be discussed. Using these past programs as examples, the paper will detail operational, design, and analysis approaches to mitigate and balance the risks to people onboard and in the public. Manned vehicle perspectives from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and Air Force organizations that oversee public safety will be summarized as well. Finally, the paper will emphasize the need to factor policy, operational, and analysis considerations into the early design trades of new vehicles to help ensure that both crew and public safety are maximized to the greatest extent possible.

Gowan, John↗
NASA NTRS1991

Conceptual design of an orbital debris collector

The current Lower Earth Orbit (LEO) environment has become overly crowded with space debris. An evaluation of types of debris is presented in order to determine which debris poses the greatest threat to operation in space, and would therefore provide a feasible target for removal. A target meeting these functional requirements was found in the Cosmos C-1B Rocket Body. These launchers are spent space transporters which constitute a very grave risk of collision and fragmentation in LEO. The motion and physical characteristics of these rocket bodies have determined the most feasible method of removal. The proposed Orbital Debris Collector (ODC) device is designed to attach to the Orbital Maneuvering Vehicle (OMV), which provides all propulsion, tracking, and power systems. The OMV/ODC combination, the Rocket Body Retrieval Vehicle (RBRV), will match orbits with the rocket body, use a spin table to match the rotational motion of the debris, capture it, despin it, and remove it from orbit by allowing it to fall into the Earth's atmosphere. A disposal analysis is presented to show how the debris will be deorbited into the Earth's atmosphere. The conceptual means of operation of a sample mission is described.

Odonoghue, Peter↗
NASA NTRS2018

Simulation of Charge Collection to Spacecraft Surfaces: Freja Satellite

As spacecraft travel through plasma, spacecraft surfaces become charged by the collection of charged particles. This process is referred to as Surface Charging. These charges can be detrimental to the vehicle's electronic subsystems as they present a threat of electrostatic discharge (ESD) to onboard circuitry. The process of Surface Charging is complex and is affected by many elements. The charging of each surface is unique. The potential of an individual surface is dependent upon many variables including but not limited to the surface's geometry, material and its location. Each surface also has unique interactions with the surrounding plasma. Other factors that play large roles in the charging process is the density and temperature of plasma ions and electrons. Using Nascap-2k, a model of the Freja satellite has been constructed, and its auroral plasma environment has been imitated to simulate surface charging characteristics. The charging process of the Freja satellite has been modeled iteratively with incremental changes in both the Maxwellian electron temperature (eV) as well as the Gaussian electron energy (eV). This study provides an analysis of the sensitivity between spacecraft surface charging and these two primary variables of electron differential flux.

Wolfley, Olivia H.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Simulation of Charge Collection to Spacecraft Surfaces: Freja Satellite

As spacecraft travel through space plasma, spacecraft surfaces become charged by the collection of charged particles. This process is referred to as Surface Charging. These charges can be detrimental to the vehicle's electronic subsystems as they present a threat of electrostatic discharge (ESD) to onboard circuitry. The process of Surface Charging is complex and is affected by many elements. The charging of each surface is unique. The potential of an individual surface is dependent upon many variables including but not limited to the surface's geometry, material and its location. Each surface also has unique interactions with the surrounding plasma. Other factors that play large roles in the charging process is the density and temperature of plasma ions and electrons. Using Nascap-2k, a model of the Freja satellite has been constructed, and its auroral plasma environment has been imitated to simulate surface charging characteristics. The charging process of the Freja satellite has been modeled iteratively with incremental changes in both the Maxwellian electron temperature (eV) as well as the Gaussian electron energy (eV). This study provides an analysis of the sensitivity between spacecraft surface charging and these two primary variables of electron differential flux.

Wolfley, Olivia Hope↗
NASA NTRS1995

[No Title]

Adequate performance was achieved relatively early in the development of ion engines and most subsequent development programs have focussed on demonstrating adequate engine life. The primary threats to engine reliability over the required service life are damage accumulation failure modes such as accelerator grid failure due to sputter erosion from charge exchange ions, erosion of discharge chamber components by lower energy ion sputtering and grid shorting by flakes of sputter-deposited material. These types of failure may typically be observed only after thousands of hours of operation. The purpose of this paper is to provide a critical review of the approaches used in past ion engine development programs to characterize and control these wearout failure mechanisms.

Ion Engine↗
NASA NTRS2014

Investigating Surveillance Performance for UAS Detect-and-Avoid Systems

Most unmanned aircraft systems will be required to be equipped with a detect-and-avoid system that is capable of maintaining appropriate separation from other aircraft. One of the critical components of detect-and-avoid systems is a surveillance system that identifies potential threat aircraft in real time and tracks these aircraft so that their future trajectories may be used to predict conflicts. The performance of the detect-and-avoid system generally depends on technical parameters of the surveillance system, such as the surveillance range. The quantitative requirements for detect-and-avoid systems will be determined to meet safety metrics for the operation of unmanned aircraft systems in the National Airspace System. This study employs a sensor model comprised of the surveillance range, and horizontal and vertical fields of regard that mainly characterize the overall performance of a surveillance system. In this study, potential metrics for evaluating the performance of a surveillance system were investigated through fast-time simulation with a traffic scenario that included both proposed unmanned aircraft flights and historical visual flight rule aircraft tracks. Using the simulation results, an overall analysis of encounter geometry highlights the encounter characteristics that relate surveillance parameters to safety metrics and detect-and-avoid system performance. Then, given several candidate surveillance volumes, performance and safety metrics are derived; these metrics include the ratio of undetected and late-detected violations and the time to violation at first detection. These example metrics demonstrate the utility of the database of encounters created in this work, a database which will be useful in the derivation of required detect-and-avoid surveillance system requirements.

Lee, Seung Man↗
NASA NTRS2022

Yonkers Urban Development II: Leveraging NASA Earth Observations to Support Modeling Urban Cooling Interventions and Urban Heat Vulnerability in Yonkers, New York

The City of Yonkers, New York, located in Westchester County, is experiencing rising temperatures which are a growing threat to the health and safety of its residents. Furthermore, the risk of heat-related illnesses and mortality disproportionately affects neighborhoods in Yonkers historically subjected to race-based housing segregation. To better understand these inequities, Groundwork Hudson Valley and NASA DEVELOP collaborated for a second term to evaluate community-level heat vulnerability, landcover distribution, street-level thermal comfort, and modeled urban cooling interventions. This team applied 2019 5-year American Community Survey (ACS) data and social and biophysical heat vulnerability variables established by the New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH), along with land surface temperature (LST) data collected from Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), and ISS ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) to identify communities in Yonkers in need of prioritized cooling intervention at the census tract level. Data from the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) provided relevant meteorological data for the ENVI-met model to conduct street-level thermal observations and model tree canopy cooling interventions in the Yonkers neighborhoods of Kimball and Old 7th Ward. The project results will support the prioritization and equitable distribution of cooling infrastructure in identified neighborhoods. Additionally, Groundwork Hudson Valley will use the analyses as a heat literacy tool to improve advocacy efforts and inform both residents and officials about how investment in deliberate modification to tree canopy cover improves the city’s thermal environment and helps mitigate extreme heat.

Tamara Barbakova↗
NASA NTRS2020

Charles River Watershed Water Resources: Assessing Flooding Vulnerability to Assist High Water Intervention and Urban Planning Programs in the Charles River Watershed

The Charles River watershed intersects 35 municipalities within the Boston Metropolitan Area and has a population of 1.2 million, making it one of the most densely populated watersheds in New England. In recent years, the watershed has observed higher rates of flood inundation, mainly due to increased development, extreme precipitation events, and increased surface runoff. As the frequency of flood events increases and a changing climate poses an ongoing threat to local communities, governments, and organizations in Massachusetts need accurate flood risk assessments. This project partnered with the Charles River Watershed Association, the Town of Natick’s Office of Sustainability, and the Massachusetts Audubon Society to assess the potential for watershed degradation, flood vulnerability, and flood susceptibility in the watershed. The team used Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-1 C-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR), and Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI) to assess the feasibility of identifying flood events using remote sensing. After identifying images that overlapped with the reported flood events, the team concluded that it was not feasible to use Earth observation data to detect localized flooding. Instead, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) 100-year floodplain was used as a proxy for areas where flooding may occur. The team used statistical analysis and supervised classification to develop a flood susceptibility map, incorporating factors like soil drainage, height above nearest drainage, and topographic wetness index. This was overlaid with demographic and socioeconomic data to create a flood vulnerability map. The flood susceptibility map captured over 2/3 of reported flood events in the watershed, an improvement over the 1/3 of events captured by the FEMA 100-year and 500-year floodplain maps.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗
NASA NTRS2021

Powder River Basin Water Resources: Mapping Russian Olive in the Powder River Basin to Inform Invasive Species Management

Since its introduction in the late 1800s, Elaeagnus augustifolia (Russian olive) has become a widespread invasive shrub that poses a threat to native riparian species in the United States by competing with native riparian plants for space and resources. To date, limited information on the distribution of Russian olive in the Powder River Basin of Montana and Wyoming have hampered management efforts and decision making. Here, we detect and model the distribution of Russian Olive using field surveys, ocular sampling, and variables from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI), and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) using the Random Forest algorithm. We derived topographic, spectral, and hydrological variables from Landsat 8 OLI, Sentinel-2 MSI, and SRTM to utilize as model inputs. The team was able to successfully create a spectral Russian olive detection map for the Powder River Basin (RMSE =15.44%, R2 = 0.6482). The team also examined change in stream channel geomorphology from 1984-2020 in a time-series analysis using Landsat visible imagery and the RivMap MATLAB package and found little change. Our results will help our partners at the Powder River County Weed Board, Gay Ranch, United States Geological Survey, and University of Northern Colorado to locate and prioritize areas for riparian habitat restoration and to understand the region’s hydrology and geomorphology.

Catherine Buczek↗
NASA NTRS2021

The Temporal and Spatial Development of dB/dt for Substorms

Ground induced currents (GICs) due to space weather are a threat to high voltage power transmission systems. However, knowledge of ground conductivity is the largest source of errors in the determination of GICs. A good proxy for GICs is dB/dt obtained from the Bx and By components of the magnetic field fluctuations. It is known that dB/dt values associated with magnetic storms can reach dangerous levels for power transmission systems. On the other hand, it is not uncommon for dB/dt values associated with substorms to exceed prior Pulkkinen and Molinski critical thresholds of 1.5 nT/s and 5 nT/s, respectively, and the temporal and spatial changes of the dB/dt associated with substorms, unlike storms, are not well understood. Using two dimensional maps of dB/dt over North America and Greenland derived from the spherical elementary currents, we investigate the temporal and spatial change of dB/dt for both a single substorm event and a two dimensional superposed epoch analysis of many substorms. Both the single event and the statistical analysis shows a sudden increase of dB/dt at substorm onset followed by an expansion poleward, westward, and eastward after the onset during the expansion phase. The area of dB/dt values exceeding the two critical thresholds from the initial onset dB/dt values showed little to no expansion equatorward. The temporal and spatial development of the dB/dt resembles the temporal and spatial change of the auroral emissions. Substorm values of dB/dt peak shortly after the auroral onset time and in at least one event exceeded 35 nT/s for a non-storm time substorm. In many of our 81 cases the area that exceeds the threshold of 1.5 nT/s is over several million square kilometers and after about 30 minutes the dB/dt values fall below the threshold level. These results address one of goals of the Space Weather Action Plan, which are to establish benchmarks for space weather events and improve modeling and prediction of their impacts on infrastructure. Plain language: The change in the ground magnetic field with respect to time (dB/dt) associated with magnetic storms (a large disturbance of the magnetic field of the earth) can reach dangerous levels for power transmission systems. On the other hand, substorms, which are a smaller more localized disturbance of the Earth’s magnetic field, are more common. It is not uncommon for substorm dB/dt values to also exceed dangerous levels and the temporal and spatial changes of the dB/dt associated with substorms, unlike storms, are not well understood. Our analysis shows a sudden increase of dB/dt at substorm onset, which peaks shortly after the start of the substorm, followed shortly after by an expansion northward, westward, and eastward after the onset.

ionospheric currents↗
NASA NTRS1996

Ra: The Sun for Science and Humanity

To guide the development of the Ra Strategic Framework, we defined scientific and applications objectives. For our primary areas of scientific interest, we choose the corona, the solar wind, the Sun's effect on the Earth, and solar theory and model development. For secondary areas of scientific interest, we selected sunspots, the solar constant, the Sun's gravitational field, helioseismology and the galactic cosmic rays. We stress the importance of stereoscopic imaging, observations at high spatial, spectral, and temporal resolutions, as well as of long duration measurements. Further exploration of the Sun's polar regions is also important, as shown already by the Ulysses mission. From an applications perspective, we adopted three broad objectives that would derive complementary inputs for the Strategic Framework. These were to identify and investigate: possible application spin-offs from science missions, possible solar-terrestrial missions dedicated to a particular application, and possible future applications that require technology development. The Sun can be viewed as both a source of resources and of threats. Our principal applications focus was that of threat mitigation, by examining ways to improve solar threat monitoring and early warning systems. We compared these objectives to the mission objectives of past, current, and planned international solar missions. Past missions (1962-1980) seem to have been focused on improvement of scientific knowledge, using multiple instrument spacecraft. A ten year gap followed this period, during which the results from previous missions were analyzed and solar study programmes were prepared in international organizations. Current missions (1990-1996) focus on particular topics such as the corona, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections. In planned missions, Sun/Earth interactions and environmental effects of solar activity are becoming more important. The corona is the centre of interest of almost all planned missions. It seems that no international long-term strategy has yet been adopted. For these plans the number of necessary future missions can be reduced and the onboard instrumentation can be optimized by performing a comparative analysis. The study of the corona must be done from different observing locations, orbits closer to the Sun, and by different means. The Cluster mission replacement is in progress; however, if the replacement is not implemented, the ISTP programme will fade after 1998. Furthermore, the physics of the Sun's interior should be emphasized more in the Mid- and Far-Term programmes. Finally, more emphasis should be placed on monitoring space weather and forecasting Sun/Earth interactions.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2010

First Earth-Based Detection of a Superbolide on Jupiter

Cosmic collisions can planets cause detectable optical flashes that range from terrestrial shooting stars to bright fireballs. On 2010 June 3 a bolide in Jupiter's atmosphere was simultaneously observed from the Earth by two amateur astronomers observing Jupiter in red and blue wavelengths, The bolide appeared as a flash of 2 s duration in video recording data of the planet. The analysis of the light carve of the observations results in an estimated energy of the impact of (0.9-4,0) x 10(exp 15) J which corresponds to a colliding body of 8-13 m diameter assuming a mean density of 2 g/cu cm. Images acquired a few days later by the Hubble Space Telescope and other large ground-based facilities did not show any signature of aerosol debris, temperature, or chemical composition anomaly, confirming that the body was small and destroyed in Jupiter's upper atmosphere. Several collisions of this size may happen on Jupiter on a yearly basis. A systematic study of the impact rate and size of these bolides can enable an empirical determination. of the flux of meteoroids in Jupiter with implications for the populations of small bodies in the outer solar system and may allow a better quantification of the threat of impacting bodies to Earth. The serendipitous recording of this optical flash opens a new window in the observation of Jupiter with small telescopes.

Hueso, R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Active Debris Removal and the Challenges for Environment Remediation

Recent modeling studies on the instability of the debris population in the low Earth orbit (LEO) region and the collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 have underlined the need for active debris removal. A 2009 analysis by the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office shows that, in order to maintain the LEO debris population at a constant level for the next 200 years, an active debris removal of about five objects per year is needed. The targets identified for removal are those with the highest mass and collision probability products in the environment. Many of these objects are spent upper stages with masses ranging from 1 to more than 8 metric tons, residing in several altitude regions and concentrated in about 7 inclination bands. To remove five of those objects on a yearly basis, in a cost-effective manner, represents many challenges in technology development, engineering, and operations. This paper outlines the fundamental rationale for considering active debris removal and addresses the two possible objectives of the operations -- removing large debris to stabilize the environment and removing small debris to reduce the threat to operational spacecraft. Technological and engineering challenges associated with the two different objectives are also discussed.

Liou, J. C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Flooding Vulnerability to Assist High Water Intervention and Urban Planning Programs in the Charles River Watershed with NASA DEVELOP

The Charles River watershed intersects 35 municipalities within the Boston Metropolitan Area and has a total population of 1.2 million, making it one of the most densely populated watersheds in New England. In recent years, the watershed has observed higher rates of flood inundation, mainly due to increased development, extreme precipitation events, and increased surface runoff. As the frequency of flooding events increases and a changing climate poses an ongoing threat to local communities, governments and organizations in Massachusetts are in need of accurate flood risk assessments. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the Charles River Watershed Association, the Town of Natick’s Office of Sustainability, and the Massachusetts Audubon Society to assess flood vulnerability and susceptibility in the watershed. The team used Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper, Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager, Sentinel-1 C-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar, and Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument to assess the feasibility of identifying the extent of past flood events using remote sensing. After identifying images that overlapped with reported flood events, the team concluded that it was not feasible to use Earth observation data to detect localized flooding in the time available for this study. Instead, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) 100-year floodplain was used as a proxy for areas where flooding may occur. The team used statistical regression analysis and validation and supervised classification to develop a flood susceptibility map, incorporating several flood conditioning factors. The susceptibility maps were calibrated to various thresholds, including two that highlight hypothetical flooding under more liberal and more conservative planning scenarios. These were overlaid with demographic and socioeconomic data to create flood vulnerability maps. The team’s flood susceptibility maps showed an improvement in capturing known flood events over the FEMA 100-year and 500-year floodplain maps. These results will be improved with the addition of stormwater drainage mapping and precipitation data. Results can be used to fill in the gaps to help the stakeholders understand their communities’ vulnerability and susceptibility to flooding and improve their preparedness plans.

Trista Brophy↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Merging Analytic Collaborative Frameworks with New Observing Strategies Toward a Digital Twin: Earth – Episodic Pulse Event Impacts on Ocean Carbon Cycle as an Example

Virtual representations of the Earth will allow us to address some of the most critical environmental issues of our time. Here, we show the first steps toward representation of riverine, estuarine, and coastal carbon processes to enable scenario driven “what-if” analyses of the carbon system and human footprint. Excess sediment and nutrient runoff from land-based human activities impact water quality and can pose serious threats to coastal and marine ecosystems. Episodic pulse events, such as extreme precipitation events, can increase the amount of nutrients entering estuaries and coastal regions, potentially leading to large phytoplankton blooms followed by anoxic conditions. Consequences of coastal runoff are predicted to increase with the higher intensity and frequency of extreme events. Beyond the threat to coastal ecosystems, recent findings suggest these episodic pulses might play a significant role for biological production influencing regional and global carbon fluxes and budgets. An improved understanding of these events through optimal, dynamic observing strategies will increase our knowledge of the land-ocean continuum and how regional events and nutrient fluxes affect the carbon cycle and ocean ecosystem. This conceptual framework enables focused science investigations by pairing data analytics and artificial intelligence tools (otherwise termed an Analytic Center Framework, ACF) with targeted measurement acquisition through distributed sensing and intelligent asset tasking (or New Observing Strategies, NOS). This NOS and ACF iterative approach acquires and integrates complementary and coincident satellite, in-situ and model data to build a more complete and in-depth picture of science phenomena. Specifically, Apache Science Data Analytic Platform (SDAP) is extended to incorporate relevant datasets for data access, harmonized analysis, and anomaly detection. When conditions are met for a likely pulse event, NASA’s D-SHIELD (Distributed Spacecraft with Heuristic Intelligence to Enable Logistical Decisions) tool is triggered to optimize asset overpass frequency and schedule observations for persistent monitoring. Targeted data is ingested by SDAP for enhanced investigation via iterative analysis until the trigger criteria is no longer met - steps toward a digital twin.

Laura Rogers↗
NASA NTRS2021

Intergenerational Inequities in Exposure to Climate Extremes: Young Generations Are Severely Threatened By Climate Change

Under continued global warming, extreme events such as heat waves will continue to rise in frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial extent over the next decades. Younger generations are therefore expected to face more such events across their lifetimes compared with older generations. This raises important issues of solidarity and fairness across generations that have fueled a surge of climate protests led by young people in recent years and that underpin issues of intergenerational equity raised in recent climate litigation. However, the standard scientific paradigm is to assess climate change in discrete time windows or at discrete levels of warming, a “period” approach that inhibits quantification of how much more extreme events a particular generation will experience over its lifetime compared with another. By developing a “cohort” perspective to quantify changes in lifetime exposure to climate extremes and compare across generations (see the first figure), we estimate that children born in 2020 will experience a two- to sevenfold increase in extreme events, particularly heat waves, compared with people born in 1960, under current climate policy pledges. Our results highlight a severe threat to the safety of young generations and call for drastic emission reductions to safeguard their future. Meteorological extremes, hazards, or climate change impacts are mostly studied as they evolve over time under varying emission scenarios and socioeconomic pathways. For example, applying a heat wave indicator (see table S1) to four bias-adjusted global climate models indicates that the land area annually affected by such heat waves will increase from ~15% around 2020 to ~22% by 2100 under a scenario compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, and to ~46% under a scenario in line with current emission reduction pledges (see the first figure). Recent studies extended this approach, studying aspects of climate change as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) increments, highlighting the scenario-independence of several extreme event indicators but remaining, in essence, a comparison of time windows. By contrast, we performed a birth cohort analysis by combining a collection of multimodel extreme event projections with country-scale life expectancy information, gridded population data, and future global temperature trajectories from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (see supplementary materials). By integrating the exposure of an average person in a country or region to extreme events across their lifetime, we encapsulate spatiotemporal changes in climate hazards, population density, cohort size, and life expectancy (see the first figure).

global warming↗