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At least 235 records · Page 13

Deep-learning-based domain adaptation for cavity fault prediction at Jefferson Laboratory

Superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities are the core components of the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) at Jefferson Lab, providing high-power electron beams for nuclear physics experiments. The facility comprises 418 SRF cavities, and any fault in these cavities can lead to interruptions in the electron beam supply. Cavity faults are the leading cause of beam trips in CEBAF. Predicting and mitigating those faults before onset can help maintain normal operation. Existing models face challenges in distinguishing between normal and fault signals when changes occur in the underlying time-series data, from changes in control software, operational parameters, or the environment. This work proposes a deep learning domain adaptation model that leverages transfer learning to address fault prediction challenges by improving accuracy. The model is trained and fine-tuned using a dataset collected for faulty and normal operation using a data acquisition system in CEBAF. Our deep learning-based domain adaptation model achieves a prediction accuracy of 89.61% of the fault and normal signals. The developed model effectively predicts normal running signals compared to the baseline approach without domain adaptation. This capacity is essential for the fault prediction task in the CEBAF because of heavily imbalanced data containing vast amounts of normal signals. The model performs well for predicting faults several hundred milliseconds before the fault onset compared to other models where no adaptation is applied. Incorporating deep learning-based domain adaptation techniques will significantly improve the fault prediction performance.

Rahman, Md Monibor [Old Dominion Univ., Norfolk, V↗

Projecting manpower to attain quality

The resulting model is useful as a projection tool but must be validated in order to be used as an on-going software cost engineering tool. A procedure is developed to facilitate the tracking of model projections and actual data to allow the model to be tuned. Finally, since the model must be used in an environment of overlapping development activities on a progression of software elements in development and maintenance, a manpower allocation model is developed for use in a steady state development/maintenance environment. In these days of soaring software costs it becomes increasingly important to properly manage a software development project. One element of the management task is the projection and tracking of manpower required to perform the task. In addition, since the total cost of the task is directly related to the initial quality built into the software, it becomes a necessity to project the development manpower in a way to attain that quality. An approach to projecting and tracking manpower with quality in mind is described.

Rone, K. Y.↗

NAS Parallel Benchmark. Results 11-96: Performance Comparison of HPF and MPI Based NAS Parallel Benchmarks

High Performance Fortran (HPF), the high-level language for parallel Fortran programming, is based on Fortran 90. HALF was defined by an informal standards committee known as the High Performance Fortran Forum (HPFF) in 1993, and modeled on TMC's CM Fortran language. Several HPF features have since been incorporated into the draft ANSI/ISO Fortran 95, the next formal revision of the Fortran standard. HPF allows users to write a single parallel program that can execute on a serial machine, a shared-memory parallel machine, or a distributed-memory parallel machine. HPF eliminates the complex, error-prone task of explicitly specifying how, where, and when to pass messages between processors on distributed-memory machines, or when to synchronize processors on shared-memory machines. HPF is designed in a way that allows the programmer to code an application at a high level, and then selectively optimize portions of the code by dropping into message-passing or calling tuned library routines as 'extrinsics'. Compilers supporting High Performance Fortran features first appeared in late 1994 and early 1995 from Applied Parallel Research (APR) Digital Equipment Corporation, and The Portland Group (PGI). IBM introduced an HPF compiler for the IBM RS/6000 SP/2 in April of 1996. Over the past two years, these implementations have shown steady improvement in terms of both features and performance. The performance of various hardware/ programming model (HPF and MPI (message passing interface)) combinations will be compared, based on latest NAS (NASA Advanced Supercomputing) Parallel Benchmark (NPB) results, thus providing a cross-machine and cross-model comparison. Specifically, HPF based NPB results will be compared with MPI based NPB results to provide perspective on performance currently obtainable using HPF versus MPI or versus hand-tuned implementations such as those supplied by the hardware vendors. In addition we would also present NPB (Version 1.0) performance results for the following systems: DEC Alpha Server 8400 5/440, Fujitsu VPP Series (VX, VPP300, and VPP700), HP/Convex Exemplar SPP2000, IBM RS/6000 SP P2SC node (120 MHz) NEC SX-4/32, SGI/CRAY T3E, SGI Origin2000.

Saini, Subash↗

Scalable Generation of High-fidelity Synthetic Population Ensembles

Used within social simulations, synthetic population ensembles enable uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for obtaining more robust model inference and prediction. A synthetic population ensemble is a series of plausible virtual reconstructions of an area’s population at the granularity of people and residences, generated stochastically to preserve privacy of the source population survey’s respondents. In this paper, we demonstrate the production of large synthetic population ensembles for the U.S. via Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s UrbanPop framework to support modeling of high spatial resolution energy affordability metrics from nationwide social surveys in collaboration with the fusionACS project. The study involves two scenarios: creating ensembles for (1) 17 U.S. metropolitan areas in 2019 and (2) full U.S. Census Divisions in 2023, with each scenario consisting of 41 population instances (a base realization and 40 replicates). To accomplish this task at scale, we configured an integrated system within a research cloud, comprised of virtual containerizations, GPU-enhanced functionality, and orchestrated deployments of UrbanPop’s maturing Likeness Python ecosystem. Results demonstrate we maintained high-fidelity approximations of residential totals by areas of interest and the demographic characteristics of neighborhoods while reducing manual workflow burdens. Finally, we discuss plans to fine-tune and further develop our automated workflows for truly distributed job orchestration to increase computational efficiency, as well as provide an outlook for broadening applications of the ensembles.

Cluster computing↗

Evaluating the Performance of Integer Sum Reduction in SYCL on GPUs

SYCL is a promising programming model for heterogeneous computing—allowing a single-source code to target devices from multiple vendors. One significant task performed on these accelerators is a primitive operation for integer sum reduction. This paper presents several SYCL implementations of integer sum reduction—using atomic functions, shared local memory, vectorized memory accesses and parameterized workload sizes—to compare the performance and maturity of SYCL against open-source vendor-specific implementations of the same reduction. For a sufficiently large number of integers, tuning the parameters of our SYCL implementations achieves 1.4X speedup over the open-source implementations on an Intel UHD630 integrated GPU. The SYCL reduction is 3% faster than the templated reduction in Thrust, and 0.3% faster than the device reduction in CUB on an Nvidia P100 GPU. The SYCL reduction is 1.9% faster than the templated reduction in Thrust, and 0.4% faster than the device reduction in CUB on an Nvidia V100 GPU.

Jin, Zheming↗

Enhancing Air Traffic Control Planning with Automatic Speech Recognition

The decisions made during the Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Control System Command Center's planning teleconferences hold significant sway over the National Airspace System. Held every two hours, these teleconferences convene air traffic managers and stakeholders from across the nation to discuss airspace conditions, weather, and constraints, leading to the formulation and adjustment of traffic management initiatives. Given the critical nature of these decisions, the need for accurate and efficient record-keeping is paramount. In recent years, the application of automatic speech recognition has gained popularity across diverse industries, including aviation. While traditional applications focus on transcribing air traffic control communication, this paper explores a unique application of automatic speech recognition by converting the audio from planning teleconferences into text transcriptions. This innovative approach addresses key challenges in the field, presenting potential benefits for quality assurance, real-time participation, and downstream natural language processing tasks. A notable breakthrough in the machine learning community, namely the transformer neural network architecture, forms the backbone of the proposed solution in this paper. The transformer architecture's role in this research represents a paradigm shift in the efficiency of automatic speech recognition models. By reducing the amount of in-domain training data required, this architecture allows for the fine-tuning of such models like Whisper, originally pretrained on vast English speech datasets. The adaptability of the transformer architecture proves invaluable in capturing the nuances of aviation terminology and specific language used in planning teleconferences. Leveraging the Whisper model as a baseline, our research details the fine-tuning and validation using a dataset comprising 20 hours of meticulously transcribed planning teleconferences. Notably, the baseline pretrained Whisper model exhibited a word error rate of 18.77%. Through the fine-tuning process, the model achieved a substantial improvement, demonstrating an impressive performance with a reduced word error rate of 6.82%. This substantial decrease in WER not only highlights the effectiveness of the transformer architecture but also emphasizes the practical advancements achieved through the application of automatic speech recognition in this specific domain. The utilization of automatic speech recognition in planning teleconferences in this work introduces several novelties. Firstly, the creation of text transcriptions offers a valuable tool for quality assurance and facilitates the efficient review of teleconferences. This is an important aspect of the proposed solution, given the time-sensitive and high-stakes nature of decisions made during these meetings. Furthermore, text-searchable transcriptions provide a streamlined approach for locating and validating critical information, potentially saving hours of manual effort in searching through audio recordings. Moreover, our research identifies a key use case for external facilities and stakeholders. In situations where attendance at the planning teleconference is not feasible, having access to text transcriptions in real-time or shortly after the teleconference ends, proves to be a time-saving and informative resource. This feature enhances collaboration and ensures that stakeholders can stay abreast of important discussions and decisions even in their absence. Despite the efficiency gains facilitated by the transformer architecture in automatic speech recognition technology, it is essential to acknowledge the human factors in data creation. Subject matter experts play a crucial role in accurately transcribing planning teleconferences due to the specificity and complexity of the information discussed. The research dataset, consisting of 20 hours of transcribed planning teleconferences, forms the foundation for fine-tuning and validating the Whisper model. The achieved word error rate of 6.82% demonstrates promising advancements, particularly in recognizing essential aviation terminology within the teleconferences. In conclusion, this paper presents a comprehensive exploration of the application of automatic speech recognition in Air Traffic Control System Command Center planning teleconferences, leveraging the transformer architecture for enhanced efficiency. The novel contributions lie in the improved accessibility of decision-making records, real-time participation opportunities for external stakeholders, and the potential for downstream natural language processing advancements. As the aviation industry continues to evolve, the integration of automatic speech recognition technologies holds the promise of revolutionizing decision-making processes and contributing to the overall safety and efficiency of air traffic management.

ATM↗

Super resolution for root imaging

Premise High‐resolution cameras are very helpful for plant phenotyping as their images enable tasks such as target vs. background discrimination and the measurement and analysis of fine above‐ground plant attributes. However, the acquisition of high‐resolution images of plant roots is more challenging than above‐ground data collection. An effective super‐resolution (SR) algorithm is therefore needed for overcoming the resolution limitations of sensors, reducing storage space requirements, and boosting the performance of subsequent analyses. Methods We propose an SR framework for enhancing images of plant roots using convolutional neural networks. We compare three alternatives for training the SR model: (i) training with non‐plant‐root images, (ii) training with plant‐root images, and (iii) pretraining the model with non‐plant‐root images and fine‐tuning with plant‐root images. The architectures of the SR models were based on two state‐of‐the‐art deep learning approaches: a fast SR convolutional neural network and an SR generative adversarial network. Results In our experiments, we observed that the SR models improved the quality of low‐resolution images of plant roots in an unseen data set in terms of the signal‐to‐noise ratio. We used a collection of publicly available data sets to demonstrate that the SR models outperform the basic bicubic interpolation, even when trained with non‐root data sets. Discussion The incorporation of a deep learning–based SR model in the imaging process enhances the quality of low‐resolution images of plant roots. We demonstrate that SR preprocessing boosts the performance of a machine learning system trained to separate plant roots from their background. Our segmentation experiments also show that high performance on this task can be achieved independently of the signal‐to‐noise ratio. We therefore conclude that the quality of the image enhancement depends on the desired application.

Ruiz‐Munoz, Jose F.↗

Mitigate: An Adaptive Network Data Anonymization Tool Using Condensation-Based Differential Privacy

Modern network devices collect a large amount of data that can be analyzed to identify bottlenecks, anomalies, cyber-attacks, etc. Therefore, there is often a need to analyze such collections of network data quite often by an external expert or by the research community. However, these collections of data contain sensitive, proprietary information. In order for the network data to be shared, it must first be anonymized. The overall objective of this project is to develop an innovative privacy management tool to anonymize network data and achieve sufficient privacy, acceptable data utility, and efficient data analysis at the same time. No existing anonymization methods can achieve all of these at the same time. The core of this technology is a differential private clustering algorithm that provides strong privacy protection, preserves data properties important for subsequent analysis, and allows the party receiving the anonymized data to conduct analysis directly on anonymized data without the need of decryption or any extra processing. The research carried out was to design, implement and verify a solution to this problem by completing the following tasks: 1) developing the core technology; 2) developing a context based method that automatically recommends fields that must be anonymized; 3) conducted experiments showing superior results using our approach compared to existing tools, and 4) developed an intuitive but basic user interface. The research that was conducted generated novel algorithmic techniques that utilize state-of-the-art methods such as condensation, differential privacy preservation, clustering, automated tuning based on contextual awareness, and recommendation techniques to specify columns to users for anonymization leading to optimal privacy that allows research analysis on the dataset. Experiments were conducted to evaluate the efficacy of these novel algorithmic techniques by performing analysis on original non-anonymized datasets, then conducting analysis on the same yet anonymized datasets and comparing the results of the analyses. Overall, the anonymized analysis results were within 1% of the original results, verifying that the generated technology not only guarantees a high level of privacy but also enables research analysis as if it were conducted on the original dataset. Potential applications of this technology include anonymization of any type of structured network datasets that contain sensitive identifiers, such as IP addresses, that can be used in multiple applications. For example, to create an AI or machine learning model for cyber security, e.g., to detect attacks, or for performance analysis, e.g., identify bottlenecks or predict performance. In addition, a market analysis that was conducted for potential applications of this technology identified a broader range of applications of our anonymization technology beyond the network sector that includes healthcare, banking, insurance, securities, finance (FISB), data brokering, cloud services, ad sales, and government.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Memory-Efficient Onboard Rock Segmentation

Rockster-MER is an autonomous perception capability that was uploaded to the Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity in December 2009. This software provides the vision front end for a larger software system known as AEGIS (Autonomous Exploration for Gathering Increased Science), which was recently named 2011 NASA Software of the Year. As the first step in AEGIS, Rockster-MER analyzes an image captured by the rover, and detects and automatically identifies the boundary contours of rocks and regions of outcrop present in the scene. This initial segmentation step reduces the data volume from millions of pixels into hundreds (or fewer) of rock contours. Subsequent stages of AEGIS then prioritize the best rocks according to scientist- defined preferences and take high-resolution, follow-up observations. Rockster-MER has performed robustly from the outset on the Mars surface under challenging conditions. Rockster-MER is a specially adapted, embedded version of the original Rockster algorithm ("Rock Segmentation Through Edge Regrouping," (NPO- 44417) Software Tech Briefs, September 2008, p. 25). Although the new version performs the same basic task as the original code, the software has been (1) significantly upgraded to overcome the severe onboard re source limitations (CPU, memory, power, time) and (2) "bulletproofed" through code reviews and extensive testing and profiling to avoid the occurrence of faults. Because of the limited computational power of the RAD6000 flight processor on Opportunity (roughly two orders of magnitude slower than a modern workstation), the algorithm was heavily tuned to improve its speed. Several functional elements of the original algorithm were removed as a result of an extensive cost/benefit analysis conducted on a large set of archived rover images. The algorithm was also required to operate below a stringent 4MB high-water memory ceiling; hence, numerous tricks and strategies were introduced to reduce the memory footprint. Local filtering operations were re-coded to operate on horizontal data stripes across the image. Data types were reduced to smaller sizes where possible. Binary- valued intermediate results were squeezed into a more compact, one-bit-per-pixel representation through bit packing and bit manipulation macros. An estimated 16-fold reduction in memory footprint relative to the original Rockster algorithm was achieved. The resulting memory footprint is less than four times the base image size. Also, memory allocation calls were modified to draw from a static pool and consolidated to reduce memory management overhead and fragmentation. Rockster-MER has now been run onboard Opportunity numerous times as part of AEGIS with exceptional performance. Sample results are available on the AEGIS website at http://aegis.jpl.nasa.gov.

Burl, Michael C.↗

Comprehensive Oculomotor Behavioral Response Assessment (COBRA)

An eye movement-based methodology and assessment tool may be used to quantify many aspects of human dynamic visual processing using a relatively simple and short oculomotor task, noninvasive video-based eye tracking, and validated oculometric analysis techniques. By examining the eye movement responses to a task including a radially-organized appropriately randomized sequence of Rashbass-like step-ramp pursuit-tracking trials, distinct performance measurements may be generated that may be associated with, for example, pursuit initiation (e.g., latency and open-loop pursuit acceleration), steady-state tracking (e.g., gain, catch-up saccade amplitude, and the proportion of the steady-state response consisting of smooth movement), direction tuning (e.g., oblique effect amplitude, horizontal-vertical asymmetry, and direction noise), and speed tuning (e.g., speed responsiveness and noise). This quantitative approach may provide fast and results (e.g., a multi-dimensional set of oculometrics and a single scalar impairment index) that can be interpreted by one without a high degree of scientific sophistication or extensive training.

Stone, Leland S.↗

Tiling Framework for Heterogeneous Computing of Matrix based Tiled Algorithms

Tiling matrix operations can improve the load balancing and performance of applications on heterogeneous computing resources. Writing a tile-based algorithm for each operation with a traditional, hand-tuned tiling approach that uses for loops in C/C++ is cumbersome and error prone. Moreover, it must enable and support the heterogeneous memory management of data objects and also explore architecture-supported, native, tiled-data transfer APIs instead of copying the tiled data to continuous memory before the data transfer. The tiling framework provides a tiled data structure for heterogeneous memory mapping and parameterization to a heterogeneous task specification API. We have integrated our tiled framework into MatRIS (Math kernels library using IRIS). IRIS is a heterogeneous run-time framework with a heterogeneous programming model, memory model, and task execution model. Experiments reveal that the tiled framework for BLAS operations has improved the programmability of tiled BLAS and improved performance by ~20% when compared against the traditional method that copies the data to continuous memory locations for heterogeneous computing.

Miniskar, Narasinga Rao↗

What Went Wrong: A Survey of Wildfire UAS Mishaps through Named Entity Recognition

Increasingly, unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) are being applied to wildfire incidents for tasks such as mapping, aerial ignition, and delivery. As a result, aviation incident reporting systems for wildfires are beginning to accumulate data related to UAS mishaps in wildfire response. In this research, we apply state-of-the-art natural language processing (NLP) techniques to develop a custom Named Entity Recognition (NER) model which extracts entities relevant to safety analysts. The custom NER model is built by fine-tuning an existing Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) model, resulting in a generalizable NER model that can extract engineering relevant entities including failure modes, causes, effects, control processes, and recommendations from failure-relevant text. This model performs passably, with a weighted average f1 score of 0.33 across entity types, indicating more labeled training data is needed. Extracted entities are used to form a Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA)-style survey of wildfire UAS mishaps reported using the SAFECOM system. Similar mishaps are manually clustered and reported as single rows within an FMEA. Foreach cluster, we compute frequency, severity, and overall riskin accordance with FAA standards. This methodology can beapplied as part of a broader safety management system totrack trends in mishaps (e.g., likelihood, severity) and discoverknowledge (e.g., causes, effects) that can be utilized to improvesafety outcomes and system performance.

Machine Learning↗

Selective Amnesia using Contrastive Subnet Erasure for Class Level Unlearning in Vision Models

We study concept-level forgetting in pretrained vision models: removing an entire semantic category so the system no longer recognizes that object in unseen images and contexts, rather than merely forgetting specific training examples. Prior work either applies blunt global projections or fine-tunes parameters, which can introduce collateral damage to unrelated features, add compute, and become unstable as forgetting strength increases. We introduce Contrastive Subnet Erasure (CSE), a training-free, encoder-centric edit that targets a compact set of channels most responsible for the class and attenuates them in a calibrated manner. The modification is algebraically folded into the subsequent layer, yielding no inference-time overhead and leaving task heads unchanged. To evaluate whether forgetting generalizes beyond the data used to specify the class, we introduce a cross dataset protocol in which the class is defined on a source dataset and performance is measured on a disjoint target dataset drawn from a different distribution with no shared images. This setup tests whether the model still fails to recognize the object when it looks different or appears in new scenes, and it helps avoid overfitting to patterns in the source dataset. Across CIFAR 10, CIFAR 100, and ImageNet under this protocol, CSE achieves stronger forgetting of the target class while better preserving non target utility than existing baselines in both single class and multi class settings. Overall, CSE provides a simple, stable, and deployment-ready mechanism for class-level unlearning in vision.

Kotevska, Olivera [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000316772243)↗

Quantum annealing for jet clustering with thrust

Quantum computing holds the promise of substantially speeding up computationally expensive tasks, such as solving optimization problems over a large number of elements. In high-energy collider physics, quantum-assisted algorithms might accelerate the clustering of particles into jets. In this study, we benchmark quantum annealing strategies for jet clustering based on optimizing a quantity called “thrust” in electron-positron collision events. Here, we find that quantum annealing yields similar performance to exact classical approaches and classical heuristics, after tuning the annealing parameters. Without tuning, comparable performance can be obtained through a hybrid quantum/classical approach.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Towards Autonomous Experiments by Connecting High Performance Microscopy with High Performance Computing

The digitization of controls, data, and analysis in microscopy is bringing the idea of autonomous microscopes closer to reality than ever before. Automated transmission electron microscopy (TEM) is already fairly routine for some experiments the only require simple repetitive tasks such as imaging biological macromolecules for single particle cryoEM [1], tilt series for electron tomography [2], and movies for crystallography [3]. The vast majority of TEM experiments are conducted completely by human operators who choose the regions of interest, optimize experimental parameters, and make decisions about data quality visually during an experiment. The field is still a long way from having completely autonomous TEMs that can adapt to sample difficulties and tune experimental parameters based on data quality and desired experimental outcomes. Part of the issue is the lack of capability for feeding information learned from on-line, live data analysis back into the on-going experiment [4]. Furthermore, this presentation will discuss current capabilities for large scale data reduction and analysis using high performance computing (i.e. supercomputing) and progress towards developing a true feed-back loop that places data analysis and theory in the experimental loop.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Benchmarking Quantum Simulators Using Ergodic Quantum Dynamics

Here we propose and analyze a sample-efficient protocol to estimate the fidelity between an experimentally prepared state and an ideal target state, applicable to a wide class of analog quantum simulators without advanced spatiotemporal control. Our protocol relies on universal fluctuations emerging from generic Hamiltonian dynamics, which we discover in the present work. It does not require fine-tuned control over state preparation, quantum evolution, or readout capability, while achieving near optimal sample complexity: a percent-level precision is obtained with ~103 measurements, independent of system size. Furthermore, the accuracy of our fidelity estimation improves exponentially with increasing system size. We numerically demonstrate our protocol in a variety of quantum simulator platforms, including quantum gas microscopes, trapped ions, and Rydberg atom arrays. We discuss applications of our method for tasks such as multiparameter estimation of quantum states and processes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Constrained GAN-Generated X-Ray CT Data For Self-Supervised And Foundation-Model Segmentation Of Concrete Microstructures

Three-dimensional characterization of materials using X-ray computed tomography (XCT) is challenging due to the complexity of internal structures, noise, and variations in resolution. Traditional computer vision models often struggle to accurately segment these images, particularly in domain-specific applications like materials science. While supervised deep learning approaches have been developed to address the limitations of conventional algorithms, they typically require large amounts of labeled training data and often fail to generalize across different datasets. Self-supervised, few-and zero-shot learning methods have gained prominence in natural image processing and segmentation tasks, but their application to scientific imaging remains limited due to the unique structural complexity, noise, and textural artifacts present in materials science data. In this work, we investigate how domain adaptation, leveraging physics-based and GAN-generated synthetic data, impacts segmentation performance. We introduce a modified Contrastive Unpaired Translation (CUT) model designed to generate realistic labeled data, which can be used for training, pre-training, and fine-tuning segmentation models for real XCT microstructure data. We evaluate the performance of two segmentation approaches: a self-supervised network (SSL-ALPNet) and a foundation model (Segment Anything Model), assessing their improvements when pre-trained and/or fine-tuned on the synthesized data. Our results demonstrate that leveraging synthetic data significantly enhances segmentation performance, particularly in challenging materials science applications.

Ziabari, Amir [ORNL] (ORCID:000000034776457X)↗

LTAU-FF: Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty in atomistic Force Fields

Model ensembles are effective tools for estimating prediction uncertainty in deep learning atomistic force fields. However, their widespread adoption is hindered by high computational costs and overconfident error estimates. In this work, we address these challenges by leveraging distributions of per-sample errors obtained during training and employing a distance-based similarity search in the model latent space. Our method, which we call LTAU (Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty), efficiently estimates the full probability distribution function of errors for any test point using the logged training errors, achieving speeds that are 2–3 orders of magnitudes faster than typical ensemble methods and allowing it to be used for tasks where training or evaluating multiple models would be infeasible. We apply LTAU towards estimating parametric uncertainty in atomistic force fields (LTAU-FF), demonstrating that it produces well-calibrated confidence intervals and predicts errors that correlate strongly with the true errors for data near the training domain. Furthermore, we show that the errors predicted by LTAU-FF can be used in practical applications for detecting out-of-domain data, tuning model performance, and predicting failure during simulations. We believe that LTAU will be a valuable tool for uncertainty quantification in atomistic force fields and is a promising method that should be further explored in other domains of machine learning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗