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DOE OSTI2024

Regulatory Testing of RPP-WTP HLW Glasses to Support Delisting Compliance, VSL-04R4780-1, Rev. 0 (Sep 2004)

The primary goal of the testing described in this report was to collect data to demonstrate compliance of the immobilized high-level waste (IHLW) glasses with delisting requirements. The collected data will be used to support a petition to delist the IHLW glasses destined for the national disposal facility. The Delisting Data Quality Objectives (DQO) (Cook and Blumenkranz 2003) identified a list of (16) inorganic constituents of potential concern (COPCs) and their associated limits for delisting. These COPCs can be divided into three groups, Cases 1, 2, and 3, based on their Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure (TCLP) responses versus their respective delisting limits. To briefly summarize, Case 1 COPCs are those that, when loaded at their highest expected concentration in Waste Treatment Plant (WTP) glasses, are not expected to leach at their respective delisting limits when the glasses are exposed to the TCLP. Case 2 COPCs may reach the delisting limits in TCLP leachates of WTP glasses if loaded to concentrations near their maximum expected concentrations in glass. Finally, Case 3 COPCs are components that are likely to be present in concentrations sufficient to exceed their respective delisting limits in TCLP leachates of some possible glasses. The test objective was to show that, for (i) the expected range of inorganic contents in the waste feed to the Hanford WTP high level waste (HLW) vitrification facility, (ii) the expected range of glass product compositions, and (iii) the Case 1 and Case 2 COPCs identified by the DQO, the IHLW glasses meet all the relevant requirements for delisting. For Case 3 COPCs (i.e., Cd), the testing was to demonstrate the relationship between glass composition and TCLP cadmium (Cd) release, and then employ the results to develop TCLP-composition response models. During WTP operations, TCLP-composition models can be used to predict, within the required statistical uncertainties, TCLP responses of IHLW production glasses that are within the compositional region used to develop the model.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Strongly coupled edge states in a graphene quantum Hall interferometer

Electronic interferometers using the chiral, one-dimensional (1D) edge channels of the quantum Hall effect (QHE) can demonstrate a wealth of fundamental phenomena. The recent observation of phase jumps in a Fabry-Pérot (FP) interferometer revealed anyonic quasiparticle exchange statistics in the fractional QHE. When multiple integer edge channels are involved, FP interferometers have exhibited anomalous Aharonov-Bohm (AB) interference frequency doubling, suggesting putative pairing of electrons into 2e quasiparticles. Here, we use a highly tunable graphene-based QHE FP interferometer to observe the connection between interference phase jumps and AB frequency doubling, unveiling how strong repulsive interaction between edge channels leads to the apparent pairing phenomena. By tuning electron density in-situ from filling factor v < 2 to v > 7, we tune the interaction strength and observe periodic interference phase jumps leading to AB frequency doubling. Our observations demonstrate that the combination of repulsive interaction between the spin-split v = 2 edge channels and charge quantization is sufficient to explain the frequency doubling, through a near-perfect charge screening between the localized and extended edge channels. Our results show that interferometers are sensitive probes of microscopic interactions and enable future experiments studying correlated electrons in 1D channels using density-tunable graphene.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

MOSAiC studies of long-lasting mixed-phase cloud events and analysis of the liquid-phase properties of Arctic clouds

Vertically resolved observations of the temporal evolution of mixed-phase clouds (MPCs) were performed over the central Arctic during the MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) expedition, which lasted from October 2019 to September 2020. The research icebreaker Polarstern , drifting with the pack ice for more than 7 months, mostly at latitudes > 85° N, served as a platform for state-of-the-art remote sensing of aerosols and clouds. The use of the recently introduced dual field-of-view (FOV) polarization lidar technique in combination with the well-established lidar-radar retrieval technique provided, for the first time, a robust instrumental basis to monitor the evolution of the liquid and the ice phase of MPCs and the interplay between the two phases. Two long-lasting Arctic MPC events observed close to the North Pole in mid-winter (December 2019) and late summer (September 2020) are discussed to provide new insight into Arctic MPC evolution processes. In the second part of the article, cloud statistics, covering all seasons of a year, are presented. The focus is on the optical and microphysical properties of the liquid phase. These results are solely derived from the dual-FOV lidar observations. The key findings of the study can be summarized as follows: persistent activation of aerosol particles to form water droplets is of great importance for the longevity of MPCs. The observations confirm that ice formation occurs predominantly via immersion freezing. The field studies suggest that the free tropospheric reservoirs of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and of ice-nucleating particles (INPs) were always well filled, i.e., the clouds did not exhaust their supply of activatable and activated particles. The observation of long-lasting MPC events, low ice production rates, and a sufficiently large INP reservoir leads to the recommendation to use a time-dependent immersion freezing parameterization in MPC modeling efforts.

Jimenez, Cristofer [Leibniz Inst. for Tropospheric↗

DOE OSTI2022

Study of Excited Cascade Baryons and Preliminary Cross-Sections for Ξ(1530) Using Data from the GlueX Experiment

The spectra of predicted particles from elementary quark models (CQMs) are expansive, accurate for the low-lying spectra, but incomplete. The GlueX experiment at Jefferson Lab is a vehicle to study medium energy photoproduction of hadronic states. The primary goal of the GlueX collaboration is to study Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD, also known as the strong nuclear force) and the nature of quark confinement. The GlueX collaboration uses a polarized photon beam incident on a liquid hydrogen target (LH 2 ) to investigate the aftermath of photon-proton interactions. The cascade baryons, denoted by Ξ, are defined by having two, second-generation, strange quarks with an additional first-generation light quark (u or d). Experimentally, few cascades have been discovered, which is the antithesis of what most models expect. The cascades have some favorable attributes but are difficult to detect because the production cross sections are small and direct production is unlikely. Fortunately, in the 12 GeV era of the GlueX experiment, there is sufficient energy, beam time and data analysis tools for the detection of excited cascade states and their properties. From the reaction γ p →Κ + Κ + Ξ - π 0 , the invariant mass spectra of Ξ - π 0 system was surveyed for new possible resonances. The invariant mass spectrum has a strong Ξ(1530) signal with other smaller resonances throughout the spectrum. Preliminary cross sections for the Ξ(1530) that was photoproduced from the proton are presented at energies never before explored. While the Ξ(1530) couples almost exclusively to the Ξπ channel, there is an easily identifiable Ξ(1690) signal decaying Ξπ. Through the use of a simultaneous fitting routing of the Ξ*- mass spectra, I was able to observe the Ξ(1690) decaying to the KΛ, as well as to the Ξ - π 0 branch. With additional statistics, a measurement of the branching ratio should be possible. Lastly, a partial wave analysis (PWA) was completed to verify that the total angular momentum of Ξ(1530) is J = 3/2 and consistent with having positive parity. Additionally, there is evidence of a potentially interesting feature slightly above the mass of the Ξ(1530) that should be more fully explored as new GlueX data becomes available.

Sumner, Brandon↗

DOE OSTI2026

Microscopic theory of angular momentum distributions across the full range of fission fragments

Modern nuclear theory provides qualitative insights into the fundamental mechanisms of nuclear fission and is increasingly capable of making reliable quantitative predictions. Most quantities of interest pertain to the primary fission fragments, whose subsequent decay is typically modeled using statistical reaction models. Consequently, a key objective of fission theory is to inform these models by predicting the initial conditions of the primary fragments. Here, in this work, we employ a framework that combines joint angular momentum and particle number projection with time-dependent configuration mixing to calculate the angular momentum distributions of primary fragments. Focusing on the benchmark cases of neutron-induced fission of 235 U and 239 Pu , we predict—for the first time—microscopic angular momentum distributions for all fragments observed in experiments. Our results reveal a pronounced sawtooth pattern in the average angular momentum as a function of fragment mass, consistent with recent measurements. Additionally, we observe substantial variations in angular momentum distributions along isobaric chains, indicating that commonly used empirical formulas lack sufficient accuracy. We also quantify a strong correlation between the angular momentum and the deformation of the fragments at scission, and a weak correlation in the magnitude of the angular momentum between fragment partners. The generated data will enable estimation of the impact of microscopic distributions on fission spectra, paving the way toward fission modeling based on microscopic inputs.

Physics - Nuclear physics and radiation physics↗

DOE OSTI2020

VADER: A Tool for Criticality Safety Validation

The purpose of criticality safety is to prevent any inadvertent criticality from occurring during the handling or storage of fissile material. Calculations are frequently used to demonstrate that a sufficient subcritical margin exists. Validation is a key aspect of the evaluation process, establishing the suitability, accuracy, and associated uncertainty of the computational method and data to be used for the intended application. The validation process is performed by comparing the results of critical experiments with the calculated results from models of the experiments using the computational method to be validated. Laboratory critical experiments are controlled systems that achieve a k eff of approximately 1 in order to investigate the parameters at which such a critical condition is achieved. The validation parameters that are traditionally applied to safety analysis calculations are the bias and the bias uncertainty . The bias is the deviation of the average k eff of the validation suite from unity. The bias uncertainty accounts for the statistical uncertainty in the bias based on the standard deviation, sample size, and distribution of k eff values of the validation suite. The values of bias and bias uncertainty ensure that the systems predicted to be subcritical by the computational method will indeed be subcritical. The bias and bias uncertainty are often combined to determine an upper subcritical limit (USL) or computational margin that can then be applied to safety analysis calculations. Many methods have been developed by different organizations to calculate the bias and bias uncertainty for various types of criticality analyses. Each of these methods typically requires that the validity of various underpinning statistical assumptions be confirmed to demonstrate that the method is appropriate for the analysis of a given validation suite. An example of the validation decision making flow is shown in Fig.1. As shown in Fig. 1, the analyst performing the validation fits a trend line to the data and performs a test to determine if the trend was a statistically better representation of the data than if it were treated as an uncorrelated sample. If the trend line is a better representation of the data, then the analyst uses any one of a number of trending techniques to determine the bias and bias uncertainty. If a trend is not an appropriate representation of the data, then the analyst proceeds to perform a normality assessment for the data. If the normal assumption can be shown to be acceptable, then the analyst calculates the bias and bias uncertainty with the parametric technique. If the assumption of normality cannot be justified, then the nonparametric technique is used. Once the decision flow has been followed and the appropriate technique has been selected, the bias and bias uncertainty is typically combined with an administrative margin to determine a USL below which calculated values of k eff for safety analysis models can be considered subcritical. The calculations used in each decision are often performed with spreadsheets or with small programs available at various sites performing criticality analyses. Expertise in understanding and interpreting the results must be maintained to perform these calculations. This can often be an error-prone process. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is currently developing the Validation and Data Evaluation Resource (VADER) to simplify and automate the criticality safety validation process and to provide a software quality assurance pedigree to the calculational methods used. This paper discusses the use of the Fulcrum user interface with VADER, the anticipated initial capabilities of VADER to perform validation analyses, and the output from the code.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Errors in Effective Cluster Interactions of Lattice Gas Cluster Expansions

The promise of lattice gas (LG) cluster expansions (CEs) is that they can describe a given system property to any level of accuracy since the orthogonal “cluster basis functions” span the complete space of available configurations. Such an approach can be constructed to an arbitrarily large surface of a finite number of distinct adsorption sites. Unfortunately, this is only true for the case of an ideal, fixed lattice decorated with components at precise lattice points (the lattice “sites”) with no distortions or relaxations subsequently allowed. Since most systems, and surfaces specifically, do not conform to such an ideal set of constraints, errors in LG CEs must be expected or CE convergence severely hampered. Beyond this, numerical errors in the provided data can complicate the proper construction of a truly predictive and/or physically significant CE. In this work, we show here how reliance on typical statistical tools like confidence intervals cannot be expected to provide an accurate representation of the uncertainty of effective cluster interactions (ECIs) in the CE due to the nature of the target ab initio data and the nature of CEs themselves. We develop a method for estimating these errors that does not rely on statistical assumptions about the model or data. We then use these ECI errors to quantify fundamental consequences on the uncertainty of ECIs in CEs built from O/Fe(100) data whose surface and adsorbates have been allowed to relax in a typical manner and from O/Fe(100) data whose surface and adsorbates are fixed in ideal lattice positions. We also quantify the effect of using a different density functional theory exchange–correlation functional, using these ECI errors to assess the significance in any deviations. In both cases, our method is shown to have remarkable utility in the quantification of errors in the ECIs of CEs. While we stick to the lattice gas convention in this work, the method is equally applicable to the Ising convention or, in principle, any linear model of sufficient complexity.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Perturbative Stability and Error-Correction Thresholds of Quantum Codes

Topologically ordered phases are stable to local perturbations, and topological quantum error-correcting codes enjoy thresholds to local errors. We connect the two notions of stability by constructing classical statistical mechanics models for decoding general Calderbank-Shor-Steane codes and classical linear codes. Our construction encodes correction success probabilities under uncorrelated bit-flip and phase-flip errors, and simultaneously describes a generalized ℤ 2 lattice-gauge theory with quenched disorder. We observe that the clean limit of the latter is precisely the discretized imaginary-time path integral of the corresponding quantum code Hamiltonian when the errors are turned into a perturbative 𝑋 or 𝑍 magnetic field. Motivated by error-correction considerations, we define general order parameters for all such generalized ℤ 2 lattice-gauge theories, and show that they are generally lower bounded by success probabilities of error correction. For CSS codes satisfying the low-density parity-check condition and with a sufficiently large code distance, we prove the existence of a low-temperature ordered phase of the corresponding lattice-gauge theories, particularly for those lacking Euclidean spatial locality and/or when there is a nonzero code rate. We further argue that these results provide evidence for stable phases in the corresponding perturbed quantum Hamiltonians, obtained in the limit of continuous imaginary time. To do so, we distinguish space- and timelike defects in the lattice-gauge theory. A high free-energy cost of spacelike defects corresponds to a successful “memory experiment” and suppresses the energy splitting among the ground states, while a high free-energy cost of timelike defects corresponds to a successful “stability experiment” and points to a nonzero gap to local excitations.

quantum error correction↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning to discover mineral trapping signatures due to CO 2 injection

Mineral trapping is pursued as a geological CO 2 sequestration (GCS) mechanism because it permanently stores CO 2 in solid phases or minerals. However, CO 2 mineral-trapping mechanisms are poorly understood due to (1) lack of sufficient field and laboratory data characterizing these complex processes, and (2) challenges to develop site-specific reactive-transport models coupling fluid flow and geochemical reactions occurring at various temporal (from milliseconds to years) and spatial (from pore (millimeters) to field (kilometers)) scales. Reactive transport with additional complexities such as heterogeneity can make the simulation outputs even more difficult to interpret because of complex nonlinearity and multi-scale interdependencies. Furthermore, the values of model outputs such as concentrations can vary by several orders of magnitude, making it harder to correlate and characterize the impact of the variables via traditional data interpretation techniques such as exploratory data analyses. Recently, machine learning (ML) has shown promise in feature discovery and in highlighting hidden mechanisms that cannot be obtained by existing data-analytics and statistical methods. In this study, we applied an unsupervised ML approach, non-negative matrix factorization with custom -means clustering (NMF) to the data generated by reactive-transport simulations of GCS. The reactive-transport data consisted of 19 attributes, including four physio-chemical variables (pH, porosity, aqueous CO 2 , and sequestered CO 2 ), six chemical species (K + , Na + , HCO, Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , Fe 2+ ), and four carbonate minerals (calcite, dolomite, siderite, and ankerite), a feldspar mineral (albite), and four clay minerals (illite, clinochlore, kaolinite, and smectite) over a period of 200 years of simulation time. Furthermore, the simulation data used was for Morrow B sandstone at the Farnsworth hydrocarbon unit in Texas. Data are sampled at two locations within the model domain: (1) at the injection well and (2) 200 m west of the injection well. The injection was performed for a period of 10 years. Using NMF, we estimated the temporal interdependencies among the 19 attributes over a span of 200 years. We found that NMF was able to identify four reaction stages and their dominant attributes; these cannot be directly discerned through traditional visualization (e.g., line plots, Pareto analysis, Glyph-based visualization methods) or exploratory data analysis tools of the simulation data. The four stages were: reactions in the injection phase followed by short-, mid-, and long-term reactions. The NMF analysis also revealed that 10 among the 19 attributes are dominant. These dominant attributes for mineral trapping include calcite, dolomite at injection well, siderite at 200 m away from the injection well, clinochlore, kaolinite, Na + , K + , Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , pH, and aqeuous CO 2 . Finally, at late times (65–200 years), our results showed that calcite plays a major role in mineral trapping with insignificant contribution from siderite, ankerite, and clay minerals. These findings make the proposed unsupervised ML-model attractive for reactive-transport sensing towards real-time GCS monitoring.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reconstruction and Selection of Neutrino Interactions in MicroBooNE using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks

In this document, we describe a new reconstruction workflow developed for the MicroBooNE experiment. It features the use of Deep Convolutional Neural Networks trained to recognize key structures within the data sufficient for the 3D reconstruction of neutrino interactions within the detector. As a test of the reconstruction utility, the products of the reconstruction workflow are used to select inclusive charged-current (CC) $\nu_e$ and $\nu_\mu$ interactions in both simulated and real MicroBooNE data. In simulation, our $\nu_e$ and $\nu_\mu$ selections achieve an efficiency of 57% and 68\%, respectively, with a purity of 91% and 96%, respectively. We find that these selections are competitive with the inclusive selections used for the most recent MicroBooNE LEE searches. In particular, the CC-$\nu_e$ inclusive selection efficiency improves by over 20% while also improving sample purity. As a first step in quantifying potential bias, the data and Monte Carlo expectati ons are compared for both selections using the MicroBooNE open data. Within statistical and systematic uncertainties, both the electron and muon CC-inclusive event samples agree. A comparison of the real data events chosen by our work and another reconstruction framework shows that the two analyses each identify a sizeable fraction of events the other does not. This suggests that future analyses integrating the strengths of each could lead to combined gains. This work demonstrates, for the first time on real LArTPC data, state-of-the-art neutrino interaction reconstruction centered around deep learning algorithms.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Artificial Intelligence Application to D and D - 20492

As aging facilities across the DOE complex await decommissioning, there is an ongoing need to understand any changes in the structural conditions. Many of these facilities were built over 50 years ago and, in some cases, these facilities have gone beyond the expected operational lifetime. Many facilities have been placed in a state of 'cold and dark,' sitting unused and awaiting decommissioning. Especially challenging are the aging facilities that provide unique operational/production capabilities to support critical DOE missions and cannot be shut down. In any of these scenarios, the structural integrity of these facilities may become compromised as time passes. It is critical that adequate inspections be performed on a continual basis and that the data collected undergoes sufficient analysis to support timely identification of any new or worsening structural issues as well as prompt needed maintenance and repairs to maintain the facilities in a safe condition. In recent days, Artificial Intelligence (AI) [1] and its application to various domains are growing at fast speed. FIU is performing research in this area and exploring the associated technologies to solve nuclear decommissioning problems. Artificial intelligence refers to the capability of a program to autonomously act, react and adapt to the working environment. AI enables the machine to behave like humans and perform the cognitive functions such as 'learning' and 'problem solving'. AI systems gradually moving from traditional approaches (algorithms and expert systems) towards more efficient and advanced technologies (machine learning [1] and deep learning [2] [3]). AI is the study of algorithms and statistical models that is being used by computers to perform specific tasks without using explicit instructions. FIU is working to develop a pilot-scale infrastructure to implement structural health monitoring using AI technologies with focus on machine learning, deep learning. This research is focused on Computer Vision/Image Classification area of AI applications. This can also be expanded to other areas of AI related to Object Recognition and Character Recognition in images. In addition to utilizing existing data sets, FIU will collect and investigate image and video data using FIU test-bed mockups to monitor structural health of the facility. Resulting data will be processed and analyzed using machine learning/deep learning technologies. The proposed pilot system is intended to serve as a starting point to engage the DOE field sites on related data sets and their decision making needs. It is anticipated that proposed machine learning/deep learning technologies can be effectively employed using anomaly detection to solve EM challenges in surveillance and maintenance of the D and D facilities. FIU will work with research stakeholders to identify applications at various sites and other DOE facilities. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Early-time measure in eternal inflation

In a situation like eternal inflation, where our data is replicated at infinitely-many other space-time events, it is necessary to make a prior assumption about our location to extract predictions. The principle of mediocrity entails that we live at asymptotic late times, when the occupational probabilities of vacua has settled to a near-equilibrium distribution. In this paper we further develop the idea that we instead exist during the approach to equilibrium, much earlier than the exponentially-long mixing time. In this case we are most likely to reside in vacua that are easily accessed dynamically. Using first-passage statistics, we prove that vacua that maximize their space-time volume at early times have: 1. maximal ever-hitting probability; 2. minimal mean first-passage time; and 3. minimal decay rate. These requirements are succinctly captured by an early-time measure. The idea that we live at early times is a predictive guiding principle, with many phenomenological implications. First, our vacuum should lie deep in a funneled region, akin to folding energy landscapes of proteins. Second, optimal landscape regions are characterized by relatively short-lived vacua, with lifetime of order the de Sitter Page time. For our vacuum, this lifetime is ~ 10 130 years, which is consistent with the Standard Model estimate due to Higgs metastability. Third, the measure favors vacua with small, positive vacuum energy. This can address the cosmological constant problem, provided there are sufficiently many vacua in the entire ensemble of funnels. As a concrete example, we study the Bousso-Polchinski lattice of flux vacua, and find that the early-time measure favors lattices with the fewest number of flux dimensions. This favors compactifications with a large hierarchy between the lightest modulus and all other Kähler and complex structure moduli.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

When do short-range atomistic machine-learning models fall short?

In this work, we explore the role of long-range interactions in atomistic machine-learning models by analyzing the effects on fitting accuracy, isolated cluster properties, and bulk thermodynamic properties. Such models have become increasingly popular in molecular simulations given their ability to learn highly complex and multi-dimensional interactions within a local environment; however, many of them fundamentally lack a description of explicit long-range interactions. In order to provide a well-defined benchmark system with precisely known pairwise interactions, we chose as the reference model a flexible version of the Extended Simple Point Charge (SPC/E) water model. Our analysis shows that while local representations are sufficient for predictions of the condensed liquid phase, the short-range nature of machine-learning models falls short in representing cluster and vapor phase properties. These findings provide an improved understanding of the role of long-range interactions in machine learning models and the regimes where they are necessary.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Increasing Industry Involvement: A Solution from a Student's Perspective

Many engineering employers are finding that graduates are not sufficiently equipped to begin contributing productively when they exit a 4-year institution and enter the workforce. The Intern Professional Development Center (IPDC) is a proposed business model that exposes engineering undergraduates to industry-relevant knowledge, while providing them with working experience during their degree. Using a tri-stage approach, the IPDC engages with students early in their academic careers, provides continuous training and development opportunities, and finally connects the students with potential employers. The two topics most commonly under-represented in engineering programs are: - Familiarity with drafting software - Knowledge of relevant codes and standards. The Intern Professional Development Center (IPDC): A tri-stage solution for recruiting, training, and encouraging the workforce of tomorrow. An IPDC allows students to be active members of industry during their undergraduate careers, leading to: - Improved local talent retention; - Improved graduation and academic performance statistics; - Near-guarantee for post-graduation employment. In March of 2019, the first IPDC prototype began operating in the Tri-Cities, Washington. Since then, 3 undergraduate students have entered the IPDC at Stage 2, beginning with the standard training and professional development. Of those 3 students, 2 have already moved on to Stage 3, with successful ongoing internships with local employers. At a performance review for one of the IPDC's Stage 3 students after 90 days of employment, the direct manager said: 'How soon can we get another one?'.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Climate-Related Trends of Within-Storm Intensities Using Dimensionless Temporal-Storm Distributions

Huff curves are probabilistic time distributions of rainfall expressed as dimensionless cumulative percentages of storm depth and duration. Previous studies have documented development factors, spatial robustness, and the utility of Huff curves in practical applications. However, the effects of trending rainfall on Huff curve intensity patterns have not yet been studied. As such, the goal of this paper is to fill this gap by studying Huff curve patterns in a watershed with demonstrated increasing trends of temperature and precipitation, with the intention that it can be generalized to other areas in the US and the world. To achieve this goal, the high temporal resolution precipitation data collected from a high spatial density, 72-year precipitation-gauge network on the 4.25-km 2 North Appalachian Experimental Watershed in east-central Ohio were used. Seasonal storm pattern trends from 1939 to 2010 were investigated using dimensionless depth (with the frequency of 50%, $d_{50}$) and the curve variability $(V = d_{80} - d_{20})$ at three dimensionless within-storms time periods (three verticals). The Spearman rank correlation procedure (correlation coefficient, ρ and significance probability, p) was used to statistically determine trends over time using 8 periods of 4-season sets of Huff curves over the 72 years. Two averages of ρ and p were computed: (1) by averaging the individual ρ and p obtained from 10 gauges (AvgI); and (2) by grouped averaging of all individual gauge values of $d_{50}$ and V and then computing ρ and p (AvgG). The test results of individual gauges showed that 4 cases for $d_{50}$ and 23 cases for V were significant for all seasons and verticals (total of 120 cases for each variable). The test results of AvgI for $d_{50}$ and V and AvgG for $d_{50}$ showed no significant trends in all seasons and verticals. Only the AvgG for V led to a significant trend for V in spring and fall at different times within storm patterns. The data do not provide sufficient evidence at the p=0.05 significance level to reject the null hypothesis of unchanging position of the dimensionless depth of the 50% Huff curves for individual or averages for all seasons and verticals. Also, there is insufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis of unchanging variability, V, using the average ρ of individual gauges (AvgI for V) for all seasons and verticals. AvgG results showed a significant trend in V; however, this analysis may be affected by the nonindependence of storm data. The results suggest that it is likely that there is little if any effect of trending climate over approximately 70 years on Huff curve patterns. The results of this study add to the robustness characteristics of Huff curves and to their potential use in hydrological practice as design storms, as the foundation of stochastic storm generation, and for storm disaggregation, and they deserve further investigation. These different forms of inputs to watershed models have the potential to improve runoff estimation. The results suggest that, if verified in other studies, they have applicability to provide useful stationary precipitation patterns across the US and other areas of the world in areas of nonstationary climate. Also, individual rain gauge data may not be representative of trends even over small areas, and seasonal differences were noticeable as found in other studies. Recommendations are provided.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improving tropical cyclone rapid intensification forecasts with satellite measurements of sea surface salinity and calibrated machine learning

Forecasting rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TC) is a mission known for large errors. One under-researched factor that affects TC intensification is salinity, which is important for density stratification in certain ocean regions and can affect the surface enthalpy flux under a strengthening hurricane. To investigate the impact and efficacy of using salinity information in state-of-the-art forecasting, we use a statistical model consisting of a variety of machine learning (ML) methods. For salinity data, we use satellite measurements of pre-storm sea surface salinity (SSS) as a proxy for the salinity stratification. We train and test the model on various ocean basins, including the Atlantic, eastern North Pacific and western North Pacific. A calibrator is trained on top of the ML models to correct and enhance probability forecasts. The calibrator significantly improves probability forecasts relative to recent works. The ML model performance is improved with the addition of SSS in the Eastern North Pacific, western North Pacific, and the Caribbean subregion of the North Atlantic, and the overall model performance is better than previous studies. SSS decreases model skill for a model trained on the full Atlantic basin. In the Indian Ocean, SSS is also notably correlated with RI occurrence, but the TC samples are not sufficient to train ML models.

hurricane↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantal diffusion approach for multinucleon transfer processes in the 58,64 Ni + 208 Pb reactions: Toward the production of unknown neutron-rich nuclei

In recent years, substantial efforts have been made for the study of multinucleon transfer reactions at energies around the Coulomb barrier both experimentally and theoretically, aiming at the production of unknown neutron-rich heavy nuclei. It is crucial to provide reliable theoretical predictions based on microscopic theories with sufficient predictive power. Purpose: This article aims to clarify the applicability of the quantal diffusion approach based on the stochastic mean-field (SMF) theory for multinucleon transfer processes. Isotope production cross sections are evaluated for the reactions of 64 Ni + 208 Pb at E c.m. = 268 MeV and 58 Ni + 208 Pb at E c.m. = 270 MeV and are compared with available experimental data. Methods: Three-dimensional time-dependent Hartree-Fock (TDHF) calculations are carried out for a range of initial orbital angular momenta with Skyrme SLy4d functional. Quantal diffusion equations, derived based on the SMF theory, for variances and covariance of neutron and proton numbers of reaction products are solved, with microscopic drift and diffusion coefficients obtained from time evolution of occupied single-particle orbitals in TDHF. Secondary de-excitation processes, both particle evaporation and fission, are simulated by a statistical compound-nucleus de-excitation model, gemini++. Dynamics of a fast isospin equilibration process followed by a slow drift toward the mass symmetry are commonly observed, as expected. Various reaction outcomes are evaluated, including average mass and charge numbers of reaction products, total kinetic energy loss (TKEL), scattering angle, contact time, and production cross sections for primary and secondary products. By comparing with the experimental data, we find that SMF and TDHF quantitatively reproduce experimental data for few-nucleon-transfer channels around the average values. In contrast, for many-nucleon-transfer channels, we find that the SMF approach provides much better description of the experimentally measured isotopic distributions. The results underline the importance of beyond-mean-field effects, especially one-body (mean-field) fluctuations and correlations, in describing multinucleon transfer processes. Moreover, through a combined analysis of SMF with a statistical model, gemini++, we find a significant contribution of transfer-induced fission, which is consistent with the experimental observation. In some cases, the SMF approach overestimates the isotopic width, requiring further improvements of the theoretical description. Possible ways to improve the description are discussed. The SMF approach is designed to describe the quantum many-body problem according to an ensemble of mean-field trajectories, taking into account part of many-body correlations in the description. As it requires feasible computational costs comparable to the ordinary TDHF approach, together with further model improvements, it will be a promising tool in the search for optimal reaction conditions to produce yet-unknown neutron-rich heavy nuclei through the multinucleon transfer reaction.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Robust Medium-Voltage Distribution System State Estimation using Multi-Source Data

Due to the lack of sufficient online measurements for distribution system observability, pseudo-measurements from short-term load or distributed renewable energy resources (DERs) forecasting are used. However, the accuracy of them is low and thus significantly limits the performance of distribution system state estimation (DSSE). In this paper, a robust DSSE that integrates multi-source measurement data is proposed. Specifically, the historical low-voltage (LV) side smart meters are used to forecast load and DERs injections via the support vector machine (SVM) with optimally tuned parameters. By contrast, the online smart meters at LV side are utilized to derive equivalent power injections at the MV/LV transformers, yielding more accurate pseudo-measurements compared to the forecasted injections. Furthermore, to deal with bad data caused by communication loss, instrumental errors and cyber attacks, robust DSSE that relies on generalized maximum-likelihood (GM)-estimation criterion is developed. The projection statistics are developed to adjust the weights of each measurement, leading to better balance between pseudo- and real-time measurements. Numerical results conducted on modified IEEE 33-bus system with DG integration demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method.

distribution system state estimation↗