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At least 235 records · Page 13

Statistical physics and physiology: monofractal and multifractal approaches

Even under healthy, basal conditions, physiologic systems show erratic fluctuations resembling those found in dynamical systems driven away from a single equilibrium state. Do such "nonequilibrium" fluctuations simply reflect the fact that physiologic systems are being constantly perturbed by external and intrinsic noise? Or, do these fluctuations actually, contain useful, "hidden" information about the underlying nonequilibrium control mechanisms? We report some recent attempts to understand the dynamics of complex physiologic fluctuations by adapting and extending concepts and methods developed very recently in statistical physics. Specifically, we focus on interbeat interval variability as an important quantity to help elucidate possibly non-homeostatic physiologic variability because (i) the heart rate is under direct neuroautonomic control, (ii) interbeat interval variability is readily measured by noninvasive means, and (iii) analysis of these heart rate dynamics may provide important practical diagnostic and prognostic information not obtainable with current approaches. The analytic tools we discuss may be used on a wider range of physiologic signals. We first review recent progress using two analysis methods--detrended fluctuation analysis and wavelets--sufficient for quantifying monofractual structures. We then describe recent work that quantifies multifractal features of interbeat interval series, and the discovery that the multifractal structure of healthy subjects is different than that of diseased subjects.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

Monitoring the sea surface with a short pulse radar

A solution is presented for the scattering of short pulses from a stochastic, corrugated surface relative to the sea for the case of a narrow-beam transmitting antenna pointing near nadir. The spectrum of the received power and its time history are calculated and this solution is used to show that a measure of the variance of the surface ordinant can be obtained from the backscattered power. Included explicitly in the analysis is the finite nature of the source and the role of the small-scale wave structure (capillary wave range). It is shown that when sufficiently short pulses are transmitted, one can obtain a measure of the variance of the large scale surface ordinant from either the temporal spacing of the peaks in the returned power or from the envelope of the spectrum of the received power. Assuming an appropriate model for the statistics and spectrum of the surface ordinate, the variance can be used to compute the wind speed and the significant wave height of the surface.

Le Vine, D. M.↗

Timing the Geminga Pulsar with Gamma-Ray Observations

We present the COS-B/EGRET 1997 ephemeris for the rotation of the Geminga pulsar. This ephemeris is derived from high-energy gamma-ray observations that span 24 yr. The recently obtained accurate position and proper motion are assumed. A cubic ephemeris predicts the rotational phase of Geminga with errors smaller than 50 milliperiods for all existing high-energy gamma-ray observations that span a 24.2 yr timing baseline. The braking index obtained is 17 +/- 1. Further observation is required to ascertain whether this high value truly reflects the rotational energy loss mechanism, or whether it is a manifestation of timing noise. The ephemeris parameters are sufficiently constrained so that timing noise will be the limitation on forward extrapolation. If Geminga continues to rotate without a glitch, as it has for at least 23 yr, we expect this ephemeris to continue to describe the phase, with an error of less than 100 milliperiods, until 2008. Statistically significant timing residuals are detected in the EGRET data that depart from the cubic ephemeris at a level of 30 milliperiods. Although this could simply be an additional manifestation of timing noise, the EGRET timing residuals appear to have a sinusoidal modulation that is consistent with a planet of mass 1.7/sin i solar mass, orbiting Geminga at a radius of 3.3 AU.

Mattox, J. R.↗

The Orbiting Wide-Angle Light Collectors (OWL) Mission for Charged-Particle Astronomy

The space-based OWL mission is designed to perform high-statistics measurements of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays (UHECR) using the Earth's atmosphere as a vast particle calorimeter, furthering the field of charged-particle astronomy. OWL has been developed in formal NASA instrument and mission studies and is comprised of two large telescopes separated by approx.600 km in 1000 km, near-equatorial orbits to stereoscopically image the near-UV air fluorescence emitted by UHECR-induced particle cascades. The High Resolution Fly's Eye (HiRes) Collaboration, and subsequently the Pierre Auger Observatory, recently reported confirmation of the expected Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuzmin (GZK) suppression of the UHECR flux above a few times 10(exp 19) eV. This observation is consistent with the majority of UHECR originating in astrophysical objects and reduces the need to invoke exotic physical processes. Particles observed above the GZK threshold energy must have come from sources within about 100 Mpc from the Earth. The small particle deflection angles expected at UHECR energies, with standard assumptions of extragalactic magnetic fields, are on the order of 1 degree. Thus by observing particles above the GZK threshold with sufficient exposure, there is the potential of identifying and characterizing individual UHECR sources. Auger has reported significant anisotropy in the arrival directions of UHECR at energies above about 6 10(exp 19) eV observed in the South, and a correlation to AGN in the 12th VCV catalog, suggesting that the sources of UHECR are traced by the distribution of luminous matter in the Universe. However, with similar statistics and the same event selection criteria, HiRes observations in the North are consistent with isotropy. Extended observations by Auger-South, by Telescope Array in the North, and possibly by the proposed Auger-North, will further these investigations. However, much greater exposures will be required to fully identify individual sources and measure their cosmic ray spectra. A five-year OWL mission would deliver approximately 10(exp 6)sq km/sr/yr of exposure with full aperture reached at approx. 10(exp 19) eV. The baseline 3 m optical aperture OWL telescopes with 45 degree full field-of-view are easily accomodated on a single conventional launch vehicle. On orbit, the simultaneous viewing of the same volume of atmosphere allows for precise stereo event reconstruction, which is nearly independent of the inclination of the particle track and tolerant of atmospheric conditions. The availability of monocular operation provides increased reliability or can be employed to increase the instantaneous aperture. In stereo mode, OWL is also capable of fully reconstructing horizontal or upward-moving showers and so has unmatched sensitivity to neutrino-induced events. The details of the OWL mission will he presented and its science capabilities will be discussed.

Mitchell, John↗

The Infeasibility of Experimental Quantification of Life-Critical Software Reliability

This paper affirms that quantification of life-critical software reliability is infeasible using statistical methods whether applied to standard software or fault-tolerant software. The key assumption of software fault tolerance|separately programmed versions fail independently|is shown to be problematic. This assumption cannot be justified by experimentation in the ultra-reliability region and subjective arguments in its favor are not sufficiently strong to justify it as an axiom. Also, the implications of the recent multi-version software experiments support this affirmation.

Butler, Ricky W.↗

Investigation of several aspects of LANDSAT-4 data quality

The Thematic Mapper scene of Sacramento, CA acquired during the TDRSS test was received in TIPS format. Quadrants for both scenes were tested for band-to-band registration using reimplemented block correlation techniques. Summary statistics for band-to-band registrations of TM band combinations for Quadrant 4 of the NE Arkansas scene in TIPS format are tabulated as well as those for Quadrant 1 of the Sacramento scene. The system MTF analysis for the San Francisco scene is completed. The thermal band did not have sufficient contrast for the targets used and was not analyzed.

Wrigley, R. C.↗

Development of a satellite SAR image spectra and altimeter wave height data assimilation system for ERS-1

The applicability of ERS-1 wind and wave data for wave models was studied using the WAM third generation wave model and SEASAT altimeter, scatterometer and SAR data. A series of global wave hindcasts is made for the surface stress and surface wind fields by assimilation of scatterometer data for the full 96-day SEASAT and also for two wind field analyses for shorter periods by assimilation with the higher resolution ECMWF T63 model and by subjective analysis methods. It is found that wave models respond very sensitively to inconsistencies in wind field analyses and therefore provide a valuable data validation tool. Comparisons between SEASAT SAR image spectra and theoretical SAR spectra derived from the hindcast wave spectra by Monte Carlo simulations yield good overall agreement for 32 cases representing a wide variety of wave conditions. It is concluded that SAR wave imaging is sufficiently well understood to apply SAR image spectra with confidence for wave studies if supported by realistic wave models and theoretical computations of the strongly nonlinear mapping of the wave spectrum into the SAR image spectrum. A closed nonlinear integral expression for this spectral mapping relation is derived which avoids the inherent statistical errors of Monte Carlo computations and may prove to be more efficient numerically.

Hasselmann, Klaus↗

Validation of TRMM Satellite Rainfall Products Over Oklahoma for a Three Year Period (1998-2000)

This study evaluates the level 2 and level 3 rainfall products from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission gridded distribution of 118 high resolution tipping buckets from the Oklahoma Mesonet. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, a joint satellite mission between NASA and the National Space Development Agency (NASDA) of Japan, was designed to estimate global precipitation between 40 S and 40 N latitude. The TRMM satellite, consisting of two main precipitation sensors, a passive microwave (TMI) and precipitation radar (PR) sensors, was launched in 1997. Although the great advantage of TRMM has been its ability to sample precipitation globally over the tropical oceans in places where ground sensors do not exist, regional points over land still offer the best opportunity for validating these rain estimates. For this study, the gauge data was gridded at I x I degree resolution between 34 and 36 N and -95 and -100 W. The location of Oklahoma is somewhat unique, in that, it is located near the turning point for the satellite. This study investigates effects of temporal sampling on the satellite measurements and the resulting rainfall bias observed between space and ground based sensors. The first part of the study analyzes the monthly rainfall statistics of the 3AI2 (TMI), the 3A25 (PR) and the 31142 (combined sensors) with the rain gauges. It uses regression techniques and a computation of the probability density function (PDF) and cumulative probability density function (CDF) for each sensor to evaluate the effects of temporal sampling on the satellite products and the sufficiency of using two overpasses a day to estimate rainfall on a monthly scale. In further probing this issue, the study also looked at the direct coincidence of ground and satellite measurements by comparing instantaneous comparisons obtained from the level 2 orbital track data, e.g. 2A12, 2A25. Lastly, the effects of temporal sampling were further studied by sub-sampling the gauge data only at overpass times. This methodology provides a quantitative way of separately inferring the fraction of bias due to temporal sampling and the rainfall algorithm. In addition to showing the salient effects of temporal sampling, the study also revisits the historical problem of correlating point gauge estimates with area estimates, though, the problem is ameliorated by averaging and gridding the data to the area resolution scale of the satellite.

Fisher, Brad↗

Integrating Formal Methods and Testing 2002

Traditionally, qualitative program verification methodologies and program testing are studied in separate research communities. None of them alone is powerful and practical enough to provide sufficient confidence in ultra-high reliability assessment when used exclusively. Significant advances can be made by accounting not only tho formal verification and program testing. but also the impact of many other standard V&V techniques, in a unified software reliability assessment framework. The first year of this research resulted in the statistical framework that, given the assumptions on the success of the qualitative V&V and QA procedures, significantly reduces the amount of testing needed to confidently assess reliability at so-called high and ultra-high levels (10-4 or higher). The coming years shall address the methodologies to realistically estimate the impacts of various V&V techniques to system reliability and include the impact of operational risk to reliability assessment. Combine formal correctness verification, process and product metrics, and other standard qualitative software assurance methods with statistical testing with the aim of gaining higher confidence in software reliability assessment for high-assurance applications. B) Quantify the impact of these methods on software reliability. C) Demonstrate that accounting for the effectiveness of these methods reduces the number of tests needed to attain certain confidence level. D) Quantify and justify the reliability estimate for systems developed using various methods.

Cukic, Bojan↗

The GLAS physical inversion method for analysis of TIROS N data

The Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences approach to temperature sounding from satellite observations is fundamentally different from that of NESS in that heavy reliance is placed on the ability to model accurately the instrumental response to atmospheric and surface conditions, while no use is made of statistical relationships between satellite observations and atmospheric temperature profiles. The method involves starting with a guess set of atmospheric and surface conditions from which expected brightness temperatures for the satellite observations are computed. Then, iterative relaxation of atmospheric and surface conditions is performed according to the difference between observed and computed brightness temperatures until sufficient agreement is reached. In the absence of sufficient agreement, no retrieval is produced for that location.

Susskind, J.↗

Impact of Defect Distributions on the Reliability of Structural Materials

The purpose of this study is to develop a probabilistic model to estimate the fatigue life of gas turbine disks made of powder superalloy metals. Such metals are known to have high strength and ductility under extremely high temperatures and known to have high fatigue lives. However, despite the high quality controls instituted during metal processing, sufficiently high numbers of ceramic inclusions materialize within the metal matrix creating weak links that lead to reduced fatigue lives. To study the effect of such ceramic inclusions on the fatigue life of gas turbine disks, an experimental program has been initiated at the NASA Glenn Research. In this phase of the study, a statistical analysis of the test results is undertaken which served as the basis of the probabilistic simulation model. The study is a part of the Crack Resistant Disk Materials task within the Ultra Safe Propulsion Project.

Ghosn, Michel J.↗

Some statistical problems inherent in measuring precipitation

A formula permitting calculation of the mean-square error of the mean value of a random variable due to periodic sampling is derived and applied to estimating the sampling error for satellite observation of the mean rainfall during the GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE). The effects of both spatial resolution and frequency of observation on the sampling error are summarized in graphs. It is found that four observations per day are sufficient to determine the monthly mean rainfall over an area of 2.5 deg square (280km x 280km) to within a standard deviation of 5 percent of its mean value; two samples per day would yield an error with a standard deviation slightly less than 10 percent of the mean. A satellite instrument with less frequent sampling may produce significantly greater error in the estimate of monthly mean rainfall.

Flueck, J. A.↗

Detection of Digital Elevation Model Errors Using X-band Weather Radar

Flight in Instrument Meteorological Conditions requires pilots to manipulate flight controls while referring to a Primary Flight Display. The Primary Flight Display indicates aircraft attitude along with, in some cases, many other state variables such as altitude, speed, and guidance cues. Synthetic Vision Systems have been proposed that overlay the traditional information provided on Primary Flight Displays onto a scene depicting the location of terrain and other geo-spatial features.Terrain models used by these displays must have sufficient quality to avoid providing misleading information. This paper describes how X-band radar measurements can be used as part of a monitor, and/or maintenance system, to quantify the integrity of terrain models that are used by systems such as Synthetic Vision. Terrain shadowing effects, as seen by the radar, are compared in a statistical manner against estimated shadow feature elements extracted from the stored terrain model from the perspective of the airborne observer. A test statistic is defined that enables detection of errors as small as the range resolution of the radar. Experimental results obtained from two aircraft platforms hosting certified commercial-off-the-shelf X-band radars test the premise and illustrate its potential.

Young, Steven D.↗

Multidimensional analysis of data obtained in experiments with X-ray emulsion chambers and extensive air showers

Nonparametric statistical methods are used to carry out the quantitative comparison of the model and the experimental data. The same methods enable one to select the events initiated by the heavy nuclei and to calculate the portion of the corresponding events. For this purpose it is necessary to have the data on artificial events describing the experiment sufficiently well established. At present, the model with the small scaling violation in the fragmentation region is the closest to the experiments. Therefore, the treatment of gamma families obtained in the Pamir' experiment is being carried out at present with the application of these models.

Chilingaryan, A. A.↗

The depths of the mare basalt source region

Chemical data for the parental magmas of the nine known VLT Array I pyroclastic glasses show statistically significant trends due to olivine (approximately Fo83) control during their formation by partial melting. The compositional scatter is largely due to compositional variations in the source regions on the + or - 1 percent level. This compositional scatter is small when one considers that the scale of the source region is up to 1000 km, but is sufficient to make positive identification of the residual phase(s) in the source regions difficult. Nevertheless, when the effects of the scatter are properly modeled, it is relatively clear that olivine is the residual phase in the source region. Hence these data and additional constraints indicate that the source regions are at shallow depths in the moon.

Binder, A. B.↗

Theoretical analysis of isotope effects on ozone formation in oxygen photochemistry

In situ measurements of stratospheric ozone and laboratory studies of ozone production in electric discharge through oxygen have shown previously that ozone containing heavy isotopes of oxygen (O-17, O-18) may be formed preferentially. In order to assess the relevance of thee latter experiment to the stratospheric measurements, detailed understanding of the effect of isotopic substitution on the O3 formation reaction O + O2 + M yields O3 + M and on the O atom exchange reaction O + O2 + O yields O2 + O is necessary. In this work, an estimate of the effect of isotopic substitution on the recombination rate is made by us of approximate dynamical theories and statistical mechanics. The results indicate the possibility of isotope effects on the O + O2 recombination rate of the order of several percent at stratospheric temperatures. In general, recombination reactions involving heavy (mass 49, 50) O3 formation are found to be slower than the reaction leading to normal (mass 48) O3 formation. The calculated isotope effects are sufficiently small that the uncertainties in the model input and the approximations in the dynamical theories will probably make the quantitative nature of these results subject to considerable uncertainty. This isotope effect should not be observable in the atmosphere given the precision of the current measurements but may be crucial in the understanding of the laboratory experiments, where observed enhancements are only of the order of several percent. Possible reasons for this discrepancy between the observed enhancement and predicted depletion are presented.

Kaye, J. A.↗

Visualizing turbulent mixing of gases and particles

A physical model and interactive computer graphics techniques have been developed for the visualization of the basic physical process of stochastic dispersion and mixing from steady-state CFD calculations. The mixing of massless particles and inertial particles is visualized by transforming the vector field from a traditionally Eulerian reference frame into a Lagrangian reference frame. Groups of particles are traced through the vector field for the mean path as well as their statistical dispersion about the mean position by using added scalar information about the root mean square value of the vector field and its Lagrangian time scale. In this way, clouds of particles in a turbulent environment are traced, not just mean paths. In combustion simulations of many industrial processes, good mixing is required to achieve a sufficient degree of combustion efficiency. The ability to visualize this multiphase mixing can not only help identify poor mixing but also explain the mechanism for poor mixing. The information gained from the visualization can be used to improve the overall combustion efficiency in utility boilers or propulsion devices. We have used this technique to visualize steady-state simulations of the combustion performance in several furnace designs.

Ma, Kwan-Liu↗

DSN Array Simulator

The DSN Array Simulator (wherein 'DSN' signifies NASA's Deep Space Network) is an updated version of software previously denoted the DSN Receive Array Technology Assessment Simulation. This software (see figure) is used for computational modeling of a proposed DSN facility comprising user-defined arrays of antennas and transmitting and receiving equipment for microwave communication with spacecraft on interplanetary missions. The simulation includes variations in spacecraft tracked and communication demand changes for up to several decades of future operation. Such modeling is performed to estimate facility performance, evaluate requirements that govern facility design, and evaluate proposed improvements in hardware and/or software. The updated version of this software affords enhanced capability for characterizing facility performance against user-defined mission sets. The software includes a Monte Carlo simulation component that enables rapid generation of key mission-set metrics (e.g., numbers of links, data rates, and date volumes), and statistical distributions thereof as functions of time. The updated version also offers expanded capability for mixed-asset network modeling--for example, for running scenarios that involve user-definable mixtures of antennas having different diameters (in contradistinction to a fixed number of antennas having the same fixed diameter). The improved version also affords greater simulation fidelity, sufficient for validation by comparison with actual DSN operations and analytically predictable performance metrics.

Tikidjian, Raffi↗