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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Arctic cyclones have become more intense and longer-lived over the past seven decades

Intense cyclones driving extreme Arctic weather and climate events have been more frequently observed during recent years, causing dramatic environmental and socioeconomic impacts. However, inconsistencies have emerged about long-term changes in Arctic cyclone activity. Here we analyze multiple reanalysis datasets covering a multidecadal period with improvements to the cyclone tracking algorithm and the integrated cyclone activity metric. The results indicate an intensification of Arctic cyclone activity over the last seven decades. There has been a long-term shift of the maximum cyclone counts from weaker to stronger cyclones and a pronounced lengthening of the duration of strong cyclones. Spatial analysis shows increased strong cyclone frequency over the Arctic, driven by enhanced lower troposphere baroclinicity, amplified winter jet stream waves over the subpolar North Atlantic, and a strengthened summer tropospheric vortex over the central Arctic. The stratospheric vortex has also intensified the tropospheric waves and vortex with distinct dynamics between winter and summer. Recently enhanced baroclinicity over large areas of the Arctic and midlatitudes suggests more complicated atmospheric dynamics than what is hypothesized with Arctic-amplification-induced decrease in meridional temperature gradients.

Atmospheric dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sunlight can turn smoldering pine wood smoke into a glass

Wildfires inject biomass burning organic aerosols (BBOA) into the atmosphere. During their lifetimes of weeks to months, they are exposed to ultraviolet (UV) irradiation. Viscosity and phase behaviour are essential properties for understanding their chemical and climate impacts. Here, we quantify changes in viscosity and phase behavior after UV exposure. After an atmospheric equivalent of 8.7 days of boundary layer UV exposure, BBOA develop a highly viscous (glassy) outer phase with a viscosity at least five orders of magnitude higher than unaged BBOA, which persists up to at least 58% relative humidity. High-resolution mass spectrometry indicates that UV-aging increases oxidation and molecular weight. Using our viscosity results, we predict that UV-aged BBOA are frequently glassy above ~2.5 km and can have viscosities up to eight orders of magnitude higher than unaged particles in some atmospheric regions, which may influence lifetimes of pollutants and brown carbon, and impact stratospheric ozone chemistry.

Golay, Zoe↗
DOE OSTI2020

A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security

A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 °C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, and 17 (±2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (±4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30°N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using <1% of the worldwide nuclear arsenal could have adverse consequences for global food security unmatched in modern history.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Anoxic photogeochemical oxidation of manganese carbonate yields manganese oxide

The oxidation states of manganese minerals in the geological record have been interpreted as proxies for the evolution of molecular oxygen in the Archean eon. In this paper we report that an Archean manganese mineral, rhodochrosite (MnCO 3 ), can be photochemically oxidized by light under anoxic, abiotic conditions. Rhodochrosite has a calculated bandgap of about 5.4 eV, corresponding to light energy centering around 230 nm. Light at that wavelength would have been present on Earth’s surface in the Archean, prior to the formation of stratospheric ozone. We show experimentally that the photooxidation of rhodochrosite in suspension with light centered at 230 nm produced H 2 gas and manganite (γ-MnOOH) with an apparent quantum yield of 1.37 × 10 –3 moles hydrogen per moles incident photons. Our results suggest that manganese oxides could have formed abiotically on the surface in shallow waters and on continents during the Archean eon in the absence of molecular oxygen.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The large scale polarization explorer (LSPE) for CMB measurements: performance forecast

The measurement of the polarization of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) radiation is one of the current frontiers in cosmology. In particular, the detection of the divergence-free component of the polarization field, the B-mode component, reveals the presence of gravitational waves in the early Universe. The detection of such component is at the moment the most promising technique to probe the inflationary theory describing the very early evolution of the Universe. The measurement of the polarization of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) radiation is one of the current frontiers in cosmology. In particular, the detection of the primordial divergence-free component of the polarization field, the B-mode, could reveal the presence of gravitational waves in the early Universe. The detection of such a component is at the moment the most promising technique to probe the inflationary theory describing the very early evolution of the Universe. We present the updated performance forecast of the Large Scale Polarization Explorer (LSPE), a program dedicated to the measurement of the CMB polarization. LSPE is composed of two instruments: LSPE-Strip, a radiometer-based telescope on the ground in Tenerife-Teide observatory, and LSPE-SWIPE (Short-Wavelength Instrument for the Polarization Explorer) a bolometer-based instrument designed to fly on a winter arctic stratospheric long-duration balloon. The program is among the few dedicated to observation of the Northern Hemisphere, while most of the international effort is focused into ground-based observation in the Southern Hemisphere. Measurements are currently scheduled in Winter 2022/23 for LSPE-SWIPE, with a flight duration up to 15 days, and in Summer 2022 with two years observations for LSPE-Strip. In this work, we describe the main features of the two instruments, identifying the most critical aspects of the design, in terms of impact on the performance forecast. We estimate the expected sensitivity of each instrument and propagate their combined observing power to the sensitivity to cosmological parameters, including the effect of scanning strategy, component separation, residual foregrounds and partial sky coverage. We also set requirements on the control of the most critical systematic effects and describe techniques to mitigate their impact. LSPE will reach a sensitivity in tensor-to-scalar ratio of σr < 0.01, set an upper limit r < 0.015 at 95% confidence level, and improve constraints on other cosmological parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

How do intermittency and simultaneous processes obfuscate the Arctic influence on midlatitude winter extreme weather events?

Abstract Pronounced changes in the Arctic environment add a new potential driver of anomalous weather patterns in midlatitudes that affect billions of people. Recent studies of these Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages, however, state inconsistent conclusions. A source of uncertainty arises from the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Thermodynamic forcing by a rapidly warming Arctic contributes to weather events through changing surface heat fluxes and large-scale temperature and pressure gradients. But internal shifts in atmospheric dynamics—the variability of the location, strength, and character of the jet stream, blocking, and stratospheric polar vortex (SPV)—obscure the direct causes and effects. It is important to understand these associated processes to differentiate Arctic-forced variability from natural variability. For example in early winter, reduced Barents/Kara Seas sea-ice coverage may reinforce existing atmospheric teleconnections between the North Atlantic/Arctic and central Asia, and affect downstream weather in East Asia. Reduced sea ice in the Chukchi Sea can amplify atmospheric ridging of high pressure near Alaska, influencing downstream weather across North America. In late winter southward displacement of the SPV, coupled to the troposphere, leads to weather extremes in Eurasia and North America. Combined tropical and sea ice conditions can modulate the variability of the SPV. Observational evidence for Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages continues to accumulate, along with understanding of connections with pre-existing climate states. Relative to natural atmospheric variability, sea-ice loss alone has played a secondary role in Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages; the full influence of Arctic amplification remains uncertain.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Acoustic waves from the 2023 April 20 SpaceX Starship rocket explosion travelling in the elevated ‘AtmoSOFAR’ channel

SUMMARY The ability to detect low-frequency sounds from distant energetic events depends on the temperature and wind structure of the atmosphere. Thus, from time to time surface-based acoustic detectors may not be able to capture sounds arriving from certain directions. However, the temperature minimum at the tropopause may create an acoustic duct called the ‘AtmoSOFAR’ channel that could transmit acoustic waves laterally—but perhaps not to the ground. If true, then elevated sensors such as those borne aloft by balloons would record the signatures even in regions where ground-based sensors cannot. This has been difficult to prove because high altitude acoustic sources are rare and balloon deployments are sporadic. This work describes the detection and characterization of powerful acoustic waves generated during the launch and terminal explosion of the SpaceX Starship rocket on 2023 April 20 using a pair of microbarometers on a stratospheric balloon. The signals travelled through the AtmoSOFAR channel, carrying information about the size and nature of their source. This channel also appears to leak some acoustic energy to the ground, in agreement with previous studies. The acoustic yield of the Starship terminal explosion was on the order of $10^3$ tons trinitrotoluene equivalent, which agrees with the estimated fuel load of the vehicle to about a factor of 2, but is two orders of magnitude larger than optical estimates. These results support an earlier study that claimed lateral transmission of sound from a smaller rocket through the AtmoSOFAR channel. The transmission of source information through the AtmoSOFAR channel motivates its use for monitoring other natural and anthropogenic events using balloon-borne sensors. This may become increasingly important as more and more private and government entities conduct spacecraft launches and reentries. It may also provide a means of monitoring clear air turbulence and other sound-generating atmospheric phenomena at a distance.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Tunable Unidirectional Source for GUSTO's Local Oscillator at 4.74 THz

The Galactic/Extra Ultra long Duration Balloon Spectroscopic-Stratospheric Terahertz Observatory (GUSTO), is a NASA balloon-borne project and is scheduled for launch in late 2022. The balloon will carry a spectroscopic telescope that will detect three brightest emission lines from interstellar medium. GUSTO measurements will shed light on the life-cycle of the gases in the Milky Way and Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). In this study, we will discuss the details of a quantum cascade laser used in the local oscillator for detecting the oxygen line at 4.74 THz.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Ecological Impacts of Dry and Hot Shocks in the Land of Midnight Sun

Contreras-Serrano et al. (2025) and Heinzelmann et al. (2025) investigated how droughts and heatwaves affect plant physiology and community functions in the Arctic. At first glance, such studies may seem counterintuitive. As the Earth's refrigerator, the Arctic is probably the least likely place that one might associate with droughts and heatwaves. However, dry and hot shocks do occur there, and their frequency and intensity can be surprisingly high. On June 20, 2020, the thermometer at the weather station of the Siberian town of Verkhoyansk (67.55° N and 133.40° E) witnessed a record temperature of 38°C in the Article Circle (Ciavarella et al. 2021). This record Arctic temperature was the consequence of the congruence of the powers of the stratospheric polar vortex, the tropospheric jet stream, and the Arctic Oscillation, all of which reached record strength in the early months of 2020, priming the conditions for an unprecedented ecological disturbance (Overland and Wang 2021). This extreme event, now known as the 2020 Siberian heatwave, caused widespread wildfires, insect outbreaks, and permafrost degradation, releasing almost 60 million tons of carbon into the atmosphere (ESOTC 2020). Extreme weather events like this are not just limited to Siberia (Dobricic et al. 2020). The Arctic has warmed up much faster than the rest of the world, that is, “Arctic Amplification” (Moon et al. 2024). The total land area affected by severe, extreme, and very extreme heatwaves has doubled, tripled, and quadrupled, respectively, across the terrestrial Arctic since the 1950s, and the extent is projected to continue increasing throughout the 21st century (Rantanen et al. 2024).

Arctic↗
DOE OSTI2020

The influence of irregular terrain on infrasonic propagation in the troposphere

The relations describing the reflection of three-dimensional acoustic ray paths impinging on a non-flat surface are derived and used to approximate the propagation of infrasonic signals over irregular terrain in the geometric limit. The influence of non-flat ground is strongest for those paths that reflect off the surface multiple times, such as those in the tropospheric waveguide; however, notable differences in source and receiver elevations for stratospheric and thermospheric paths can produce notable differences in travel times and arrival amplitudes. The interaction of ray paths with topographical features is investigated using a simple hill to demonstrate the impact of topography on propagation within an azimuthal plane, as well as cases in which the ground surface interaction deflects the path out of the azimuthal plane. Finally, broadband waveform predictions are compared with observations for an event in the western U.S., and a statistical analysis of scattering losses due to interaction with topography in the limit of geometric acoustics is used to improve the agreement between predicted and observed infrasonic signals.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Infrasound direction of arrival determination using a balloon-borne aeroseismometer

Free-floating balloons are an emerging platform for infrasound recording, but they cannot host arrays sufficiently wide for multi-sensor acoustic direction finding techniques. Because infrasound waves are longitudinal, the balloon motion in response to acoustic loading can be used to determine the signal azimuth. This technique, called “aeroseismometry,” permits sparse balloon-borne networks to geolocate acoustic sources. This is demonstrated by using an aeroseismometer on a stratospheric balloon to measure the direction of arrival of acoustic waves from successive ground chemical explosions. A geolocation algorithm adapted from hydroacoustics is then used to calculate the location of the explosions.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

New Frontiers in Geoengineering Research

In late summer 2019, the ninth annual workshop of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP; http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/GeoMIP) convened at Beijing Normal University (Fig. 1). This meeting was held in conjunction with a summer school in which 89 participants from five continents learned about climate modeling of solar geoengineering, also known as climate engineering or climate intervention. Solar geoengineering refers to “radiation management” methods, which involve deliberate manipulations of the radiation budget through potential technologies such as stratospheric sulfate aerosols, marine cloud brightening, and cirrus thinning, but not CO2 removal. The students at the summer school were mainly physical science majors, with many from China, but also included some social science people. The summer school was focused on impact modeling (e.g., on agriculture and the cryosphere) and consideration of extremes, rather than just looking at climate modeloutput. There were also lectures on governance and economics. This event signifies the first major international geoengineering meeting held in Asia.

Kravitz, Benjamin S.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Representation of Modes of Variability in Six U.S. Climate Models

We compare the performance of several modes of variability across six U.S. climate modeling groups, with a focus on identifying robust improvements in recent models [including those participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)] compared to previous versions. In particular, we examine the representation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the tropical stratosphere, and the dominant modes of extratropical variability, including the southern annular mode (SAM), the northern annular mode (NAM) [and the closely related North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)], and the Pacific–North American pattern (PNA). Where feasible, we explore the processes driving these improvements through the use of “intermediary” experiments that utilize model versions between CMIP3/5 and CMIP6 as well as targeted sensitivity experiments in which individual modeling parameters are altered. We find clear and systematic improvements in the MJO and QBO and in the teleconnection patterns associated with the PDO and ENSO. Some gains arise from better process representation, while others (e.g., the QBO) from higher resolution that allows for a greater range of interactions. Our results demonstrate that the incremental development processes in multiple climate model groups lead to more realistic simulations over time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sea Level Rise in the CESM Large Ensemble: The Role of Individual Climate Forcings and Consequences for the Coming Decades

The emergence of a spatial pattern in the externally forced response (FR) of dynamic sea level (DSL) during the altimeter era has recently been demonstrated using climate models but our understanding of its initial emergence, drivers, and implications for the future is poor. Here the anthropogenic forcings of the DSL pattern are explored using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) and Single-Forcing Large Ensemble, a newly available set of simulations where values of individual forcing agents remain fixed at 1920 levels, allowing for an estimation of their effects. Statistically significant contributions to the DSL FR are identified for greenhouse gases (GHGs) and industrial aerosols (AERs), with particularly strong contributions resulting from AERs in the mid-twentieth century and GHGs in the late twentieth and twenty-first century. Secondary, but important, contributions are identified for biomass burning aerosols in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean in the mid-twentieth century, and for stratospheric ozone in the Southern Ocean during the late twentieth century. Key to understanding regional DSL patterns are ocean heat content and salinity anomalies, which are driven by surface heat and freshwater fluxes, ocean dynamics, and the spatial structure of seawater thermal expansivity. Finally, potential implications for the interpretation of DSL during the satellite era and the longer records from tide gauges are suggested as a topic for future research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

In-situ measurements of chemically and radiatively important atmospheric gases from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gas Experiment (AGAGE) and affiliated stations.

In the ALE/GAGE/AGAGE global network program, continuous high frequency gas chromatographic measurements of four biogenic/anthropogenic gases (methane, CH4; nitrous oxide, N2O; hydrogen, H2; and carbon monoxide, CO) and several anthropogenic gases that contribute to stratospheric ozone destruction and/or to the greenhouse effect have been carried out at five globally distributed sites for several years. The program, which began in 1978, is divided into three parts associated with three changes in instrumentation: the Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment (ALE), which used Hewlett Packard HP5840 gas chromatographs; the Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (GAGE), which used HP5880 gas chromatographs; and the present Advanced GAGE (AGAGE). AGAGE uses two types of instruments: a gas chromatograph with multiple detectors (GC-MD), and a gas chromatograph with mass spectrometric analysis (GC-MS). Beginning in January 2004, an improved cryogenic preconcentration system (Medusa) replaced the absorption-desorption module in the GC-MS systems at Mace Head and Cape Grim; this provided improved capability to measure a broader range of volatile perfluorocarbons with high global warming potentials. The Medusa GC-MS systems were subsequently used at other AGAGE stations (Trinidad Head, Barbados, American Samoa, Zeppelin, Jungfraujoch, and Goan) after the initial setup at Mace Head and Cape Grim. More information may be found at the AGAGE home page: https://agage.mit.edu/instruments.Compared to the previous version (https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/view/doi:10.3334/CDIAC/ATG.DB1001), the latest update (Agage_gcmd_gcms_data_2021_04_07_tar.gz) includes 6 months of new data through the end of March 2020. Two new compounds, HCFC-132b, and HCFC-133a, are also included in this version. For a complete list of released compounds and used standard scales, please see “AGAGE_scale_2021_v1.pdf” file. Additional information can also be found on the AGAGE website (https://agage.mit.edu).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) Data

In the ALE/GAGE/AGAGE global network program, continuous high frequency gas chromatographic measurements of four biogenic/anthropogenic gases (methane, CH4; nitrous oxide, N2O; hydrogen, H2; and carbon monoxide, CO) and several anthropogenic gases that contribute to stratospheric ozone destruction and/or to the greenhouse effect have been carried out at five globally distributed sites for several years. The program, which began in 1978, is divided into three parts associated with three changes in instrumentation: the Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment (ALE), which used Hewlett Packard HP5840 gas chromatographs; the Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (GAGE), which used HP5880 gas chromatographs; and the present Advanced GAGE (AGAGE). AGAGE uses two types of instruments: a gas chromatograph with multiple detectors (GC-MD), and a gas chromatograph with mass spectrometric analysis (GC-MS). Beginning in January 2004, an improved cryogenic preconcentration system (Medusa) replaced the absorption-desorption module in the GC-MS systems at Mace Head and Cape Grim; this provided improved capability to measure a broader range of volatile perfluorocarbons with high global warming potentials. The Medusa GC-MS systems were subsequently used at other AGAGE stations (Trinidad Head, Barbados, American Samoa, Zeppelin, Jungfraujoch, and Goan) after the initial setup at Mace Head and Cape Grim. More information may be found at the AGAGE home page: https://agage.mit.edu/instruments.Compared to the previous version (https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi: doi:10.15485/1781803), the latest update (Agage_gcmd_gcms.data.2022_01_03.tar.gz) includes 6 months of new data through the end of September 2020. For a complete list of released compounds and used standard scales, please see “AGAGE_scale_2021_v1.pdf” file. Additional information can also be found on the AGAGE website (https://agage.mit.edu).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗