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NASA NTRS1999

Statistical Perspectives on Stratospheric Transport

Long-lived tropospheric source gases, such as nitrous oxide, enter the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause, are transported throughout the stratosphere by the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and are photochemically destroyed in the upper stratosphere. These chemical constituents, or "tracers" can be used to track mixing and transport by the stratospheric winds. Much of our understanding about the stratospheric circulation is based on large scale gradients and other spatial features in tracer fields constructed from satellite measurements. The point of view presented in this paper is different, but complementary, in that transport is described in terms of tracer probability distribution functions (PDFs). The PDF is computed from the measurements, and is proportional to the area occupied by tracer values in a given range. The flavor of this paper is tutorial, and the ideas are illustrated with several examples of transport-related phenomena, annotated with remarks that summarize the main point or suggest new directions. One example shows how the multimodal shape of the PDF gives information about the different branches of the circulation. Another example shows how the statistics of fluctuations from the most probable tracer value give insight into mixing between different regions of the atmosphere. Also included is an analysis of the time-dependence of the PDF during the onset and decline of the winter circulation, and a study of how "bursts" in the circulation are reflected in transient periods of rapid evolution of the PDF. The dependence of the statistics on location and time are also shown to be important for practical problems related to statistical robustness and satellite sampling. The examples illustrate how physically-based statistical analysis can shed some light on aspects of stratospheric transport that may not be obvious or quantifiable with other types of analyses. An important motivation for the work presented here is the need for synthesis of the large and growing database of observations of the atmosphere and the vast quantities of output generated by atmospheric models.

Sparling, L. C.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Interannual Variability in the Equatorial Stratosphere: Comparison of 2D Model Simulations with Satellite Constituent Data

Satellite observations from UARS and TOMS have provided unique data sets for studying seasonal and interannual stratospheric constituent variability during the 1990's. The corresponding meteorological variability is also well represented by the partly satellite-based UKMO assimilation winds and temperatures. In this study, we use the UKMO meteorological fields to derive zonal mean transport components (residual circulation, horizontal eddy diffusion) for each year, 1992-1998. These fields are then used in our GSFC two-dimensional chemistry and transport model to simulate the year to year changes in ozone and long lived tracers in the equatorial stratosphere due to interannual dynamical variability. The resulting model simulation of ozone and CH4 compares reasonably well with UARS data in reproducing a dominant QBO signal in the lower stratosphere, and a dominant semiannual signature in the upper stratosphere which appears to be modulated by the lower stratospheric QBO. The model also compares well with TOMS data in simulating the phase of the QBO in total ozone, although the model QBO amplitude is somewhat underestimated relative to TOMS. These comparisons illustrate that the general zonal mean transport characteristics in the equatorial stratosphere can be reasonably well simulated using an empirically-based residual circulation.

Fleming, Eric L.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Processes Controlling Water Vapor in the Winter Arctic Stratospheric Middleworld

Abstract: Water vapor in the winter arctic stratospheric middleworld (that part of the stratosphere with potential temperatures lower than the tropical tropopause) is important for two reasons: (1) the arctic middleworld is a source of air for the upper troposphere because of the generally downward motion, and thus its water vapor content helps determine upper tropospheric water, a critical part of the earth's radiation budget; and (2) under appropriate conditions, relative humidities will be large even to the point of stratospheric cirrus cloud formation, leading to the production of active chlorine species that could destroy ozone. On a number of occasions during SOLVE, clouds were observed in the stratospheric middleworld by the DC-8 aircraft. The relationship between ozone and CO from aircraft measurements taken during the early, middle and late part of the winter of 1999-2000 show that recent mixing with tropospheric air extends up to ozone values of about 350-450 ppbv. Above that level, the relationship suggests stratospheric air with minimal tropospheric influence. The transition is quite abrupt, particularly in early spring. Trajectory analyses are consistent with these relationships, with a significant drop-off in the percentage of trajectories with tropospheric PV values in their 10-day history as in-situ ozone increases above 400 ppbv. The water distribution is affected by these mixing characteristics, and by cloud formation. Significant cloud formation along trajectories occurs up to ozone values of about 400 ppbv during the early spring, with small, but nonzero probabilities extending to 550 ppbv. Cloud formation in the stratospheric middleworld is minimal during early and midwinter. Also important is the fact that, during early spring 30% of the trajectories near the tropopause (ozone values less than 200 ppbv) have minimum saturation mixing ratios less than 5 ppmv. Such parcels can mix out into the troposphere and could lead to very dry conditions in the upper troposphere at high latitudes during spring,

Pfister, Leonhard↗
NASA NTRS2001

Mean Ages of Stratospheric Air Derived From in Situ Observations of CO2, CH4, and N2O

Accurate mean ages for stratospheric air have been derived from a spatially and temporally comprehensive set of in situ observations of CO2, CH4, and N2O obtained from 1992 to 1998 from the NASA ER-2 aircraft and balloon flights. Errors associated with the tropospheric CO2 seasonal cycle and interannual variations in the CO2 growth rate are less than 0.5 year throughout the stratosphere and less than 0.3 year for air older than 2 years (N2O less than 275 ppbv), indicating that the age spectra are broad enough to attenuate these influences over the time period covered by these observations. The distribution of mean age with latitude and altitude provides detailed, quantitative information about the general circulation of the stratosphere. At 20 km, sharp meridional gradients in the mean age are observed across the subtropics. Between 20 and 30 km, the average difference in mean age between the tropics and midlatitudes is approximately 2 years, with slightly smaller differences at higher and lower altitudes. The mean age in the midlatitude middle stratosphere (approx. 25-32 km) is relatively constant with respect to altitude at 5 plus or minus 0.5 years. Comparison with earlier balloon observations of CO2 dating back to the 1970s indicates that the mean age of air in this region has remained within 11 year of its current value over the last 25 years. A climatology of mean age is derived from the observed compact relationship between mean age and N2O. These characteristics of the distribution of mean age in the stratosphere will serve as critically needed diagnostics for models of stratospheric transport.

Andrews, A. E.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Role of Stratospheric Air in a Severe Weather Event: Analysis of Potential Vorticity and Total Ozone

The role of dry stratospheric air descending to low and middle tropospheric levels in a severe weather outbreak in the midwestern United States is examined using ACCEPT Eta model output, Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) analyses, and Earth probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EP/TOMS) total ozone data. While stratospheric air was not found to play a direct role in the convection, backward trajectories show stratospheric air descended to 800 hPa just west of the convection. Damaging surface winds not associated with thunderstorms also occurred in the region of greatest stratospheric descent. Small-scale features in the high-resolution total ozone data compare favorably with geopotential heights and potential vorticity fields, supporting the notion that stratospheric air descended to near the surface. A detailed vertical structure in the potential vorticity appears to be captured by small-scale total ozone variations. The capability of the total ozone to identify mesoscale features assists model verification. The total ozone data suggest biases in the RUC analysis and Eta forecast of this event. The total ozone is also useful in determining whether potential vorticity is of stratospheric origin or is diabatically generated in the troposphere.

Goering, Melissa A.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Soot Aerosol from Aircraft: Is there Enough to Cause Middle-Latitude Lower Stratospheric Ozone

Soot aerosol from aircraft has been implicated to cause long-term ozone depletion at mid-latitudes in the lower stratosphere at a rate of approx. equals 5%,per decade. During the 1996 SUCCESS field campaign, we sampling aerosols in the exhaust wake of a Boeing 757 aircraft and determined emission indices for sulfuric acid (EIH2SO4=4.8E-2 and 5.7E- 1. g/kgFUEL for 75 and 675 ppm fuel-sulfur, respectively) and soot (EIsoot=7.5E-4 g/kgFUEL). The corresponding fuel-sulfur to H2SO4 conversion efficiency was 25 % and 30%,respctively. Applying the H2SO4 emission index to the 1990 fuel by the world's commercial fleets of 1.3E11 kg, a conversion efficiency of 30% would have led to an annual contribution to the atmospheric sulfur budget by aircraft of 2.E7 kg H2SO4, if the fuels averaged 500 ppmm.The soot emission index given above yielded a 1990 injection of soot aerosol by aircraft of 1.E5 kg. Thus, soot amounts to only one half of one percent of the aerosol generated by aircraft. The fractal nature of soot may increase its actual surface area by about a factor of 10. The findings, however, of (1) stratospheric soot loadings commensurate with aircraft fuel consumption, based on the emission index given above and the assumption of stratospheric residence times of the order of one year; and (2) a trend in stratospheric soot loading of approx.6% per year since 1981, similar to the annual increase of aircraft operations since that time, implicate aircraft as stratospheric polluters. A trend similar to soot of H2SO4 aerosol loading could not be deciphered, neither from in situ measurements nor SAGE II extinction, against the "noise" due to volcanic eruptions, The current single scatter albedo of the stratospheric aerosol is omega = 0.993+/-0.004.

Pueschel, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Light Absorption of Stratospheric Aerosols: Long-Term Trend and Contribution by Aircraft

Measurements of aerosol light-absorption coefficients are useful for studies of radiative transfer and heating rates. Ogren appears to have published the first light- absorption coefficients in the stratosphere in 1981, followed by Clarke in 1983 and Pueschel in 1992. Because most stratospheric soot appears to be due to aircraft operations, application of an aircraft soot aerosol emission index to projected fuel consumption suggests a threefold increase of soot loading and light absorption by 2025. Together, those four data sets indicate an increase in mid-visible light extinction at a rate of 6 % per year. This trend is similar to the increase per year of sulfuric acid aerosol and of commercial fleet size. The proportionality between stepped-up aircraft operations above the tropopause and increases in stratospheric soot and sulfuric acid aerosol implicate aircraft as a source of stratospheric pollution. Because the strongly light-absorbing soot and the predominantly light-scattering sulfuric acid aerosol increase at similar rates, however, the mid-visible stratospheric aerosol single scatter albedo is expected to remain constant and not approach a critical value of 0.98 at which stratospheric cooling could change to warming.

Pueschel , R. F.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Stratospheric Sulfuric Acid and Black Carbon Aerosol Measured During POLARIS and its Role in Ozone Chemistry

Stratospheric aerosol can affect the environment in three ways. Sulfuric acid aerosol have been shown to act as sites for the reduction of reactive nitrogen and chlorine and as condensation sites to form Polar Stratospheric Clouds, under very cold conditions, which facilitate ozone depletion. Recently, modeling studies have suggested a link between BCA (Black Carbon Aerosol) and ozone chemistry. These studies suggest that HNO3, NO2, and O3 may be reduced heterogeneously on BCA particles. The ozone reaction converts ozone to oxygen molecules, while HNO3 and NO2 react to form NOx. Finally, a buildup of BCA could reduce the single-scatter albedo of aerosol below a value of 0.98, a critical value that has been postulated to change the effect of stratospheric aerosol from cooling to warming. Correlations between measured BCA amounts and aircraft usage have been reported. Attempts to link BCA to ozone chemistry and other stratospheric processes have been hindered by questions concerning the amount of BCA that exists in the stratosphere, the magnitude of reaction probabilities, and the scarcity of BCA measurements. The Ames Wire Impactors (AWI) participated in POLARIS as part of the complement of experiments on the NASA ER-2. One of our main objectives was to determine the amount of aerosol surface area, particularly BCA, available for reaction with stratospheric constituents and assess if possible, the importance of these reactions. The AWI collects aerosol and BCA particles on thin Palladium wires that are exposed to the ambient air in a controlled manner. The samples are returned to the laboratory for subsequent analysis. The product of the AWI analysis is the size, surface area, and volume distributions, morphology and elemental composition of aerosol and BCA. This paper presents results from our experiments during POLARIS and puts these measurements in the context of POLARIS and other missions in which we have participated. It describes modifications to the AWI data analysis procedures in which the collection of BCA is modeled as a fractal aggregate. The new analysis results in an increase in BCA surface area of approximately 24 and an increase in mass of 7-10 from the previous method. For the current study, BCA surface area is used in computer models that attempt to predict measured NOx/NOy ratios and O3 depletion rates. Inclusion of the HNO3 reaction with BCA in one model tends to improve the agreement of calculated to measured NOx/NOy ratio. However, it was found that these trends are viable only if the reactions are catalytic.

Strawa, Anthony W.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Large-scale Stratospheric Transport Processes

The PI has undertaken a theoretical analysis of the existence and nature of compact tracer-tracer relationships of the kind observed in the stratosphere, augmented with three-dimensional model simulations of stratospheric tracers (the latter being an extension of modeling work the group did during the SOLVE experiment). This work achieves a rigorous theoretical basis for the existence and shape of these relationships, as well as a quantitative theory of their width and evolution, in terms of the joint tracer-tracer PDF distribution. A paper on this work is almost complete and will soon be submitted to Rev. Geophys. We have analyzed lower stratospheric water in simulations with an isentropic-coordinate version of the MATCH transport model which we recently helped to develop. The three-dimensional structure of lower stratospheric water, in particular, attracted our attention: dry air is, below about 400K potential temperature, localized in the regions of the west Pacific and equatorial South America. We have been analyzing air trajectories to determine how air passes through the tropopause cold trap. This work is now being completed, and a paper will be submitted to Geophys. Res. Lett. before the end of summer. We are continuing to perform experiments with the 'MATCH' CTM, in both sigma- and entropy-coordinate forms. We earlier found (in collaboration with Dr Natalie Mahowald, and as part of an NSF-funded project) that switching to isentropic coordinates made a substantial improvement to the simulation of the age of stratospheric air. We are now running experiments with near-tropopause sources in both versions of the model, to see if and to what extent the simulation of stratosphere-troposphere transport is dependent on the model coordinate. Personnel Research is supervised by the PI, Prof. Alan Plumb. Mr William Heres conducts the tracer modeling work and performs other modeling tasks. Two graduate students, Ms Irene Lee and Mr Michael Ring, have been participating in the research.

Plumb, R. Alan↗
NASA NTRS2004

Assimilation of Stratospheric Meteorological and Constituent Observations: A Review

This talk reviews the assimilation of meteorological and constituent observations of the stratosphere. The first efforts to assimilate observations into stratospheric models were during the early 1980s, and a number of research studies followed during the next decade. Since the launch of the Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS) in 1991, model-assimilated data sets of the stratospheric meteorological state have been routinely available. These assimilated data sets were critical in bringing together observations from the different instruments on UARS as well as linking UARS observations to measurements from other platforms. Using trajectory-mapping techniques, meteorological assimilation analyses are, now, widely used in the analysis of constituent observations and have increased the level of quantitative study of stratospheric chemistry and transport. During the 1990s the use of winds and temperatures from assimilated data sets became standard for offline chemistry and transport modeling. variability in middle latitudes. The transport experiments, however, reveal a set of shortcomings that become obvious as systematic errors are integrated over time. Generally, the tropics are not well represented, mixing between the tropics and middle latitudes is overestimated, and the residual circulation is not accurate. These shortcomings reveal underlying fundamental challenges related to bias and noise. Current studies using model simulation and data assimilation in controlled experimentation are highlighting the issues that must be addressed if assimilated data sets are to be convincingly used to study interannual variability and decadal change. observations. The primary focus has been on stratospheric ozone, but there are efforts that investigate a suite of reactive chemical constituents. Recent progress in ozone assimilation shows the potential of assimilation to contribute to the validation of ozone observations and, ultimately, the retrieval of ozone profiles from space-based radiance measurements. Assimilated data sets provide accurate analyses of synoptic and planetary Scale At the same time, stratospheric assimilation is evolving to include constituent

Rood, Richard B.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Changes in the Temperature of Saturn's Stratosphere from 2002 to 2004 and Direct Evidence of a Mesopause

The state of a planetary stratosphere is intricately linked to the radiation it receives from its host star. The stellar flux impinging on the the planetary stratosphere affects the temperature and chemistry occurring there. The revolution of the planet about its orbit coupled to the planets axial tilt can cause variations in the amount of flux captured by the planet at a given latitude over the period of a year even if the flux output of the star is constant. This variation of stellar flux at a given latitude during the orbit of a planet is what causes seasons. Saturn, with its axial tilt of 27 degrees, experiences seasonal forcing much like the Earth, albeit with far less solar flux and a year equal to 30 Earth years. In an attempt to measure the effect seasonal forcing has on the temperature structure of Saturn's stratosphere, we have started a long term observing program. By observing Saturn with a high-resolution mid-infrared spectrograph in the v(sub 4) band of methane, we can infer the stratospheric temperature between the pressure levels of 10 and 0.01 mbar. We present latitudinally resolved observations of Saturn's southern hemisphere from 2002 and 2004. We have analyzed the data using a line-by-line radiative transfer model and inferred stratospheric temperatures and winds. We compare the temperatures from the two observing runs and the predictions of a stratospheric seasonal climate model. The zonal winds in the southern hemisphere, between the 10 and 0.01 mbar pressure levels, will be shown and discussed.

Greathouse, Thomas K.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Tropospheric and stratospheric ozone from assimilation of Aura data

Ozone is an atmospheric trace gas with multiple impacts on the environment. Global ozone fields are needed for air quality predictions, estimation of the ultraviolet radiation reaching the surface, climate-radiation studies, and may also have an impact on longer-term weather predictions. We estimate global ozone fields in the stratosphere and troposphere by combining the data from EOS Aura satellite with an ozone model using data assimilation. Ozone exhibits a large temporal variability in the lower stratosphere. Our previous work showed that assimilation of satellite data from limb-sounding geometry helps constrain ozone profiles in that region. We assimilated ozone data from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) into the ozone system at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). Ozone is transported within a general circulation model (GCM) which includes parameterizations for stratospheric photochemistry, tropospheric chemistry, and a simple scheme for heterogeneous ozone loss. The focus of this study is on the representation of ozone in the lower stratosphere and tropospheric ozone columns. We plan to extend studies of tropospheric ozone distribution through assimilation of ozone data from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES). Comparisons with ozone sondes and occultation data show that assimilation of Aura data reproduces ozone gradients and variability in the lower stratosphere well. We proceed by separating the contributions to temporal changes in the ozone field into those that are due to the model and those that are due to the assimilation of Aura data. The impacts of Aura data are illustrated and their role in the representation of ozone variability in the lower stratosphere and troposphere is shown.

Stajner, I.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Relative Contribution of Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Change to Temperature Trends in the Stratosphere: A Chemistry/Climate Model Study

Long-term changes in greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide, are expected to lead to a warming of the troposphere and a cooling of the stratosphere. We examine the cooling of the stratosphere and compare the contributions greenhouse gases and ozone change for the decades between 1980 and 2000. We use 150 years of simulation done with our coupled chemistry/climate model (GEOS 4 GCM with GSFC CTM chemistry) to calculate temperatures and constituents fiom,1950 through 2100. The contributions of greenhouse gases and ozone to temperature change are separated by a time-series analysis using a linear trend term throughout the period to represent the effects of greenhouse gases and an equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) term to represent the effects of ozone change. The temperature changes over the 150 years of the simulation are dominated by the changes in greenhouse gases. Over the relatively short period (approx. 20 years) of ozone decline between 1980 and 2000 changes in ozone are competitive with changes in greenhouse gases. The changes in temperature induced by the ozone change are comparable to, but smaller than, those of greenhouse gases in the upper stratosphere (1-3 hPa) at mid latitudes. The ozone term dominates the temperature change near both poles with a negative temperature change below about 3-5 hPa and a positive change above. At mid latitudes in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere (above about 1 hPa) and in the middle stratosphere (3 to 70 ma), the greenhouse has term dominates. From about 70 hPa down to the tropopause at mid latitudes, cooling due to ozone changes is the largest influence on temperature. Over the 150 years of the simulation, the change in greenhouse gases is the most important contributor to temperature change. Ozone caused a perturbation that is expected to reverse over the coming decades. We show a model simulation of the expected temperature change over the next two decades (2006-2026). The simulation shows a crossover between lower atmospheric heating and upper atmospheric cooling that is located at about 90 hPa in the tropics and 30-40 hPa in the polar regions. This results from the combination of continuing increases in greehouse gases and recovery from ozone depletion.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Influence of Tropospheric SO2 Emissions on Particle Formation and the Stratospheric Humidity

Stratospheric water vapor plays an important role in the chemistry and radiation budget of the stratosphere. Throughout the last decades stratospheric water vapor levels have increased and several processes have been suggested to contribute to this trend. Here we present a mechanism that would link increasing anthropogenic SO2 emissions in southern and eastern Asia with an increase in stratospheric water. Trajectory studies and model simulations suggest that the SO2 increase results in the formation of more sulfuric acid aerosol particles in the upper tropical troposphere. As a consequence, more ice crystals of smaller size are formed in the tropical tropopause, which are lifted into the stratosphere more readily. Our model calculations suggest that such a mechanism could increase the amount of water that entered the stratosphere in the condensed phase by up to 0.5 ppmv from 1950-2000.

Notholt, J.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Electrification in Hurricanes over the Tropical Americas: Implication for Stratospheric Water Vapor

This study explores the relation between lightning activity and water vapor in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) over hurricane systems in the Tropical Americas. The hypothesis herein is that hurricanes that exhibit enhanced lightning activity are associated with stronger updrafts that can transport more moisture directly into the TTL (and subsequently into the tropical stratosphere) or even directly into the tropical stratosphere over this region. The TTL over the Tropical Americas, which includes the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, is of particular interest, because summertime cold point tropopause is the lowest in height and thus the warmest in temperature over the tropics. The latter condition implies higher saturation values and thus potential for more water vapor to enter the stratosphere. Climate forecast is very sensitive to stratospheric water vapor abundance, because of the key role that water vapor plays in regulating the chemical and radiative properties of the stratosphere. Given the potential for increases in hurricane intensity and frequency under predicted warmer conditions, it becomes essential to understand the effect of hurricanes on stratospheric water vapor. In this study, we use a combination of ground and space-borne observations as well as trajectory calculations. The observations include: cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data from the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), geostationary infrared observations from the National Climatic Data Center Hurricane Satellite (HURSAT) data set, cloud properties from Aqua-MODIS, and water vapor from Aura-MLS. We analyze hurricanes from the 2005 season when Aura-MLS data are available, namely: Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. Our analysis consists of examining CG lightning, cloud-top properties, and TTL water vapor (i.e., 100 and 147 mb) over the hurricane while it remains over water in the Tropical Americas region. We investigate daily as well as diurnal statistical properties. The hurricanes analyzed in this study showed that lightning activity is negatively correlated with minimum infrared brightness temperature and positively correlated with 100-mb water vapor. An examination of the maxima in water vapor observed over the hurricane not only shows larger magnitudes, but also larger differences between water vapor averages and water vapor maxima over the hurricane as lightning activity increases. Trajectory calculations are performed using the Flextra model in order to investigate the fate of the moister air masses found in the TTL.

Pittman, Jasna V.↗
NASA NTRS2005

AO/NAO Response to Climate Change: Respective Influences of Stratospheric and Tropospheric Climate Changes - 1

We utilize the GISS Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model and 8 different climate change experiments, many of them focused on stratospheric climate forcings, to assess the relative influence of tropospheric and stratospheric climate change on the extratropical circulation indices (Arctic Oscillation, AO; North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO). The experiments are run in two different ways: with variable sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to allow for a full tropospheric climate response, and with specified SSTs to minimize the tropospheric change. The results show that tropospheric warming (cooling) experiments and stratospheric cooling (warming) experiments produce more positive (negative) AO/NAO indices. For the typical magnitudes of tropospheric and stratospheric climate changes, the tropospheric response dominates; results are strongest when the tropospheric and stratospheric influences are producing similar phase changes. Both regions produce their effect primarily by altering wave propagation and angular momentum transports, but planetary wave energy changes accompanying tropospheric climate change are also important. Stratospheric forcing has a larger impact on the NAO than on the AO, and the angular momentum transport changes associated with it peak in the upper troposphere, affecting all wavenumbers. Tropospheric climate changes influence both the A0 and NAO with effects that extend throughout the troposphere. For both forcings there is often vertical consistency in the sign of the momentum transport changes, obscuring the difference between direct and indirect mechanisms for influencing the surface circulation.

Rind, D.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Quantifying the Impact of the North American Monsoon and Deep Midlatitude Convection on the Subtropical Lowermost Stratosphere using in Situ Measurements

The chemical composition of the lowermost stratosphere exhibits both spatial and temporal variability depending upon the relative strength of (1) isentropic transport from the tropical tropopause layer (TTL), (2) diabatic descent from the midlatitude and northern midlatitude stratosphere followed by equatorward isentropic transport, and (3) diabatic ascent from the troposphere through convection. In situ measurements made in the lowermost stratosphere over Florida illustrate the additional impact of equatorward flow around the monsoon anticyclone. This flow carries, along with older stratospheric air, the distinct signature of deep midlatitude convection. We use simultaneous in situ measurements of water vapor (H2O), ozone (O3), total odd nitrogen (NOy), carbon dioxide (CO2), and carbon monoxide (CO) in the framework of a simple box model to quantify the composition of the air sampled in the lowermost stratosphere during the mission on the basis of tracer mixing ratios ascribed to the source regions for these transport pathways. The results show that in the summer, convection has a significant impact on the composition of air in the lowermost stratosphere, being the dominant source of water vapor up to the 380 K isentrope. The implications of these results extend from the potential for heterogeneous ozone loss resulting from the increased frequency and lifetime of cirrus near the local tropopause, to air with increased water vapor that as part of the equatorward flow associated with the North American monsoon can become part of the general circulation.

Weinstock, E. M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Contributions to Future Stratospheric Climate Change: An Idealized Chemistry-Climate Model Sensitivity Study

Within the framework of an idealized model sensitivity study, three of the main contributors to future stratospheric climate change are evaluated: increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, ozone recovery, and changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). These three contributors are explored in combination and separately, to test the interactions between ozone and climate; the linearity of their contributions to stratospheric climate change is also assessed. In a simplified chemistry-climate model, stratospheric global mean temperature is most sensitive to CO2 doubling, followed by ozone depletion, then by increased SSTs. At polar latitudes, the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratosphere is more sensitive to changes in CO2, SSTs and O3 than is the Southern Hemisphere (SH); the opposing responses to ozone depletion under low or high background CO2 concentrations, as seen with present-day SSTs, are much weaker and are not statistically significant under enhanced SSTs. Consistent with previous studies, the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation is found to increase in an idealized future climate; SSTs contribute most to this increase in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) region, while CO2 and ozone changes contribute most in the stratosphere and mesosphere.

Hurwitz, M. M.↗