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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Framework for Bulk Electric Grid Impacts from HEMP E1 and E3 Effects (Tasks 3.1 Final Report)

This report presents a framework to evaluate the impact of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) event on a bulk electric power grid. This report limits itself to modeling the impact of EMP E1 and E3 components. The co-simulation of E1 and E3 is presented in detail, and the focus of the paper is on the framework rather than actual results. This approach is highly conservative as E1 and E3 are not maximized with the same event characteristics and may only slightly overlap. The actual results shown in this report are based on a synthetic grid with synthetic data and a limited exemplary EMP model. The framework presented can be leveraged and used to analyze the impact of other threat scenarios, both manmade and natural disasters. This report d escribes a Monte-Carlo based methodology to probabilistically quantify the transient response of the power grid to a HEMP event. The approach uses multiple fundamental steps to characterize the system response to HEMP events, focused on the E1 and E3 components of the event. 1) Obtain component failure data related to HEMP events testing of components and creating component failure models. Use the component failure model to create component failure conditional probability density function (PDF) that is a function of the HEMP induced terminal voltage. 2) Model HEMP scenarios and calculate the E1 coupled voltage profiles seen by all system components. Model the same HEMP scenarios and calculate the transformer reactive power consumption profiles due to E3. 3) Sample each component failure PDF to determine which grid components will fail, due to the E1 voltage spike, for each scenario. 4) Perform dynamic simulations that incorporate the predicted component failures from E1 and reactive power consumption at each transformer affected by E3. These simulations allow for secondary transients to affect the relays/protection remaining in service which can lead to cascading outages. 5) Identify the locations and amount of load lost for each scenario through grid dynamic simulation. This can be an indication of the immediate grid impacts from a HEMP event. In addition, perform more detailed analysis to determine critical nodes and system trends. 6) To help realize the longer-term impacts, a security constrained alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) is run to maximize critical load served. This report describes a modeling framework to assess the systemic grid impacts due to a HEMP event. This stochastic simulation framework generates a large amount of data for each Monte Carlo replication, including HEMP location and characteristics, relay and component failures, E3 GIC profiles, cascading dynamics including voltage and frequency over time, and final system state. This data can then be analyzed to identify trends, e.g., unique system behavior modes or critical components whose failure is more likely to cause serious systemic effects. The proposed analysis process is demonstrated on a representative system. In order to draw realistic conclusions of the impact of a HEMP event on the grid, a significant amount of work remains with respect to modeling the impact on various grid components.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

AI-Assisted Conceptual Development of a Pre-Geometric Cosmological Model - An Exercise in AI-Assisted Conceptual Framework Generation, Paper III: Cosmological Structure and Predictions

This paper develops the cosmological consequences of the replication-driven cosmogenesis framework introduced in Paper I and the emergent geometric structure established in Paper II. After the replication epoch freezes out, the coherent sector occupies a finite spectral band and contains a population of excited states. The relaxation of these excited coherent configurations does not produce coherent radiation; instead, all released energy flows into the incoherent substrate, where the randomizer acts as a rapid phase-scrambling mechanism. This process generates an effectively thermal radiation bath, providing a natural reheating mechanism that requires neither inflaton oscillations nor scalar-field potentials, and can be contrasted with standard scenarios of nonperturbative reheating dynamics. Subsequent symmetry-breaking transitions in the coherent vacuum inject additional radiation, yielding a multi-stage thermal history with well-defined energy transfers. We derive the effective equations of state for each component—the cosmological vacuum, the coherent vacuum, and the radiation bath—and show how their interplay produces an FRW-like expansion. The discrete sequence of coherent-state relaxations imprints a distinctive multi-peaked stochastic gravitational-wave background, whose spectral structure reflects the underlying hierarchy of coherent frequencies. Potential observational signatures in the LISA and mid-band frequency ranges are highlighted, providing concrete avenues to test this replication-based cosmological framework in the context of standard cosmological gravitational-wave backgrounds and LISA-oriented forecasts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Searching for cosmological stochastic backgrounds by notching out resolvable compact binary foregrounds with next-generation gravitational-wave detectors

Stochastic gravitational-wave backgrounds can be of either cosmological or astrophysical origin. The detection of an astrophysical stochastic gravitational-wave background with ground-based interferometers is expected in the near future. Perhaps even more excitingly, the detection of stochastic backgrounds of cosmological origin by future ground-based interferometers could reveal invaluable information about the early Universe. From this perspective, the astrophysical background is a {\it foreground} that can prevent the extraction of this information from the data. In this paper, we revisit a time-frequency domain notching procedure previously proposed to remove the astrophysical foreground in the context of next-generation ground-based detectors, but we consider the more realistic scenario where we remove individually detectable signals by taking into account the uncertainty in the estimation of their parameters. We find that time-frequency domain masks can still efficiently remove the astrophysical foreground and suppress it to about $5\%$ of its original level. Further removal of the foreground formed by unresolvable events (in particular, unresolvable binary neutron stars), which is about $10$ times larger than the residual foreground from realistic notching, would require detector sensitivity improvements. Therefore, the main limitation in the search for a cosmological background is the unresolvable foreground itself, and not the residual of the notching procedure.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gravitational waves from fully general relativistic oscillon preheating

As long-lived quasisolitons from the fragmentation of a scalar condensate, oscillons may dominate the preheating era after inflation. During this period, stochastic gravitational waves can also be generated. Here we quantify the gravitational-wave production in this period with simulations accounting for full general relativity to capture all possible nonperturbative effects. We compute the gravitational-wave spectra across a range of choices of the oscillon preheating models and compare our results to a conventional perturbative approach on a Friedmann-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) background. We clarify the gauge ambiguities in computing induced gravitational waves from scenarios where dense nonperturbative objects such as oscillons are being formed. In particular, we find that the synchronous gauge tends to contain large artificial enhancements in the gravitational-wave spectrum due to gauge modes if gravity plays an important role in the formation of the oscillons, while other gauge choices, such as the radiation gauge or a suitably chosen “1+log” gauge, can efficiently reduce the contributions of gauge modes. The full general-relativistic simulations indicate that gravitational-wave spectra obtained from the perturbative approach on the FLRW background are fairly accurate, except when oscillon formation induces strong gravitational effects, for which case there can be an order unity enhancement.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterization of beam ion loss in high poloidal beta regime on EAST

A critical issue for achieving the integrated operation of steady-state long-pulse high-confinement (H-mode) plasmas on experimental advanced superconducting tokamak (EAST) is to improve beam ion population confinement during neutral beam injection (NBI). To study the characterization of beam ion loss and improve beam ion confinement, the steady-state long pulse scenario discharges were conducted on EAST (β p $\geqslant$ 2.0, β N $\geqslant$ 1.7, q 95 $\geqslant$ 6.7 and H 98y2 $\geqslant$ 1.1) with NBI heating. Based on neutron yield, the beam voltage and line-averaged electron density were adjusted from 50 kV to 60 kV and 4.4 × 10 19 m –3 to 5.0 × 10 19 m –3 , respectively. The results show that the dominant mechanisms of beam ion loss are shine-through loss, prompt loss, and stochastic ripple loss. The shine-through loss fraction is determined by initial velocity, flight time and entire beam path. The change in prompt loss fraction is caused by the change in the deposition of beam ions. The change in stochastic ripple loss fraction is caused by the change in the initial fraction of trapped-confined ions. Detailed physics shows that the prompt loss fraction during counter-Ip injections (~45%) is far larger than during co-Ip injections (~5%) due to the finite orbit width. The lost ions are mainly deposited on the lower divertor or below the midplane since the direction of magnetic drift is vertical down. The orbit types of prompt loss during counter-Ip injections are mainly trapped-lost and ctr-passing lost. To minimize the prompt loss fraction during counter-Ip injections, a reversed Ip configuration (rev-Ip) discharge #94758 was conducted. The result suggests that the beam ion wall load fraction during counter-Ip tangential injection (~3%) is far lower than that in normal Ip configuration (nor-Ip) discharge #94820. It is also found that the confinement of beam ion population in the counter-Ip injection #94758 was greatly improved when compared to #94820. Finally, this study can provide unique support for the improvement of beam ion population confinement and for the performance evaluation of the NBI system on EAST and future tokamaks.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Runaway electron transport in stochastic toroidal magnetic fields

Here, we study the transport and confinement properties of runaway electrons (RE) in the presence of magnetic fields with perturbations producing different levels of stochasticity. We use Kinetic Orbit Runaway Electron Code (KORC) [Carbajal et al. , Phys. Plasmas 24, 042512 (2017) and del-Castillo-Negrete et al. , Phys. Plasmas 25, 056104 (2018)] for simulating the full-orbit (FO) and guiding-center (GC) dynamics of RE in perturbed magnetic fields that exhibit magnetic islands. We extend previous works on this problem [Wingen et al. , Nucl. Fusion 46, 941 (2006); Izzo et al. , Nucl. Fusion 51, 063032 (2011); Papp et al. , Nucl. Fusion 51, 043004 (2011); V. Izzo and P. Parks, Phys. Plasmas 24, 060705 (2017); and Sommariva et al. , Nucl. Fusion 58, 016043 (2018)] by studying in detail full-orbit effects on the RE dynamics. We quantify FO effects on RE transport by performing one-to-one comparisons between FO and GC simulations. It is found that, for the magnetic field configurations considered, GC simulations predict twice the RE losses of FO simulations for 1 MeV and four times the RE losses of FO simulations for 25 MeV. Similarly, we show how different GC and FO dynamics of RE moving around magnetic islands can be, especially in the scenario where the RE Larmor radius is on the order of the size of the magnetic island. We also study the role of rotation of the magnetic islands on RE confinement, and we find that low-frequency toroidal rotation has no observable effect on RE transport in the cases considered. These results shed some light into the potential of avoidance or mitigation mechanisms based on magnetic perturbations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep-learning-enhanced assessment of wellbore barrier effectiveness in geologic storage systems with intermediate aquifers

For geologic systems where carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is injected underground, existing wells represent potential pathways for fluid migration. Here, this study introduces a novel deep learning model to quantify the likelihood and potential magnitude of fluid migration through wellbores at sites with intermediate aquifers or thief zones between the injection units and underground drinking water sources. Synthetic datasets, generated using reservoir simulations, captured a wide range of subsurface conditions, well attributes, operational parameters, and fluid migration scenarios. Among the regression models developed to predict brine and CO 2 leakage rates and CO 2 saturations along leaky wellbores, convolutional neural network (CNN) outperformed both Light Gradient Boosting Machine and deep neural network. Additionally, a CNN-based classification model was created to predict whether brine and CO 2 would leak along a wellbore, further improving performance over regression alone. The best models were integrated into the National Risk Assessment Partnership Open-source Integrated Assessment Model for rapid, stochastic assessment of storage system containment and leakage risks. A case study demonstrated the model’s ability to simulate fluid migration through existing wells with multiple intermediate aquifers. This computationally efficient wellbore model offers value in support of site performance evaluation and risk-informed decision making by stakeholders.

CO2 leakage↗
DOE OSTI2020

Validation of Hygrothermal Simulations with Wall Performance Experiments in an Environmental Chamber

Oak Ridge National Laboratory is developing a web tool, built on a rule-based expert system, that aids stakeholders in designing energy-efficient moisture-durable walls. Currently, the tool’s expert system database is mostly populated with expert opinion, but work is being done to incorporate durability assessment based on stochastic hygrothermal modeling. Chamber experiments have been conducted to validate the hygrothermal models. The measured temperature and humidity have been compared with those predicted by the hygrothermal model. Experiments and comparison to one-dimensional hygrothermal modeling results were completed with two walls, a Structural Insulated Panel (SIP) based wall and a Concrete Masonry Unit (CMU) based wall. The two walls were succumbed to typical Chicago weather in ORNL’s Heat, Air and Moisture chamber. The walls were sequentially exposed to different scenarios, including diffusion, wetting, air leakage and solar radiation. For the most part, the hygrothermal simulations can be successfully used to predict the performance of these wall systems for the moisture transport phenomenon. Errors between measured and simulated values decreased as measurements got closer to the interior side of the wall. The root mean square error was larger for relative humidity (up to 17.5%-RH for CMU) than for temperature (up to 4.5°C for CMU wall). The errors were larger for the CMU wall than the wood frame wall. The phenomenon, including liquid water, caused large discrepancies between measurement and simulation results, and simulated results showed slower drying of materials than measured results. The one-dimensional nature of the simulation model made simulating air leaks difficult but not impossible.

Salonvaara, Mikael↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spectroscopy of particle couplings with gravitational waves

We discuss the possibility to measure particle couplings with stochastic gravitational wave backgrounds (SGWBs). Under certain circumstances a sequence of peaks of different amplitude and frequency — a stairway — emerges in a SGWB spectrum, with each peak probing a different coupling. The detection of such signature opens the possibility to reconstruct couplings (spectroscopy) of particle species involved in high energy phenomena generating SGWBs. Stairwaylike signatures may arise in causally produced backgrounds in the early Universe, e.g., from preheating or first order phase transitions. As a proof of principle we study a preheating scenario with an inflaton $\phi$ coupled to multiple daughter fields {$χ_j$} with different coupling strengths. As a clear stairway signature is imprinted in the SGWB spectrum, we reconstruct the relevant couplings with various detectors.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Security Constrained Distributed Transaction Model for Multiple Prosumers

Massive access of renewable energy has prompted demand-side distributed resources to participate in regulation and improve flexibility of power systems. With large-scale access of massive, decentralized, and diverse distributed resources, demand-side market members have transformed from traditional “consumers” to “prosumers”. To explore the distributed transaction model of prosumers, in this paper, a multi-prosumer distributed transaction model is proposed, and the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) theory is applied to quantify potential risks caused by the stochastic characteristics inherited from renewable energy. First, a prosumer model under constraints of the distribution network including photovoltaic units, fuel cells, energy storage system, central air conditioning and flexible loads is established, and a multi-prosumer distributed transaction strategy is proposed to achieve power sharing among multiple prosumers. Second, a prosumer transaction model based on CVaR is constructed to measure risks inherited from the uncertainty of PV output within the prosumer and ensure safety of system operation in extreme PV output scenarios. Then, the alternating direction multiplier method (ADMM) is utilized to solve the constructed model efficiently. Finally, distributed transaction costs of prosumers are distributed fairly based on the generalized Nash equilibrium to maximize social benefits. Simulation results show the multi-prosumer distributed transaction mechanism established under the proposed generalized Nash equilibrium method can encourage power sharing among prosumers, increasing their own income and social benefits. Also, the CVaR can assist decision making of prosumers in weighting the risks and benefits, improving system resilience through energy management of prosumers.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen Leak Modeling for Development of Smart Distributed Monitoring Under Unintended Releases

Hydrogen is a versatile and clean energy carrier that can be produced from various renewable sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower. Hydrogen has the potential to play a crucial role in decarbonizing industrial processes that are currently reliant on fossil fuels and provide long-duration and/or seasonal energy storage to enable electricity decarbonization. Hydrogen can also be used as a fuel for fuel cell vehicles, providing a zero-emission alternative to traditional internal combustion engines. DOE launched the Hydrogen Energy Earthshot (Hydrogen Shot) in June 2021 to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1 per 1 kilogram in 1 decade ("1 1 1"). While promising, Hydrogen is highly-flammable, and in the presence of oxygen, it can form explosive mixtures. . Therefore, understanding leak scenarios is essential to evaluate and mitigate the safety risks associated with potential hydrogen leaks. An increased understanding of leak behavior, and having tools to model leaks, can help assess how hydrogen would disperse in different environments, influencing emergency response plans and safety measures, and identify potential issues with materials and design systems that can withstand the challenges posed by hydrogen. Recently, researchers have attempted to study hydrogen leaks for development of risk management strategies. However, the focus has been on closed or semi-closed spaces like storage rooms, vehicles, garages, and fueling stations - all promising locations for future hydrogen infrastructure. In this presentation, the modeling environment extends the span of research further by modeling hydrogen leak in an outdoor, open space. We will present the key challenges with modeling hydrogen leaks in an uncontrollable environment, how they were handled, and how modeling results informed sensor selection and placement. A Hydrogen research facility at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was used as a case study to model hydrogen leaks. In the future, Hydrogen wide area detection methodologies will be developed and tested at this site to monitor for unintended and operational hydrogen releases. The data generated from modeling will be used to develop a predictive model to detect hydrogen leak location based on concentration measured by sensors in this open space. Furthermore, the facility was also chosen because controlled hydrogen releases can be performed. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based modeling approach was taken to model hydrogen leak. The full-scale hydrogen facility was modeled with a large ambient domain. The electrolyzer at the facility can produce a controlled release rate of 27 kg-H2/hr. Site-specific atmospheric and weather condition data such as wind direction, wind speed at various altitudes, and temperature were used as inputs to the model. To capture the variability of weather conditions, a subset of the weather conditions experienced during daytime hours without precipitation over the course of three months was generated; using established data clustering techniques, a total of 100 condition sets were chosen. The results show statistical distributions and ranges of hydrogen concentrations at locations throughout the domain. These distributions are compared to experimental data from a constant mass flow, controlled hydrogen release at the facility. The stochastic wind conditions of the release make direct validation difficult, therefore, statistical comparison approaches were used. Wind conditions are found to significantly impact the release behavior, including direction and concentration. Sensor selection and placement is proposed for the facility and is now based on release behavior predicted for the facility given its weather patterns; this is much more informed than without the modeling results. The methodology and analysis procedure can be translated to other facilities using modified geometries and site-specific weather conditions. Hydrogen holds great promise as a renewable energy fuel, but ensuring safety in its production, storage, and use is paramount. Studying potential leak scenarios in an open space will help develop sensors to detect hydrogen on a large spectrum of concentration and eventually build a smart distributed monitoring system.

CFD↗
NASA NTRS1992

Response of Thematic Mapper bands to plant water stress

Changes in leaf reflectance as water content decreases have been hypothesized to occur in the 1.55-1.75 and 2.08-2.35 micron wavelength regions. To evaluate this hypothesis, studies were conducted on ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum Lam.) and oats (Avena sativa L.), which were grown in a controlled, outdoor situation. Both fully-watered control beds and water-stressed beds were periodically examined with a spectroradiometer calibrated against a reflectance reference of polytetrafluoroethylene. The observed changes correspond to those predicted by stochastic leaf models employed by other investigators (leaf reflection increases in the 1.55-1.75 micron region as leaf water content decreases). Although the percentage changes in TM bands 1-3 are nearly as great as those found in TM bands 5 and 7, the absolute values of reflectance change are much lower. It is believed that these patterns are probably characteristic of a broad range of vegetation types. In terms of phenomena detection, these patterns should be considered in any practical remote sensing sensor scenario.

Cibula, W. G.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Zonal shear layer collapse and the power scaling of the density limit: old L-H wine in new bottles

Edge shear layer collapse causes edge cooling and aggravates radiative effects. This paper details on the microscopic dynamics of the emergence of power (Q) scaling of density limit (DL) from the shear layer collapse transport bifurcation scenario. The analysis is based on a novel 4-field model, which evolves turbulence energy, zonal flow energy, temperature gradient and density, including the neoclassical screening of zonal flow response. Bifurcation analysis yields power scaling of critical density for shear layer collapse as $n_{crit}\sim Q^{1/3}$. The favorable Q scaling of the DL emerges from the fact that the shear layer strength increases with Q, thus preventing shear layer collapse. This in turn reduces particle transport and improves particle confinement. RMP induced ambient stochastic fields degrade the shear layer by inducing decoherence in the Reynolds stress. As a result the particle transport increases and particle confinement degrades. This leads to the emergence of unfavorable stochastic field intensity ($b_{st}^{2}$) scaling of the critical density as $n_{crit}\sim(1+b_{st}^{2})^{-5/3}$. All fields, including zonal flow shear, exhibit hysteresis when the power (Q) is ramped cyclically across the bifurcation point. The hysteresis is due to dynamical delay in bifurcation on account of critical slowing down. Furthermore, the dynamical hysteresis here is fundamentally different from the hysteresis associated with the existence of bi-stable states.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Extreme-scale EV charging infrastructure planning for last-mile delivery using high-performance parallel computing

Here, this paper addresses stochastic charger location and allocation problems under queue congestion for last-mile delivery using electric vehicles (EVs). The objective is to decide where to open charging stations and how many chargers of each type to install, subject to budgetary and waiting-time constraints. We formulate the problem as a mixed-integer non-linear program, where each station-charger pair is modeled as a multiserver queue with stochastic arrivals and service times to capture the notion of waiting in fleet operations. The model is extremely large, with billions of variables and constraints for a typical metropolitan area; even loading the model in solver memory is difficult, let alone solving it. To address this challenge, we develop a Lagrangian-based dual decomposition framework that decomposes the problem by station and leverages parallelization on high-performance computing systems, where the subproblems are solved by using a cutting plane method and their solutions are collected at the master level. We also develop a three-step rounding heuristic to transform the fractional subproblem solutions into feasible integral solutions. Computational experiments on data from the Chicago metropolitan area with hundreds of thousands of households and thousands of candidate stations show that our approach produces high-quality solutions in cases where existing exact methods cannot even load the model in memory. We also analyze various policy scenarios, demonstrating that combining existing depots with newly built stations under multiagency collaboration substantially reduces costs and congestion. These findings offer a scalable and efficient framework for developing sustainable large-scale EV charging networks.

Capacity allocation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effects of grain size and porosity on cladding failure in high-burnup UO 2 : A sensitivity and uncertainty study

Isotopic taggants are being studied to aid in the provenance assessment of nuclear materials. However, these taggants must be selected such that they do not adversely affect fuel performance during normal operation or accident scenarios. Taggants are known to affect the fuel’s grain size and porosity. In the work described in this paper, the BISON fuel performance code was used to assess the potential effects of taggants (i.e., grain size and porosity) on fuel rod behavior and cladding failure during a high-burnup, large-break loss-of-coolant accident. Here, 281 individual fuel rods from the same reactor core were modeled for a sensitivity study, a parametric study, and uncertainty quantification. The cladding failure predictions often exhibited stochastic behavior. After additional study, it was found that the cladding failure model is highly sensitive to residual error inherent to numerical approximation solvers. Some strategies to mitigate this sensitivity are discussed. The study found no relationship between known taggant effects and cladding failure status. However, taggants were found to affect the time and location of failure in certain rods. In conclusion, future work to continue investigating and validating these findings is briefly discussed.

Doped UO 2↗
DOE OSTI2023

Primordial gravitational waves from black hole evaporation in standard and nonstandard cosmologies

Gravitons radiated from light, evaporating black holes contribute to the stochastic background of gravitational waves. The spectrum of such emission depends on both the mass and the spin of the black holes, as well as on the redshifting that occurs between the black hole formation and today. This, in turn, depends on the expansion history of the Universe, which is largely unknown and unconstrained at times prior to the synthesis of light elements. Here, we explore the features of the stochastic background of gravitational waves from black hole evaporation under a broad range of possible early cosmological histories. The resulting gravitational wave signals typically peak at very high frequencies, and offer opportunities for proposed ultrahigh-frequency gravitational wave detectors. Lower-frequency peaks are also possible, albeit with a suppressed intensity that is likely well below the threshold of detectability. We find that the largest intensity peaks correspond to cosmologies dominated by fluids with equations of state that have large pressure-to-density ratios. Such scenarios can be constrained on the basis of violation of Δ⁢N eff bounds.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Decomposing causality into its synergistic, unique, and redundant components

Causality lies at the heart of scientific inquiry, serving as the fundamental basis for understanding interactions among variables in physical systems. Despite its central role, current methods for causal inference face significant challenges due to nonlinear dependencies, stochastic interactions, self-causation, collider effects, and influences from exogenous factors, among others. While existing methods can effectively address some of these challenges, no single approach has successfully integrated all these aspects. Here, we address these challenges with SURD: Synergistic-Unique-Redundant Decomposition of causality. SURD quantifies causality as the increments of redundant, unique, and synergistic information gained about future events from past observations. The formulation is non-intrusive and applicable to both computational and experimental investigations, even when samples are scarce. We benchmark SURD in scenarios that pose significant challenges for causal inference and demonstrate that it offers a more reliable quantification of causality compared to previous methods.

applied mathematics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-Informed Sparse Gaussian Process for Probabilistic Stability Analysis of Large-Scale Power System with Dynamic PVs and Loads

This work proposes a physics-informed sparse Gaussian process (SGP) for probabilistic stability assessment of large-scale power systems in the presence of uncertain dynamic PVs and loads. The differential and algebraic equations considering uncertainties from dynamic PVs and loads are reformulated to a nonlinear mapping relationship that allows the application of SGP. Thanks to the nonparametric characteristic of Gaussian process, the proposed framework does not require distributions of uncertain inputs and this distinguishes it from existing approaches. As the original Gaussian process is not scalable to large-scale systems with high dimensional uncertain inputs, this paper develops the SGP with a stochastic variational inference technique. It leads to approximately two orders of complex reduction. A data pre-processing step is also introduced to tackle the coexistence of stable and unstable cases by sample clustering and constructing separate SGPs. The probabilistic transient stability index is analyzed to assess system stability under different uncertain dynamics loads and PVs. Comparisons are performed with the sampling-based, the polynomial chaos expansion-based, and traditional Gaussian process-based methods on the modified IEEE 118-bus and Texas 2000-bus systems under various scenarios, including different levels of uncertainties and the existence of nonlinear correlations among dynamic PVs. The impacts of data quality and quantity issues are also investigated. It is shown that the proposed SGP achieves significantly improved computational efficiency while maintaining high accuracy with a limited number of data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗