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NASA NTRS1964

Unmanned Spacecraft of the United States

In 1957 the first earth satellite ushered in the age of space flight. Since that historic event, space exploration has become a major national objective of both the United States and the Soviet Union. These two nations have attempted a total of well over 200 space flight missions. Other nations are also participating in various degrees in what will continue to grow as a cooperative world effort. In the years since 1957, man has successfully flown in earth orbit. He has initiated programs to land on the moon and return. He has made dramatic applications of earth satellites in meteorology, communications, navigation, and geodesy. A host of scientific satellites.continue to advance understanding of the earth's environment, the sun, and the stars. Automated spacecraft are being flown to the moon, deep into interplanetary space, and to the near planets, Mars and Venus. One of the most exciting technological aspects of space exploration has been the development of automated spacecraft. Most of the scientific exploration of space and the useful applications of space flight thus far have been made possible by automated spacecraft. Development of these spacecraft and their many complex subsystems is setting the pace today for many branches of science and technology. Guidance, computer, attitude control, power, telecommunication, instrumentation, and structural subsystems are being subjected to new standards of light weight, high efficiency, extreme accuracy, and unsurpassed reliability and quality. This publication reviews the automated spacecraft which have been developed and flown, or which are under active development in the United States by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. From the facts and statistics contained herein, certain observations can be made and certain conclusions drawn.

Cortright, Edgar M.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Advances in Landslide Hazard Forecasting: Evaluation of Global and Regional Modeling Approach

A prototype global satellite-based landslide hazard algorithm has been developed to identify areas that exhibit a high potential for landslide activity by combining a calculation of landslide susceptibility with satellite-derived rainfall estimates. A recent evaluation of this algorithm framework found that while this tool represents an important first step in larger-scale landslide forecasting efforts, it requires several modifications before it can be fully realized as an operational tool. The evaluation finds that the landslide forecasting may be more feasible at a regional scale. This study draws upon a prior work's recommendations to develop a new approach for considering landslide susceptibility and forecasting at the regional scale. This case study uses a database of landslides triggered by Hurricane Mitch in 1998 over four countries in Central America: Guatemala, Honduras, EI Salvador and Nicaragua. A regional susceptibility map is calculated from satellite and surface datasets using a statistical methodology. The susceptibility map is tested with a regional rainfall intensity-duration triggering relationship and results are compared to global algorithm framework for the Hurricane Mitch event. The statistical results suggest that this regional investigation provides one plausible way to approach some of the data and resolution issues identified in the global assessment, providing more realistic landslide forecasts for this case study. Evaluation of landslide hazards for this extreme event helps to identify several potential improvements of the algorithm framework, but also highlights several remaining challenges for the algorithm assessment, transferability and performance accuracy. Evaluation challenges include representation errors from comparing susceptibility maps of different spatial resolutions, biases in event-based landslide inventory data, and limited nonlandslide event data for more comprehensive evaluation. Additional factors that may improve algorithm performance accuracy include incorporating additional triggering factors such as tectonic activity, anthropogenic impacts and soil moisture into the algorithm calculation. Despite these limitations, the methodology presented in this regional evaluation is both straightforward to calculate and easy to interpret, making results transferable between regions and allowing findings to be placed within an inter-comparison framework. The regional algorithm scenario represents an important step in advancing regional and global-scale landslide hazard assessment and forecasting.

Kirschbaum, Dalia B.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Vector-Ordering Filter Procedure for Data Reduction

The vector-ordering filter (VOF) technique involves a procedure for sampling a large population of data vectors to select a subset of data vectors that fully characterize the state space of the large population. The VOF technique enables a large reduction of the volume of data that must be handled in the automated monitoring system and method discussed in the two immediately preceding articles. In so doing, the VOF technique enables the development of data-driven mathematical models of a monitored asset from sets of data that would otherwise exceed the memory capacities of conventional engineering computers. Data-driven mathematical models have been shown to offer high fidelity for purposes of control and monitoring of assets. In practice, a collection of asset-operating observations is acquired with the intention that the collection contain observations characteristic of the full dynamic range of operation of the asset. Often, such a collection contains an extremely large number of observations, many of which are redundant. The VOF technique fills the need for a means to extract, from the original collection of observational data, a reduced data matrix that excludes redundant data while maintaining the full statistical character and dynamic range of the original data. The reduced data matrix can then be used as the input data for development of a mathematical model of the monitored asset, or as training data for a neural-network substitute for an explicit mathematical model of the asset. Alternatively, the reduced data matrix can, itself, be used directly as a mathematical model of the monitored asset, as is commonly done in multivariate state-estimation techniques. The original data are collected from the asset over a range of operating states and are put in matrix form. Each column vector in the original data matrix represents the signal values acquired at a particular operational state of the asset. Thus, the number of columns of the original data matrix equals the number of observed states and the number of rows in this matrix equals the number of signals acquired at each observation. In the VOF technique, one extracts the reduced data matrix from the original data matrix through the selection of a representative subset of the column (state) vectors.

Bickford, Randall L.↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Dynamic Landslide Hazard Monitoring Framework for the Lower Mekong Region

The Lower Mekong region is one of the most landslide-prone areas of the world. Despite the need for dynamic characterization of landslide hazard zones within the region, it is largely understudied for several reasons. Dynamic and integrated understanding of landslide processes requires landslide inventories across the region, which have not been available previously. Computational limitations also hamper regional landslide hazard assessment, including accessing and processing remotely sensed information. Finally, open-source software and modelling packages are required to address regional landslide hazard analysis. Leveraging an open-source data-driven global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness model framework, this study develops a region-specific dynamic landslide hazard system leveraging satellite-based Earth observation data to assess landslide hazards across the lower Mekong region. A set of landslide inventories were prepared from high-resolution optical imagery using advanced image-processing techniques. Several static and dynamic explanatory variables (i.e., rainfall, soil moisture, slope, relief, distance to roads, distance to faults, distance to rivers) were considered during the model development phase. An extreme gradient boosting decision tree model was trained for the monsoon period of 2015–2019 and the model was evaluated with independent inventory information for the 2020 monsoon period. The model performance demonstrated considerable skill using receiver operating characteristic curve statistics, with Area Under the Curve values exceeding 0.95. The model architecture was designed to use near-real-time data, and it can be implemented in a cloud computing environment (i.e., Google Cloud Platform) for the routine assessment of landslide hazards in the Lower Mekong region. This work was developed in collaboration with scientists at the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center as part of the NASA SERVIR Program’s Mekong hub. The goal of this work is to develop a suite of tools and services on accessible open-source platforms that support and enable stakeholder communities to better assess landslide hazard and exposure at local to regional scales for decision making and planning.

Nishan Kumar Biswas↗

NASA NTRS1993

Percolation technique for galaxy clustering

We study percolation in mass and galaxy distributions obtained in 3D simulations of the CDM, C + HDM, and the power law (n = -1) models in the Omega = 1 universe. Percolation statistics is used here as a quantitative measure of the degree to which a mass or galaxy distribution is of a filamentary or cellular type. The very fast code used calculates the statistics of clusters along with the direct detection of percolation. We found that the two parameters mu(infinity), characterizing the size of the largest cluster, and mu-squared, characterizing the weighted mean size of all clusters excluding the largest one, are extremely useful for evaluating the percolation threshold. An advantage of using these parameters is their low sensitivity to boundary effects. We show that both the CDM and the C + HDM models are extremely filamentary both in mass and galaxy distribution. The percolation thresholds for the mass distributions are determined.

Klypin, Anatoly↗

NASA NTRS1997

Subacute diabetic proximal neuropathy

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the clinical, electrophysiologic, autonomic, and neuropathologic characteristics and the natural history of subacute diabetic proximal neuropathy and its response to immunotherapy. MATERIAL AND METHODS: For the 12-year period from 1983 to 1995, we conducted a retrospective review of medical records of Mayo Clinic patients with diabetes who had subacute onset and progression of proximal weakness. The responses of treated versus untreated patients were compared statistically. RESULTS: During the designated study period, 44 patients with subacute diabetic proximal neuropathy were encountered. Most patients were middle-aged or elderly, and no sex preponderance was noted. The proximal muscle weakness often was associated with reduced or absent lower extremity reflexes. Associated weight loss was a common finding. Frequently, patients had some evidence of demyelination on nerve conduction studies, but it invariably was accompanied by concomitant axonal degeneration. The cerebrospinal fluid protein concentration was usually increased. Diffuse and substantial autonomic failure was generally present. In most cases, a sural nerve biopsy specimen suggested demyelination, although evidence of an inflammatory infiltrate was less common. Of 12 patients who received treatment (with prednisone, intravenous immune globulin, or plasma exchange), 9 had improvement of their conditions, but 17 of 29 untreated patients (59%) with follow-up also eventually had improvement, albeit at a much slower rate. Improvement was usually incomplete. CONCLUSION: We suggest that the entity of subacute diabetic proximal neuropathy is an extensive and severe variant of bilateral lumbosacral radiculoplexopathy, with some features suggestive of an immune-mediated cause. It differs from chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyradiculoneuropathy in that most cases have a more restricted distribution and seem to be monophasic and self-limiting. The efficacy of immunotherapy is unproved, but such intervention may be considered in the severe and progressive cases or ones associated with severe neuropathic pain.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2013

Prediction of Seasonal Climate-induced Variations in Global Food Production

Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports and are therefore exposed to variations in yields, production, and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are paying increased attention to the cropping forecasts of major food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years. Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We assessed the reliability of hindcasts (i.e., retrospective forecasts for the past) of crop yield loss relative to the previous year for two lead times. Pre-season yield predictions employ climatic forecasts and have lead times of approximately 3 to 5 months for providing information regarding variations in yields for the coming cropping season. Within-season yield predictions use climatic forecasts with lead times of 1 to 3 months. Pre-season predictions can be of value to national governments and commercial concerns, complemented by subsequent updates from within-season predictions. The latter incorporate information on the most recent climatic data for the upcoming period of reproductive growth. In addition to such predictions, hindcasts using observations from satellites were performed to demonstrate the upper limit of the reliability of crop forecasting.

variations↗

NASA NTRS2015

Measuring Skew in Average Surface Roughness as a Function of Surface Preparation

Characterizing surface roughness is important for predicting optical performance. Better measurement of surface roughness reduces polishing time, saves money and allows the science requirements to be better defined. This study characterized statistics of average surface roughness as a function of polishing time. Average surface roughness was measured at 81 locations using a Zygo white light interferometer at regular intervals during the polishing process. Each data set was fit to a normal and Largest Extreme Value (LEV) distribution; then tested for goodness of fit. We show that the skew in the average data changes as a function of polishing time.

Stahl, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2003

Stochastic Models of Tropical Rain-Rate Fields

Because of the extreme variability of rain rate in space and time and the difficulties with remote sensing methods of measuring rain rates, accurate determination of rainfall over large areas and time periods has long been a problem for hydrologists, meteorogists, and climatologists. A number of statistical models of rain have been developed in order to investigate the impact of rain variability on satellite remote sensing methods, validation of satellite rain products, and generation of rain maps with accompanying error estimates. These models may be useful in examining 'sub-grid scale' issues in representing precipitation in numerical mdoels. A stochastic model will first be described which can generate time-dependent high-resolution spatial rain fields with space and time correlations similar to those seen in rain data, as well as representing the presence of areas with zero rain rate and log-normally distributed rain rates where there is rain. A simpler model derived from this, formulated in the spectral domain, seems to imply fractal-like rain statistics at small scales when fit to rain data.

Bell, Thomas L.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The Seyfert II nature of the IRAS source FSC 10214+4724

We have observed the rest-frame optical and UV spectra of the luminous, high redshift Infrared Astronomy Satellite (IRAS) source FSC 10214+4724. We find the optical emission lines to be characterized by ratios similar to those found in Seyfert II galaxies. We support the conclusion of previous work that the UV emission lines are similar to those attributed to Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) rather than to star formation. The ratio H alpha/H beta greater than or equal to 20 (2 sigma lower limit) implies substantial reddening of the narrow line region with A(sub V) greater than 5.5, sufficient to hide a broad line region in our H alpha observations. Given this large inferred reddening and the strength of the UV continuum and emission lines, we conclude (as have others) that simple screen models of reddening are not appropriate for this object. These properties are very similar to those of the infrared luminous galaxies at lower redshift, suggesting that FSC 10244+4724 is the luminous extreme of the same population. We also present H band (1.6 micrometer) imaging polarimetry observations and find that the rest-frame optical emission is unpolarized (P = 3.2% +/- 22.0%). This deep image of the field shows FSC 10214+4724 to possess an unresolved core, with several companions located within 10 sec of the point source. We find it unlikely that this group of objects is physically associated with FSC 10214+4724 at z = 2.3, and we argue that their magnitudes and colors are more consistant with those expected with those expected for galaxies in a foreground group. While galaxy number counts would suggest that such a projection has a low probability of being observed randomly, a foreground group might gravitational lens the z = 2.3 source, making such random statistics inappropriate, and contribute to the large observed luminosity of FSC 10214+4724. Comparison of H band images taken on two occasions one year apart show that FSC 10214+4724 had varied by 0.16 +/- 0.03 mag relative to a nearby star during that time. The UV-optical emission line spectra, the bright dereddened continuum magnitude (K less than 12) of the unresolved core, its extremely large bolometric luminosity, strong UV polarization, and possible variability all suggest that FSC 10214+4724 harbors an obscured AGN. Given that we observe no spectral features attributable to star formation, it appears either that star formation in FSC 10214+4724 is more highly obscured at optical and UV wavelengths than the narrow line region of the AGN, or that the AGN (rather than star formation) dominates the large luminosity of this object.

Elston, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2005

Studies of Coronae and Large Volcanoes on Venus: Constraining the Diverse Outcomes of Small-Scale Mantle Upwellings on Venus

Proxemy Research had a grant from NASA to perform science research on upwelling and volcanism on Venus. This was a 3 year Planetary Geology and Geophysics grant to E. Stofan, entitled Coronae and Large volcanoes on Venus. This grant closes on 12/31/05. Here we summarize the scientific progress and accomplishments of this grant. Scientific publications and abstracts of presentations are indicated in the final section. This was a very productive grant and the progress that was made is summarized. Attention is drawn to the publications and abstracts published in each year. The proposal consisted of two tasks, one examining coronae and one studying large volcanoes. The corona task (Task 1) consisted of three parts: 1) a statistical study of the updated corona population, with Sue Smrekar, Lori Glaze, Paula Martin and Steve Baloga; 2) geologic analysis of several specific groups of coronae, with Sue Smrekar and others; and 3) determining the histories and significance of a number of coronae with extreme amounts of volcanism, with Sue Smrekar. Task 2, studies of large volcanoes, consisted of two subtasks. In the first, we studied the geologic history of several volcanoes, with John Guest, Peter Grindrod, Antony Brian and Steve Anderson. In the second subtask, I analyzed a number of Venusian volcanoes with evidence of summit diking along with Peter Grindrod and Francis Nimmo.

Stofan, Ellen R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Formation and Propagation of Atmospheric River and Its Impact on Extreme Precipitation Events in the North Pacific and the Western North America

Seasonal and interannual evolution patterns of atmospheric rivers (AR) in the North Pacific are examined as a function of the formation region where an AR is first detected using 43-year MERRA-2 reanalysis data. Integrated water vapor transport (IVT) is used to detect AR with latitude dependent thresholds of IVT to better detect AR-like features in the high latitudes. Based on 3-hourly AR statistics, three main AR genesis regions in the North Pacific (i.e., South China Sea (SCS), Western North Pacific (WNP) and Central Pacific Ocean and Hawaiian Islands (CPO) are identified. WNP is the main source of AR with 1475 ARs detected for 43 cold seasons (NDJFM). Over 70% of all AR formed in the WNP has longer than 2-day. On the other hand, AR from CPO tends to have shorter lifetime than those from WNP and SCS. While propagation patterns of AR from SCS and WNP are similar, AR from WNP tends to reach mature phase quicker and shows higher change of impacting west coast of North America. Longevity and strength of AR are also examined based on three large-scale circulation modes (e.g. ENSO, WP, and EAJS) over the East Asia identified from eigen analysis of upper-level zonal winds. During El Nino, the number of AR formed in the western Pacific increased by 20%. First two days, the average size and intensity shows little difference compared with ARs in La Nina years. AR appears to grow in size in El Nino vs. La Nina years. Positive phase of WP correlated with less, but larger and stronger AR formation over WNP and SCS regions. EAJS has little impact in the numbers of AR and its size, but ARs in a stronger EAJS tends to grow larger. Atmospheric circulation associated with the initial formation and propagation of AR from the different regions in the North Pacific as well as its impact on extreme precipitation events in the North Pacific and the west coast of North America will be also discussed.

Integrated water vapor transport↗

NASA NTRS1993

AMPTE/CCE CHEM observations of the energetic ion population at geosynchronous altitudes

The paper presents results of a statistical study of average characteristics of the energetic ion population at geosynchronous altitudes, using energetic-ion (1-300 keV/e) measurements from the CHEM spectrometer aboard the AMPTE Charge Composition Explorer between January 1985 and June 1987. Data were sorted into four MLT groups and two extreme geomagnetic activity levels ('very quiet' for AE less than 30 nT and 'very active' for AE greater than 700 nT). A clear quiet-time dayside feature found in the measurements was a dip in H(+) and He(2+) spectra, at 6.6 keV/e in the prenoon sector and at 3.5 keV/e in the postnoon sector. During active times, the ion fluxes increased (except for He(+)), and the O(+) contribution to the total energy density increased dramatically. The pitch angle distributions were normal during quiet times and isotropic or field-aligned during active times.

Daglis, Ioannis A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Influence of the Solar Proton Events and Ground Level Enhancement in January 2005

Solar eruptions in early 2005 led substantial barrage of charged particles on the Earth's atmosphere during the January 16-21 period. Proton fluxes were greatly increased during these several days and led to the production ofHO(x)(H, OH, BO2)and NO(x)(N, NO, NO2), which then caused the destruction of ozone. We focus on the Northern polar region, where satellite measurements and simulations with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM3) showed large enhancements in mesospheric HO(x) and NO(x) constituents, and associated ozone reductions, due 10 these solar proton events (SPEs). The WACCM3 simulations show enhanced short-lived OH throughout the mesosphere in the 60-82.5degN latitude band due to the SPEs for most days in the Jan.16-2l,2005 period, in reasonable agreement with the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) measurements. Mesospheric HO2 is also predicted to be increased by the SPEs, however, the modeled HO2 results are somewhat larger than the MLS measurements. These HO(x) enhancements led to huge predicted and MLS-measured ozone decreases of greater than 40% throughout most of the Northern polar mesosphere during the SPE period. Envisat Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) measurements of hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) show increases throughout the stratosphere with highest enhancements of about 60 ppt y in the lowermost mesosphere over the Jan. 16-18, 2005 period due to the solar protons. WACCM3 predictions indicate H2O2 enhancements over the same time period of more than twice that amount. Measurements of nitric acid (HNO3) by both MLS and MIPAS show an increase of about 1 ppbv above background levels in the upper stratosphere during January 16-29, 2005. WACCM3 simulations show only minuscule HNO3 changes in the upper stratosphere during this time period. However due to the small loss rates during winter, polar mesospheric enhancements of NO(x) are computed to be greater than 50 ppbv during the SPE period. Computed NO(x)increases, which were statistically significant at the 95% level, lasted about a month past the SPEs. The SCISAT-I Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) NO(x) measurements and MIPAS NO, measurements for the polar Northern Hemisphere are in reasonable agreement with these predictions. An extremely large ground level enhancement (GLE) occurred during the SPE period on January 20, 2005. We find that protons of energies 300 to 20,000 MeV, not normally included in our computations, led to enhanced lower stratospheric odd nitrogen concentrations of less than 0.1% as a result of this GLE.

Jackman, C. H.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Determination of Uncertainties for Analytically Derived Material Properties to Be Used in Monte Carlo Based Orion Heatshield Sizing

Ablative materials are often used for spacecraft heatshields to protect underlying structures from the extreme environments associated with atmospheric reentry. NASA's Orion EM-1 capsule has been designed to use a molded Avcoat material system. In order to determine the required heatshield thickness, a Monte Carlo approach to the sizing process was proposed. To perform the Monte Carlo simulation, statistical uncertainties on all material property input parameters were required. Obtaining these values for measured properties is straightforward, however input parameters that are derived analytically have historically used uncertainties based on engineering judgment. A MATLAB program was created to use laboratory generated thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) data to calculate uncertainties on the Arrhenius parameters for molded Avcoat. Uncertainties associated with the normalized ablation rate and pyrolysis gas enthalpy were also generated using a wrapper script and the ACE code. These uncertainties could then be tied directly to measured values of individual elemental constituents. The resulting uncertainty values will allow for a probabilistic sizing approach on molded Avcoat with a higher level of confidence in the input parameters.

material property uncertainties↗

NASA NTRS1994

VLSI neuroprocessors

Electronic and optoelectronic hardware implementations of highly parallel computing architectures address several ill-defined and/or computation-intensive problems not easily solved by conventional computing techniques. The concurrent processing architectures developed are derived from a variety of advanced computing paradigms including neural network models, fuzzy logic, and cellular automata. Hardware implementation technologies range from state-of-the-art digital/analog custom-VLSI to advanced optoelectronic devices such as computer-generated holograms and e-beam fabricated Dammann gratings. JPL's concurrent processing devices group has developed a broad technology base in hardware implementable parallel algorithms, low-power and high-speed VLSI designs and building block VLSI chips, leading to application-specific high-performance embeddable processors. Application areas include high throughput map-data classification using feedforward neural networks, terrain based tactical movement planner using cellular automata, resource optimization (weapon-target assignment) using a multidimensional feedback network with lateral inhibition, and classification of rocks using an inner-product scheme on thematic mapper data. In addition to addressing specific functional needs of DOD and NASA, the JPL-developed concurrent processing device technology is also being customized for a variety of commercial applications (in collaboration with industrial partners), and is being transferred to U.S. industries. This viewgraph p resentation focuses on two application-specific processors which solve the computation intensive tasks of resource allocation (weapon-target assignment) and terrain based tactical movement planning using two extremely different topologies. Resource allocation is implemented as an asynchronous analog competitive assignment architecture inspired by the Hopfield network. Hardware realization leads to a two to four order of magnitude speed-up over conventional techniques and enables multiple assignments, (many to many), not achievable with standard statistical approaches. Tactical movement planning (finding the best path from A to B) is accomplished with a digital two-dimensional concurrent processor array. By exploiting the natural parallel decomposition of the problem in silicon, a four order of magnitude speed-up over optimized software approaches has been demonstrated.

Kemeny, Sabrina E.↗

NASA NTRS2017

POEMMA: Probe of Extreme Multi-Messenger Astrophysics

The Probe Of Extreme Multi-Messenger Astrophysics (POEMMA) mission is being designed to establish charged-particle astronomy with ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) and to observe cosmogenic tau neutrinos (CTNs). The study of UHECRs and CTNs from space will yield orders-of-magnitude increase in statistics of observed UHECRs at the highest energies, and the observation of the cosmogenic flux of neutrinos for a range of UHECR models. These observations should solve the long-standing puzzle of the origin of the highest energy particles ever observed, providing a new window onto the most energetic environments and events in the Universe, while studying particle interactions well beyond accelerator energies. The discovery of CTNs will help solve the puzzle of the origin of UHECRs and begin a new field of Astroparticle Physics with the study of neutrino properties at ultra-high energies.

Olinto, Angela V.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Application of the Global Precipitation Forecast dataset for Global Landslide Forecasting System

Landslides are extremely damaging, pervasive and cause fatalities and economic impacts. Extreme rainfall events, coupled with inopportune surface conditions, are the primary triggers of landslides around the world. Forecasting landslide events represent an area of open research. A global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model has been created that provides near real-time dynamic landslide characterization using Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission (IMERG). However, it does not provide information on prediction of landslides into future. This study considers how global precipitation forecast data compares to satellite rainfall at different spatiotemporal scales and outlines the potential for its use in landslide hazard prediction/forecasting system. NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS)-Forecast model assimilates new observations every 6 hours, at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC. The GEOS-Forecast model is initialized at 00 UTC and is evaluated with IMERG Early, using Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor gauge corrected (MRMS-GC) precipitation product as a reference over contiguous United States (CONUS). Categorical and continuous statistics along with probability density functions and cumulative distribution functions are considered to assess the performance of the precipitation products, with a focus on landslide hotspots. Seasonality appears to influence the performance of both the GEOS-Forecast and IMERG Early product. Moreover, the global comparison between the GEOS-Forecast and IMERG Early is carried out in terms of percentile difference, correlation, and bias maps. For extreme rainfall events in regions such as Mekong, Colombia, and Tajikistan, GEOS-Forecast appears to resolve high rainfall relative to IMERG Early more frequently. Validation over landslide points reveal that for 24hr rainfall accumulations > 100mm, GEOS-Forecast and IMERG coincide. GEOS-Forecast and IMERG Early precipitation matches more closely for tropical cyclones than other types of storms. Overall, the performance varies with respect to location, rainfall intensities, and type of precipitation events.

Sana Khan↗