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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

How do Hydrological Variability and Human Activities Control the Spatiotemporal Changes of Riverine Nitrogen Export in the Upper Mississippi River Basin?

Excessive nitrogen export from agricultural watersheds remains a critical water quality challenge, with the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) significantly contributing to downstream eutrophication and hypoxia in the Gulf. This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of riverine nitrate plus nitrite (NO 3 − + NO 2 − -N) export across the UMRB at high spatial resolution (12-digit Hydrologic Unit Codes or HUC12 subwatershed scale) during 2001−2020 and quantifies the effects of anthropogenic activities and hydrological variability on riverine NO 3 − + NO 2 − -N export changes in the region between 2001−2005 and 2016−2020. Our results revealed hotspots of substantial increases in NO 3 − + NO 2 − -N yields across the UMRB, with distinct regional patterns in driving factors. Over the entire UMRB, NO 3 − + NO 2 − -N yields increased by 9.7 kg/ha/yr on average from 2001−2005 to 2016−2020, with anthropogenic activities contributing 4.8 kg/ha/yr and hydrological variability contributing 4.9 kg/ha/yr. The northern and western UMRB had combined influences from both anthropogenic activities and hydrological variability, while the east-central regions had predominantly hydrologically driven changes. Agricultural sources, including fertilizer, manure, and biological nitrogen fixation, collectively contributed over 80% of NO 3 − + NO 2 − -N loading throughout the basin. Furthermore, this framework for disentangling human and hydrological impacts provides critical insights for developing effective and targeted watershed management strategies to reduce nutrient losses and improve water quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Subsurface heatwaves in lakes

Abstract Lake heatwaves (extreme hot water events) can substantially disrupt aquatic ecosystems. Although surface heatwaves are well studied, their vertical structures within lakes remain largely unexplored. Here we analyse the characteristics of subsurface lake heatwaves (extreme hot events occurring below the surface) using a spatiotemporal modelling framework. Our findings reveal that subsurface heatwaves are frequent, often longer lasting but less intense than surface events. Deep-water heatwaves (bottom heatwaves) have increased in frequency (7.2 days decade −1 ), duration (2.1 days decade −1 ) and intensity (0.2 °C days decade −1 ) over the past 40 years. Moreover, vertically compounding heatwaves, where extreme heat occurs simultaneously at the surface and bottom, have risen by 3.3 days decade −1 . By the end of the century, changes in heatwave patterns, particularly under high emissions, are projected to intensify. These findings highlight the need for subsurface monitoring to fully understand and predict the ecological impacts of lake heatwaves.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Big-Data-Driven Geo-Spatiotemporal Correlation Analysis between Precursor Pollen and Influenza and its Implication to Novel Coronavirus Outbreak

Although studies of many respiratory viruses and pollens are often framed by both seasonal and health related perspectives, pollen has yet to be extensively examined as an important covariate to seasonal respiratory viruses (SRVs) in any context, including a causal one. This study contributes to those goals through an investigation of SRVs and pollen counts at selected regions across the Western Hemisphere. Two complementary decadal-scaled geospatial profiles were developed. One laterally spanned the US and was anchored by detailed pollen information for Albuquerque, New Mexico. The other straddled the equator to include Fortaleza, Brazil. We found that the geospatial and climatological patterns of pollen advancement and decline across the US every year presented a statistically significant correlation to the subsequent emergence and decline of SRVs. Other significant covariates included winds, temperatures, and atmospheric moisture. Our study indicates that areas of the US with lower geostrophic wind baselines are typically areas of persistently higher and earlier influenza like illness (ILI) cases. In addition to that continental- scaled contrast, many sites indicated seasonal highs of geostrophic winds and ILI which were closely aligned. These observations suggest extensive scale-dependent connectivity of viruses to geostrophic circulation. Pollen emergence and its own scale-dependent circulation may contribute to the geospatial and seasonal patterns of ILI. We explore some uncertainties associated with this investigation, and consider the possibility that in a temperate climate, following a Spring pollen emergence, a resulting increase in pollen triggered human Immunoglobulin E (IgE) antibodies may suppress ILIs for several months.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the effects of heatwave events on hydrological processes in the contiguous United States (2003–2022)

Extreme heat and drought conditions are affecting water availability in many regions worldwide, leading to negative impacts on human societies, agriculture, and ecosystems. However, current research lacks comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis examining the interplay between multiple hydrological factors and heatwave events, especially in the context of climate change. This research broadly pertains to understanding the dynamics of hydrological factors and their potential responses to heatwave during warm seasons across the contiguous United States for the period from 2003 to 2022. Utilizing data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), we analyzed surface runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), precipitation, Groundwater Storage (GWS), Root Zone Soil Moisture (RZSM), and Total Water Storage (TWS) to discern annual patterns and the impacts of heatwave. Further, the spatial patterns of heatwave highlighted a higher occurrence in the western, central, and northeastern U.S., with longer average durations in the western and south-central regions. These events are predominantly dry, characterized by low Relative Humidity (RH), except in the southeastern U.S., where heatwave coincide with high RH levels. Post-heatwave analysis indicated a reduction in GWS, TWS, RZSM, and ET, alongside an increase in surface runoff, RH, and precipitation. An in-depth examination of rainfall and temperature dynamics during heatwave revealed weak correlations between rainfall and temperature, as well as between rainfall and heatwave duration, highlighting the complex nature of these interactions. The study also found an enhanced probability of rainfall following heatwave, particularly in the eastern regions, drawing attention to the potential for increased flood risks post-heatwave. Our findings contribute to the growing body of knowledge on the impacts of heatwave on hydrological factors, providing valuable insights for climate change adaptation and water resource management strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Spatiotemporal structure of edge harmonic oscillation and its role in ELM-free QH-mode at KSTAR

In Quiescent H-mode (QH-mode), edge-localized modes (ELMs) are naturally replaced by a low-n edge harmonic oscillation (EHO), yet the self-regulating transport mechanism driven by the EHO remains insufficiently understood. Using high-spatiotemporal-resolution imaging diagnostics on KSTAR—electron cyclotron emission imaging and broadband electron cyclotron emission—we resolve the eigenmode structure of the EHO and elucidate its regulatory role in edge transport. The EHO is localized within the pedestal near the maximum pressure gradient, propagates in the ion-diamagnetic direction, and its radial envelope expands with increasing shear, suggesting that rotational shear is closely associated with the structural evolution of the EHO. Information-theoretic Transfer Entropy analysis identifies a distinct ‘dual-stabilization’ regulatory interaction pattern: the EHO is associated with enhanced outward energy transport to limit the pressure gradient, while the background shear flow is associated with preferential regulatory influence on the EHO saturation amplitude and energy flux. These results demonstrate that the QH-mode pedestal is sustained by a shear-associated regulation mechanism, where the coupling between rotational shear and mode structure appears closely linked to the sustained ELM-free state.

ECEI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Co-occurrence of native white-tailed deer and invasive wild pigs: Evidence for competition?

Understanding whether invasive and native species compete for shared resources where they co-occur is essential for mitigating the negative impacts of invasive species on native ecosystems. Here, we examined how the presence and density of an invasive species, wild pigs (Sus scrofa), affect native white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus; hereafter, deer) on the Savannah River Site, SC, USA. We examined potential changes in deer areas of use, temporal overlap, and occupancy to evaluate the effects of wild pig occurrence and density on deer space use, diel activity, and co-occurrence with wild pigs across 9 months during 2018 and 2019. Wild pig density had the strongest effect on deer space use in high- and moderate-use areas. Declines in deer space use in response to wild pig density were most pronounced in March and October 2018 and April 2019 for females, while male space use declined in response to wild pig density in October and December 2018. Both species were largely nocturnal with high overlap in diel activity across months. Deer occupancy responses to wild pig density varied across months, with negative responses in May and October 2018 and positive responses in July 2018 and April 2019. Deer and wild pigs co-occurred at 30%–59% of camera stations across months, with broadscale co-occurrence patterns being unaffected by changes in shared cover or wild pig occurrence. Overall, our results suggest that deer make fine-scale behavioral adjustments to avoid wild pigs, providing evidence that competition is likely occurring even where wild pig density is relatively low. Such fine-scale behavioral plasticity in deer appears to mitigate the costs of competition with wild pigs and may be a mechanism enabling long-term co-existence of deer and wild pigs. Our study provides novel insight on the complexities of spatiotemporal relationships between invasive wild pigs and native deer and suggests that the negative effects of interactions between deer and wild pigs may be more pronounced when deer life history needs are particularly demanding. In areas where eradication of invasive wild pigs may be impossible, maintaining low wild pig densities may help mitigate, but may not eliminate, the negative effects of wild pigs on deer.

resource partitioning↗
NASA NTRS2011

Spatially Resolved, In Situ Carbon Isotope Analysis of Archean Organic Matter

Spatiotemporal variability in the carbon isotope composition of sedimentary organic matter (OM) preserves information about the evolution of the biosphere and of the exogenic carbon cycle as a whole. Primary compositions, and imprints of the post-depositional processes that obscure them, exist at the scale of individual sedimentary grains (mm to micron). Secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) (1) enables analysis at these scales and in petrographic context, (2) permits morphological and compositional characterization of the analyte and associated minerals prior to isotopic analysis, and (3) reveals patterns of variability homogenized by bulk techniques. Here we present new methods for in situ organic carbon isotope analysis with sub-permil precision and spatial resolution to 1 micron using SIMS, as well as new data acquired from a suite of Archean rocks. Three analytical protocols were developed for the CAMECA ims1280 at WiscSIMS to analyze domains of varying size and carbon concentration. Average reproducibility (at 2SD) using a 6 micron spot size with two Faraday cup detectors was 0.4 %, and 0.8 % for analyses using 1 micron and 3 micron spot sizes with a Faraday cup (for C-12) and an electron multiplier (for C-13). Eight coals, two ambers, a shungite, and a graphite were evaluated for micron-scale isotopic heterogeneity, and LCNN anthracite (delta C-13 = -23.56 +/- 0.1 %, 2SD) was chosen as the working standard. Correlation between instrumental bias and H/C was observed and calibrated for each analytical session using organic materials with H/C between 0.1 and 1.5 (atomic), allowing a correction based upon a C-13H/C-13 measurement included in every analysis. Matrix effects of variable C/SiO2 were evaluated by measuring mm to sub-micron graphite domains in quartzite from Bogala mine, Sri Lanka. Apparent instrumental bias and C-12 count rate are correlated in this case, but this may be related to a crystal orientation effect in graphite. Analyses of amorphous Archean OM suggest that instrumental bias is consistent for 12C count rates as low as 10% relative to anthracite. Samples from the ABDP-9 (n=3; Mount McRae Shale, approximately 2.5 Ga), RHDH2a (n=2; Carrawine Dolomite and Jeerinah Fm, approximately 2.6 Ga), WRL1 (n=3; Wittenoom Fm, Marra Mamba Iron Formation, and Jeerinah Fm, approximately 2.6 Ga), and SV1 (n=1; Tumbiana Fm, approximately 2.7 Ga) drill cores, each previously analyzed for bulk organic carbon isotope composition, yielded 100 new, in situ data from Neoarchean sedimentary OM. In these samples, delta C-13 varies between -53.1 and -28.3 % and offsets between in situ and bulk compositions range from -8.3 to 18.8%. In some cases, isotopic composition and mode of occurrence (e.g. morphology and mineral associations) are statistically correlated, enabling the identification of distinct reservoirs of OM. Our results support previous evidence for gradients of oxidation with depth in Neoarchean environments driven by photosynthesis and methane metabolism. The relevance of these findings to questions of bio- and syngenicity as well as the alteration history of previously reported Archean OM will be discussed.

Williford, Kenneth H.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Propagation of Summer Extreme Precipitation Events over United States: A Complex Network Analysis

Complex Network (CN) is a graph-theory based depiction of relation shared by various elements of a complex-dynamical system such as the atmosphere. Here we applied the concept of CN to understand the directionality and topological structure of summer extreme precipitation events (SEPEs) over the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SEPEs are calculated based on the 95th percentile daily rainfall at 0.5ox0.5o spatial resolution for CONUS to investigate the multi-dimensional characteristics of precipitation extremes. The derived CN coefficients (e.g., betweenness centrality, clustering coefficient, orientation, and network divergence) reveal important structural and dynamical information about the topology of the SEPEs and improve understanding of the dominant meteorological patterns. The initiation and propagation of SEPEs from the source-zones to the sink-zones are identified. The SEPEs are influenced by topography, dominant wind patterns, and moisture sources in terms of their topological structure and spatial dynamics.

Mondal, Somnath↗
DOE OSTI2025

Source Analysis of Ozone Pollution in Liaoyuan City’s Atmosphere Based on Machine Learning Models and HYSPLIT Clustering Method

Firstly, this study investigates the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the ozone (O 3 ) pollution in Liaoyuan City using monitoring data from 2015 to 2024. Then, three machine learning models (ML)—random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN)—are employed to quantify the influence of meteorological and non-meteorological factors on O 3 concentrations. Finally, the HYSPLIT clustering method and CMAQ model are utilized to analyze inter-regional transport characteristics, identifying the causes of O 3 pollution. The results indicate that O 3 pollution in Liaoyuan exhibits a distinct seasonal pattern, with the highest concentrations found in spring and summer, peaking in the afternoon. Among the three ML models, the random forest model demonstrates the best predictive performance (R 2 = 0.9043). Feature importance identifies NO 2 as the primary driving factor, followed by meteorological conditions in the second quarter and land surface characteristics. Furthermore, regional transport significantly contributes to O 3 pollution, with approximately 80% of air mass trajectories in heavily polluted episodes originating from adjacent industrial areas and the sea. The combined effects of transboundary precursors and O 3 transport with local emissions and meteorological conditions further increase the O 3 pollution level. This study highlights the need to strengthen coordinated NO X and VOCs emission reductions and enhance regional joint prevention and control strategies in China.

HYSPLIT clustering↗
DOE OSTI2020

Remote Sensing-Informed Zonation for Understanding Snow, Plant and Soil Moisture Dynamics within a Mountain Ecosystem

In the headwater catchments of the Rocky Mountains, plant productivity and its dynamics are largely dependent upon water availability, which is influenced by changing snowmelt dynamics associated with climate change. Understanding and quantifying the interactions between snow, plants and soil moisture is challenging, since these interactions are highly heterogeneous in mountainous terrain, particularly as they are influenced by microtopography within a hillslope. Recent advances in satellite remote sensing have created an opportunity for monitoring snow and plant dynamics at high spatiotemporal resolutions that can capture microtopographic effects. In this study, we investigate the relationships among topography, snowmelt, soil moisture and plant dynamics in the East River watershed, Crested Butte, Colorado, based on a time series of 3-meter resolution PlanetScope normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) images. To make use of a large volume of high-resolution time-lapse images (17 images total), we use unsupervised machine learning methods to reduce the dimensionality of the time lapse images by identifying spatial zones that have characteristic NDVI time series. We hypothesize that each zone represents a set of similar snowmelt and plant dynamics that differ from other identified zones and that these zones are associated with key topographic features, plant species and soil moisture. We compare different distance measures (Ward and complete linkage) to understand the effects of their influence on the zonation map. Results show that the identified zones are associated with particular microtopographic features; highly productive zones are associated with low slopes and high topographic wetness index, in contrast with zones of low productivity, which are associated with high slopes and low topographic wetness index. The zones also correspond to particular plant species distributions; higher forb coverage is associated with zones characterized by higher peak productivity combined with rapid senescence in low moisture conditions, while higher sagebrush coverage is associated with low productivity and similar senescence patterns between high and low moisture conditions. In addition, soil moisture probe and sensor data confirm that each zone has a unique soil moisture distribution. This cluster-based analysis can tractably analyze high-resolution time-lapse images to examine plant-soil-snow interactions, guide sampling and sensor placements and identify areas likely vulnerable to ecological change in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Meeting Global Health Needs via Infectious Disease Forecasting: Development of a Reliable Data-Driven Framework

Infectious diseases (IDs) have a significant detrimental impact on global health. Timely and accurate ID forecasting can result in more informed implementation of control measures and prevention policies. To meet the operational decision-making needs of real-world circumstances, we aimed to build a standardized, reliable, and trustworthy ID forecasting pipeline and visualization dashboard that is generalizable across a wide range of modeling techniques, IDs, and global locations. We forecasted 6 diverse, zoonotic diseases (brucellosis, campylobacteriosis, Middle East respiratory syndrome, Q fever, tick-borne encephalitis, and tularemia) across 4 continents and 8 countries. We included a wide range of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models (n=9) and trained them on a multitude of features (average n=2326) within the One Health landscape, including demography, landscape, climate, and socioeconomic factors. The pipeline and dashboard were created in consideration of crucial operational metrics—prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, spatiotemporal generalizability, uncertainty quantification, and interpretability—which are essential to strategic data-driven decisions. While no single best model was suitable for all disease, region, and country combinations, our ensemble technique selects the best-performing model for each given scenario to achieve the closest prediction. For new or emerging diseases in a region, the ensemble model can predict how the disease may behave in the new region using a pretrained model from a similar region with a history of that disease. The data visualization dashboard provides a clean interface of important analytical metrics, such as ID temporal patterns, forecasts, prediction uncertainties, and model feature importance across all geographic locations and disease combinations. As the need for real-time, operational ID forecasting capabilities increases, this standardized and automated platform for data collection, analysis, and reporting is a major step forward in enabling evidence-based public health decisions and policies for the prevention and mitigation of future ID outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Additive friction stir deposition induced stress ripples in aluminum alloy

In additive manufacturing, modification of the viscosity of softened or molten metal plays a significant role in the development of mechanical properties distribution. Similar to soft polymers, molten or softened metal usually exhibits vastly different viscoelastic properties. During scratching tests, viscoelastic polymers undergo spatiotemporal stress development and relaxation, causing stress ripples to form on their surfaces. Here, it is observed that friction stir-based solid-state manufacturing can yield similar stress ripples on softened aluminum alloys due to the linear motion of the deposition tool. Softened aluminum alloys exhibit viscoelastic and viscoplastic responses similar to polymeric material during the solid-state deposition process. In the final product, residual stress ripples appear on the surface of the metal alloy due to periodic residual stress relaxation, leading to oscillatory behavior from the bulk mechanical properties of the material. The orientation of the in-built stress pattern formed in the bulk of the additively manufactured metal alloy underneath the visually evident onion ring-like surface pattern formation is diametrically in the opposite direction. The experimentally observed results are consistent with analytical calculation and numerical simulations in terms of behaviors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

A daily, 250 m and real-time gross primary productivity product (2000–present) covering the contiguous United States

Abstract. Gross primary productivity (GPP) quantifies the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) fixed by plants through photosynthesis. Although as a key quantity of terrestrial ecosystems, there is a lack of high-spatial-and-temporal-resolution, real-time and observation-based GPP products. To address this critical gap, here we leverage a state-of-the-art vegetation index, near-infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRV), along with accurate photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), to produce a SatelLite Only Photosynthesis Estimation (SLOPE) GPP product for the contiguous United States (CONUS). Compared to existing GPP products, the proposed SLOPE product is advanced in its spatial resolution (250 m versus >500 m), temporal resolution (daily versus 8 d), instantaneity (latency of 1 d versus >2 weeks) and quantitative uncertainty (on a per-pixel and daily basis versus no uncertainty information available). These characteristics are achieved because of several technical innovations employed in this study: (1) SLOPE couples machine learning models with MODIS atmosphere and land products to accurately estimate PAR. (2) SLOPE couples highly efficient and pragmatic gap-filling and filtering algorithms with surface reflectance acquired by both Terra and Aqua MODIS satellites to derive a soil-adjusted NIRV (SANIRV) dataset. (3) SLOPE couples a temporal pattern recognition approach with a long-term Cropland Data Layer (CDL) product to predict dynamic C4 crop fraction. Through developing a parsimonious model with only two slope parameters, the proposed SLOPE product explains 85 % of the spatial and temporal variations in GPP acquired from 49 AmeriFlux eddy-covariance sites (324 site years), with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 1.63 gC m−2 d−1. The median R2 over C3 and C4 crop sites reaches 0.87 and 0.94, respectively, indicating great potentials for monitoring crops, in particular bioenergy crops, at the field level. With such a satisfactory performance and its distinct characteristics in spatiotemporal resolution and instantaneity, the proposed SLOPE GPP product is promising for biological and environmental research, carbon cycle research, and a broad range of real-time applications at the regional scale. The archived dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1786 (download page: https://daac.ornl.gov/daacdata/cms/SLOPE_GPP_CONUS/data/, last access: 20 January 2021) (Jiang and Guan, 2020), and the real-time dataset is available upon request.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atmospheric teleconnection associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability in summer: assessment of the CESM1 model

Observational analysis shows that the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is associated with climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere through a zonal atmospheric teleconnection extending from the North Atlantic Ocean and propagating eastward around the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we studied the fidelity of model simulations in reproducing the observed summer AMV and the associated impacts on the mid-latitude climate by analysing simulations using the National Centre for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model Version 1 (CESM1), including CESM1 North Atlantic idealized and pacemaker simulations, CESM1 large ensemble twentieth century uninitialized simulations and large ensemble initialized CESM1 decadal predictions. To further compare the fidelity of CESM1, we also analysed large ensemble simulations from three other models. Our results suggest that the uninitialized large ensemble simulations from all models can produce an AMV time evolution and its regional climate impacts similar to the observations to certain degree. By initializing the observed oceanic condition in decadal prediction simulations, the simulated AMV and its regional impacts are closer to the observed ones than those in uninitialized ensemble simulations. In addition, the pacemaker simulations that nudged the time-evolving observed North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies produce spatiotemporal characteristics of the AMV and AMV climate impacts closer to the observed ones than the uninitialized simulations. We conclude that although coupled models can produce AMV and its regional impacts similar to observed, proper initialization and bias correction of the sea surface temperature spatial and temporal structure can improve this capability.

Initialization↗
DOE OSTI2026

4D Multimodal Co-attention Fusion Network with Latent Contrastive Alignment for Alzheimer’s Diagnosis

Multimodal neuroimaging provides complementary structural and functional insights into both human brain organization and disease-related dynamics. Recent studies demonstrate enhanced diagnostic sensitivity for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) through synergistic integration of neuroimaging data (e.g., sMRI, fMRI) with tabular data (e.g., behavioral and cognitive tests). However, the intrinsic heterogeneity across modalities (e.g., 4D spatiotemporal fMRI dynamics vs. 3D anatomical sMRI structure) presents critical challenges for discriminative feature fusion, often leading to information loss or biased fusion. To bridge this gap, we propose M2M-AlignNet: a multimodal co-attention network with latent alignment for early AD diagnosis using sMRI and fMRI. At the core of our approach is a multi-patch-to-multi-patch (M2M) contrastive loss function that quantifies and reduces representational discrepancies via weighted patch correspondence, explicitly aligning fMRI components across brain regions with their sMRI structural substrates without one-to-one constraints. Additionally, we propose a latent-as-query co-attention module to autonomously discover fusion patterns, circumventing modality prioritization biases while minimizing feature redundancy. We conduct extensive experiments to confirm the effectiveness of our method and highlight the correspondence between fMRI and sMRI as AD biomarkers.

Wei, Yuxiang [Georgia Institute of Technology]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding the Spatiotemporal Variability of Tropical Orographic Rainfall Using Convective Plume Buoyancy

Abstract Mechanical forcing by orography affects precipitating convection across many tropical regions, but controls on the intensity and horizontal extent of the orographic precipitation peak and rain shadow remain poorly understood. A recent theory explains this control of precipitation as arising from modulation of lower-tropospheric temperature and moisture by orographic mechanical forcing, setting the distribution of convective rainfall by controlling parcel buoyancy. Using satellite and reanalysis data, we evaluate this theory by investigating spatiotemporal precipitation variations in six mountainous tropical regions spanning South and Southeast Asia, and the Maritime Continent. We show that a strong relationship holds in these regions between daily precipitation and a measure of convective plume buoyancy. This measure depends on boundary layer thermodynamic properties and lower-free-tropospheric moisture and temperature. Consistent with the theory, temporal variations in lower-free-tropospheric temperature are primarily modulated by orographic mechanical lifting through changes in cross-slope wind speed. However, winds directed along background horizontal moisture gradients also influence lower-tropospheric moisture variations in some regions. The buoyancy measure is also shown to explain many aspects of the spatial patterns of precipitation. Finally, we present a linear model with two horizontal dimensions that combines mountain wave dynamics with a linearized closure exploiting the relationship between precipitation and plume buoyancy. In some regions, this model skillfully captures the spatial structure and intensity of rainfall; it underestimates rainfall in regions where time-mean ascent in large-scale convergence zones shapes lower-tropospheric humidity. Overall, these results provide new understanding of fundamental processes controlling subseasonal and spatial variations in tropical orographic precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing 2D hydrodynamic flood models through machine learning and urban drainage integration

Two-dimensional hydrodynamic flood models are commonly employed for simulating flood extent and inundation depth. However, the influence of urban drainage network (UDN) is frequently overlooked in these models, potentially compromising their accuracy. Furthermore, the expensive computational costs and longer processing times make them challenging for large-scale hydrodynamic simulation. To address these challenges, this paper develops a machine learning (ML)-driven emulator for an open-source flood model, the Two-dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for Operational Needs (TRITON). A TRITON-ML Emulator (TR-Emulator) that utilizes Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory is developed to capture the spatiotemporal features of flood events based on the outputs from TRITON. We further enhance the emulator by integrating UDN parameters (TR-UDN), such as the flow capacity of drainage pipes, pipe size, and pipe length, via an ML stacking technique to improve the water surface elevation (WSE) simulation. Hurricane Harvey 2017 in Houston, TX is used as the case study. We compare WSE results from TRITON, TR-Emulator, TR-UDN, and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) observations to evaluate the performance of these models. The results indicate that the TR-Emulator effectively replicates the WSE simulated by TRITON. Additionally, TR-UDN performs well in capturing WSE patterns and peak flows, aligning more closely with USGS observations, except in areas with milder slopes where conveyance discrepancies are observed. We further test the generalizability of our ML-based models using another smaller event. This paper shows that the TR-Emulator is effective for users and engineers to emulate a 2D hydrodynamic model, and the enhanced version of the TR-Emulator, TR-UDN, can be an efficient tool for predicting WSEs during urban flooding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Progress Towards a Predictive Eagle Behavior and Risk Modeling Framework: Overview and Recent Validation Efforts

This presentation summarizes progress to date of the U.S. Department of Energy project, "Development of a computational framework for modeling golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) near wind farms," which focuses on stochastic behavioral modeling of soaring raptors across landscape, facility, and turbine spatiotemporal scales. This publicly available, open-source modeling framework includes behavioral models based on three different underlying principles: energy minimization at landscape scale, behavioral heuristics at landscape-facility scale, and data-driven behaviors at the facility-micro-scale. We will briefly overview the key advancements in the behavioral modeling state of the art, which leverages multiple high-resolution telemetry data sources combined with high-fidelity atmospheric flow modeling insights. We then present preliminary results from a validation study in Altamont, California. This new study involves a novel application of the Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator (SSRS), in a new geographic locale, to understand facility scale eagle movement patterns over time scales representative of a wind project's lifetime. For this desktop analysis (that does not depend on any high-performance computing resources), SSRS simultaneously considers a variety of wind conditions and eagle approach vectors toward a project site of interest. This work demonstrates the integration of publicly available landscape-scale atmospheric datasets, our recently improved engineering updraft models (see presentation from Thedin et al.), and our energy minimization behavioral models within the SSRS framework. While we only present results from a single behavioral model, the integration of these three modeling components forms the foundation for our more sophisticated behavioral models (see presentations from Brandes et al., Sandhu et al.) that are under active development. Results are presented in the form of presence maps, which may be applied to estimate risk to wildlife, augment ground survey data, inform wind-plant operations, or incorporated into wind-plant designs.

agent-based modeling↗