Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “spatial statistics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

First observations of solar halo gamma rays over a full solar cycle

We analyze 15 years of Fermi-LAT data and produce a detailed model of the Sun’s inverse-Compton scattering emission (solar halo), which is powered by interactions between ambient cosmic-ray electrons and positrons with sunlight. By developing a novel analysis method to analyze moving sources, we robustly detect the solar halo at energies between 31.6 MeV and 100 GeV, and angular extensions up to 45° from the Sun, providing new insight into spatial regions where there are no direct measurements of the Galactic cosmic-ray flux. The large statistical significance of our signal allows us to subdivide the data and provide the first 𝛾-ray probes into the time variation and azimuthal asymmetry of the solar modulation potential, finding time-dependent changes in solar modulation both parallel and perpendicular to the ecliptic plane. Our results are consistent with (but with independent uncertainties from) local cosmic-ray measurements, unlocking new probes into astrophysical processes near the solar surface.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

MultiLoad-GAN: A GAN-Based Synthetic Load Group Generation Method Considering Spatial-Temporal Correlations

This paper presents a deep-learning framework, Multi-load Generative Adversarial Network (MultiLoad-GAN), for generating a group of synthetic load profiles (SLPs) simultaneously. The main contribution of MultiLoad-GAN is the capture of spatial-temporal correlations among a group of loads that are served by the same distribution transformer. This enables the generation of a large amount of correlated SLPs required for microgrid and distribution system studies. Here, the novelty and uniqueness of the MultiLoad-GAN framework are three-fold. First, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first method for generating a group of load profiles bearing realistic spatial- temporal correlations simultaneously. Second, two complementary realisticness metrics for evaluating generated load profiles are developed: computing statistics based on domain knowledge and comparing high-level features via a deep-learning classifier. Third, to tackle data scarcity, a novel iterative data augmentation mechanism is developed to generate training samples for enhancing the training of both the classifier and the MultiLoad-GAN model. Simulation results show that MultiLoad- GAN can generate more realistic load profiles than existing approaches, especially in group level characteristics. With little finetuning, MultiLoad-GAN can be readily extended to generate a group of load or PV profiles for a feeder or a service area.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Transition Path Analysis Yields a Statistical Understanding of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events in an Idealized Model

Abstract Atmospheric regime transitions are highly impactful as drivers of extreme weather events, but pose two formidable modeling challenges: predicting the next event (weather forecasting) and characterizing the statistics of events of a given severity (the risk climatology). Each event has a different duration and spatial structure, making it hard to define an objective “average event.” We argue here that transition path theory (TPT), a stochastic process framework, is an appropriate tool for the task. We demonstrate TPT’s capacities on a wave–mean flow model of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) developed by Holton and Mass, which is idealized enough for transparent TPT analysis but complex enough to demonstrate computational scalability. Whereas a recent article (Finkel et al. 2021) studied near-term SSW predictability, the present article uses TPT to link predictability to long-term SSW frequency. This requires not only forecasting forward in time from an initial condition, but also backward in time to assess the probability of the initial conditions themselves. TPT enables one to condition the dynamics on the regime transition occurring, and thus visualize its physical drivers with a vector field called the reactive current . The reactive current shows that before an SSW, dissipation and stochastic forcing drive a slow decay of vortex strength at lower altitudes. The response of upper-level winds is late and sudden, occurring only after the transition is almost complete from a probabilistic point of view. This case study demonstrates that TPT quantities, visualized in a space of physically meaningful variables, can help one understand the dynamics of regime transitions.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Examining the changes in the spatial manifestation and the rate of arrival of large tornado outbreaks

This study presents an assessment of the spatial and temporal characteristics of large tornado outbreak (LTOs) days, in which several counties were impacted by tornadoes rated F2(EF2) or greater on the Fujita (Enhanced Fujita) scale in one day. A statistical evaluation of changes in the LTO clusters for two periods, 1950–1980 and 1989–2019, has been performed. There is a geographical shift of the nucleus (central impact location) towards the southeast United States. This spatial shift is also accompanied by reduced spatial variance, suggesting LTOs have become less dispersed (or more localized) in the recent period. The overall inter-arrival rate of LTOs, and how it changed during successive 31-year climatological blocks between 1950–2019 was investigated using an exponential probability model. The arrival rate has changed from 124 days during 1950–1980 to 164 days during 1977–2007 and remained relatively constant during later periods, indicating that LTOs are becoming less frequent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Linear systematics mitigation in galaxy clustering in the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Data

ABSTRACT We implement a linear model for mitigating the effect of observing conditions and other sources of contamination in galaxy clustering analyses. Our treatment improves upon the fiducial systematics treatment of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 (Y1) cosmology analysis in four crucial ways. Specifically, our treatment (1) does not require decisions as to which observable systematics are significant and which are not, allowing for the possibility of multiple maps adding coherently to give rise to significant bias even if no single map leads to a significant bias by itself, (2) characterizes both the statistical and systematic uncertainty in our mitigation procedure, allowing us to propagate said uncertainties into the reported cosmological constraints, (3) explicitly exploits the full spatial structure of the galaxy density field to differentiate between cosmology-sourced and systematics-sourced fluctuations within the galaxy density field, and (4) is fully automated, and can therefore be trivially applied to any data set. The updated correlation function for the DES Y1 redMaGiC catalogue minimally impacts the cosmological posteriors from that analysis. Encouragingly, our analysis does improve the goodness-of-fit statistic of the DES Y1 3 × 2pt data set (Δχ2 = −6.5 with no additional parameters). This improvement is due in nearly equal parts to both the change in the correlation function and the added statistical and systematic uncertainties associated with our method. We expect the difference in mitigation techniques to become more important in future work as the size of cosmological data sets grows.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatial orientation of the fission fragment intrinsic spins and their correlations

New experimental and theoretical results obtained in 2021 made it acutely clear that more than 80 years after the discovery of nuclear fission we do not understand the generation and dynamics of fission fragment (FF) intrinsic spins well, in particular their magnitudes, their spatial orientation, and their correlations. The magnitude and orientation of the primary FFs have a crucial role in defining the angular distribution and correlation between the emitted prompt neutrons, and subsequent emission of statistical (predominantly $E1$) and stretched $E2$ $γ$ rays, and their correlations with the final fission fragments. Here, we present detailed microscopic evaluations of the FF intrinsic spins, for both even- and odd-mass FFs, and of their spatial correlations. In conclusion, these point to a well-defined three-dimensional FF intrinsic spin dynamics, characteristics absent in semiphenomenological studies, due to the presence of the twisting spin modes, which artificially were suppressed in semiphenomenological studies.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Direct numerical simulations of three-component Rayleigh–Taylor mixing and an improved model for multicomponent reacting mixtures

We present direct numerical simulations of a three-layer Rayleigh–Taylor instability (RTI) problem with a configuration based on the experiments of Suchandra & Ranjan ( J. Fluid Mech. , vol. 974, 2023, A35) and Jacobs & Dalziel ( J. Fluid Mech. , vol. 542, 2005, pp. 251–279). The problem consists of a layer of light fluid between two layers of heavy fluid with an Atwood number of 0.3. These simulations are first validated through comparison with available experimental data. The validated simulations are then utilized to analyse statistics in this three-component flow. First, length scales are examined utilizing spectra and two-point spatial correlations of velocity and species concentration fluctuations. Next, joint probability density functions (p.d.f.s) of species concentration are compared against several model p.d.f.s representing generalizations of the bivariate beta distribution. Notably, the joint p.d.f.s do not appear to be accurately described by a Dirichlet distribution, indicating the marginal distributions do not conform to a beta distribution. Finally, similarity of the present configuration to three-component mixing found in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) applications is exploited to develop and validate an improved model for the impact of multicomponent mixing on thermonuclear (TN) reaction rates. A single time instant from the present simulations is chosen for a TN burn calculation under the hypothetical assumption of ICF materials and temperatures. Total TN output from this second calculation is then compared against the prediction of the improved model. The new model is found to accurately predict TN reaction rates in both premixed and non-premixed configurations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reliable Devices Yield Stable Quantum Computations

Stable quantum computation requires noisy results to remain bounded even in the presence of noise fluctuations. Yet non-stationary noise processes lead to drift in the varying characteristics of a quantum device that can greatly influence the circuit outcomes. Here we address how temporal and spatial variations in noise relate device reliability to quantum computing stability. First, our approach quantifies the differences in statistical distributions of characterization metrics collected at different times and locations using Hellinger distance. We then validate an analytical bound that relates this distance directly to the stability of a computed expectation value. Our demonstration uses numerical simulations with models informed by the washington superconducting transmon device. We find that the stability metric is consistently bounded from above by the corresponding Hellinger distance, which can be cast as a specified tolerance level. These results underscore the significance of reliable quantum computing devices and the impact for stable quantum computation.

Dasgupta, Samudra↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hyperspectral Detection of the Fluorescence Shift between Chirality-Sorted Empty and Water-Filled Single-Wall Carbon Nanotube Enantiomers

Single-wall carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) have extraordinary electronic and optical properties that depend strongly on their exact chiral structure and their interaction with their inner and outer environment. The fluorescence (PL) of semiconducting SWCNTs, for instance, will shift depending on the molecules with which the SWCNT’s hollow core is filled. These interaction-induced shifts are challenging to resolve on the ensemble level in samples containing a mixture of different filling contents due to the relatively large inhomogeneous line width of the ensemble SWCNT PL compared to the size of these shifts. To circumvent this inhomogeneous broadening, single-tube spectroscopy and hyperspectral imaging are often applied, which until now required time-consuming statistical studies. Here, we present hyperspectral PL microscopy combined with automated SWCNT segmenting based on either principal component analysis or a convolutional neural network, capable of both spatially and spectrally resolving the PL along the length of many individual SWCNTs at the same time and automatically fitting peak positions and line widths of individual SWCNTs. The methodology is demonstrated by accurately determining the emission shifts and line widths of thousands of left- and right-handed empty and water-filled SWCNTs coated with a chiral surfactant, resulting in four statistical distributions which cannot be resolved in ensemble spectroscopy of unsorted samples. The results demonstrate a robust method to quickly probe ensemble properties with single-enantiomer spectral resolution. Moreover, it promises to be an absolute quantitative method to characterize the relative abundances of SWCNTs with different handedness or filling content in macroscopic samples, simply by counting individual species.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Mixed Length Scale Model for Migrating Fluvial Bedforms

With the expansion of hydropower, in-stream converters, flood-protection infrastructures, and growing concerns on deltas fragile ecosystems, there is a pressing need to evaluate and monitor bedform sediment mass flux. It is critical to estimate real-time bedform size and migration velocity and provide a theoretical framework to convert easily accessible time histories of bed elevations into spatially evolving patterns. In this study, we collected spatiotemporally resolved bathymetries from laboratory flumes and the Colorado River in statistically steady, homogeneous, subcritical flow conditions. Wave number and frequency spectra of bed elevations show compelling evidence of scale-dependent velocity for the hierarchy of migrating bedforms observed in the laboratory and field. New scaling laws were applied to describe the full range of migration velocities as function of two dimensionless groups based on the bed shear velocity, sediment diameter, and water depth. Further simplification resulted in a mixed length scale model estimating scale-dependent migration velocities, without requiring bedform classification or identification.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Entanglement Hamiltonian of Many-Body Dynamics in Strongly Correlated Systems

A powerful perspective in understanding nonequilibrium quantum dynamics is through the time evolution of its entanglement content. Yet apart from a few guiding principles for the entanglement entropy,to date, much less is known about the refined characteristics of entanglement propagation. In this paper we unveil signatures of the entanglement evolving and information propagating out of equilibrium, from the view of the entanglement Hamiltonian. We investigate quantum quench dynamics of prototypical Bose-Hubbard model using state-of-the-art numerical technique combined with conformal field theory. Before reaching equilibrium, it is found that a current operator emerges in the entanglement Hamiltonian, implying that entanglement spreading is carried by particle flow. In the long-time limit the subsystem enters a steady phase, evidenced by the dynamic convergence of the entanglement Hamiltonian to the expectation of a thermal ensemble. Importantly, the entanglement temperature in steady state is spatially independent,which provides an intuitive trait of equilibrium. These findings not only provide crucial information on how equilibrium statistical mechanics emerges in many-body dynamics, but also add a tool to exploring quantum dynamics from the perspective of the entanglement Hamiltonian.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using spatio-temporal graph neural networks to estimate fleet-wide photovoltaic performance degradation patterns

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) system performance is crucial for determining its feasibility as a power generation technology and financial asset. PV-based energy solutions offer a viable alternative to traditional energy resources due to their superior Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). A significant challenge in assessing the LCOE of PV systems lies in understanding the Performance Loss Rate (PLR) for large fleets of PV systems. Estimating the PLR of PV systems becomes increasingly important in the rapidly growing PV industry. Precise PLR estimation benefits PV users by providing real-time monitoring of PV module performance, while explainable PLR estimation assists PV manufacturers in studying and enhancing the performance of their products. However, traditional PLR estimation methods based on statistical models have notable drawbacks. Firstly, they require user knowledge and decision-making. Secondly, they fail to leverage spatial coherence for fleet-level analysis. Additionally, these methods inherently assume the linearity of degradation, which is not representative of real world degradation. To overcome these challenges, we propose a novel graph deep learning-based decomposition method called the Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Network for fleet-level PLR estimation (PV-stGNN-PLR). PV-stGNN-PLR decomposes the power timeseries data into aging and fluctuation components, utilizing the aging component to estimate PLR. PV-stGNN-PLR exploits spatial and temporal coherence to derive PLR estimation for all systems in a fleet and imposes flatness and smoothness regularization in loss function to ensure the successful disentanglement between aging and fluctuation. We have evaluated PV-stGNN-PLR on three simulated PV datasets consisting of 100 inverters from 5 sites. Experimental results show that PV-stGNN-PLR obtains a reduction of 33.9% and 35.1% on average in Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) and Euclidean Distance (ED) in PLR degradation pattern estimation compared to the state-of-the-art PLR estimation methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Statistical uncertainty of fission matrix eigenvalues using perturbation theory

Eigenvalue search of high dominance ratio systems may be slow to converge. The fission matrix element is defined by its element (FM){sub ij}, which are the probability for a neutron born in cell i to create a fission in cell j for a spatial mesh of n{sub i}*n{sub j} elements. Fission matrices are used in Monte Carlo criticality simulations to enhance computing speed, but also to find higher order eigenvalues. However, few studies have been made on the link between statistical uncertainties of fission matrix elements and eigenvalues uncertainties. Thus, dominance ratio statistical uncertainties remain unknown. This paper uses a new generalized perturbation theory (GPT) method to estimate sensitivities of eigenvalues to fission matrix elements and then to calculate dominance ratio uncertainties.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Techniques for improved statistical convergence in quantification of eddy diffusivity moments

While recent approaches, such as the macroscopic forcing method (MFM) or Green's function-based approaches, can be used to compute Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes closure operators using forced direct numerical simulations, MFM can also be used to directly compute moments of the effective nonlocal and anisotropic eddy diffusivities. The low-order spatial and temporal moments contain limited information about the eddy diffusivity but are often sufficient for quantification and modeling of nonlocal and anisotropic effects. However, when using MFM to compute eddy diffusivity moments, the statistical convergence can be slow for higher-order moments. In this work, we demonstrate that using the same direct numerical simulation (DNS) for all forced MFM simulations improves statistical convergence of the eddy diffusivity moments. We present its implementation in conjunction with a decomposition method that handles the MFM forcing semianalytically and allows for consistent boundary condition treatment, which we develop for both scalar and momentum transport. We demonstrate that for a two-dimensional Rayleigh-Taylor instability case study, using the same DNS for all forced MFM simulations results in convergence with 𝒪⁡(100) simulations rather than 𝒪⁡(1000) simulations. In conclusion, we then demonstrate the impacts of improved convergence on the quantification of the eddy diffusivity.

general physics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sea Ice Rheology Experiment (SIREx): 2. Evaluating Linear Kinematic Features in High-Resolution Sea Ice Simulations

Simulating sea ice drift and deformation in the Arctic Ocean is still a challenge because of the multiscale interaction of sea ice floes that compose the Arctic Sea ice cover. The Sea Ice Rheology Experiment (SIREx) is a model intercomparison project of the Forum of Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS). In SIREx, skill metrics are designed to evaluate different recently suggested approaches for modeling linear kinematic features (LKFs) to provide guidance for modeling small-scale deformation. These LKFs are narrow bands of localized deformation that can be observed in satellite images and also form in high resolution sea ice simulations. In this contribution, spatial and temporal properties of LKFs are assessed in 36 simulations of state-of-the-art sea ice models and compared to deformation features derived from the RADARSAT Geophysical Processor System. All simulations produce LKFs, but only very few models realistically simulate at least some statistics of LKF properties such as densities, lengths, or growth rates. All SIREx models overestimate the angle of fracture between conjugate pairs of LKFs and LKF lifetimes pointing to inaccurate model physics. The temporal and spatial resolution of a simulation and the spatial resolution of atmospheric boundary condition affect simulated LKFs as much as the model's sea ice rheology and numerics. Only in very high resolution simulations (≤2 km) the concentration and thickness anomalies along LKFs are large enough to affect air-ice-ocean interaction processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Finding wombling boundaries in LHC data with Voronoi and Delaunay tessellations

We address the problem of finding a wombling boundary in point data generated by a general Poisson point process, a specific example of which is an LHC event sample distributed in the phase space of a final state signature, with the wombling boundary created by some new physics. We discuss the use of Voronoi and Delaunay tessellations of the point data for estimating the local gradients and investigate methods for sharpening the boundaries by reducing the statistical noise. The outcome from traditional wombling algorithms is a set of boundary cell candidates with relatively large gradients, whose spatial properties must then be scrutinized in order to construct the boundary and evaluate its significance. Here we propose an alternative approach where we simultaneously form and evaluate the significance of all possible boundaries in terms of the total gradient flux. We illustrate our method with several toy examples of both straight and curved boundaries with varying amounts of signal present in the data.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Conditional analysis of temperature and strain rate effects on dissipation structure in turbulent non-premixed jet flames

Here, this work presents results from simultaneous high-resolution temperature and velocity measurements in a series of turbulent non-premixed jet flames. The filtered Rayleigh scattering (FRS)-based temperature measurements demonstrate sufficient signal-to-noise (SNR) and spatial resolution to estimate the smallest scalar length scales and accurately determine dissipation rate fields. A comprehensive set of conditional statistics are used to characterize the small-scale structure, including the dependence of dissipation layer widths on Reynolds number, temperature, and dissipation magnitude. In general, the dissipation layer thickness decrease with increasing Reynolds number and increase with increasing temperature. However, dissipation layer widths show two distinct behaviors with respect to dissipation magnitude. For small dissipation values, increases in magnitude results in broadening of the dissipation layer, while for larger magnitude values of dissipation, the layer widths are thinned, highlighting the complexity of small-scale turbulent mixing. Additionally, measured ratios of the dissipation layer width to the Batchelor length scale are consistent across all Reynolds numbers and agree with previous studies in non-reacting flows. The unique aspect about the current set of measurements is the ability to examine the interaction of dissipation structure with turbulent flow parameters for the first time in turbulent non-premixed flames. Particularly, the strain rate/dissipation relationship is examined and compared to previous studies in non-reacting flows. It is found that the dissipation layers tend to align normal to the principal compressive strain axis and this tendency increases with increasing Reynolds number. For the lowest Reynolds number case, no dependence of the dissipation layer width nor dissipation rate magnitude on strain rate is found. However, for higher Reynolds numbers, a strong dependence of the dissipation layer width and dissipation rate magnitude on the principal compressive strain rate is observed. These results indicate the direct role of the compressive strain rate field on small-scale mixing structure in reacting flows.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Precursory Locking Precedes Slip Events on Laboratory Fault

Earthquakes occur through repeated cycles of locking and slip. What is the relationship between transiently locked patches and the size, location, and timing of the subsequent slip events? Here we use an experimental fault made of transparent rubber to image the slip history of over 18,000 events. The soft elastic system allows for contained ruptures and thus a natural evolution of stress heterogeneity over multiple earthquake cycles. We observe a precursory locking phase preceding slip nucleation for events of all sizes. The integrated locking distance increases linearly with the moment of the eventual event. The most intense (largest slip deficit) locking events are spatially and temporally correlated with the hypocenters of the largest rupture events. These results show that the transient locking is statistically, but not deterministically, predictive of the location, timing, and size of the eventual slip event.

earthquakes↗