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DOE OSTI2026

Rapid Coal-Ash Characterization using Geophysical Methods & Machine Learning

Coal combustion products (CCP) are challenging to delineate in heterogeneous field settings. Conventional methods (test pits, coring, and laboratory analyses) are labor-intensive, slow, invasive, and provide sparse spatial coverage. This study evaluates whether rapid non-invasive geophysical screening methods—induced polarization (IP), magnetic susceptibility, and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) —combined with surface colorimetry (RGB_24), can discriminate CCP-soil mixtures and provide reliable estimates of CCP content. Laboratory measurements were collected on five CCP-soil mixtures (series) and modeled using (i) a linear baseline, (ii) a calibrated non-linear (power-mean) model, and (iii) a machine-learning (ML) Random Forest approach, with validation via leave-one-series-out and site-specific tests. Across the five series, individual signals—particularly IP and magnetic susceptibility—were strongly predictive of ash content but were consistently outperformed by combined models. The pooled calibrated non-linear and ML models captured the observed non-linearity and achieved high accuracy and precision, improving on linear fits. Colorimetry showed the weakest direct relationship with ash content for the tested samples but improved performance when included in multi-signal models. At pre-selected 3.5% decision threshold, calibrated and ML approaches yielded near-perfect classification (Matthews correlation coefficient ˜ 1), suggesting strong practical operability for field screening. Additionally, field-analog tests highlighted the role of endmembers—accuracy declined without access to end-member measurements but was largely recovered by collecting a minimal labeled pair for local recalibration. With end members, accuracy remained high. Globally trained models performed well on three operational unknowns; however, series-specific refits provided the most accurate predictions. Overall, these results highlight the potential of combining rapid geophysics and minimal local calibration for improved coal-ash delineation.

Peshtani, Klaudio↗

DOE OSTI2023

Validation of the Cloud_CCI (Cloud Climate Change Initiative) cloud products in the Arctic

The role of clouds in the Arctic radiation budget is not well understood. Ground-based and airborne measurements provide valuable data to test and improve our understanding. However, the ground-based measurements are intrinsically sparse, and the airborne observations are snapshots in time and space. Passive remote sensing measurements from satellite sensors offer high spatial coverage and an evolving time series, having lengths potentially of decades. However, detecting clouds by passive satellite remote sensing sensors is challenging over the Arctic because of the brightness of snow and ice in the ultraviolet and visible spectral regions and because of the small brightness temperature contrast to the surface. Consequently, the quality of the resulting cloud data products needs to be assessed quantitatively. In this study, we validate the cloud data products retrieved from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) post meridiem (PM) data from the polar-orbiting NOAA-19 satellite and compare them with those derived from the ground-based instruments during the sunlit months. The AVHRR cloud data products by the European Space Agency (ESA) Cloud Climate Change Initiative (Cloud_CCI) project uses the observations in the visible and IR bands to determine cloud properties. The ground-based measurements from four high-latitude sites have been selected for this investigation: Hyytiälä (61.84°N, 24.29°E), North Slope of Alaska (NSA; 71.32°N, 156.61°W), Ny-Ålesund (Ny-Å; 78.92°N, 11.93°E), and Summit (72.59°N, 38.42°W). The liquid water path (LWP) ground-based data are retrieved from microwave radiometers, while the cloud top height (CTH) has been determined from the integrated lidar–radar measurements. The quality of the satellite products, cloud mask and cloud optical depth (COD), has been assessed using data from NSA, whereas LWP and CTH have been investigated over Hyytiälä, NSA, Ny-Å, and Summit.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Estimating Sparse Direct Effects in Multivariate Regression With the Spike-and-Slab LASSO

The multivariate regression interpretation of the Gaussian chain graph model simultaneously parametrizes (i) the direct effects of p predictors on q outcomes and (ii) the residual partial covariances between pairs of outcomes. We introduce a new method for fitting sparse versions of these models with spike-and-slab LASSO (SSL) priors. We develop an Expectation Conditional Maximization algorithm to obtain sparse estimates of the p × q matrix of direct effects and the q × q residual precision matrix. Our algorithm iteratively solves a sequence of penalized maximum likelihood problems with self-adaptive penalties that gradually filter out negligible regression coefficients and partial covariances. Because it adaptively penalizes individual model parameters, our method is seen to outperform fixed-penalty competitors on simulated data. We establish the posterior contraction rate for our model, buttressing our method’s excellent empirical performance with strong theoretical guarantees. Using our method, we estimated the direct effects of diet and residence type on the composition of the gut microbiome of elderly adults.

EM algorithm↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Investigating Low-Altitude Constellations of Ad-Hoc Lunar PNT System for Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy

In this study, we examine a low-altitude Lunar Position, Navigation, and Timing (LPNT) constellations and the localization performance of Centralized Extended Kalman Filter (CEKF) and Decentralized Extended Kalman Filter (DEKF) algorithms. The primary investigation involves a 100-node swarm operating at a 100 km altitude, in contrast to previous studies that examined a 21-node asset in a frozen-orbit at 5,500 km. The autonomous operation of large-scale swarm is based on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve pseudoranges and relative velocities among swarm nodes. We perform a numerical assessment of the two filtering approaches, utilizing ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets as well as ‘two ISL’ measurements where each spacecraft is restricted to only two antennas. This research includes an analysis of CEKF under 2-ISL constraints and evaluates the performance of DEKF in a 100-node swarm, which has not been explored in previous studies. In addition, we examine the impact of increasing the sampling frequency for DEKF, showing that the update cycle can be shortened from a 10-minute interval. A novel approach for ‘2-ISL limited’ DEKF will also be introduced, using a matching formulation that exhaustively enumerates all potential matches. This study provides valuable insights into large-scale distributed swarm operations, considering various filter configurations, sampling frequencies, matching strategies, and scalability of CEKF and DEKF for low-altitude LPNT applications. The Lunar PNT technology plays a key role in providing reliable and robust navigation services on the Moon's surface and the South pole, where the primary Lunar missions are planned. To support upcoming Lunar missions, including small satellites from NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services program, the Lunar PNT system must be adaptable to smaller platforms like CubeSats. Driven by the growing involvement of public and private exploration partnerships, the traditional low Earth orbit missions are shifting to beyond geosynchronous orbit [1]. These upcoming missions aim to foster a sustainable and innovative exploration program, in collaboration with commercial and international partners, to facilitate human expansion throughout the solar system and return new knowledge and opportunities to Earth [2]. As part of this trend, there are increasing efforts to utilize science missions in Lunar orbit to develop a non-dedicated and ad-hoc PNT network system. Two traditional approaches, the Deep Space Network (DSN) and the weak signal Global Positioning System (GPS), are established deep-space navigation technologies for missions beyond the geosynchronous orbit. Beginning in 1958, the DSN was developed to communicate with the Explorer 1 spacecraft based on the use of radiometric tracking in spacecraft navigation [3]. The DSN is capable of providing nearly unfettered coverage to spacecraft beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO), however, increased space mission volume has created concerns about future expectations of DSN usage for spacecraft navigation [4]. For cislunar mission applications, the position accuracy using DSN achieves 100 m (3σ) with at least three geometrically diverse ground stations when using radiometric tracking alone [5]. The DSN's dependence on Earth-based ground stations restricts its operational capabilities to periods of Earth visibility. This limitation, coupled with its poor localization performance, renders the DSN unsuitable for future lunar missions that demand continuous tracking and precise positioning. To satisfy the increasing requirements of DSN in Lunar applications, spacecrafts are also required to improve their onboard antenna power and efficiency of the transmission. However, there is an important aggregate cost trade between adding capabilities to every spacecraft and adding to a capacity on the ground that serves multiple spacecraft [6]. A weak GPS system can provide PNT service while the user spacecraft is bound to the Moon, leveraging a single, steerable high gain antenna with the relatively narrow beam which includes all the sources in its field of view [7]. However, the higher the altitude the receiver is above the GPS constellations, the poorer and the weaker are the relative geometry and the received signal powers, respectively, leading to a significant navigation accuracy reduction [8]. The transmitted power becomes weaker with increasing distance from the Earth as well as signals tracked from one of the side lobes of the GPS antenna pattern. As a results, the number of visible satellites and relative geometric condition of the GPS satellites at very high altitude drops dramatically and reduces the navigation solution accuracy. Therefore, the weak GPS system is also not an ideal way to provide PNT service to upcoming Lunar missions when considering its limited geometric condition and the recued navigation accuracy. Another navigation approach on the Moon is being developed, similar to the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) on Earth, aiming to offer navigation service with continuous 24/7 coverage across the entire Lunar surface. For example, lunar communications relay and navigation systems (LCRNS) by NASA and Lunar navigation satellite systems (LNSS) by JAXA are designed to serve as dedicated Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) systems for the Moon. However, designing a dedicated LNSS and PNT service involves additional challenges, which are unique to the lunar environment, including limited payload capacity for the CubeSat platform, i.e., the size, weight, and power (SWaP) of the onboard clock, limited lunar ground monitoring stations, and limited financial investment as compared to the legacy Earth-GPS [9]. NASA’s focus on utilizing CubeSat platforms on the Moon leads to an alternative Lunar navigation platform that leverages the existing Lunar science and exploration assets. The small satellites used in Lunar missions can be used to create a low-cost, autonomous, ad-hoc, and on-demand mission-centric Lunar PNT swarm capable of providing PNT services to these low-cost lunar missions [10]. As upcoming Lunar missions will often operate at low-altitude about 30 km to 100 km for scientific observations and mapping purposes, the low-altitude orbital constellations could be employed to create an ad-hoc Lunar PNT system. However, several issues must be addressed, such as the instability of these orbits, which often require maintenance or are only suitable for short-duration missions, operating for fewer than 90 days. Additionally, at an altitude of 100 km, the satellites have a limited period during which they are above the horizon and capable of providing PNT service to users. The implementation of a non-dedicated, ad-hoc Lunar navigation constellation facilitates on-demand PNT services. A preliminary study of ad-hoc Lunar PNT system was conducted using 21 spacecraft in 5,5000 km altitude frozen orbits to test its feasibility and a basic performance of orbital asset localization among ad-hoc Lunar constellations in small satellites format [10]. These swarm assets are designed for autonomous localization with minimal Earth interaction, reducing dependency on bandwidth and ground resources. The design in [10] demonstrated the feasibility of a decentralized PNT approach, specifically employing a DEKF approach for state estimation, which helps minimize onboard operating costs. The DEKF method distributes computation across individual satellites, which lightens the computational load while maintaining accuracy in orbit ephemeris and clock offsets, similar to centralized systems [11]. In a follow-on study [12], each spacecraft was limited to 2 communications antennae, forcing the selection of measurements and scheduling spacecraft activities to perform the measurements. A matching algorithm is implemented to select the best measurements and schedule position estimation updates. The decentralized localization performance is also investigated with increasing levels of network degradation for swarm assets considering the impact of intermittent and permanent communication failure, to demonstrate the robustness and fidelity of the decentralized Lunar PNT service [13]. This study confirmed that the ad-hoc PNT constellations in frozen orbit are highly robust and resilient to communication failures. However, unlike frozen orbit swarm assets, the low-altitude satellites have a limited ground view at an altitude of 100 km, where the ad-hoc Lunar constellation consists of 98 low-altitude satellites, evenly distributed across seven circular polar orbital planes, alongside two satellites in a frozen orbit at an altitude of 5,500 km (Figure 1). Therefore, the number of satellites visible to ground users is significantly limited in low-altitude orbit constellations. As each visibility of a spacecraft remains intact for only a few ticks before it moves out of the field of view, the ground user encounters challenges in maintaining continuous navigation service, resulting in sparse availability and provision of Lunar PNT system. Consequently, service availability is primarily restricted to the Lunar South Pole region (Figure 2). Given these limitations and concerns, the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets will be assessed in this study. We focus on the investigation of the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets and ground users near the Lunar South Pole. The overall flow of the Lunar PNT simulation incorporates the DEKF approach of asset localization and the weighted least-squares approach in user localization (Figure 3). The autonomous Lunar PNT simulation is primarily implemented in MATLAB, where the DEKF based on the matching scheduler is implemented with Google’s OR-tools as a model builder and Gurobi optimization tool as a backend solver. The General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) is utilized to generate ephemeris data for swarm assets, and accounts for satellite orbital details, mass, and perturbations like solar radiation pressure and drag coefficients. Each ephemeris dataset is produced in the Moon International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF) inertial coordinate system. For state estimation, the distributed swarm assets rely on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve tracking pseudoranges and relative velocities between visible satellites and anchor nodes during each observation. Numerical evaluations of the decentralized localization process are conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the low-altitude PNT system in providing reliable navigation services. The main approach involves using DEKF and CEKF to localize 100 satellites in low-altitude constellations, where the CEKF is implemented to serve as a baseline for comparing the performance of distributed algorithms. In both cases, we evaluate ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets, and ‘two ISL’ measurements when spacecraft are constrained to have only two antennas. We test four estimation techniques: CEKF fully sampled, CEKF two ISL, DEKF fully sampled, and DEKF two ISL filters. As the DEKF update cycle is comprised of network setup, communication, and computations, a global broadcast network and 2-way ISL network setup will take from 4 to 6 minutes as maximum [12]. In this simulation, the DEKF update cycle is set to 10 minutes, including a 4-minute latency for obtaining and computing the actual measurement updates. We experiment an increased update cycle to demonstrate the feasibility and evaluate the impact on localization performance using various tuning values for measurement noise covariances (Figures 4 and 5). By comparing centralized and decentralized approaches using a matching algorithm, we analyze the influence of cross-correlation factors in the covariance matrix, assuming 100% reliability of all assets and measurements. The increased frequency and the adjustments of tuning parameters reveal distinct error patterns between the two scenarios. The localization accuracy of the swarm assets and ground users is assessed by taking the median error across 100 assets and one ground user (84.9°S, 137.5°E) over 7-day simulation period (Table 1). Since the user localization accuracy is significantly affected by the performance of the swarm assets, it is crucial to maintain high localization accuracy within the swarm. This study will continue to explore decentralized filtering for autonomous LPNT operations, with further investigation of an 'iterative' matching approach which enumerates every valid matching pair, planned for the following month.

Yeji Kim↗

NASA NTRS2015

Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) for the International Space Station (ISS): Mission Description and Science Goals

In recent years, the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and their partners have developed and demonstrated space-based lightning observations as an effective remote sensing tool for Earth science research and applications. The Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) continues to acquire global observations of total (i.e., intracloud and cloud-to-ground) lightning after 17 years on-orbit. However, TRMM is now low on fuel, so this mission will soon be completed. As a follow on to this mission, a space-qualified LIS built as the flight spare for TRMM has been selected for flight as a science mission on the International Space Station (ISS). The ISS LIS will be flown as a hosted payload on the Department of Defense Space Test Program (STP) H5 mission, which has a January 2016 baseline launch date aboard a SpaceX launch vehicle for a 2-4 year or longer mission. The LIS measures the amount, rate, and radiant energy of total lightning over the Earth. More specifically, it measures lightning during both day and night, with storm scale resolution (approx. 4 km), millisecond timing, and high, uniform detection efficiency, without any land-ocean bias. Lightning is a direct and most impressive response to intense atmospheric convection. It has been found that lightning measured by LIS can be quantitatively related to thunderstorm and other geophysical processes. Therefore, the ISS LIS lightning observations will continue to provide important gap-filling inputs to pressing Earth system science issues across a broad range of disciplines, including weather, climate, atmospheric chemistry, and lightning physics. A unique contribution from the ISS platform will be the availability of real-time lightning data, especially valuable for operational applications over data sparse regions such as the oceans. The ISS platform will also uniquely enable LIS to provide simultaneous and complementary observations with other ISS payloads such as the European Space Agency's Atmosphere-Space Interaction Monitor (ASIM) that will be exploring the connection between thunderstorms and lightning with terrestrial gamma-ray flashes (TGFs) and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency's Global LIghtning and Sprites MeasurementS (GLIMS) with its focus on global lightning and sprite connections. Another important function of the ISS LIS will be to provide cross-sensor calibration/validation with a number of other payloads, including the TRMM LIS and the next generation geostationary lightning mappers such as the GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) and Meteosat Third Generation Lightning Imager (MTG LI), as well as with ground-based lightning detection systems. These inter-calibrations will improve the long term climate monitoring record provided by all these systems. Finally, the ISS LIS will extend the time-series climate record of LIS lightning observations and expand the latitudinal coverage of LIS lightning to the climate significant upper middle-latitudes.

Blakeslee, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) for the International Space Station (ISS): Mission Description and Science Goals

In recent years, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and their partners have developed and demonstrated space-based lightning observations as an effective remote sensing tool for Earth science research and applications. The Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) continues to provide global observations of total lightning after 17 years on-orbit. In April 2013, a space-qualified LIS built as the flight spare for TRMM, was selected for flight as a science mission on the International Space Station. The ISS LIS (or I-LIS as Hugh Christian prefers) will be flown as a hosted payload on the Department of Defense Space Test Program (STP) H5 mission, which has a January 2016 baseline launch date aboard a SpaceX launch vehicle for a 2-4 year or longer mission. The LIS measures the amount, rate, and radiant energy of global lightning. More specifically, it measures lightning during both day and night, with storm scale resolution, millisecond timing, and high, uniform detection efficiency, without any land-ocean bias. Lightning is a direct and most impressive response to intense atmospheric convection. It has been found that the characteristics of lightning that LIS measures can be quantitatively coupled to both thunderstorm and other geophysical processes. Therefore, the ISS LIS lightning observations will provide important gap-filling inputs to pressing Earth system science issues across a broad range of disciplines, including weather, climate, atmospheric chemistry, and lightning physics. A unique contribution from the ISS platform will be the availability of real-time lightning, especially valuable for operational applications over data sparse regions such as the oceans. The ISS platform will also uniquely enable LIS to provide simultaneous and complementary observations with other payloads such as the European Space Agency's Atmosphere-Space Interaction Monitor (ASIM) that will be exploring the connection between thunderstorms and lightning with terrestrial gamma-ray flashes (TGFs). Another important function of the ISS LIS will be to provide cross-sensor calibration/validation with a number of other payloads, including the TRMM LIS and the next generation geostationary lightning mappers (e.g., GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper and Meteosat Third Generation Lightning Imager). This inter-calibration will improve the long term climate monitoring provided by all these systems. Finally, the ISS LIS will extend the time-series climate record of LIS lightning observations and expand the latitudinal coverage of LIS lightning to the climate significant upper middle-latitudes.

Blakeslee, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) for the International Space Station (ISS): Mission Description and Science Goals

Blakeslee, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Validation of the Pulmonary Function System for Use on the International Space Station

Aerobic deconditioning occurs during long duration space flight despite the use of exercise countermeasures (Convertino, 1996). As a part of International Space Station (ISS) medical operations, periodic tests designed to estimate aerobic capacity are performed to track changes in aerobic fitness and to determine the effectiveness of exercise countermeasures. These tests are performed prior to, during, and after missions of greater than 30 days in duration. Crewmembers selected for missions aboard the ISS perform a graded exercise test on a cycle ergometer approximately 270 days prior to their scheduled launch date in order to measure peak oxygen consumption (VO2PK) and peak heart rate (HRpk). Approximately 30 to 45 days prior to launch, crewmembers perform a submaximal cycle ergometer test at work rates set to elicit 25, 50 and 75% of their pre-flight VO2PK. This test, known as the Periodic Fitness Evaluation (PFE), serves as a baseline measure to which subsequent in-and post-flight exercise tests are compared. While onboard the ISS, crewmembers are normally scheduled to perform the PFE beginning with flight day (FD) 14 and every 30 days thereafter. The PFE is also conducted 5 and 30 days following flight. Using PFE data, aerobic fitness is estimated by quantifying the VO2 vs. HR relationship using linear regression and calculating the VO2 that would occur at the crewmember s previously measured HRpk. Currently, for data collected during flight, this technique assumes that the pre- vs. in-flight oxygen consumption per given cycle workload is similar. However, the validity of this assumption is based upon a sparse amount of data collected during the Skylab era (Michel, et al. 1977). The method of using heart rate and cycle ergometer work rates has been used to estimate aerobic fitness in normal gravity (Astrand and Ryhming, 1954; Lee, 1993). Due to spaceflight induced physiological alterations, such as shifts in extracellular fluid (e.g. plasma) volume, this method may not be valid during space flight. In addition, the ergometer onboard ISS is vibration-isolated and moves with the astronaut s application of force into the pedals. The effect of this movement on the VO2 of cycle exercise on ISS has not been quantified.

McCleary, Frank A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Krylov subspace recycling for evolving structures

Krylov subspace recycling is a powerful tool when solving a long series of large, sparse linear systems that change only slowly over time. In PDE constrained shape optimization, these series appear naturally, as typically hundreds or thousands of optimization steps are needed with only small changes in the geometry. In this setting, however, applying Krylov subspace recycling can be a difficult task. As the geometry evolves, in general, so does the finite element mesh defined on or representing this geometry, including the numbers of nodes and elements and element connectivity. This is especially the case if re-meshing techniques are used. As a result, the number of algebraic degrees of freedom in the system changes, and in general the linear system matrices resulting from the finite element discretization change size from one optimization step to the next. Changes in the mesh connectivity also lead to structural changes in the matrices. In the case of re-meshing, even if the geometry changes only a little, the corresponding mesh might differ substantially from the previous one. Obviously, this prevents any straightforward mapping of the approximate invariant subspace of the linear system matrix (the focus of recycling in this work) from one optimization step to the next; similar problems arise for other selected subspaces. In this paper, we present an algorithm to map an approximate invariant subspace of the linear system matrix for the previous optimization step to an approximate invariant subspace of the linear system matrix for the current optimization step, for general meshes. This is achieved by exploiting the map from coefficient vectors to finite element functions on the mesh, combined with interpolation or approximation of functions on the finite element mesh. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach numerically with several proof of concept studies for a specific meshing technique.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hydrologic applicability of satellite-based precipitation estimates for irrigation water management in the data-scarce region

Reliable precipitation estimates are crucial for planning and managing water resources, monitoring hydrologic extremes, and fulfilling irrigation water requirements. Accurate precipitation estimates are particularly challenging in complex mountain terrains, where monitoring gauges are often sparsely distributed due to their remote locations, and high installation and long-term operation costs. Recent advances in satellite-based precipitation estimates offer promising opportunities to improve our understanding of hydrologic processes and their applications for irrigation water management. Several datasets are available varying considerably in terms of their data sources, quality control methods, estimation procedure, and spatiotemporal resolutions. Choosing the most suitable dataset for a particular application is a complex task. In this study, we (1) evaluate the performance of six satellite-based precipitation estimates (SPEs): i) CHIRPS v2.0, ii) CMORPH v1.0, iii) ERA5, iv) IMERG v6, v) MSWEP v2.8, and vi) PERSIANN-CDR against the gauge precipitation using continuous statistical and categorical indices, (2) integrate SPEs with a calibrated semi-distributed hydrologic model to predict streamflow, and (3) demonstrate practical implications of improved streamflow prediction for irrigation water management in the central Himalayan region, Nepal. Our results illustrate that satellite-based precipitation estimates have competitive performance in capturing a wide range of rainfall characteristics, with demonstrated variability across river basins and time scales. Further, there are no significant discrepancies observed in satellite-based precipitation estimates for estimating irrigation water requirements for the three major crops (maize, wheat, and paddy) during the cropping period across the selected river basins, showing a greater promise for irrigation water management planning and decision making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Identification and Study of Validation Level Test Cases for Computational Modeling of Non-Charring Ablators

Computational modeling of Thermal Protection System (TPS) materials, used for aerospace applications, provides numerous advantages in preliminary selection and design of a heatshield material and shape for atmospheric entry vehicles. However, to serve as a reliable tool for prediction of material thermal and ablative behavior, the modeling approach needs to be validated against real experimental and flight data, preferably at a range of applied conditions. The validation study is typically very complex as it requires reliable measured data not only for the material thermal response and surface recession, but also well characterized environmental conditions. The validation problem becomes even more complex when the material thermal response is dictated by multi-physics effects such as solid conduction, in-depth thermal decomposition, pyrolysis gas flow and chemical reactions. The multi-physics effects complicate not only the modeling effort, but also the experimental measurement for validation of various aspects of the highly coupled problem. In this study, an attempt is made to identify suitable experimental data that could serve as a source for validation of material thermal response modeling tools. To reduce the computational complexity, this study focuses only on non-charring ablators, where the material thermal response could be modeled with a single governing equation for solid conduction and the ablation is limited only to the surface of the material. With a well characterized and publicly available experimental data being sparse, the study is limited in presenting test cases for only three materials: camphor, graphite and FiberForm® in the sequence of increased modeling complexity. Graphite is a commonly used TPS material for aerospace applications, both for leading edges of high-speed vehicles and internal insulation of solid rocket motors. FiberForm® is a porous carbon pre-form used in preparation of the well known PICA material Tran et al. [1996]. Inclusion of camphor into the list is conditioned with the relative simplicity in modeling the material thermal and chemical response and the low-enthalpy flow environment. In addition, camphor has been used as a simple test material for study of flow transition behavior by Stock and Ginoux [1973] and assessment of a heatshield shape change at flight relevant conditions by Rotondi et al. [2022]. In this work, the identified experimental data was extracted from the public literature and test cases that yet have been published. As it was found from the review, not a single test case contains an exhaustive set of data that would validate every aspect of the material physics. However, in the data collected, various aspects of the material behavior can be still validated, such as surface and in-depth temperature, amount of recession and a shape change. The identified experimental data for each case is accompanied with a characterized flow environment and simulated boundary conditions predicted by a Data-Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) code Wright et al. [1998]. In addition, material thermal response numerical simulations in each test case are performed with Kentucky Aerothermodynamics and Thermal Response System (KATS-MR) Zibitsker et al. [2022] providing a comparative study and a sanity check for the proposed validation data. Sample results from the performed numerical study are shown below. Figure 1 shows distribution of surface heat flux and pressure values on a hemi-cylinder model made of FiberForm® and tested in HyMETS arc-jet facility. The results are shown for the high pressure condition among the two tests. Flow simulation was performed with DPLR code on a quarter of original geometry. In the figure, the quarter shape was mirrored across zx and xy planes to show the complete distribution. Figure 2 shows the material response results for the high pressure case (7500 Pa), simulated with KATS-MR and a comparison to the experimental data for the surface temperature and shape shape. The simulation was performed on a 2-D slice, extracted in the xy plane at the middle of the sample. Figure 3 shows the material response simulation for the low pressure case (3500 Pa) and a comparison to the experimental data for surface temperature and shape change.

ablation↗

NASA NTRS1994

Radiative transfer in shrub savanna sites in Niger: Preliminary results from HAPEX-Sahel. Part 3: Optical dynamics and vegetation index sensitivity to biomass and plant cover

A shrub savannah landscape in Niger was optically characterized utilizing blue, green, red and near-infrared wavelengths. Selected vegetation indices were evaluated for their performance and sensitivity to describe the complex Sahelian soil/vegetation canopies. Bidirectional reflectance factors (BRF) of plants and soils were measured at several view angles, and used as input to various vegetation indices. Both soil and vegetation targets had strong anisotropic reflectance properties, rendering all vegetation index (6) responses to be a direct function of sun and view geometry. Soil background influences were shown to alter the response of most vegetation indices. N-space greenness had the smallest dynamic range in VI response, but the n-space brightness index provided additional useful information. The global environmental monitoring index (GEMI) showed a large 6 dynamic range for bare soils, which was undesirable for a vegetation index. The view angle response of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), atmosphere resistant vegetation index (ARVI) and soil atmosphere resistant vegetation index (SARVI) were asymmetric about nadir for multiple view angles, and were, except for the SARVI, altered seriously by soil moisture and/or soil brightness effects. The soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI) was least affected by surface soil moisture and was symmetric about nadir for grass vegetation covers. Overall the SAVI, SARVI and the n-space vegetation index performed best under all adverse conditions and were recommended to monitor vegetation growth in the sparsely vegetated Sahelian zone.

vanLeeuwen, W. J. D.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Efficient Implementation of an Optimal Interpolator for Large Spatial Data Sets

Scattered data interpolation is a problem of interest in numerous areas such as electronic imaging, smooth surface modeling, and computational geometry. Our motivation arises from applications in geology and mining, which often involve large scattered data sets and a demand for high accuracy. The method of choice is ordinary kriging. This is because it is a best unbiased estimator. Unfortunately, this interpolant is computationally very expensive to compute exactly. For n scattered data points, computing the value of a single interpolant involves solving a dense linear system of size roughly n x n. This is infeasible for large n. In practice, kriging is solved approximately by local approaches that are based on considering only a relatively small'number of points that lie close to the query point. There are many problems with this local approach, however. The first is that determining the proper neighborhood size is tricky, and is usually solved by ad hoc methods such as selecting a fixed number of nearest neighbors or all the points lying within a fixed radius. Such fixed neighborhood sizes may not work well for all query points, depending on local density of the point distribution. Local methods also suffer from the problem that the resulting interpolant is not continuous. Meyer showed that while kriging produces smooth continues surfaces, it has zero order continuity along its borders. Thus, at interface boundaries where the neighborhood changes, the interpolant behaves discontinuously. Therefore, it is important to consider and solve the global system for each interpolant. However, solving such large dense systems for each query point is impractical. Recently a more principled approach to approximating kriging has been proposed based on a technique called covariance tapering. The problems arise from the fact that the covariance functions that are used in kriging have global support. Our implementations combine, utilize, and enhance a number of different approaches that have been introduced in literature for solving large linear systems for interpolation of scattered data points. For very large systems, exact methods such as Gaussian elimination are impractical since they require 0(n(exp 3)) time and 0(n(exp 2)) storage. As Billings et al. suggested, we use an iterative approach. In particular, we use the SYMMLQ method, for solving the large but sparse ordinary kriging systems that result from tapering. The main technical issue that need to be overcome in our algorithmic solution is that the points' covariance matrix for kriging should be symmetric positive definite. The goal of tapering is to obtain a sparse approximate representation of the covariance matrix while maintaining its positive definiteness. Furrer et al. used tapering to obtain a sparse linear system of the form Ax = b, where A is the tapered symmetric positive definite covariance matrix. Thus, Cholesky factorization could be used to solve their linear systems. They implemented an efficient sparse Cholesky decomposition method. They also showed if these tapers are used for a limited class of covariance models, the solution of the system converges to the solution of the original system. Matrix A in the ordinary kriging system, while symmetric, is not positive definite. Thus, their approach is not applicable to the ordinary kriging system. Therefore, we use tapering only to obtain a sparse linear system. Then, we use SYMMLQ to solve the ordinary kriging system. We show that solving large kriging systems becomes practical via tapering and iterative methods, and results in lower estimation errors compared to traditional local approaches, and significant memory savings compared to the original global system. We also developed a more efficient variant of the sparse SYMMLQ method for large ordinary kriging systems. This approach adaptively finds the correct local neighborhood for each query point in the interpolation process.

Memarsadeghi, Nargess↗

DOE OSTI2022

Forecasted Dynamic Line Ratings for Regional Transmission Lines

This report was prepared for the Wind Energy Technology Office for the FY 2022, quarter 3 deliverable. This details the use of forecasted dynamic line rating as an improvement over static rating for three transmission lines in three regions of interest. A selection of wind plants across Idaho, the Columbia River Gorge and offshore wind in the NYSERDA territory were modeled for their concurrent cooling effects for dynamic line rating. Regional transmission lines for the wind plant interconnections were determined and a CFD domain was created to determine local wind flows over the lines. A dynamic line rating for each of the lines was calculated for both weather observation data and HRRR model forecast data. The comparison of peaks in the wind power production were compared to the DLR peaks. It was determined that for shorter regional transmission lines, the effect of concurrent cooling that commonly occur with gen-tie lines were still valid. Concurrent cooling effects drop as the length of the regional transmission lines increase in distance from the wind plants. In addition, the accuracy of the forecasted ampacity to the weather observation data for ampacity was assessed. In general, the accuracy was best for the INL region with the NOAA-maintained sites. The Columbia River Gorge and Long Island sites showed similar levels of accuracy for the forecasted DLR. The accuracy levels were around 11% for the INL region, 15% for Columbia River Gorge and 7% for New York Long Island. The higher error for the Columbia Gorge region is likely due to the sparse availability of weather stations available, whereas both the INL site and Long Island are well instrumented.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Coherence Analysis of the Space Launch System using Unsteady Pressure Sensitive Paint

Transonic buffet during atmospheric ascent is a major source of unsteady loading on launch vehicles that, in the past, has led to structural failures. Thus, determining accurate buffet forcing functions (BFFs) to properly predict the vehicle response to buffet is of vital importance in launch vehicle design. The state of the art for obtaining the BFFs relies on wind-tunnel tests where the fluctuating pressures are measured by pressure transducers (PTs) at sparse locations on a rigid, geometrically-scaled buffet model. To compute the BFFs, the outer mold line (OML) of the vehicle is mapped onto contiguous panels centered at the location of the PTs and the measured fluctuating pressures are integrated over the panels’ areas. To mitigate conservatism due to the assumption that the measured buffet pressures act in phase across each panel, coherence factors are applied, effectively reducing the integration areas and, therefore, the buffet forces. For coherence factors to provide the proper level of BFF attenuation, accurate knowledge of the spatial and temporal correlation of the buffet pressures is paramount. Unfortunately, even with hundreds of unsteady pressure transducers instrumenting the models, compromises must be made on the spatial resolution of the PTs. Typically, the PT layout aims at resolving the pressure correlation along the longitudinal axis of the vehicle, assuming that coherent structures propagate mostly in the longitudinal direction. As a result, the distribution of azimuthal/cross-stream correlation is not well known and its impact on the estimated BFFs is often neglected. To fill this and other knowledge gaps, extremely high spatial-resolution uPSP data were collected for three different production-design configurations of the Space Launch System in the NASA Ames Research Center Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel 11-Foot Transonic Wind Tunnel. Specifically, two cargo configurations, the Block 1 and Block 1B, and one crew configuration, the Block 1B crew, were surveyed at resolutions ranging from 600,000 to over 1 million uPSP measurement locations. To shed light on the temporal and spectral behavior of are presented. Several OML regions and flow features of interest are investigated, from theexpansion/shock on the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, to the terminal shock environment on the core stage, and the Strouhal shedding behind the boosters forward attach. The sensitivity of these environments to the vehicle attitude is examined. Furthermore, for selected panels,coherence factors that accurately capture the azimuthal coherence distribution of the buffetpressures are derived and their impact on the estimated BFFs is discussed. Finally, distributions of the local convection velocity and cross spectrum phase are presented.

buffet↗

DOE OSTI2023

Budding yeasts in the subphylum Saccharomycotina Genome sequencing and assembly

Eukaryotic life depends on the functional elements encoded by both the nuclear genome and organellar genomes, such as those contained within the mitochondria. The content, size, and structure of the mitochondrial genome varies across organisms with potentially large implications for phenotypic variance and resulting evolutionary trajectories. Among yeasts in the subphylum Saccharomycotina, extensive differences have been observed in various species relative to the model yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, but mitochondrial genome sampling across many groups has been scarce, even as hundreds of nuclear genomes have become available. By extracting mitochondrial reads from existing short-read genome sequence datasets, we have greatly expanded both the number of available genomes and the coverage across sparsely sampled clades. Comparison of 353 yeast mitochondrial genomes revealed that, while size and GC content were fairly consistent across species, those in the genera Metschnikowia and Saccharomyces trended larger, while several species in the order Saccharomycetales exhibited lower GC content. Extreme examples for both size and GC content were scattered throughout the subphylum. All mitochondrial genomes shared a core set of protein-coding genes for Complexes III, IV, and V, but they varied in the presence or absence of mitochondrially-encoded canonical Complex I genes. We traced the loss of Complex I genes to a major event in the ancestor of the orders Saccharomycetales and Saccharomycodales, but we also observed several independent losses in the orders Phaffomycetales, Pichiales, and Dipodascales. In contrast to prior hypotheses based on smaller-scale datasets, comparison of evolutionary rates in protein-coding genes showed no bias towards elevated rates among aerobically fermenting (Crabtree/Warburg-positive) yeasts. Mitochondrial introns were widely distributed, but highly enriched in some groups. The majority of mitochondrial introns were poorly conserved within groups, but several were shared within groups, between groups, and even across taxonomic orders, which is consistent with horizontal gene transfer, likely involving homing endonucleases acting as selfish elements. As the number of available fungal nuclear genomes continues to expand, the methods described here to retrieve mitochondrial genome sequences from these datasets will prove invaluable to ensuring that studies of fungal mitochondrial genomes keep pace with their nuclear counterparts.

diversity↗

DOE OSTI2021

Process Anomaly Detection for Sparsely Labeled Events in Nuclear Power Plants

An essential aspect of online monitoring, subtle anomaly detection increases the detection lead time for equipment failure and enables a nuclear power plant (NPP) to mitigate unexpected partial or full outages, resulting in significant cost saving to the plant. Once an anomaly is detected by plant staff, its cause and severity are investigated. Because the vast majority of anomalies require some level of investigation, including some that require time-consuming examination, before they are passed over to the engineering organization for further analysis, plants are often equipped with tools to assist the staff in performing anomaly detection. Those tools operate as a black box and are often based on statistical methods that establish sensor correlations using preconfigured mathematical models and flag correlation deviations as anomalies. Due to the number of anomalies detected at a given NPP on a daily basis, a significant number of flagged anomalies usually await examination for days or weeks. A primary cause of this backlog is that the methods used by the tools generate many false positives. Though this is usually attributed to oversensitive model settings due to very narrow normal operation bands, it can also be associated with the model development being inadequate for the process being monitored, or with missing model inputs that could have explained misclassified positives. The performance of anomaly detection tools impacts their plant acceptance and utilization, especially when the effort to address false positives generated by the tool depletes the value or cost saved by using that tool. Thus, means to advance anomaly detection performance have been investigated by the Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability program. Previous and ongoing efforts have targeted unsupervised machine-learning (ML) methods, which do not require the labeling of any data fed into the ML model. By contrast, in supervised anomaly detection methods, every data point is labeled as either a normal or abnormal process condition, and the model is trained to replicate the classification process. Supervised methods usually outperform unsupervised methods, due to the added value in differentiating normal from anomalous states of the monitored process. An NPP’s corrective action program requires it to track and document, via a dedicated report, the resolution of any issues that occur within the plant. Once created, each report is reviewed by a plant screening committee, and several classifications and decisions are made. Recently, a collaborating NPP developed an artificial intelligence and ML-based classifier to categorize a condition report (CR) into classes that can serve to label the data as normal or anomalous. Applying CRs as labels represents a semi-supervised use case. Semi-supervised ML assumes that labels exist for some data points (i.e., labeled anomalies, in this case) but not for the rest. In this effort, semi-supervised ML methods were used to fuse data from CRs with anomaly detection methods in order to test the hypothesis that partially labeled anomalies would improve the accuracy of the anomaly detection methods. Specifically, two methods were used. The first is the deep Semi-supervised Anomaly Detection (deep SAD) method, which can handle labels ranging from fully unsupervised to fully supervised cases. The second is a newly designed ML method developed specifically for this effort and referred to as the high-order feature (HOF)-based method. To evaluate these two methods in controlled environments, synthetic data generators were developed and used. The first datasets used a spring-mass-damper (SMD) system simulator commonly found in mechanical engineering references. This was used to create two use cases: a one- and a three-mass system. Anomalies were introduced by changing the spring and damper coefficients while the system was actuated by random forces. The second datasets used the commercial Dymola-Modelica software to build a simplified nuclear reactor model. Anomalies were added in the form of corrupted sensor readings and/or control commands. The deep SAD method was tested using the SMD system, while the HOF method was tested using both datasets. Application of the deep SAD semi-supervised ML method demonstrated that labels can generate increased confidence in detecting true anomalies. This helped increase the number of true positives and decrease the number of false negatives—something that would aid in addressing the backlog of possible anomalies. Application of the HOF method demonstrated that labels can aid in down selecting from a candidate set of features to a more optimal subset in order to better differentiate between normal and anomalous conditions.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Investigation of Ga 2 O 3 as a new transparent conductive oxide for photovoltaics applications

This small innovation project intended to leverage recent activity and advances in ultrawide-bandgap oxide power electronics toward the investigation of Ga 2 O 3 as a transparent conductive oxide (TCO) for use in photovoltaics (PV). Ga 2 O 3 ’s theoretical advantage over incumbent TCOs is its very large bandgap of 4.8 eV, ensuring optical transparency of photons with λ ≥ 260 nm, effectively the full terrestrial solar spectrum. At the time of proposal writing, literature on Ga 2 O 3 as a TCO/optical material was relatively sparse — what little existed was focused on for UV sensors and/or emitters, with none related to PV. As such, this project was intended to help determine the potential of Ga 2 O 3 as a PV-oriented TCO by investigating its deposition using tools common to the PV and electronics industries — atomic layer deposition (ALD) and RF sputtering (RS), both of which are already used in PV manufacturing — and its resultant optical and electronic properties. Final project goals were to test its application to Si and III-V solar cells. Controllable film thickness and excellent uniformity was established for both methods deposition methods, with ALD providing higher precision for thinner films and RS more effective for growing thicker films. The as-deposited films were found to be amorphous in nature. Spectroscopic ellipsometry (SE) confirmed bandgaps of at least 4.8 eV and non-parasitic absorption across both AM0 and AM1.5G spectra; a refractive index approaching the expected value of 1.8 was also observed, with some degree of tunability based on process parameters. Using this initial optical data, a transfer matrix model, which interfaces with in-house EQE and LIV models, was developed to simulate Ga 2 O 3 optical effects on various solar cells, included potential in antireflection coatings (ARCs). Despite promising optical properties, the resultant resistivity / conductivity metrics did not meet expectations, regardless of deposition process. Although thick RS-deposited films, using both undoped and 1 at% Ge (n-type) doped sintered targets — demonstrated high net carrier concentrations (via C-V), and low specific resistance Ohmic contacts were demonstrated, transmission line measurements (TLM) showed very high resistivity. Further analysis indicated high vertical film conductivity, but very low lateral conductivity. Deeper characterization revealed a relatively high density of nano/microcrystalline inclusions that were ostensibly the source of the vertical conductivity, with the amorphous matrix serving as an effective insulator (likely due to high concentrations of electronic trap states). Despite extensive work to increase film polycrystallinity — demonstrated via high temperature annealing — sufficient lateral conductivity for TCO use was not achieved. The final phase of the project shifted focus toward investigation of ALD-deposited Ga 2 O 3 ’s potential as a passivant and/or passivating contact for both Si and III-V solar cells, with expectation of performance similar to Al 2 O 3 . However, initial rounds of testing using our baseline ALD process yielded minimal (but not quite zero) passivation of both GaInP and Si surfaces. Dielectric passivation is well-known to be highly process sensitive; given the unoptimized nature of the process used, this work was deemed inconclusive. The final outlook with respect to feasibility of Ga 2 O 3 as a PV-oriented TCO is, ultimately, still uncertain. The work performed in this project confirmed the optical properties and deposition methods, but the achieved electrical properties do not meet technological needs; literature reports in recent years are somewhat inconsistent and potentially untrustworthy, but generally appear to be in line with our results. At the very least it is clear that, should Ga 2 O 3 still be under consideration for PV TCO and/or selective contact applications, a significant amount of optimization and study is still needed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗