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Single trial evaluations Trial creation by Phase-wise GA-style or DE-inspired recombination Bin repository structure requires an initialization period Non-exclusionary Kill Distance Population collapse mechanic Main loop Creation Probabilistic switch between GA and DE creation types Locally optimize Submit to repository Repeat.
We have conducted a detailed simulation of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) in order to understand the system’s ability to link detections of asteroids within and across nights in order to populate a catalog of asteroid orbits. We show that LSST, using its baseline survey cadence, should be able to successfully link and catalog asteroids. In our simulation of a single monthly observing cycle, LSST produced 66 million candidate detections of main belt asteroids (MBAs) and near Earth objects (NEOs), of which 77% were spurious detections related to detector noise or image processing. Using the Moving Object Processing System, we were able to assemble single-night “tracklets” with negligible losses, but a purity of only 43%. The next stage of linking led to three-night orbits with data sets no more than 12 days in length, and it is at this stage that the false detections are readily removed from the data stream. Main-belt linkages were essentially complete and 99.8% pure. Similarly, only 0.02% of linked detections involving NEOs were spurious. On the other hand, NEO linking was 93.6% complete, indicating that 6.4% of potentially findable NEOs were not successfully linked. We believe that this rate can be improved with careful tuning of the MOPS linking algorithms. The NEO catalog was affected by main-belt confusion so that mis-linked MBAs appeared as NEOs, and many correctly linked MBAs were consistent with NEO orbits. We show that these cases arise primarily from MBAs detected at lower solar elongations and we postulate that this is an artifact of a one month simulation that will be readily resolved by surveying over many months.
Context. One of the long-term goals of exoplanet science is the atmospheric characterization of dozens of small exoplanets in order to understand their diversity and search for habitable worlds and potential biosignatures. Achieving this goal requires a space mission of sufficient scale that can spatially separate the signals from exoplanets and their host stars and thus directly scrutinize the exoplanets and their atmospheres. Aims. We seek to quantify the exoplanet detection performance of a space-based mid-infrared (MIR) nulling interferometer that measures the thermal emission of exoplanets. We study the impact of various parameters and compare the performance with that of large single-aperture mission concepts detecting exoplanets in reflected light. Methods. We have developed an instrument simulator that considers all major astrophysical noise sources and coupled it with Monte Carlo of a synthetic exoplanet population around main-sequence stars within 20 pc. This allows us to quantify the number (and types) of exoplanets that our mission concept could detect over a certain time period. Two different scenarios to distribute the observing time among the stellar targets are discussed and different apertures sizes and wavelength ranges are considered. Results. An interferometer consisting of four 2 m apertures working in the 4–18.5 μ.m wavelength range with a total instrument throughput of 5% could detect up to ≈550 exoplanets with radii between 0.5 and 6 R ⊕ with an integrated S/N ≥ 7. At least ≈160 of the detected exoplanets have radii ≤1.5 R ⊕ . Depending on the observing scenario, ≈25–45 rocky exoplanets (objects with radii between 0.5 and 1.5 R ⊕ ) orbiting within the empirical habitable zone (eHZ) of their host stars are among the detections. With four 3.5 m apertures, the total number of detections can increase to up to ≈770, including ≈60–80 rocky eHZ planets. With four times 1 m apertures, the maximum detection yield is ≈315 exoplanets, including ≤20 rocky eHZ planets. The vast majority of small, temperate exoplanets are detected around M dwarfs. The impact of changing the wavelength range to 3–20 μm or 6–17 μm on the detection yield is negligible. Conclusions. A large space-based MIR nulling interferometer will be able to directly detect hundreds of small, nearby exoplanets, tens of which would be habitable world candidates. In terms of predicted detection yield, such a mission can compete with large single-aperture reflected light missions. Given that we assumed only 2.5 years for the search phase, a significant sub-set of the detected exoplanets can be followed-up in a second mission phase to obtain high SNR thermal emission spectra, leveraging the superior diagnostic power of the MIR wavelength regime compared to shorter wavelengths.
A statistical decision procedure called chain pooling had been developed for model selection in fitting the results of a two-level fixed-effects full or fractional factorial experiment not having replication. The basic strategy included the use of one nominal level of significance for a preliminary test and a second nominal level of significance for the final test. The subject has been reexamined from the point of view of using as many as three successive statistical model deletion procedures in fitting the results of a single experiment. The investigation consisted of random number studies intended to simulate the results of a proposed aircraft turbine-engine rotor-burst-protection experiment. As a conservative approach, population model coefficients were chosen to represent a saturated 2 to the 4th power experiment with a distribution of parameter values unfavorable to the decision procedures. Three model selection strategies were developed.
Hair cells were dissociated from the semicircular canal, utricle, lagena and saccule of white king pigeons. Type I hair cells were identified morphologically based on the ratios of neck width to cuticular plate width (NPR < 0.72) as well as neck width to cell body width (NBR < 0.64). The perforated patch variant of the whole-cell recording technique was used to measure electrical properties from type I hair cells. In voltage-clamp, the membrane properties of all identified type I cells were dominated by a predominantly outward potassium current, previously characterized in semicircular canal as IKI. Zero-current potential, activation, deactivation, slope conductance, pharmacologic and steady-state properties of the complex currents were not statistically different between type I hair cells of different vestibular end organs. The voltage dependence causes a significant proportion of this conductance to be active about the cell's zero-current potential. The first report of the whole-cell activation kinetics of the conductance is presented, showing a voltage dependence that could be best fit by an equation for a single exponential. Results presented here are the first data from pigeon dissociated type I hair cells from utricle, saccule and lagena suggesting that the basolateral conductances of a morphologically identified population of type I hair cells are conserved between functionally different vestibular end organs; the major conductance being a delayed rectifier characterized previously in semicircular canal hair cells as IKI.
We present the first survey results of hard X-ray point sources in the Galactic Center (GC) region by NuSTAR. We have discovered 70 hard (3-79 keV) X-ray point sources in a 0.6 deg(sup 2) region around SgrA* with a total exposure of 1.7 Ms, and 7 sources in the Sgr B2 field with 300 ks. We identify clear Chandra counterparts for 58 NuSTAR sources and assign candidate counterparts for the remaining 19. The NuSTAR survey reaches X-ray luminosities of approx. 4× and approx. 8 ×10(exp 32) erg/s at the GC (8 kpc) in the 3-10 and 10-40 keV bands, respectively. The source list includes three persistent luminous X-ray binaries (XBs) and the likely run-away pulsar called the Cannonball. New source-detection significance maps reveal a cluster of hard (>10 keV) X-ray sources near the Sgr A diffuse complex with no clear soft X-ray counterparts. The severe extinction observed in the Chandra spectra indicates that all the NuSTAR sources are in the central bulge or are of extragalactic origin. Spectral analysis of relatively bright NuSTAR sources suggests that magnetic cataclysmic variables constitute a large fraction (>40%-60%). Both spectral analysis and logN-logS distributions of the NuSTAR sources indicate that the X-ray spectra of the NuSTAR sources should have kT > 20 keV on average for a single temperature thermal plasma model or an average photon index of Lambda = 1.5-2 for a power-law model. These findings suggest that the GC X-ray source population may contain a larger fraction of XBs with high plasma temperatures than the field population.
Energetic ion spectra measured by the Active Magnetospheric Particle Tracer Explorers/Charge Composition Explorer (AMPTE/CCE) downstream from the Earth's quasi-parallel bow shock (in the quasi-parallel magnetosheath) and in the plasma depletion layer are compared. In the latter region, energetic ions are from a single source, leakage of magnetospheric ions across the magnetopause and into the plasma depletion layer. In the former region, both the magnetospheric source and shock acceleration of the thermal solar wind population at the quasi-parallel shock can contribute to the energetic ion spectra. The relative strengths of these two energetic ion sources are determined through the comparison of spectra from the two regions. It is found that magnetospheric leakage can provide an upper limit of 35% of the total energetic H(+) population in the quasi-parallel magnetosheath near the magnetopause in the energy range from approximately 10 to approximately 80 keV/e and substantially less than this limit for the energetic He(2+) population. The rest of the energetic H(+) population and nearly all of the energetic He(2+) population are accelerated out of the thermal solar wind population through shock acceleration processes. By comparing the energetic and thermal He(2+) and H(+) populations in the quasi-parallel magnetosheath, it is found that the quasi-parallel bow shock is 2 to 3 times more efficient at accelerating He(2+) than H(+). This result is consistent with previous estimates from shock acceleration theory and simulati ons.
At redshifts, z>l, the rest-frame mid-UV is brought into view of large, ground-based telescopes. Here, we report on a study of the potential of the rest-frame UV spectrum for deriving the age since the last major episode of star formation in a galaxy. We base this investigation on wide-band (0.2-1.0 microns), low-resolution (R-1000) spectra of single stars in Hubble's Next Generation Spectral Library (NGSL). We find that a combination of mid-UV spectral indices and colors can indeed yield the age of a stellar population, but only if light from the stellar population is unreddened.
Ambient air pollution is the largest environmental health risk factor, leading to several million premature deaths globally per year. The challenge of combating poor air quality is exacerbated by growing urban populations, changing emissions, and a warming climate. While there have been many advances monitoring and modeling of atmospheric composition, reflected in the dramatic increase in archived Earth Observations, there is no single measurement or method that alone can provide an accurate depiction of the entire atmosphere. The rapidly growing collections of observational and modeling data require us to be smarter about what data to include, and how such data is used. In recent years, NASA has invested significantly in advancing the concepts for Analytics Collaborative Framework (ACF) [5] and New Observing Strategies (NOS) [4] to tackle our software infrastructure need for harmonized data management and dynamic acquisition of diverse measurements for on-demand, interactive, multivariate analysis, and access [3]. It is not enough to have a big data, standalone analytics solution; it is critical that we start integrating data from remote sensing, modeling, and in-situ networks in a harmonized manner that enables timely and data-driven decision-making for air quality management. This work presents the design and development of an Air Quality Analytics Collaborative Framework (AQ ACF), as part of NASA’s Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) effort, to establish a data, machine-learning, and numerically driven platform for air quality analysis, visualization, and prediction.
The idea behind genetic algorithms is to extract optimization strategies nature uses successfully - known as Darwinian Evolution - and transform them for application in mathematical optimization theory to find the global optimum in a defined phase space. One could imagine a population of individual 'explorers' sent into the optimization phase-space. Each explorer is defined by its genes, what means, its position inside the phase-space is coded in his genes. Every explorer has the duty to find a value of the quality of his position in the phase space. (Consider the phase-space being a number of variables in some technological process, the value of quality of any position in the phase space - in other words: any set of the variables - can be expressed by the yield of the desired chemical product.) Then the struggle of 'life' begins. The three fundamental principles are selection, mating/crossover, and mutation. Only explorers (= genes) sitting on the best places will reproduce and create a new population. This is performed in the second step (mating/crossover). The 'hope' behind this part of the algorithm is, that 'good' sections of two parents will be recombined to yet better fitting children. In fact, many of the created children will not be successful (as in biological evolution), but a few children will indeed fulfill this hope. These good sections are named in some publications as building blocks. Now there appears a problem. Repeating these steps, no new area would be explored. The two former steps would only exploit the already known regions in the phase space, which could lead to premature convergence of the algorithm with the consequence of missing the global optimum by exploiting some local optimum. The third step, mutation, ensures the necessary accidental effects. One can imagine the new population being mixed up a little bit to bring some new information into this set of genes. Whereas in biology a gene is described as a macro-molecule with four different bases to code the genetic information, a gene in genetic algorithms is usually defined as a bitstring (a sequence of b 1's and 0's).
As computational resources continue their expansion, weather forecast models are transitioning to the use of parameterizations that predict the evolution of hydrometeors and their microphysical processes, rather than estimating the bulk effects of clouds and precipitation that occur on a sub-grid scale. These parameterizations are referred to as single-moment, bulk water microphysics schemes, as they predict the total water mass among hydrometeors in a limited number of classes. Although the development of single moment microphysics schemes have often been driven by the need to predict the structure of convective storms, they may also provide value in predicting accumulations of snowfall. Predicting the accumulation of snowfall presents unique challenges to forecasters and microphysics schemes. In cases where surface temperatures are near freezing, accumulated depth often depends upon the snowfall rate and the ability to overcome an initial warm layer. Precipitation efficiency relates to the dominant ice crystal habit, as dendrites and plates have relatively large surface areas for the accretion of cloud water and ice, but are only favored within a narrow range of ice supersaturation and temperature. Forecast models and their parameterizations must accurately represent the characteristics of snow crystal populations, such as their size distribution, bulk density and fall speed. These properties relate to the vertical distribution of ice within simulated clouds, the temperature profile through latent heat release, and the eventual precipitation rate measured at the surface. The NASA Goddard, single-moment microphysics scheme is available to the operational forecast community as an option within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The NASA Goddard scheme predicts the occurrence of up to six classes of water mass: vapor, cloud ice, cloud water, rain, snow and either graupel or hail.
Two contemporary issues foretell a shift from our historical Earth based industrial economy and habitation to a solar system based society. The first is the limits to Earth's carrying capacity, that is the maximum number of people that the Earth can support before a catastrophic impact to the health of the planet and human species occurs. The simple example of carrying capacity is that of a bacterial colony in a Petri dish with a limited amount of nutrient. The colony experiences exponential population growth until the carrying capacity is reached after which catastrophic depopulation often results. Estimates of the Earth s carrying capacity vary between 14 and 40 billion people. Although at current population growth rates we may have over a century before we reach Earth s carrying limit our influence on climate and resources on the planetary scale is becoming scientifically established. The second issue is the exponential growth of knowledge and technological power. The exponential growth of technology interacts with the exponential growth of population in a manner that is unique to a highly intelligent species. Thus, the predicted consequences (world famines etc.) of the limits to growth have been largely avoided due to technological advances. However, at the mid twentieth century a critical coincidence occurred in these two trends humanity obtained the technological ability to extinguish life on the planetary scale (by nuclear, chemical, biological means) and attained the ability to expand human life beyond Earth. This paper examines an optimized O Neill/Glaser model (O Neill 1975; Curreri 2007; Detweiler and Curreri 2008) for the economic human population of space. Critical to this model is the utilization of extraterrestrial resources, solar power and spaced based labor. A simple statistical analysis is then performed which predicts the robustness of a single planet based technological society versus that of multiple world (independent habitats) society.
Two contemporary issues foretell a shift from our historical Earth based industrial economy and habitation to a solar system based society. The first is the limits to Earth s carrying capacity, that is the maximum number of people that the Earth can support before a catastrophic impact to the health of the planet and human species occurs. The simple example of carrying capacity is that of a bacterial colony in a Petri dish with a limited amount of nutrient. The colony experiences exponential population growth until the carrying capacity is reached after which catastrophic depopulation often results. Estimates of the Earth s carrying capacity vary between 14 and 40 billion people. Although at current population growth rates we may have over a century before we reach Earth s carrying limit our influence on climate and resources on the planetary scale is becoming scientifically established. The second issue is the exponential growth of knowledge and technological power. The exponential growth of technology interacts with the exponential growth of population in a manner that is unique to a highly intelligent species. Thus, the predicted consequences (world famines etc.) of the limits to growth have been largely avoided due to technological advances. However, at the mid twentieth century a critical coincidence occurred in these two trends humanity obtained the technological ability to extinguish life on the planetary scale (by nuclear, chemical, biological means) and attained the ability to expand human life beyond Earth. This paper examines an optimized O Neill/Glaser model (O Neill 1975; Curreri 2007; Detweiler and Curreri 2008) for the economic human population of space. Critical to this model is the utilization of extraterrestrial resources, solar power and spaced based labor. A simple statistical analysis is then performed which predicts the robustness of a single planet based technological society versus that of multiple world (independent habitats) society.
Two contemporary issues foretell a shift from our historical Earth based industrial economy and habitation to a solar system based society. The first is the limits to Earth s carrying capacity, that is the maximum number of people that the Earth can support before a catastrophic impact to the health of the planet and human species occurs. The simple example of carrying capacity is that of a bacterial colony in a Petri dish with a limited amount of nutrient. The colony experiences exponential population growth until the carrying capacity is reached after which catastrophic depopulation often results. Estimates of the Earth s carrying capacity vary between 14 and 40 billion people. Although at current population growth rates we may have over a century before we reach Earth s carrying limit our influence on climate and resources on the planetary scale is becoming scientifically established. The second issue is the exponential growth of knowledge and technological power. The exponential growth of technology interacts with the exponential growth of population in a manner that is unique to a highly intelligent species. Thus, the predicted consequences (world famines etc.) of the limits to growth have been largely avoided due to technological advances. However, at the mid twentieth century a critical coincidence occurred in these two trends humanity obtained the technological ability to extinguish life on the planetary scale (by nuclear, chemical, biological means) and attained the ability to expand human life beyond Earth. This paper examines an optimized O'Neill/Glaser model (O Neill 1975; Curreri 2007; Detweiler and Curreri 2008) for the economic human population of space. Critical to this model is the utilization of extraterrestrial resources, solar power and spaced based labor. A simple statistical analysis is then performed which predicts the robustness of a single planet based technological society versus that of multiple world (independent habitats) society.
This work was accomplished in support of the Finite Element [FE] Strength Task Group, NASA Johnson Space Center [JSC], Houston, TX. This group was charged with the task of developing rules for using finite-element [FE] bone-strength measures to construct operating bands for bone health that are relevant to astronauts following exposure to spaceflight. FE modeling is a computational tool used by engineers to estimate the failure loads of complex structures. Recently, some engineers have used this tool to characterize the failure loads of the hip in population studies that also monitored fracture outcomes. A Directed Research Task was authorized in July, 2012 to investigate FE data from these population studies to derive these proposed standards of bone health as a function of age and gender. The proposed standards make use of an FE-based index that integrates multiple contributors to bone strength, an expanded evaluation that is critical after an astronaut is exposed to spaceflight. The current index of bone health used by NASA is the measurement of areal BMD. There was a concern voiced by a research and clinical advisory panel that the sole use of areal BMD would be insufficient to fully evaluate the effects of spaceflight on the hip. Hence, NASA may not have a full understanding of fracture risk, both during and after a mission, and may be poorly estimating in-flight countermeasure efficacy. The FE Strength Task Group - composed of principal investigators of the aforementioned population studies and of FE modelers -donated some of its population QCT data to estimate of hip bone strength by FE modeling for this specific purpose. Consequently, Human Health Countermeasures [HHC] has compiled a dataset of FE hip strengths, generated by a single FE modeling approach, from human subjects (approx.1060) with ages covering the age range of the astronauts. The dataset has been analyzed to generate a set of FE strength cutoffs for the following scenarios: a) Qualify an applicant for astronaut candidacy, b) Qualify an astronaut for a long-duration (LD) mission, c) Qualify a veteran LD astronaut for a second LD mission, and d) Establish a non-permissible, minimum hip strength following a given mission architecture. This abstract will present the FE-based standards accepted by the FE Strength Task Group for its recommendation to HHC in January 2015.
Given the importance of aerosol particles to radiative transfer via aerosol-radiation interactions, a methodology for tracking and diagnosing causes of temporal changes in regional-scale aerosol populations is illustrated. The aerosol optical properties tracked include estimates of total columnar burden (aerosol optical depth, AOD), dominant size mode (Ångström exponent, AE), and relative magnitude of radiation scattering versus absorption (single scattering albedo, SSA), along with metrics of the structure of the spatial field of these properties. Over well-defined regions of North America, there are generally negative temporal trends in mean and extreme AOD, and SSA. These are consistent with lower aerosol burdens and transition towards a relatively absorbing aerosol, driven primarily by declining sulfur dioxide emissions. Conversely, more remote regions are characterized by increasing mean and extreme AOD that is attributed to increased local wildfire emissions and long-range (transcontinental) transport. Regional and national reductions in anthropogenic emissions of aerosol precursors are leading to declining spatial autocorrelation in the aerosol fields and increased importance of local anthropogenic emissions in dictating aerosol burdens. However, synoptic types associated with high aerosol burdens are intensifying (becoming more warm and humid), and thus changes in synoptic meteorology may be offsetting aerosol burden reductions associated with emissions legislation.
A recent psychoacoustic test at NASA Langley generated a dataset of 3-alternative forced-choice responses for 40 subjects that measured the audibility of a tone complex in a shaped broadband masker. The task was completed by 4 subjects at a time in a small theatre-like environment using predetermined stimuli levels. These data were subject to 4 forms of probit regression: a “complete pooling” analysis in which all data from the test was fit with one curve, two forms of “no pooling” analyses in which subjects’ data were treated individually (using both packaged and custom software), and a “partial pooling” analysis in which multilevel-regression software fit both individual curves as well as population-level parameters at the same time. The results of the analyses are compared in terms of both individual- and population-level parameters. Partial pooling appears to give the most consistent results at both levels, as well as provide the most robustness among the packaged approaches (albeit with added complexity over single-level regression). These results are also contained in a recent NASA technical memorandum entitled “Comparisons of Analysis Methods Applied to Alternative Forced Choice Audibility Data.”
Magnetospheric imaging is a new discipline whose goal is to make pictures of the energetic particle populations trapped in the magnetic field of Earth (or any other planet). This project demonstrated the technical feasibility and scientific validity of magnetospheric imaging using energetic neutral atoms (ENA) with the publication and quantitative analysis of the first ENA images ever obtained from space. ENA's are produced when singly-charged energetic (approximately 100 keV) trapped ions make an atomic collision with the neutral hydrogen atoms which boil of the top of the Earth's atmosphere. These hydrogen atoms suffuse the entire trapping volume of the magnetosphere. The energetic ion steals the electron from the atmospheric hydrogen, so the energetic ion is transformed into an energetic neutral atom with a velocity of several thousands of kilometers/second. Moreover, the new-born ENA preserves the velocity that the trapped ion had at the time of the collision. Consequently, any population of energetic ions emits ENA's.