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At least 235 records · Page 13

ML-Based Rock Properties and Seismic Volume Enhancement

This project aims to improve field-scale Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) assessments by enhancing petrophysical and geophysical log predictions through machine learning and neural networks. In our work during EY23, we applied Conditional Variational Autoencoders (CVAEs) to predict compressional velocity (Vp) and assess CO2 saturation levels in geological formations at the Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP). In another task, we improved full-waveform inversion (FWI) methods with machine-learning approaches using lithological constraints. Full-waveform inversion (FWI) of seismic data estimates the elastic properties of subsurface rocks with high spatial resolution.

Nathanail, Athanasios↗

Real-time deep-learning inversion of seismic full waveform data for CO 2 saturation and uncertainty in geological carbon storage monitoring

Deep-learning inversion has recently drawn attention in geological carbon storage research due to its potential of imaging and monitoring carbon storage in real time, significantly improving efficiency and safety of carbon storage operations. We present a deep-learning full waveform inversion method that after the neural network has been trained can image CO 2 saturation and its uncertainty in real time. Our deep-learning inversion method is based on the U-Net architecture with the neural network trained on pairs of synthetic seismic data and CO 2 saturation models. Accordingly, our training establishes a mapping relationship between seismic data and CO 2 saturation models and once fully trained directly estimates CO 2 saturation as a function of subsurface location. We further quantify uncertainties of CO 2 saturation estimates using the Monte Carlo dropout method and a bootstrap aggregating method. For this proof-of-concept study, the CO 2 training models and data are derived from the Kimberlina 1.2 model, a hypothetical 3D geological carbon storage model that is constructed based on various geological and hydrological data from the Southern San Joaquin Basin, California. We perform deep-learning inversion experiments using noise-free and noisy training and test data sets and compare the results. Our modelling experiments show that (1) the deep-learning inversion can estimate 2D distributions of CO 2 fairly well even in the presence of Gaussian random noise and (2) both CO 2 saturation imaging and uncertainty quantification can be done in real time. Our results suggest that the deep-learning inversion method can serve as a robust real-time monitoring tool for geological carbon storage and/or other time-varying reservoir/aquifer properties that result from injection, extraction, and/or other subsurface transport phenomena.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Proliferation Detection via Acoustic Monitoring of Pyroprocessing Equipment and Related Systems

In support of nuclear safeguards and nonproliferation, this effort is leveraging acoustic and seismic sensors to advance detection of pyroprocessing activities. Pyroprocessing, or electrochemical processing, is a method of separating irradiated nuclear fuel into its actinide and fission product components, enabling the reuse of fuel materials and reducing the radiotoxicity of the remaining waste. Verification and accountability in the process poses several challenges because of the high radiation environment and the presence of material holdup through the facility. Irregular or unaccounted-for equipment operation can signify diversion or misuse of critical materials. Acoustic and seismic sensors offer the capability to identify periods of equipment operation and help verify adherence to accountancy records.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Multi-phenomenology Yield Characterization

This report serves as the first delivery of a four-year applied science effort to transform and advance the error bounds for the yield estimate of an explosion. Each year’s delivery will be in this form, culminating in the submission of this work for peer review to a scientific journal. Importantly, the yearly progress reports can then also be viewed as expanding drafts working towards a formal journal article submission. For the first tranche of funding, we collaborated with Air Force Technical Applications Center (AFTAC) scientists to identify unclassified real-world data that demonstrate and validate our advanced error propagation methods. Collaboration includes visits to AFTAC and telecons. For this development, we illustrate the fusion of seismic, acoustic, optical, and surface effect signatures from an explosion. The mathematics and code being adapted to this specific application (Williams et al., 2021) involves physics models of multiple sensor signatures. We have also identified related physics models and have integrated them into code. Current methods of underground explosion yield estimation for the Threshold Test Ban Treaty (TTBT) have served the US treaty monitoring mission well for decades. A research objective of the Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development (DNN R&D) office of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has always been to provide new technical capabilities for monitoring lower thresholds. The general model and error propagation code to be developed in this project is based on significant advances in error modeling and propagation needed to analyze data at lower detection thresholds. The second tranche of funding for this project began on May 1, 2022, and planned work for the second tranche includes: i) completing the integration of physical model code into the general error model framework; this code accommodates a wide range of linear/nonlinear source models, fixed/ random effects, and frequentist/Bayesian analyses (the purpose of which is not to dictate to users how to analyze data, but instead to allow users the maximum flexibility in their work); ii) illustrative application of code to identified data, and; iii) initial planning with AFTAC researchers on delivery of code to the Common Development Environment at AFTAC, and continued writing of the planned final journal article submission (year two of this progress report), with particular emphasis on descriptions of data identified for this effort.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Reverse Time Migration of Explosion-generated Infrasound and Ground-Coupled Airwaves

Accurately locating sources of seismic and infrasonic energy is integral to global monitoring of earthquakes and explosions. Infrasound arrivals times can be used to calculate the origins of events that generate acoustic energy. Picking times of emergent infrasound arrivals, however, can be difficult and prone to uncertainty. Reverse time migration (RTM) is a waveform based location method that does not rely on picked arrival times. Here we use RTM to locate a known chemical explosion that generated acoustic and acoustic-to-seismic signals on 26 and 108 receivers, respectively. All location predictions are less than 24 km from the known location with time errors of less than three minutes. We find strong overall agreement between our results and those of existing RTM and arrival time based methods. Our initial results suggest that RTM is a promising method of event location using acoustic arrivals recorded on both infrasound and seismic instrumentation.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

A Comparison of Machine Learning Methods of Association Tested on Dense Nodal Arrays

The association of phase picks to form events is one of the fundamental components of seismology. Large and dense sensor networks, such as >1000 geophone arrays (and distributed acoustic sensing), offer unique challenges in association due to the vast numbers of observations and high likelihood of errant picks. In addition, the large number of stations can greatly increase the time it takes to perform the association. For this reason, machine learning (ML) methods might provide a more optimal method of association for such networks. In this work, we examine how well ML methods (e.g., Gaussian mixture model association, PhaseLink, and Graph Earthquake Neural Interpretation Engine) can incorporate dense seismic arrays into regional networks and how well they handle the increasing numbers of stations. Here, we test their capabilities on two dense seismic deployments, one within Rock Valley Nevada (52 nodes and a 9-station sparse local network), and the LArge-n Seismic Survey in Oklahoma dense nodal array (>1800 vertical-component geophones). Processing data from these two different styles of dense seismic deployments allows testing of how the ML algorithms can merge array data with a broader regional network, how they deal with poorly picked phases, and how they handle anthropogenic noise. We compare the ML-associated bulletins to those obtained using the Rapid Earthquake Association and Location algorithm, a more traditional method of association. We find that there are very small differences in results between the methods for small networks (<100 stations) with low pick rates. For large networks (>1000), there are enough errant picks that some of the ML methods start to create false events out of noise. We also find that the ML methods vary in computation time significantly but are all faster than the traditional method tested here.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Estimating Explosion Yields Using Moment Tensor Solutions and Seismic Moment

We report seismic moment, a measurable and well-understood quantity of seismic sources, is used to estimate the yield of explosions. Application of such a method in the past, as in the manner of m b -derived yields, has been complicated by the effect of variations in the explosion working point, depth, and secondary source effects (such as spalling and tectonic release) on the observed moment. We start using the full (six-element) moment tensor solution, which can capture the relevant source physics and, at least in theory, better isolate the primary explosion source. The moment-to-yield ratio is then estimated using an explosion source model which, provided with emplacement conditions, can relate the two parameters. We discuss the major sources of uncertainty associated with the method, and calibrate it with chemical and nuclear explosions at the Nevada National Security Site. We then apply the method to published moment tensor solutions for the six declared North Korean nuclear explosions that occurred between 2006 and 2017. The results are mostly consistent with other yield estimates made using a variety of high-frequency methods. This technique is a new approach to estimating explosive yield and simple to implement, as much of the complexity is captured by the source models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Effect of Time Window and Spectral Measurement Options on Empirical Green’s Function Analysis Using DAS Array and Seismic Stations

The recorded seismic waveform is a convolution of event source term, path term, and station term. Removing high-frequency attenuation due to path effect is a challenging problem. Empirical Green’s function (EGF) method uses nearly collocated small earthquakes to correct the path and station terms for larger events recorded at the same station. However, this method is subject to variability due to many factors. Here, we focus on three events that were well recorded by the seismic network and a rapid response distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) array. Using a suite of high-quality EGF events, we assess the influence of time window, spectral measurement options, and types of data on the spectral ratio and relative source time function (RSTF) results. Increased number of tapers (from 2 to 16) tends to increase the measured corner frequency and reduce the source complexity. Extended long time window (e.g., 30 s) tends to produce larger variability of corner frequency. The multitaper algorithm that simultaneously optimizes both target and EGF spectra produces the most stable corner-frequency measurements. The stacked spectral ratio and RSTF from the DAS array are more stable than two nearby seismic stations, and are comparable to stacked results from the seismic network, suggesting that DAS array has strong potential in source characterization.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Nowcasting Earthquakes in Southern California With Machine Learning: Bursts, Swarms, and Aftershocks May Be Related to Levels of Regional Tectonic Stress

Abstract Seismic bursts in Southern California are sequences of small earthquakes strongly clustered in space and time and include seismic swarms and aftershock sequences. A readily observable property of these events, the radius of gyration ( R G ), allows us to connect the bursts to the temporal occurrence of the largest M ≥ 7 earthquakes in California since 1984. In the Southern California earthquake catalog, we identify hundreds of these potentially coherent space‐time structures in a region defined by a circle of radius 600 km around Los Angeles. We compute R G for each cluster then filter them to identify those bursts with large numbers of events closely clustered in space, which we call “compact” bursts. Our basic assumption is that these compact bursts reflect the dynamics associated with large earthquakes. Once we have filtered the burst catalog, we apply an exponential moving average to construct a time series for the Southern California region. We observe that the R G of these bursts systematically decreases prior to large earthquakes, in a process that we might term “radial localization.” The R G then rapidly increases during an aftershock sequence, and a new cycle of “radial localization” then begins. These time series display cycles of recharge and discharge reminiscent of seismic stress accumulation and release in the elastic rebound process. The complex burst dynamics we observe are evidently a property of the region as a whole, rather than being associated with individual faults. This new method allows us to improve earthquake nowcasting, which is a technique to evaluate the current state of hazard in a seismically active region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Solving multiphysics-based inverse problems with learned surrogates and constraints

Abstract Solving multiphysics-based inverse problems for geological carbon storage monitoring can be challenging when multimodal time-lapse data are expensive to collect and costly to simulate numerically. We overcome these challenges by combining computationally cheap learned surrogates with learned constraints. Not only does this combination lead to vastly improved inversions for the important fluid-flow property, permeability, it also provides a natural platform for inverting multimodal data including well measurements and active-source time-lapse seismic data. By adding a learned constraint, we arrive at a computationally feasible inversion approach that remains accurate. This is accomplished by including a trained deep neural network, known as a normalizing flow, which forces the model iterates to remain in-distribution, thereby safeguarding the accuracy of trained Fourier neural operators that act as surrogates for the computationally expensive multiphase flow simulations involving partial differential equation solves. By means of carefully selected experiments, centered around the problem of geological carbon storage, we demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed constrained optimization method on two different data modalities, namely time-lapse well and time-lapse seismic data. While permeability inversions from both these two modalities have their pluses and minuses, their joint inversion benefits from either, yielding valuable superior permeability inversions and CO 2 plume predictions near, and far away, from the monitoring wells.

Yin, Ziyi (ORCID:0000000250248771)↗

Back-Azimuth Estimation of Air-to-Ground Coupled Infrasound from Transverse Coherence Minimization [Slides]

Infrasonic signals are generated by a variety of natural and anthropogenic sources and can propagate long distances through a windy, layered atmosphere. When these signals impinge on the ground, the resulting deformation can be recorded by buried seismometers, we call this signal a ground coupled airwave (GCA). GCAs are relatively common, and several methods now exist to leverage an infrasound microphone to separate GCAs from pure seismic motion.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

A New Approach to Predict Hydrogeological Parameters Using Shear Waves from the Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves Method

For near-surface contaminant characterization, the accurate prediction of hydrogeological parameters in anisotropic and heterogeneous environments has been a challenge since the last decades. However, recent advances in near-surface geophysics have facilitated the use of geophysical data for hydrogeological characterization in the last few years. A pseudo 3-D high resolution P-wave shallow seismic reflection survey was performed at the P Reactor Area, Savannah River Site, South Carolina in order to delineate and predict migration pathways of a large contaminant plume including trichloroethylene. This contaminant plume originates from the northwest section of the reactor facility that is located within the Upper Atlantic Coastal Plain. The data were collected with 40 Hz geophones, an accelerated weight-drop as seismic source and 1 m receiver spacing with near- and far-offsets of 0.5 and 119.5 m, respectively. In such areas with near-surface contaminants, a detailed subsurface characterization of the vadose zone hydraulic parameters is very important. Indeed, an inexpensive method of deriving such parameters by the use of seismic reflection surveys is beneficial, and our approach uses the relationship between seismic velocity and hydrogeological parameters together with empirical observations relating porosity to permeability and hydraulic conductivity. Shear wave velocity ( V s ) profiles were estimated from surface wave dispersion analysis of the seismic reflection data and were subsequently used to derive hydraulic parameters such as porosity, permeability, and hydraulic conductivity. Additional geophysical data including core samples, vertical seismic profiling, surface electrical resistivity tomography, natural gamma and electrical resistivity logs allowed for a robust assessment of the validity and geological significance of the estimated V s and hydrogeological models. The results demonstrate the usefulness of this approach for the upper 15 m of shallow unconsolidated sediments even though the survey design parameters were not optimal for surface wave analysis due to the higher than desired frequency geophones.

Engineering↗

LocOO3D User's Manual

LocOO3D is a software tool that computes geographical locations for seismic events at regional to global scales. This software has a rich set of features, including the ability to use custom 3D velocity models, correlated observations and master event locations. The LocOO3D software is especially useful for research related to seismic monitoring applications, since it allows users to easily explore a variety of location methods and scenarios and is compatible with the CSS3.0 data format used in monitoring applications. The LocOO3D software, User's Manual, and Examples are available on the web at: https://github.com/sandialabs/LocOO3D For additional information on GeoTess, SALSA3D, RSTT, and other related software, please see: https://github.com/sandialabs/GeoTessJava, www.sandia.gov/geotess, www.sandia.gov/salsa3d, and www.sandia.gov/rstt

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Convolutional Neural Networks for Signal Detection

Currently, traditional methods such as short-term average/long-term average (STA/LTA) are used to detect arrivals in three-component seismic waveform data. Accurately establishing the identity and arrival of these waves is helpful in detecting and locating seismic events. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have been shown to significantly improve performance at local distances. This work will expand the use of CNNs to more remote distances and lower magnitudes. Sandia National Labs (SNL) will explore the advantages and limits of a particular approach and investigate requirements for expanding this technique to different types, distances, and magnitudes of events in the future. The team will describe detailed performance results of this method tuned on a curated dataset from Utah with its expert-defined arrival picks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

MASTODON: An Open-Source Software for Seismic Analysis and Risk Assessment of Critical Infrastructure

Seismic analysis and risk assessment of safety-critical infrastructure like hospitals, nuclear power plants, dams, and facilities handling radioactive materials involve computationally intensive numerical models and coupled multiphysics scenarios. They are also performed in a strict regulatory environment that requires high software quality assurance standards, and in the case of safety-related nuclear facilities, a conformance to the American Society of Mechanical Engineers Nuclear Quality Assurance (NQA-1) standard. This paper introduces the open-source finite-element software, MASTODON (Multi-hazard Analysis of Stochastic Time-Domain Phenomena), which implements state-of-the-art seismic analysis and risk assessment tools in a quality-controlled environment. MASTODON is built on MOOSE (Multi-physics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment), which is a highly parallelizable, NQA-1 conforming, coupled multiphysics, finite-element framework developed at Idaho National Laboratory. MASTODON is capable of fault rupture and source-to-site wave propagation using the domain reduction method, nonlinear site response, and soil-structure interaction analysis, implicit and explicit time integration, automated stochastic simulations, and seismic probabilistic risk assessment. When coupled with other MOOSE applications, MASTODON can also solve strongly and weakly coupled multiphysics problems. This paper presents a summary of the capabilities of MASTODON and some demonstrative examples.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Efficient 3-D velocity model building using joint inline and crossline plane-wave wave-equation migration velocity analyses

SUMMARY Wave-equation migration velocity analysis (WEMVA) is an image-domain inversion method for velocity model building. Automatic plane-wave WEMVA (PWEMVA) calculates the moveouts of plane-wave common-image gathers (CIGs) by searching a best-fitting parabola with semblance analysis and backprojects residual CIG moveouts into wavefield wave paths with a reflection tomographic kernel. However, 3-D PWEMVA is very computationally expensive because 3-D reflection tomographic inversion requires at least five 3-D reverse-time migrations per iteration and stores two types of source wavefields at model boundaries. We develop a joint inline and crossline PWEMVA method for efficient 3-D velocity model building. We alternatively implement the inline and crossline PWEMVAs with a constraint for each other, in which we iteratively construct the 3-D velocity model update through 1-D spline interpolation of 2-D gradients. The inline and crossline joint inversion is practical since PWEMVA only inverts for low-wavenumber velocity perturbations along wave paths, and the method can take less than 1 per cent of the computational cost of full 3-D PWEMVA. To construct unaliased plane waves for our joint inline and crossline PWEMVA, we develop a 3-D data interpolation method in the frequency–wavenumber (FK) domain to recover regularly and randomly missing traces. The method minimizes the misfit on sufficiently localized data subsets with iterative optimal step lengths and a gradient preconditioner that iteratively selects dominant dips along different azimuths. In numerical experiments, we use a 3-D synthetic seismic data set and a land 3-D field seismic data set acquired at the Farnsworth CO2-EOR (enhanced oil recovery) field to demonstrate the efficacy of our velocity model building and data interpolation methods.

Liu, Xuejian↗

cjohnson-LANL/GRL_Kilauea

The python routines are outlined in detail to perform the methods and results in the manuscript under review in the journal Geophysical Research Letters titled “Seismic features predict ground motions during repeating caldera collapse sequence” with LA-UR-23-33345. All routines are written in open source python and were applied to publicly available data sets. The codes formats the data into the appropriate structure required to train a boosted tree regression model. Other codes produce figure results.

Johnson, Christopher W↗

The Strange Case of Ground-Coupled Airwaves on Seismoacoustic Stations at Local to Near-Regional Scales

Here we investigate the application of ground-coupled airwaves observed by seismoacoustic stations at local to near-regional scales to detect signals of interest and determine back-azimuth information. Ground-coupled airwaves are created from incident pressure waves traveling through the atmosphere that couple to the earth and transmit as a seismic wave with retrograde elliptical motion. Previous studies at sub-local scales (<10 km from a source of interest) found the back-azimuth to the source could be accurately determined from seismoacoustic signals recorded by acoustic and 3-component seismic sensors spatially separated on the order of 10 to 150 m. The potential back-azimuth directions are estimated from the coherent signals between the acoustic and vertical seismic data, via a propagation-induced phase shift of the seismoacoustic signal. A unique solution is then informed by the particle motion of the 3-component seismic station, which was previously found to be less accurate than the seismoacoustic-sensor method. We investigate the applicability of this technique to greater source-receiver distances, from 50-100 km and up to 400 km, which contains pressure waves with tropospheric and stratospheric ray paths, respectively. Specifically, we analyze seismoacoustic sources with ground truth from rocket motor fuel elimination events at the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR) as well as a 2020 rocket launch in Southern California. From these sources we observe evidence that while coherent signals can be seen from both sources on multiple seismoacoustic station pairs, the determined ground-coupled airwave back-azimuths are more complicated than results at more local scales. Our findings suggest more complex factors including incidence angle, coupling location, subsurface material, and atmospheric propagation effects need to be fully investigated before the ground-coupled airwave back-azimuth determination method can be applied or assessed at these further distances.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗