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At least 235 records · Page 13

Preliminary Seismic Yield Estimates of the July 1, 2025 Explosions near Esparto California

A series of large damaging explosions involving fireworks storage occurred near Esparto, Yolo County California on July 1, 2025. Three explosions were located and reported by the University of California Berkeley Seismology Laboratory (UCB/BSL) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Analysis of local distance (< 30 km) seismic recordings of the first blast indicates that there were actually three explosions with later blasts delayed by about 3 and 30 seconds. We measured the first arriving P-wave amplitudes on four of these events with good signal-to-noise ratios.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Toward improved urban earthquake monitoring through deep-learning-based noise suppression

Earthquake monitoring in urban settings is essential but challenging, due to the strong anthropogenic noise inherent to urban seismic recordings. Here, we develop a deep-learning-based denoising algorithm, UrbanDenoiser, to filter out urban seismological noise. UrbanDenoiser strongly suppresses noise relative to the signals, because it was trained using waveform datasets containing rich noise sources from the urban Long Beach dense array and high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) earthquake signals from the rural San Jacinto dense array. Application to the dense array data and an earthquake sequence in an urban area shows that UrbanDenoiser can increase signal quality and recover signals at an SNR level down to ~0 dB. Earthquake location using our denoised Long Beach data does not support the presence of mantle seismicity beneath Los Angeles but suggests a fault model featuring shallow creep, intermediate locking, and localized stress concentration at the base of the seismogenic zone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seismic Visibility of Eclogite in the Earth’s Upper Mantle—Implications From High Pressure‐Temperature Single‐Crystal Elastic Properties of Omphacite

Abstract Identifying and locating the geochemical and geophysical heterogeneities in the Earth’s interior is one of the most important and challenging tasks for the deep Earth scientists. Subducted oceanic crust metamorphizes into the dense eclogite in the upper mantle and is considered as a major cause of geochemical and geophysical heterogeneities in the deep Earth. In order to detect eclogitic materials inside the Earth, precise measurements of the high pressure‐temperature single‐crystal elasticity of major minerals in eclogite are thus exceedingly important. Omphacite, a Na,Al‐bearing clinopyroxene, constitutes up to 75 vol% of eclogite. In the present study, we performed the first high pressure‐temperature single‐crystal elasticity measurements of omphacite using Brillouin spectroscopy. Utilizing the finite‐strain approach, we obtained the following thermoelastic parameters for omphacite: K S0 ’ = 4.5(1), G 0 ’ = 1.53(5), ∂K S0 /∂ T = −0.029(5) GPa/K, ∂G 0 /∂ T = −0.013(5) GPa/K, with K S0 = 123(3) GPa, G 0 = 74(2) GPa, and ρ 0 = 3.34(1) g/cm 3 . We found that the seismic velocities of undeformed eclogite are similar to pyrolite at the depths of 200–300 and 410–500 km, thus eclogite is seismically invisible at these depths. Combined with the lattice‐preferred orientations of the omphacite in naturally deformed eclogites, we also modeled seismic anisotropy of eclogite at various pressure‐temperature conditions. A 10 km thick subducted eclogitic crust can result in ∼0.2 s shear wave splitting in the Earth’s upper mantle.

Hao, Ming↗

Integrating Atmospheric Specifications into Seismoacoustic Event Localization

This report investigates the integration of infrasound and seismic data to improve event localization accuracy, specifically focusing on a surface explosion at the Utah Training and Testing Range (UTTR). Utilizing the Seismoacoustic Bayesian Event Locator (SABEL) framework, we incorporated atmospheric specifications derived from Ground to Space (G2S) profiles to enhance celerity-range priors. Our analysis revealed that while the combination of infrasound and seismic observations significantly reduced localization uncertainty, challenges remained, particularly with returns at distances less than 200 km from the source and the influence of specific observations on location estimates. The results indicate that broader celerity distributions, such as those from Blom et al. (2020), facilitate better alignment with ground truth locations compared to narrower models. Overall, this work demonstrates the promise of seismoacoustic approaches in refining event localization and highlights the need for further exploration of celerity-range models to ensure reliable outcomes.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Prediction and Analysis of Utah FORGE Injection Activities using a Coupled Thermo-hydro-mechanical and Earthquake (THM+E) Modeling Workflow

A coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) numerical workflow that is capable of modeling seismic slip is critical for the successful development of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). By integrating key physical processes, this workflow enables accurate simulation of temperature and pressure diffusions, stress changes, and induced seismicity. As a result, it serves as a vital tool for predicting induced seismicity and optimizing reservoir stimulation strategies. The Utah FORGE (Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy) project, located near Milford, Utah, is a U.S. Department of Energy initiative aimed at advancing EGS technology. In April 2024, eight new stimulation stages (Stages 3R-10) were conducted in well 16A (injection well) subsequent to the first series of stimulation (Stages 1-3) performed in April, 2022. To monitor the induced seismicity, geophones were deployed in wells 58-32, 56-32, and 78B-32, while fiber optic cables were also installed in wells 16B, 78-32, and 78B-32 to collect microseismic data and detect frac hits Preliminary analyses of microseismic catalogs and fiber optic data suggest that the stimulated fractures in Stages 3R–6 closely align with that generated during Stage 3, indicating that the new stimulations were likely reactivating the previously stimulated fracture. To better understand the underlying process, a comprehensive modeling approach that can accurately capture thermal, hydrological, mechanical, and seismic responses is essential. In this work, we propose and utilize a coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical and earthquake (THM+E) simulation workflow to numerically investigate the stimulation activities on well 16A. The specific objective is to confirm whether the new stimulation stages (Stages 3R–6) reactivated fractures previously stimulated during Stage 3. For this purpose, we perform THM+E simulations individually for Stages 3, 3R, 4, and 5, incorporating the discrete fracture networks (DFNs) created by the plane-fitting technique based on the microseismic catalogs. The simulation workflow consists of two separate models: a THM model and an earthquake model, coupled in a one-way manner. Detailed descriptions of the workflow are provided in Section 3. Simulation results are presented in terms of injection pressure, permeability evolution, and predicted seismic catalogs, which are then compared with field data for further analyses. This report is structured as follows. In Section 2, we present detailed analyses of the field data and propose the hypothesis that the new stimulation stages (Stages 3R–6) were probably reactivating the previously stimulated fractures in Stage 3. In Section 3, we introduce the coupled THM+E workflow and the problem setup to validate our hypothesis, followed by the simulation results for each stage in Section 4. Meanwhile, discussions are included to analyze the model predictions and their comparison with field data. Lastly, we conclude the report and outline future plans in Section 5.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Seismic Tomographic Modeling of the Crust and Upper Mantle beneath Israel and the Middle East: Improved Resolution through Optimized Model Parameterization

Accurate regional seismic travel-time (RSTT) predictions rely on regional phases (e.g., Pg, Lg, Pn, Sn ) to account for 3D effects in the crust and upper mantle that are not captured by 1D models traditionally used for real-time location. The RSTT prediction model accounts for regional-scale crust and upper mantle structure globally by incorporating regional seismic phases into its travel-time calculations. Previous versions of the RSTT model have used a constant grid cell size of 1°. To improve the tomographic accuracy of recovering velocity structure at regional scales, we, in this study, perform data-driven grid refinement on the RSTT model down to a 0.125° grid (~14 km) in pursuit of two main goals: (1) to test the limits of RSTT capability and accuracy of determined velocity structure through variable grid refinement and (2) to image smaller structures in Israel and the Middle East and illuminate upper mantle dynamics operating in this complex tectonic area. We investigate the effects of model parameterization as grid cell size decreases and the trade-offs between recovered velocity structures. Our final dataset includes 4751 events and 499 stations that recorded 79,344 Pn and 7489 Pg . The variable grid refinement method allows recovery of finer-scale velocity structures and reduces travel-time residuals in areas with the highest data coverage. At smaller grid cell sizes, longer paths need to be upweighted to stabilize the inversion. Results illuminate tectonic features undefined in coarser grid-size models; in particular, we observe mantle perturbations related to the subduction zone around the Cyprian arc and crustal anomalies near the Dead Sea fault and throughout the Anatolian plate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Continuous surface-to-distributed acoustic sensor snapshots explain reactivation of individual natural fractures during an unconventional reservoir stimulation

ABSTRACT Fiber-optic sensing technologies allow petroleum engineering teams to detect hydraulic fracture interaction with boreholes during unconventional reservoir stimulation. In combination with high-repeatability seismic sources, the same distributed acoustic sensors (DASs) enable vertical seismic profiling (VSP) of the fracture evolution away from the boreholes. We discovered clear signatures of seismic scattering on activated fractures during nine days of continuous seismic monitoring of the fracturing stages at the Austin Chalk/Eagle Ford Field Laboratory. The present study applies a novel approach for quantitative analysis of the scattering events in terms of the evolution of the geometry and elastic stiffness of individual fractures. Our characterization strategy sequentially refines the fracture models: from a stack of 1D soft layers to 3D rectangular inclusions. First, we estimate the number of fracture locations and reflectivity using a modified sparse-spike deconvolution of the stacked VSP traces. The fracture set consists of five fractures spaced by 15–30 m with a reflectivity of approximately 1%. Then, we develop a scattering integral method to refine these estimates along with an inversion of the fracture top and bottom for each monitoring vintage. We find that, initially, some of the fractures are located above the monitoring fiber with the height of approximately 100 m. Then we integrate the seismic interpretation with the low-frequency DAS and pressure and microseismic monitoring to reconstruct the activation process of the fractures. Most likely, some of the natural fractures slowly grew downward to the monitoring fiber as a result of fluid injections in the stimulated well. This led to bright strain anomalies but did not trigger seismicity. The top of the fractures remained almost constant and were limited by a lithologic boundary/stress barrier. To our knowledge, this is the first time VSP data enabled tracking of the fracture evolution with such high spatial and temporal resolution, which was previously only available for crosswell surveys and at a much smaller scale.

Glubokovskikh, Stanislav↗

Model Card for WaveDenoiser

This study used STEAD to train and evaluate this model because STEAD is among the best benchmark datasets available for local to regional data. STEAD is a global dataset with over 1 million 60 s long seismic waveforms that originated from approximately 450,000 earthquakes and background noise captured by more than 2,500 seismic stations. Each waveform in STEAD was attached with metadata such as earthquake locations, station locations, and signal arrival times when available

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Preliminary analysis of the JAPE ground vehicle test data with an artificial neural network classifier

Remotely sensing and classifying military vehicles in a battlefield environment have been the source of much research over the past 20 years. The ability to know where threat vehicles are located is an obvious advantage to military personnel. In the past active methods of ground vehicle detection such as radar have been used, but with the advancement of technology to locate these active sensors, passive sensors are preferred. Passive sensors detect acoustic emissions, seismic movement, electromagnetic radiation, etc., produced by the target and use this information to describe it. Deriving the mathematical models to classify vehicles in this manner has been, and is, quite complex and not always reliable. However, with the resurgence of artificial neural network (ANN) research in the past few years, developing models for this work may be a thing of the past. Preliminary results from an ANN analysis to the tank signatures recorded at the Joint Acoustic Propagation Experiment (JAPE) at the US Army White Sands Missile Range, NM, in July 1991, are presented.

Larsen, Nathan F.↗

FY 2026 Midyear Report: Seismic Monitoring of Underground Vibration Sources Using Distributed Acoustic Sensing and Seismometers

Safeguards-relevant temporal changes in underground facilities can be observed using geophysical monitoring techniques. Seismic waves, in particular, provide valuable insights into subsurface activities and can serve as an important tool for detecting anomalous events that may indicate containment breaches at geological repositories. This midyear report summarizes ongoing efforts to automatically and rapidly detect and locate anomalous vibration signals that could be indicative of potential containment breaches. Previous work during FY25 focused on compiling continuous seismic datasets from two underground sites and developing a database of continuous waveforms and ground-truth event data derived from multiple sensing modalities. Building on this foundation, we are adapting anomaly detection and geolocation algorithms to explore methods for monitoring underground activities using two relatively low-maintenance sensing technologies: a dense surface geophone array deployed at the Pleasant Gap mine in Pennsylvania, and a three-dimensional fiber-optic cable array for distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) installed in the subsurface at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in South Dakota. This report summarizes work conducted during the first two quarters of FY26, during which we refined a dynamic power spectral density (PSD)-based detector, applied it independently to each geophone station, and then combined the per‑station detections with density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) to cluster events and produce spatial maps over a nine‑day interval. In addition, we outline plans for a field trial at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in New Mexico to compare traditional seismic monitoring approaches with DAS techniques and to evaluate the benefits of combined data analysis. Activities during the past two quarters have included the preparation and submission of a Field Test Plan to WIPP for approval, as well as submission to headquarters for review and feedback.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The 2017 Pohang, South Korea, Mw 5.4 main shock was either natural or triggered, but not induced

Understanding the cause of the November 2017 Pohang main shock is of considerable importance to the future of the geothermal industry because of its large magnitude compared to prior expectations based on case histories of other projects involving underground fluid injection. Of the three possibilities – induced, triggered or natural, “induced” can be ruled out based on the disproportionately large seismic moment of the main shock. Furthermore, whether natural or triggered, the source of seismic hazard at Pohang was tectonic strain accumulation, not fluid injection. Arguably, the most timely indicator of seismic hazard and risk in the environs of Pohang was the September 2016 Mw 5.4 Gyeongju earthquake, which was natural and located about 40 km south of Pohang along the same active fault system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Numerical Modeling of Anisotropic Elastic-Wave Sensitivity Propagation for Optimal Design of Time-Lapse Seismic Surveys

Reliable subsurface time-lapse seismic monitoring is crucial for many geophysical applications, such as enhanced geothermal system characterization, geologic carbon utilization and storage, and conventional and unconventional oil/gas reservoir characterization, etc. In this work, we develop an elastic-wave sensitivity propagation method for optimal design of cost-effective time-lapse seismic surveys considering the fact that most of subsurface geologic layers and fractured reservoirs are anisotropic instead of isotropic. For anisotropic media, we define monitoring criteria using qP- and qS-wave sensitivity energies after decomposing qP- and qS-wave components from the total elastic-wave sensitivity wavefield using a hybrid time- and frequency-domain approach. Geophones should therefore be placed at locations with significant qP- and qS-wave sensitivity energies for cost-effective time-lapse seismic monitoring in an anisotropic geology setting. Our numerical modeling results for a modified anisotropic Hess model demonstrate that, compared with the isotropic case, subsurface anisotropy changes the spatial distributions of elastic-wave sensitivity energies. Consequently, it is necessary to consider subsurface anisotropies when designing the spatial distribution of geophones for cost-effective time-lapse seismic monitoring. This finding suggests that it is essential to use our new anisotropic elastic-wave sensitivity modeling method for optimal design of time-lapse seismic surveys to reliably monitor the changes in subsurface reservoirs, fracture zones or target monitoring regions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Relocation of the 8 September 2023 High Atlas, Morocco, Earthquake Aftershock Sequence

The earthquake that occurred on 8 September 2023, with a magnitude of 6.8, was the most destructive earthquake event in Morocco in the past decade. This earthquake took place in the Al Haouz region, located in the western part of the High Atlas Mountain range. To better understand what caused and triggered this earthquake, the earthquake catalogs including P and S arrival times were collected from the Moroccan seismic network and combined with regional data from the International Seismological Centre. The mainshock and aftershocks were relocated by using iLoc, a state-of-the-art single-event location algorithm, and then by the multiple event location double-difference algorithm, hypoDD. The improved earthquake relocations using iLoc and the double-difference methods provide sharper lineation of seismicity and agree well with tomographic images of the earthquake zone. Finally, the seismicity distribution and the focal mechanism of the mainshock indicate that the earthquake sequence has occurred along the South Atlas fault system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Subtask 1.5 – CO2 Injection Monitoring with an Optimized Scalable, Automated, Semipermanent Seismic Array

The scalable, automated, semipermanent seismic array (SASSA) method is a flexible and relatively cost-effective surface geophysical method for regular time-lapse monitoring of the movement of injected carbon dioxide (CO2) in a reservoir for CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) or geologic CO2 storage operations. It has the advantages of a low-environmental-footprint while monitoring regions of a reservoir from the surface without the need for a regular grid distribution of receivers. Automated data collection is possible. As only time-lapse amplitude changes at the reservoir level due to CO2 movement within the reservoir are monitored, the turnaround time to deliver results from the SASSA method can be short, without the need for long, time-consuming data-processing workflows. As data is collected and processed, incremental information can be provided to the field operator. The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) conducted a SASSA field test from September 2018 to November 2020 in a portion of the Bell Creek Field in Montana, which implemented new CO2 EOR field activities during the study period. Lessons learned from a proof-of-concept study were incorporated to improve the data quality of the SASSA method and demonstrate the viability of the technology. The EERC implemented several enhancements to improve data quality, including 1) an iterative survey design, which allowed placing the receivers in strategic locations where the movement of the CO2 in the reservoir could be tracked with minimum interference by the cultural noise in the study area; 2) the use of powerful seismic sources in the form of surface orbital vibrators, and 3) data acquisition during optimal periods. History-matched reservoir simulation was performed to predict gas saturation and pressure response induced by CO2 injection in the study area. The results were compared with the SASSA-measured responses to CO2 injection as a partial validation technique. A match between the two methods was observed for most of the SASSA points predicted to have intersected a CO2 saturation change. The validated results provide confidence that the SASSA method can be used independently as a CO2 saturation monitoring technique. As data are collected and processed, incremental information can be provided to the field operator. The critical components of the SASSA workflow for a successful application of the method are the following: Iterative survey design with information about CO2 injection activities from the oilfield operator. A detailed CO2 injection plan is the key driver to select the strategic monitoring location of the SASSA sensors. After this information is incorporated in the initial distribution of sources and receivers in the study area, high-resolution satellite images are used to identify ground locations not affected by cultural noise sources, such as power lines, pipelines/flow lines, or roadways. In the next iteration of the survey design, a scouting trip to the study area is needed to understand more details of the noise sources identified in the previous step and the intensity of the field activities that can also generate noise during the monitoring. Integrating the information from the scouting trip into the survey design to select the optimum source and receiver locations is the final step. Noise attenuation. The variety of noise types during seismic monitoring of an oil field is enormous. Tailored noise characterization and processing at a node-by-node level can enhance the performance and sensitivity of the SASSA technique. Future advancements that could improve the efficiency and application of the SASSA technology include: Gaining a better understanding of the noise field produced by the seismic source to aid the choice of receiver location. Surface noise from the source can overwhelm the small signal changes due to CO2 that the SASSA method measures. Improved data-processing workflow to automatically analyze and adapt to dynamic noise conditions associated with industrial settings. This subtask was funded through the EERC–DOE Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE- FE0024233.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Basement Fault Activation before Larger Earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas

Oklahoma and Kansas experienced unprecedented seismic activity over the past decade due to earthquakes associated with unconventional hydrocarbon development. The modest natural seismicity and incomplete knowledge of the fault network in the region made it difficult to anticipate the locations of earthquakes with larger magnitudes (M w ≥ 4). Here, we show that monitoring of microearthquakes at regional scale using a pretrained neural phase picker and an earthquake relocation algorithm can illuminate unknown fault structures, and deliver information that can be synthesized for earthquake forecasting. We found that 80% of the larger earthquakes that occurred in the past decade could have been anticipated based on the spatial extent of the seismicity clusters that were formed before these earthquakes occurred. We also found that once a seismicity cluster with a length scale enough to host a larger earthquake was formed, there was a ~5% chance that it would host one or more larger earthquakes within a year. This probability is nearly an order of magnitude higher than one based on Gutenberg–Richter statistics and preceding seismicity. Applying our approach in practice can provide critical information on seismic hazards for risk management and regulatory decision making.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Geologic Characterization of the South Georgia Rift Basin for Source Proximal CO2 Storage

The project Geologic Characterization of the South Georgia Rift Basin for Source Proximal CO2 Storage is one of 9 site characterization projects that were implemented as part of ARRA (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act). Data from this project was used to improve resolution of data in NATCARB in the area of study. Data related to this study has already been incorporated in NATCARB Atlas. The South Carolina Research Foundation and partners evaluated the feasibility of CCS in the Jurassic/ Triassic (J / TR) saline formations of the buried Mesozoic South Georgia Rift (SGR) Basin that extends from South Carolina into Georgia. The J / TR sequence, based on preliminary assessment of limited geologic and geophysical data, appears to have both the appropriate areal extent and multiple horizons to permanently and safely store CO2 The presence of several igneous rock layers within the sequence may potentially provide adequate seals to prevent upward CO2 migration into the Coastal Plain aquifer systems. Approximately 81 kilometers of 2-D seismic reflection data were collected by Bay Geophysical, Inc. to explore a portion of the SGR located in southern Georgia. The 81 kilometers were divided into two lines approximately 40.5 kilometers each, with Line 1 intersecting Georgia well GGS 3457. Line 2 intersects Line 1 at the southern portion of Line 1 to maximize the extent of coverage away from GGS-3457 (a deep well drilled in the 1980s for oil and gas exploration). This well had a set of usable logs, including gamma and neutron logs that provided promising results related to CO2 storage. Results showed sandstone with porosity values greater than 10 percent and a thickness of 120 meters. The design of the seismic shot was to extrapolate information away from the well and to better define the extent of the SGR and the necessary reservoir and caprock for a successful CO2 injection. A numerical simulation model of CO2 Injection and migration was developed based on the geology log for the GGS-3457 well. The simulation model was used to investigate the feasibility of injecting 30 million metric tons of CO2 into SGR J / TA sediments and integrity of the diabase layers as seals to prevent CO2 migration.

2-D seismic↗

Seismic attenuation system for a nuclear reactor

A system for attenuating seismic forces includes a reactor pressure vessel containing nuclear fuel and a containment vessel that houses the reactor pressure vessel. Both the reactor pressure vessel and the containment vessel include a bottom head. Additionally, the system includes a base support to contact a support surface on which the containment vessel is positioned in a substantially vertical orientation. An attenuation device is located between the bottom head of the reactor pressure vessel and the bottom head of the containment vessel. Seismic forces that travel from the base support to the reactor pressure vessel via the containment vessel are attenuated by the attenuation device in a direction that is substantially lateral to the vertical orientation of the containment vessel.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Solid state convection models of lunar internal temperature

Thermal models of the Moon were made which include cooling by subsolidus creep and consideration of the creep behavior of geologic material. Measurements from the Apollo program on seismic velocities, electrical conductivity of the Moon's interior, and heat flux at two locations were used in the calculations. Estimates of 1500 to 1600 K were calculated for the temperature, and one sextillion to ten sextillion sq cm/sec were calcualted for the viscosity of the deep lunar interior.

Schubert, G.↗