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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Adaptive Computing and Multi-Fidelity Strategies for Control, Design and Scale-Up of Renewable Energy Applications

We describe our ongoing research in adaptive computing and multi-fidelity modeling strategies. Our goal is to use a combination of low- and high-fidelity simulation models to enable computationally efficient optimization and uncertainty quantification. We develop optimization formulations that take into account the compute resources currently available, which act as a constraint with regards to the fidelity level simulation we can run while maximizing information gain. These strategies are being implemented into a software framework with a generalized API allowing its application to a broad range of applications, from power grid stability and buildings control to material synthesis and biofuels processing. We will discuss a few examples from these applications that can benefit from this approach, especially when considering challenges arising in scaling up experiments and simulations.

adaptive computing↗
DOE OSTI2021

An economic assessment of behind-the-meter photovoltaics paired with batteries on the Hawaiian Islands.

Due to natural variability and uncertainty, the ever-increasing penetration of solar generation in Hawaii presents challenges to power grid operators to maintain reliable system operation. Demand response (DR) has the potential to be a cost-effective tool for Hawaii to reach its aggressive renewable energy goals while maintaining the reliability of power grids. The Hawaii Public Utilities Commission has approved the Hawaiian Electric Company's revised portfolio of DR programs. The companies have released a grid services purchase agreement and subscribed an initial tranche of load into their DR programs. This paper presents innovative analytical methods and comprehensive economic assessment for distributed photovoltaics (PV) paired with battery energy storage systems (BESSs) for two new DR programs, including fast frequency response and capacity grid service. Optimal dispatch and sizing methods are proposed for the paired system considering different tariff schedules and PV compensation programs across five islands. It was found that while the best resource configuration and potential economic benefits vary with tariff structure, a BESS paired with PV can be optimally dispatched to generate multiple value streams simultaneously. Compensation from DR programs is an important value stream to help increase the cost-effectiveness of the integrated system.

Battery energy storage system↗
DOE OSTI2021

Wind Plant Performance Prediction Benchmark Phase 1 (Technical Report)

Financial risk resulting from the uncertainty associated with developing, owning, and operating wind power plants remains a barrier to reducing the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). On average, modern wind power plants in the U.S. underperform their expected annual energy output by 3.5-4.5% , with many underperforming by over 10%. To compensate for this uncertainty, investors require a larger return on investment (ROI) and apply "knock-down" factors that mask much of the underlying sources of uncertainty. Wind energy projects thus have reduced access to low-cost capital. Furthermore, operating wind plants often take a simple approach to estimating operations & maintenance (O&M) costs (e.g. straight-line estimates based on similar plants), which can eat into profits. To overcome these issues, the wind industry must improve the models they use for estimating wind plant performance and operations. An industry consortium (IC) requested that the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) lead a Department of Energy (DOE) working group to benchmark the accuracy of wind power plant energy predictions against real operational data. The IC was also motivated by DOE and NREL's potential to characterize systematic energy underperformance, identify sources of uncertainty, and explore root causes. The Wind Plant Performance Prediction (WP3) project was created out of this request, and this report represents the successful completion of Phase 1 of the WP3 project. During the project, wind plant owners provided both pre-construction and operational data to NREL. The pre-construction data was provided to wind resource assessment (WRA) consultants so they could conduct energy yield assessments (EYA). NREL took all of the completed EYAs, along with the operational data, and conducted an operational assessment to benchmark the EYA results against actual operational data. Given the large amounts of sensitive data required for this effort, as well as historical opposition to sharing data within industry, successful completion of Phase 1 represents an unprecedented milestone for industry data sharing. To improve the accuracy and confidence of pre-construction EYAs, wind plant owners and investors need better, more certain, energy yield predictions. The WP3 Benchmark Project is an industry-driven response to this reality. For the first time, industry has taken the important step of working together at scale, sharing valuable operational data with DOE and NREL in order to investigate the sources of bias and uncertainty in these energy estimates. This IC provides wind plant preconstruction and operational data to NREL in an organized and documented fashion and provides guidance and feedback as needed. The IC also provides introspection of the design of experiment, key metrics of success, data challenges, analysis best practices, and quality of results.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

GPU-resident sparse direct linear solvers for alternating current optimal power flow analysis

Integrating renewable resources within the transmission grid at a wide scale poses significant challenges for economic dispatch as it requires analysis with more optimization parameters, constraints, and sources of uncertainty. This motivates the investigation of more efficient computational methods, especially those for solving the underlying linear systems, which typically take more than half of the overall computation time. In this paper, we present our work on sparse linear solvers that take advantage of hardware accelerators, such as graphical processing units (GPUs), and improve the overall performance when used within economic dispatch computations. We treat the problems as sparse, which allows for faster execution but also makes the implementation of numerical methods more challenging. We present the first GPU-native sparse direct solver that can execute on both AMD and NVIDIA GPUs. We demonstrate significant performance improvements when using high-performance linear solvers within alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) analysis. Furthermore, we demonstrate the feasibility of getting significant performance improvements by executing the entire computation on GPU-based hardware. Finally, we identify outstanding research issues and opportunities for even better utilization of heterogeneous systems, including those equipped with GPUs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Joint Resource Modeling and Assessment for Hybrid Distributed Solar and Wind Systems

The inherent variability and uncertainty in distributed energy resources can presents myriad challenges to the planning and operations of power systems. These risks are poised to become larger as the penetration of renewable energy sources rises in the power generation mix. Hybrid solar-wind energy systems are able to mitigate some of these risks by their complementary resource availability. Surface solar and wind fields are coupled and correlated in both space and time. Appropriately estimating the hybrid solar wind energy system requires simulating the spatio-temporal structure of these fields that can be produced for each time horizon. We introduce a novel joint spatio-temporal stochastic differential equation (SPDE) approach that captures the spatio-temporal dynamics of solar and wind fields and their joint dependency over a domain for each time step. In the case study on Colorado, we consider nonstationary three-level hierarchical spatio temporal models for both hourly solar irradiance data and wind speed data in Colorado. Dependence between the solar irradiance data and wind speed data is captured by a shared spatio-temporal random effect. Our approach performs well in terms of the prediction score criterion.

joint modeling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Policy support and technology development trajectory for renewable natural gas in the U.S.

Renewable natural gas (RNG) is a clean alternative to fossil natural gas, which can be used as transportation fuel, among other applications. This study projects the development trajectory of RNG and evaluates its impacts on the future U.S. transportation market using a hybrid computable general equilibrium model. This analysis considers various factors and uncertainties affecting RNG production, such as technology development, market conditions, competition with other advanced biofuels, and national and state policies. In 2050, RNG production will grow to 2.7 billion gallons (10 billion liters), mostly from swine manure, under current policy provisions. This will lead to a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 58.56 million metric tonne of CO 2e in 2050. Analysis of different technology cases finds RNG from animal manure to be predominant, while RNG from corn stover and cellulosic ethanol are less competitive. Furthermore, a high mandatory target of 1 billion gallons will drive RNG production higher by 8–18 %, while an extended 2 nd -generation biofuel production tax credit will mostly increase cellulosic ethanol production. The model also finds RNG production being affected by uncertainties in market conditions, such as GDP growth, fossil fuel prices, and oil and gas supply.

Biomethane↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification of a physics-informed model based on sparse identification of a Thermal Energy Distribution System

Integrated energy systems (IES)s are crucial for enhancing the economy and efficiency of power generation sources (e.g., nuclear energy) necessary to unleash American energy dominance. These systems can be integrated with thermal energy storage (TES) and intermittent renewable energies to optimize overall energy use, peak-load regulation, and demand-side responses. However, the stabilization of energy generation, transport, and utilization introduces operational complexities that exceed the challenges of managing each sub-component individually. Currently, though IESs rely on human operators for efficiency and stability, reducing human error risk and enhancing performance through automation is highly desirable. Recent advances at Idaho National Laboratory have demonstrated successful control of the Thermal Energy Distributed System (TEDS). However, the automatic control system depends on a deterministic Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics with Control (SINDyC) model, which are trained based on simulation data from physics-based simulations. Because of uncertainties in physics-based simulation, SINDyC model results in large discrepancies against experimental data and cannot be reliably used in automatic control. In this paper, we present an innovative approach to address these discrepancies by quantifying uncertainties and developing a more robust model. We first generated trajectories by using first-principles physics codes to encapsulate the experiment. Next, we trained thousands of models by randomly sampling these trajectories. We then collapsed all those models into one probabilistic SINDyC by fitting a multivariate Gaussian distribution onto the resulting coefficient’s distribution. Despite its simplicity, our approach successfully produced 95% confidence intervals that captured the experimental trajectories. It even did so with a higher probability and better U-pooling score across six of the seven relevant quantities of interest (QoIs), as compared to other classical approaches. In conclusion, ongoing research is focusing on generating new experimental trajectories to validate this approach, and on employing Bayesian calibration to refine parametric uncertainties and guide future model development efforts.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Robust Scheduling of Networked Microgrids for Economics and Resilience Improvement

The benefits of networked microgrids in terms of economics and resilience are investigated and validated in this work. Considering the stochastic unintentional islanding conditions and conventional forecast errors of both renewable generation and loads, a two-stage adaptive robust optimization is proposed to minimize the total operating cost of networked microgrids in the worst scenario of the modeled uncertainties. By coordinating the dispatch of distributed energy resources (DERs) and responsive demand among networked microgrids, the total operating cost is minimized, which includes the start-up and shut-down cost of distributed generators (DGs), the operation and maintenance (O&M) cost of DGs, the cost of buying/selling power from/to the utility grid, the degradation cost of energy storage systems (ESSs), and the cost associated with load shedding. The proposed optimization is solved with the column and constraint generation (C&CG) algorithm. The results of case studies demonstrate the advantages of networked microgrids over independent microgrids in terms of reducing total operating cost and improving the resilience of power supply.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Arbitrage and Capacity Firming in Coordination with Day-Ahead Bidding of a Hybrid PV Plant

A hybrid PV plant (HPP) combines a photovoltaic (PV) plant with a battery energy storage system (BESS), which is considered a promising step towards the future of renewable power plants by the U.S. Department of Energy. When the renewable penetration reaches a significant level, a hybrid PV plant can bid in as a controllable thermal plant in the future electricity market. In this study, a bidding and BESS scheduling model is proposed for the HPP. The robust optimization (RO) technique has been utilized to identify the worst-case scenario of uncertainties during the bidding process. To address the overly conservative issue of the single-stage RO, we have decoupled the BESS schedule for arbitrage and PV capacity firming by a two-stage RO formulation. By comparing the output of single-stage RO and two-stage RO, the two-stage RO bids and schedules in a more aggressive manner, which increases the income of HPP. Also, the penalty of under-generation is considered in our model so that the day-ahead bidding decision and arbitrage schedules can be adjusted based on the potential UNDER-GENERATION penalty. Because the proposed model is non-convex and contains multi-stages, the Column-and-Constraint Generation (C&CG) algorithm is applied to the model as the solution. The proposed model has shown better economic performance compared to a state-of-art single-stage bidding method in case studies.

BESS scheduling↗
DOE OSTI2020

Linear Approximation Line Pack Model for Integrated Electricity and Natural Gas Systems OPF

With the increasing installation of renewable energy electricity generation capacity, the penetration of natural gas fired generation is also substantailly increasing in power systems due to their fast response capability to mitigate system variability and uncertainty. The dependencies between the electricity system and the natural gas system are becoming more important to maintain the reliability of both systems. In integrated electricity and natural gas systems (IEGSs) operations, the nonlinearity of the natural gas system brings challenges to the system operators. In this paper, the IEGSs optimal power flow (OPF) model is proposed that includes the line pack of the gas system via linear approximation. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed model can obtain optimal solutions efficiently that are comparable in accuracy as the nonlinear line pack model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

BayesMT: A Probabilistic Bayesian Framework for the Seismic Moment Tensor

Moment tensors (MTs) have long been used in earthquake and explosion source analysis, and there has been a renewed interest in how they can inform us about the seismic source, particularly in the geophysical monitoring community due to its application in event identification and yield analysis. However, parameter uncertainties in seismic MT inversion are rarely available. The inverse procedure often does not quantify MT model errors such as event location, data noise and Earth model that are essential for estimating solution robustness. To address this need, we propose to adopt the Bayesian probabilistic framework to incorporate uncertainties in MT inversions. In this study, we present the theoretical background of a probabilistic Bayesian framework for MT inversion accounting for model and measurements errors and illustrate the implementation of the method using a synthetic example.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Establishing a Baseline for Global Geothermal Drilling Rates

Geothermal is a promising source of renewable energy with almost zero emissions. However, there remains untapped geothermal potential around the world. This is largely because geothermal projects have high development costs and high resource-value uncertainty, and returns on initial investments can be slow to materialize. Increasing drilling efficiency of geothermal wells is one way to decrease development costs, as drilling accounts for up to 50% of the upfront costs of a geothermal power project. Currently, little quantitative information exists about how fast geothermal drilling occurs on a global scale. This paper was originally intended to be an extension of Frone and Boyd's 2018 report on geothermal drilling rates in California and Nevada. Our project includes global data and considers additional measures, such as flat time. Data for the project was limited to published papers and drilling reports that are publicly available online. The goal of our project was to establish a baseline geothermal drilling rate that is representative of current global geothermal drilling practices can be used to gauge the impact of future improvements in geothermal drilling technology. We recorded the number of days from beginning to end of a project, the number of days spent drilling, and the number of days considered to be flat time. We found the average global rate at which a drilling project is completed (including non-drilling activities) to be 160 ft/day, and the average drilling rate (including only time during which active drilling occurred) to be 360 ft/day. Our data shows no clear trend in rate change from 2000 to 2017 and significant variability in drilling rates between countries and within countries.

baseline↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America

We examine a 25 km resolution climate model dataset to evaluate how regional climate change impacts solar and wind energy under a high-emission scenario. Our study considers the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region, which covers the western United States and southwestern Canada, focusing specifically on locations with existing solar and wind infrastructure. First, we conduct a historical model comparison of solar and wind energy capacity factors to highlight model uncertainties across the study area. Using future climate projections, we then assess the seasonal patterns of solar and wind capacity factors for three timeframes: historical, mid-century, and end of century. Additionally, we estimate the frequency of solar and wind resource droughts during these periods for the entire WECC and its five operational subregions, finding that certain subregions are more susceptible to energy droughts due to limited renewable resources. Finally, we present day-ahead capacity factor forecasts to support energy storage planning and provide estimates of offshore wind energy capacity within the WECC. Our results indicate that offshore wind capacity factors are nearly twice as high as onshore values, with less seasonal variation, which suggests that offshore wind could offer a more consistent renewable energy supply in the future.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2023

Microgrid energy scheduling under uncertain extreme weather: Adaptation from parallelized reinforcement learning agents

Microgrids are useful solutions for integrating renewable energy resources and providing seamless green electricity to minimize carbon footprint. In recent years, extreme weather events happened often worldwide and caused significant economic and societal losses. Such events bring uncertainties to the microgrid energy scheduling problems and increase the challenges of microgrid operation. Traditional optimization approaches suffer from the inaccuracy of the uncertain microgrid model and the unseen events. Existing reinforcement learning (RL) - based approaches are also hampered by the limited generalization and the increasing computational burden when stochastic formulations are required to accommodate the uncertainties. This paper proposes a new parallelized reinforcement learning (PRL) method based on the probabilistic events to handle the microgrid energy uncertainties. Specifically, several local learning agents are employed to interact with pertinent microgrid environments in a distributed manner and report outcomes to the global agent, which will optimize microgrid energy resources online during extreme events. The stochastic microgrid energy optimization problem is reformulated to include all possible scenarios with probabilities. The advantage estimate functions of learning agents are designed with a backward sweep to transfer the outcomes to the value function updating process. Two simulation studies, stochastic optimization and online testing, are performed to compare with several existing RL approaches. Results substantiate that the proposed PRL method can achieve up to 20% optimization performance improvement with 4 and 28 times less computation cost than Q-learning with experience replay and multi-agent Q-learning approaches, respectively.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

A multi-scale time-series dataset with benchmark for machine learning in decarbonized energy grids

The electric grid is a key enabling infrastructure for the ambitious transition towards carbon neutrality as we grapple with climate change. With deepening penetration of renewable resources, the reliable operation of the electric grid becomes increasingly challenging. In this paper, we present PSML, a first-of-its-kind open-access multi-scale time-series dataset, to aid in the development of data-driven machine learning (ML)-based approaches towards reliable operation of future electric grids. The dataset is synthesized from a joint transmission and distribution electric grid to capture the increasingly important interactions and uncertainties of the grid dynamics, containing power, voltage and current measurements over multiple spatio-temporal scales. Using PSML, we provide state-of-the-art ML benchmarks on three challenging use cases of critical importance to achieve: (i) early detection, accurate classification and localization of dynamic disturbances; (ii) robust hierarchical forecasting of load and renewable energy; and (iii) realistic synthetic generation of physical-law-constrained measurements. We envision that this dataset will provide use-inspired ML research in safety-critical systems, while simultaneously enabling ML researchers to contribute towards decarbonization of energy sectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty in inventories for life cycle assessment: State‐of‐the‐art, challenges, and new technologies

Uncertainty is a critical factor that can hinder the quality and potential applications of life cycle assessment (LCA) results. A prominent source of uncertainty stems from the life cycle inventory (LCI) data. Various methodologies exist to estimate the uncertainty associated with LCI data, primarily based on the widely used structured pedigree matrix approach or the computationally intensive Monte Carlo simulation. This perspective review explores how new technologies (e.g., computational algorithms and data collection methods) from data science and related fields can contribute to identifying, quantifying, and reducing uncertainty in LCI modeling. A brief overview of the sources of uncertainty in LCI modeling and how they are addressed in current LCA practice is provided. Additionally, several new technologies are identified, and the potential benefits of their implementation in reducing uncertainties in LCI modeling are discussed. This perspective review concludes by identifying potential areas that require further development for these technologies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying Turbine-Level Risk to Golden Eagles Using a High-Fidelity Updraft Model and a Stochastic Behavioral Model

To minimize the effects of wind farms on Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) populations while enabling sustainable development of renewable energy resources, it is important to understand how eagles interact with atmospheric flows, terrain features, and anthropogenic structures. Models that predict migratory flight paths provide one tool that helps us grasp how the location of wind farms may influence interactions and impacts on migrating Golden Eagles. The current state-of-the-art in predicting migratory flight paths uses a deterministic fluid-flow analogy to predict eagle trajectory using only an orographic updraft potential computed from topographical features. This model does not take into account variables, such as thermal updrafts and time varying atmospheric conditions that are known to influence migratory behavior. In this work, we improve on the model with the objective of developing tools that advance our understanding of how atmospheric flows and terrain features affect migratory eagle behavior and their interactions with wind farms. Specifically, we 1) incorporate both orographic and thermal updraft information in simulating eagle flight paths; 2) incorporate stochasticity into eagle travel patterns to better capture the influence of exogenous factors on, and the inherent stochasticity of eagle behavior; 3) consider spatio-temporal atmospheric data at wind-farm-scale when computing updraft potential; and 4) account for how atmospheric conditions and the direction of migration change seasonally and how these changes affect eagle migratory flight behavior. We tested the model using a 50km by 50km region with 50 m resolution in the western United States. We simulated 900 independent, probabilistic eagle tracks during southerly and northerly migration, assuming eagles solely rely on orographic updrafts. The preliminary results indicate that the inclusion of finer resolution atmospheric data allows for the inclusion of realistic conditions that an eagle experiences. The stochasticity in eagle tracks provides a platform to include uncertainty in eagle decision making and help produce robust eagle presence maps. We will deploy updraft and downdraft velocities computed using a high-fidelity, wind farm scale, computational fluid dynamics solver under development at National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This work is a first step in the development of a predictive and generalizable eagle behavior model at the wind farm scale that does not rely on empirical data collection. Although the current model is intended for migratory eagles, we will extend and refine this model to inform the development of additional behavioral modes, including resident eagle behavior. This modeling approach improves our ability to understand eagle use of the landscape at a fine scale, and it is our hope that this work will ultimately help advance strategies that minimize the impact of wind development on Golden Eagle populations.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗