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At least 235 records · Page 13

Quantifying the Protectability of Power Systems for Restoration Applications

With the increasing availability of distributed energy resources, controllable switches, and advanced metering infrastructure, distribution systems are exploring opportunities for improving system reliability through fault location, isolation, and service restoration. During permanent outages, this requires islanding microgrids and/or reconfiguration of the feeders; however, it is critical to assess the protection of the islanded/reconfigured networks before transition because the rated load and fault current conditions change. This paper presents a novel “protectability” metric that quantifies the protection performance and allows the operators to compare the effectiveness of the protection between two or more possible reconfiguration and islanding approaches. We present the mathematical formulation and assumptions for the metric. Multiple configurations of the Electric Power Research Institute J1 feeder, both in grid-connected and weak-sourced islanded operation, are used to demonstrate the performance of the metric with reference to overcurrent protection. Takeaways for future studies on system planning integration are provided.

distributed energy resources↗

Efficient and Reliable Power Takeoff for Ocean Wave Energy Harvesting

The project goal is to significantly improve the current ocean wave energy harvesting through innovative Power Take-off (PTO) design, advanced power electronics, and novel wave capture structures. The objective of the project is to design and demonstrate system-agnostic components for application across multiple MHK systems, and complete component designs, build scaled prototypes, and perform testing and analysis for metric validation of 25% increase in component rating/per unit cost and 50% reduction in failure rate. The major innovation of the PTO is the Mechanical Motion Rectifier (MMR) mechanism that rectifies the bi-directional oscillatory motion of the input from waves into a steady unidirectional rotation output to directly drive the electrical generator. Through this mechanism, the efficiency and the fatigue life of the PTO can be significantly improved to benefit the energy absorption and lifespan of the wave energy converters (WEC). During the period of performance, the component and system design are completed, the scaled prototypes are developed and performed testing. It is validated that the 25% increase in a component rating/per unit cost. The 50% reduction in failure rate is not directly validated by experiments, however, it can be explained qualitatively with analysis. Besides, 8 journal articles, 13 conference proceedings, 1 patent, 3 Master thesis and two Ph.D. dissertations are published based on the work related to this project. The list of all the publications can be found at the end of the project as an appendix. Over 30 students and postdocs were trained through this project. Three prototypes of 100W and 500W WECs and 10KW PTO were designed, built, and tested in ocean wave tank and using the NREL dynamometer. This project demonstrated 50-80% PTO efficiency, 90-98% power electronics efficiency, up to 66% capture width ratio in irregular waves, and 34% overall efficiency in regular waves.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Thermal Integration of Advanced Nuclear Reactors with a Reference Refinery, Methanol Synthesis, and a Wood Pulp Plant (Rev.1)

The present report is intended to provide process flow diagrams (PFDs) and energy and mass balance data sheets for a U.S. industrial sector subset with which nuclear heat and power could be integrated—a subset that includes the oil refining, methanol and pulp and paper industries. Coupling options for integrating nuclear energy into these industries are quantitatively outlined for reference systems, and future work will extend this analysis in greater detail. Opportunities for integrating small modular nuclear reactors (SMNRs) were investigated for each of the industrial process configurations. Aspen HYSYS and Cycle-Tempo models for a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor were developed to evaluate the proposed integration. This introductory evaluation provides a general description and assessment of the operating principles, reactor coolant core outlet temperature, and reactor size to be integrated with industry. The industrial processes of oil refining and the production of methanol, pulp and paper were simulated by using Aspen HYSYS, Aspen Plus, and the PRELIM (Petroleum Refinery Life Cycle Inventory Model) tool to develop process details. Cycle-Tempo models then extend the process modeling results to obtain net energy demands (e.g., heat, steam, and electricity) when accounting for process steam and waste heat recovery. This information is intended to foster the analysis of integrating an SMNR to decarbonize industrial facilities. The SMNR would provide reliable, competitive, and sustainable clean energy while reducing carbon emissions and other environmental impacts, such as water withdrawals, consumption, and contamination. The refining industry, exhibited in Figure ES1, is a leading consumer of fossil -fuel-based heat, power, and hydrogen in the U.S. industrial sector, generating over 164 million metric tons (MMT) of CO 2 emissions in 2023. The overall mass and energy pertaining to a generalized complex refinery in the United States is reflected in Figure ES1, along with energy metrics regarding integration with a nuclear power plant (NPP). Data sheets were developed to indicate the energy requirements for the overall refinery and each refinery process. The data sheet for the overall refinery is shown in Table ES2.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Modeling Framework for Data Center

This chapter highlights the critical need for advanced modeling of data centers due to their rapidly increasing energy consumption and impact on grid reliability. Driven by the demand for AI applications, data centers are projected to consume a significant portion of US energy by 2028, putting stress on an already challenged power grid. The chapter emphasizes the importance of "fast" time-scale models to understand the dynamic interactions between data centers and the grid, especially given the rapid power fluctuations of AI workloads. It outlines a modeling framework that includes both offline and real-time EMT domain simulations, detailing the necessary representations for various components like utility interfaces, transformers, IT loads, UPS, cooling loads, Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), generators, protection systems, and higher-level control systems. While standard simulation tools like PSCAD offer basic models, custom development is often required to accurately capture the unique and fast-changing behaviors of modern data centers. The chapter also discusses key metrics and test cases for validating these models, focusing on transient load responses, protection relay coordination, and demand flexibility. Finally, it addresses the challenges of modeling large-scale data centers, such as computational complexity and the trade-off between model fidelity and practicality, suggesting hybrid modeling approaches as a solution. The overarching goal is to create a robust framework that helps assess data center impacts on grid stability, identify vulnerabilities, and inform the development of standards for reliable integration of these large loads into the bulk power system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Evaluating Supply Prioritization Strategies for Risk-Informed Decision Making in an Arbitrary Gas Network

Supply disruptions and infrastructure failures in natural gas networks present critical challenges to energy reliability and risk-informed planning. This study evaluates two supply prioritization strategies, Maximum Delivery Prioritization (MDP) and Demand-Based Prioritization (DBP), within an arbitrary natural gas network under conditions of supply shortage. Model performance under both strategies is assessed in response to node and edge failure using demand satisfaction metrics, system-wide and localized dependency scores, and geographic information system (GIS)-based spatial analysis. Results show that DBP better preserves supply for high-demand nodes, while MDP offers broader coverage. The underlying network topology plays a critical role in shaping prioritization outcomes. Integrated GIS visualization enhances the interpretability of vulnerability assessments, revealing structurally critical components and localized vulnerabilities. The proposed framework supports scalable, data-driven decision-making for infrastructure planners and engineers, enabling improved disruption recovery and efficiency in constrained natural gas networks. These insights contribute to the development of more robust energy systems capable of withstanding stress and disruptions.

Peterson, Steven [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000287672998)↗

A Methodology to Evaluate the Grid Reliability Impact of Oscillations Induced by Large Loads

The rapid growth of hyperscale AI data centers is bringing renewed attention to the reliability risk that sustained forced oscillations pose to bulk power systems, with cyclic computational workloads emerging as a new forcing source. Unlike the broadband, stochastic disturbances from traditional industrial loads such as arc furnaces, AI training and inference facilities can inject large active power swings concentrated at specific frequencies over extended durations - characteristics that existing grid planning practices do not account for. While the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has recognized this gap and called for system-level studies of large load interconnections, no standardized methodology exists to screen, simulate, and quantify these risks at the planning stage. This report presents the Risk Assessment Tool for Large Load-induced Events (RATLLE), a Python-based, publicly available script suite developed at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to evaluate bulk power system reliability risks from data center-induced oscillations. RATLLE implements a three-module workflow: a screening module that identifies vulnerable interconnection locations and excitable system modes; a simulation module that models cyclic data center load behavior using a commercial positive sequence simulation platform; and an analysis module that computes risk metrics and generates interactive visualization dashboards. The risk metrics, formulated around simulation observables, map oscillation impacts to a three-stage severity scale spanning latent equipment fatigue through imminent cascading failure. The methodology is demonstrated on two Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system models: a publicly available 240-bus reduced representation and a detailed 2031 Heavy Winter planning case. Case studies illustrate that even modest 50 MW forced oscillations at resonant frequencies can produce wide-area power swings, N-1 security constraint violations, and cascading generator trips through protection actions - outcomes that would not occur under normal operating conditions without oscillations present. The results underscore the need for standardized oscillation impact assessment in large load interconnection studies and provide a reproducible, extensible framework for utilities to adopt or customize within their existing planning workflows.

Biswas, Shuchismita↗

An Integrated Assessment of a G3 GMD Event on Large-Scale Power Grids: From Magnetometer Data to Geomagnetically Induced Current Analysis

Solar activities can cause geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) that give rise to geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) which may compromise the reliability of the power system. In order to build more reliable models representing GMD interactions with the power grid, the power system’s detailed electrical model must be considered along with fluctuations in the earth’s magnetic and induced surface electric fields. Here, this study investigates the impact of incorporating spatially varying magnetic fields into surface electric field models on GMD risk metrics. A spatially independent magnetic field model and a spatially varying model are compared through simulations. To perform this analysis, the earth’s magnetic field disturbances are transformed into surface electric fields using respective one-dimensional earth conductivity models. Then, the modeling impact of these electric fields is studied using a 2,000-bus grid for Texas and a 25,000-bus grid for the northeast and mid- Atlantic regions of the United States. Simulation results reveal that the inclusion of spatially varying magnetic fields results in considerable differences in GMD risk metrics, highlighting the importance of accounting for spatial variability when assessing GMD risks in the power system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Automated, high-accuracy classification of textured microstructures using a convolutional neural network

Crystallographic texture is an important descriptor of material properties but requires time-intensive electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) for identifying grain orientations. While some metrics such as grain size or grain aspect ratio can distinguish textured microstructures from untextured microstructures after significant grain growth, such morphological differences are not always visually observable. This paper explores the use of deep learning to classify experimentally measured textured microstructures without knowledge of crystallographic orientation. A deep convolutional neural network is used to extract high-order morphological features from binary images to distinguish textured microstructures from untextured microstructures. The convolutional neural network results are compared with a statistical Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests with traditional morphological metrics for describing microstructures. Results show that the convolutional neural network achieves a significantly improved classification accuracy, particularly at early stages of grain growth, highlighting the capability of deep learning to identify the subtle morphological patterns resulting from texture. The results demonstrate the potential of a convolutional neural network as a tool for reliable and automated microstructure classification with minimal preprocessing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF RISK ANALYSIS TOOLKIT FOR PLANT RESOURCE OPTIMIZATION

This paper presents the development of methods and tools that are being designed to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedules and optimal maintenance postures for plant components) in a manner that is more cost effective than current approaches and makes better use of available component health and cost data. These methods include both data- and model-based optimization methods. Model-based optimization methods directly include reliability and cost models to determine an optimal plant operational strategy. We consider gradient-based and evolutionary (based on genetic algorithms) optimization methods. The second class of methods target more specific use cases (e.g., project schedule optimization) and are not based on reliability models directly, but they require specific component reliability and cost data. This class of methods is based on variants of the knapsack problem with an aim to determine an optimal project schedule that maximizes the overall NPV. This paper also presents multi-objective methods designed to identify an optimal maintenance posture based on a Pareto frontier analysis. Rather than dictating the “right” tradeoff (i.e., identify the absolute best posture), we show how it is possible to perform a trade space exploration approach (i.e., identify value and costs of several postures and let the analysis account for desired value and cost metrics). This is performed by identifying maintenance postures that maximize value (e.g., system availability) and minimize operational costs, i.e., the Pareto frontier in a value-cost trade space. For all these methods we present detailed applicative examples that show their validity from a decision-making perspective.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

HydroBio: Hydropower Capacity and Freshwater Biodiversity in Conterminous United States Sub-basins

This dataset summarizes existing and potential hydropower capacity and freshwater biodiversity at the sub-basin level throughout the conterminous United States (CONUS). It contains descriptive information regarding each sub-basin (e.g., 8-digit hydrologic unit code identifier, name, states, and size) along with sub-basin-level summaries of: 1) existing hydropower capacity (MW), 2) potential nominal non-powered dam (NPD) capacity (MW), 3) potential capacity of new stream reach development (NSD) (MW), and 4) freshwater biodiversity, including the total richness of fish, crayfish, and mussels and metrics that account for how rare and threatened those species tend to be. Hydropower data were obtained from Oak Ridge National Laboratory data resources (Existing Hydropower Assets, Non-Powered Dam Technical Potential, and New Stream Reach Development). Freshwater biodiversity data were obtained from NatureServe. Sub-basin characteristic information was obtained from the United States Geological Survey. Additionally, long data that provide lists of unique elements within each sub-basin for each constituent data resource (e.g., NatureServe, Existing Hydropower Assets) are provided to enhance dataset utility for users. The dataset provides, for the first time, a national-level assessment of existing and potential hydropower capacity in the context of freshwater biodiversity and is a valuable resource for stakeholders tasked with providing affordable, reliable energy to the American public while maintaining or enhancing invaluable freshwater resources. The dataset contains six data files in comma separated (*.csv) format that are within a zipped file.

Bozeman, Bryan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗

KIPM Detector Characterization in QUIET

Kinetic Inductance Phonon‑Mediated (KIPM) detectors are superconducting microwave resonators that sense energy depositions in the substrate through a transient shift in their resonant frequency. In this work, I installed new devices in the QUIET cryogenic facility and used a network analyzer to drive them across a range of power levels. At each setting, I measured the transmitted signal and fit it to a simple notch‑filter model, allowing us to extract key performance metrics. Despite the increased noise at low power, the model consistently captured the resonance behavior. I first measured the resonance parameters as a function of RF drive power, then repeated the measurement across a range of temperatures to test whether the device behaved like an MKID. While the notch-filter fits captured the resonance reliably, the observed temperature dependence did not match the expected MKID signature — indicating that these first in-house fabricated chips are not yet functioning as true MKIDs. Overall, this reframes our work as a study of resonance parameter extraction and identification, pointing towards future iterations of device design and fabrication to get the true MKID response.

Savitala, Akash [U. Washington, Seattle (main); Fe↗

Comfort and Safety Metrics to Evaluate Customer Centric Resilience Enhancement Strategies

As the coincident events of extreme weather and major power outages continue to rise there is an increased need to implement resilience solutions. Many of these solutions are customer-centric, requiring the flexibility of demand, and many of the standard economic evaluations of these solutions do not include the benefits of resilience that are not easily quantified and monetized. Indoor air temperature has a large impact on the comfort and safety of building occupants during an extreme weather event. This work proposes metrics that can be used to compare the performance of resilience solutions in the context of comfort and safety.

Cost benefit analysis, Demand Side Management, Pow↗

Error metrics for partially coherent wave fields

Lensless imaging methods that account for partial coherence have become very common in the past decade. However, there are no metrics in use for comparing partially coherent light fields, despite the widespread use of such metrics to compare fully coherent objects and wave fields. Here, we show how reformulating the mean squared error and Fourier ring correlation in terms of quantum state fidelity naturally generalizes them to partially coherent wave fields. We report these results fill an important gap in the lensless imaging literature and will enable quantitative assessments of the reliability and resolution of reconstructed partially coherent wave fields.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Sensitivity of Optical Satellites to Estimate Windthrow Tree-Mortality in a Central Amazon Forest

Windthrow (i.e., trees broken and uprooted by wind) is a major natural disturbance in Amazon forests. Images from medium-resolution optical satellites combined with extensive field data have allowed researchers to assess patterns of windthrow tree-mortality and to monitor forest recovery over decades of succession in different regions. Although satellites with high spatial-resolution have become available in the last decade, they have not yet been employed for the quantification of windthrow tree-mortality. Here, we address how increasing the spatial resolution of satellites affects plot-to-landscape estimates of windthrow tree-mortality. We combined forest inventory data with Landsat 8 (30 m pixel), Sentinel 2 (10 m), and WorldView 2 (2 m) imagery over an old-growth forest in the Central Amazon that was disturbed by a single windthrow event in November 2015. Remote sensing estimates of windthrow tree-mortality were produced from Spectral Mixture Analysis and evaluated with forest inventory data (i.e., ground true) by using Generalized Linear Models. Field measured windthrow tree-mortality (3 transects and 30 subplots) crossing the entire disturbance gradient was 26.9 ± 11.1% (mean ± 95% CI). Although the three satellites produced reliable and statistically similar estimates (from 26.5% to 30.3%, p < 0.001), Landsat 8 had the most accurate results and efficiently captured field-observed variations in windthrow tree-mortality across the entire gradient of disturbance (Sentinel 2 and WorldView 2 produced the second and third best results, respectively). As expected, mean-associated uncertainties decreased systematically with increasing spatial resolution (i.e., from Landsat 8 to Sentinel 2 and WorldView 2). However, the overall quality of model fits showed the opposite pattern. We suggest that this reflects the influence of a relatively minor disturbance, such as defoliation and crown damage, and the fast growth of natural regeneration, which were not measured in the field nor can be captured by coarser resolution imagery. Our results validate the reliability of Landsat imagery for assessing plot-to-landscape patterns of windthrow tree-mortality in dense and heterogeneous tropical forests. Satellites with high spatial resolution can improve estimates of windthrow severity by allowing the quantification of crown damage and mortality of lower canopy and understory trees. However, this requires the validation of remote sensing metrics using field data at compatible scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting Initial Trans-Membrane Pressure for Optimized Operations in UF Unit Using Random Forest

With the growing scarcity of freshwater, innovative process design mechanisms like Reverse Osmosis (RO) are increasingly gaining attention among water treatment utilities to address the rising demand. Ensuring reliable water production necessitates efficient resource utilization, minimizing downtime in (ultra-filtration) UF systems. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) have enabled the development of accurate data-driven models for Model Predictive Control (MPC), often requiring minimal prior knowledge of underlying physical processes. In this study, we present predictive regression models based on Random Forest (RF) and Auto-Regressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial Trans-Membrane Pressure (TMP) for each filtration cycle in data generated by Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) systems. The proposed RF-based model demonstrates superior performance compared to baseline methods, including historical mean, Last Observation Carried Forward (LOCF), and naïve AR models, across various forecasting horizons in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) metric. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent covariates across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is studied for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches across increasing forecast horizons. Accurate prediction of initial TMP is critical for optimizing RO operations, as it enables the development of robust modelling frameworks by accurately estimating membrane fouling trends, thereby enhancing process efficiency and long-term reliability. The demonstrated efficacy of the RF-based approach highlights its potential as a tool for real-time decision-making in water treatment systems, paving the way for advanced process optimization and sustainable water resource management.

Mukherjee, Subrata [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000309930338)↗

Independent Fuel Property Effects of Fuel Volatility on Low Temperature Heat Release and Fuel Autoignition (Final Report)

This Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) project between Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and Shell Global Solutions (Shell) was initiated as part of a Directed Funding Opportunity (DFO) call for proposals from the Co-Optimization of Fuels and Engines (Co-Optima) initiative. Shell had observed that volatile fuels suppress low temperature heat release (LTHR) more than expected based on conventional gasoline autoignition metrics: research octane number (RON) and motor octane number (MON). The role of LTHR contributes to autoignition phenomena for both boosted spark ignition (BSI) and advanced compression ignition (ACI) combustion modes. ACI combustion modes are applicable to large engines in the hard-to-electrify applications such as off-road, rail, and marine. Thus, having a reliable understanding of autoignition phenomena, including being able to accurately account for the effects of fuel volatility, is particularly important as new synthetic and bio-fuel compositions are considered.This CRADA project aimed to test the hypothesis that the decreased LTHR is due to preferential evaporation of multicomponent fuels when using direct injection (DI) fueling technology, creating composition and reactivity stratification. A custom set of fuels was designed and blended to test this hypothesis by Shell, with experimental engine studies at ORNL and engine combustion modeling by ANL. However, the initial experimental findings did not show the expected effect of fuel volatility suppressing LTHR. Instead, the LTHR propensity observed was independent of the fuel volatility. Due to the unexpected experimental result, the remainder of the experimental effort was redirected to study the effect of fuel volatility on emissions under spark-ignited cold-start conditions. However, as with the LTHR experiments, the cold start effort did not show a meaningful effect of fuel volatility on cold start emissions. Meanwhile, improved engine CFD models have been developed for both LTHR and cold start operations for the Shell fuels with different volatilities. While the simulation efforts were not pursued further due to the insignificant effects of fuel volatility as shown in experiments, the models developed can be easily retooled for off-road, rail, and marine applications.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗