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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Complete Performance Comparison Between the Optimized Image Construction Algorithm (U-MBIR) and the Existing Reconstruction Algorithm for Detecting Defects and Damage in Concrete

Reinforced concrete (RC) is a composite material subjected to mechanical, thermal, and chemical loads throughout its service life. Because of these external stressors and the susceptibility of RC structural members to shrinkage and microcracking, the material degrades throughout its life cycle. This deterioration can lead to a decrease in member capacity and, ultimately, poses a threat to the structural integrity. Thus, it is crucial that the damage caused by aging and degradation be monitored and assessed at regular intervals throughout the material’s service life. Since coring of the material is typically not feasible for in-service structural systems, non-destructive evaluation (NDE) methodologies are used to assess remaining structural capacity. NDE methods enable surface and subsurface examination without damaging or degrading the medium. Moreover, RC is a critical component of nuclear power plants; thus, its safety and reliability must be thoroughly examined throughout the life cycle of the structural system. Ultrasonic measurements have been an industry standard for both surface and subsurface inspections. To this end, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has researched and developed advanced image reconstruction algorithms to capture internal damage. The results and discussion presented herein summarize the current state of the ultrasonic model–based iterative reconstruction (U-MBIR) algorithm developed at ORNL. More specifically, this report presents a comparison between reconstruction images produced via a widely employed ultrasonic NDE technique—the synthetic aperture focusing technique (SAFT)—and the ORNL-developed U-MBIR algorithm. These NDE methodologies are demonstrated using ultrasonic data collected from four concrete specimens. Overall, the U-MBIR algorithm eliminates artifacts and noise that are typically present within the SAFT reconstructions, and it shows defects and anomalies more clearly than the SAFT images. In conclusion, this algorithm is suitable for identifying concrete defects, although more improvements and optimization could be done to better define internal defects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enhancement of operational Flexibility of Power Plants Using IN740

Headers are crucial components within diverse industries, especially in the energy sector, as they enable the efficient transfer of fluids. The selection of materials for headers is determined by their specific applications; for example, Grade 91 and Grade 92 steels are commonly utilized. In our research, we recommend the adoption of INCONEL alloy 740 due to its exceptional robustness and heat-resistant characteristics. One critical parameter in header systems is the heat transfer coefficient, which directly influences the efficiency of heat exchange processes and can thereby impact the structural integrity of the headers. This coefficient is closely linked with factors such as the Nusselt number, which is influenced by fluid flow characteristics and thermal properties. The flow direction within headers, whether unidirectional or multidirectional—significantly affects the overall dynamics of heat transfer. This research focuses on exploring the behavior of headers, a specific pipeline system component, using ANSYS simulation software. The study aims to predict heat transfer and mechanical behavior within headers under various conditions through steady-state and transient simulations (parts 1 and 2 of the report). Key parameters such as heat transfer coefficient, velocity, and temperature are examined with the goal of optimizing header design. Part 3 of the report addresses the critical yet underexplored relationship between pressure drop and heat transfer coefficients in the transient flow regime within headers, specifically focusing on smooth horizontal circular tubes. Limited experimental work has been conducted in this area, prompting the need for comprehensive analysis. By leveraging machine learning techniques, this research aims to establish a correlation between pressure drop and heat transfer across various flow conditions, including laminar, transient, quasi-turbulent, and turbulent regimes. The data utilized for this analysis were meticulously gathered from existing literature, capturing simultaneous measurements of pressure drops and heat transfer. Part 4: In the context of power plants, header pipes are essential components that significantly influence system performance by facilitating the collection and distribution of steam. This report highlights the critical role of header pipes in enhancing reliability, efficiency, and overall power plant performance. A key aspect of this investigation is shape optimization, which aims to maximize performance while minimizing material usage. By focusing on shape optimization, this research contributes to improved efficiency and a reduced environmental footprint for power plant installations. The methodology developed in this study emphasizes optimizing header shapes to decrease reliance on expensive alloy materials and lower maintenance costs. Furthermore, a case study was conducted using a header from an operational power plant to validate the proposed optimization techniques. Finally, part 5 addresses the challenges associated with flexible operations in boiler systems, the study outlines several strategies for enhancing the durability and reliability of steam headers. Key approaches include material selection, which involves utilizing advanced materials with superior high-temperature properties and enhanced fatigue resistance to extend the lifespan of steam headers. Design modifications are also recommended, focusing on implementing changes that mitigate thermal stress and cyclic loading to reduce the likelihood of failures under varying operating conditions. Additionally, the study emphasizes the importance of regular inspection and monitoring by establishing rigorous protocols to detect early signs of damage, allowing for timely maintenance and minimizing the risks of catastrophic failures. Furthermore, operational guidelines are developed to minimize the frequency and severity of thermal transients, ensuring stable and efficient operations. Collectively, these strategies provide a robust framework for overcoming the unique challenges posed by flexible operation in boiler systems, ultimately contributing to improved reliability and performance in power plant operations. Through this comprehensive approach, the study not only enhances the understanding of pressure drop and heat transfer relationships but also promotes advancements in design and operation that will benefit the entire power generation industry.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2022

Importance of appropriate genome information for the design of mating type primers in black and yellow morel populations

Abstract Morels are highly prized edible fungi where sexual reproduction is essential for fruiting-body production. As a result, a comprehensive understanding of their sexual reproduction is of great interest. Central to this is the identification of the reproductive strategies used by morels. Sexual reproduction in fungi is controlled by mating-type ( MAT ) genes and morels are thought to be mainly heterothallic with two idiomorphs, MAT1-1 and MAT1-2. Genomic sequencing of black (Elata clade) and yellow (Esculenta clade) morel species has led to the development of PCR primers designed to amplify genes from the two idiomorphs for rapid genotyping of isolates from these two clades. To evaluate the design and theoretical performance of these primers we performed a thorough bioinformatic investigation, including the detection of the MAT region in publicly available Morchella genomes and in-silico PCR analyses. All examined genomes, including those used for primer design, appeared to be heterothallic. This indicates an inherent fault in the original primer design which utilized a single Morchella genome, as the use of two genomes with complementary mating types would be required to design accurate primers for both idiomorphs. Furthermore, potential off-targets were identified for some of the previously published primer sets, but verification was challenging due to lack of adequate genomic information and detailed methodologies for primer design. Examinations of the black morel specific primer pairs (MAT11L/R and MAT22L/R) indicated the MAT22 primers would correctly target and amplify the MAT1-2 idiomorph, but the MAT11 primers appear to be capable of amplifying incorrect off-targets within the genome. The yellow morel primer pairs (EMAT1-1 L/R and EMAT1-2 L/R) appear to have reporting errors, as the published primer sequences are dissimilar with reported amplicon sequences and the EMAT1-2 primers appear to amplify the RNA polymerase II subunit ( RPB2 ) gene. The lack of the reference genome used in primer design and descriptive methodology made it challenging to fully assess the apparent issues with the primers for this clade. In conclusion, additional work is still required for the generation of reliable primers to investigate mating types in morels and to assess their performance on different clades and across multiple geographical regions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Novel Relativistic Electronic Structure Theories for Actinide-Containing Compounds

Actinides of importance to basic energy sciences contain electrons moving at speed comparable to the speed of light. Reliable computational simulation of these electrons and hence actinide chemistry requires accurate description of relativistic effects. The present project advances computational actinide chemistry with development of new methodologies, algorithms, and computer programs in relativistic quantum chemistry, as well as applications to actinide chemistry and spectroscopy. A new “electrons-only” exact two-component approach has been developed to provide efficient treatments of relativistic effects, while maintaining chemical accuracy. New computational algorithms developed here extend the applicability of relativistic electron-correlation methods to larger molecules. The method-development work in this project also features the first implementation of analytic gradient technique for relativistic electron-correlation methods, which provides significantly enhanced ability to compute properties for molecules containing actinides. The applicability and usefulness of these new methods and computer programs have been demonstrated in calculations of actinide-containing molecules to facilitate understanding of actinide chemistry and spectroscopy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning-Based Anomaly Detection for PMT Data Quality Monitoring in the SBN and DUNE

Maintaining high-quality detector data is essential for achieving the scientific objectives of the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program at Fermilab. Current data quality monitoring (DQM) procedures rely primarily on threshold-based metrics and manual inspection of detector monitoring plots, making the detection of subtle or gradually developing anomalies both time-consuming and dependent on expert interpretation. This project developed and evaluated a machine-learning workflow for automatically identifying anomalous photomultiplier tube (PMT) channels in the Short-Baseline Near Detector (SBND) using optical-hit amplitude data. A Python-based analysis program was developed to process ROOT files, extract statistical features describing individual PMT amplitude distributions, and generate feature vectors for anomaly detection. These features were used to train an Isolation Forest model using data representing normal detector operation. The trained model was subsequently applied to independent detector runs to identify channels exhibiting statistically unusual behavior relative to the learned reference response. To support expert interpretation, the workflow generated complementary diagnostic products, including anomaly score distributions, normalized amplitude comparisons, decision-tree visualizations, and principal component analysis (PCA) projections. This project demonstrated the feasibility of integrating unsupervised machine learning into detector data-quality monitoring and developed a complete workflow for automated PMT performance assessment to aid expert-driven review. Beyond its technical contributions, the VFP appointment fostered a research collaboration between Aurora University and Fermilab and provided direct workforce development benefits by training the visiting faculty member in detector-scale machine-learning methods that are now being incorporated into undergraduate coursework and research. The methodology developed here provides a foundation for future applications to ProtoDUNE and other liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) detectors, contributing to ongoing efforts to improve detector reliability, reduce manual monitoring requirements, and enable scalable data quality monitoring for future large-scale neutrino experiments, including the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE).

Colón Santana, Juan A. [Unlisted, US, IL]↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reanalysis of Water Withdrawal for Irrigation, Electric Power, and Public Supply Sectors in the Conterminous United States, 1950–2016

Accurately measuring water use by the economy is essential for developing reliable models of water resource availability. Indeed, these models rely on retrospective analyses that provide insights into shifting human population demands and adaptions to water shortages. However, accurate, methodologically consistent, empirically authentic, and spatiotemporally comprehensive historical datasets for water withdrawals are scarce. Herein, we present a reanalysis of annual resolution (1950–2016) historical data set on irrigation, electric power, and public supply water withdrawal within the conterminous United States (US) at the county-level, and, for power plants, at the site-level. To estimate electric power water use, we synthesized a historically comprehensive list of generators and historic patterns in generation across fuels, prime movers, and cooling technologies. Irrigation water use estimation required building a crop-demand model that utilized historical information on irrigated acreage for crops and golf courses, stage-specific crop water demand, and climate information. To estimate public water supply use, we developed a random forest model constructed from information on population, infrastructure, climate, and land cover. These estimates generally agree with total county and state water use information provided by the US Geological Survey (USGS) water use circular and estimates generated from independent studies for specific years. However, we also observed discrepancies between our estimates and USGS data that appear to be caused by inconsistencies in the methods used by the USGS's primary data sources at the state level over decades of data collection, highlighting the importance of reanalysis to yield spatiotemporally consistent and intercomparable estimates of water use.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A distributed voltage inference framework for cyber-physical attacks detection and localization in active distribution grids

The transition to active distribution grids with real-time monitoring and control depends on the proliferation of advanced communication networks and devices. This paradigm shift towards a cyber-physical architecture also introduces new vulnerabilities for adversaries to exploit and launch sophisticated cyber-physical attacks targeting grid observability. Current research highlights the challenges in distinguishing attacks on voltage phasor or nodal injection measurements and isolating multi-source attack locations in a multiphase distribution grid. The attack detection and localization methods in literature face accuracy issues, applications across diverse attack scenarios, or scalability limits. Here, to bridge these gaps, this paper proposes a distributed Voltage Inference framework for real-time detection and localization of cyber-physical attacks, addressing scalability, adaptability, and accuracy challenges in state-of-the-art methods. The proposed methodology leverages the distributed nature of the Voltage Inference framework through a two-step process of prediction and correction, together with a tractable graph partitioning approach, providing a reliable solution to identify compromised measurement sources and facilitate isolation. Extensive testing on IEEE 13 and 123-node distribution feeders underscores the algorithm’s efficacy, enhancing the security and resilience of active distribution grids against evolving cyber threats. Additionally, Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) implementation validates the proposed strategy’s practical applicability in real-world scenarios.

active distribution grids↗
DOE OSTI2023

The impact of the $\text{WHIM}$ on the $\text{IGM}$ thermal state determined from the low- z Lyman $\alpha$ forest

At z ≲ 1, shock heating caused by large-scale velocity flows and possibly violent feedback from galaxy formation, converts a significant fraction of the cool gas (T ~ 10 4 K) in the intergalactic medium (IGM) into warm–hot phase (WHIM) with T > 10 5 K, resulting in a significant deviation from the previously tight power-law IGM temperature–density relationship, T = T 0 (P/$\bar{p}$) γ-1 ⁠. This study explores the impact of the WHIM on measurements of the low-z IGM thermal state, [T 0 , γ], based on the b–NH 1 distribution of the Ly α forest. Exploiting a machine learning-enabled simulation-based inference method trained on Nyx hydrodynamical simulations, we demonstrate that [T 0 , γ] can still be reliably measured from the b–NH 1 distribution at z = 0.1, notwithstanding the substantial WHIM in the IGM. To investigate the effects of different feedback, we apply this inference methodology to mock spectra derived from the IllustrisTNG and Illustris simulations at z = 0.1. The results suggest that the underlying [T 0 , γ] of both simulations can be recovered with biases as low as |Δlog(T 0 /K)| ≲ 0.05 dex, |Δγ| ≲ 0.1, smaller than the precision of a typical measurement. Given the large differences in the volume-weighted WHIM fractions between the three simulations (Illustris 38 percent, IllustrisTNG 10 percent, and Nyx 4 per cent), we conclude that the b–N H1 distribution is not sensitive to the WHIM under realistic conditions. Finally, we investigate the physical properties of the detectable Ly α absorbers, and discover that although their T and Δ distributions remain mostly unaffected by feedback, they are correlated with the photoionization rate used in the simulation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Thermal Reservoir Networks for Modularly Expandable Thermal Microgrids

The Department of Defense (DoD) faces the substantial challenge of cost-effectively retrofitting one to two installations per month, each comprising approximately 1,000 buildings, to improve resilience, reduce energy consumption, and enhance energy supply security. Achieving these objectives requires optimal system selection and effective risk mitigation during system integration. To address this need, we introduce Platform-Based Design (PBD), a structured, hierarchical methodology adapted from other industrial sectors to the domain of energy system retrofits. We demonstrate the effectiveness of PBD through a techno-economic feasibility study comparing geothermal-coupled thermal energy networks (TENs) with conventional energy systems for heating, cooling, and powering 17 buildings at Joint Base Andrews (JBA) in Maryland. Our analysis illustrates that the PBD approach enables rigorous, data-driven, sequential decision making, resulting in a family of Pareto-optimal systems, among which the TEN emerged as the most promising solution. The selected TEN design integrates geothermal borefields, heat recovery heat pumps, photovoltaic (PV) arrays, and battery storage. Compared to the baseline system – gas heating combined with air-source chillers – the proposed TEN reduces annual imported energy by 74% and peak electricity demand by 45%, achieves a levelized cost of energy of $\$0.210$/kWh, and substantially enhances resilience. Life-cycle costs increase by approximately 6%, and initial investment costs are about 2.5 times higher than the baseline. However, if central plant infrastructure, district loops, and utility-scale PV and battery systems are privately funded and operated, the initial investment would fall below the baseline system cost. Critical to achieving these significant performance improvements were detailed nonlinear dynamic simulations coupling geothermal heat transfer, energy system operation, and realistic feedback control logic. These simulations identified essential design modifications and control strategy refinements that substantially reduced energy use, peak demand, and compressor shortcycling, thereby improving durability and reliability—issues that would have been significantly more expensive to resolve during operation. Additionally, the verification step highlighted sensitivities to key design parameters that could reduce initial investment by approximately $\$2$ million and reduce annual life-cycle costs more than $\$300,000$. We recommend adopting the PBD methodology for future feasibility studies and TEN pilot projects to gain valuable operational experience. Furthermore, we recommend that DoD invest in transferring and scaling the PBD methodology to other installations. This entails developing standardized computational frameworks and component libraries as well as training industry in conducting PBD. Such investments would enable rapid, robust, reliable, and cost-effective retrofits, supporting DoD’s ambitious energy system modernization goals.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development and Demonstration of a Prototype Molten Salt Sampling System

Molten salt reactors (MSRs) offer potential operability and safety advantages when compared to commercial light water reactors (LWRs). However, operating experience with MSRs is sparse in comparison to what exists for LWRs. Further, the chemical and isotopic composition of the fuel and/or coolant salt is dynamic and difficult to characterize continuously, posing potential safety, operability, and safeguards unknowns that need to be addressed. A molten salt sampling system (MSSS) is regarded as a necessary subsystem within first generation MSRs used to obtain samples of salt for chemical and isotopic analysis in support of the need to monitor and control salt composition during operation. The MSSS is being developed using the Safety-in-Design (SiD) methodology, which incorporates incremental integration of safety analysis into the design process. The MSSS conceptual design emerging from the application of the early stages of the SiD methodology consists of a sample collection system and its housing, a freeze port, and inert gas control and delivery systems. This article describes the prototypes developed to test the functions of these MSSS subsystems, presents the results of testing in both dry and molten salt environments (including reliability data collection performed in accordance with the principles of SiD and the development of a semiquantitative fault tree model), and summarizes the opportunities for future design and testing enhancements based on the results of prototype testing.

molten salt reactor↗
DOE OSTI2023

Summary of Methodology for Mitigating Risks Associated with Licensing and Qualifying AM Nuclear Materials

The US Department of Energy’s Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program focuses on accelerating the development, qualification, demonstration, and deployment of advanced materials and manufacturing technologies to enable reliable and economical nuclear energy. Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) is one of the most popular additive manufacturing (AM) processes for fabricating components with intrinsically complex geometries. LPBF was extensively explored for nuclear applications under the previous Transformational Challenge Reactor program. Additionally, Oak Ridge National Laboratory developed and licensed the Peregrine software and larger digital platform that couples machine learning and in situ data collection during AM to detect anomalies and any evolved defects. The digital platform will be critical to (1) the qualification of AM components for nuclear applications that link location-specific data to macroscopic properties and (2) predict final component performance. Current in situ process monitoring tools are valuable for observing the formation of stochastic flaws, but additional data are needed to predict the resulting microstructures and associated material performance. Rapid cooling rates and large thermal gradients have caused large heterogeneities in the microstructure, which cause anisotropy in mechanical performance. The AMMT program is evaluating the best approaches for addressing these heterogeneities and their effect on component performance using a combination of multiscale modeling, enhanced in situ process monitoring, and high throughput experimental testing. This report summarizes strategies for mitigating the risks associated with qualifying AM components, including developing new sensing capabilities for in situ process monitoring and characterizing melt pool solidification and residual stresses to inform multiscale modeling efforts.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Valuing Resilience Benefits of Microgrids for an Interconnected Island Distribution System

Extreme climate-driven events such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires are becoming more intense in areas exposed to these threats, requiring approaches to improve the resilience of the electrical infrastructure serving these communities. Long-duration outages caused by such high impact events propagate to economic, health, and social consequences for communities. As essential service providers, electric utilities are mandated to provide safe, economical and reliable electricity to their customers. The public is becoming less tolerant to these more frequent disruptions, especially in view of technological advances that are intended to improve power quality, reliability and resilience. One promising solution is state-of-the-art microgrids and the advanced controls employed therein. This paper presents and demonstrates an approach to technoeconomic analysis that can be used to value the avoided economic consequences of grid resilience investments, as applied to the islands of Vieques and Culebra in Puerto Rico. This valuation methodology can support policies to incorporate resilience value into any investment decision-making process, especially those which serve the public interest.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantification of High‐Temperature Transition Al 2 O 3 and Their Phase Transformations**

Abstract High‐temperature treatment of γ‐Al 2 O 3 can lead to a series of polymorphic transformations, including the formation of δ‐Al 2 O 3 and θ‐Al 2 O 3 . Quantification of the microstructure in the range where δ‐ and θ‐Al 2 O 3 are formed represents a formidable challenge, as both phases accommodate a high degree of structural disorder. In this work, we explore the use of an XRD recursive‐stacking formalism for the quantification of high‐temperature transition aluminas. We formulate the recursive‐stacking methodology for modelling of disorder in δ‐Al 2 O 3 and twinning in θ‐Al 2 O 3 and show that explicitly accounting for the disorder is necessary to reliably model the XRD patterns of high‐temperature transition alumina. We also use the recursive stacking approach to study phase transformation during high‐temperature (1050 °C) treatment. We show that the two different intergrowth modes of δ‐Al 2 O 3 have different transformation characteristics and that a significant portion of δ‐Al 2 O 3 is stabilized with θ‐Al 2 O 3 even after prolonged high‐temperature exposures.

Kovarik, Libor↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-Informed and Data-Driven Prediction of Residual Stress in Three-Dimensional Machining

Efficient and reliable prediction of machining-induced residual stress (RS) is a key requirement for truly integrated computational materials engineering (ICME). Currently available process modeling approaches, including empirical, analytical, and numerical methodologies lack predictive power and require substantial calibration and validation data. Moreover, most model-based approaches consider only two-dimensional (2D) (i.e., orthogonal), cutting processes. Meanwhile, industrial processes such as milling, turning, and drilling are inherently three-dimensional (3D). The present work attempts to bridge the gap between 2D and 3D through careful consideration of the process physics, including geometric, kinematic, and size-effect constraints to realize robust prediction of how RS develops in 3D machining. Using a novel in-situ experimental technique and digital image correlation (DIC) to determine equivalent Hertzian contact widths, contact pressures, and friction coefficients, the proposed methodology leverages a discretized conversion algorithm that includes multi-pass shakedown effects. This paper presents a semi-analytical model to predict machining-induced RS in 3D turning operations, which are used representatively for 3D processes more generally. Rather than follow a ‘brute force’ 3D FEM approach or conduct countless experiments to train a purely data-driven machine learning algorithm, the proposed approach builds on previous 2D modeling work. Through careful consideration of the process physics, including complex geometry/kinematic considerations of 3D turning, the authors demonstrated an experimentally calibrated approach, as well as validation based on published RS data. Model predictions and previously published measurement data of RS depth profiles for turning of Inconel 718 were compared for a range of process parameters. Correlation between the proposed 3D model and validation data was found to be within the margin of experimental error for most conditions. The proposed model appears to capture the overall behavior of 3D RS depth profiles with acceptable accuracy, particularly the key metrics of near-surface stress, peak stress magnitude and location, as well as overall stress profile depth. This report presents a physics-informed, data-driven approach for efficient calibration of a 2D model for machining-induced RS through DIC analysis of in-situ characterized subsurface displacement fields.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Propagation of Input Uncertainties in Numerical Simulations of Laser Powder Bed Fusion

Laser powder bed fusion has the potential of redefining state-of-the-art processing and production methods, but defect formation and inconsistent build quality have limited the implementation of this process. Numerical models are widely used to study this process and predict the formation of these defects. Presently, the uncertainties of model input parameters and thermophysical properties used by these numerical simulations have not been investigated. In the present study, the uncertainty in these input parameters and material properties are quantified for laser powder bed fusion, with and without a simulated powder bed, to determine their influence on the predictive accuracy of an experimentally validated numerical model. Accounting for all possible sources of uncertainty quickly becomes computationally expensive on account of the curse of dimensionality. Uncertainty in laser absorption, solid, and liquid specific heat of the metal were found to have the largest effect on model prediction reliability with or without the use of a powder bed. Results also illustrate that accounting for these three uncertain parameters still captures the majority of model prediction uncertainty. Furthermore, the methodology of this study may be used to understand the uncertainty in as-built microstructure through propagation to microstructure prediction models, or applied under processing conditions where high Péclet numbers are observed and the thermal convection and fluid flow within the molten pool are substantial.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian inference of fiber orientation and polymer properties in short fiber-reinforced polymer composites

Herein we present a Bayesian methodology to infer the elastic modulus of the constituent polymer and the fiber orientation state in a short-fiber reinforced polymer composite (SFRP). The properties are inversely determined using only a few experimental tests. Developing composite manufacturing digital twins for SFRP composite processes, including injection molding and extrusion deposition additive manufacturing (EDAM) requires extensive experimental material characterization. In particular, characterizing the composite mechanical properties is time consuming and therefore, micromechanics models are used to fully identify the elasticity tensor. Hence, the objective of this paper is to infer the fiber orientation and the effective polymer modulus and therefore, identify the elasticity tensor of the composite with minimal experimental tests. To that end, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian model coupled with a micromechanics model to infer the fiber orientation and the polymer elastic modulus simultaneously which we then use to estimate the composite elasticity tensor. We motivate and demonstrate the methodology for the EDAM process but the development is such that it is applicable to other SFRP composites processed via other methods. Our results demonstrate that the approach provides a reliable framework for the inference, with as few as three tensile tests, while accounting for epistemic and aleatory uncertainty. Posterior predictive checks show that the model is able to recreate the experimental data well. The ability of the Bayesian approach to calibrate the material properties and its associated uncertainties, make it a promising tool for enabling a probabilistic predictive framework for composites manufacturing digital twins.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Uncertainty in Moment Estimation for Small Earthquakes in Southern Nevada Using the Coda Envelope Method

Compiling source parameter estimates for small earthquakes is important both for our understanding of earthquake physics and for accurately assessing earthquake hazard. Reliable source parameter estimates are difficult to achieve for small earthquakes, in part due to our inability to accurately model the relevant physical processes at high frequencies. The coda envelope methodology developed by Mayeda and Walter (1996) and Mayeda et al. (2003) can mitigate this concern and estimate the moment of small earthquakes by determining the parameters that control the shape of the S-wave coda envelope while eliminating path effects by minimizing the scatter between seismic stations. Here, we use an open-source implementation of this technique called the Coda Calibration Tool (CCT; Barno, 2017) to calculate CCT-based moment magnitude estimates of small earthquakes (M L 0–3) in the Rock Valley, Nevada, region within the Nevada National Security Site. The Rock Valley data set is of particular interest because it allows us to explore the changes in uncertainties of the coda calibration method with earthquake size and depth. We found that a consistent linear relationship exists between the local magnitude M L and our coda-derived M w estimates for earthquakes as small as M L 0–3, but that current CCT workflows do not accurately characterize very shallow events. We also demonstrate that the epistemic uncertainty in the apparent stress value assumed by the CCT algorithm can influence magnitude estimates of small earthquakes. In conclusion, these results provide valuable insight into the seismicity of this region, and inform future analysis and modeling efforts for nuclear monitoring and seismic hazard.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A methodology for generating reduced-order models for large-scale buildings using the Krylov subspace method

Developing a computationally efficient but accurate building energy simulation (BES) model is important for many purposes. Model order reduction (MOR) methods are attractive and much more reliable than identification approaches, since it directly extract a lower-dimensional model from a detailed physics-based model without any pre-simulations. However, because of computational and data storage requirements, there are challenges of applying these methods to a large-scale building. To overcome the problem, this work introduces the Krylov subspace method to the building science field. Technical issues of applying the method to building applications are addressed and a suitable algorithm that overcomes those challenges is presented. Furthermore, to demonstrate the reliability of the algorithm, comparisons between the resulted reduced-order model (ROM) and a high-fidelity model from a commercial BES software for a 60-zone case study building are provided. The ROM was a factor of 100 faster than the high fidelity model but with high accuracy.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗