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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Regional Assessment for the CO 2 Storage Potential in the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. The report describes the regional analysis of the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend (NNPRT) in Northern Michigan as part of the MRCSP programs Regional Assessment goals. The goal of this task was to perform an initial assessment of the geologic storage capacity and injectivity of the Northern Fairway of Michigan’s Niagaran Reef Trend. This was achieved through three main objectives: 1) development of a reef atlas, 2) understanding the regional trends in geology, and 3) estimating CO 2 and CO 2 -EOR resources. Data collected across multiple subtasks were integrated into a mappable database that could be accessed from many of the leading software. The reef atlas was used to map the reefs and associated characteristics across the entire NNPRT. Several methodologies were explored to estimate the CO 2 and CO 2 -EOR resources across the trend which included three scenarios: 1) storage only using fluid substitution and volumetric estimations, 2) CO 2 -EOR which applied proximity analysis concepts and measured performance metrics from the Core Energy reefs to predict performance at all oil reefs, and 3) enhanced storage scenario which combined CO 2 -EOR with fluid substitution to represent maximized storage after completion of CO 2 -EOR.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Population of H ii Regions in NGC 7020

The galaxy NGC 7020 displays an exotic hexagonal ringlike central structure with conspicuous ansae located at two opposite vertices and a tenuous external ring populated by H ii regions. Inside and around the hexagonal structure, Hα emission is also present at the inner disk. To characterize the population of the H ii regions, as well as their ionizing clusters, we imaged NGC 7020 with narrowband Hα and nearby continuum filters attached to GMOS-S installed on the Gemini South telescope. We found 202 H ii regions or complexes of H ii regions evenly distributed between the outer ring and the central disk The nucleus and ansae also present Hα emission. The equivalent width of the Hα line (W {sub Hα}) is systematically greater at the regions of the outer ring relative to those of the inner disk. We discuss the influence of the metallicity gradient of the disk and the upper limit of the masses of the initial mass function on W {sub Hα}, and we conclude that the data are still consistent with the occurrence of a younger burst of H ii region formation in the outer ring. The central regions present more massive clusters, M ≥ 10{sup 6} M {sub ⊙}, than those of the outer ring (M ≤ 10{sup 6} M {sub ⊙}). Three clusters within 5″ of the nucleus present masses higher than 10{sup 8} M {sub ⊙}. The presence of diffuse Hα emission in the inner 5″ suggests gas flows in the nuclear region.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spatial distributions of X CO 2 seasonal cycle amplitude and phase over northern high-latitude regions

Satellite-based observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) provide measurements in remote regions, such as the biologically sensitive but undersampled northern high latitudes, and are progressing toward true global data coverage. Recent improvements in satellite retrievals of total column-averaged dry air mole fractions of CO 2 (X CO 2 ) from the NASA Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) have allowed for unprecedented data coverage of northern high-latitude regions, while maintaining acceptable accuracy and consistency relative to ground-based observations, and finally providing sufficient data in spring and autumn for analysis of satellite-observed X CO 2 seasonal cycles across a majority of terrestrial northern high-latitude regions. Here, we present an analysis of X CO 2 seasonal cycles calculated from OCO-2 data for temperate, boreal, and tundra regions, subdivided into 5° latitude by 20° longitude zones. We quantify the seasonal cycle amplitudes (SCAs) and the annual half drawdown day (HDD). OCO-2 SCAs are in good agreement with ground-based observations at five high-latitude sites, and OCO-2 SCAs show very close agreement with SCAs calculated for model estimates of X CO 2 from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Services (CAMS) global inversion-optimized greenhouse gas flux model v19r1 and the CarbonTracker2019 model (CT2019B). Model estimates of X CO 2 from the GEOS-Chem CO 2 simulation version 12.7.2 with underlying biospheric fluxes from CarbonTracker2019 (GC-CT2019) yield SCAs of larger magnitude and spread over a larger range than those from CAMS, CT2019B, or OCO-2; however, GC-CT2019 SCAs still exhibit a very similar spatial distribution across northern high-latitude regions to that from CAMS, CT2019B, and OCO-2. Zones in the Asian boreal forest were found to have exceptionally large SCA and early HDD, and both OCO-2 data and model estimates yield a distinct longitudinal gradient of increasing SCA from west to east across the Eurasian continent. In northern high-latitude regions, spanning latitudes from 47 to 72° N, longitudinal gradients in both SCA and HDD are at least as pronounced as latitudinal gradients, suggesting a role for global atmospheric transport patterns in defining spatial distributions of X CO2 seasonality across these regions. GEOS-Chem surface contact tracers show that the largest X CO 2 SCAs occur in areas with the greatest contact with land surfaces, integrated over 15–30d. The correlation of X CO 2 SCA with these land surface contact tracers is stronger than the correlation of X CO 2 SCA with the SCA of CO 2 fluxes or the total annual CO 2 flux within each 5° latitude by 20° longitude zone. This indicates that accumulation of terrestrial CO 2 flux during atmospheric transport is a major driver of regional variations in X CO 2 SCA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1972

Interdisciplinary research on the application of ERTS-1 data to the regional land use planning process

The author has identified the following significant results. Although the degree to which ERTS-1 imagery can satisfy regional land use planning data needs is not yet known, it appears to offer means by which the data acquisition process can be immeasurably improved. The initial experiences of an interdisciplinary group attempting to formulate ways of analyzing the effectiveness of ERTS-1 imagery as a base for environmental monitoring and the resolution of regional land allocation problems are documented. Application of imagery to the regional planning process consists of utilizing representative geographical regions within the state of Wisconsin. Because of the need to describe and depict regional resource complexity in an interrelatable state, certain resources within the geographical regions have been inventoried and stored in a two-dimensional computer-based map form. Computer oriented processes were developed to provide for the economical storage, analysis, and spatial display of natural and cultural data for regional land use planning purposes. The authors are optimistic that the imagery will provide revelant data for land use decision making at regional levels.

Clapp, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1973

ERTS regional scale overview linking land use and environmental processes in CARETS

A mosaic of ERTS images of the CARETS region has been used to partition the region into zones on the basis of similarity of tones and textures visible at a regional-scale overview. The resulting patterns were compared with existing small scale maps of the region representing relief, land surface forms, geology, soils, vegetation, forest types, and land use. The ERTS-derived zones most closely resemble the patterns on the small scale land use map, suggesting that, at least in a highly developed region such as CARETS, land use is an indicator or resultant surface expression of several interacting environmental processes. These results lend support to the CARETS model of interdisciplinary regional analysis, whereby remote sensor-derived data sets on land use and land use change become the basic data entry into a regional information system to serve regional planners and land managers.

Alexander, R. H.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Comparison of active regions on the nucleus of Comet Halley

The images of the nucleus of Comet Halley returned by the Giotto spacecraft reveal a number of active regions on the surface, one of which is near the expected location of the rotation axis. This feature is larger and brighter than other source regions, suggesting that the mechanism which drives this source is also different. At this active region near the rotation pole the Sun is circumpolar for a significant portion of the solar encounter. Continuous solar insolation causes heating of the nucleus to greater depths and results in the unique properties of this source region. For example, the dust scattering in the antisolar regions around the nucleus is less from the polar region than from the region at the sunward end of the nucleus, consistent with spotty ejection of dusty mantle from the sunward tip and widespread activity in the polar region.

Reitsema, H. J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Inferences concerning the magnetospheric source region for auroral breakup

Inferences concerning the magnetospheric source region for auroral arcs obtained from particle measurements on polar orbiting satellites are presented and contrasted with other ideas. An argument that the magnetospheric source region for auroral arc breakup and substorm initiation is along Boundary Plasma Sheet (BPS) magnetic field lines is given. This source region lies beyond a distinct central plasma sheet region and sufficiently far from the Earth that energetic ion motion violates the guiding center approximation (is chaotic). The source region is not constrained to any particular range of distances from the Earth, and substorm initiation may be possible over a wide range of distances from near synchronous orbit to the distant tail. It is also argued that the layer of low energy electrons and velocity dispersed ion beams observed at low altitudes on Aureol 3 is not a different region from the region of auroral arcs. Both comprise the BPS. The two regions occasionally appear distinct at low altitudes because of the effects of arc field aligned potential drops on precipitating particles.

Lyons, L. R.↗
NASA NTRS1995

The transition regions of Capella

We have used the Goddard High Resolution Spectrometer (GHRS) to observe the spectoscopic binary system Capella (G8 III + G1 III). Exposures with the G140L, G140M, G160M, G200M, and echelle gratings provide emission line profiles with unprecedented signal-to-noise and spectral resolving power (lambda/Delta-lambda) up to 92,000. Multi-Gaussin fits to the line profiles show that the hotter star contributes 60%-70% of the total flux in the chromospheric O I and Mg II resonance lines, but about 90% of the flux in the Si III, Si IV, and C IV lines formed in the transition region at T less than or = 10(exp 5) K. We find clear evidence that the emission lines from the hotter star are systemtically redshifted relative to the photosphere with Doppler shifts of 5 +/- 1 km/s for the +9 +/- 3 km/s in the chromospheric Mg II and O I lines, respectively, increasing to +24 +/- 5 km/s for the transition region Si IV 1393.8A line. The multi-Gaussian fits to permitted transition region lines of SI III, Si IV, C IV, and N V indicate the presence of three components: moderately broad lines formed in the transition region of the hotter star (component H), narrow lines formed in the transition region of the cooler star (component C), and very broad lines that we think are formed in microflares on the hotter star (component B). The He II 1640.4 A feature has an broad profile, which indicates that it is formed by collisional excitation primarily from the hotter star, and a weak narrow component that we interpret as due to radiative recombination on the cooler star. We observed spin-forbidden emission lines of C III), O III), Si III), O IV), O V), and S IV) that are sensitive to electron density. Fainter members of the O IV) multiplet and all of the S IV) lines have never before been seen in any star than the Sun. We determine electron densities in the transition regions of the Capella stars using lines ratios of O IV) lines and emission measure analysis. The emission measures are self-consistent only when the fluxes from each emitting component are considered separately. In particular, the transition region abundance distributions appear to be different on the two stars, and the spin-forbidden lines were not detected in the B component. The emission measures for component H (the G1 star) are consistent with a constant electron pressure (or hydrostatic equilibrium) transition region with P(sub e) = 10(exp 15 + 0.1)/cu cm K and possibly solar 'coronal' abundances.

Linsky, Jeffrey L.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejections from Vector Magnetograms: Results from More Active Regions

In a previous pilot study of four predominantly bipolar active regions observed by the MSFC vector magnetograph in 1991-92, we found that two quantitative measures of the global nonpotentiality of an active region were promising predictors of whether the active region produced coronal mass ejections (CMES) during its rotation across the Sun. The two quantitative measures are 1) the length (L(sub ss)) of the segments along the active region's main neutral line on which the vector magnetic field is both strong and strongly sheared, and 2) the global net current (I(sub N) flowing up one side of the bipole and down the other. Two of the active regions had large measured global nonpotentiality (L(sub ss) approximately >10(exp 5) km and I(sub N) approximately >4x 10(exp 12) Amp) and produced three CMEs each. The other two active regions had much smaller measured global nonpotentiality and produced no CMES. We have now expanded our sample of active regions by a factor of 3 with active regions from 1991 to the present. We have calibrated the line-of-sight magnetic field by comparing it to the line-of-sight field measured by Kitt Peak and/or SOHO/MDI. We have resolved the 180 deg. ambiguity in the transverse field by using three different methods, and compared the resulting global net currents. We will compare the two measures of global nonpotentiality to each other and to the CME productivity of each active i-eolon in our expanded set. We will examine the extent to which these results from the expanded set confirm or modify the tentative rule for CME prediction that we found in our pilot study.

Falconer, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Material Outflows from Coronal Intensity "Dimming Regions" during Coronal Mass Ejection Onset

One signature of expulsion of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the solar corona is the appearance of transient intensity dimmings in coronal images. These dimmings have generally been assumed to be due to discharge of CME material from the corona, and thus the 'dimming regions' are thought of as an important signature of the sources of CMEs. We present spectral observations of two dimming regions at the time of expulsion of CMEs, using the Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer (CDS) on the SOHO satellite. One of the dimming regions is at the solar limb and associated with a CME traveling in the plane of the sky, while the other region is on the solar disk and associated with an Earth-directed 'halo' CME. From the limb event, we see Doppler signatures of approximately 30 km/s in coronal (Fe XVI and Mg IX) emission lines, where the enhanced velocities coincide with the locations of coronal dimming. This provides direct evidence that the dimmings are associated with outflowing material. We also see larger (approximately 100 km/s) Doppler velocities in transition region (O V and He I) emission lines, which are likely to be associated with motions of a prominence and loops at transition region temperatures. An 'EIT wave' accompanies the disk event, and a dimming region behind the wave shows strong blueshifted Doppler signatures of approximately 100 km/s in O V, suggesting that material from the dimming regions behind the wave may be feeding the CME.

Harra, Louise K.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Material Outflows from Coronal Intensity "Dimming Regions" During Coronal Mass Ejection Onset

One signature of expulsion of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the solar corona is the appearance of transient intensity dimmings in coronal images. These dimmings have generally been assumed to be due to discharge of CME material from the corona, and thus the "dimming regions" are thought of as an important signature of the sources of CMEs. We present spectral observations of two dimming regions at the time of expulsion of CMEs, using the Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer (CDS) on the SOHO satellite. One of the dimming regions is at the solar limb and associated with a CME traveling in the plane of the sky, while the other region is on the solar disk and associated with an Earth-directed "halo" CME. From the limb event, we see Doppler signatures of approximately equal to 30 kilometers per second in coronal (Fe XVI and Mg Ix) emission lines, where the enhanced velocities coincide with the locations of coronal dimming. This provides direct evidence that the dimmings are associated with outflowing material. We also see larger (approximately equal to 100 kilometers per second). Doppler velocities in transition region (0 v and He I) emission lines, which are likely to be associated with motions of a prominence and loops at transition region temperatures. An "EIT wave" accompanies the disk event, and a dimming region behind the wave shows strong blue-shifted Doppler signatures of approximately equal to 100 kilometers per second in 0 v, suggesting that material from the dimming regions behind the wave may be feeding the CME.

Harra, Louise K.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Cloud Masking and Surface Temperature Distribution in the Polar Regions Using AVHRR and other Satellite Data

Surface temperature is one of the key variables associated with weather and climate. Accurate measurements of surface air temperatures are routinely made in meteorological stations around the world. Also, satellite data have been used to produce synoptic global temperature distributions. However, not much attention has been paid on temperature distributions in the polar regions. In the polar regions, the number of stations is very sparse. Because of adverse weather conditions and general inaccessibility, surface field measurements are also limited. Furthermore, accurate retrievals from satellite data in the region have been difficult to make because of persistent cloudiness and ambiguities in the discrimination of clouds from snow or ice. Surface temperature observations are required in the polar regions for air-sea-ice interaction studies, especially in the calculation of heat, salinity, and humidity fluxes. They are also useful in identifying areas of melt or meltponding within the sea ice pack and the ice sheets and in the calculation of emissivities of these surfaces. Moreover, the polar regions are unique in that they are the sites of temperature extremes, the location of which is difficult to identify without a global monitoring system. Furthermore, the regions may provide an early signal to a potential climate change because such signal is expected to be amplified in the region due to feedback effects. In cloud free areas, the thermal channels from infrared systems provide surface temperatures at relatively good accuracies. Previous capabilities include the use of the Temperature Humidity Infrared Radiometer (THIR) onboard the Nimbus-7 satellite which was launched in 1978. Current capabilities include the use of the Advance Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) aboard NOAA satellites. Together, these two systems cover a span of 16 years of thermal infrared data. Techniques for retrieving surface temperatures with these sensors in the polar regions have been developed. Errors have been estimated to range from 1K to 5K mainly due to cloud masking problems. With many additional channels available, it is expected that the EOS-Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) will provide an improved characterization of clouds and a good discrimination of clouds from snow or ice surfaces.

Comiso, Joey C.↗
NASA NTRS2004

On the Measurement of Elemental Abundance Ratios in Inner Galaxy H II Regions

Although abundance gradients in the Milky Way Galaxy certainly exist, details remain uncertain, particularly in the inner Galaxy, where stars and H II regions in the Galactic plane are obscured optically. In this paper we revisit two previously studied, inner Galaxy H II regions: G333.6-0.2 and W43. We observed three new positions in G333.6-0.2 with the Kuiper Airborne Observatory and reobserved the central position with the Infrared Space Observatory's Long Wavelength Spectrometer in far-infrared lines of S++, N++, N+, and O++. We also added the N+ lines at 122 and 205 microns to the suite of lines measured in W43 by Simpson et al.. The measured electron densities range from approx. 40 to over 4000 per cu cm in a single HII region, indicating that abundance analyses must consider density variations, since the critical densities of the observed lines range from 40 to 9000 per cu cm. We propose a method to handle density variations and make new estimates of the S/H and N/H abundance ratios. We find that our sulfur abundance estimates for G333.6-0.2 and W43 agree with the S/H abundance ratios expected for the gradient previously reported by Simpson et al., with the S/H values revised to be smaller owing to changes in collisional excitation cross sections. The estimated N/H, S/H, and N/S ratios are the most reliable because of their small corrections for unseen ionization states (< or approx. 10%). The estimated N/S ratios for the two sources are smaller than what would be calculated from the N/H and S/H ratios in our previous paper. If all low excitation H II regions had similar changes to their N/S ratios as a result of adding measurements of N+ to previous measurements of N++, there would be no or only a very small gradient in N/S. This is interesting because nitrogen is considered to be a secondary element and sulfur is a primary element in galactic chemical evolution calculations. We compute models of the two H II regions to estimate corrections for the other unseen ionization states. We find, with large uncertainties, that oxygen does not, have a high abundance, with the result that the N/O ratio is as high (approx. 0.35) as previously reported. The reasons for the uncertainty in the ionization corrections for oxygen are both the non-uniqueness of the H II region models and the sensitivity of these models to different input atomic data and stellar atmosphere models. We discuss these predictions and conclude that only a few of the latest models adequately reproduce H II region observations, including the well-known, relatively-large observed Ne++/O++ ratios in low- and moderate-excitation H II regions.

Simpson, Janet P.↗
NASA NTRS1949

Gas Motion in a Local Supersonic Region and Conditions of Potential-Flow Breakdown

For a certain Mach number of the oncoming flow, the local velocity first reaches the value of the local velocity of sound (M = 1) at some point on the surface of the body located within the flow. This Mach number is designated the critical Mach number M(sub cr). By increasing the flow velocity, a supersonic local region is formed bounded by the body contour and the line of transition from subsonic to supersonic velocity. As is shown by observations with the Toepler apparatus, at a certain flow Mach number M > M(sub cr) a shock wave is formed near the body that closes the local supersonic region from behind. The formation of the shock wave is associated with the appearance of an additional resistance defined as the wave drag. In this paper, certain features are described of the flow in the local supersonic region, which is bounded by the contour of the body and the transition line, and conditions are sought for which the potential flow with the local supersonic region becomes impossible and a shock wave occurs. In the first part of the paper, the general properties of the potential flow in the local supersonic region, bounded by the contour of the profile and the transition line, are established. It is found that at the transition line, if it is not a line of discontinuity, the law of monotonic variation of the angle of inclination of the velocity vector holds (monotonic law). An approximation is given for the change in velocity at the contour of the body. The flow about a contour having a straight part is studied. In the second part of the paper, an approximation is given of the magnitudes of the accelerations at the interior points of the supersonic region. With the aid of these approximations, it is shown that for profiles convex to the flow the breakdown of the potential flow,associated with an increase of the Mach number of the oncoming flow, cannot be due to the formation of an envelope of the characteristics within the supersonic region. On the basis of the monotonic law, the transitional Mach number M is found, beyond which the potential flow with local supersonic region becomes impossible.

Nikolskii, A. A.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Major Impact of Fleet Renewal Over Airports Located in the Most Important Region of Brazil

The present article discusses and analyses the major impacts of the Brazilian carriers fleet renewal regarding Brazilian airport infrastructure in the most important region of the country, the Southeast (SE). A brief historical overview of the country's airline fleet will be presented, demonstrating the need for its renewal (m fact, Brazilian carriers started a major fleet renewal program m the last five years), while analyzing the periods in which a new breed of aircraft was put into service by the major carriers operating in the SE region. The trend of operating the classic regional jets plus the forthcoming entry into service of the "large regional jets" (LRJ, 70-115 seaters) in several point-to-point routes are presented along with the country's carriers" reality of operating these former aircraft in several high-capacity and medium-range routes. The article will focus on the ability of four of the major Southeast's airports to cope with the fleet modernization, mainly due to the fact that the region studied is the most socioeconomic developed, by far, with the largest demand for air transportation, thus making the impacts much more perceptible for the communities and the airport management involved. With the emergence of these impacts, several new projects and investments are being discussed and pushed forward, despite budgetary constrains being a reality in almost every Brazilian city, even in the SE region. In view of this, the paper presents how the general planning could be carried out in order to adapt the airports' infrastructures in function of the proposed (and in some cases, necessary) fleet renewal. Ultimately, we will present the present picture and two future scenarios m order to determine the level of service in the existent passenger terminal facilities in the wake of the possible operation of several new aircraft. Keywords: Airline fleet planning, Airport planning, Regional development, Regional Jets.

Maters, Rafael Waltz↗
NASA NTRS2010

Assessment of the Vulnerability of Water Resources to Seasonal Fires Across the Northern Sub-Saharan African Region

The northern sub-Saharan African (NSSA) region, extending from the southern fringes of the Sahara to the Equator, and stretching west to east from the Atlantic to the Indian ocean coasts, plays a prominent role in the distribution of Saharan dust and other airborne matter around the region and to other parts of the world, the genesis of global atmospheric circulation, and the birth of such major (and often catastrophic) events as hurricanes. Therefore, this NSSA region represents a critical variable in the global climate change equation. Recent satellite-based studies have revealed that the NSSA region has one of the highest biomass-burning rates per unit land area among all regions of the world. Because of the high concentration and frequency of fires in this region, with the associated abundance of heat release and gaseous and particulate smoke emissions, biomass-burning activity is believed to be a major driver of the regional carbon, energy, and water cycles. We acknowledge that the rainy season in the NSSA region is from April to September while biomass burning occurs mainly during the dry season (October to March). Nevertheless, these two phenomena are indirectly coupled to each other through a chain of complex processes and conditions, including land-cover and surface-albedo changes, the carbon cycle, evapotranspiration, drought, desertification, surface water runoff, ground water recharge, and variability in atmospheric composition, heating rates, and circulation. In this presentation, we will examine the theoretical linkages between these processes, discuss the preliminary results based on satellite data analysis, and provide an overview of plans for more integrated research to be conducted over the next few years.

Ichoku, Charles M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Real-Time CME Forecasting Using HMI Active-Region Magnetograms and Flare History

We have recently developed a method of predicting an active region s probability of producing a CME, an X-class Flare, an M-class Flare, or a Solar Energetic Particle Event from a free-energy proxy measured from SOHO/MDI line-of-sight magnetograms. This year we have added three major improvements to our forecast tool: 1) Transition from MDI magnetogram to SDO/HMI magnetogram allowing us near-real-time forecasts, 2) Automation of acquisition and measurement of HMI magnetograms giving us near-real-time forecasts (no older than 2 hours), and 3) Determination of how to improve forecast by using the active region s previous flare history in combination with its free-energy proxy. HMI was turned on in May 2010 and MDI was turned off in April 2011. Using the overlap period, we have calibrated HMI to yield what MDI would measure. This is important since the value of the free-energy proxy used for our forecast is resolution dependent, and the forecasts are made from results of a 1996-2004 database of MDI observations. With near-real-time magnetograms from HMI, near-real-time forecasts are now possible. We have augmented the code so that it continually acquires and measures new magnetograms as they become available online, and updates the whole-sun forecast from the coming day. The next planned improvement is to use an active region s previous flare history, in conjunction with its free-energy proxy, to forecast the active region s event rate. It has long been known that active regions that have produced flares in the past are likely to produce flares in the future, and that active regions that are nonpotential (have large free-energy) are more likely to produce flares in the future. This year we have determined that persistence of flaring is not just a reflection of an active region s free energy. In other words, after controlling for free energy, we have found that active regions that have flared recently are more likely to flare in the future.

Falconer, David↗
NASA NTRS2012

Water Information System Platforms Addressing Critical Societal Needs in the Mena Region

The MENA region includes 18 countries, the occupied Palestinian territories and Western Sahara. However, the region of interest for this study has a strategic interest in countries adjacent to the Mediterranean Sea, which includes, Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan. The 90% of the water in the MENA region is used for the agriculture use. By the end of this century. this region is projected to experience an increase of 3 C to 5 C in mean temperatures and a 20% decline in precipitation (lPCC, 2007). Due to lower precipitation, water run-off is projected to drop by 20% to 30% in most of MENA by 2050 Reduced stream flow and groundwater recharge might lead to a reduction in water supply of 10% or greater by 2050. Therefore, per IPCC projections in temperature rise and precipitation decline in the region, the scarcity of water will become more acute with population growth, and rising demand of food in the region. Additionally, the trans boundary water issues will continue to plague the region in terms of sharing data for better management of water resources. Such pressing issues have brought The World Bank, USAID and NASA to jointly collaborate for establishing integrated, modern, up to date NASA developed capabilities for countries in the MENA region for addressing water resource issues and adapting to climate change impacts for improved decision making and societal benefit. This initiative was launched in October 2011 and is schedule to be completed by the end of2015.

Habib, Shahid↗