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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

The June 2012 North American Derecho: A Testbed for Evaluating Regional and Global Climate Modeling Systems at Cloud‐Resolving Scales

Abstract In this paper, we introduce a testbed for evaluating and comparing climate modeling systems at cloud resolving scales using hindcasts of the June 2012 North American derecho. To demonstrate its utility for model intercomparison, the testbed is applied to two models: the regionally‐refined Simple Cloud‐Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) at 6.5, 3.25 and 1.625 km grid spacing and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with 3.2 and 1.6 km grid spacing. We find the simulation results to be highly sensitive to the initial conditions (ICs), initialization time, and model configurations, with ICs from the Rapid Refresh producing the best simulation. Significant improvement is identified in both models as horizontal grid spacing is refined. While a propagation delay of approximately 2 hr is found in both models, SCREAM at 1.625 km simulates the observed bow echo structure of the derecho well and predicts strong surface gusts that exceed 30 m/s. In comparison, WRF has difficulty producing surface wind over 25 m/s, with wind gusts in WRF 42%–46% lower than in SCREAM. However, WRF has a lower bias in simulating cloud top temperature and extent, but overestimates precipitation intensity. Both models reproduce the observed outgoing longwave radiation spatial patterns well (Pearson correlation >0.88), but, compared with NEXRAD observations, simulate generally larger areas of composite radar reflectivity >40 dBZ and underestimate the precipitating area by ∼47%.

2012 North American derecho↗
DOE OSTI2020

Application of GOTHIC to Groundwater Transport Analysis - 20152

Migration of pollutants and hazardous wastes, potentially containing radioactive isotopes, via groundwater transport is a concern at most waste cleanup sites. Predictive analysis can be used to evaluate mitigating actions intended to minimize impact on the environment and public exposure. GOTHIC is a multipurpose thermal hydraulics code that is used extensively in the nuclear industry for design, licensing and operation evaluations. It combines the capabilities of typical one-dimensional system codes and the essential features of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes for three-dimensional analysis. There are other codes that are specifically developed for groundwater transport analysis and the results presented here are consistent with prior analyses. However, GOTHIC has some unique features that offer advantages for applications related to nuclear waste. Most importantly, it has been developed and maintained under a Quality Assurance program in compliance with the requirements of 10CFR50 Appendix B [2] and applicable portions of ASME NQA-1 [3] since 1995. Available GOTHIC capabilities that make the code especially useful for groundwater transport of nuclear materials include: - Tracking of any number of tracer elements for contaminants and other species of interest; - Radioactive decay and progeny of tracer elements; - Adsorption/desorption of tracer elements; - Tracking of any number of dissolved gases; - Release and absorption for dissolved gases; - Vapor phase tracking; - Non-Newtonian fluid modeling. The general porous body modeling approach makes GOTHIC well suited to groundwater transport analysis. The multi-region modeling approach used by GOTHIC simplifies model construction for regions of varying hydrologic characteristics and focuses the computational effort on regions of particular interest while simultaneously capturing the macroscopic response and any feedback effects across the larger domain. The applicability of GOTHIC to groundwater transport applications is demonstrated by comparing code results with available analytic or semi-analytic solutions for groundwater behavior. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Observed humidity trends in dry regions contradict climate models

Arid and semi-arid regions of the world are particularly vulnerable to greenhouse gas–driven hydroclimate change. Climate models are our primary tool for projecting the future hydroclimate that society in these regions must adapt to, but here, we present a concerning discrepancy between observed and model-based historical hydroclimate trends. Over the arid/semi-arid regions of the world, the predominant signal in all model simulations is an increase in atmospheric water vapor, on average, over the last four decades, in association with the increased water vapor–holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere. In observations, this increase in atmospheric water vapor has not happened, suggesting that the availability of moisture to satisfy the increased atmospheric demand is lower in reality than in models in arid/semi-arid regions. This discrepancy is most clear in locations that are arid/semi-arid year round, but it is also apparent in more humid regions during the most arid months of the year. Here, it indicates a major gap in our understanding and modeling capabilities which could have severe implications for hydroclimate projections, including fire hazard, moving forward.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1981

A proposal to conduct a Caribbean plate project involving the application of space technology to the study of Caribbean geology

The Caribbean plate project is designed to improve current understanding of geological resources and geological hazards within the Caribbean region. Models of mineral occurrence and genesis (including energy resources) on a regional scale, which contribute to nonrenewable resource investigations. Models of lithospheric stress and strain on a regional scale, which contribute to forecasting geological hazards such as earthquakes and major volcanic eruptions are developed. Geological information is synthesize, and research tools provided by space technology the study of the Earth's crust are used. The project was organized in a thematic fashion, to focus on specific geological aspects of the Caribbean plate which are considered to be key factors in developing the types of models described. The project adopts a synoptic perspective in seeking to characterize the three dimensional structure, composition, state of stress, and evolution of the entire Caribbean plate. Geological information derived from analysis of space acquired data is combined with information provided by conventional methods to obtain insight into the structure, composition, and evolution of the Earth's crust. In addition, very long baseline interferometry and laser ranging techniques, which are also based upon the use of space technology, obtain information concerning crustal motion that, in turn, provides insight into the distribution and localization of crustal stress.

Wadge, G.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Airport Choice in Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: An Application of the Conditional Logit Model

Using the conditional LOGIT model, this paper addresses the airport choice in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area. In this region, Guarulhos International Airport (GRU) and Congonhas Airport (CGH) compete for passengers flying to several domestic destinations. The airport choice is believed to be a result of the tradeoff passengers perform considering airport access characteristics, airline level of service characteristics and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. It was found that access time to the airports better explain the airport choice than access distance, whereas direct flight frequencies gives better explanation to the airport choice than the indirect (connections and stops) and total (direct plus indirect) flight frequencies. Out of 15 tested variables, passenger experience with the analyzed airports was the variable that best explained the airport choice in the region. Model specifications considering 1, 2 or 3 variables were tested. The model specification most adjusted to the observed data considered access time, direct flight frequencies in the travel period (morning or afternoon peak) and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. The influence of these variables was therefore analyzed across market segments according to departure airport and flight duration criteria. The choice of GRU (located neighboring Sao Paulo city) is not well explained by the rationality of access time economy and the increase of the supply of direct flight frequencies, while the choice of CGH (located inside Sao Paulo city) is. Access time was found to be more important to passengers flying shorter distances while direct flight frequencies in the travel period were more significant to those flying longer distances. Keywords: Airport choice, Multiple airport region, Conditional LOGIT model, Access time, Flight frequencies, Passenger experience with the analyzed airports, Transportation planning

Moreno, Marcelo Baena↗
NASA NTRS2006

Exploration of OMI Products for Air Quality Applications Through Comparisons with Models and Observations

The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board NASA s Aura satellite was launched in July 2004, and is now providing daily global observations of total column ozone, NO2, and SO2, as well as aerosol information. Algorithms have also been developed to produce daily tropospheric ozone and NO2 products. The tropospheric ozone product reported here is a tropospheric residual computed through use of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) ozone profile data to quantify stratospheric ozone. We are investigating the applicability of OMI products for use in air quality modeling, forecasting, and analysis. These investigations include comparison of the OMI tropospheric O3 and NO2 products with global and regional models and with lower tropospheric aircraft observations. Large-scale transport of pollution seen in the OM1 tropospheric O3 data is compared with output from NASA's Global Modeling Initiative global chemistry and transport model. On the regional scale we compare the OMI tropospheric O3 and NO2 with fields from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Environmental Protection Agency (NOAA/EPA) operational Eta/CMAQ air quality forecasting model over the eastern United States. This 12-km horizontal resolution model output is roughly of equivalent resolution to the OMI pixel data. Correlation analysis between lower tropospheric aircraft O3 profile data taken by the University of Maryland over the Mid-Atlantic States and OMI tropospheric column mean volume mixing ratio for O3 will be presented. These aircraft data are representative of the lowest 3 kilometers of the atmosphere, the region in which much of the locally-generated and regionally-transported ozone exists.

Pickering, K. E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Is Bias Correction in Dynamical Downscaling Defensible?

Localized projections of 21st‐century hydroclimate variables obtained from downscaling Global Climate Model (GCM) output are central to informing regional impact assessments and infrastructure planning. Regional GCM biases can be significant and, for dynamical downscaling, can be addressed either before (a priori) or after (a posteriori) downscaling. However, a priori bias correction (APBC) has generally unexplored effects on climate change signals. Here we analyze dynamically downscaled solutions of CMIP6 GCMs over the Western U.S., with and without APBC, and quantify APBC's impact on climate change signals relative to other irreducible uncertainty sources. For temperature and precipitation, the uncertainty introduced by APBC is negligible compared to that arising from GCM choice or internal variability. Furthermore, APBC greatly reduces regional models' unrealistically high snow‐water‐equivalent (SWE) biases that result directly from GCM errors. We leverage this finding to encourage the dynamical downscaling community to adopt APBC as a standard operating procedure.

Risser, Mark D.↗
NASA NTRS2016

GEM-CEDAR Challenge: Poynting Flux at DMSP and Modeled Joule Heat

Poynting flux into the ionosphere measures the electromagnetic energy coming from the magnetosphere. This energy flux can vary greatly between quiet times and geomagnetic active times. As part of the Geospace Environment Modeling-coupling energetics and dynamics of atmospheric regions modeling challenge, physics-based models of the 3-D ionosphere and ionospheric electrodynamics solvers of magnetosphere models that specify Joule heat and empirical models specifying Poynting flux were run for six geomagnetic storm events of varying intensity. We compared model results with Poynting flux values along the DMSP-15 satellite track computed from ion drift meter and magnetic field observations. Although being a different quantity, Joule heat can in practice be correlated to incoming Poynting flux because the energy is dissipated primarily in high latitudes where Poynting flux is being deposited. Within the physics-based model group, we find mixed results with some models overestimating Joule heat and some models agreeing better with observed Poynting flux rates as integrated over auroral passes. In contrast, empirical models tend to underestimate integrated Poynting flux values. Modeled Joule heat or Poynting flux patterns often resemble the observed Poynting flux patterns on a large scale, but amplitudes can differ by a factor of 2 or larger due to the highly localized nature of observed Poynting flux deposition that is not captured by the models. In addition, the positioning of modeled patterns appear to be randomly shifted against the observed Poynting flux energy input. This study is the first to compare Poynting flux and Joule heat in a large variety of models of the ionosphere.

Rastaetter, Lutz↗
NASA NTRS2020

Assessment of NO2 Observations During DISCOVER-AQ and KORUS-AQ Field Campaigns

NASA’s Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality (DISCOVER-AQ, conducted in 2011–2014) campaign in the United States and the joint NASA and National Institute of Environmental Research (NIER) Korea–United States Air Quality Study (KORUS-AQ, conducted in 2016) in South Korea were two field study programs that provided comprehensive, integrated data sets of airborne and surface observations of atmospheric constituents, including nitrogen dioxide (NO2), with the goal of improving the interpretation of spaceborne remote sensing data. Various types of NO2 measurements were made, including in situ concentrations and column amounts of NO2 using ground- and aircraft-based instruments, while NO2 column amounts were being derived from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the Aura satellite. This study takes advantage of these unique datasets by first evaluating in situ data taken from two different instruments on the same aircraft platform, comparing coincidently sampled profile-integrated columns from aircraft spirals with remotely sensed column observations from ground-based Pandora spectrometers, intercomparing column observations from the ground (Pandora), aircraft (in situ vertical spirals), and space (OMI), and evaluating NO2 simulations from coarse Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) and high-resolution regional models. We then use these data to interpret observed discrepancies due to differences in sampling and deficiencies in the data reduction process. Finally, we assess satellite retrieval sensitivity to observed and modeled a priori NO2 profiles. Contemporaneous measurements from two aircraft instruments that likely sample similar air masses generally agree very well but are also found to differ in integrated columns by up to 31.9 %. These show even larger differences with Pandora, reaching up to 53.9 %, potentially due to a combination of strong gradients in NO2 fields that could be missed by aircraft spirals and errors in the Pandora retrievals. OMI NO2 values are about a actor of 2 lower in these highly polluted environments due in part to inaccurate retrieval assumptions (e.g., a priori pro-files) but mostly to OMI’s large footprint (>312 km2).

Nitrogen dioxide↗
NASA NTRS2000

Regional Scale/Regional Climate Model Development and Its Applications at Goddard

A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation System (RELACS) is being developed and implemented at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model (Penn State/NCAR MM5) with improved physical processes and in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water/energy cycles in the Indo-China/South China Sea (SCS)/China, N. America and S. America region.

Tao, W.-K.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Energy Flow Continuity in Solar Active Regions

The models for sunspots are combined into an active region model with consideration for the energy flow beneath active regions. An apparent average energy balance exists between the sunspot deficit and the facular excess, i.e., no 11 year variations in solar luminosity associated with the activity centers. This is seen as a consequence of the upper convection zone's inability to store these significant amounts of energy for periods greatly in excess of weeks. This view is supported by observed active region behavior and detailed numerical modelling. Increases in facular and spot brightness are nearly commensurate, with the faculae outlasting the spots on time scales of the order of weeks to a couple of months. Foukal finds the radiation (deficit from a sunspot blocking model) recovers slowly on a timescale of approximately 83 days.

Schatten, K. H.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Five-day track forecast skills of WRF model for the western North Pacific tropical cyclones

In this study, the characteristics of simulated tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific by a regional model (the WRF Model) are verified. We utilize 12-km horizontal grid spacing, and simulations are integrated for 5 days from model initialization. A total of 125 forecasts are divided into five clusters through the k-means clustering method. The TCs in the cluster 1 and 2 (group 1), which includes many TCs moving northward in the subtropical region, generally have larger track errors than for TCs in cluster 3 and 4 (group 2). The optimal steering vector is used to examine the difference in the track forecast skill between these two groups. The bias in the steering vector between the model and analysis data is found to be more substantial for group 1 TCs than group 2 TCs. The larger steering vector difference for group 1 TCs indicates that environmental fields tend to be poorly simulated in group 1 TC cases. Furthermore, the residual terms, including the storm-scale process, asymmetric convection distribution, or beta-related effect, are also larger for group 1 TCs than group 2 TCs. Therefore, it is probable that the large track forecast error for group 1 TCs is a result of unreasonable simulations of environmental wind fields and residual processes in the midlatitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cross-field and parallel dynamics of SOL filaments in TCV

Using recently installed scrape-off layer diagnostics on the tokamak à configuration variable, we characterise the poloidal and parallel properties of turbulent filaments. We access both attached and detached divertor conditions across a wide range of core densities (f G ϵ [0.09, 0.66]) in diverted L-mode plasma configurations. With a gas puff imaging (GPI) diagnostic at the outer midplane we observed filaments with a monotonic increase in radial velocity (from 390 m s –1 to 800 m s –1 ) and cross-field radii (from 8.5 mm to 13.4 mm) with increasing core density. Interpreting the filament behaviour in the context of the two-region model, we find that they populate the ideal-interchange regime (C i ) in discharges at very low densities, and the resistive X (RX)-point regime for all other discharges. The scaling of filament velocity versus size shows good agreement with this interpretation. These results are discussed and compared with previous probe-based measurements for similar conditions, which mostly placed filaments in TCV in the resistive ballooning (RB) regime. In addition, for the first time in TCV, the parallel filament extension is studied by magnetically aligning the GPI measurements at the outboard midplane with a reciprocating probe in the divertor. In agreement with the filaments being in the ideal-interchange and the RX-point regimes, they are found to extend beyond the X-point into the outer divertor leg.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty in land carbon budget simulated by terrestrial biosphere models: the role of atmospheric forcing

Global estimates of the land carbon sink are often based on simulations by terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). The use of a large number of models that differ in their underlying hypotheses, structure and parameters is one way to assess the uncertainty in the historical land carbon sink. Here we show that the atmospheric forcing datasets used to drive these TBMs represent a significant source of uncertainty that is currently not systematically accounted for in land carbon cycle evaluations. We present results from three TBMs each forced with three different historical atmospheric forcing reconstructions over the period 1850–2015. We perform an analysis of variance to quantify the relative uncertainty in carbon fluxes arising from the models themselves, atmospheric forcing, and model-forcing interactions. We find that atmospheric forcing in this set of simulations plays a dominant role on uncertainties in global gross primary productivity (GPP) (75% of variability) and autotrophic respiration (90%), and a significant but reduced role on net primary productivity and heterotrophic respiration (30%). Atmospheric forcing is the dominant driver (52%) of variability for the net ecosystem exchange flux, defined as the difference between GPP and respiration (both autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration). In contrast, for wildfire-driven carbon emissions model uncertainties dominate and, as a result, model uncertainties dominate for net ecosystem productivity. At regional scales, the contribution of atmospheric forcing to uncertainty shows a very heterogeneous pattern and is smaller on average than at the global scale. We find that this difference in the relative importance of forcing uncertainty between global and regional scales is related to large differences in regional model flux estimates, which partially offset each other when integrated globally, while the flux differences driven by forcing are mainly consistent across the world and therefore add up to a larger fractional contribution to global uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1987

Asteroid 532 Herculina - Lightcurves, pole orientation and a model

While photoelectric lightcurves obtained for 532 Herculina in 1984 exhibit two maxima and two minima, the lightcurve has shown only one maximum and one minimum over the same rotation period in some other oppositions. The use of photometric astronomy yields a sidereal period of 0.3918711 + or 0.0000001 day, with a retrograde rotation for the north pole at 276 deg longitude and +1 deg latitude. A model consisting of a sphere with two dark regions that are each about 0.13 times the brightness of the surrounding surface is developed for Herculina, and it is shown that its generated lightcurves are consistent with both the observed amplitudes and the timings of extrema over the 28,630 sidereal rotations of 30 years. The lightcurves for the next four oppositions are predicted on the basis of the photometric astrometry pole and the two dark region model.

Taylor, R. C.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Near-Term Reliability and Resilience (NTRR) (Final Report)

The Near-Term Reliability and Resiliency (NTRR) was awarded in December 2020 as an inter-lab project to examine the reliability and resilience of the electricity grid and natural gas transportation availability. The project builds on studies conducted by The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and other non-governmental research and operational focused on reliability and resilience analyses challenges. The research was conceived to address near-term scenarios (within 10 years), when many local and regional policy transitions could begin to impact grid reliability, resilience, and supporting infrastructure availability. To integrate the natural gas interdependency, the team began with the generating capacity and demand projections from the 2020 NERC Long-Term Reliability Assessment and the Bulk Electric System (BES) transmission topologies defined in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) Anchor Data Set, Eastern Interconnection Reliability Assessment Group Multi-Regional Modeling Working Group (ERAG/MMWG) Data Set, the team calculated baseline regional power sector gas demands from present electricity delivery year through the end of delivery year 2030/31 by applying security constrained economic dispatch. This demand was compiled along with demand projections for regional residential, commercial, and industrial natural gas demands from the most recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook Reference Case into Deloitte’s MarketBuilder® North American Gas Model. Through the application of these demands, MarketBuilder® was projected the topology of natural gas flows in the natural gas pipeline network across the interconnected North American system along with regional natural gas prices that may be seen by market participants in future years Additionally, contingencies and sensitivities focused on the built models of the Eastern Interconnection (EI) and Western Interconnection (WI). They address challenges from the following with the outcomes being an identification of performance under the extreme conditions and an identification of potential grid weaknesses that should be addressed to mitigate the reduced performance and improve the resilience and reliability of the specific regions as well as the National Grid: • Weather events including extreme heat, extreme cold, high wind, no wind, wind and solar forecasting errors, and wildfires. • Gas availability, factoring in supply disruption (contractual and physical), seasonal availability constraints, and infrastructure limitations; and • Transmission availability and congestion.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
NASA NTRS2008

Multispectral Emission of the Sun during the First Whole Sun Month: Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations

We demonstrate that a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the corona can model its global plasma density and temperature structure with sufficient accuracy to reproduce many of the multispectral properties of the corona observed in extreme ultraviolet (EW) and X-ray emission. The key ingredient to this new type of global MHD model is the inclusion of energy transport processes (coronal heating, anisotropic thermal conduction, and radiative losses) in the energy equation. The calculation of these processes has previously been confined to one-dimensional loop models, idealized two-dimensional computations, and three-dimensional active region models. We refer to this as the thermodynamic MHD model, and we apply it to the time period of Carrington rotation 1913 (1996 August 22 to September 18). The form of the coronal heating term strongly affects the plasma density and temperature of the solutions. We perform our calculation for three different empirical heating models: (1) a heating function exponentially decreasing in radius; (2) the model of Schrijver et al.; and (3) a model reproducing the heating properties of the quiet Sun and active regions. We produce synthetic emission images from the density and temperature calculated with these three heating functions and quantitatively compare them with observations from E W Imaging Telescope on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and the soft X-ray telescope on Yohkoh. Although none of the heating models provide a perfect match, heating models 2 and 3 provide a reasonable match to the observations.

Lionello, Roberto↗