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FLOWERS AEP: An Analytical Model for Wind Farm Layout Optimization

Annual energy production (AEP) is commonly used in objective functions for wind farm layout optimization. AEP is proportional to wind farm power production integrated over an annual distribution of free-stream wind conditions. Physics-based estimates of wind farm power production typically rely on low-fidelity engineering wake models that approximate the steady-state wind farm flow field. AEP estimates are then obtained by performing independent simulations for discrete wind conditions and using rectangular quadrature to account for each condition's expected frequency of occurrence. Depending on the number of simulated discrete wind conditions, this numerical integral could be hampered by poor accuracy or high computational costs. The FLOWERS AEP model instead poses an analytical integral of the engineering wake model over the variable wind conditions, yielding a closed-form, analytical function for wind farm AEP. This paper derives the analytical functions for FLOWERS AEP and its derivatives with respect to turbine position, which are useful for gradient-based wind farm layout optimization, in nondimensional form. We then analyze the benefits of the FLOWERS AEP model over conventional reference models, focusing on its low cost, adequate wake loss predictions, and smooth design space. Although the FLOWERS approach is found to predict the exact value of AEP with some error relative to the reference model (within 14% on average), it dramatically reduces computation time by an order of magnitude, produces a qualitatively similar design space at relatively low resolution, and yields comparable optimal layouts. This significant speed improvement is critical in layout optimization applications, where determining an optimal layout in an efficient manner is more important than precise AEP prediction.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Predicting oropharyngeal tumor volume throughout the course of radiation therapy from pretreatment computed tomography data using general linear models

Purpose: The purpose of this work was to develop and evaluate the accuracy of several predictive models of variation in tumor volume throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Nineteen patients with oropharyngeal cancers were imaged daily with CT-on-rails for image-guided alignment per an institutional protocol. The daily volumes of 35 tumors in these 19 patients were determined and used to generate (1) a linear model in which tumor volume changed at a constant rate, (2) a general linear model that utilized the power fit relationship between the daily and initial tumor volumes, and (3) a functional general linear model that identified and exploited the primary modes of variation between time series describing the changing tumor volumes. Primary and nodal tumor volumes were examined separately. The accuracy of these models in predicting daily tumor volumes were compared with those of static and linear reference models using leave-one-out cross-validation. Results: In predicting the daily volume of primary tumors, the general linear model and the functional general linear model were more accurate than the static reference model by 9.9% (range: −11.6%–23.8%) and 14.6% (range: −7.3%–27.5%), respectively, and were more accurate than the linear reference model by 14.2% (range: −6.8%–40.3%) and 13.1% (range: −1.5%–52.5%), respectively. In predicting the daily volume of nodal tumors, only the 14.4% (range: −11.1%–20.5%) improvement in accuracy of the functional general linear model compared to the static reference model was statistically significant. Conclusions: A general linear model and a functional general linear model trained on data from a small population of patients can predict the primary tumor volume throughout the course of radiation therapy with greater accuracy than standard reference models. These more accurate models may increase the prognostic value of information about the tumor garnered from pretreatment computed tomography images and facilitate improved treatment management.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Modeling mechanical behavior of an additively manufactured metal structure with local texture variations: a study on model form error

Here, the repetitive rapid solidification that occurs in metal additive manufacturing (AM) processes creates microstructures distinctly different from wrought materials. Local variability in AM microstructures (either by design or unintentional) raises questions as to how AM structures should be modeled at the part-scale to minimize modeling error. The key goal of this work is to demonstrate a posteriori error estimation applied to an AM part. It is assumed that the actual microstructure is unknown and an approximate, spatially uniform material model is used. Error bounds are calculated for many reference models based on AM microstructures with elongated grain morphology and localized or global fiber textures during a post-processing step. The current findings promote confidence that a posteriori model form error estimation could be used effectively in mechanical performance simulations of AM parts to quickly obtain quantitative error metrics between an approximate model result and many microstructure-based reference models. The a posteriori error estimation introduces significant time savings compared to computing the full reference model solutions. Tight bounds on model form error are obtained when texture variations in the reference models occur on large length scales. For materials with property variation at small length scales, multi-scale error estimation techniques are needed to properly account for the many interfaces present between areas with different properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Petroleum Refinery Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model User Reference Guide

The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models, developed through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), are user-friendly tools utilized to estimate the economic impacts at the local level of constructing and operating fuel and power generation projects for a range of conventional and renewable energy technologies. The JEDI Petroleum Refinery Model User Reference Guide was developed to assist users in employing and understanding the model. This guide provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the parameters and references used to develop the cost data utilized in the model. This guide also provides basic instruction on model add-in features, operation of the model, and a discussion of how the results should be interpreted. Based on project-specific inputs from the user, the model estimates job creation, earning and output (total economic activity) for a given petroleum refinery. This includes the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts to the local economy associated with the refinery's construction and operation phases. Project cost and job data used in the model are derived from the most current cost estimations available. Local direct and indirect economic impacts are estimated using economic multipliers derived from IMPLAN software. By determining the regional economic impacts and job creation for a proposed refinery, the JEDI Petroleum Refinery model can be used to field questions about the added value refineries may bring to the local community.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM) Advancements and Additions

Introduction:The Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM) is one of the most widely used engineering models of the atmosphere. GRAM development and maintenance has been led by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). The NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD) has provided funding support to upgrade the GRAMs since Fiscal Year 2018. NASA Langley Research Center has been working with MSFC on the upgrades.This presentation will provide details regarding the upgrades that have been made to the existing GRAMs, the development of new GRAMs, as well as the ongoing objectives, tasks, and milestones re-lated to the GRAM upgrades funded by NASA SMD. GRAM: The GRAMs are engineering-oriented atmospheric models that estimate mean values and statistical variations of the atmospheric properties for numerous planetary destinations.They provide mean values and variability for any point in the atmosphere as well as seasonal, geographic, and altitude variations. GRAM outputs include atmospheric density, temperature, pressure, winds, and chemical composition along a user-defined path.Theyhave been widely used by the engineering community because of their ability to create realistic dispersions. GRAMs have been integrated into high fidelity flight dynamic simulations of launch, entry, descent and landing (EDL), aerobraking and aerocapture. MSFC has been developing and updating GRAMs since 1974; GRAMs are currently available for Earth, Mars, Venus, Neptune, and Titan. GRAM Upgrade Status: Code Moderization.The planetary GRAMs are being rearchitected from Fortran to a common object-ori-entedC++ framework called the GRAM Suite. This new architecture creates a common GRAM library of data models and utilities. The first C++ releases of the existing planetary GRAMs (Mars, Venus, Neptune, and Titan-GRAM) in the GRAM Suite are straight conversions from the latest Fortran version. Model Upgrades.The focus of the model upgrade task is to improve the atmosphere models in the existing GRAMs and to establish a foundation for developing GRAMs for additional destinations. The GRAM ephemerishas been upgraded to the NASA Navigation and Ancillary Information Facility (NAIF) SPICE toolkit (version N0066). The calculation of the speed of sound has also been improved in the GRAMs. The GRAM team has received updated Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) datasets from NASA Ames Research Center. Mars Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (M-GITM) data is being obtained toreplace the Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model (MTGCM) data in legacy Mars-GRAM. M-GITM and updated MGCM data will be incorporated into a future GRAM Suite release.Twoprojects that will improve the atmospheric model data in the GRAMs have been funded by the GRAM team since Fiscal Year 2020. Sanjay Limaye and Patrick Fry at the University of Wisconsin are reanalyzing the Venus Express radio occultation observations and analyzing the Akatsukiradio occultation observations.This will lead tothe calculation of number density, temperature, and pressure profiles for the 40-90 km altitude range. Kunio Sayanagi, Justin Garland, and Ryan McCabeat Hampton University are developing empirical global models for Venus,Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, and Titan that incorporates the latest data available for each of these planetary destinations. Upgraded GRAM Releases. GRAM Suite Version 1.0 was released in May 2020 and contains the rearchitected Neptune-GRAM, including the common GRAM framework and planet–specific code. GRAM Suite Version 1.1 was released in September 2020 and addedthe rearchitected Titan-GRAM to the GRAM Suite. A User Guide and Programmer’s Manualarereleased with all GRAMs. The rearchitected Mars and Venus-GRAMs will be released in upcomingversions of the GRAM Suite. New GRAM Releases. New GRAMs have been de-veloped for Uranus and Jupiter. Uranus-GRAM is based on an individual profile generated by Gary Allen (ARC) from Voyager 2 occultation data and will be released in GRAM Suite Version 1.2. Jupiter-GRAM is based on individual profile produced from Al Seiff’s Ju-piter model[1].Jupiter-GRAM will be released in GRAM Suite Version 1.3. Saturn-GRAM is currently under development and will be released in a future version of the GRAM Suite. Conclusions: GRAMs are vital and frequently used toolsets. Releases of the GRAM Suite, upgrades of the existing planetary GRAMs, and development of new planetary GRAMs are ongoing. NASA SMD funding has been essential to addressing current limitations and accomplishing GRAM developmental goals. Continua-tion ofSMD fundingwill ensure the development, up-grades, and maintenance of the GRAMs. References: [1] Seiff, A., et al. (1998) JGR, 103, 22,857-22,889. Acknowledgments: The authors gratefully acknowledge support from the NASA SMD

atmospheric models↗

Neural Flight Control System

The Neural Flight Control System (NFCS) was developed to address the need for control systems that can be produced and tested at lower cost, easily adapted to prototype vehicles and for flight systems that can accommodate damaged control surfaces or changes to aircraft stability and control characteristics resulting from failures or accidents. NFCS utilizes on a neural network-based flight control algorithm which automatically compensates for a broad spectrum of unanticipated damage or failures of an aircraft in flight. Pilot stick and rudder pedal inputs are fed into a reference model which produces pitch, roll and yaw rate commands. The reference model frequencies and gains can be set to provide handling quality characteristics suitable for the aircraft of interest. The rate commands are used in conjunction with estimates of the aircraft s stability and control (S&C) derivatives by a simplified Dynamic Inverse controller to produce virtual elevator, aileron and rudder commands. These virtual surface deflection commands are optimally distributed across the aircraft s available control surfaces using linear programming theory. Sensor data is compared with the reference model rate commands to produce an error signal. A Proportional/Integral (PI) error controller "winds up" on the error signal and adds an augmented command to the reference model output with the effect of zeroing the error signal. In order to provide more consistent handling qualities for the pilot, neural networks learn the behavior of the error controller and add in the augmented command before the integrator winds up. In the case of damage sufficient to affect the handling qualities of the aircraft, an Adaptive Critic is utilized to reduce the reference model frequencies and gains to stay within a flyable envelope of the aircraft.

Gundy-Burlet, Karen↗

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) 2024: User Guide

This Technical Memorandum (TM) presents the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) 2024 and its updated features. Mars-GRAM is an engineering-oriented atmospheric model that estimates mean values and statistical variations of atmospheric properties for Mars. This TM summarizes the atmospheric data model in Mars-GRAM and provides a guide for the user to obtain, set up, and run the code in various configurations. Additional details regarding the Mars-GRAM input and output files and how to interpret Mars-GRAM results are also provided.

atmospheric density↗

Jupiter Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Jupiter-GRAM): User Guide

This Technical Memorandum (TM) presents the Jupiter Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Jupiter-GRAM) and the updated features of the GRAMs. Jupiter-GRAM is an engineering-oriented atmospheric model that estimates mean values of atmospheric properties for Jupiter. This TM summarizes the atmospheric data model in Jupiter-GRAM and provides a guide for the user to obtain, set up, and run the code in various configurations. Additional details regarding the Jupiter-GRAM input and output files and how to interpret Jupiter-GRAM results are also provided.

atmospheric models↗

Earth Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Earth-GRAM): User Guide

This Technical Memorandum (TM) presents the Earth Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Earth-GRAM) and the updated features of the GRAMs. Earth-GRAM is an engineering-oriented atmospheric model that estimates mean values and statistical variations of atmospheric properties for Earth. This TM summarizes the atmospheric data model in Earth-GRAM and provides a guide for the user to obtain, set up, and run the code in various configurations. Additional details regarding the Earth-GRAM input and output files and how to interpret Earth-GRAM results are also provided.

Atmospheric Models↗

Venus Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Venus-GRAM): User Guide

This Technical Memorandum (TM) presents the Venus Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Venus-GRAM) and the updated features of the GRAMs. Venus-GRAM is an engineering-oriented atmospheric model that estimates mean values and statistical variations of atmospheric properties for Venus. This TM summarizes the atmospheric data model in Venus-GRAM and provides a guide for the user to obtain, set up, and run the code in various configurations. Additional details regarding the Venus-GRAM input and output files and how to interpret Venus-GRAM results are also provided.

atmospheric models↗

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM): User Guide

This Technical Memorandum (TM) presents the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) and the updated features of the GRAMs. Mars-GRAM is an engineering-oriented atmospheric model that estimates mean values and statistical variations of atmospheric properties for Mars. This TM summarizes the atmospheric data model in Mars-GRAM and provides a guide for the user to obtain, set up, and run the code in various configurations. Additional details regarding the Mars-GRAM input and output files and how to interpret Mars-GRAM results are also provided.

atmospheric models↗

Evaluating Mars Science Laboratory Landing Sites with the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2005)

The Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) is an engineering-level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. Mars-GRAM s perturbation modeling capability is commonly used, in a Monte-Carlo mode, to perform high fidelity engineering end-to-end simulations for entry, descent, and landing (EDL) [1]. From the surface to 80 km altitude, Mars-GRAM is based on the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM). Mars-GRAM and MGCM use surface topography from Mars Global Surveyor Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA), with altitudes referenced to the MOLA areoid, or constant potential surface. Traditional Mars-GRAM options for representing the mean atmosphere along entry corridors include: (1) Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) mapping years 1 and 2, with Mars-GRAM data coming from NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) results driven by observed TES dust optical depth or (2) TES mapping year 0, with user-controlled dust optical depth and Mars-GRAM data interpolated from MGCM model results driven by selected values of globally-uniform dust optical depth. Mars-GRAM 2005 has been validated [2] against Radio Science data, and both nadir and limb data from TES [3]. There are several new features included in Mars-GRAM 2005. The first is the option to use input data sets from MGCM model runs that were designed to closely simulate conditions observed during the first two years of TES observations at Mars. The TES Year 1 option includes values from April 1999 through January 2001. The TES Year 2 option includes values from February 2001 through December 2002. The second new feature is the option to read and use any auxiliary profile of temperature and density versus altitude. In exercising the auxiliary profile Mars-GRAM option, values from the auxiliary profile replace data from the original MGCM databases. Some examples of auxiliary profiles include data from TES nadir or limb observations and Mars mesoscale model output at a particular location and time. The final new feature is the addition of two Mars-GRAM parameters that allow standard deviations of Mars-GRAM perturbations to be adjusted. The parameter rpscale can be used to scale density perturbations up or down while rwscale can be used to scale wind perturbations.

Justh, H. L.↗

Venus Global Reference Atmospheric Model Status and Planned Updates

The Venus Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Venus-GRAM) was originally developed in 2004 under funding from NASA's In Space Propulsion (ISP) Aerocapture Project to support mission studies at the planet. Many proposals, including NASA New Frontiers and Discovery, as well as other studies have used Venus-GRAM to design missions and assess system robustness. After Venus-GRAM's release in 2005, several missions to Venus have generated a wealth of additional atmospheric data, yet few model updates have been made to Venus-GRAM. This paper serves to address three areas: (1) to present the current status of Venus-GRAM, (2) to identify new sources of data and other upgrades that need to be incorporated to maintain Venus-GRAM credibility and (3) to identify additional Venus-GRAM options and features that could be included to increase its capability. This effort will de-pend on understanding the needs of the user community, obtaining new modeling data and establishing a dedicated funding source to support continual up-grades. This paper is intended to initiate discussion that can result in an upgraded and validated Venus-GRAM being available to future studies and NASA proposals.

Justh, H. L.↗

Venus Global Reference Atmospheric Model Status and Planned Updates

The Venus Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Venus-GRAM) was originally developed in 2004 under funding from NASA's In Space Propulsion (ISP) Aerocapture Project to support mission studies at the planet. Many proposals, including NASA New Frontiers and Discovery, as well as other studies have used Venus-GRAM to design missions and assess system robustness. After Venus-GRAM's release in 2005, several missions to Venus have generated a wealth of additional atmospheric data, yet few model updates have been made to Venus-GRAM. This paper serves to address three areas: (1) to present the current status of Venus-GRAM, (2) to identify new sources of data and other upgrades that need to be incorporated to maintain Venus-GRAM credibility and (3) to identify additional Venus-GRAM options and features that could be included to increase its capability. This effort will de-pend on understanding the needs of the user community, obtaining new modeling data and establishing a dedicated funding source to support continual up-grades. This paper is intended to initiate discussion that can result in an upgraded and validated Venus-GRAM being available to future studies and NASA proposals.

Justh, H. L.↗

Upper atmosphere models and research; Proceedings of Workshops X and XI and the Topical Meeting of the 27th COSPAR Plenary Meeting, Espoo, Finland, July 18-29, 1988

Topics are presented on the updating of CIRA, the trace constituents of the middle and upper atmosphere, and the localized response of the lower thermosphere and ionosphere at high latitude. Papers are presented on mean temperature fields in the lower thermosphere, a comparison of the thermosphere total density model TD 88 with CIRA 86, improved reference models for the middle-atmosphere ozone, a reference model for CH4 and N2O and trends, reference models for thermospheric NO, and a simulation of odd nitrogen distribution in the thermosphere. Other papers are on the response of the ionosphere-thermosphere system to magnetospheric forcing, microinstabilities driven by nonthermal plasma in the high-latitude F-region, the characteristics of the high-latitude trough, the lower thermospheric coupling study of the CEDAR and WITS programs, and numerical simulations of the seasonal response of the thermosphere to propagating tides.

Rycroft, M. J.↗

A Revised Thermosphere for the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM Version 3.4)

This report describes the newly-revised model thermosphere for the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM, Version 3.4). It also provides descriptions of other changes made to the program since publication of the programmer's guide for Mars-GRAM Version 3.34. The original Mars-GRAM model thermosphere was based on the global-mean model of Stewart. The revised thermosphere is based largely on parameterizations derived from output data from the three-dimensional Mars Thermospheric Global Circulation Model (MTGCM). The new thermospheric model includes revised dependence on the 10.7 cm solar flux for the global means of exospheric temperature, temperature of the base of the thermosphere, and scale height for the thermospheric temperature variations, as well as revised dependence on orbital position for global mean height of the base of the thermosphere. Other features of the new thermospheric model are: (1) realistic variations of temperature and density with latitude and time of day, (2) more realistic wind magnitudes, based on improved estimates of horizontal pressure gradients, and (3) allowance for user-input adjustments to the model values for mean exospheric temperature and for height and temperature at the base of the thermosphere. Other new features of Mars-GRAM 3.4 include: (1) allowance for user-input values of climatic adjustment factors for temperature profiles from the surface to 75 km, and (2) a revised method for computing the sub-solar longitude position in the 'ORBIT' subroutine.

Justus, C. G.↗

GLOBAL REFERENCE ATMOSPHERIC MODELS FOR AEROASSIST APPLICATIONS

Aeroassist is a broad category of advanced transportation technology encompassing aerocapture, aerobraking, aeroentry, precision landing, hazard detection and avoidance, and aerogravity assist. The eight destinations in the Solar System with sufficient atmosphere to enable aeroassist technology are Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, and Saturn's moon Titan. Engineering-level atmospheric models for five of these targets - Earth, Mars, Titan, Neptune, and Venus - have been developed at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. These models are useful as tools in mission planning and systems analysis studies associated with aeroassist applications. The series of models is collectively named the Global Reference Atmospheric Model or GRAM series. An important capability of all the models in the GRAM series is their ability to simulate quasi-random perturbations for Monte Carlo analysis in developing guidance, navigation and control algorithms, for aerothermal design, and for other applications sensitive to atmospheric variability. Recent example applications are discussed.

Duvall, Aleta↗