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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Real-time biomass feedstock particle quality detection using image analysis and machine vision

Abstract A common and costly challenge in the nascent biorefinery industry is the consistent handling and conveyance of biomass feedstock materials, which can vary widely in their chemical, physical, and mechanical properties. Solutions to cope with varying feedstock qualities will be required, including advanced process controls to adjust equipment and reject feedstocks that do not meet a quality standard. In this work, we present and evaluate methods to autonomously assess corn stover feedstock quality in real time and provide data to process controls with low-cost camera hardware. We explore the use of neural networks to classify feedstocks based on actual processing behavior and pixel matrix feature parameterization to further assess particle attributes that may explain the variable processing behavior. We used the pretrained ResNet neural network coupled with a gated recurrent unit (GRU) time-series classifier trained on our image data, resulting in binary classification of feedstock anomalies with favorable performance. The textural aspects of the image data were statistically analyzed to determine if the textural features were predictive of operational disruptions. The significant textural features were angular second moment, prominence, mean height of surface profile, mean resultant vector, shade, skewness, variation of the polar facet orientation, and direction of azimuthal facets. Expansion of these models is recommended across a wider variety of labeled feedstock images of different qualities and species to develop a more robust tool that may be deployed using low-cost cameras within biorefineries.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust deep learning framework for constitutive relations modeling

Modeling the full-range deformation behaviors of materials under complex loading and materials conditions is a significant challenge for constitutive relations (CRs) modeling. Here, we propose a general encoder-decoder deep learning framework that can model high-dimensional stress-strain data and complex loading histories with robustness and universal capability. The framework employs an encoder to project high-dimensional input information (e.g., loading history, loading conditions, and materials information) to a lower-dimensional hidden space and a decoder to map the hidden representation to the stress of interest. We evaluated various encoder architectures, including gated recurrent unit (GRU), GRU with attention, temporal convolutional network (TCN), and the Transformer encoder, on two complex stress-strain datasets that were designed to include a wide range of complex loading histories and loading conditions. All architectures achieved excellent test results with an root-mean-square error (RMSE) below 1 MPa. Additionally, we analyzed the capability of the different architectures to make predictions on out-of-domain applications, with an uncertainty estimation based on deep ensembles. The proposed approach provides a robust alternative to empirical/semi-empirical models for CRs modeling, offering the potential for more accurate and efficient materials design and optimization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

A deep learning upscaling framework: Reactive transport and mineral precipitation in fracture-matrix systems

Pore-scale modeling has limited applicability at large scales due to its high computational cost. One common approach to upscale pore-scale models is the use of effective medium theories, which homogenize small-scale features in a porous structure and characterize the medium by macroscale properties (e.g., permeability) and equations (e.g., Darcy’s law). However, there are classes of physical processes for which effective medium approximations may become inaccurate, e.g., mineral precipitation and clogging during reactive transport. We have developed a deep learning upscaling framework, in which pore-scale modeling is directly employed in macroscale systems, without relying on effective medium approximations. The upscaling framework is first developed for general multiscale systems and then applied to modeling reactive transport with mineral precipitation in the altered layer in fracture-matrix structures. Solute transport from the fractures to the matrix is modeled as a wall boundary condition for the fractures, which, in turn, is predicted by recurrent neural networks using the concentration histories at the fracture-matrix boundary. Specifically, we consider a meter-scale fracture network embedded in sandstones, where the smallest feature is at the micron scale. Here the proposed framework allows us to span five orders of magnitude in length scales by capturing mineral precipitation in the altered layer of the rock matrix at the pore scale across the entire meter-scale fracture network.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development and assessment of prognosis digital twin in a NAMAC system

The nearly autonomous management and control (NAMAC) system is a comprehensive control system to assist plant operations by furnishing control recommendations to operators. Prognosis digital twin (DT-P) is a critical component in NAMAC for predicting action effects and supporting NAMAC decision-making during normal and accident scenarios. To quantifying and reducing uncertainty of machine-learning-based DT-Ps in multi-step predictions, this work investigates and derives insights from the application of three techniques for optimizing the performance of DT-P by long short-term memory recurrent neural networks, including manual search, sequential model-based optimization, and physics-guided machine learning. Finally, sequential model-based optimization and physics-guide machine learning result in smallest errors when the predicting transients are similar to the training data.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data coverage assessment on neural network based digital twins for autonomous control system

We report in a recently developed Nearly Autonomous Management and Control (NAMAC) system, neural networks (NNs) are used to develop digital twins for diagnosis (DT-Ds). However, NNs are not usually considered extrapolation models and may result in large errors if they are applied to unseen data outside the training data (uncovered). In this study, we propose a data coverage assessment (DCA) to determine if the NN-based DT-Ds are extrapolated based on their epistemic uncertainty. The uncertainty quantification algorithms and uncertainty thresholds are selected based on the confusion matrix of classifying evaluation data into covered or uncovered data. To demonstrate the adaptability of the proposed framework, we applied it to a basic feedforward neural network and a more advanced recurrent neural network based on a more nonlinear database. Case studies show that the proposed framework can distinguish unseen data for both basic and advanced applications with proper uncertainty quantification algorithms and thresholds.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Autonomous control for Heat-Pipe microreactor using Data-Driven model predictive control

To enable a self-regulating capability for heat pipe (HP) microreactors, an anticipatory control strategy achieved via model predictive control (MPC) could proactively respond to potential disturbances and deviations in operating setpoints. This paper demonstrates data-driven methods for predicting the distribution and transient of temperatures and heat fluxes at selected components and regions in a 37-HP system, based on which the optimal control actions in response to changes in user-defined setpoints can be found. We present the development and validation of linear state-space model, feedfoward, and recurrent neural networks. Here, we compare the performance of MPCs with different modeling approaches in terms of following setpoints for temperatures and averaged output heat fluxes. The accuracies of the three data-driven models are similar, but the control actions initiated by neural-network-based MPC can better adapt to drastic changes in setpoints yet generate the smallest errors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Large-eddy simulation study on cycle-to-cycle variation of knocking combustion in a spark-ignition engine

The cycle-to-cycle variation in the knock intensity is commonly encountered under abnormal combustion conditions. The severity of these abnormal combustion events can vary significantly, and the efficiency of engines at high loads is limited in practice by heavy knocking phenomena. Since, a thorough analysis of such recurrent but non-cyclic phenomena via experiments alone becomes highly cumbersome, in the present work, a multi-cycle large-eddy simulation study was performed to quantitatively predict cyclic variability in the combustion process and cyclic knock intensity variability in a direct injection spark-ignition engine. To account for the turbulence-chemistry interaction effects on flame propagation, the G-equation combustion model was used. Detailed chemistry was solved outside the flame front with a toluene primary reference fuel skeletal kinetic mechanism. For both the mild knock and heavy knock conditions, the numerical results were validated against experimental measurements. Based on the simulation results, a correlation analysis was performed considering combustion phasing, peak cylinder pressure and maximum amplitude of pressure oscillation. Furthermore, a detailed three-dimensional spatial analysis illustrated the evolution of auto-ignition kernel development and propagation of pressure waves during knocking combustion for three typical cycles with different knock intensities. In this process, it was found that an early occurrence of auto-ignition in the end gas was prone to high knock intensity. Although multiple auto-ignition kernels were observed in different cycles, the degree of coupling between chemical heat release and pressure waves varied, thereby leading to different maximum amplitude of pressure oscillation values.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

PANDEMIC: Occupancy driven predictive ventilation control to minimize energy consumption and infection risk

During the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic, governments around the world have formulated policies requiring ventilation systems to operate at a higher outdoor fresh air flow rate for a sufficient time, which has led to a sharp increase in building energy consumption. Therefore, it is necessary to identify an energy-efficient ventilation strategy to reduce the risk of infection. In this study, we developed an occupant-number-based model predictive control (OBMPC) algorithm for building ventilation systems. First, we collected the occupancy and Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system (HVAC) data from March to July 2021. Then, four different models (Auto regression moving average-based multilayer perceptron (ARMA_MLP), Recurrent neural networks (RNN), Long short-term memory networks (LSTM), and Nonhomogeneous Markov with change points detection (NH_Markov)) were used to predict the number of room occupants from 15 min to 24 h ahead with an interval output. We found that each model could predict the number of occupants with 85% accuracy using a one-person offset. Furthermore, the accuracy of 15 min of the ahead prediction could reach 95% with a one-person offset, but none of them could track abrupt changes. The occupancy prediction results were used to calculate the ventilation demand using the Wells-Riley equation, and the upper bound can maintain an infection risk lower than 2% for 93% of the day. This OBMPC model could reduce the coil load by 52.44% and shift the peak load by 3 h up to 5 kW compared with 24 × 7 h full outdoor air (OA) system when people wear masks in the space. The occupancy prediction uncertainty could cause a 9% to 26% difference in demand ventilation, a 0.3°C to 2.4°C difference in zone temperature, a 28.5% to 44.5% difference in outdoor airflow rate, and a 10.7% to 28.2% difference in coil load.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling the impact of extreme summer drought on conventional and renewable generation capacity: Methods and a case study on the Eastern U.S. power system

Across recent years, there has been a growing prevalence of extreme weather events throughout the United States, posing significant challenges to the reliable and resilient operation of power systems. Specifically, summer droughts threaten to severely reduce available generation capacity to meet regional electricity demand, potentially leading to power outages. This underscores the importance of accurate resource adequacy (RA) assessment to ensure the reliable operation of the nation’s energy infrastructure. Accurately evaluating the usable capacity of regional generation fleets is a challenging undertaking due to the intricate interactions between power systems and hydro-climatic systems. Here, this paper proposes a systematic and analytical framework to evaluate the impacts of extreme summer drought events on the available capacity of various generating technologies, incorporating both meteorological and hydrologic factors. The framework provides detailed plant-level capacity derating models for hydroelectric, thermoelectric, and renewable power plants, facilitating evaluations with high temporal and spatial resolution. The application of the proposed impact assessment framework to the 2025 generation fleet of the real-world power system within the PJM and SERC regions of the United States yields insightful results. By analyzing the daily usable capacity of 6,055 at-risk generators across the study region, it shows that the summer capacity deration is most significant for hydroelectric and once-through thermal power plants, followed by recirculating thermal power plants and combustion turbines. In the event of the recurrence of the 2007 southeastern summer drought event in the near future, the generation fleet could experience a substantial reduction in available capacity, estimated at approximately 8.5 GW, compared to typical summer conditions. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the usable capacity of the generation fleet would suffer an even more significant decrease under conditions of increasingly severe summer droughts. The proposed approach and the findings of this study provide valuable methodologies and insights, empowering stakeholders to bolster the resilience of power systems against the potentially devastating effects of future extreme drought events.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning-based ethylene and carbon monoxide estimation, real-time optimization, and multivariable feedback control of an experimental electrochemical reactor

Electrochemical reduction of CO 2 gas is a novel CO 2 utilization technique that has the potential to mitigate the global climate crisis caused by anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, and enable the large-scale storage of energy generated from renewable sources in the form of carbon-based chemicals and fuels. However, due to the complexity of the electrochemical reactions, the explicit first-principles models for CO2 reduction are not available yet, and there has been a limited effort to develop process modeling, optimization and control of CO 2 electrochemical reactors. To this end, a rotating cylinder electrode (RCE) reactor has been constructed at UCLA to understand the mass transfer and reaction kinetics effects separately on the productivity. In the RCE reactor, the applied potential strongly influences the reaction energetics and the electrode rotation speed affects the hydrodynamic boundary layer and modifies the film mass transfer coefficient, which involves convective and diffusive transport. Further, the present work aims to develop a multi-input multi-output (MIMO) control scheme for the RCE reactor that integrates techniques from artificial and recurrent neural network modeling, nonlinear optimization, and process controller design. Specifically, production rates of two products from the experimental reactor, ethylene and carbon monoxide, are controlled by manipulating two inputs, applied potential and catalyst rotation speed. Process dynamics and controllability are analyzed, a feedback control strategy is designed and the controllers are tuned accordingly. The experimental electrochemical cell is employed to gather data for process modeling and implement the multivariable control system. Finally, the experimental results are presented which demonstrate excellent closed-loop performance by the control system and regulation of the outputs at three different set-points including an economically-optimal set-point.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Agent-based simulation and child protection systems: Rationale, implementation, and verification

Simulation models are an important tool used in health care and other disciplines to support operational research and decision-making. In the child protection literature, simulation models are an under-utilized source of research evidence. Here, in this paper, we describe the rationale for and the development of an agent-based simulation of a child protection system in the US. Using the investigation, prevention service, and placement histories of 600,000 children served in an urban child welfare system, we walk the reader through the development of a prototype known as OSPEDALE. The governing equations built into OSPEDALE probabilistically simulate the onset of investigations. Then, drawing from empirical survival distributions, the governing equations trace the probability of subsequent interactions with the system (recurrence of maltreatment, service referrals, and placement) conditional on the characteristics of children, their assessed risk level, and prior child protection system involvement. As an initial test of OSPEDALE's utility, we compare empirical admission counts with counts generated from OSPEDALE. Though the verification step is admittedly simple, the comparison shows that OSPEDALE replicates the empirical count of new admissions closely enough to justify further investment in OSPEDALE. Management of public child protection systems is increasingly research evidence-dependent. The emphasis on research evidence as a decision-support tool has elevated evidence acquired through randomized clinical trials. Though important, the evidence from clinical trials represents only one type of research evidence. Properly specified, simulation models are another source of evidence with real-world relevance.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comprehensive assessment of deep reinforcement learning approaches for economic dispatch in nuclear-driven microgrids

As the electrical grid integrates more variable renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, the demand for distributed and flexible systems to address this increased variability becomes critical. Nuclear-driven microgrids provide a promising solution by offering stable generation to complement intermittent renewables, ensuring grid reliability and operating efficiency. This paper proposes a recurrent deep reinforcement learning framework for optimal economic dispatch in a nuclear-powered microgrid integrating renewable energy sources, small modular reactors, battery storage systems, and balance-of-plant dynamics. A three-agent control architecture is developed, where demand and renewable energy agents act as forecasters, and a reinforcement learning-based dispatch agent performs real-time energy allocation. A nonlinear programming formulation is first used to generate an optimal baseline for benchmarking. The proposed dispatch controller, based on Proximal Policy Optimization enhanced with Long Short-Term Memory networks, exploits temporal correlations in system dynamics by taking advantage of the time series used as inputs to improve policy robustness under uncertainty. Comparative analysis against established deep reinforcement learning methods, including Proximal Policy Optimization with a feedforward architecture, Soft Actor-Critic, and Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient, demonstrates superior performance. Numerical results indicate that the proposed controller achieves a 0.39% cost reduction relative to the nonlinear programming benchmark and outperforms other learning-based methods by generating additional revenue of up to 0.35%. All reinforcement learning controllers compute dispatch actions in less than 0.3 s, resulting in a computational speedup of more than three orders of magnitude over the nonlinear programming baseline. The findings of this paper highlight their applicability for real-time operation and control in nuclear-integrated microgrids under volatile operating conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using machine learning for particle track identification in the CLAS12 detector

Particle track reconstruction is the most computationally intensive process in nuclear physics experiments. Traditional algorithms use a combinatorial approach that exhaustively tests track measurements ("hits") to identify those that form an actual particle trajectory. In this article, we describe the development of four machine learning (ML) models that assist the tracking algorithm by identifying valid track candidates from the measurements in drift chambers. Several types of machine learning models were tested, including: Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLP), Extremely Randomized Trees (ERT) and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN). As a result of this work, an MLP network classifier was implemented as part of the CLAS12 reconstruction software to provide the tracking code with recommended track candidates. The resulting software achieved accuracy of greater than 99% and resulted in an end-to-end speedup of 35% compared to existing algorithms.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Non-stationary precipitation design standards for stormwater infrastructure modernization at USAF installations

The resilience of defense infrastructure systems to a changing climate is critical for national security. Climate induced recurrent flooding is already impacting over 20 U.S. Air Force installations, underscoring the urgency of revisiting precipitation standards and stormwater infrastructure design. Despite growing scientific knowledge and an expanding set of tools for updating outdated precipitation standards based on the assumption of climate stationarity, the adoption of climate informed analyses remain limited in practice. This study utilizes an existing framework to update Intensity (or Depth)-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves using an ensemble of future climate projections. Change factors in precipitation estimates are derived and applied to six USAF installations across the U.S. The analysis is further extended to evaluate the implications of climate-informed DDFs on stormwater infrastructure performance and flood analysis at Tyndall AFB. Results indicate that the current design precipitation estimates are likely to become obsolete in all six USAF bases by the end of the century. The wide range of change factors across 32 GCM ensembles highlights the need to integrate uncertainty and evolving scientific data into infrastructure planning. The study also finds that the impacts of a changing climate vary spatially and temporally, emphasizing the value of localized analysis for infrastructure decision-making. The work advances ongoing DoD and societal efforts to implement adaptation strategies aimed at enhancing infrastructure resilience.

Intensity-duration-frequency curves↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning models of intermittent operation of RO wellhead water treatment for salinity reduction and nitrate removal

Machine learning models were developed for intermittent multi-mode operation of a wellhead reverse osmosis water purification and desalination system to predict salt passage, nitrate passage, and permeate flux. The models, based on long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture, included an attention mechanism to increase model performance in proximity of the regulatory limit for nitrate. Training and testing of the models for the Startup, Production, Shutdown and Flushing operational modes were based on operational data (consisting of 22 process variables per data sample) acquired every 2–5 s over a six-month period. The significant sets of model input attributes for the different operational modes were assessed via Spearman ranking correlation, Self-Organizing Map (SOM) analysis and feed forward feature selection (FFFS). Although the variability of nitrate passage, salt passage and permeate flux was significant over the four operational modes, prediction performance for the three outcomes were with R2 and Average Absolute Relative Error (AARE) of 0.78–0.95 and 2.96–6.16 %, respectively. Model updates post membrane elements replacement demonstrated similar levels of prediction accuracy. The study results suggest that there is merit in exploring the utility of multi-mode models for sensor fault detection, data imputation, and for potential use in model-predictive control.

Intermittent RO operation↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic energy system modeling using hybrid physics-based and machine learning encoder–decoder models

Three model configurations are presented for multi-step time series predictions of the heat absorbed by the water and steam in a thermal power plant. The models predict over horizons of 2, 4, and 6 steps into the future, where each step is a 5-minute increment. The evaluated models are a pure machine learning model, a novel hybrid machine learning and physics-based model, and the hybrid model with an incomplete dataset. The hybrid model deconstructs the machine learning into individual boiler heat absorption units: economizer, water wall, superheater, and reheater. Each configuration uses a gated recurrent unit (GRU) or a GRU-based encoder–decoder as the deep learning architecture. Mean squared error is used to evaluate the models compared to target values. The encoder–decoder architecture is over 11% more accurate than the GRU only models. The hybrid model with the incomplete dataset highlights the importance of the manipulated variables to the system. The hybrid model, compared to the pure machine learning model, is over 10% more accurate on average over 20 iterations of each model. Automatic differentiation is applied to the hybrid model to perform a local sensitivity analysis to identify the most impactful of the 72 manipulated variables on the heat absorbed in the boiler. The models and sensitivity analyses are used in a discussion about optimizing the thermal power plant.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sequence-to-sequence neural networks for short-term electrical load forecasting in commercial office buildings

The U.S. power grid is transforming to become smarter, cleaner, and more effi- cient. This is leading to the addition of significant distributed variable renew- able generation. Due to the variable nature of renewable generation, the short- and long-term supply-demand imbalances are less predictable, and conventional approaches to mitigating the imbalance will not be efficient or cost-effective. To address this challenge, transactive control technologies have been proposed which balance energy generation and consumption with market activity and in- frastructural limitations. Transactive control requires the ability of individual end-use loads to express flexibility as a function of a transactive signal (e.g., price). Empirical gray- and black-box models have been widely used to express flexibility, and although these approaches are generally easy to construct and simple to use, they do not capture the non-linear behavior that some end-use loads represent . Machine learning approaches have been proposed to address this limitation. Although deep learning approaches for forecasting end-use loads have been explored, certain aspects of the application of deep models to load forecasting are not well understood. These aspects include how much training data is required, and how models should be structured and trained. To that end, this work explores how to approach applying deep recurrent neural networks to short-term electrical load forecasting with a case study of four commercial office buildings. We identify data requirements for training accurate models of whole building electricity use conditioned on outdoor temperature, provide insight into model hyperparameter sensitivity, and demonstrate how readily models can be generalized to unseen buildings.

Skomski, Elliott↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparative Analysis of Model Predictive Control and MPC-Informed Rule-Based Control for Thermal Storage Operation in Ultra-Low Temperature 4th Generation District Heating Networks

The integration of thermal storage and heat pumps in district heating networks (DHNs) can significantly enhance operational flexibility and energy efficiency; however, the practical deployment of advanced control strategies is often hindered by forecasting requirements and computational complexity. This study presents a comparative analysis of thermal storage control strategies in an ultra-low-temperature fourth-generation DHN, focusing on the development of a simplified rule-based control (RBC) explicitly informed by Model Predictive Control (MPC) behavior. The proposed methodology systematically analyzes the charging and discharging decisions of an MPC-controlled system under ideal forecasting conditions and extracts recurrent control patterns as a function of key system variables, including outdoor temperature, thermal demand, and electricity price. These patterns are translated into a set of structured time- and condition-based rules, resulting in an MPC-informed RBC that embeds predictive insights while preserving implementation simplicity and operational transparency. The approach is validated on a realistic mixed-use urban district in Denver, Colorado, USA, equipped with a centralized air-source heat pump, distributed water-to-water heat pumps, and a central thermal storage unit. Results show that the tuned RBC attains approximately 96% of ideal MPC economic performance (-27% of costs), preserves values of technical and environmental indicators (reduction only of 2-3%), and substantially reduces complexity. Sensitivity analyses further demonstrate the robustness of the RBC under varying operational conditions (i.e., ambient temperature, electricity price). Overall, the study demonstrates that MPC-informed rule-based control represents an effective trade-off between control performance and real-world applicability, enabling the integration of additional system components while maintaining simplicity, robustness, and ease of implementation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗