Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “reanalysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

The Atlantic Jet Response to Stratospheric Events: A Regime Perspective

The tropospheric response to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) is associated with an equatorward shift in the midlatitude jet and associated storm tracks, while Strong Polar Vortex (SPV) events elicit a contrasting response. Recent analyses of the North Atlantic jet using probability density functions of a jet latitude index have identified three preferred jet latitudes, raising the question of whether the tropospheric response to SSWs and SPVs results from a change in relative frequencies of these preferred jet regimes rather than a systematic jet shift. We explore this question using atmospheric reanalysis data from 1979 to 2018 (26 SSWs and 33 SPVs), and a 202-years integration of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (92 SSWs and 68 SPVs). Following SSWs, the northern jet regime becomes less common and the central and southern regimes become more common. These changes occur almost immediately following “split” vortex events, but are more delayed following “displacement” events. In contrast, the northern regime becomes more frequent and the southern regime less frequent following SPV events. Following SSWs, composites of 500-hPa geopotential heights, surface air temperatures, and precipitation most closely resemble composites of the southern jet regime, and are generally opposite in sign to the composites of the northern jet regime. These comparisons are reversed following SPVs. Thus, one possible interpretation is that the two southernmost regimes appear to be favored following SSWs, while the southernmost regime becomes less common following SPVs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climatology and Evolution of the Antarctic Peninsula Föhn Wind-Induced Melt Regime From 1979–2018

Warm and dry föhn winds on the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) cause surface melt that can destabilize vulnerable ice shelves. Topographic funneling of these downslope winds through mountain passes and canyons can produce localized wind-induced melt that is difficult to quantify without direct measurements. Our Föhn Detection Algorithm (FöhnDA) identifies the surface föhn signature that causes melt from measurement by 12 Automatic Weather Stations on the AP, that train a machine learning model to detect föhn in 5 km Regional Atmospheric Climate Model 2 (RACMO2.3p2) simulations and in the ERA5 reanalysis model. We estimate the fraction of AP surface melt attributed to föhn and possibly katabatic winds and identify the drivers of melt, temporal variability, and long-term trends and evolution from 1979–2018. We find that föhn wind-induced melt accounts for 3.1% of the total melt on the AP and can be as high at 18% close to the mountains where the winds funnel through mountain canyons. Föhn-induced surface melt does not significantly increase from 1979–2018, despite a warmer atmosphere and more positive Southern Annular Mode. However, a significant increase (+0.1 Gt y-1) and subsequent decrease/stabilization occur in 1979–1998 and 1999–2018, consistent with the AP warming and cooling trends during the same time periods. Föhn occurrence, more than föhn strength, drives the annual variability in föhn-induced melt. Long-term föhn-induced melt trends and evolution are attributable to seasonal changes in föhn occurrence, with increased occurrence in summer, and decreased occurrence in fall, winter, and early spring over the past 20 years.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainties in Atmospheric River Lifecycles by Detection Algorithms: Climatology and Variability

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long and narrow filaments of vapor transport that are responsible for most poleward moisture transport outside of the tropics. Many AR detection algorithms have been developed to automatically identify ARs in climate data. The diversity of these algorithms has introduced appreciable uncertainties in quantitative measures of AR properties and thereby impedes the construction of a unified and internally consistent climatology of ARs. This paper compares nine global AR detection algorithms from the perspective of AR lifecycles following the propagation of ARs from origin to termination in the MERRA2 reanalysis over the period 1980–2017. Uncertainties in AR lifecycle characteristics, including event number, lifetime, intensity, and frequency distribution are discussed. Notably, the number of AR events per year in the Northern Hemisphere can vary by a factor of 5 with different algorithms. Although all algorithms show that the maximum AR origin (termination) frequency is located over the western (eastern) portion of ocean basins, significant disagreements appear in regional distribution. Spreads are large in AR lifetime and intensity. Here, the number of landfalling AR events produced by the algorithms can vary from 16 to 80 events per year, although the agreement improves for stronger ARs. By examining the ARs' connections with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño Southern Oscillation, we find that the overall responses of ARs (such as changes in AR frequency, origin, and landfall activity) to climate variability are consistent among algorithms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Impact of Slantwise Descending Dry Intrusions on the Marine Boundary Layer and Air-Sea Interface Over the ARM Eastern North Atlantic Site

Dry intrusions (DIs) are synoptic-scale slantwise descending airstreams from the midlatitude upper troposphere toward the boundary layer at lower latitudes. Typically occurring behind cold fronts, such intrusions of dry air often reach the boundary layer and cause its deepening, thereby affecting boundary-layer clouds. Although subsidence is generally an inherent feature of the subtropical marine boundary layer (MBL), it is unclear how the MBL reacts to the transient, dynamically distinct DI. In this study, reanalysis data were combined with observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site (39.1 degrees N,28.0 degrees W) to characterize the impact of DIs on MBL characteristics and clouds. Specifically, an objective criterion is applied to the observations made during the winter months of 2016-2018 to identify the DI days from those before and following DIs, and reference periods without DIs. The analyses suggest substantial deepening of the well-mixed boundary layer accompanied by changes in the cloud, precipitation and thermodynamic properties during the DI events. During the DI, the lower troposphere cooled and dried substantially thereby inducing strong surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. All while a strong inversion builds up at the elevated MBL top affecting cloud occurrence. The results show DIs to affect the boundary layer and cloud structure at the ENA site similar to 21% of the time in winter months, with the response of the cloud fields to the DI-fronts substantially different than that to the non-DI fronts. Hence, the DI events should be considered while studying boundary layer and cloud processes in the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the Representation of Synoptic Variability Associated With California Extreme Precipitation in CMIP6 Models

Abstract Days of extreme precipitation over California are evaluated in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models and the ERA‐Interim reanalysis. In the current climate, the model spread in composited precipitation on extreme precipitation days is closely related to the magnitude of composited integrated vapor transport (IVT) across models, a proxy for the intensity of atmospheric rivers. Most models underestimate the magnitude of IVT associated with extreme precipitation, according to ERA‐Interim. This is due mostly to the contribution of moisture, which almost all models overestimate, while the contribution of lower‐tropospheric wind speed is generally closer to the reanalyses. Moreover, most models underestimate the variance in the latitude of maxima of numerous variables among days of extreme California precipitation. That is, in the general circulation models there is a lack of diversity in the latitude of the disturbances bringing winter precipitation to California. In the future climate, most models project a decrease in the frequency of southward‐displaced disturbances among California extreme precipitation days. Hence, the greatest increases in extreme precipitation are over northern California. However, the historical underestimate of the latitudinal variance of disturbances calls into question the reliability of these projections. This bias should be especially considered for dynamical downscaling efforts over the region.

Norris, Jesse↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Mechanism of Increasing Summer Water Vapor Over the Tibetan Plateau

Rapid warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has been associated with a wetting trend in atmospheric water vapor content, which is critical for recharging the Asian water tower. However, the mechanism associated with the wetting phenomenon remains unclear. Long-term changes in moisture balance and precipitation recycling processes are investigated using the ERA5 reanalysis from 1979 to 2019. The wetting trend over TP is mainly due to the summer water vapor trend with signi?cantly increases over the western TP. Based on the moisture balance analysis, it is found that precipitation, evaporation, and the convergence of moisture are all increasing over the western TP but decreasing over the eastern TP. Based on the dynamical precipitation recycling model, the results suggest that both internal and external cycles contributes to the wetting over TP, with 63.87% and 36.13% contributions respectively. Further analysis found that the atmospheric heating source is also increasing over the western TP, which could shift the moisture transportation from east to west at the southern boundary of TP. The increasing moisture convergence could enhance precipitation, and the enhanced latent heating in the mid-atmosphere can further induced moisture convergence, which forms a positive feedback. However, an opposite situation occurred over the eastern TP. The internal and external cycle of the recycling process can stimulate (suppress) each other through precipitation over the western (eastern) TP. This mechanism linked the changes in the precipitation recycling and atmospheric circulation, and induced the wetting trend over TP in summer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Global Temperature Responses to Large Tropical Volcanic Eruptions in Paleo Data Assimilation Products and Climate Model Simulations Over the Last Millennium

Abstract Large volcanic eruptions are one of the dominant perturbations to global and regional atmospheric temperatures on timescales of years to decades. Discrepancies remain, however, in the estimated magnitude and persistence of the surface temperature cooling caused by volcanic eruptions, as characterized by paleoclimatic proxies and climate models. We investigate these discrepancies in the context of large tropical eruptions over the Last Millennium using two state‐of‐the‐art data assimilation products, the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA) and the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR), and simulations from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model‐Last Millennium Ensemble (NCAR CESM‐LME). We find that PHYDA and LMR estimate mean global and hemispheric cooling that is similar in magnitude and persistence once effects from eruptions occurring in short succession are removed. The estimates also compare well to Northern‐Hemisphere reconstructions based solely or partially on tree‐ring density, which have been proposed as the most accurate proxy estimates of surface cooling due to volcanism. All proxy‐based estimates also agree well with the magnitude of the mean cooling simulated by the CESM‐LME. Differences remain, however, in the spatial patterns of the temperature responses in the PHYDA, LMR, and the CESM‐LME. The duration of cooling anomalies also persists for several years longer in the PHYDA and LMR relative to the CESM‐LME. Our results demonstrate progress in resolving discrepancies between proxy‐ and model‐based estimates of temperature responses to volcanism, but also indicate these estimates must be further reconciled to better characterize the risks of future volcanic eruptions.

Tejedor, E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity in the High‐Resolution Community Atmosphere Model

Abstract High‐resolution climate models (∼28 km grid spacing) can permit realistic simulations of tropical cyclones (TCs), thus enabling their investigation in relation to the climate system. On the global scale, previous works have demonstrated that the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) version 5 presents a reasonable TC climatology under prescribed present‐day (1980–2005) forcing. However, for the Western North Pacific (WNP) region, known biases in simulated TC genesis frequency and location under‐represent the basin's dominant share in observations. This study addresses these model biases in WNP by evaluating WNP TCs in a decadal simulation, and exploring potential improvements through nudging experiments. Among the major environmental controls of TC genesis, the lack of mid‐level moisture is identified as the leading cause of the deficit in simulated WNP TC genesis over the Pacific Warm Pool. Subsequent seasonal experiments explore the effect of constraining the large‐scale environment on TC development by nudging WNP temperature field toward reanalysis at various strengths. Temperature nudging elicits a significant response in TC genesis and intensity development, as well as in moisture and convection over the Warm Pool. These responses are sensitive to the choice of nudging timescale. Overall, the nudging experiments demonstrate that improvements in the large‐scale environment can lead to improvements in simulated TCs, suggesting future model developments in relation to model physics. In this way, the potential improvements in model fidelity will contribute to the understanding of how the mean state of current or future climates may give rise to extremes such as TCs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Relation of Environmental Conditions With Charge Structure in Central Argentina Thunderstorms

In this study we explored the environmental conditions hypothesized to induce a dominant charge structure in thunderstorms in the province of Cordoba, Argentina, during the RELAMPAGO-CACTI (Remote sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations-Clouds, Aerosols, Complex Terrain Interactions) field campaigns. Hypothesized environmental conditions are thought to be related to small warm cloud residence time and warm rain growth suppression, which lead to high cloud liquid water contents in the mixed-phase zone, contributing to positive charging of graupel and anomalous charge structure storms. Data from radiosondes, a cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) ground-based instrument and reanalysis were used to characterize the proximity inflow air of storms with anomalous and normal charge structures. Consistent with the initial hypothesis, anomalous storms had small warm cloud depth caused by dry low-level humidity and low 0°C height. Anomalous storms were associated with lower CCN concentrations than normal storms, an opposite result to the initial expectation. High CAPE is not an important condition for the development of anomalous storms in Argentina, as no clear pattern could be found among the different parameters calculated for updraft proxy that would be consistent with the initial hypothesis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

CMIP6 Models Underestimate the Holton‐Tan Effect

Abstract The teleconnection between the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the Arctic polar vortex is investigated using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models. Output from 14 CMIP6 models is compared with reanalysis, three experiments with prescribed QBOs, one of which has no free polar stratospheric variability, and transient experiments in which a QBO is prescribed in runs previously devoid of a QBO. Each CMIP6 model underestimates the Holton‐Tan effect (HTE), the weakening of the polar vortex expected with QBO easterlies in the tropical lower stratosphere. To establish why, potential vorticity maps are used to investigate longitudinal variations in the teleconnection. Prescribing easterly QBO in the transient experiments promotes more high‐latitude planetary wave breaking by influencing the mid‐latitude stratospheric circulation, particularly over Asia. CMIP6 models that better simulate this response over Asia better simulate the HTE. These models also have stronger 10 hPa QBO westerlies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

On Assessing ERA5 and MERRA2 Representations of Cold-Air Outbreaks Across the Gulf Stream

The warm Gulf Stream sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strongly impact the evolution of winter clouds behind atmospheric cold fronts. Such cloud evolution remains challenging to model. Here, the Gulf Stream is too wide within the ERA5 and MERRA2 reanalyses, affecting the turbulent surface fluxes. Known problems within the ERA5 boundary layer (too-dry and too-cool with too strong westerlies), ascertained primarily from ACTIVATE 2020 campaign aircraft dropsondes and secondarily from older buoy measurements, reinforce surface flux biases. In contrast, MERRA2 winter surface winds and air-sea temperature/humidity differences are slightly too weak, producing surface fluxes that are too low. Reanalyses boundary layer heights in the strongly-forced winter cold-air-outbreak regime are realistic, whereas late-summer quiescent stable boundary layers are too shallow. Nevertheless, the reanalysis biases are small, and reanalyses adequately support their use for initializing higher-resolution cloud process modeling studies of cold-air outbreaks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climatology of Cloud-Top Radiative Cooling in Marine Shallow Clouds

A one-year’s worth of near-global marine shallow single-layer cloud top radiative cooling (CTRC) is derived from a radiative transfer model with inputs from the satellite cloud retrievals and reanalysis sounding. The mean cloud top radiative flux divergence is 61 Wm -2 , decomposed into the longwave and shortwave components of 73 and -11 W m -2 , respectively. Equatorward of 30°N/S, the CTRC is largely a reflection of free-atmospheric specific humidity distribution: a dry atmosphere enhances CTRC by reducing downward thermal radiation. Consequently, the cooling minimizes in the “wet” tropics and maximizes in the “dry” eastern subtropics. Poleward of 30°N/S, the CTRC decreases slightly due to the colder clouds that emit less effectively. Furthermore, the CTRC exhibits distinctive seasonal cycles with stronger cooling in the winter and has amplitudes of order 10–20 Wm -2 in stratocumulus-rich regions. The datasets were used to train a machine-learning model that substantially speeds up the retrieval.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the Importance of Sea Surface Temperature for Aerosol–Induced Brightening of Marine Clouds and Implications for Cloud Feedback in a Future Warmer Climate

Marine low clouds are one of the greatest sources of uncertainty for climate projection. We present an observed climatology of cloud albedo susceptibility to cloud droplet number concentration perturbations (S 0 ) with changing sea surface temperature (SST) and estimated inversion strength for single-layer warm clouds over the North Atlantic Ocean, using eight years of satellite and reanalysis data. The key findings are that SST has a dominant control on S 0 in the presence of co-varying synoptic conditions and aerosol perturbations. Cloud brightening in regions with positive S 0 weakens with increasing local SST. Higher SST significantly hastens cloud-top evaporation with increasing aerosol loading, by accelerating entrainment and facilitating entrainment drying. In a global-warming-like scenario where aerosol loading is reduced, more cloud brightening is expected, mainly as a result of reduced entrainment drying. Furthermore, our results imply a less positive low-cloud liquid water path feedback in a warmer climate with decreasing aerosol loading.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effect of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the Madden Julian Oscillation Teleconnections in the Southern Hemisphere

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the main source of intraseasonal variability in the tropics. MJO modulates rainfall in remote areas in the Southern Hemisphere by exciting tropical and extratropical wave trains. We use newly released reanalysis data to analyze how the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) can influence the MJO's effects over the Southern Hemisphere, focusing on precipitation anomalies over South America. The anomalies in the intensity of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and precipitation over Southeastern South America during MJO phases 1 and 4 are intensified during the easterly QBO. The extratropical wave train excited by the anomalous convection over the maritime continent during MJO phase 4 is affected by the QBO, with a stronger, better-defined pattern during westerly QBO. The conclusions are supported by a perturbation experiment of a case study, conducted using a high-top atmospheric global climate model where the QBO and MJO are controlled.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Upper-Tropospheric Troughs and North American Monsoon Rainfall in a Long-Term Track Dataset

The North American monsoon is frequently affected by transient, propagating upper tropospheric vorticity anomalies. Sometimes called Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Troughs (TUTTs), these features have been claimed to episodically enhance monsoon rainfall. Here, we track long-lived TUTTs in 40 years of reanalysis data, producing composites and case studies from 340 TUTTs which last, on average, 7 days as they move westward across the North American monsoon region. TUTTs are thought to form from midlatitude Rossby wave breaking; case studies from our dataset support this theory. TUTTs move westward within the easterly upper-level flow in which they are embedded. In vortex-centered composites along the full tracks of long-lived TUTTs, here, we find no detectable increase in rainfall within the main TUTT circulation. Instead, negative precipitation anomalies lie within about 500 km of the TUTT center. Quasi-geostrophic ascent occurs in the southeast quadrant of TUTTs but is confined to the upper troposphere and does not appear to interact with precipitation. Positive anomalies of ascent and rainfall occur south and southeast of TUTTs but lie outside the main TUTT vortex, perhaps indicating concurrent variations in nearby climatological precipitation maxima. In contrast with previous case studies and subjective analyses that showed TUTTs enhance precipitation in parts of northwestern Mexico, our composites along the tracks of long-lived TUTTs portray these systems, to first order, as strong vorticity anomalies trapped in the upper troposphere that interact only weakly and indirectly with precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climatology of Melting Layer Heights Estimated From Cloud Radar Observations at Various Locations

A melting layer (ML) detection algorithm for cloud radar with polarimetric capability was developed and applied to the cloud radar data collected from five different sites around the world for several years. The retrieved melting layer top height (MLH) showed a very good correspondence with the ECMWF Reanalysis 5 zero degree level data for all five sites. The ML characteristics were distinctively different for different sites, revealing climatological characteristics of ML forming clouds in different regions. Generally, ML tended to occur more frequently in summer than in winter except for a maritime site, where low stratiform clouds formed frequently in summer, the top of which might be lower than the freezing level. In contrast, at two Arctic sites, ML occurred almost exclusively in summer because it was too cold to have an ML in the other seasons. The MLH also varied significantly from site to site but generally was higher during warmer seasons. Based on MLH, two new indices, bulk temperature lapse rate (BLR) and relative depth (RD) of liquid cloud below MLH (RD) were developed, which were useful to explain the environmental characteristics of the five sites. BLR generally increased with the surface temperature at all sites except at the marine site that showed an opposite trend, where a unique synoptic pattern in winter generated high BLR in this cold season. Finally, these findings confirm that studies on thermodynamic structures using cloud radars can be broadened, taking advantage of BLR and RD information, as these indices can represent environmental thermodynamic characteristics of the clouds that have ML.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Linking Synoptic Patterns to Cloud Properties and Local Circulations Over Southeastern Texas

This report classifies meteorological regimes in the southeastern Texas region to identify environmental conditions that favor sea-breeze induced convection. The classification is accomplished using a Self-Organizing Map (SOM) approach. We applied SOM to 10 years of 700-hPa geopotential height anomalies during the summer months from reanalysis data to distinguish three dominant synoptic regimes, with a continuum of transitional states between those. The primary regimes include: (a) a pre-trough regime associated with a synoptic trough, (b) a post-trough regime with upper-level northerly flow, and (c) an anticyclonic regime within the westward extent of the Bermuda High. We project the data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite and the Next Generation Weather Radar system onto each SOM node to investigate the characteristics of cloud and precipitation properties in different regimes. When southeastern Texas is positioned to the southwest quadrant of a maritime high pressure system, an increased cloud frequency is observed over the region during the afternoon hours due to significant moisture advection. A confluence of synoptic southerly flow and sea-breeze circulation commonly occurs in this regime. When a high pressure system is over southeastern Texas, the area is dominated by large-scale subsidence with weak pressure gradients and moderate precipitable water vapor. This weak synoptic forcing is favorable for the formation of a sea-breeze circulation. This is confirmed by an enhanced onshore flow and a decreased temperature at the surface in the early afternoon, as well as a sharp increase in radar echo top height.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Increases in Future AR Count and Size: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 Experiment

Abstract The Atmospheric River (AR) Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is a community effort to systematically assess how the uncertainties from AR detectors (ARDTs) impact our scientific understanding of ARs. This study describes the ARTMIP Tier 2 experimental design and initial results using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phases 5 and 6 multi‐model ensembles. We show that AR statistics from a given ARDT in CMIP5/6 historical simulations compare remarkably well with the MERRA‐2 reanalysis. In CMIP5/6 future simulations, most ARDTs project a global increase in AR frequency, counts, and sizes, especially along the western coastlines of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. We find that the choice of ARDT is the dominant contributor to the uncertainty in projected AR frequency when compared with model choice. These results imply that new projects investigating future changes in ARs should explicitly consider ARDT uncertainty as a core part of the experimental design.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗