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At least 235 records · Page 13

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

On the Viability of Video Imaging in Leak Rate Quantification: A Theoretical Error Analysis

Optical gas imaging through multispectral cameras is a promising technique for mitigation of methane emissions through localization and quantification of emissions sources. While more advanced cameras developed in recent years have led to lower uncertainties in measuring gas concentrations, a systematic analysis of the uncertainties associated with leak rate estimation have been overlooked. We present a systematic categorization of the involved uncertainties with a focus on a theoretical analysis of projection uncertainties that are inherent to this technique. The projection uncertainties are then quantified using Large Eddy Simulation experiments of a point source release into the atmosphere. Our results show that while projection uncertainties are typically about 5% of the emission rate, low acquisition times and observation of the gas plume at small distances from the emission source (<10 m) can amount to errors of about 20%. Further, we found that acquisition times on the order of tens of seconds are sufficient to significantly reduce (>50%) the projection uncertainties. These findings suggest robust procedures on how to reduce projection uncertainties, however, a balance between other sources of uncertainty due to operational conditions and the employed instrumentation are required to outline more practical guidelines.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Long-term uncertainty quantification in WRF-modeled offshore wind resource off the US Atlantic coast

Uncertainty quantification of long-term modeled wind speed is essential to ensure stakeholders can best leverage wind resource numerical data sets. Offshore, this need is even stronger given the limited availability of observations of wind speed at heights relevant for wind energy purposes and the resulting heavier relative weight of numerical data sets for wind energy planning and operational projects. In this analysis, we consider the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's 21-year updated numerical offshore data set for the US East Coast and provide a methodological framework to leverage both floating lidar and near-surface buoy observations in the region to quantify uncertainty in the modeled hub-height wind resource. We first show how using a numerical ensemble to quantify the uncertainty in modeled wind speed is insufficient to fully capture the model deviation from real-world observations. Next, we train and validate a random forest to vertically extrapolate near-surface wind speed to hub height using the available short-term lidar data sets in the region. We then apply this model to vertically extrapolate the long-term near-surface buoy wind speed observations to hub height so that they can be directly compared to the long-term numerical data set. We find that the mean 21-year uncertainty in 140 m hourly average wind speed is slightly lower than 3 m s -1 (roughly 30m% of the mean observed wind speed) across the considered region. Atmospheric stability is strictly connected to the modeled wind speed uncertainty, with stable conditions associated with an uncertainty which is, on average, about 20 % larger than the overall mean uncertainty.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Beyond pinball loss: Quantile methods for calibrated uncertainty quantification

Amongthemanywaysofquantifying uncertainty in a regression setting, specifying the full quantile function is attractive, as quantiles are amenable to interpretation and evaluation. A model that predicts the true conditional quantiles for each input, at all quantile levels, presents a correct and efficient representation of the underlying uncertainty. To achieve this, many current quantile-based methods focus on optimizing the pinball loss. However, this loss restricts the scope of applicable regression models, limits the ability to target many desirable properties (e.g. calibration, sharpness, centered intervals), and may produce poor conditional quantiles. In this work, we develop new quantile methods that address these shortcomings. In particular, we propose methods that can apply to any class of regression model, select an explicit balance between calibration and sharpness, optimize for calibration of centered intervals, and produce more accurate conditional quantiles. We provide a thorough experimental evaluation of our methods, which includes a high dimensional uncertainty quantification task in nuclear fusion.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Iterative Workflow for Quantification and Minimization of Reduced Chemistry-Induced Uncertainties in Reacting Flow Simulation

Reduced chemistry models mitigate computational cost but introduce two sources of uncertainties in reacting flow simulation, including chemical information loss due to model reduction, and approximation errors due to non-optimal projection. We present an iterative workflow for quantification and minimization of reduced chemistry-induced uncertainties in reacting flow simulations.

chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2024

Economic Parameter Uncertainty Quantification Demonstration

HERON has recently added uncertainty quantification capabilities for economic parameters. Users may now associate a distribution with certain cash flow parameters to simulate uncertainty in cost or other economic inputs. For example, a user may want to capture the uncertainty of capital expenditures of an advanced nuclear power plant because public data is hard to find or is not available yet. This new addition allows users to account for that uncertainty.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of Non-Nuclear Advanced Controls Testbed Reactor Mockup

The research presented in this report describes our progress in applying stochastic methods and uncertainty quantification, parametric study, and variance-based sensitivity analysis (also known as Sobol sensitivity analysis) to a full-core model of a nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) system simulated with Griffin, with the goal of developing a reduced order (surrogate) model which can be rapidly sampled while perturbing multiple input parameters. In this NTP system, reactivity and power feedback affect the rotation of control drums, which are controlled by a hybrid proportional, integral and derivative (PID) controller, actuated by the power demand and reactivity feedback from the numerical model. This model uses reactor kinetic feedback (mean generation time and $\beta$ from a transient Griffin simulation executed with the improved quasi-static method to provide the kinetic parameters) as inputs to functions which control the CD rotation angle. Using a number of stochastic method approaches, we developed a dual purpose training-surrogate model of the NTP system using polynomial regression. The trained model can be rapidly sampled while simultaneously perturbing various input parameters of the model, such as coefficients on the PID control, or temperature (directly affect the neutron cross section). The surrogate model delivers accurate results orders-of-magnitude faster (minutes, not days) than the base model. Once the base model has been trained, distributions of the uncertain parameters can be changed at will to investigate the effects of perturbing multiple inputs and their effect on the output. For example, coefficients used in the PID control system may vary due to some physical interference, or there may be uncertainty in the temperature of the neutron cross sections in various regions of the reactor. A distribution can be placed on these parameters and operational boundaries can be determined. The goal of this work is to support development of an advanced control system to operate CDs in a functioning NTP system.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Predictive Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification in Condition Monitoring of Active Components: A Reactor Coolant Pump Use Case

This work develops data-driven models for onset of thermal barrier leakage in reactor coolant pumps. It incorporates uncertainty quantification to enhance the reliability and robustness of pre- dictions. Using synthetic data generated by the Generic Pressurized Water Reactor simulator, realistic degradation scenarios were simulated across lifecycle stages—beginning, middle, and end of life. Key variables, including differential pressure, flow rate, vibration, and temperatures, were analyzed using machine learning framework. The fully connected neural network models demonstrated exceptional performance, achieving R2 scores exceeding 0.99 and root mean square errors as low as around 8.23 × 10-2 gallon per minute (gpm) for the three stages of the lifecy- cle. UQ analysis further validated the model’s robustness, with narrow uncertainty bounds during steady-state operations and appropriately wider bounds during transitional phases, reflecting the physical behavior of the system. This work addresses important gaps in real-time condition moni- toring and regulatory compliance by integrating advanced condition monitoring technologies with UQ into IST programs. The ability to detect thermal barrier leakage early and quantify prediction reliability supports optimizing maintenance strategies while ensuring nuclear power plants’ safe and reliable operation.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

MOOSE ProbML: Parallelizable Probabilistic Machine Learning and Uncertainty Quantification Capabilities

The Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) is a widely used open- source finite element software for performing multiphysics multiscale simulations in a massively parallel fashion. Recently, the computational team at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has implemented Probabilistic Machine Learning (ProbML) capabilities in MOOSE—in a parallelized fashion—and enable active learning with large-scale computational models for tasks such as surrogate model development, scale bridging, forward/inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ), Bayesian optimization, etc. This presentation summarizes these developments in MOOSE along with demonstrations on several real applications relevant to nuclear energy. At the fundamental level, samplers like Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube, variance reduction, parallelized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) support uncertainty propagation in both forward and inverse settings. These samplers can be integrated with the Gaussian processes (GP) suite in MOOSE, which offer several variants like scalar GPs, multi-output GPs, and deep GPs, to enable active learning. These GPs can be tuned using gradient-based optimization methods like Adam and its variants or gradient-free methods like the elliptical slice sampler (a variant of MCMC adept under Gaussian settings) for more complex covariance kernels or likelihoods whose gradient computations can be cumbersome. A variety of batch acquisition functions permit parallelized evaluation of the computational model and support different learning objectives with high efficiency like Bayesian inference, global surrogate development, optimization, etc. Furthermore, libtorch integration supports training, evaluation, and re-training of neural networks and other complex machine learning models in active learning settings. The impacts of these developments are shown on several real applications: (1) nuclear fuel inverse UQ and model inadequacy assessment using the Kennedy O’Hagan framework; (2) uncertainty aware surrogate modeling for additive manufacturing to predict field quantities; (3) nuclear reactor rare events analysis; and (4) complex fluid flow prediction using a global surrogate with quantified prediction uncertainty. Finally, the outlook of MOOSE ProbML is discussed for both outer-loop and inner-loop computations in the broad view to accelerate fuels and materials qualification, address gaps in knowledge and data, and assess new reactor/fuel systems.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Direct Quantification of Heat Generation Due to Inelastic Scattering of Electrons Using a Nanocalorimeter

Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) is arguably the most important tool for atomic-scale material characterization. A significant portion of the energy of transmitted electrons is transferred to the material under study through inelastic scattering, causing inadvertent damage via ionization, radiolysis, and heating. In particular, heat generation complicates TEM observations as the local temperature can affect material properties. Here, the heat generation due to electron irradiation is quantified using both top-down and bottom-up approaches: direct temperature measurements using nanowatt calorimeters as well as the quantification of energy loss due to inelastic scattering events using electron energy loss spectroscopy. Combining both techniques, a microscopic model is developed for beam-induced heating and to identify the primary electron-to-heat conversion mechanism to be associated with valence electrons. Building on these results, the model provides guidelines to estimate temperature rise for general materials with reasonable accuracy. This study extends the ability to quantify thermal impact on materials down to the atomic scale.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantification of Native Lignin Structural Features with Gel–Phase 2D–HSQC 0 Reveals Lignin Structural Changes During Extraction

Our ability to study and valorize the lignin fraction of biomass is hampered by the fundamental and still unmet challenge of precisely quantifying native lignin's structural features. Here, we developed a rapid elevated-temperature 1 H– 13 C Heteronuclear Single-Quantum Coherence Zero (HSQC 0 ) NMR method that enables this precise quantification of native lignin structural characteristics even with whole plant cell wall (WPCW) NMR spectroscopy, overcoming fast spin relaxation in the gel phase. We also formulated a Gaussian fitting algorithm to perform automatic and reliable spectral integration. By combining HSQC 0 measurements with yield measurements following depolymerisation, we can confirm the combinatorial nature of radical coupling reactions during biosynthesis leading to a random sequential organization of linkages within a largely linear lignin chain. Such analyses illustrate how this analytical method can greatly facilitate the study of native lignin structure, which can then be used for fundamental studies or to understand lignin depolymerization methods like reductive catalytic fractionation or aldehyde-assisted fractionation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantification of Native Lignin Structural Features with Gel–Phase 2D–HSQC 0 Reveals Lignin Structural Changes During Extraction

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing 2‐Pyrone Synthase Efficiency by High‐Throughput Mass‐Spectrometric Quantification and In Vitro/In Vivo Catalytic Performance Correlation

Abstract Engineering efficient biocatalysts is essential for metabolic engineering to produce valuable bioproducts from renewable resources. However, due to the complexity of cellular metabolic networks, it is challenging to translate success in vitro into high performance in cells. To meet such a challenge, an accurate and efficient quantification method is necessary to screen a large set of mutants from complex cell culture and a careful correlation between the catalysis parameters in vitro and performance in cells is required. In this study, we employed a mass‐spectrometry based high‐throughput quantitative method to screen new mutants of 2‐pyrone synthase (2PS) for triacetic acid lactone (TAL) biosynthesis through directed evolution in E. coli . From the process, we discovered two mutants with the highest improvement (46 fold) in titer and the fastest k cat (44 fold) over the wild type 2PS, respectively, among those reported in the literature. A careful examination of the correlation between intracellular substrate concentration, Michaelis‐Menten parameters and TAL titer for these two mutants reveals that a fast reaction rate under limiting intracellular substrate concentrations is important for in‐cell biocatalysis. Such properties can be tuned by protein engineering and synthetic biology to adopt these engineered proteins for the maximum activities in different intracellular environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

In Situ Optical Quantification of Extracellular Electron Transfer Using Plasmonic Metal Oxide Nanocrystals**

Extracellular electron transfer (EET) is a critical form of microbial metabolism that enables respiration on a variety of inorganic substrates, including metal oxides. However, quantifying current generated by electroactive bacteria has been predominately limited to biofilms formed on electrodes. To address this, we developed a platform for quantifying EET flux from cell suspensions using aqueous dispersions of infrared plasmonic tin-doped indium oxide nanocrystals. Furthermore, tracking the change in optical extinction during electron transfer enabled quantification of current generated by planktonic Shewanella oneidensis cultures. Using this method, we differentiated between starved and actively respiring cells, cells of varying genotype, and cells engineered to differentially express a key EET gene using an inducible genetic circuit. Overall, our results validate the utility of colloidally stable plasmonic metal oxide nanocrystals as quantitative biosensors in aqueous environments and contribute to a fundamental understanding of planktonic S. oneidensis electrophysiology using simple in situ spectroscopy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Demonstration of no catalytical activity of Fe–N–C and Nb–N–C electrocatalysts toward nitrogen reduction using in–line quantification

Ammonia (NH 3 ) production via the electrochemical nitrogen reduction reaction (NRR) is a promising method for sustainable generation of this important chemical. Efforts are ongoing in finding an efficient, stable, and selective catalyst that will enable the reaction. However, progress is hindered in the field due to lack of reproducibility, most likely a consequence of reports of false-positive results due to improper measurement control and methods. In this study, we explore the NRR activity of a promising class of single atom catalysts, transition metal-nitrogen-carbon (M-N-C) electrocatalysts. Using a state-of-the-art in-line ammonia quantification methodology, with detection limit as low as 1 ppb for ammonia, we show that single atom Nb and Fe embedded in a stable carbon and nitrogen framework do not electrochemically reduce N 2 to NH 3 . Critically, this demonstrates that our experimental setup with in-line sequential injection analysis successfully excludes ammonia contamination from the gas supply and atmospheric sources, allowing for thorough and high-throughput examination of potential NRR catalysts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

CALPHAD Uncertainty Quantification and TDBX

CALPHAD uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the foundation of materials design with quantified confidence. We report a framework and software packages to enable CALPHAD UQ assessment and calculation using commercial CALPHAD software (Thermo-Calc). This Bayesian inference framework is coupled with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to establish uncertainty traces with a given thermodynamic database file (TDB) and corresponding experimental data points. This general framework is demonstrated with the Ni–Cr binary system. The algorithm is firstly validated on synthetic data with known ground truth. Then it is applied to real experimental data to generate posterior traces. We develop a file format named TDBX, which provides a single source of truth by combining the original TDB content and the traces for each assessed Gibbs energy parameter. CALPHAD UQ calculations are performed based on the TDBX file, from which uncertainties for phase boundaries, enthalpy curves, and solidification range are collected as examples of basic design parameters. This TDBX file with corresponding scripts are made open-source. Finally, the combination of CALPHAD UQ assessments and calculations connected by TDBX supports uncertainty-assisted modeling, enabling the integrated application of modern design with uncertainty methodologies to computational materials design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty Quantification of Machine Learning Predicted Creep Property of Alumina-Forming Austenitic Alloys

The development of machine learning (ML) approaches in materials science offers the opportunity to exploit existing engineering and developmental alloy datasets, such as Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)’s consistently measured creep-rupture dataset for alumina-forming austenitic (AFA) alloys, to accelerate their further development. As a first step toward achieving ML insights for improved alloy design, the potential sources of uncertainty and their impacts on ML output are examined. It is observed that the selection of algorithms and features as well as data sampling significantly affects the performance of ML models, either positively or negatively. Further, the performance of various ML models in predicting the creep properties of AFA alloys is compared, with further evaluation by assessment of a small set of new developmental AFA alloys that were not part of the training dataset. The present study demonstrates that uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential in materials science for evaluating the performance of ML algorithms with specifically selected feature sets and obtaining a comprehensive understanding of their limitations and the resultant capability of effective prediction in complex materials systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multimodal 3D quantification of particle stimulated nucleation in industrially manufactured aluminium AA5182 sheet

Particle stimulated nucleation is a dominant recrystallisation mechanism observed in many industrially relevant aluminium alloys during thermomechanical processing. Here, in this work, we quantify particle stimulated nucleation in 3D in an aluminium AA5182 alloy sheet cold-rolled to 75% thickness reduction. Second phase particles and nuclei are mapped in the same sample volume by conventional laboratory absorption X-ray tomography and synchrotron X-ray Laue micro-diffraction. The large second phase particles are classified as Fe- and Mg-rich phases. It is found that 84% of the nuclei are particle stimulated and 40% of the particles stimulate nucleation. The critical particle diameter is found to be 4 μm. Deviatoric elastic strains are derived from micro-diffraction data and it is found that elastic strains are present in the recrystallised nuclei. The effects of the different particle types, particle clustering, particle size and aspect ratio as well as strain inheritance are discussed. This work provides a full 3D quantification of particle stimulated nucleation behaviour in AA5182 alloy sheet deformed to high strain.

Deviatoric strain↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic Optimization and Uncertainty Quantification of Natrium-based Nuclear-Renewable Energy Systems for Flexible Power Applications in Deregulated Markets

Rapid integration of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) has made modeling and stochastic optimization of hybrid energy systems crucial for studying their long-term performance and viability. However, most studies have focused on just historical data, which may be unreliable for capturing short-term fluctuations, rare events, and long-term patterns of energy demand, price, and the variability of renewable energy sources. For this study, optimal synthetic time series models were developed using Wasserstein distance. The models were validated by comparing the key statistical measures against those of the historical data. They were then used to optimize the integrated Natrium-style advanced energy systems and their long-term (30 years) economics. The stochastic model performs bi-level optimization to find the optimal sizes for the balance of plant and thermal energy storage, while also optimizing energy dispatch to achieve the maximum net present value. In studies of two deregulated markets (California ISO and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas), the integrated Natrium-style system performed better in CAISO than in ERCOT, given higher and more consistent electricity prices during peak-demand periods. The potentially enlarged cost associated with the variable operation and maintenance of the TES system also plays a significant role in driving the system sizing, thus its impacts on the system are investigated in detail through comparison against a baseline case. The study also finds that the bi-level optimization results based on stochastic gradient descent closely match the grid search results. The uncertainty quantification of the stochastic signals provides further NPV-related insights and probability distributions for the case studies. The normal standard error of the mean of NPV for the case with and without TES VOM for CAISO were found to be 7.73M (plus-minus sign) 1.09M USD and 104.99M (plus-minus sign) 1.25M USD, respectively based on a 95% confidence. Given the relatively small NPV variance based on 150 samples, the analysis affords the most robust possible prediction of the techno-economic performance of the integrated Natrium-style energy systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗